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USGS2015

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2002

Comparison of subyearling fall chinook salmon's use of riprap revetments and unaltered habitats in Lake Wallula of the Columbia river

Subyearling fall chinook salmon's Oncorhynchus tshawytscha use of unaltered and riprap habitats in Lake Wallula of the Columbia River was determined with point abundance data collected by electrofishing in May 1994 and 1995. We documented the presence or absence of subyearlings at 277 sample sites and collected physical habitat information at each site. Based on logistic regression, we found that the probability of fish presence was greater in unaltered shoreline habitats than in riprap habitats. Substrate size was the most important factor in determining fish presence, with dominant substrates larger than 256 mm having the lowest probability of fish presence. Water velocity, also included in our model due to its biological importance, was not a significant factor affecting presence or absence (P = 0.1102). The correct prediction rate of fish presence or absence in our sample sites using cross validation was 67%. Our model showed that substrate was the most important factor determining subyearling habitat use, but the model did not include other habitat variables known to be important to subyearlings in more diverse systems. We suggest that resource managers consider alternative methods of bank stabilization that are compatible with the habitat requirements of the fish that use them.

Washington↗

USGS2007

TiO 2 as a photocatalyst for control of the aquatic invasive alga, Cladophora, under natural and artificial light

Cladophora, a nuisance and invasive, filamentous algae (Chlorophyta), massively accumulates along the shores of the lower Great Lakes each summer causing great economic damage and compromising recreational opportunity and perhaps public health. In vitro experiments showed that Cladophora samples were physically and biologically degraded when subjected to TiO 2 -mediated photocatalysis. For the most successful photocatalytic process, TiO 2 was immobilized on a glass surface and used in combination with either sunlight or artificial UV light. The loss of vital algal pigments was monitored using UV–vis spectrophotometry, and cell structural changes were determined by microscopic observation. Cladophora, in the presence of TiO 2 -covered glass beads, experienced a loss of chloroplast pigments after 2 h of UV lamp light irradiation. In a separate experiment, sunlight exposure over 4 days (&sim;24 h) resulted in the complete oxidative degradation of the green chloroplast pigments, verified by the UV spectra of the algal extracts. These results suggest that TiO 2 , mobilized on sunlit silicates may be useful in controlling growth and survival of this alga in the Great Lakes, thus mitigating many of the economic, aesthetic ecological impacts of this invasive alga.

Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology A: Chem↗

USGS2002

Prioritizing conservation potential of arid-land montane natural springs and associated riparian areas

Using inventory data and input from natural resource professionals, we developed a classification system that categorizes conservation potential for montane natural springs. This system contains 18 classes based on the presence of a riparian patch, wetland species, surface water, and evidence of human activity. We measured physical and biological components of 276 montane springs in the Oscura Mountains above 1450 m and the San Andres Mountains above 1300 m in southern New Mexico. Two of the 18 classes were not represented during the inventory, indicating the system applies to conditions beyond the montane springs in our study area. The class type observed most often (73 springs) had a riparian patch, perennial surface water, and human evidence. We assessed our system in relation to 13 other wetland and riparian classification systems regarding approach, area of applicability, intended users, validation, ease of use, and examination of system response. Our classification can be used to rapidly assess priority of conservation potential for isolated riparian sites, especially springs, in arid landscapes. We recommend (1) including this classification in conservation planning, (2) removing deleterious structures from high-priority sites, and (3) assessing efficiency and use of this classification scheme elsewhere. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2012

Structure of marine predator and prey communities along environmental gradients in a glaciated fjord

Spatial patterns of marine predator communities are influenced to varying degrees by prey distribution and environmental gradients. We examined physical and biological attributes of an estuarine fjord with strong glacier influence to determine the factors that most influence the structure of predator and prey communities. Our results suggest that some species, such as walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma ), black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ), and glaucous-winged gull ( Larus glaucescens ), were widely distributed across environmental gradients, indicating less specialization, whereas species such as capelin ( Mallotus villosus ), harbor seal ( Phoca vitulina ), and Kittlitz's murrelet ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ) appeared to have more specialized habitat requirements related to glacial influence. We found that upper trophic level communities were well correlated with their mid trophic level prey community, but strong physical gradients in photic depth, temperature, and nutrients played an important role in community structure as well. Mid-trophic level forage fish communities were correlated with the physical gradients more closely than upper trophic levels were, and they showed strong affinity to tidewater glaciers. Silica was closely correlated with the distribution of fish communities, the mechanisms of which deserve further study.

