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USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Willamette Basin and Central Willamette subbasin, Oregon

Full appropriation of tributary streamflow during summer, a growing population, and agricultural needs are increasing the demand for groundwater in the Willamette Basin. Greater groundwater use could diminish streamflow and create seasonal and long-term declines in groundwater levels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) cooperated in a study to develop a conceptual and quantitative understanding of the groundwater-flow system of the Willamette Basin with an emphasis on the Central Willamette subbasin. This final report from the cooperative study describes numerical models of the regional and local groundwater-flow systems and evaluates the effects of pumping on groundwater and surface‑water resources. The models described in this report can be used to evaluate spatial and temporal effects of pumping on groundwater, base flow, and stream capture. The regional model covers about 6,700 square miles of the 12,000-square mile Willamette and Sandy River drainage basins in northwestern Oregon—referred to as the Willamette Basin in this report. The Willamette Basin is a topographic and structural trough that lies between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range and is divided into five sedimentary subbasins underlain and separated by basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (Columbia River basalt) that crop out as local uplands. From north to south, these five subbasins are the Portland subbasin, the Tualatin subbasin, the Central Willamette subbasin, the Stayton subbasin, and the Southern Willamette subbasin. Recharge in the Willamette Basin is primarily from precipitation in the uplands of the Cascade Range, Coast Range, and western Cascades areas. Groundwater moves downward and laterally through sedimentary or basalt units until it discharges locally to wells, evapotranspiration, or streams. Mean annual groundwater withdrawal for water years 1995 and 1996 was about 400 cubic feet per second; irrigation withdrawals accounted for about 80 percent of that total. The upper 180 feet of productive aquifers in the Central Willamette and Southern Willamette subbasins produced about 70 percent of the total pumped volume. In this study, the USGS constructed a three-dimensional numerical finite-difference groundwater-flow model of the Willamette Basin representing the six hydrogeologic units, defined in previous investigations, as six model layers. From youngest to oldest, and [generally] uppermost to lowermost they are the: upper sedimentary unit, Willamette silt unit, middle sedimentary unit, lower sedimentary unit, Columbia River basalt unit, and basement confining unit. The high Cascade unit is not included in the groundwater-flow model because it is not present within the model boundaries. Geographic boundaries are simulated as no-flow (no water flowing in or out of the model), except where the Columbia River is simulated as a constant hydraulic head boundary. Streams are designated as head-dependent-flux boundaries, in which the flux depends on the elevation of the stream surface. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a watershed model that accounts for evapotranspiration from the unsaturated zone. Evapotranspiration from the saturated zone was not considered an important component of groundwater discharge. Well pumping was simulated as specified flux and included public supply, irrigation, and industrial pumping. Hydraulic conductivity values were estimated from previous studies through aquifer slug and permeameter tests, specific capacity data, core analysis, and modeling. Upper, middle and lower sedimentary unit horizontal hydraulic conductivity values were differentiated between the Portland subbasin and the Tualatin, Central Willamette, and Southern Willamette subbasins based on preliminary model results.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Prioritization of oil and gas fields for regional groundwater monitoring based on a preliminary assessment of petroleum resource development and proximity to California’s groundwater resources

The California State Water Resources Control Board initiated a regional monitoring program in July 2015 to determine where and to what degree groundwater quality may be adversely impacted by oil and gas development activities. A key issue in the implementation of the regional groundwater monitoring program is that each year, detailed characterization work can be done in only a few of California’s 487 onshore oil and gas fields. The first step in monitoring groundwater near petroleum development is to prioritize oil and gas fields using consistent statewide analysis of available data that indicate potential risk of groundwater to oil and gas development. The U.S. Geological Survey compiled data for four factors that characterize the intensity of petroleum resource development and proximity to groundwater resources: petroleum-well density, volume of water injected in oil fields, vertical proximity of groundwater resources to oil and gas resource development, and water-well density. An overall priority ranking for each field was determined by computing summary metrics, analyzing statewide distributions of summary metrics for all oil and gas fields, using those distributions to define relative categories of potential risk for each factor, and combining relative risk rankings for different factors into an overall priority ranking. This preliminary assessment does not represent an evaluation of groundwater risk to oil and gas development, which needs to be based on detailed analysis and data related to development activities including well stimulation, well integrity issues, produced water ponds, and underground injection. Based on the prioritization analysis, 22 percent (107 fields) of the total number of oil and gas fields in California were ranked as high priority, 23 percent (114 fields) as moderate priority, and 55 percent (266 fields) as low priority. These results indicate that between 100 and 200 oil fields are principal candidates for the next steps in the regional monitoring program. The land area of fields that ranked high priority accounted for 41 percent of the total field area (3,392 square miles). More than half of the high priority fields were in the southern San Joaquin Valley and the Los Angeles Basin. Some of the larger fields tended to have higher rankings because of greater intensity of petroleum development, sometimes coupled with proximity to groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board and other agencies, has begun regional groundwater monitoring near oil and gas fields selected for study through the California Oil, Gas, and Groundwater cooperative program. Groundwater monitoring includes compiling, analyzing, and developing three-dimensional visualizations of existing data, including geological frameworks, salinity mapping, identification of surface features that could potentially affect groundwater quality, locations and depths of oil/gas and water wells, cataloging well-construction integrity issues, and evaluating the directions of groundwater flow. These analyses are required to determine where existing wells should be monitored and where new monitoring wells may need to be drilled.

