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Results for “Global Biogeochemical Cycles”

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USGS2010

Dissolved organic carbon export and internal cycling in small, headwater lakes

Carbon (C) cycling in freshwater lakes is intense but poorly integrated into our current understanding of overall C transport from the land to the oceans. We quantified dissolved organic carbon export (DOC X ) and compared it with modeled gross DOC mineralization (DOC R ) to determine whether hydrologic or within-lake processes dominated DOC cycling in a small headwaters watershed in Minnesota, USA. We also used DOC optical properties to gather information about DOC sources. We then compared our results to a data set of approximately 1500 lakes in the Eastern USA (Eastern Lake Survey, ELS, data set) to place our results in context of lakes more broadly. In the open-basin lakes in our watershed ( n = 5), DOC X ranged from 60 to 183 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , whereas DOC R ranged from 15 to 21 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , emphasizing that lateral DOC fluxes dominated. DOC X calculated in our study watershed clustered near the 75th percentile of open-basin lakes in the ELS data set, suggesting that these results were not unusual. In contrast, DOC X in closed-basin lakes ( n = 2) was approximately 5 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , whereas DOC R was 37 to 42 g C m −2 lake area yr −1 , suggesting that internal C cycling dominated. In the ELS data set, median DOC X was 32 and 12 g C m −2 yr −1 in open-basin and closed-basin lakes, respectively. Although not as high as what was observed in our study watershed, DOC X is an important component of lake C flux more generally, particularly in open-basin lakes.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2025

Organic matter availability and the production of methane-derived dissolved organic carbon at methane seeps

Methane seeps located along continental margins and slopes export sedimentary methane and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the ocean. The flux of these reduced carbon molecules from the seafloor into the ocean impacts ocean chemistry and supports deep-sea life. While significant effort has been made to understand how the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) regulates the release of methane from the seafloor, little is known about the production of DOC in association with AOM or its flux and fate in the ocean. We hypothesize a mechanism for methane incorporation into DOC at seeps and investigate the relationship between sediment total organic carbon (TOC) availability and the incorporation of methane-derived carbon into DOC at four methane seep regions along the Cascadia margin, with a range of microbial and thermogenic methane sources. At sites with <2.0 wt.% TOC (Hydrate Ridge and Bullseye Vent), up to 60%–80% of carbon in DOC is methane-carbon, much more than sites with >2.0 wt.% TOC (Astoria Canyon and Barkley Canyon). We attribute the greater methane contribution at the more TOC-limited sites to a greater role of AOM in the carbon cycle, whereas at the organic matter-rich sites, microbial competition for sulfate as an electron acceptor for organic matter decomposition limits AOM and hence the transfer of carbon from methane to DOC. We estimate that the global diffusive flux of methane-derived DOC from the seafloor is 0.07–10.1 Tg C/yr, contributing to the stock of DOC present in the deep ocean and/or fueling the deep-sea microbial loop.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Carbon budget of tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters of eastern North America

Carbon cycling in the coastal zone affects global carbon budgets and is critical for understanding the urgent issues of hypoxia, acidification, and tidal wetland loss. However, there are no regional carbon budgets spanning the three main ecosystems in coastal waters: tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters. Here we construct such a budget for eastern North America using historical data, empirical models, remote sensing algorithms, and process‐based models. Considering the net fluxes of total carbon at the domain boundaries, 59 ± 12% (± 2 standard errors) of the carbon entering is from rivers and 41 ± 12% is from the atmosphere, while 80 ± 9% of the carbon leaving is exported to the open ocean and 20 ± 9% is buried. Net lateral carbon transfers between the three main ecosystem types are comparable to fluxes at the domain boundaries. Each ecosystem type contributes substantially to exchange with the atmosphere, with CO 2 uptake split evenly between tidal wetlands and shelf waters, and estuarine CO 2 outgassing offsetting half of the uptake. Similarly, burial is about equal in tidal wetlands and shelf waters, while estuaries play a smaller but still substantial role. The importance of tidal wetlands and estuaries in the overall budget is remarkable given that they, respectively, make up only 2.4 and 8.9% of the study domain area. This study shows that coastal carbon budgets should explicitly include tidal wetlands, estuaries, shelf waters, and the linkages between them; ignoring any of them may produce a biased picture of coastal carbon cycling.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2014

Deep-sea coral record of human impact on watershed quality in the Mississippi River Basin

