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USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv↗
USGS2026

3D semantic mapping of surface geological features

Semantic mapping in 3D is fundamental to a wide range of geoscientific studies and applications, including geomorphology, hazard assessment, and environmental monitoring. However, automatically segmenting geological features from large-scale photogrammetric datasets remains a significant challenge. We present a methodology to address this gap. Using overlapping images collected over environments of interest, Structure-from-Motion (SfM) produces georeferenced point clouds and estimates camera poses. Existing large vision models, such as Segment Anything Model, segment objects in the images, generating pixel-segmentation associations. To produce pixel-point associations, we project the points back onto the camera image planes. As objects are independently segmented across multiple images with different perspectives, we develop a segmentation mosaicking algorithm to build probabilistic point-segmentation associations that combines the pixel-segmentation associations and pixel-point associations. Our methodology is validated using both synthetic data generated by Kubric and real-world UAV-SfM data. The implementation is designed to be compatible with existing SfM software, including Agisoft and OpenDroneMap, for photogrammetry mapping in geoscience studies. As a case study, we apply our method to the semantic mapping of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs), which provide upper-bound constraints on historical ground motion shaking intensity. To support object-level identification of PBRs, we additionally integrated Grounding DINO, enabling text-prompted segmentation of features of interest within UAV imagery. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of our method in generating a 3D semantic map of PBRs, enabling spatial distribution of PBR fragility for earthquake hazard analysis.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia↗
USGS2025

Statistical approaches for modeling correlated grade and tonnage distributions and applications for mineral resource assessments

Correlations between grade and tonnage exist in mineral resource data compiled from published reports, but they are not always addressed during quantitative assessment of undiscovered mineral resources. Failure to account for correlated grade and tonnage distributions can result in geologically unrealistic assessment results. Current software tools simulate univariate ore tonnage and multivariate resource grades of undiscovered deposits independently. As a result, analysts are forced to rely on ad-hoc solutions to minimize the correlation issues by: 1) creating subsets of data with restricted criteria; 2) truncating grade and tonnage distributions; and 3) testing model robustness using exploratory data analysis. While these methods represent pragmatic solutions, the statistical solutions presented here provide additional options to address real correlations in grade and tonnage data used for mineral resource assessments. We present a modified version of the MapMark4 package in R that introduces two alternatives for modeling grade and tonnage distributions, consisting of a multivariate solution that accounts for correlations between ore tonnage and metal grades and an empirical solution that utilizes simple random sampling with replacement to reproduce coupled grades and tonnages from the input data. We present simulations for contained ore and metal for three case studies representing tungsten skarn, komatiite-hosted nickel, and sediment-hosted carbonate amagmatic zinc-lead (Mississippi Valley-type) deposits. Employing the methods presented here yields quantitative mineral resource assessment results that more closely reflect the empirical distributions of grades and tonnages observed in nature and expands the applicability of these tools for ongoing critical mineral resource assessments.

Applied Computing and Geosciences↗
USGS2026

Localization of spatiotemporally heterogeneous subsurface flows using autoencoder-based deep learning framework for time-lapse self-potential tomography

Self-potential (SP) monitoring has emerged as a valuable method for characterizing subsurface hydrogeological features and processes due to its sensitivity to fluid-induced electrokinetic effects. Despite advancements in SP inversion, challenges remain in imaging groundwater dynamics from SP activities due to complex hydrological settings and transient noise. In this study, a deep learning autoencoder (AE)-based framework is proposed for the spatiotemporal localization of subsurface fluid movement from time-lapse SP tomography. Temporal segments of time-lapse numerical inversions were first derived from long-term SP monitoring conducted from a floodplain site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, known for active hyporheic exchange. Subsequently, AE models based on vision transformer (ViT), convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM), convolutional neural network, and temporal convolutional network were individually trained and compared on the SP tomography segments for reconstruction performance. Finally, the reconstruction error over time serves as an anomaly score to identify moments of active SP variation, whereas spatial distributions of errors within these moments are analyzed to image and localize regions associated with anomalous subsurface fluid movement. The results demonstrate that ConvLSTM- and ViT-AE are most capable for the localization task with contrasting error distributions and consistent delineation of anomalies. Applying the method to both SP arrays parallel and perpendicular to the stream produced consistent anomaly zones near a fault or karst feature, validating the robustness and generalization of the approach. These results demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a scalable and interpretable tool for spatiotemporal analysis of subsurface flow dynamics in complex hydrogeological systems.