California↗

USGS2021

Groundwater management process simulations using an updated version of the three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow in northern Utah Valley, Utah County, Utah

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water in northern Utah County. The groundwater system is recharged mainly from precipitation in the adjacent Wasatch Mountains and infiltration of streamflow. In 2004, groundwater withdrawals were estimated to be roughly 44,500 acre-feet per year. In 2016, groundwater withdrawals were estimated to be greater than 63,400 acre-feet per year. To prepare for anticipated future increases in groundwater withdrawals, local cities identified 16 locations as feasible for managed aquifer recharge. Using an updated version of an existing U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow model of northern Utah County, the Groundwater-Management Process for MODFLOW-2005 was used to investigate optimal managed aquifer recharge scenarios with the objective of maintaining acceptable reductions in simulated discharge at 12 groundwater discharge areas and flowing wells along Utah Lake. The Groundwater-Management Process is applied to a 50-year (2017–66) projection of groundwater conditions using average recharge conditions and a linear increase of approximately 750 acre-feet per year of municipal groundwater withdrawals. Two sets of discharge constraints were applied. The first scenario constrains discharge to greater than or equal to 80 percent of the 2016 simulated groundwater discharge along Utah Lake. The constraint was met with a total managed aquifer recharge rate of roughly 7,300 acre-feet per year during 2042–56, and 15,600 acre-feet per year during 2057–66. A second scenario constrains discharge to greater than or equal to 90 percent of the 2016 simulated discharge. This constraint can only be met at 8 of the 12 discharge areas along Utah Lake. This required a managed aquifer recharge rate of roughly 10,000 acre-feet per year during 2042–56 and 15,400 acre-feet per year during 2057–66. For both scenarios, the Groundwater-Management Process indicated that all managed aquifer recharge sites need to be used to meet discharges constraints. The discharge constraints were informally defined on the basis of the water rights hierarchy associated with Utah Lake.

Utah↗

USGS2016

Assessment of hydrogeologic terrains, well-construction characteristics, groundwater hydraulics, and water-quality and microbial data for determination of surface-water-influenced groundwater supplies in West Virginia

In January 2014, a storage tank leaked, spilling a large quantity of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol into the Elk River in West Virginia and contaminating the water supply for more than 300,000 people. In response, the West Virginia Legislature passed Senate Bill 373, which requires the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (WVDHHR) to assess the susceptibility and vulnerability of public surface-water-influenced groundwater supply sources (SWIGS) and surface-water intakes statewide. In response to this mandate for reassessing SWIGS statewide, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the WVDHHR, Bureau of Public Health, Office of Environmental Health Services, compiled available data and summarized the results of previous groundwater studies to provide the WVDHHR with data that could be used as part of the process for assessing and determining SWIGS. Existing geologic, hydrologic, well-construction, water-quality, and other related data and information from previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrogeologic studies and the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, in conjunction with data from the West Virginia Bureau for Public Health (WVBPH) Department of Health and Human Resources (WVDHHR) and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection database and files, were collected, compiled, and analyzed to help the WVDHHR to better assess public groundwater supply wells that may meet the definition of a surface-water-influenced- groundwater supply (SWIGS). In this study, measures of intrinsic susceptibility, which are characterized by the physical properties that affect the ease with which water moves through the unsaturated zone and, subsequently, into the saturated zone within an aquifer, showed that karst limestone aquifers are the aquifers most intrinsically susceptible to contamination within the State of West Virginia. Karst limestone aquifers are present within Cambrian- and Ordovician-age formations within West Virginia’s eastern panhandle and in Mississippian-age limestones within the Greenbrier River valley. Solution development within these limestone aquifers allows rapid recharge and flow of groundwater within the aquifer, both of which allow surface contaminants to easily enter the aquifer and travel long distances in a short period of time. Alluvial aquifers bordering the Ohio River in western West Virginia are also potentially highly susceptible to contamination because these alluvial aquifers can receive significant recharge from the adjacent Ohio River. Any potential contaminants that may be present in the river have the potential to enter the aquifer and contaminate wells completed within the sand and gravel alluvial sediments within which the wells are completed. These same alluvial sediments, however, help to retard the movement of bacteria and other potentially pathogenic organisms, such as Cryptosporidia and Giardia lamblia , into the aquifer. As a result, samples from alluvial aquifers bordering the Ohio River and elsewhere within the State do not commonly test positive for indicator bacteria, such as total coliform, fecal coliform, or Escherichia coli ( E. coli ). The alluvial sediments do not, however, provide assimilative capacity with respect to water soluble compounds such as nitrate and certain volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds. Therefore, the Ohio River alluvial aquifers are highly susceptible to organic compounds present in the river or on the land surface near a well. These aquifers are also susceptible to nitrate contamination from fertilizers, pesticides, and manure, which are commonly used on the fertile agricultural soils present on terraces along the Ohio River. Abandoned-coal-mine aquifers, which are typically used as a source of groundwater in southern West Virginia, are moderately susceptible to contamination. The vast network of voids from mine entries provide vast storage for groundwater in abandoned mine aquifers, and fracturing of overburden strata, which is common in areas of past or current mining, can allow rapid infiltration of contaminants to the aquifer. Where streams cross over below-drainage underground coal mines, there is an increased potential for contamination of coal-mine aquifers. As a result, above-drainage underground coal mines, those mines that are present at an elevation above local tributary drainage, are probably less susceptible to contamination than are below-drainage underground coal mines. Public groundwater supplies in abandoned coal mines need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to assess the potential for recharge of contaminated surface water to enter below-drainage underground coal-mine aquifers and to assess potential hydraulic conductivity to nearby surface-water bodies, such as lakes, ponds, rivers, or streams. Fractured-rock aquifers compose an additional major type of aquifer within the State of West Virginia. Owing to their low permeability and their typically small groundwater capture areas, fractured-rock aquifers within the State of West Virginia typically have low susceptibility to contamination. However, there are exceptions, and wells completed in fractured-rock aquifers that are in close proximity to streams may be adversely affected by induced recharge from the stream. Where such systems are present, frequent bacterial testing of the source water can be used to ascertain the potential for microbial contamination of the aquifer. Intrinsic susceptibility alone does not fully predict whether or not a well is vulnerable to contamination, only that the hydrogeologic terrain is suitable for rapid transport of pathogenic organisms or chemical compounds to and within the aquifer. However, contaminants may or may not be present in the recharge water to an individual well or well field. Therefore, an assessment of potential contaminant sources, such as nearby gas wells, landfills, underground storage tanks, above ground storage tanks, major transportation corridors, surface or underground coal mines, and flood plains, is needed to assess vulnerability. The assessments need to be conducted on a case-by-case basis or, as has been done in this study, by collecting and compiling the number of potential contaminant sources that may be present in the source-water-protection area for an individual public groundwater supply source. Groundwater public-supply systems in areas of high intrinsic susceptibility and with a large number of potential contaminant sources within the recharge or source-water-protection area of individual wells or well fields are potentially vulnerable to contamination and probably warrant further evaluation as potential SWIGS. However, measures can be taken to educate the local population and initiate safety protocols and protective strategies to appropriately manage contaminant sources to prevent release of contaminants to the aquifer, therefore, reducing vulnerability of these systems to contamination. However, each public groundwater supply source needs to be assessed on an individual basis. Data presented in this report can be used to categorize and prioritize wells and springs that have a high potential for intrinsic susceptibility or vulnerability to contamination.

