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USGS2016

Value-focused framework for defining landscape-scale conservation targets

Conservation of natural resources can be challenging in a rapidly changing world and require collaborative efforts for success. Conservation planning is the process of deciding how to protect, conserve, and enhance or minimize loss of natural and cultural resources. Establishing conservation targets (also called indicators or endpoints), the measurable expressions of desired resource conditions, can help with site-specific up to landscape-scale conservation planning. Using conservation targets and tracking them through time can deliver benefits such as insight into ecosystem health and providing early warnings about undesirable trends. We describe an approach using value-focused thinking to develop statewide conservation targets for Florida. Using such an approach allowed us to first identify stakeholder objectives and then define conservation targets to meet those objectives. Stakeholders were able to see how their shared efforts fit into the broader conservation context, and also anticipate the benefits of multi-agency and -organization collaboration. We developed an iterative process for large-scale conservation planning that included defining a shared framework for the process, defining the conservation targets themselves, as well as developing management and monitoring strategies for evaluation of their effectiveness. The process we describe is applicable to other geographies where multiple parties are seeking to implement collaborative, large-scale biological planning.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗

USGS2008

Fort Collins Science Center: Fiscal Year 2007 Accomplishments

In Fiscal Year 2007 (FY07), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) continued research vital to U.S. Department of the Interior science and management needs and associated USGS programmatic goals. FORT work also supported the science needs of other government agencies as well as private cooperators. Specifically, FORT scientific research and technical assistance focused on client and partner needs and goals in the areas of biological information management, fisheries and aquatic systems, invasive species, status and trends of biological resources, terrestrial ecosystems, and wildlife resources. In addition, FORT's 5-year strategic plan was refined to incorporate focus areas identified in the USGS strategic science plan, including ecosystem-landscape analysis, global climate change, and energy and mineral resource development. As a consequence, several science projects initiated in FY07 were either entirely new research dor amplifications of existing work. Highlights of FORT project accomplishments are described below under the USGS science program with which each task is most closely associated. The work of FORT's 6 branches (Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications, Ecosystem Dynamics, Information Science, Invasive Species Science, Policy Analysis and Science Assistance, and Species and Habitats of Federal Interest) often involves major partnerships with other agencies or cooperation with other USGS disciplines (Geology, Geography, Water Resources) and the Geospatial Information Office.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Eighth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop and first The National Map Users Conference, Denver, Colorado, May 10-13, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is sponsoring the first The National Map Users Conference in conjunction with the eighth biennial Geographic Information Science (GIS) Workshop on May 10-13, 2011, in Lakewood, Colorado. The GIS Workshop will be held at the USGS National Training Center, located on the Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, Colorado, May 10-11. The National Map Users Conference will be held directly after the GIS Workshop at the Denver Marriott West, a convention hotel in the Lakewood, Colorado area, May 12-13. The National Map is designed to serve the Nation by providing geographic data and knowledge for government, industry, and public uses. The goal of The National Map Users Conference is to enhance communications and collaboration among the communities of users of and contributors to The National Map, including USGS, Department of the Interior, and other government GIS specialists and scientists, as well as the broader geospatial community. The USGS National Geospatial Program intends the conference to serve as a forum to engage users and more fully discover and meet their needs for the products and services of The National Map. The goal of the GIS Workshop is to promote advancement of GIS and related technologies and concepts as well as the sharing of GIS knowledge within the USGS GIS community. This collaborative opportunity for multi-disciplinary GIS and associated professionals will allow attendees to present and discuss a wide variety of geospatial-related topics. The Users Conference and Workshop collaboration will bring together scientists, managers, and data users who, through presentations, posters, seminars, workshops, and informal gatherings, will share accomplishments and progress on a variety of geospatial topics. During this joint event, attendees will have the opportunity to present or demonstrate their work; to develop their knowledge by attending hands-on workshops, seminars, and presentations given by professionals from USGS and other Federal Agencies, GIS related companies, and academia; and to network with other professionals to develop collaborative opportunities. Specific conference topics include scientific and modeling applications using The National Map, opportunities for partnerships, and advances in geospatial technologies. The first part of the week will be the GIS Workshop, offered as a pre-conference seminar. It will focus on hands-on GIS training and seminars concerning current topics of geospatial interest. The focus of the USGS GIS Workshop is to showcase specific techniques and concepts for using GIS in support of science. The presentations will be educational and not a marketing endeavor. To promote awareness of and interaction with selected USGS corporate and local science center data products, as well as promoting collaboration, a “GIS Olympics” event will be held Tuesday evening during the GIS Workshop. The second part of the week will feature interactive briefings and discussions on issues and opportunities of The National Map. The focus of the Users Conference will be on the role of The National Map in supporting science initiatives, emergency response, land and wildlife management, and other activities. All presentations at the Users Conference include use or innovations related to a The National Map data theme or application. On Wednesday evening, a poster session is being held as a combined event for all attendees and as a juncture between the events. On Thursday evening, the Henry Gannett Award will be presented. Additionally, poster awards will be presented. Several prominent speakers are featured at plenary sessions at The National Map Users Conference, including Deanna A. Archuleta, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, Department of the Interior; Dr. Barbara P. Buttenfield, Professor of Geography at the University of Colorado in Boulder; best-selling author Frederick Reuss; and Dr. Joel Scheraga, Senior Advisor for Climate Adaptation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Additionally, panel discussions have attracted participation from notable experts from government, academia, and the private sector. This Proceedings volume will serve as an activity reference for workshop attendees, as well as an archive of technical abstracts presented at the workshop. Author, co-author, and presenter names, affiliations, and contact information are listed with presentation titles with the abstracts. Some hands-on sessions are offered twice; in these instances, abstracts submitted for publication are presented in the proceedings on both days on which they are offered.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Full-service hotels, convenience stores, or fire escapes? Evaluating the functional role of stopover sites for Neotropical migrants following passage across the Gulf of Mexico in autumn