Tennessee↗
USGS1997

Application of acoustical methods for estimating water flow and constituent loads in Perdido Bay, Florida

Water flow and quality data were collected from December 1994 to September 1995 to evaluate variations in discharge, water quality, and chemical fluxes (loads) through Perdido Bay, Florida. Data were collected at a cross section parallel to the U.S. Highway 98 bridge. Discharges measured with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and computed from stage-area and velocity ratings varied roughly between + or - 10,000 cubic feet per second during a typical tidal cycle. Large reversals in flow direction occurred rapidly (less than 1 hour), and complete reversals (resulting in near peak net-upstream or downstream discharges) occurred within a few hours of slack water. Observations of simultaneous upstream and downstream flow (bidirectional flow) were quite common in the ADCP measurements, with opposing directions of flow occurring predominantly in vertical layers. Continuous (every 15 minutes) discharge data were computed for the period from August 18, 1995, to September 28, 1995, and filtered daily mean discharge values were computed for the period from August 19 to September 26, 1995. Data were not computed prior to August 18, 1995, either because of missing data or because the velocity rating was poorly defined (because of insufficient data) for the period prior to landfall of hurricane Erin (August 3, 1995). The results of the study indicate that acoustical techniques can yield useful estimates of continuous (instantaneous) discharge in Perdido Bay. Useful estimates of average daily net flow rates can also be obtained, but the accuracy of these estimates will be limited by small rating shifts that introduce bias into the instantaneous values that are used to compute the net flows. Instantaneous loads of total nitrogen ranged from -180 to 220 grams per second for the samples collected during the study, and instantaneous loads of total phosphorous ranged from -10 to 11 grams per second (negative loads indicate net upstream transport). The chloride concentrations from the water samples collected from Perdido Bay indicated a significant amount of mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Mixing effects could greatly reduce the accuracy of estimates of net loads of nutrients or other substances. The study results indicate that acoustical techniques can yield acceptable estimates of instantaneous loads in Perdido Bay. However, estimates of net loads should be interpreted with great caution and may have unacceptably large errors, especially when saltwater and freshwater concentrations differ greatly.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Bathymetric maps, surface areas, and storage capacities of Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, completed high-resolution multibeam bathymetric surveys to compute new elevation-area-capacity tables for Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma. Elevation-area-capacity tables identify the relation between the water-surface elevation, surface area, and storage capacity of the lake. The surface areas and storage capacities of each lake were computed from bathymetric surfaces combining multibeam echo sounder data collected in 2024 and light detection and ranging point-cloud data collected in 2016 and 2018.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS1999

Characterization of selected biological, chemical, and physical conditions at fixed sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Colorado, 1995-98

Biological community samples were collected at 15 sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) in Colorado as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Sites sampled in two physiographic provinces, the Southern Rocky Mountains and the Colorado Plateau, represented agriculture, mining, urban and recreation, and mixed land uses and background conditions. Nine measures of water quality, which include information on nutrients, specific conductance (a surrogate for salinity), trace elements in streambed sediment, pesticides in fish tissue, fish communities, and macroinvertebrate richness and composition and stream habitat were used for comparisons among sites within the two physiographic provinces. Sampling sites from three other NAWQA study units—the Rio Grande Valley, the South Platte River Basin, and the Upper Snake River Basin study units—were categorized on the basis of land use and stream size in order to develop a larger data set for comparison to sites in the UCOL. Three categories of land use—forested (includes mining, urban and recreation, and background), agriculture, and mixed—were used for comparison to the UCOL fixed sites. Results indicated that all sites other than the Colorado River below Baker Gulch (a background site) showed some water-quality characteristics to be significantly affected. Results indicated that the concentrations of cadmium and zinc in streambed sediment at mining land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province generally were orders of magnitude higher than streambed-sediment concentrations at the background site. Streambed-sediment concentrations at mining land-use sites in the UCOL were greater than the 75 th percentile of concentrations from sites in the three other NAWQA study units. Fish communities and habitat conditions were degraded at mining land-use sites compared to the background site. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness and the percentage of EPT were lower at mining land-use sites than at the background site and were less than the 50 th percentile of those for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Nutrient concentrations at urban and recreation sites in the Southern Rocky Mountain physiographic province generally were greater than concentrations at the background site and generally were between the 25 th and 90 th percentile of concentrations for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Habitat conditions and fish communities at urban and recreation sites were slightly degraded compared to the background site. EPT richness and the percentage of EPT were lower at urban and recreation sites than at the background site and were between the 25 th and 75 th percentile of those for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. The percentage of Chironomidae, which may be indicative of pollutant-tolerant organisms, was higher at urban and recreation sites than at the background site. Mixed land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province had similar nutrient concentrations and similar cadmium and zinc streambed-sediment concentrations. Fish-community degradation index values were very different among the three mixed land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province. Larger percentages of omnivores and anomalies such as lesions and deformities at two mixed land-use sites resulted in higher degradation values of the fish community. Agriculture land-use sites had higher concentrations of nutrients and selenium than the background site in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province. Concentrations of p,p '-DDE in fish tissue at agriculture sites were higher than the 75 th percentile of concentrations for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Fish communities had degradation values near the 75 th percentile for agriculture sites. The percentage of EPT was low at agriculture sites when compared to the background site. Two mixed land-use sites in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province had similar concentrations of nutrients, selenium, and p,p '-DDE, and similar EPT richness and composition. These two sites were located downstream from agricultural and urban activities. Some water-quality measures at these two sites indicated degradation compared to a mixed land-use site upstream from most of the agriculture and urban activities in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Simulated ground motion dataset in the Azores Plateau, Portugal, on rock and soil sites