West Virginia↗

USGS2017

Groundwater discharge to the Mississippi River and groundwater balances for the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer, Clearwater to Elk River, Minnesota, 2012–14

The Interstate 94 Corridor has been identified as 1 of 16 Minnesota groundwater areas of concern because of its limited available groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed six seasonal and annual groundwater balances for parts of the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer to better understand its long-term (next several decades) sustainability. A high-precision Mississippi River groundwater discharge measurement of 5.23 cubic feet per second per mile was completed at low-flow conditions to better inform these groundwater balances. The recharge calculation methods RISE program and Soil-Water-Balance model were used to inform the groundwater balances. For the RISE-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 3.30 to 11.91 inches per year; for the SWB-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 5.23 to 17.06 inches per year. Calculated groundwater discharges ranged from 1.45 to 5.06 cubic feet per second per mile, a ratio of 27.7 to 96.4 percent of the measured groundwater discharge. Ratios of groundwater pumping to total recharge ranged from 8.6 to 97.2 percent, with the longer-term groundwater balances ranging from 12.9 to 19 percent. Overall, this study focused on the surficial aquifer system and its interactions with the Mississippi River. During the study period (October 1, 2012, through November 30, 2014), six synoptic measurements, along with continuous groundwater hydrographs, rainfall records, and a compilation of the pertinent irrigation data, establishes the framework for future groundwater modeling efforts.

Minnesota↗

USGS2019

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Brunswick Area, Georgia, for 2004 and 2015, and selected groundwater-management scenarios

The Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) is the principal water source for industrial and public supply in Glynn County, Georgia. Wells in active pumping centers that tap the UFA for industries near the city of Brunswick have created an upward hydraulic-head gradient in the Floridan aquifer system, which has allowed high chloride (saline) groundwater from the Fernandina permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer (LFA) to migrate upward into freshwater zones. Chloride concentrations of more than 250 milligrams per liter—the State and Federal secondary drinking-water standard—have been measured in a 2-square-mile area near downtown Brunswick. An existing regional U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW-2000) was modified using greater horizontal and vertical resolution to enable more detailed simulation of the effects of pumping in the vicinity of chloride contamination. Modifications to the regional model consisted of (1) limiting grid size to a maximum of 500 feet (ft) per side in the vicinity of the chloride plume; (2) representing the upper and lower Brunswick aquifers with distinct model layers; (3) similarly, representing upper and lower water-bearing zones of the UFA with distinct model layers in Glynn and Camden Counties, Ga.; and (4) establishing new hydraulic-property geographic zones in the UFA within Glynn County. The revised groundwater-flow model was calibrated to steady-state conditions that were assumed to exist during 2000 and 2004. The calibration and framework of the revised groundwater-flow model were documented in a separate report. For the current study, steady-state conditions were calibrated using October 2015 pumping rates in the Brunswick/Glynn County area as a 2015 Base Case. The 2015 Base Case simulation was used as the basis to evaluate seven groundwater-management scenarios in the Brunswick/Glynn County area. Seven groundwater management-scenarios were developed on the basis of short- and long-term groundwater-use projections for the UFA in the Brunswick/Glynn County area. Scenarios A and B simulated additional pumping in the upper water-bearing zone (UWBZ) of the UFA at existing public-supply wells located near a chloride plume and planned public-supply wells to be constructed north of downtown Brunswick. Scenario C simulated a shutdown at Brunswick Cellulose Inc. and Pinova Inc. and the resulting deactivation of nine production wells, with a combined total pumping of 31.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for the 2015 Base Case simulation. Scenario D (three scenarios) simulated 12.5, 25, and 50 percent (designated Scenarios D1, D2, and D3) of the total pumping of 31.3 Mgal/d at Brunswick Cellulose and Pinova. The objective of Scenario D was to determine pumping rates that may reverse groundwater-flow directions toward the Brunswick Cellulose well field and potentially allow groundwater with higher chloride concentration to migrate toward nearby public-supply wells. Scenario E simulated an additional pumping of 5 Mgal/d from the UWBZ of the UFA at a recently constructed production well within the Brunswick Cellulose well field. Backward particle-tracking (MODPATH) analysis in public-supply wells located just outside the chloride plume to the north shows that predominant groundwater-flow directions are from the northeast toward the Brunswick Cellulose well field. The analysis covered 20- and 50-year periods for the 2015 Base Case and Scenario C simulations with 100 percent of backtracked particles remaining in the UWBZ and lower water-bearing zone of the UFA. Groundwater-flow directions are characterized by some vertical movement and dominant horizontal movement away from the chloride plume in the northern Brunswick area. For the 2015 Base Case simulation, the mean rate of particle movement ranged from 268 to 413 feet per year. For the Scenario C simulation, the mean rate of particle movement ranged from 89 to 182 feet per year with 50 percent of particles migrating from the chloride plume area. The rate of particle movement is influenced most by the horizontal hydraulic-head gradient in the UWBZ of the UFA. The revised groundwater-flow model is subject to the limitations documented in the original model. In addition, the values used for the specified-head boundaries in the Floridan aquifer system for the 2004 calibrated model were based on the sparse data available and were not changed for the 2015 update to the model. These model boundaries control 80 percent of the inflows and about 60 percent of the outflows. Composite-scaled sensitivities of the model parameters indicate the revised model is most sensitive to pumping rates, followed by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the UFA for zones along coastal Georgia.