One of the greatest drivers of historical nutrient and sediment transport into the Gulf of Mexico is the unprecedented scale and intensity of land use change in the Mississippi River Basin. These landscape changes are linked to enhanced fluxes of carbon and nitrogen pollution from the Mississippi River, and persistent eutrophication and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Increased terrestrial runoff is one hypothesis for recent enrichment in bulk nitrogen isotope (δ 15 N) values, a tracer for nutrient source, observed in a Gulf of Mexico deep-sea coral record. However, unambiguously linking anthropogenic land use change to whole scale shifts in downstream Gulf of Mexico biogeochemical cycles is difficult. Here we present a novel approach, coupling a new tracer of agro-industrialization to a multiproxy record of nutrient loading in long-lived deep-sea corals collected in the Gulf of Mexico. We found that coral bulk δ 15 N values are enriched over the last 150–200 years relative to the last millennia, and compound-specific amino acid δ 15 N data indicate a strong increase in baseline δ 15 N of nitrate as the primary cause. Coral rhenium (Re) values are also strongly elevated during this period, suggesting that 34% of Re is of anthropogenic origin, consistent with Re enrichment in major world rivers. However, there are no pre-anthropogenic measurements of Re to confirm this observation. For the first time, an unprecedented record of natural and anthropogenic Re variability is documented through coral Re records. Taken together, these novel proxies link upstream changes in water quality to impacts on the deep-sea coral ecosystem.

Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2004

Surface deformations as indicators of deep ebullition fluxes in a large northern peatland

Peatlands deform elastically during precipitation cycles by small ( ±3 cm ) oscillations in surface elevation. In contrast, we used a Global Positioning System network to measure larger oscillations that exceeded 20 cm over periods of 4-12 hours during two seasonal droughts at a bog and fen site in northern Minnesota. The second summer drought also triggered 19 depressuring cycles in an overpressured stratum under the bog site. The synchronicity between the largest surface deformations and the depressuring cycles indicates that both phenomena are produced by the episodic release of large volumes of gas from deep semi-elastic compartments confined by dense wood layers. We calculate that the three largest surface deformations were associated with the release of 136 g CH4 m-2, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the annual average chamber fluxes measured at this site. Ebullition of gas from the deep peat may therefore be a large and previously unrecognized source of radiocarbon depleted methane emissions from northern peatlands.

Minnesota↗

USGS2017

Biological and land use controls on the isotopic composition of aquatic carbon in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Riverine ecosystems receive organic matter (OM) from terrestrial sources, internally produce new OM, and biogeochemically cycle and modify organic and inorganic carbon. Major gaps remain in the understanding of the relationships between carbon sources and processing in river systems. Here we synthesize isotopic, elemental, and molecular properties of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) system above Wabasha, MN, including the main stem Mississippi River and its four major tributaries (Minnesota, upper Mississippi, St. Croix, and Chippewa Rivers). Our goal was to elucidate how biological processing modifies the chemical and isotopic composition of aquatic carbon pools during transport downstream in a large river system with natural and man-made impoundments. Relationships between land cover and DOC carbon-isotope composition, absorbance, and hydrophobic acid content indicate that DOC retains terrestrial carbon source information, while the terrestrial POC signal is largely replaced by autochthonous organic matter, and DIC integrates the influence of in-stream photosynthesis and respiration of organic matter. The UMR is slightly heterotrophic throughout the year, but pools formed by low-head navigation dams and natural impoundments promote a shift towards autotrophic conditions, altering aquatic ecosystem dynamics and POC and DIC composition. Such changes likely occur in all major river systems affected by low-head dams and need to be incorporated into our understanding of inland water carbon dynamics and processes controlling CO 2 emissions from rivers, as new navigation and flood control systems are planned for future river and water resources management.

Upper Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2023

Inland water greenhouse gas budgets for RECCAP2: 1. State-of-the-art of global scale assessments

Inland waters are important sources of the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere. In the framework of the 2 nd phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2) initiative, we review the state of the art in estimating inland water GHG budgets at global scale, which has substantially advanced since the first phase of RECCAP nearly ten years ago. The development of increasingly sophisticated upscaling techniques, including statistical prediction and process based models, allows for spatially explicit estimates which are needed for regionalized assessments of continental GHG budgets such as those established for RECCAP. A few recent estimates also resolve the seasonal and/or interannual variability in inland water GHG emissions. Nonetheless, the global-scale assessment of inland water emissions remains challenging because of limited spatial and temporal coverage of observations and persisting uncertainties in the abundance and distribution of inland water surface areas. To decrease these uncertainties, more empirical work on the contributions of hot-spots and hot-moments to overall inland water GHG emissions is particularly needed.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2011

Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr-1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO 2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2023

Inland water greenhouse gas budgets for RECCAP2: 2. Regionalization and homogenization of estimates