Alaska↗

USGS1998

Instability of development and fractal architecture in dryland plants as an index of grazing pressure

Developmental instability has been used to monitor the well-being of natural populations exposed to physical, chemical and biological stressors. Here, we use developmental instability to assess the impact of grazing on Chrysothamnus greenii and Seriphidium novum shrubs, and Oryzopsis hymenoides grass, common in the arid intermountain west of the U.S.A. Statistical noise in allometric relations was used as an indicator of developmental instability arising from grazing-induced stress. Unpalatable species that are not grazed ( Chrysothamnus greenii ) or species that are dormant during the winter–spring grazing period ( Oryzopsis hymenoides ) show lower allometric variability under high grazing pressure. Palatable species ( Seriphidium novum ) exhibit high developmental instability under low and high grazing pressure. Grazing pressure imposed by presumably co-adapted wild herbivores enhances developmental stability in species habituated to moderate grazing, like Oryzopsis hymenoides , but stresses plants such as Chrysothamnus greenii that prefer disturbed environments. These grazing effects are probably due to the impact grazing has on competitive relationships and not to the direct action of the herbivore on the plants.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2019

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California↗

USGS1993

Coupled effects of vertical mixing and benthic grazing on phytoplankton populations in shallow, turbid estuaries

Coastal ocean waters tend to have very different patterns of phytoplankton biomass variability from the open ocean, and the connections between physical variability and phytoplankton bloom dynamics are less well established for these shallow systems. Predictions of biological responses to physical variability in these environments is inherently difficult because the recurrent seasonal patterns of mixing are complicated by aperiodic fluctuations in river discharge and the high-frequency components of tidal variability. We might expect, then, less predictable and more complex bloom dynamics in these shallow coastal systems compared with the open ocean. Given this complex and dynamic physical environment, can we develop a quantitative framework to define the physical regimes necessary for bloom inception, and can we identify the important mechanisms of physical-biological coupling that lead to the initiation and termination of blooms in estuaries and shallow coastal waters? Numerical modeling provides one approach to address these questions. Here we present results of simulation experiments with a refined version of Cloern's (1991) model in which mixing processes are treated more realistically to reflect the dynamic nature of turbulence generation in estuaries. We investigated several simple models for the turbulent mixing coefficient. We found that the addition of diurnal tidal variation to Cloern's model greatly reduces biomass growth indicating that variations of mixing on the time scale of hours are crucial. Furthermore, we found that for conditions representative of South San Francisco Bay, numerical simulations only allowed for bloom development when the water column was stratified and when minimal mixing was prescribed in the upper layer. Stratification, however, itself is not sufficient to ensure that a bloom will develop: minimal wind stirring is a further prerequisite to bloom development in shallow turbid estuaries with abundant populations of benthic suspension feeders.

Journal of Marine Research↗

USGS2010

Quantifying restoration success and recovery in a metal-polluted stream: A 17-year assessment of physicochemical and biological responses

