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A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental impact of oil development in northern Alaska

It is reported that in the spring of 1969 a high official of one of the oil companies was flying over the area of oil development in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay. He is quoted as saying "If the American people could see what we are doing to their land here, they would want to abolish the use of the reciprocating engine." The last really large area of wilderness in the United States is the' Brooks Range and the Arctic Coastal Plain which stretches from that range to the Arctic Ocean. The proving of the exploratory oil wells which have been drilled on the coastal plain in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay makes it virtually certain that this heretofore mostly unknown country will rapidly and vigorously be exposed to a variety of changes caused by the influx of men and their equipment. Even within the first four months of 1969 the whole aspect of the central part of the region has been importantly changed by the drilling programs of several large oil companies. So suddenly was this change brought about that no long-range plans have been developed either to soften the effect of such development on the natural environment or even to record the progress of these effects. Yet the absence of a plan provides an inadvertent potential advantage in that there has' been no history of increasingly firm Federal policy which, in other places, has often made it difficult to take newly conceived action in line with the increasing societal interest in environmental preservation. The lack of firm Federal policy provides here a unique opportunity for the application of new rules and investigative techniques aimed at minimizing the adverse effects on the environment while5.at the same time, not unduly hindering the development of the natural resources. But the speed with which the changes are being wrought makes it imperative that the principles applicable here to environmental protection or preservation, be enunciated immediately and that from these principles flow farsighted regulations which reflect the new interest in combining resource development with environmental protection. The present report constitutes a brief summary of the conditions existing in northern Alaska in the spring of 1969, presenting some inferences on the environmental changes which can be expected in the future and offering some specific steps which, if taken immediately and positively, could greatly ameliorate the adverse effects of rapid development in the absence of positive steps for environmental protection. In that regard, then, this report is ephemeral in character because the conditions in northern Alaska will surely change with great rapidity. Considering the"fragility and sensitivity of the ecosystems existing there, the changes can be both harsh and permanent. Therefore, whatever value lies in the recommendations made here., the results of their application will depend on the promptness of their consideration, amendment, and application. Whatever form the actions might take for minimizing the harm to the environment, the urgency of the matter can hardly be overestimated.

Alaska

Status of engineering geologic and environmental geologic mapping in the United States

1. Engineering geologic maps in the United States may be one map prepared as part of a larger study of environmental geology, individual areal geologic maps containing additional engineering geologic data, or engineering geologic maps of single construction sites. 2. No systematic methodology for engineering geologic or environmental geologic maps has been developed. 3. Environmental geology studies combine the efforts of workers in a number of geologic fields to produce many maps of basic data, as well as various interpretative maps, only one of which may be an engineering geologic or foundation conditions map. Maps of many scales may be prepared for a single study, depending upon the geologic conditions, the main problems of the area, and the principal needs. 4. New technology, including computers and various types of aerial photography, is constantly being developed, and its use is being encouraged to increase the speed and efficiency of map preparation. 5. The use of engineering geologic and environmental geologic maps in the United States is constantly growing; such maps will continue to be made in increasing numbers.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin

Recent geophysical and geological research in Antarctica related to the assessment of petroleum resources and potential environmental hazards to their development

During the 6-year negotiation of and adoption of the Convention on the Regulation of Antarctic Mineral Resources Activities on June 2, 1988, various countries have increased their attention to the possibility of exploitation of Antarctica's petroleum resources, which are covered by this treaty. However, there are no known petroleum resources in Antarctica, and scientific information is lacking to adequately assess any undiscovered resources or the possible environmental hazards to their development. Scientific research carried out in Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958) has provided a great deal of information on the geological framework of this ice-covered continent and its margin and has found general indications of the types of hazards that must be considered. Antarctica covers a vast area, and likely supergiant oil fields of the type to be exploited would be tiny (e.g., a few tens of kilometers across) in comparison. Any petroleum resources located in Antarctica will be found by applying the knowledge, techniques, and experience gained developing oil fields in other parts of the world and would, therefore, be other examples of general cases; in contrast, the Antarctic environment and its associated hazards must be considered unique.

Book chapter

Environmental Effects of Agricultural Practices - Summary of Workshop Held on June 14-16, 2005

A meeting between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners was held June 14-16, 2005, in Denver, CO, to discuss science issues and needs related to agricultural practices. The goals of the meeting were to learn about the (1) effects of agricultural practices on the environment and (2) tools for identifying and quantifying those effects. Achieving these goals required defining the environmental concerns, developing scientific actions to address assessment of environmental effects, and creating collaborations to identify future research requirements and technical gaps. Five areas of concern were discussed-emerging compounds; water availability; genetically modified organisms; effects of conservation practices on ecosystems; and data, methods, and tools for assessing effects of agricultural practices.