Building on a previously developed bedrock dataset, this study extends the Azores Plateau ground motion simulations to include soil-amplified records and introduces a comprehensive validation framework. Soil amplification is modeled using one-dimensional soil profiles. A stochastic source-based approach is employed to generate the dataset, incorporating randomization of input-model parameters to account for the aleatory uncertainty in seismic activity. The accuracy of the dataset is verified through a comprehensive validation framework, showing that the randomization effectively captures variance and inter-period correlation observed in records. This work provides a robust dataset for advancing seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Azores Plateau.

central and eastern Azores islands↗
USGS2025

Multi-scale predictors of Northern Long-eared Bat (Myotis septentrionalis) occupancy in the United States

Historically, Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long eared Bat) was among the most common forest-interior species in North America. Largely due to high mortality from white-nose syndrome, this species has experienced severe population declines across its range. To create an updated species distribution map representing summer occupancy probabilities from 2017 to 2022, we integrated stationary acoustic data with live-capture data from the database of the North American Bat Monitoring Program into a multi-scale, multi-method occupancy modeling framework. Our results provide data-driven predictions with quantified uncertainty for summer occupancy probabilities for Northern Long-eared Bats at 2 spatial scales across the range of the species, while also accounting for inherent observation biases (e.g., imperfect detection).

Journal of North American Bat Research↗
USGS2026

Remote compositional analyses of space-weathered lunar maria

Visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) reflectance spectroscopy has revolutionized our understanding of planetary surface compositions. However, space-weathering processes on airless bodies complicate quantitative compositional analyses. Here, we present a framework to isolate the signatures of space weathering in VSWIR spectra of lunar maria by leveraging radiative transfer modeling under the assumptions that (i) a space-weathered target can be expressed as a mixture of fresh and fully space-weathered components and (ii) remaining signatures can be modeled by including agglutinates as an end-member component. We first validate this approach against laboratory spectra of space-weathered Apollo mare soils of known mineral compositions using a probabilistic Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation of the Hapke radiative transfer model. Second, we illustrate how this approach can be applied to orbital Moon Mineralogy Mapper data. The proposed space-weathering correction workflow for lunar maria could be expanded to other lunar lithologies and applied to existing and future data sets.

Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS1997

An optimized network for phosphorus load monitoring for Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Phosphorus load data were evaluated for Lake Okeechobee, Florida, for water years 1982 through 1991. Standard errors for load estimates were computed from available phosphorus concentration and daily discharge data. Components of error were associated with uncertainty in concentration and discharge data and were calculated for existing conditions and for 6 alternative load-monitoring scenarios for each of 48 distinct inflows. Benefit-cost ratios were computed for each alternative monitoring scenario at each site by dividing estimated reductions in load uncertainty by the 5-year average costs of each scenario in 1992 dollars. Absolute and marginal benefit-cost ratios were compared in an iterative optimization scheme to determine the most cost-effective combination of discharge and concentration monitoring scenarios for the lake. If the current (1992) discharge-monitoring network around the lake is maintained, the water-quality sampling at each inflow site twice each year is continued, and the nature of loading remains the same, the standard error of computed mean-annual load is estimated at about 98 metric tons per year compared to an absolute loading rate (inflows and outflows) of 530 metric tons per year. This produces a relative uncertainty of nearly 20 percent. The standard error in load can be reduced to about 20 metric tons per year (4 percent) by adopting an optimized set of monitoring alternatives at a cost of an additional $200,000 per year. The final optimized network prescribes changes to improve both concentration and discharge monitoring. These changes include the addition of intensive sampling with automatic samplers at 11 sites, the initiation of event-based sampling by observers at another 5 sites, the continuation of periodic sampling 12 times per year at 1 site, the installation of acoustic velocity meters to improve discharge gaging at 9 sites, and the improvement of a discharge rating at 1 site.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Prospectivity modeling of the NASA VIPER landing site at Mons Mouton near the Lunar South Pole