Georgia↗

USGS2024

Conceptualization and simulation of groundwater flow and groundwater availability in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers in northeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2017

Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations to determine the maximum annual yield for the State’s groundwater basins. The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (also known as the Springfield Plateau aquifer and Ozark aquifer, respectively) are bedrock aquifers that extend from northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. At present (2024), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has yet to legally issue orders for the final determination of maximum annual yields for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. To support determination of a maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, developed a hydrogeologic framework, a conceptual groundwater-flow model, and a calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were simulated by using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates (groundwater withdrawal applied equally over the aquifer), (2) quantify the potential effects of projected groundwater withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. For the Boone aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.10, 0.98, and 0.96 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year scenarios, respectively. For the Roubidoux aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.76, 1.34, and 1.25 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year simulations, respectively. For the 50-year scenarios, stream seepage was minimally affected. Over the 10-year drought scenario, groundwater storage in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers decreased by 660,451 acre-feet (6.7 percent) and 508,472 acre-feet (1.0 percent), respectively.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2020

Farmer behavior under groundwater management scenarios: Implications for groundwater conservation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain

Concern about sustained availability of fresh groundwater for agricultural use in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) mounts as groundwater levels decline. We evaluate elasticities of demand for groundwater and other agricultural inputs, as well as overall and output specific economies of scale for four major irrigated commodities (rice, corn, soybeans, and cotton) in the MAP region. Additionally, we investigate impacts of two groundwater management policy scenarios, including increasing pumping cost and groundwater use restrictions, on irrigation behavior. The results show price elasticity of demand for groundwater to be -0.13, indicating that it is inelastic, and an increasing cost of pumping will not significantly decrease relative demand for groundwater in the region. Even with policy scenarios that either increase the costs of pumping significantly or restrict groundwater use in the region, groundwater demand still appears to be inelastic. We also document significant overall economies of scale in the region. Our findings have implications for potential policy options aimed at reducing groundwater use. Efficient management practices are important to increase aquifer recharge, and at the same time, incorporation of human behavior via economic analysis will improve projections of groundwater availability in the MAP region.

Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississi↗

USGS2016

Statistical analysis of lake levels and field study of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015: Chapter A of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