Scientific Investigations Report

Potential effects of environmental conditions on prairie dog flea development and implications for sylvatic plague epizootics

Fleas are common ectoparasites of vertebrates worldwide and vectors of many pathogens causing disease, such as sylvatic plague in prairie dog colonies. Development of fleas is regulated by environmental conditions, especially temperature and relative humidity. Development rates are typically slower at low temperatures and faster at high temperatures, which are bounded by lower and upper thresholds where development is reduced. Prairie dogs and their associated fleas (mostly Oropsylla spp) live in burrows that moderate outside environmental conditions, remaining cooler in summer and warmer in winter. We found burrow microclimates were characterized by stable daily temperatures and high relative humidity, with temperatures increasing from spring through summer. We previously showed temperature increases corresponded with increasing off-host flea abundance. To evaluate how changes in temperature could affect future prairie dog flea development and abundance, we used development rates of O. montana (a species related to prairie dog fleas), determined how prairie dog burrow microclimates are affected by ambient weather, and combined these results to develop a predictive model. Our model predicts burrow temperatures and flea development rates will increase during the twenty-first century, potentially leading to higher flea abundance and an increased probability of plague epizootics if Y. pestis is present.

Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South

NCWin — A Component Object Model (COM) for processing and visualizing NetCDF data

NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) is a data sharing protocol and library that is commonly used in large-scale atmospheric and environmental data archiving and modeling. The NetCDF tool described here, named NCWin and coded with Borland C + + Builder, was built as a standard executable as well as a COM (component object model) for the Microsoft Windows environment. COM is a powerful technology that enhances the reuse of applications (as components). Environmental model developers from different modeling environments, such as Python, JAVA, VISUAL FORTRAN, VISUAL BASIC, VISUAL C + +, and DELPHI, can reuse NCWin in their models to read, write and visualize NetCDF data. Some Windows applications, such as ArcGIS and Microsoft PowerPoint, can also call NCWin within the application. NCWin has three major components: 1) The data conversion part is designed to convert binary raw data to and from NetCDF data. It can process six data types (unsigned char, signed char, short, int, float, double) and three spatial data formats (BIP, BIL, BSQ); 2) The visualization part is designed for displaying grid map series (playing forward or backward) with simple map legend, and displaying temporal trend curves for data on individual map pixels; and 3) The modeling interface is designed for environmental model development by which a set of integrated NetCDF functions is provided for processing NetCDF data. To demonstrate that the NCWin can easily extend the functions of some current GIS software and the Office applications, examples of calling NCWin within ArcGIS and MS PowerPoint for showing NetCDF map animations are given.

Cartographic Journal

Wildlife underpass use and environmental impact assessment: A southern California case study

Environmental planners often rely on transportation structures (i.e., underpasses, bridges) to provide connectivity for animals across developed landscapes. Environmental assessments of predicted environmental impacts from proposed developments often rely on literature reviews or other indirect measures to establish the importance of wildlife crossings. Literature-based evaluations of wildlife crossings may not be accurate, and result in under-estimation of impacts or establishment of inappropriate mitigation measures. To investigate the adequacy of literature-based evaluations, we monitored wildlife use of a freeway underpass that had been identified as critically important to wildlife connectivity, and which was evaluated in an environmental review document. Photographs were obtained from a network of trail cameras over 3 years. Six mid- to large-sized native mammal species used the underpass and two other mammal species were photographed near the underpass but not using it. American badger ( Taxidea taxus ) was photographed at a higher rate in the underpass than in the surrounding area. Gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ) was rarely detected in the underpass relative to surrounding habitats, whereas the absence of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the underpass was unexpected, given relatively frequent detection in adjacent habitats. These results differed from the environmental assessment in that American badger was listed as "potentially" present while mule deer were expected to use the underpass. Results underscore importance of gathering data to document wildlife use of corridors, because some species do not or rarely take advantage of apparently suitable corridors, while others may be present when assumed to be absent.

California

When oil and water mix: Understanding the environmental impacts of shale development

Development of shale gas and tight oil, or unconventional oil and gas (UOG), has dramatically increased domestic energy production in the U.S. UOG resources are typically developed through the use of hydraulic fracturing, which creates high-permeability flow paths into large volumes of tight rocks to provide a means for hydrocarbons to move to a wellbore. This process uses significant volumes of water, sand, and chemicals, raising concerns about risks to the environment and to human health. Researchers in various disciplines have been working to make UOG development more efficient, and to better understand the risks to air quality, water quality, landscapes, human health, and ecosystems. Risks to air include releases of methane, carbon dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter. Water-resource risks include excessive withdrawals, stray gas in drinking-water aquifers, and surface spills of fluids or chemicals. Landscapes can be significantly altered by the infrastructure installed to support large drilling platforms and associated equipment. Exposure routes, fate and transport, and toxicology of chemicals used in the hydraulic fracturing process are poorly understood, as are the potential effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and human health. This is made all the more difficult by an adaptable and evolving industry that frequently changes methods and constantly introduces new chemicals. Geoscientists responding to questions about the risks of UOG should refer to recent, rigorous scientific research.

GSA Today

Taking the pulse of Colorado's Front Range: Developing regional indicators of environmental and quality of life condition

Indicators are routinely used to report the status and trends of human health, economy, educational achievement, and quality of life. Some environmental indicators, such as for water and air quality, are routinely reported and used to inform personal, management, or policy decisions. Other environmental indicators, particularly those that do not relate directly to human well-being, have been harder to define, interpret, or use. These indicators may be just as useful and important in describing the ability to provide ecosystem good and services, or less tangible quality of life measures, but they may be suspect because of the quality of data or even the source of the information.

