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USGS2016

An integrated moral obligation model for landowner conservation norms

This study applies an integrated moral obligation model to examine the role of environmental and cultural values, and beliefs in the activation of landowner conservation norms. Data for this study were collected through a self-administered survey of riparian landowners in two Minnesota watersheds: Sand Creek and Vermillion River watersheds. Study findings suggest that collectivistic and biospheric–altruistic values form the bases for the activation of personal norms. Further, beliefs about local responsibility and ability to act influence personal norms to protect water resources. Findings suggest that landowners’ personal norms of water conservation are more likely to be activated by conservation strategies that appeal to biospheric–altruistic and collectivistic values, emphasize adverse consequences of water pollution, highlight water resource protection as a local responsibility, and provide the resources needed to protect water resources.

Society & Natural Resources: An International Jour↗

USGSDate not supplied

Characterizing the interface between wild ducks and poultry to evaluate the potential of transmission of avian pathogens

Background Characterizing the interface between wild and domestic animal populations is increasingly recognized as essential in the context of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that are transmitted by wildlife. More specifically, the spatial and temporal distribution of contact rates between wild and domestic hosts is a key parameter for modeling EIDs transmission dynamics. We integrated satellite telemetry, remote sensing and ground-based surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of indirect contacts between wild and domestic birds to estimate the risk that avian pathogens such as avian influenza and Newcastle viruses will be transmitted between wildlife to poultry. We monitored comb ducks ( Sarkidiornis melanotos melanotos ) with satellite transmitters for seven months in an extensive Afro-tropical wetland (the Inner Niger Delta) in Mali and characterise the spatial distribution of backyard poultry in villages. We modelled the spatial distribution of wild ducks using 250-meter spatial resolution and 8-days temporal resolution remotely-sensed environmental indicators based on a Maxent niche modelling method. Results Our results show a strong seasonal variation in potential contact rate between wild ducks and poultry. We found that the exposure of poultry to wild birds was greatest at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season, when comb ducks disperse from natural water bodies to irrigated areas near villages. Conclusions Our study provides at a local scale a quantitative evidence of the seasonal variability of contact rate between wild and domestic bird populations. It illustrates a GIS-based methodology for estimating epidemiological contact rates at the wildlife and livestock interface integrating high-resolution satellite telemetry and remote sensing data.

Inner Niger Delta↗

USGS2010

A spatial regression procedure for evaluating the relationship between AVHRR-NDVI and climate in the northern Great Plains

The relationship between vegetation and climate in the grassland and cropland of the northern US Great Plains was investigated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1989–1993) images derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and climate data from automated weather stations. The relationship was quantified using a spatial regression technique that adjusts for spatial autocorrelation inherent in these data. Conventional regression techniques used frequently in previous studies are not adequate, because they are based on the assumption of independent observations. Six climate variables during the growing season; precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, daily maximum and minimum air temperature, soil temperature, solar irradiation were regressed on NDVI derived from a 10-km weather station buffer. The regression model identified precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as the most significant climatic variables, indicating that the water balance is the most important factor controlling vegetation condition at an annual timescale. The model indicates that 46% and 24% of variation in NDVI is accounted for by climate in grassland and cropland, respectively, indicating that grassland vegetation has a more pronounced response to climate variation than cropland. Other factors contributing to NDVI variation include environmental factors (soil, groundwater and terrain), human manipulation of crops, and sensor variation.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2013

Next generation of global land cover characterization, mapping, and monitoring

Land cover change is increasingly affecting the biophysics, biogeochemistry, and biogeography of the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, with far-reaching consequences to human well-being. However, our scientific understanding of the distribution and dynamics of land cover and land cover change (LCLCC) is limited. Previous global land cover assessments performed using coarse spatial resolution (300 m–1 km) satellite data did not provide enough thematic detail or change information for global change studies and for resource management. High resolution (∼30 m) land cover characterization and monitoring is needed that permits detection of land change at the scale of most human activity and offers the increased flexibility of environmental model parameterization needed for global change studies. However, there are a number of challenges to overcome before producing such data sets including unavailability of consistent global coverage of satellite data, sheer volume of data, unavailability of timely and accurate training and validation data, difficulties in preparing image mosaics, and high performance computing requirements. Integration of remote sensing and information technology is needed for process automation and high-performance computing needs. Recent developments in these areas have created an opportunity for operational high resolution land cover mapping, and monitoring of the world. Here, we report and discuss these advancements and opportunities in producing the next generations of global land cover characterization, mapping, and monitoring at 30-m spatial resolution primarily in the context of United States, Group on Earth Observations Global 30 m land cover initiative (UGLC).

