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Results for “Environmental Research Letters”

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USGS2018

Dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen release from boreal Holocene permafrost and seasonally frozen soils of Alaska

Permafrost (perennially frozen) soils store vast amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) that are vulnerable to mobilization as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen (DON, DIN) upon thaw. Such releases will affect the biogeochemistry of permafrost regions, yet little is known about the chemical composition and source variability of active-layer (seasonally frozen) and permafrost soil DOC, DON and DIN. We quantified DOC, total dissolved N (TDN), DON, and DIN leachate yields from deep active-layer and near-surface boreal Holocene permafrost soils in interior Alaska varying in soil C and N content and radiocarbon age to determine potential release upon thaw. Soil cores were collected at three sites distributed across the Alaska boreal region in late winter, cut in 15 cm thick sections, and deep active-layer and shallow permafrost sections were thawed and leached. Leachates were analyzed for DOC, TDN, nitrate (NO 3 − ), and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations, dissolved organic matter optical properties, and DOC biodegradability. Soils were analyzed for C, N, and radiocarbon ( 14 C) content. Soil DOC, TDN, DON, and DIN yields increased linearly with soil C and N content, and decreased with increasing radiocarbon age. These relationships were significantly different for active-layer and permafrost soils such that for a given soil C or N content, or radiocarbon age, permafrost soils released more DOC and TDN (mostly as DON) per gram soil than active-layer soils. Permafrost soil DOC biodegradability was significantly correlated with soil Δ 14 C and DOM optical properties. Our results demonstrate that near-surface Holocene permafrost soils preserve greater relative potential DOC and TDN yields than overlying seasonally frozen soils that are exposed to annual leaching and decomposition. While many factors control the fate of DOC and TDN, the greater relative yields from newly thawed Holocene permafrost soils will have the largest potential impact in areas dominated by organic-rich soils.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events and implications for decision-making

December–February precipitation in southern Africa during recent El Niño events is studied by distinguishing circulation and precipitation responses during strong and moderate-to-weak events. We find that while both strong and moderate-to-weak El Niño events tend to dry southern Africa, the pattern and magnitude of precipitation anomalies in the region are different, with strong El Niño events resulting in rainfall deficits often less than −0.88 standardized units and deficits of only about half that for the moderate-to-weak case. Additionally, the likelihood of southern Africa receiving less than climatologic precipitation is approximately 80% for strong El Niño events compared to just over 60% for moderate-to-weak El Niño. Strong El Niño events are found to substantially disrupt onshore moisture transports from the Indian Ocean and increase geopotential heights within the Angola Low. Since El Niño is the most predictable component of the climate system that influences southern Africa precipitation, the information provided by this assessment of the likelihood of dry conditions can serve to benefit early warning systems.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Limited nitrate retention capacity in the Upper Mississippi River

The Mississippi River and other large rivers have the potential to regulate nitrogen export from terrestrial landscapes, and thus mitigate eutrophication in downstream aquatic ecosystems. In large rivers, human-constructed impoundments and connected backwaters may facilitate nitrogen removal; however, the capacity of these features is poorly quantified and incompletely incorporated into model frameworks. Using a high-resolution and spatially intensive sampling technique, we assessed the contribution of individual navigation pools, as well as impounded open waters and backwater wetlands within them, to overall nitrate retention by mapping the entire length (1370 km) of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) main channel. Based on this single spatial survey of water chemistry, the river appeared to act primarily as a passive nitrate transporter, retaining only 12.5% of the incoming load, most of which occurred in the upper 150 km of the river, which includes the largest and only naturally impounded reach of the river. Although reservoirs typically are nitrogen sinks, our data indicate that UMR dams do not impede river flows to the extent necessary to promote substantial changes in water residence times and subsequent nitrogen removal. Backwaters routinely had lower nitrate concentrations than the main channel, but their limited hydrologic connectivity to the through-flowing river channel constrained their influence on downstream export. As a whole, the UMR did not remove a substantial proportion of its nitrate load despite optimal N removal conditions, numerous impoundments, and the presence of extensive backwater habitats. These results suggest that efforts to reduce delivery of nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico should emphasize mitigation strategies that target upland nutrient sources rather than relying on removal within the Mississippi River.

Upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2018

The influence of spatiotemporally decoupled land use on honey bee colony health and pollination service delivery

Societal dependence on insects for pollination of agricultural crops has risen amidst concerns over pollinator declines. Habitat loss and lack of forage have been implicated in the decline of both managed and native pollinators. Land use changes in the Northern Great Plains of the US, a region supporting over 1 million honey bee colonies annually, have shifted away from historical grassland ecosystems bees rely on for forage toward landscapes dominated by corn, soybeans, and other row crops. We investigated how land use impacts honey bee colony population size during the growing season and subsequent colony population size for almond pollination in central California the following February. We provide estimates of how land use affects beekeeper economics by linking summer habitat with pollination service payments and later production of new colonies. Our results demonstrate that a greater presence of non-bee foraged agricultural crops surrounding apiaries in the summer results in smaller colonies by the end of the growing season. Apiaries with colonies exhibiting smaller population size in the autumn were also smaller during almond pollination the following spring; impacting the beekeeper with a reduced per colony rental fee for pollination services and reduced potential for creating new spring colonies, based on prior growing season land use. This study highlights the downstream effects of factors driving land use decisions on the ability of beekeepers to provide robust honey bee colonies to support the pollination industry on a national scale. It also demonstrates the direct linkages between habitat in the Northern Great Plains, bee health, and pollination services rendered elsewhere in the US.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

A multidisciplinary framework to derive global river reach classifications at high spatial resolution

Projected climate and environmental change are expected to increase the pressure on global freshwater resources. To prepare for and cope with the related risks, stakeholders need to devise plans for sustainable management of river systems, which in turn requires the identification of management-appropriate operational units, such as groups of rivers that share similar environmental and biological characteristics. Ideally, these units are of a manageable size, and are biotically or abiotically distinguishable across a variety of river types. Here, we aim to address this need by presenting a new global river classification framework (GloRiC) to establish a common vocabulary and standardized approach to the development of globally comprehensive and integrated river classifications that can be tailored to different goals and requirements. We define the GloRiC conceptual framework based on five categories of variables: (1) hydrology; (2) physiography and climate; (3) fluvial geomorphology; (4) water chemistry; and (5) aquatic biology. We then apply the framework using hydro-environmental attributes provided by a seamless high-resolution river reach database to create initial instances of three sub-classifications (hydrologic, physio-climatic, and geomorphic) which we ultimately combine into 127 river reach types at the global scale. These supervised classifications utilize a mix of statistical analyses and expert interpretation to identify the classifier variables, the number of classes, and their thresholds. In addition, we also present an unsupervised, multivariable k-means statistical clustering of all river reaches into 30 groups. These first-of-their-kind global river reach classifications at high spatial resolution provide baseline information for a total of 35.9 million kilometers of rivers that have been assessed in this study, and are expected to be particularly useful in remote or data-poor river basins. The GloRiC framework and associated data are primarily designed for broad and rapid applicability in assessments that require stratified analyses of river ecosystem conditions at global and regional scales; smaller-scale applications could follow the same conceptual framework yet use more detailed data sources.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Uncertainty in United States coastal wetland greenhouse gas inventorying

Coastal wetlands store carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and emit CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) making them an important part of greenhouse gas (GHG) inventorying. In the contiguous United States (CONUS), a coastal wetland inventory was recently calculated by combining maps of wetland type and change with soil, biomass, and CH 4 flux data from a literature review. We assess uncertainty in this developing carbon monitoring system to quantify confidence in the inventory process itself and to prioritize future research. We provide a value-added analysis by defining types and scales of uncertainty for assumptions, burial and emissions datasets, and wetland maps, simulating 10 000 iterations of a simplified version of the inventory, and performing a sensitivity analysis. Coastal wetlands were likely a source of net-CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions from 2006–2011. Although stable estuarine wetlands were likely a CO 2 e sink, this effect was counteracted by catastrophic soil losses in the Gulf Coast, and CH 4 emissions from tidal freshwater wetlands. The direction and magnitude of total CONUS CO 2 e flux were most sensitive to uncertainty in emissions and burial data, and assumptions about how to calculate the inventory. Critical data uncertainties included CH 4 emissions for stable freshwater wetlands and carbon burial rates for all coastal wetlands. Critical assumptions included the average depth of soil affected by erosion events, the method used to convert CH 4 fluxes to CO 2 e, and the fraction of carbon lost to the atmosphere following an erosion event. The inventory was relatively insensitive to mapping uncertainties. Future versions could be improved by collecting additional data, especially the depth affected by loss events, and by better mapping salinity and inundation gradients relevant to key GHG fluxes.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