Water levels declined from 2003 to 2011 in many lakes in Ramsey and Washington Counties in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota; however, water levels in other northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes increased during the same period. Groundwater and surface-water exchanges can be important in determining lake levels where these exchanges are an important component of the water budget of a lake. An understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area has been limited by the lack of hydrologic data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and Minnesota Department of Health, completed a field and statistical study assessing lake-water levels and regional and local groundwater and surface-water exchanges near northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. This report documents the analysis of collected hydrologic, water-quality, and geophysical data; and existing hydrologic and geologic data to (1) assess the effect of physical setting and climate on lake-level fluctuations of selected lakes, (2) estimate potential percentages of surface-water contributions to well water across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, (3) estimate general ages for waters extracted from the wells, and (4) assess groundwater inflow to lakes and lake-water outflow to aquifers downgradient from White Bear Lake. Statistical analyses of lake levels during short-term (2002–10) and long-term (1925–2014) periods were completed to help understand lake-level changes across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Comparison of 2002–10 lake levels to several landscape and geologic characteristics explained variability in lake-level changes for 96 northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area lakes. Application of several statistical methods determined that (1) closed-basin lakes (without an active outlet) had larger lake-level declines than flow-through lakes with an outlet; (2) closed-basin lake-level changes reflected groundwater-level changes in the Quaternary, Prairie du Chien, and Jordan aquifers; (3) the installation of outlet-control structures, such as culverts and weirs, resulted in smaller multiyear lake-level changes than lakes without outlet-control structures; (4) water levels in lakes primarily overlying Superior Lobe deposits were significantly more variable than lakes primarily overlying Des Moines Lobe deposits; (5) lake-level declines were larger with increasing mean lake-level elevation; and (6) the frequency of some of these characteristics varies by landscape position. Flow-through lakes and lakes with outlet-control structures were more common in watersheds with more than 50 percent urban development compared to watersheds with less than 50 percent urban development. A comparison of two 35-year periods during 1925–2014 revealed that variability of annual mean lake levels in flow-through lakes increased when annual precipitation totals were more variable, whereas variability of annual mean lake levels in closed-basin lakes had the opposite pattern, being more variable when annual precipitation totals were less variable. Oxygen-18/oxygen-16 and hydrogen-2/hydrogen-1 ratios for water samples from 40 wells indicated the well water was a mixture of surface water and groundwater in 31 wells, whereas ratios from water sampled from 9 other wells indicated that water from these wells receive no surface-water contribution. Of the 31 wells with a mixture of surface water and groundwater, 11 were downgradient from White Bear Lake, likely receiving water from deeper parts of the lake. Age dating of water samples from wells indicated that the age of water in the Prairie du Chien and Jordan aquifers can vary widely across the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Estimated ages of recharge for 9 of the 40 wells sampled for chlorofluorocarbon concentrations ranged widely from the early 1940s to mid-1970s. The wide range in estimated ages of recharge may have resulted from the wide range in the open-interval lengths and depths for the wells. Results from stable isotope analyses of water samples, lake-sediment coring, continuous seismic-reflection profiling, and water-level and flow monitoring indicated that there is groundwater inflow from nearshore sites and lake-water outflow from deep-water sites in White Bear Lake. Continuous seismic-reflection profiling indicated that deep sections of White Bear, Pleasant, Turtle, and Big Marine Lakes have few trapped gases and little organic material, which indicates where groundwater and lake-water exchanges are more likely. Water-level differences between White Bear Lake and piezometer and seepage measurements in deep waters of the lake indicate that groundwater and lake-water exchange is happening in deep waters, predominantly downgradient from the lake and into the lake sediment. Seepage fluxes measured in the nearshore sites of White Bear Lake generally were higher than seepage fluxes measured in the deep-water sites, which indicates that groundwater-inflow rates at most of the nearshore sites are higher than lake-water outflow from the deep-water sites.

Minnesota↗

USGS2019

Comparison of groundwater-model construction methods, representations of glacial geology, model designs, and groundwater-model flow simulations within Elkhart County, Indiana

Automated data-processing methods allow hydrologists to efficiently incorporate digital well-record datasets into the construction of hydrostratigraphic frameworks for groundwater-flow models. The method selected to construct the hydrostratigraphic framework can affect the extent of geologic heterogeneity that can be included in the model. The detail generated from a hydrostratigraphic framework can affect groundwater simulation results. The effects of detail on model accuracy, groundwater-flow simulations, and particle-tracking simulations are described in this study. This report compares differences in hydrostratigraphic frameworks and results of groundwater models using (1) a method that incorporates more hydrologic judgment at the expense of using limited lithologic data and (2) a method that is more automated and uses all available lithologic data. The study additionally evaluates the effect of model discretization and inclusion of more (or less) geologic detail on simulation results. Two methods were used to create hydrostratigraphic frameworks of glacial deposits in the St. Joseph River Basin. One method, referred to as the subjective method, manually identifies stratigraphic boundaries using a sample of well logs from State databases and uses two-dimensional kriging to create three model layers of the study area. Indicator kriging is used to define aquifer extent in each layer. The second method, referred to as the objective method, uses three-dimensional kriging to automatically create a detailed heterogeneous model of the study area using all wells logs from the State database. The objective method increases detail in the vertical by greatly increasing the number of computer groundwater model layers from 3 to 30. In Elkhart County, Indiana, a previously published model represents the product of the subjective method, and a newly calibrated model of the same area represents the product of the objective method. An automated calibration procedure was used with the objective model (derived from the objective method) for Elkhart County. The two most-sensitive parameters for the Elkhart County objective model are horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the sand and the combined sand and gravel/gravel deposits. Vertical hydraulic conductivity of the fine-grained and intermediate-sized deposits could not be estimated, possibly indicating major flow paths are along a continuously connected series of sand and gravel deposits and not through a confining layer. The statistics measuring model calibration accuracy for the objective model were slightly better than statistics for the subjective model (model derived from the subjective method) of Elkhart County, but the hydraulic conductivities and flow rates for the two models were different. The mean absolute errors between simulated and measured groundwater levels are 2.04 and 2.16 feet for the objective and subjective models, respectively. Simulated seepage losses from and groundwater discharges to measured stream reaches in the objective model were evenly balanced in terms of over and under simulations of measured values; the subjective model tended to overpredict measured groundwater discharge to streams. The overprediction may be related to the 58 percent greater total inflow and outflow through the subjective model. The greater flow rate through the subjective model results from higher horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the subjective model than in the objective model. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 23.9 to 111 feet per day in the objective model and generally ranged from 170 to 370 feet per day in the subjective model. The improvement in calibration statistics for the objective model relative to the subjective model may be from increased detail in how the objective model represents the distribution of fine- and coarse-grained deposits. The improvement also could be associated with the difference in methods used to represent the continuity of the confining unit. The effect of differences in horizontal hydraulic conductivity distributions between the two models for Elkhart County is evident in the groundwater-flow paths simulated by the objective and subjective models. At a withdrawal well location, the flow lines produced by the objective model indicate a wider contributing area than that for the subjective model. The discontinuous confining unit represented in the objective model provided the opportunity for groundwater flow to split into an upper and lower path. The split in flow simulated by the objective model at one location was independently supported by bromide concentrations in groundwater; the subjective model did not duplicate the split in flow.