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

USGS2001

Detection of pesticides and pesticide metabolites using the cross reactivity of enzyme immunoassays

Enzyme immunoassay is an important environmental analysis method that may be used to identify many pesticide analytes in water samples. Because of similarities in chemical structure between various members of a pesticide class, there often may be an unwanted response that is characterized by a percentage of cross reactivity. Also, there may be cross reactivity caused by degradation products of the target analyte that may be present in the sample. In this paper, the concept of cross reactivity caused by degradation products or by nontarget analytes is explored as a tool for identification of metabolites or structurally similar compounds not previously known to be present in water samples. Two examples are examined in this paper from various water quality studies. They are alachlor and its metabolite, alachlor ethane sulfonic acid, and atrazine and its class members, prometryn and propazine. A method for using cross reactivity for the detection of these compounds is explained in this paper.

Journal of AOAC International↗

USGS2019

Risk at the margins: A natural hazards perspective on the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk analysis is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent armed conflict in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, self-settling throughout the country through urban integration and informal encampment due to Lebanon's prohibition of formal refugee camps. The Syrian-Lebanon refugee crisis coincides with the recent reexamination of the established aid practice of camp-based resettlement, focused on issues of aid efficacy, security, and human dignity but lacking an environmental hazards perspective. In light of these issues, we quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon, finding a 75% increase in landslide risk since the start of the Syrian crisis. The risk is highest in the debris flow-prone mountains of central and northeastern Lebanon. Additionally, Syrian refugees settled in informal camps experience 9–11 times greater risk then urban populations due to sub-standard shelter, suggesting that urban rather than camp-based resettlement policies are preferable from an environmental-hazards perspective.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2005

Avian endocrine responses to environmental pollutants

Many environmental contaminants are hazardous to populations of wild birds. Chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides and industrial pollutants are thought to be responsible for population declines of several species of predatory birds through eggshell thinning. Studies have demonstrated that these contaminants have estrogenic potency and may affect the functioning of the gonadal and thyroidal endocrine subsystems. Petroleum crude oil exerts toxicity externally, by oiling of plumage, and internally, by way of ingestion of oil while feeding or preening. Extensive ultrastructural damage to the inner zone of the adrenal, diminished adrenal responsiveness to adrenocorticotrophic hormone, and reduced corticosterone secretion rate suggest that low levels of plasma corticosterone reflect a direct effect of petroleum on the adrenal gland. Suppressive effects of oil on the ovary and decreases in circulating prolactin have been associated with impaired reproductive function. Large-scale field studies of free-living seabirds have confirmed some of the inhibitory effects of oil on reproduction that have been observed in laboratory studies. Organophosphorus insecticides, representing the most widely used class of pesticides in North America, have been shown to impair reproductive function, possibly by altering secretion of luteinizing hormone and progesterone. Relevant areas of future research on the effects of contaminants on avian endocrine function are discussed.