Eroding permafrost coasts are indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008 and 2017 for a 9-km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007 to 2016 decade was 17.2 m yr-1, which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr-1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr-1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Fire and tree death: Understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality

Each year wildland fires kill and injure trees on millions of forested hectares globally, affecting plant and animal biodiversity, carbon storage, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem services. The underlying mechanisms of fire-caused tree mortality remain poorly understood, however, limiting the ability to accurately predict mortality and develop robust modeling applications, especially under novel future climates. Virtually all post-fire tree mortality prediction systems are based on the same underlying empirical model described in Ryan and Reinhardt (1988 Can. J. For. Res. 18 1291–7), which was developed from a limited number of species, stretching model assumptions beyond intended limits. We review the current understanding of the mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality, provide recommended standardized terminology, describe model applications and limitations, and conclude with key knowledge gaps and future directions for research. We suggest a two-pronged approach to future research: (1) continued improvements and evaluations of empirical models to quantify uncertainty and incorporate new regions and species and (2) acceleration of basic, physiological research on the proximate and ultimate causes of fire-induced tree mortality to incorporate processes of tree death into models. Advances in both empirical and process fire-induced tree modeling will allow creation of hybrid models that could advance understanding of how fire injures and kills trees, while improving prediction accuracy of fire-driven feedbacks on ecosystems and landscapes, particularly under novel future conditions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Using research networks to create the comprehensive datasets needed to assess nutrient availability as a key determinant of terrestrial carbon cycling

A wide range of research shows that nutrient availability strongly influences terrestrial carbon (C) cycling and shapes ecosystem responses to environmental changes and hence terrestrial feedbacks to climate. Nonetheless, our understanding of nutrient controls remains far from complete and poorly quantified, at least partly due to a lack of informative, comparable, and accessible datasets at regional-to-global scales. A growing research infrastructure of multi-site networks are providing valuable data on C fluxes and stocks and are monitoring their responses to global environmental change and measuring responses to experimental treatments. These networks thus provide an opportunity for improving our understanding of C-nutrient cycle interactions and our ability to model them. However, coherent information on how nutrient cycling interacts with observed C cycle patterns is still generally lacking. Here, we argue that complementing available C-cycle measurements from monitoring and experimental sites with data characterizing nutrient availability will greatly enhance their power and will improve our capacity to forecast future trajectories of terrestrial C cycling and climate. Therefore, we propose a set of complementary measurements that are relatively easy to conduct routinely at any site or experiment and that, in combination with C cycle observations, can provide a robust characterization of the effects of nutrient availability across sites. In addition, we discuss the power of different observable variables for informing the formulation of models and constraining their predictions. Most widely available measurements of nutrient availability often do not align well with current modelling needs. This highlights the importance to foster the interaction between the empirical and modelling communities for setting future research priorities.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Investigating lake-area dynamics across a permafrost-thaw spectrum using airborne electromagnetic surveys and remote sensing time-series data in Yukon Flats, Alaska

Lakes in boreal lowlands cycle carbon and supply an important source of freshwater for wildlife and migratory waterfowl. The abundance and distribution of these lakes are supported, in part, by permafrost distribution, which is subject to change. Relationships between permafrost thaw and lake dynamics remain poorly known in most boreal regions. Here, new airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collected during June 2010 and February 2016 were used to constrain deep permafrost distribution. AEM data were coupled with Landsat-derived lake surface-area data from 1979 through 2011 to inform temporal lake behavior changes in the 35 500- km 2 Yukon Flats ecoregion of Alaska. Together, over 1500 km of AEM data, and roughly 30 years of Landsat data were used to explore processes that drive lake dynamics across a variety of permafrost thaw states not possible in studies conducted with satellite imagery or field measurements alone. Clustered time-series data identified lakes with similar temporal dynamics. Clusters possessed similarities in lake permanence (i.e. ephemeral versus perennial), subsurface permafrost distribution, and proximity to rivers and streams. Of the clustered lakes, ~66% are inferred to have at least intermittent connectivity with other surface-water features, ~19% are inferred to have shallow subsurface connectivity to other surface water features that served as a low-pass filter for hydroclimatic fluctuations, and ~15% appear to be isolated by surrounding permafrost (i.e. no connectivity). Integrated analysis of AEM and Landsat data reveals a progression from relatively synchronous lake dynamics among disconnected lakes in the most spatially continuous, thick permafrost to quite high spatiotemporal heterogeneity in lake behavior among variably-connected lakes in regions with notably less continuous permafrost. Variability can be explained by the preferential development of thawed permeable gravel pathways for lateral water redistribution in this area. The general spatial progression in permafrost thaw state and lake area behavior may be extended to the temporal dimension. However, extensive permafrost thaw, beyond what is currently observed, is expected to promote ubiquitous subsurface connectivity, eventually evolving to a state of increased lake synchronicity.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Development of perennial thaw zones in boreal hillslopes enhances potential mobilization of permafrost carbon