Nearctic Neotropical migratory songbirds incur the highest mortality during migration. En-route, songbirds rely on a network of stopover sites to rest, refuel, and/or seek refuge during poor weather. Conservation strategies prioritize protection of sites that best meet these needs. However, the specific function of a stopover site is expected to vary in relation to factors, such as geographic location, surrounding landscape, and weather. To identify sites with the highest conservation value for migratory songbirds, a conceptual framework was independently developed to classify sites into three functional categories based on their geographic and landscape features: fire escapes, convenience stores, and full-service hotels. The few attempts to empirically validate this framework have focused on temperate stopover sites. We evaluated the framework by testing the hypothesis that a site’s geographic and landscape characteristics can predict its function. We used capture and radio-tracking data at an island and mainland site in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico to quantify mean and variance in daily capture rate, body condition, stopover duration, and departure behavior during autumn, with a focus on four species: Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus), Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus), Gray Catbird (Dumetella carolinensis), and Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea). Our results supported our predictions that the island functions as a fire escape, providing refuge for very high numbers of birds after encountering crosswinds or headwinds over the Gulf of Mexico, and the mainland forest site serves as a full-service hotel. The framework provides valuable insight for strategic conservation planning and management of stopover sites for songbirds. We suggest future studies evaluate the framework’s application to non-forest bird species. Additionally, we encourage collaborative efforts to consolidate and integrate tracking data, capture data from migration banding stations, and radar-based bird density estimates across a broad geography to test the framework’s ability to inform conservation planning across species’ full migratory range.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2016

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2014

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada. Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency coordination, credentialing, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

Report↗

USGS2026

The Sedimentary Geochemistry and Paleoenvironments Project Phase 2 data release: An open data resource for the study of Earth's environmental history