Journal of Experimental Zoology↗

USGS2024

Before the fire: Predicting burn severity and potential post-fire debris-flow hazards to Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) conservation populations

Background Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) conservation populations may be at risk from wildfire and post-fire debris flows hazards. Aim To predict burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow hazard classifications to CRCT conservation populations before wildfires occur. Methods We used remote sensing, spatial analyses, and machine learning to model 28 wildfire incidents (2016–2020) and spatially predict burn severity from pre-wildfire environmental factors to evaluate the likelihood (%) and volume (m 3 ) hazard classification of post-fire debris flow. Key results Burn severity was best predicted by fuels, followed by topography, physical ecosystem conditions, and weather (mean adjusted R 2 = 0.54). Predictions of high or moderate burn severity covered 1.1 (15% of study area) and 1.5 (19% of study area) million ha, respectively, and varied by watershed. Combined high or moderate debris flow hazard classification included 80% of stream reaches with conservation populations and 97% of conservation population point nodes. Conclusions Predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow indicated moderate to high hazard for CRCT conservation populations native to the Green and Yampa rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Implications Future management actions can incorporate predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow to mitigate impacts to CRCT and other at-risk resource values before a wildfire occurs.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2010

EAARL coastal topography-western Florida, post-Hurricane Charley, 2004: seamless (bare earth and submerged.

Project Description These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived seamless (bare-earth and submerged) topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP), St. Petersburg, FL, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the western Florida coastline beachface, acquired post-Hurricane Charley on August 17 and 18, 2004. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website. Selected References Brock, J.C., Wright, C.W., Sallenger, A.H., Krabill, W.B., and Swift, R.N., 2002, Basis and methods of NASA airborne topographic mapper Lidar surveys for coastal studies: Journal of Coastal Research, v. 18, no. 1, p. 1-13. Crane, Michael, Clayton, Tonya, Raabe, Ellen, Stoker, Jason, Handley, Larry, Bawden, Gerald, Morgan, Karen, and Queija, Vivian, 2004, Report of the U.S. Geological Survey Lidar workshop sponsored by the Land Remote Sensing Program and held in St. Petersburg, FL, November 2002: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2004-1456, 72 p. Nayegandhi, Amar, Brock, J.C., and Wright, C.W., 2009, Small-footprint, waveform-resolving Lidar estimation of submerged and sub-canopy topography in coastal environments: International Journal of Remote Sensing, v. 30, no. 4, p. 861-878. Sallenger, A.H., Wright, C.W., and Lillycrop, Jeff, 2005, Coastal impacts of the 2004 hurricanes measured with airborne Lidar; initial results: Shore and Beach, v. 73, nos. 2-3, p. 10-14. Resources Included Readme.txt File

Data Series↗

USGS2006

A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2003

Nitrate distributions and source identification in the Abbotsford-Sumas Aquifer, northwestern Washington State

The Abbotsford–Sumas Aquifer is a shallow, predominantly unconfined aquifer that spans regions in southwestern British Columbia, Canada and northwestern Washington, USA. The aquifer is prone to nitrate contamination because of extensive regional agricultural practices. A 22-month ground water nitrate assessment was performed in a 10-km 2 study area adjacent to the international boundary in northwestern Washington to examine nitrate concentrations and nitrogen isotope ratios to characterize local source contributions from up-gradient sources in Canada. Nitrate concentrations in excess of 10 mg nitrate as nitrogen per liter (mg N L −1 ) were observed in ground water from most of the 26 domestic wells sampled in the study area, and in a creek that dissects the study area. The nitrate distribution was characteristic of nonpoint agricultural sources and consistent with the historical documentation of agriculturally related nitrate contamination in many parts of the aquifer. Hydrogeologic information, nitrogen isotope values, and statistical analyses indicated a nitrate concentration stratification in the study area. The highest concentrations (>20 mg N L −1 ) occurred in shallow regions of the aquifer and were linked to local agricultural practices in northwestern Washington. Nitrate concentrations in excess of 10 mg N L −1 deeper in the aquifer (>10 m) were related to agricultural sources in Canada. The identification of two possible sources of ground water nitrate in northwestern Washington adds to the difficulty in assessing and implementing local nutrient management plans for protecting drinking water in the region.