Permafrost thaw alters subsurface flow in boreal regions that in turn influences the magnitude, seasonality, and chemical composition of streamflow. Prediction of these changes is challenged by incomplete knowledge of timing, flowpath depth, and amount of groundwater discharge to streams in response to thaw. One important phenomenon that may affect flow and transport through boreal hillslopes is development of lateral perennial thaw zones (PTZs), the existence of which is here supported by geophysical observations and cryohydrogeologic modeling. Model results link thaw to enhanced and seasonally-extended baseflow, which have implications for mobilization of soluble constituents. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of PTZ development to organic layer thickness and near-surface factors that mediate heat exchange at the atmosphere/ground-surface interface. Study findings suggest that PTZs serve as a detectable precursor to accelerated permafrost degradation. This study provides important contextual insight on a fundamental thermo-hydrologic process that can enhance terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon, nitrogen, and mercury previously sequestered in thawing watersheds.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971 to 2017

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) (AMAP, 2017) identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003 to 2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in-situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 18 (> 55 °N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971 to 2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sealevel contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in-situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971 to 2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ~55° N to be 23.0±12.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sealevel rise curves exhibit an acceleration, especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971 to 2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015) (M15). However, we find a 1.36x lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sealevel budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sealevel contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) “present day” (2005-2015) and “recent past” (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle: Patterns, drivers, and socio-environmental impacts

The increasing global demand for farmland products is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and its water resources. Many regions of the world, that are affected by a chronic water scarcity relative to their population, strongly depend on the import of agricultural commodities and associated embodied (or virtual) water. The globalization of water through virtual water trade is leading to a displacement of water use and a disconnection between human populations and the water resources they rely on. Despite the recognized importance of these phenomena in reshaping the patterns of water dependence through teleconnections between consumers and producers, their effect on global and regional water resources has just started to be quantified. This review investigates the global spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and impacts of virtual water trade through an integrated analysis of surface water, groundwater, and root-zone soil moisture consumption for agricultural production; it evaluates how virtual water flows compare to the major “physical water fluxes” in the Earth System; and provides a new reconceptualization of the hydrologic cycle to account also for the role of water redistribution by the hidden ‘virtual water cycle’.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Mechanisms of a coniferous refugium persistence under drought and heat

Predictions of warmer droughts causing increasing forest mortality are becoming abundant, yet few studies have investigated the mechanisms of forest persistence. To examine the resistance of forests to warmer droughts, we used a five-year precipitation reduction (~45% removal), heat (+4 °C above ambient) and combined drought and heat experiment in an isolated stand of mature Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma . Despite severe experimental drought and heating, no trees died, and we observed only minor evidence of hydraulic failure or carbon starvation. Two mechanisms promoting survival were supported. First, access to bedrock water, or 'hydraulic refugia' aided trees in their resistance to the experimental conditions. Second, the isolation of this stand amongst a landscape of dead trees precluded ingress by Ips confusus , frequently the ultimate biotic mortality agent of piñon. These combined abiotic and biotic landscape-scale processes can moderate the impacts of future droughts on tree mortality by enabling tree avoidance of hydraulic failure, carbon starvation, and exposure to attacking abiotic agents.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Cloud cover and delayed herbivory relative to timing of spring onset interact to dampen climate change impacts on net ecosystem exchange in a coastal Alaskan wetland