Indiana↗

USGS2024

Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions. Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance. The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2013

Estimating evapotranspiration and groundwater flow from water-table fluctuations for a general wetland scenario

The use of diurnal water-table fluctuation methods to calculate evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater flow is of increasing interest in ecohydrological studies. Most studies of this type, however, have been located in riparian wetlands of semi-arid regions where groundwater levels are consistently below topographic surface elevations and precipitation events are infrequent. Current methodologies preclude application to a wider variety of wetland systems. In this study, we extended a method for estimating sub-daily ET and groundwater flow rates from water-level fluctuations to fit highly dynamic, non-riparian wetland scenarios. Modifications included (1) varying the specific yield to account for periodic flooded conditions and (2) relating empirically derived ET to estimated potential ET for days when precipitation events masked the diurnal signal. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we estimated ET and groundwater fluxes over two growing seasons (2006–2007) in 15 wetlands within a ridge-and-swale wetland complex of the Laurentian Great Lakes under flooded and non-flooded conditions. Mean daily ET rates for the sites ranged from 4.0 mm d−1 to 6.6 mm d−1. Shallow groundwater discharge rates resulting from evaporative demand ranged from 2.5 mm d−1 to 4.3 mm d−1. This study helps to expand our understanding of the evapotranspirative demand of plants under various hydrologic and climate conditions. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2011

Multivariate analyses with end-member mixing to characterize groundwater flow: Wind Cave and associated aquifers

Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to hydrochemical data has been used with end-member mixing to characterize groundwater flow to a limited extent, but aspects of this approach are unresolved. Previous similar approaches typically have assumed that the extreme-value samples identified by PCA represent end members. The method presented herein is different from previous work in that (1) end members were not assumed to have been sampled but rather were estimated and constrained by prior knowledge; (2) end-member mixing was quantified in relation to hydrogeologic domains, which focuses model results on major hydrologic processes; (3) a method to select an appropriate number of end members using a series of cluster analyses is presented; and (4) conservative tracers were weighted preferentially in model calibration, which distributed model errors of optimized values, or residuals, more appropriately than would otherwise be the case. The latter item also provides an estimate of the relative influence of geochemical evolution along flow paths in comparison to mixing. This method was applied to groundwater in Wind Cave and the associated karst aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. The end-member mixing model was used to test a hypothesis that five different end-member waters are mixed in the groundwater system comprising five hydrogeologic domains. The model estimated that Wind Cave received most of its groundwater inflow from local surface recharge with an additional 33% from an upgradient aquifer. Artesian springs in the vicinity of Wind Cave primarily received water from regional groundwater flow.

South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Local topography and streambed hydraulic conductivity influence riparian groundwater age and groundwater-surface water connection

The western U.S. is experiencing increasing rain to snow ratios due to climate change, and scientists are uncertain how changing recharge patterns will affect future groundwater-surface water connection. We examined how watershed topography and streambed hydraulic conductivity impact groundwater age and stream discharge at eight sites along a headwater stream within the Manitou Experimental Forest, CO USA. To do so, we measured: (a) continuous stream and groundwater discharge/level and specific conductivity from April to November 2021; (b) biweekly stream and groundwater chemistry; (c) groundwater chlorofluorocarbons and tritium in spring and fall; (d) streambed hydraulic conductivity; and (e) local slope. We used the chemistry data to calculate fluorite saturation states that were used to inform end-member mixing analysis of streamflow source. We then combined chlorofluorocarbon and tritium data to estimate the age composition of riparian groundwater. Our data suggest that future stream drying is more probable where local slope is steep and streambed hydraulic conductivity is high. In these areas, groundwater source shifted seasonally, as indicated by age increases, and we observed a high fraction of groundwater in streamflow, primarily interflow from adjacent hillslopes. In contrast, where local slope is flat and streambed hydraulic conductivity is low, streamflow is more likely to persist as groundwater age was seasonally constant and buffered by storage in alluvial sediments. Groundwater age and streamflow paired with characterization of watershed topography and subsurface characteristics enabled identification of likely controls on future stream drying patterns.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

Evaluation of the groundwater flow model for southern Utah and Goshen Valleys, Utah, updated to conditions through 2011, with new projections and groundwater management simulations