Washington, British Columbia↗

USGS2005

Occurrence of antibiotics in water from 13 fish hatcheries, 2001-2003

A 2-year study of extensive and intensive fish hatcheries was conducted to assess the general temporal occurrence of antibiotics in aquaculture. Antibiotics were detected in 15% of the water samples collected during the 2001-2002 collection period and in 31% of the samples during the 2003 collection period. Antibiotics were detected more frequently in samples from the intensive hatcheries (17 and 39%) than in samples from the extensive hatcheries (14 and 4%) during the 2001-2002 and 2003 collection periods, respectively. The maximum ormetoprim, oxytetracycline, and sulphadimethoxine concentrations were higher in samples from the intensive hatcheries (12, 10, and 36 µg L-1), respectively, than in samples from the extensive hatcheries (<0.05, 0.31, and 1.2 µg L-1), respectively. Sulphadimethoxine persisted for a longer period of time (up to 48 days) than ormetoprim (up to 28 days) and oxytetracycline (less than 20 days).

International Journal of Environmental Analytical ↗

USGS2025

Linking fire radiative power to land cover, fire history, and environmental setting in Alaska, 2003–2022

Background Fire radiative power (FRP) shows promise as a diagnostic and predictive indicator of fire behavior and post-fire effects in Alaska, USA. Aims To investigate relationships between FRP, vegetation functional groups, and environmental settings in Alaska (2003–2022) under various fire history conditions. Methods We tested for distinctness of MODIS FRP distributions associated with vegetation classes and fire legacies (frequency and number of previous burns). We used a random forest model to examine relative importance of vegetation class for FRP versus bottom-up biophysical and temporal parameters. Key results FRP distributions are statistically distinct among vegetation functional groups with contrasting fuel biomass, or within functional groups with contrasting burn characteristics. Location and topography, which constrain vegetation class, strongly determine FRP, and fire history is of lesser importance over the 19-year analysis period. Conclusions FRP can be used to identify wildfire consumption in dissimilar vegetation classes but is highly conditioned by geographic location. The complex and evolving vegetation composition of post-fire boreal landscapes precludes a clear association of expected FRP at distinct stages of recovery. Implications These results can inform further study of FRP as an indicator of fire behavior and fuel consumption and for informing dynamics of post-fire recovery across Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adult population of La Palma (Spain) after the 2021 Tajogaite eruption: Environmental and sociodemographic predictors

The adverse mental health effects of exposure to disasters have long been recognized, with earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and volcanoes (among others) contributing to anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Concerning PTSD and volcanic eruptions specifically, most studies have highlighted risk factors related to demographic and social factors (e.g., gender, age, and education), mental health, and those associated with the experience of the volcanic eruption (e.g., having evacuated). Establishing the demographic scope of those more likely to suffer PTSD following volcanic eruptions as well as understanding the aggravating factors is key to best tailor precautionary measurements and psychological interventions. In this study, we supplement these analyses by investigating the role of environmental contaminants (specifically, exposure to tephra falls and degraded air quality) together with demographic, health, and hazard experiences in contributing to PTSD. We focus on data collected after the 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, Spain). Our results show that in addition to sex, education, distance from the volcano, evacuation status, health issues related to the eruption, and mental health antecedents, exposure to volcanic gas but not tephra is associated with higher PTSD scores. Our findings establish a picture of the prevalence of PTSD symptoms in various demographics groups and aggravating factors following the 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano. We further call for an extended investigation (and potentially, ultimately, a mechanistic explanation) of the role of air quality (as a potential synergic hazard) in shaping mental health following exposure to a primary hazard, such as a volcanic eruption.

Canary Islands, Island of La Palma↗

USGS2015

Dynamics within geyser conduits, and sensitivity to environmental perturbations: insights from a periodic geyser in the El Tatio Geyser Field, Atacama Desert, Chile

Despite more than 200 years of scientific study, the internal dynamics of geyser systems remain poorly characterized. As a consequence, there remain fundamental questions about what processes initiate and terminate eruptions, and where eruptions begin. Over a one-week period in October 2012, we collected down-hole measurements of pressure and temperature in the conduit of an exceptionally regular geyser (132 s/cycle) located in the Chilean desert. We identified four stages in the geyser cycle: (1) recharge of water into the conduit after an eruption, driven by the pressure difference between water in the conduit and in a deeper reservoir; (2) a pre-eruptive stage that follows the recharge and is dominated by addition of steam from below; (3) the eruption, which occurs by rapid boiling of a large mass of water at the top of the water column, and decompression that propagates boiling conditions downward; (4) a relaxation stage during which pressure and temperature decrease until conditions preceding the recharge stage are restored. Eruptions are triggered by the episodic addition of steam coming from depth, suggesting that the dynamics of the eruptions are dominated by geometrical and thermodynamic complexities in the conduit and reservoir. Further evidence favoring the dominance of internal processes in controlling periodicity is also provided by the absence of responses of the geyser to environmental perturbations (air pressure, temperature and probably also Earth tides).