Inland waters are important sources of the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere. In the framework of the 2 nd phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2) initiative, we synthesize existing estimates of GHG emissions from streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and homogenize them with regard to underlying global maps of water surface area distribution and the effects of seasonal ice cover. We then produce regionalized estimates of GHG emissions over 10 extensive land regions. According to our synthesis, inland water GHG emissions have a global warming potential of an equivalent emission of 13.5 (9.9-20.1) and 8.3 (5.7-12.7) Pg CO 2 -eq. yr -1 at a 20 and 100 year horizon (GWP 20 and GWP 100 ), respectively. Contributions of CO 2 dominate GWP 100 , with rivers being the largest emitter. For GWP 20 , lakes and rivers are equally important emitters, and the warming potential of CH 4 is more important than that of CO 2 . Contributions from N 2 O are about two orders of magnitude lower. Normalized to the area of RECCAP-2 regions, S-America and SE-Asia show the highest emission rates, dominated by riverine CO 2 emissions.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2007

Nitrification in the euphotic zone as evidenced by nitrate dual isotopic composition: Observations from Monterey Bay, California

Coupled measurements of nitrate (NO 3 − ), nitrogen (N), and oxygen (O) isotopic composition ( δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) were made in surface waters of Monterey Bay to investigate multiple N cycling processes occurring within surface waters. Profiles collected throughout the year at three sites exhibit a wide range of values, suggesting simultaneous and variable influence of both phytoplankton NO 3 − assimilation and nitrification within the euphotic zone. Specifically, increases in δ 18 O NO3 were consistently greater than those in δ 15 N NO3 . A coupled isotope steady state box model was used to estimate the amount of NO 3 − supplied by nitrification in surface waters relative to that supplied from deeper water. The model highlights the importance of the branching reaction during ammonium (NH 4 + ) consumption, in which NH 4 + either serves as a substrate for regenerated production or for nitrification. Our observations indicate that a previously unrecognized proportion of nitrate‐based productivity, on average 15 to 27%, is supported by nitrification in surface waters and should not be considered new production. This work also highlights the need for a better understanding of isotope effects of NH 4 + oxidation, NH 4 + assimilation, and NO 3 − assimilation in marine environments.

California↗

USGS2004

Weathering controls on mechanisms of carbon storage in grassland soils

On a sequence of soils developed under similar vegetation, temperature, and precipitation conditions, but with variations in mineralogical properties, we use organic carbon and 14C inventories to examine mineral protection of soil organic carbon. In these soils, 14C data indicate that the creation of slow-cycling carbon can be modeled as occurring through reaction of organic ligands with Al3+ and Fe3+ cations in the upper horizons, followed by sorption to amorphous inorganic Al compounds at depth. Only one of these processes, the chelation Al3+ and Fe3+ by organic ligands, is linked to large carbon stocks. Organic ligands stabilized by this process traverse the soil column as dissolved organic carbon (both from surface horizons and root exudates). At our moist grassland site, this chelation and transport process is very strongly correlated with the storage and long-term stabilization of soil organic carbon. Our 14C results show that the mechanisms of organic carbon transport and storage at this site follow a classic model previously believed to only be significant in a single soil order (Spodosols), and closely related to the presence of forests. The presence of this process in the grassland Alfisol, Inceptisol, and Mollisol soils of this chronosequence suggests that this process is a more significant control on organic carbon storage than previously thought. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2009

Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO 2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 by 0.53 PgC yr −1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr −1 , and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO 2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO 2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO 2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2012

Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m -2 yr -1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10–15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8–15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2014

Influences of glacial melt and permafrost thaw on the age of dissolved organic carbon in the Yukon River basin

Responses of near-surface permafrost and glacial ice to climate change are of particular significance for understanding long-term effects on global carbon cycling and carbon export by high-latitude northern rivers. Here we report Δ 14 C-dissolved organic carbon (DOC) values and dissolved organic matter optical data for the Yukon River, 15 tributaries of the Yukon River, glacial meltwater, and groundwater and soil water end-member sources draining to the Yukon River, with the goal of assessing mobilization of aged DOC within the watershed. Ancient DOC was associated with glacial meltwater and groundwater sources. In contrast, DOC from watersheds dominated by peat soils and underlain by permafrost was typically enriched in Δ 14 C indicating that degradation of ancient carbon stores is currently not occurring at large enough scales to quantitatively influence bulk DOC exports from those landscapes. On an annual basis, DOC exported was predominantly modern during the spring period throughout the Yukon River basin and became older through summer-fall and winter periods, suggesting that contributions of older DOC from soils, glacial meltwaters, and groundwater are significant during these months. Our data indicate that rapidly receding glaciers and increasing groundwater inputs will likely result in greater contributions of older DOC in the Yukon River and its tributaries in coming decades.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils