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Southern Utah Valley Municipal Water Association, updated an existing USGS model of southern Utah and Goshen Valleys for hydrologic and climatic conditions from 1991 to 2011 and used the model for projection and groundwater management simulations. All model files used in the transient model were updated to be compatible with MODFLOW-2005 and with the additional stress periods. The well and recharge files had the most extensive changes. Discharge to pumping wells in southern Utah and Goshen Valleys was estimated and simulated on an annual basis from 1991 to 2011. Recharge estimates for 1991 to 2011 were included in the updated model by using precipitation, streamflow, canal diversions, and irrigation groundwater withdrawals for each year. The model was evaluated to determine how well it simulates groundwater conditions during recent increased withdrawals and drought, and to determine if the model is adequate for use in future planning. In southern Utah Valley, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level fluctuation simulated by the updated model reasonably match measured water-level changes, but they do not simulate as much decline as was measured in some locations from 2000 to 2002. Both the rapid increase in groundwater withdrawals and the total groundwater withdrawals in southern Utah Valley during this period exceed the variations and magnitudes simulated during the 1949 to 1990 calibration period. It is possible that hydraulic properties may be locally incorrect or that changes, such as land use or irrigation diversions, occurred that are not simulated. In the northern part of Goshen Valley, simulated water-level changes reasonably match measured changes. Farther south, however, simulated declines are much less than measured declines. Land-use changes indicate that groundwater withdrawals in Goshen Valley are possibly greater than estimated and simulated. It is also possible that irrigation methods, amount of diversions, or other factors have changed that are not simulated or that aquifer properties are incorrectly simulated. The model can be used for projections about the effects of future groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge in southern Utah Valley, but rapid changes in withdrawals and increasing withdrawals dramatically may reduce the accuracy of the predicted water-level and groundwater-budget changes. The model should not be used for projections in Goshen Valley until additional withdrawal and discharge data are collected and the model is recalibrated if necessary. Model projections indicate large drawdowns of up to 400 feet and complete cessation of natural discharge in some areas with potential future increases in water use. Simulated managed aquifer recharge counteracts those effects. Groundwater management examples indicate that drawdown could be less, and discharge at selected springs could be greater, with optimized groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge than without optimization. Recalibration to more recent stresses and seasonal stress periods, and collection of new withdrawal, stream, land-use, and discharge data could improve the model fit to water-level changes and the accuracy of predictions.

Utah↗

USGS2023

Groundwater potentiometric-surface altitude in 2022 and groundwater-level changes between 1968, 1991, and 2022, in the alluvial aquifer in the Big Lost River Valley, south-central Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Idaho Department of Water Resources measured groundwater levels during spring 2022 and autumn 2022 to create detailed potentiometric-surface maps for the alluvial aquifer in the Big Lost River Valley in south-central Idaho. Wells were assigned to shallow, intermediate, and deep water-bearing units based on well depth, groundwater potentiometric-surface altitude, and hydrogeologic unit. Potentiometric-surface contours were created for each of the three water-bearing units for spring 2022 and autumn 2022. Groundwater flow generally follows topography down valley to the south. The groundwater-level data also were used to calculate changes in groundwater levels from spring to autumn 2022 and from historical measurement events in 1968 and 1991 to 2022. Groundwater levels declined at most wells from spring 1968 to spring 2022 and from spring 1991 to spring 2022. Although groundwater-level changes are sensitive to interannual wet and dry periods, long-term groundwater-level declines suggest that recharge and down-valley groundwater flows are insufficient to fully recover groundwater-level declines from pumping in some parts of the alluvial aquifer in the Big Lost River Valley.

Idaho↗

USGS2010

Estimation of groundwater use for a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas, 1864-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Congress, is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to help characterize how much water is available now, how water availability is changing, and how much water can be expected to be available in the future. The Great Lakes Basin Pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey national assessment of water availability and use focused on the Great Lakes Basin and included detailed studies of the processes governing water availability in the Great Lakes Basin. One of these studies included the development of a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin. This report describes the compilation and estimation of the groundwater withdrawals in those areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois that were needed for the Lake Michigan Basin study groundwater-flow model. These data were aggregated for 12 model time intervals spanning 1864 to 2005 and were summarized by model area, model subregion, category of water use, aquifer system, aquifer type, and hydrogeologic unit model layer. The types and availability of information on groundwater withdrawals vary considerably among states because water-use programs often differ in the types of data collected and in the methods and frequency of data collection. As a consequence, the methods used to estimate and verify the data also vary. Additionally, because of the different sources of data and different terminologies applied for the purposes of this report, the water-use data published in this report may differ from water-use data presented in other reports. These data represent only a partial estimate of groundwater use in each state because estimates were compiled only for areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois within the Lake Michigan Basin model area. Groundwater-withdrawal data were compiled for both nearfield and farfield model areas in Wisconsin and Illinois, whereas these data were compiled primarily for the nearfield model area in Michigan and Indiana. Overall water use for the selected areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois was less during early time intervals than during more recent intervals, with large increases beginning around the 1960s. Total estimated groundwater withdrawals for model input range from 18.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for interval 1 (1864-1900) to 1,280.25 Mgal/d for interval 12 (2001-5). Withdrawals for the public-supply category make up the majority of the withdrawals in each of the four states. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the second largest withdrawals are for the irrigation category; in Indiana and Illinois, industrial withdrawals account for the second largest withdrawal amounts. The smallest withdrawals are for miscellaneous uses in Wisconsin and irrigation uses in Indiana and Illinois. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Northeastern Illinois, and the farfield model area are generally larger than in the other model subregions. Withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the Quaternary aquifer system, whereas withdrawals in Illinois are predominantly from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Withdrawals in Wisconsin are about equal from the Quaternary and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the unconfined unconsolidated aquifer type. Withdrawals in Illinois are largely from the deep confined bedrock aquifer type, although they decreased considerably in more recent time intervals. Wisconsin withdrawals are about equal from unconfined unconsolidated and deep confined bedrock aquifer types. Groundwater-withdrawal estimates in Wisconsin were compiled for the 47 easternmost counties within the boundary of the Lake Michigan Basin model, of which 32 counties, though not entirely contained, are at least partly within the Lake Michigan Basin. Overall, 6,457 withdrawal locations were estima