Rapid warming in northern ecosystems over the past four decades has resulted in earlier spring, increased precipitation, and altered timing of plant–animal interactions, such as herbivory. Advanced spring phenology can lead to longer growing seasons and increased carbon (C) uptake. Greater precipitation coincides with greater cloud cover possibly suppressing photosynthesis. Timing of herbivory relative to spring phenology influences plant biomass. None of these changes are mutually exclusive and their interactions could lead to unexpected consequences for Arctic ecosystem function. We examined the influence of advanced spring phenology, cloud cover, and timing of grazing on C exchange in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of western Alaska for three years. We combined advancement of the growing season using passive-warming open-top chambers (OTC) with controlled timing of goose grazing (early, typical, and late season) and removal of grazing. We also monitored natural variation in incident sunlight to examine the C exchange consequences of these interacting forcings. We monitored net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) hourly using an autochamber system. Data were used to construct daily light curves for each experimental plot and sunlight data coupled with a clear-sky model was used to quantify daily and seasonal NEE over a range of incident sunlight conditions. Cloudy days resulted in the largest suppression of NEE, reducing C uptake by approximately 2 g C m −2 d −1 regardless of the timing of the season or timing of grazing. Delaying grazing enhanced C uptake by approximately 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Advancing spring phenology reduced C uptake by approximately 1.5 g C m −2 d −1 , but only when plots were directly warmed by the OTCs; spring advancement did not have a long-term influence on NEE. Consequently, the two strongest drivers of NEE, cloud cover and grazing, can have opposing effects and thus future growing season NEE will depend on the magnitude of change in timing of grazing and incident sunlight.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Identifying changing precipitation extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa with gauge and satellite products

Sparse gauge networks in Sub-Saharan Africa limit our ability to identify changing precipitation extremes with in situ observations. Given the potential for satellite and satellite-gauge precipitation products to help, we investigate how daily gridded gauge and satellite products compare for seven core climate change precipitation indices. According to a new gauge-only product, the Rainfall estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN), there were notable changes in Sub-Saharan Africa precipitation characteristics between 1950 and 2013 in well-gauged areas. We examine these trends and how these vary for wet, intermediate, and dry areas. For a 31 year period of overlap we compare REGEN data, other gridded products, and three satellite products. Then for 1998-2013 we compare a set of twelve satellite products. Finally, we compare spatial patterns of 1983-2013 trends across all of Sub-Saharan Africa. Robust 1950-2013 trends indicate that in well-gauged areas extreme events became wetter, particularly in wet areas. Annual totals decreased due to fewer rain days. Since the 1980s were increases in average precipitation intensity and annual maximum 1-day totals. These trends only represent 15% of Sub-Saharan Africa, however, and only one tenth of the main wet areas. Unfortunately, gauge and satellite products do not provide consensus for wet area trends. A promising result for identifying regional changes is that numerous satellite products do well at interannual variations in precipitation totals and number of rain days- as well as some gauge-only products. Products perform less well for dry spell length and average intensity and worst for annual maximum 1-day totals. TRMM 3B42 and CHIRPS ranked highest for multiple indices. Several products have seemingly unrealistic trends outside of the well-gauged areas that may be due to influence of non-stationary systematic biases.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter (SOM) on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001 - 2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [∑(∆CWD, ∆AET, ∆RCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9 - 87.6 m3 x 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 x106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.

California↗

USGS2019

Review of indicators for comparing environmental effects across energy sources

Robust, quantitative comparisons of environmental effects across energy sources can support development of energy planning strategies that meet growing demand while managing and minimizing undesirable effects on environmental resources. Multicriteria analyses of energy systems often use a suite of indicators to make such comparisons, but those indicators and their units of measure vary among studies. We reviewed 179 papers that described or applied energy indicators to compare environmental effects of different primary energy sources to answer four questions: (1) what environmental indicators have been used in multicriteria energy-source comparisons? (2) across studies, how consistently are these indicators used to quantify effects? (3) to what degree are different effects accounted for across energy sources and locations? and (4) how comprehensive are indicators in terms of assessing known environmental effects? For reviewed studies, we quantified the number of unique indicators and the diversity of indicators used to measure different effects. We also recorded the specific measurement units applied to quantify each indicator, the energy sources evaluated, and the continent where each study was conducted. While we found that many environmental effects of energy development have been analyzed across multiple sources, indicators were frequently measured, interpreted, and applied in ways that are not directly comparable, and some known environmental effects were infrequently assessed. We also found an emphasis on applying indicators to renewable energy sources; assessing current and potential energy sources, both renewable and nonrenewable, would greatly clarify the full suite of tradeoffs among sources and can inform energy development strategies that minimize adverse environmental effects. Overall, our review indicated that making comprehensive comparisons of the effects of energy development across sources may require efforts to standardize how effects are measured, synthesize effects literature into an open-source database, expand the range of environmental effects analyzed, and establish consistent frameworks for comparison.

Environmental Research Letters↗