Atacama Desert↗

USGS2013

Bactericidal efficacy of elevated pH on fish pathogenic and environmental bacteria

Ship ballast water is a recognized medium for transfer and introductions of nonindigenous species. There is a need for new ballast water treatment methods that effectively and safely eliminate or greatly minimize movements of these species. The present study employed laboratory methods to evaluate the bactericidal efficacy of increased pH (pH 10.0–12.0) for exposure durations of up to 72 h to kill a variety of Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria including fish pathogens (Aeromonas spp., Yersinia ruckeri, Edwardsiella ictaluri, Serratia liquefaciens, Carnobacterium sp.), other common aquatic-inhabitant bacteria (Serratia marcescens, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Staphylococcus sp., Bacillus sp.) and indicators listed in International Maritime Organization D2 Standards; namely, Vibrio cholera (an environmental isolate from fish), Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis. Volumes of 5 N NaOH were added to tryptic soy broth to obtain desired pH adjustments. Viable cells were determined after 0, 4, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h. Initial (0 h) cell numbers ranged from 3.40 × 10 4 cfu/mL for Bacillus sp. to 2.44 × 10 7 cfu/mL for E. faecalis. The effective endpoints of pH and treatment duration necessary to realize 100% bactericidal effect varied; however, all bacteria tested were killed within 72 h at pH 12.0 or lower. The lowest parameters examined, 4 h at pH 10.0, were bactericidal to V. cholera, E. ictaluri, three of four isolates of E. coli, and (three of four) Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida. Bactericidal effect was attained at pH 10.0 within 12 h for the other A. salmonicida subsp. salmonicida, and within 24 h for P. fluorescens, and the remaining E. coli.

Journal of Advanced Research↗

USGS2007

A Ribeiroia spp. (Class: Trematoda) - Specific PCR-based diagnostic

Increased reporting of amphibian malformations in North America has been noted with concern in light of reports that amphibian numbers and species are declining worldwide. Ribeiroia ondatrae has been shown to cause a variety of types of malformations in amphibians. However, little is known about the prevalence of R. ondatrae in North America. To aid in conducting field studies of Ribeiroia spp., we have developed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based diagnostic. Herein, we describe the development of an accurate, rapid, simple, and cost-effective diagnostic for detection of Ribeiroia spp. infection in snails (Planorbella trivolvis). Candidate oligonucleotide primers for PCR were designed via DNA sequence analyses of multiple ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-2 regions from Ribeiroia spp. and Echinostoma spp. Comparison of consensus sequences determined from both genera identified areas of sequence potentially unique to Ribeiroia spp. The PCR reliably produced a diagnostic 290-base pair (bp) product in the presence of a wide concentration range of snail or frog DNA. Sensitivity was examined with DNA extracted from single R. ondatrae cercaria. The single-tube PCR could routinely detect less than 1 cercariae equivalent, because DNA isolated from a single cercaria could be diluted at least 1:50 and still yield a positive result via gel electrophoresis. An even more sensitive nested PCR also was developed that routinely detected 100 fg of the 290-bp fragment. The assay did not detect furcocercous cercariae of certain Schistosomatidae, Echinostoma sp., or Sphaeridiotrema globulus nor adults of Clinostomum sp. or Cyathocotyle bushiensis. Field testing of 137 P. trivolvis identified 3 positives with no overt environmental cross-reactivity, and results concurred with microscopic examinations in all cases. ?? American Society of Parasitologists 2007.

Journal of Parasitology↗

USGS2019

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