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Groundwater-flow model and effects of projected groundwater use in the Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System in the vicinity of Greene County, Missouri — 1907-2030

Recent and historical periods of rapid growth have increased the stress on the groundwater resources in the Ozark aquifer in the Greene County, Missouri area. Historical pumpage from the Ozark aquifer has caused a cone of depression beneath Springfield, Missouri. In an effort to ease its dependence on groundwater for supply, the city of Springfield built a pipeline in 1996 to bring water from Stockton Lake to the city. Rapid population growth in the area coupled with the expanding cone of depression raised concern about the sustainability of groundwater as a resource for future use. A groundwater-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Greene County, Missouri, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to assess the effect that increased groundwater demand is having on the long-term availability of groundwater in and around Greene County, Missouri. Three hydrogeologic units were represented in the groundwater-flow model: the Springfield Plateau aquifer, the Ozark confining unit, and the Ozark aquifer. The Springfield Plateau aquifer is less than 350 feet thick in the model area and generally is a low yield aquifer suitable only for domestic use. The Ozark aquifer is composed of a more than 900-foot thick sequence of dolomite and sandstone in the model area and is the primary aquifer throughout most of southern Missouri. Wells open to the entire thickness of the Ozark aquifer typically yield 1,000 gallons per minute or more. Between the two aquifers is the Ozark confining unit composed of as much as 98 feet of shale and limestone. Karst features such as sinkholes, springs, caves, and losing streams are present in both aquifers, but the majority of these features occur in the Springfield Plateau aquifer. The solution-enlarged fracture and bedding plane conduits in the karst system, particularly in the Springfield Plateau aquifer, are capable of moving large quantities of groundwater through the aquifer in relatively short periods of time. Pumpage rates in the model area increased from 1,093,268 cubic feet per day in 1962 to 2,693,423 cubic feet per day in 1987 to 4,330,177 cubic feet per day in 2006. Annual precipitation ranged from 25.21 inches in 1953 to 62.45 inches in 1927 from 1915 to 2006 in the model area. Recharge to the model was calculated as 2.53 percent of the annual precipitation and was varied annually. Recharge was distributed over the model area based on land slope and was adjusted in the city limits of Springfield to account for the impervious surface. A groundwater model with annual stress periods from 1907 to 2030 was developed using a transient calibration period from 1987 to 2006 and a prediction period from 2007 to 2030 to simulate flow in the Springfield Plateau aquifer and the Ozark aquifer. For the model area of approximately 2,870 square miles, the model hydrogeologic units and hydraulic properties were discretized into 253 rows, 316 columns, and 3 layers with the layer boundaries crossing hydrogeologic unit boundaries in some areas. The horizontal cell spacing was 1,000 feet by 1,000 feet. The model was calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated head and observed water levels and simulated and observed flows in rivers and springs. Population and the associated groundwater use were estimated for 12 communities and the unincorporated area of Greene County based on past growth. Each was analyzed individually, and a low and high annual rate of growth relative to the 2006 population was computed for each community or group. Low growth rates ranged from 0.215 percent per year in Springfield to 6.997 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the low growth rate ranged from 5.2 percent in Springfield to 167.9 percent in Rogersville. High growth rates ranged from 0.236 percent per year in Springfield to 7.345 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the high growth rate ranged from 5.7 percent in Springfield to 176.3 percent in Rogersville. Response of the flow system to selected hypothetical pumping stresses and recharge conditions was simulated using the calibrated model. Seven hypothetical scenarios were simulated from 2007 to 2030 to test the effects of various stresses on the head in the Ozark aquifer. Hypothetical scenario 1 continued the 2006 pumping rates without change to the end of 2030. Scenario 2 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 3 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 4 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 5 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 6 and 7 had one new industrial well installed within the city limits of Springfield and one new industrial well installed about 3.5 miles east of Rogersville. Scenario 6 assumed a low population growth rate and scenario 7 assumed a high population growth rate. Results were compared by examining differences in head at the end of the simulation period. All scenarios examined resulted in potentiometric-surface declines from 2006 levels. Results from scenario 1 indicated that even with no increase in pumping, the potentiometric surface in the Springfield area continued to decline. The maximum decline of approximately 62 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface occurred in Springfield. The maximum decline from the 2006 potentiometric surface in scenarios 2 and 3 was approximately 203 feet and in scenarios 4 and 5 was approximately 207 feet. The drought occurring at the end of the simulation period tended to broaden the drawdown area relative to the drought at the beginning. Drought timing did not substantially affect the potentiometric surface in the Ozark aquifer except for where the Ozark aquifer was exposed. Although not a substantial difference, the high population growth rate scenarios tended to have larger declines than the low population growth rate scenarios. As in the previous scenarios, little difference was noted between the low and high growth rate in scenario 6 and 7. Scenarios 6 and 7 showed declines of more than 640 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface at the new well located in Springfield. The drawdown at the new wells decreased relatively quickly with increased distance from the well. Simulated head in the nearby cities of Nixa, Ozark, and Republic was nearly the same for scenarios 2 through 7 and was lower than the head predicted for scenario 1. Results from scenarios 2 through 7 indicate that the potentiometric surface in 2030 near these cities could decline 100 feet or more from the 2006 levels. Because model layers 2 and 3, representing the Ozark confining unit and most of the thickness of the Ozark aquifer, were simulated as confined, drawdown in the wells in the area of the Ozark aquifer that is unconfined or becomes unconfined during the simulation period will likely be under predicted.

Missouri↗