Evaluating the effectiveness of stream restoration is often challenging because of the lack of pre-treatment data, narrow focus on physicochemical measures and insufficient post-restoration monitoring. Even when these fundamental elements are present, quantifying restoration success is difficult because of the challenges associated with distinguishing treatment effects from seasonal variation, episodic events and long-term climatic changes.2. We report results of one of the most comprehensive and continuous records of physical, chemical and biological data available to assess restoration success for a stream ecosystem in North America. Over a 17 year period we measured seasonal and annual changes in metal concentrations, physicochemical characteristics, macroinvertebrate communities, and brown trout Salmo trutta populations in the Arkansas River, a metal-contaminated stream in Colorado, USA.3. Although we observed significant improvements in water quality after treatment, the effectiveness of restoration varied temporally, spatially and among biological response variables. The fastest recovery was observed at stations where restoration eliminated point sources of metal contamination. Recovery of macroinvertebrates was significantly delayed at some stations because of residual sediment contamination and because extreme seasonal and episodic variation in metal concentrations prevented recolonization by sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Because recovery trajectories after the removal of a stressor are often complex or nonlinear, long-term studies are necessary to assess restoration success within the context of episodic events and changes in regional climate. The observed variation in recovery among chemical and biological endpoints highlights the importance of developing objective criteria to assess restoration success. Although the rapid response of macroinvertebrates to reduced metal concentrations is encouraging, we have previously demonstrated that benthic communities from the Arkansas River remained susceptible to other novel anthropogenic stressors. We suggest that the resistance or resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to novel stressors may be effective indicators of restoration success that can account for the non-additive (e.g. synergistic) nature of compound perturbations. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Assessment of potential recovery viability for Colorado Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Colorado Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius, the Colorado River’s top native predatory fish, was historically distributed from the Gulf of California delta to the upper reaches of the Green, Colorado, and San Juan rivers in the Colorado River basin in the Southwestern US. In recent decades Colorado Pikeminnow population abundance has declined, primarily due to predation by warmwater nonnative fish and habitat modification following dam construction. Small, reproducing populations remain in the Green and upper Colorado rivers, but their current population trajectory is declining and the San Juan River population is maintained primarily through stocking. As such, establishment of an additional population could aid recovery efforts and increase the species’ resilience and population redundancy. The Colorado River in Grand Canyon once supported Colorado Pikeminnow, but until recently habitat suitability in this altered reach was considered low due to a depressed thermal regime and abundant nonnative predators. Climate change and ongoing drought has presented an opportunity to evaluate the feasibility of native fish restoration in a system where declining reservoir storage has led to warmer releases and re-emergence of riverine habitat. These changes in the physical attributes of the river have occurred in concert with a system-wide decline in nonnative predators. Conditions ten years ago were not compatible with reintroduction feasibility in Grand Canyon; however, due to rapidly changing conditions an expert Science Panel was convened to evaluate whether the physical and biological attributes of this reach could now support various life stages of Colorado Pikeminnow. Here, we report on the evaluation process and outcome from the Science Panel, which developed a science-based recommendation to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on reintroduction feasibility. The Science Panel concluded that current habitat attributes in Grand Canyon could satisfy some, but perhaps not all, Colorado Pikeminnow life history requirements. This reach has the potential to support adult and sub-adult growth, foraging, migrations, and spawning, but low juvenile survival may limit recruitment. However, populations of other native species are successfully reproducing and increasing in western Grand Canyon, even in areas once considered suboptimal habitat. Should managers decide to move to the next phase of this process, actions such as experimental stocking and monitoring, telemetry studies, bioenergetics modeling, and laboratory-based research may provide additional information to further evaluate a potential reintroduction effort in this rapidly changing but highly altered system.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Challenges in linking soil health to edge-of-field water quality across the Great Lakes basin

To better understand agricultural nutrient losses, we evaluated relationships between management (e.g., manure and tillage), soil health measurements, and resulting edge-of-field (EOF) surface water quality. This work was conducted before or early into conservation implementation at 14 Great Lakes Restoration Initiative EOF sites spanning Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and New York. Analyses of site characteristics (hydroclimate, management, catchment properties) along with 3 yr of soil health measurements (chemical, biological, and physical properties) showed EOF-nutrient export depended on both site and soil properties. A pattern emerged whereby sites not receiving manure and sites with manure defined opposite ends of several gradients for soil and water data. Sites receiving manure had increased microbial activity, organic matter (3.2 vs. 2.7%), and soil test phosphorus (P) (2.8 times more) relative to sites without manure. Suspended sediments (SS), total P (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) in EOF surface runoff varied over three to five orders. Multivariate analysis among sites showed covariant linkages between soil nutrients, soil C, microbial properties, and nutrients in EOF water. There were positive univariate relationships between water-extractable soil P and annual EOF-water concentrations and yields of orthophosphate, TP, TN, and SS ( p < .01). Some soil physical properties (e.g., bulk density and infiltration) also covaried among sites but were not consistently related to runoff index or water yield variables. Given the observed among-site variability, we were not able to isolate desirable soil health signals on EOF surface water quality.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2016