Geochemical data from sedimentary rocks are the primary source of information regarding Earth's surface evolution through time, including its air and water envelopes and interactions with life and deep Earth processes. The Sedimentary Geochemistry and Paleoenvironments Project (SGP) is a scientific consortium centered around open data and community-driven development of cyberinfrastructure tools and resources for sedimentary geochemistry and Earth history. Here we describe the SGP Phase 2 data release, which focused on incorporating Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic (2500–1000 million years ago) data and better accommodating carbonate data. This data release was built through the involvement of >200 researchers worldwide in academia, government, and industry, and provides the largest available public data resource for our user community in the academic fields of geochemistry, sedimentology, tectonics, paleontology, Earth history, and paleoclimate, as well as the petroleum and minerals industries. The dataset now encompasses 126,006 samples and 4,132,371 geochemical analyses. In addition to direct entry by SGP Team Members, we have ingested and incorporated datasets from the Geoscience Australia OZCHEM database, the Alberta Geological Survey, and the Deep-Time Marine Sedimentary Element Database (DM-SED) compilation. This paper details sampling in the Phase 2 dataset with respect to age, geography, lithology, and other geological characteristics, documents access via our search website and API, discusses possible issues and/or biases in the dataset that could impact analyses, describes plans for governance and stewardship of data from Indigenous lands, and serves as the citable reference paper for the data release.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2022

Great Lakes spatial priorities study

Spatial data about the bathymetry, habitat characteristics, underlying geology, and other features of the ocean and inland seas are essential for decision-making. Marine research and management organizations use these data to help ensure safe navigation, promote sustainable fisheries, extract energy, and protect marine habitats in the coastal and ocean waters of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Laurentian Great Lakes. Many of these organizations may have overlapping or shared mapping interests without knowing it. In a multi-jurisdictional planning environment, it can be challenging and cumbersome to determine where other entities have shared or overlapping mapping interests, especially across a transnational region such as the Great Lakes. State and provincial governments, federal governments, academia, tribes and First Nations, and other stakeholders from both the U.S. and Canada all have mapping interests across Great Lakes waters. Identifying and communicating target geographies for new data collection that are shared among multiple organizations can both help to avoid redundancy of new mapping efforts, and create opportunities for greater efficiency through collaboration. To address this issue, a spatial priorities study was conducted using a geospatial tool developed by the National Ocean Services National Centers for Coastal and Ocean Science (NCCOS). The tool provided an easy-to-use online interface in which programs can identify their priorities in a simple and straightforward way. This study asked representatives of Great Lakes management and science organizations to identify the areas for which they needed maps of lakebed features on a near-term, mid-term, and long-term timeframe, and why. Then, the responses were analyzed and overlaid to determine areas of shared mapping need and opportunity and to determine the types of map products needed. The analysis revealed high interest among multiple organizations in discrete geographies including the Minnesota and Wisconsin shoreline from Duluth to the eastern extent of the Bayfield Peninsula, Green Bay in Lake Michigan, and the southern coastlines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the St. Marys River, and the northern Lake Superior coastal waters near Grand Portage, MN. Lower priority mapping interest were distributed widely across all lakes, but tended to be concentrated in nearshore areas (<30 m depth). The analysis also indicated that the top mapping justifications were Habitat/biota/natural area, Benthic exploration, Commercial and recreational fishing, and Scientific research. The top desired map product types were Elevation, Substrate/sub-bottom geologic characterization, and Habitat map/characterization, although participants on some lakes noted other less prevalent product types. Following from previously conducted NOAA and non-NOAA Federal spatial prioritization exercises, the results of this regional focus can help mapping organizations better understand how their priorities align with the needs of regional organizations, allow for more efficient coordination and funding, and enable partners to leverage assets and resources to fill their most pressing data and information gaps across Great Lakes waters. The U.S. Mapping Coordination Site hosts the results of this study and other spatial prioritization studies. Through this website, one can interact with the study results along with recent and planned mapping efforts. NOAA intends to update their spatial priorities on a three- to five-year basis. Future studies should strive to expand participation of federal agencies, state and local governments, federally-recognized tribes, academia, and private industry (among other stakeholders) to seek out ocean mapping partnerships in conjunction with the National Ocean Mapping, Exploration and Characterization (NOMEC) goals map once, use many times.”