Wetlands represent the largest component of the terrestrial biological carbon pool and thus play an important role in global carbon cycles. Most global carbon budgets, however, have focused on dry land ecosystems that extend over large areas and have not accounted for the many small, scattered carbon -storing ecosystems such as tidal saline wetlands. We compiled data for 154 sites in mangroves and salt marshes from the western and eastern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, as well as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Ocean, and Gulf of Mexico. The set of sites spans a latitudinal range from 22.4°S in the Indian Ocean to 55.5°N in the northeastern Atlantic. The average soil carbon density of mangrove swamps (0.055 ± 0.004 g cm -3 ) is significantly higher than the salt marsh average (0.039 ± 0.003 g cm -3 ). Soil carbon density in mangrove swamps and Spartina patens marshes declines with increasing average annual temperature, probably due to increased decay rates at higher temperatures. In contrast, carbon sequestration rates were not significantly different between mangrove swamps and salt marshes. Variability in sediment accumulation rates within marshes is a major control of carbon sequestration rates masking any relationship with climatic parameters. Globally, these combined wetlands store at least 44.6 Tg C yr -1 and probably more, as detailed areal inventories are not available for salt marshes in China and South America. Much attention has been given to the role of freshwater wetlands, particularly northern peatlands, as carbon sinks. In contrast to peatlands, salt marshes and mangroves release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and store more carbon per unit area.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2018

Hydrologic controls of methane dynamics in karst subterranean estuaries

Karst subterranean estuaries (KSEs) extend into carbonate platforms along 12% of all coastlines. A recent study has shown that microbial methane (CH 4 ) consumption is an important component of the carbon cycle and food web dynamics within flooded caves that permeate KSEs. In this study, we obtained high‐resolution (~2.5‐day) temporal records of dissolved methane concentrations and its stable isotopic content (δ 13 C) to evaluate how regional meteorology and hydrology control methane dynamics in KSEs. Our records show that less methane was present in the anoxic fresh water during the wet season (4,361 ± 89 nM) than during the dry season (5,949 ± 132 nM), suggesting that the wet season hydrologic regime enhances mixing of methane and other constituents into the underlying brackish water. The δ 13 C of the methane (−38.1 ± 1.7‰) in the brackish water was consistently more 13 C‐enriched than fresh water methane (−65.4 ± 0.4‰), implying persistent methane oxidation in the cave. Using a hydrologically based mass balance model, we calculate that methane consumption in the KSE was 21–28 mg CH 4 ·m − 2 ·year − 1 during the 6‐month dry period, which equates to ~1.4 t of methane consumed within the 102‐ to 138‐km 2 catchment basin for the cave. Unless wet season methane consumption is much greater, the magnitude of methane oxidized within KSEs is not likely to affect the global methane budget. However, our estimates constrain the contribution of a critical resource for this widely distributed subterranean ecosystem.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2013

Inorganic carbon loading as a primary driver of dissolved carbon dioxide concentrations in the lakes and reservoirs of the contiguous United States

Accurate quantification of CO 2 flux across the air-water interface and identification of the mechanisms driving CO 2 concentrations in lakes and reservoirs is critical to integrating aquatic systems into large-scale carbon budgets, and to predicting the response of these systems to changes in climate or terrestrial carbon cycling. Large-scale estimates of the role of lakes and reservoirs in the carbon cycle, however, typically must rely on aggregation of spatially and temporally inconsistent data from disparate sources. We performed a spatially comprehensive analysis of CO 2 concentration and air-water fluxes in lakes and reservoirs of the contiguous United States using large, consistent data sets, and modeled the relative contribution of inorganic and organic carbon loading to vertical CO 2 fluxes. Approximately 70% of lakes and reservoirs are supersaturated with respect to the atmosphere during the summer (June–September). Although there is considerable interregional and intraregional variability, lakes and reservoirs represent a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere of approximately 40 Gg C d –1 during the summer. While in-lake CO 2 concentrations correlate with indicators of in-lake net ecosystem productivity, virtually no relationship exists between dissolved organic carbon and p CO 2,aq . Modeling suggests that hydrologic dissolved inorganic carbon supports p CO 2,aq in most supersaturated systems (to the extent that 12% of supersaturated systems simultaneously exhibit positive net ecosystem productivity), and also supports primary production in most CO 2 -undersaturated systems. Dissolved inorganic carbon loading appears to be an important determinant of CO 2 concentrations and fluxes across the air-water interface in the majority of lakes and reservoirs in the contiguous United States.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2001

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO 2 , climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO 2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2 . During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO 2 and O 2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O 2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO 2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO 2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO 2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