Environmental covariates associated with Cambarus veteranus (Decapoda: Cambaridae), an imperiled Appalachian crayfish endemic to West Virginia, USA

Cambarus veteranus Faxon, 1914 , a narrow endemic crayfish native to the Upper Guyandotte River Basin (UGB) in West Virginia, USA, was petitioned in 2014 by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to be listed as endangered, but a status survey was recommended to determine if listing was warranted. During May and June 2015, surveys were undertaken across the UGB to determine the current distribution of the species. A total of 71 sites were sampled, including all streams where the species was previously recorded, as well as semi-randomly selected streams, with 1-9 125 m long sites sampled per wadeable stream. Physiochemical and physical habitat data (based on the Qualitative Habitat Evaluation Index, QHEI) were obtained at each site to determine abiotic factors that were associated with the presence of C. veteranus . Site detection or non-detection of C. veteranus and associated site covariates were modeled using logistic regression to determine covariates associated with the presence of the species. Cambarus veteranus was present in both the Pinnacle Creek and Clear Fork/Laurel Fork watersheds at 10 sites, but it was not observed in the remaining 61 sites. An additive effects model with conductivity and QHEI was selected as the best approximating model. Cambarus veteranus was associated with lower than average UGB conductivity (379 µS) and high (>80) QHEI score. All sites where C. veteranus was not detected had higher conductivity and/or lower QHEI scores.

West Virginia↗

USGS2004

Spatial patterns in assemblage structures of pelagic forage fish and zooplankton in western Lake Superior

We assessed abundance, size, and species composition of forage fish and zooplankton communities of western Lake Superior during August 1996 and July 1997. Data were analyzed for three ecoregions (Duluth-Superior, Apostle Islands, and the open lake) differing in bathymetry and limnological and biological patterns. Zooplankton abundance was three times higher in the Duluth-Superior and Apostle Islands regions than in the open lake due to the large numbers of rotifers. Copepods were far more abundant than Cladocera in all ecoregions. Mean zooplankton size was larger in the open lake due to dominance by large calanoid copepods although size of individual taxa was similar among ecoregions. Forage fish abundance and biomass was highest in the Apostle Islands region and lowest in the open lake ecoregion. Lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ), rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) and deepwater ciscoes ( Coregonus spp.) comprised over 90% of the abundance and biomass of fishes caught in midwater trawls and recorded with hydroacoustics. Growth and condition of fish was good, suggesting they were not resource limited. Fish and zooplankton assemblages differed among the three ecoregions of western Lake Superior, due to a combination of physical and limnological factors related to bathymetry and landscape position.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS1988

Monitoring wildlife habitat: A critique of approaches

Naturalists have long recognized that wildlife cannot exist in a natural state without adequate habitat. Habitat monitoring is an effort to monitor the physical conditions that provide life support for the species, given the underlying assumption that if the habitat is available the species will respond and fill that habitat with viable populations. Techniques for habitat monitoring are varied and depend on the species involved, geographical area, and resources available. At a very gross level, habitat monitoring may be little more than the monitoring of major vegetative associations: time series analysis of aerial photography is an excellent mechanism to monitor the changes in hectares of specified vegetative associations, which are surrogate measures of habitat. One approach uses population monitoring to determine habitat availability. Unfortunately, many researchers fail to recognize that population levels may or may not reflect habitat quality or habitat availability. Another approach is to monitor species richness or species diversity. Finally, the habitat components that compose quality habitat for a species or species group can be used for monitoring. This approach results in the identification of important habitat attributes that can be measured independent of the presence of the species. A thorough understanding of the biological system being monitored is paramount to the development of sound monitoring study design.

Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE↗

USGS2012

Effects of river regulation on aeolian landscapes, Colorado River, southwestern USA

Connectivity between fluvial and aeolian sedimentary systems plays an important role in the physical and biological environment of dryland regions. This study examines the coupling between fluvial sand deposits and aeolian dune fields in bedrock canyons of the arid to semiarid Colorado River corridor, southwestern USA. By quantifying significant differences between aeolian landscapes with and without modern fluvial sediment sources, this work demonstrates for the first time that the flow- and sediment-limiting effects of dam operations affect sedimentary processes and ecosystems in aeolian landscapes above the fluvial high water line. Dune fields decoupled from fluvial sand supply have more ground cover (biologic crust and vegetation) and less aeolian sand transport than do dune fields that remain coupled to modern fluvial sand supply. The proportion of active aeolian sand area also is substantially lower in a heavily regulated river reach (Marble–Grand Canyon, Arizona) than in a much less regulated reach with otherwise similar environmental conditions (Cataract Canyon, Utah). The interconnections shown here among river flow and sediment, aeolian sand transport, and biologic communities in aeolian dunes demonstrate a newly recognized means by which anthropogenic influence alters dryland environments. Because fluvial–aeolian coupling is common globally, it is likely that similar sediment-transport connectivity and interaction with upland ecosystems are important in other dryland regions to a greater degree than has been recognized previously.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Hydroecological condition and potential for aquaculture in lakes of the arid region of Khorezm, Uzbekistan

With >400 small (<1 ha) lakes, the arid Khorezm Province in Uzbekistan may be well-suited for aquaculture production. Developing water resources to provide a local food supply could increase fish consumption while improving the rural economy. Hydroecological (biological and physical) and chemical characteristics (including legacy pesticides ΣDDT and ΣHCH) of four representative drainage lakes in Khorezm from 2006 to 2008 were analyzed for the lakes’ capability to support healthy fish populations. Lake characteristics were categorized as “optimal” (having little or no effect on growth and development), “tolerable” (corresponding to chronic or sub-lethal toxicity) and “lethal” (corresponding to acute toxicity). Results indicate that three lakes are likely well-suited for raising fish species, with water quality meeting World Bank aquaculture guidelines. However, the fourth lake often had salinity concentrations > optimal levels for local fish species. Pesticide concentrations in water of all four lakes were within tolerable aquaculture ranges. Although water ΣDDT concentrations were >optimal limits, results from chemical analysis of fish tissues and semi-permeable membrane devices indicated that study lake ΣDDT concentrations were not accumulating in fish or posing a human health threat. Land and water management to maintain adequate lake water quality are imperative for sustaining fish populations for human consumption.

Khorezm↗

USGS2011

Comparative health assessment of western Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) foraging off the coast of California, 2005-2007

Leatherback turtles ( Dermochelys coriacea ) are critically endangered, primarily threatened by the overharvesting of eggs, fisheries entanglement, and coastal development. The Pacific leatherback population has experienced a catastrophic decline over the past two decades. Leatherbacks foraging off the coast of California are part of a distinct Western Pacific breeding stock that nests on beaches in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands. Although it has been proposed that the rapid decline of Pacific leatherback turtles is due to increased adult mortality, little is known about the health of this population. Health assessments in leatherbacks have examined females on nesting beaches, which provides valuable biological information, but might have limited applicability to the population as a whole. During September 2005 and 2007, we conducted physical examinations on 19 foraging Pacific leatherback turtles and measured normal physiologic parameters, baseline hematologic and plasma biochemistry values, and exposure to heavy metals (cadmium, lead, and mercury), organochlorine contaminants, and domoic acid. We compared hematologic values of foraging Pacific leatherbacks with their nesting counterparts in Papua New Guinea ( n =11) and with other nesting populations in the Eastern Pacific in Costa Rica ( n =8) and in the Atlantic in St. Croix ( n =12). This study provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the health status of leatherbacks in the Pacific. We found significant differences in blood values between foraging and nesting leatherbacks, which suggests that health assessment studies conducted only on nesting females might not accurately represent the whole population. The establishment of baseline physiologic data and blood values for healthy foraging leatherback turtles, including males, provides valuable data for long-term health monitoring and comparative studies of this endangered population.

California↗