Great Lakes↗

USGS2013

Prospects for Ukrainian ferrous metals in the post-Soviet period

Two specialists on the mineral industries of the countries of the former USSR survey current problems confronting producers of ferrous metals in Ukraine and future prospects for domestic production and exports. A series of observations documenting the importance of ferrous metals production to Ukraine's economy is followed by sections describing investment plans and needs in the sector, and the role played by Ukraine within the iron and steel industry of the Soviet Union. The focus then turns to assessment of the current regional and global competitive position of Ukrainian producers for each of the major commodities of the sector-iron ore, manganese ore, ferroalloys, steel, and the products of the machine manufacturing and metal working industries. In conclusion, the paper discusses a potential regional industrial integration strategy analogous to that employed in the United States' Great Lakes/Midwest region, which possesses similar types of iron ore deposits and similar transport cost advantages and metallurgical and manufacturing industries.

Post-Soviet Geography and Economics↗

USGS2021

Similarities and differences between two deadly Caribbean coral diseases: White plague and stony coral tissue loss disease

For several decades, white plagues (WPDs: WPD-I, II and III) and more recently, stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) have significantly impacted Caribbean corals. These diseases are often difficult to separate in the field as they produce similar gross signs. Here we aimed to compare what we know about WPD and SCTLD in terms of: (1) pathology, (2) etiology, and (3) epizootiology. We reviewed over 114 peer-reviewed publications from 1973 to 2021. Overall, WPD and SCTLD resemble each other macroscopically, mainly due to the rapid tissue loss they produce in their hosts, however, SCTLD has a more concise case definition. Multiple-coalescent lesions are often observed in colonies with SCTLD and rarely in WPD. A unique diagnostic sign of SCTLD is the presence of bleached circular areas when SCTLD lesions are first appearing in the colony. The paucity of histopathologic archives for WPDs for multiple species across geographies makes it impossible to tell if WPD is the same as SCTLD. Both diseases alter the coral microbiome. WPD is controversially regarded as a bacterial infection and more recently a viral infection, whereas for SCTLD the etiology has not been identified, but the putative pathogen, likely to be a virus, has not been confirmed yet. Most striking differences between WPD and SCTLD have been related to duration and phases of epizootic events and mortality rates. While both diseases may become highly prevalent on reefs, SCTLD seems to be more persistent even throughout years. Both transmit directly (contact) and horizontally (waterborne), but organism-mediated transmission is only proven for WPD-II. Given the differences and similarities between these diseases, more detailed information is needed for a better comparison. Specifically, it is important to focus on: (1) tagging colonies to look at disease progression and tissue mortality rates, (2) tracking the fate of the epizootic event by looking at initial coral species affected, the features of lesions and how they spread over colonies and to a wider range of hosts, (3) persistence across years, and (4) repetitive sampling to look at changes in the microbiome as the disease progresses. Our review shows that WPDs and SCTLD are the major causes of coral tissue loss recorded in the Caribbean.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS1996

Meeting summary - Coastal meteorology and oceanography: Report of the third prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PDTs) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provide advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a principal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendations to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 focused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2 on observational issues; PDT-3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 was convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal weather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategies. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discussion. First, the lack of data in and over critical regions of the ocean, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather prediction. Strategies for data collection and dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere and ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction experiments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest that future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather will be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effects of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view was expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coastal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affected weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit from such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting for Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal flash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge events. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Conflation and integration of archived geologic maps and associated uncertainties

Old, archived geologic maps are often available with little or no associated metadata. This creates special problems in terms of extracting their data to use with a modern database. This research focuses on some problems and uncertainties associated with conflating older geologic maps in regions where modern geologic maps are, as yet, non-existent as well as vertically integrating the conflated maps with layers of modern GIS data (in this case, The National Map of the U.S. Geological Survey). Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri was chosen as the test area. It is covered by six archived geologic maps constructed in the years between 1928 and 1994. Conflating these maps results in a map that is internally consistent with these six maps, is digitally integrated with hydrography, elevation and orthoimagery data, and has a 95% confidence interval useful for further data set integration.