Fact Sheet

Advances in solid-phase extraction disks for environmental chemistry

The development of solid-phase extraction (SPE) for environmental chemistry has progressed significantly over the last decade to include a number of new sorbents and new approaches to SPE. One SPE approach in particular, the SPE disk, has greatly reduced or eliminated the use of chlorinated solvents for the analysis of trace organic compounds. This article discusses the use and applicability of various SPE disks, including micro-sized disks, prior to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry for the analysis of trace organic compounds in water.

TrAC - Trends in Analytical Chemistry

Climatic factors related to land-use planning in the Puget Sound basin, Washington

Climate is a basic part of the natural environment and exerts a strong influence on many of man's activities. In the Puget Sound basin especially, effective land-use planning requires consideration of climatic influences, for the climate differs significantly in the various parts of the area. However, climatic information may not be given adequate consideration in the planning process if pertinent data are not readily available or if the importance of some climatic features is not apparent. The purpose of this study is to review available data related to the climate of the Puget Sound basin and to present selected climatic information along with an evaluation of its significance and general adequacy for planning purposes. This is part of continuing efforts aimed at imporving the accessibility and usefulness of environmental and other data needed for land-use planning, resource development, and environmental protection.

Washington

Initiation of migration and movement rates of Atlantic salmon smolts in fresh water

Timing of ocean entry is critical for marine survival of both hatchery and wild Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) smolts. Management practices and barriers to migration such as dams may constrain timing of smolt migrations resulting in suboptimal performance at saltwater entry. We modeled influences of stocking location, smolt development, and environmental conditions on ( i ) initiation of migration by hatchery-reared smolts and ( ii ) movement rate of hatchery- and wild-reared Atlantic salmon smolts in the Penobscot River, Maine, USA, from 2005 through 2014 using acoustic telemetry data. We also compared movement rates in free-flowing reaches with rates in reaches with hydropower dams and head ponds. We compared movement rates before and after (1) removal of two mainstem dams and (2) construction of new powerhouses. Initiation of movement by hatchery fish was influenced by smolt development, stocking location, and environmental conditions. Smolts with the greatest gill Na + , K + -ATPase (NKA) activity initiated migration 24 h sooner than fish with the lowest gill NKA activity. Fish with the greatest cumulative thermal experience initiated migration 5 days earlier than those with lowest cumulative thermal experience. Smolts released furthest from the ocean initiated migration earlier than those released downstream, but movement rate increased by fivefold closer to the ocean, indicating behavioral trade-offs between initiation and movement rate. Dams had a strong effect on movement rate. Movement rate increased from 2.8 to 5.4 km·h −1 in reaches where dams were removed, but decreased from 2.1 to 0.1 km·h −1 in reaches where new powerhouses were constructed. Movement rate varied throughout the migratory period and was inversely related to temperature. Fish moved slower at extreme high or low discharge. Responses in fish movement rates to dam removal indicate the potential scope of recovery for these activities.

Maine

Development of a quantitative PCR assay for detecting northwest salamander (ambystoma gracile) in environmental DNA samples

We developed a primer and probe based quantitative PCR assay for use with environmental DNA to detect Northwest salamander ( Ambystoma gracile ), a species endemic to the temperate Pacific coastal region of North America. The assay targets a region in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop gene. Tests of the assay were performed in silico (using the NCBI BLAST tool), in vitro (using DNA extracted from A. gracile and related species) and in situ (water samples collected from a lake with a known population of A. gracile ). This assay will be useful in efforts to monitor the distribution and occupancy of this species.

Conservation Genetics Resources

Growth and erosion of volcanic islands since 1963 analyzed by multi-sensor satellite data and historical records

Most volcanic activity is taking place in the oceans. Depending on water depth, eruption recurrence times and volumes, a new island can form. The power of erosional forces, the type of erupted material and the efficiency of secondary processes determine the island’s lifetime. Since the famous eruption of Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963, at least another 23 volcanic islands have appeared. Some islands remained intact for years or decades, whereas others disappeared within just weeks or months. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to determine growth and erosion rates of the volcanic edifices related to these 24 islands. We combined multi-sensor (optical, thermal, radar) satellite data time series with information from literature and the Global Volcanism Program database. We developed a comprehensive dataset, including 19 parameters, on the islands’ lifetime, shape, area, volume, eruption style and duration, environmental conditions, development of sedimentary deposits, and the geomorphic evolution of the island over time. Our dataset is available in a database format. This database allows us to test eight hypotheses about factors influencing the islands’ lifetime. Our results show that instead of one single critical factor, a combination of different factors influences the life history of volcanic islands. For instance, we show that larger islands do not necessarily live longer. The mechanical properties of the eruption products affect the island’s structural integrity. Irrespective of the material, a minimum initial area of around 50,000 m 2 seems to be a reasonable threshold to give the island a chance to exist longer.

Bulletin of Volcanology