We use a high-resolution digital elevation model and a numerical thermal model to produce a variety of inputs for a water-ice prospectivity model for the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) landing site. These input data are maps of topography, surface slope, surface aspect, surface curvature, maximum temperature, depth to ice stability, permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), distance to PSRs, and PSR density. This model predicts where water ice is most likely within the top meter of regolith, assuming plausible relationships between ice concentration and the various inputs. The model is designed to be adjusted in near-real time as data are collected during the VIPER mission. As such, it is a tool for both analyzing data from the mission as well as planning operations. Since the current model, at this point, relies only on orbital remote sensing, the final version will also be a tool to extrapolate the VIPER mission results across the lunar poles.

Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS2026

Synthesizing a twelve-year sediment trap time series of planktic foraminiferal flux in the Gulf of America (Mexico)

Sediment trap time series provide powerful frameworks for testing hypotheses about planktic foraminiferal assemblage composition, seasonality, and geochemical responses to environmental variability, all of which are central to improving paleoceanographic reconstructions. We present high resolution foraminiferal assemblage data from a long-running sediment trap (2008–2020) in the northern Gulf of America (Mexico). This study summarizes the species composition, seasonality, and size distribution of the fifteen most abundant species of planktic foraminifera, which account for 98% of total flux. Foraminiferal flux peaks in winter and reaches a minimum in summer, following the seasonal pattern of primary production in the northern Gulf. Winter assemblages are dominated by non-spinose taxa, whereas spinose taxa prevail during summer. Across nearly all species, average monthly test size covaries with temperature, independent of seasonal flux trends. Notably, Trilobatus sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei show a significant decline in relative abundance and flux during 2017–2020, nearly disappearing from the assemblage.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗
USGS2025

National population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to earthquake-generated tsunami threats

Previous efforts to characterize tsunami threats to people have focused primarily on individual scenarios in specific areas but have not recognized multiple scenarios across an entire country. This study addresses this gap by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to 102 earthquake-related, tsunami-hazard zones, including 92 local scenarios, 8 distant scenarios, and 2 probabilistic products. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential and the influence of departure delays. We focused on residents to support other national, multi-hazard risk analyses. Millions of residents are in distant-tsunami zones, and hundreds of thousands of residents are in local-tsunami zones. In 41 scenarios, there is at least one resident that may have insufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Tens of thousands of residents may have insufficient time to evacuate from local tsunamis that impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Puerto Rican coastlines. The largest improvements in evacuation potential may come from reducing departure delays in some areas but may involve vertical-evacuation structures or changing land use in other areas.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2024

Self-guided decision support groundwater modelling with Python

The GMDSI tutorial notebooks repository provides learners with a comprehensive set of tutorials for self-guided training on decision-support groundwater modelling using Python-based tools. Although targeted at groundwater modelling, they are based around model-agnostic tools and readily transferable to other environmental modelling workflows. The tutorials are divided into three parts. The first covers fundamental theoretical concepts. These are intended as background reading for reference on an as-needed basis. Tutorials in the second part introduce learners to some of the core concepts parameter estimation in a groundwater modelling context, as well as providing a gentle introduction to the PEST, PEST++ and pyEMU software. Lastly, the third part demonstrates how to implement highly-parameterized applied decision-support modelling workflows. The tutorials aim to provide examples of both “how to use” the software as well as “how to think” about using the software. A key advantage to using notebooks in this context is that the workflows described run the same code as practitioners would run on a large-scale real- world application. Using a small synthetic model facilitates rapid progression through the workflow.

Journal of Open Source Education↗
USGS2025

Using probability difference to compare streamflow information of alternatives for efficient operation of monitoring networks

Efficient operation of streamflow monitoring networks requires investments in technology and labor that provide the greatest benefits from available resources. Economic analyses comparing the costs and benefits from different types of alternatives for monitoring have not been practical to implement. Streamflow information provides a generic measure of benefits that can be incorporated into operational decisions as an objective for monitoring networks. A methodology for comparing how accuracy, monitoring period, and monitoring instead of modeling affects streamflow information is developed from information-theoretic approaches for network design but contributes three novel features: (1) a probability-difference model for conditional probability of monotonically paired variables, (2) explicit discounting of unverified information that may exceed the accuracy of streamflow records, and (3) run analysis to account for non-stationarity in streamflow probabilities. Application of the methodology to the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow monitoring network indicates the value of monitoring period to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow probabilities and, thus, increase streamflow information. The methodology has important limitations, particularly for sites with non-perennial streamflow, but demonstrates that probability difference could be used to evaluate operational alternatives to increase the efficiency of monitoring networks.

PLOS Water↗