Journal of Geography and Geology↗

USGS2012

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A.

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.

Oregon↗

USGS2010

Stakeholder perspectives on land-use strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards: Sarasota, Florida

Sustainable land-use planning requires decision makers to balance community growth with resilience to natural hazards. This balance is especially difficult in many coastal communities where planners must grapple with significant growth projections, the persistent threat of extreme events (e.g., hurricanes), and climate-change-driven sea level rise that not only presents a chronic hazard but also alters the spatial extent of sudden-onset hazards such as hurricanes. We examine these stressors on coastal, long-term land-use planning by reporting the results of a one-day community workshop held in Sarasota County, Florida that included focus groups and participatory mapping exercises. Workshop participants reflected various political agendas and socioeconomic interests of five local knowledge domains: business, environment, emergency management and infrastructure, government, and planning. Through a series of alternating domain-specific focus groups and interactive plenary sessions, participants compared the county 2050 comprehensive land-use plan to maps of contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazard zones and projected storm-surge hazard zones enlarged by sea level rise scenarios. This interactive, collaborative approach provided each group of domain experts the opportunity to combine geographically-specific, scientific knowledge on natural hazards and climate change with local viewpoints and concerns. Despite different agendas, interests, and proposed adaptation strategies, there was common agreement among participants for the need to increase community resilience to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to explore adaptation strategies to combat the projected, enlarged storm-surge hazard zones.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: The benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant ( P , 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2015

Geological processes and orchid biogeography with applications to southeast central America

This contribution owes its origins to a paper presentation by Dr. Calloway H. Dodson at the Second International Conference on Neotropical Orchidology held in San José, Costa Rica in May of2003 (Dodson 2003). Dr. Dodson outlined some ofthe reasons to suspect that regional geological fac-tors may play important roles in orchid speciation and biogeography and gave examples from the northwestern South America. He also suggested that evolutionary change in orchid might occur over fairly short time periods, perhaps even as short as decades, centuries or millennia (Dodson 2003, SHK lecture notes). These ideas stimulated the author, a professional earth scientist, to begin thinking about how these exciting ideas could begin to be tested in Costa Rica neighboring and Central American countries, an area that has drawn him to return frequently over the last decade. The present contribution is a proposal for integrating geological observations, such as the chronology of arc volcanic activity in Nicaragua,Costa Rica, and Panama, in hypothesis forming and testing of the geographic distribution of orchids (and possibly other biota). I initially focus on comparisons between orchid inventories on the windward slopes of mountainous regions (elevation > 1000 m)with high rainfall (> 1-2 m) in tropical regions, the so-called tropical cloud forests. These regions represent the tropical pre-montane rain forestto lower montane tropical rain forest life zones of Holdridge(1967) and the montane vegetation zone applied to Costa Rica and Panama by Dressler (1993). An important message of this paper is that such tropical mountainous regions are not necessarily static, but may change in elevation over geologic time due to active tectonic deformation and uplift and that the presence of active volcanism in a mountain range may also introduce additional chemical factors, such as volcanic gases, acid rain, and volcanic soils, and also physical factors, such as interruption of gene flow by explosive eruptions and coverage by their air fall products such as ash (tephra), lava flows, and lahars (volcanic mudflows). Thus over a given geological time interval, forests may be slowly increasing in elevation by tectonic uplift or by the accumulation of volcanic products such as steep-sided strato volcanoes (built from both lavas and tephra), or by down-slope accumulations of lava flows or lahars. Mountains may also lose elevation by erosion or by tectonic subsidence. As we shall see, tropical Central America shows an extraordinarily high level of tectonic and volcanic history that has changed its geography and, by implication, climate, life zones,and likely orchid distribution. My working hypo thesis put forward for testing is that orchid adaptations to these changes may have led to the development of new species and endemism in this region.

Lankesteriana↗

USGS2014

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Washington↗