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Derivation and characterization of environmental hazard concentrations for chemical prioritization: A case study in the Great Lakes tributaries

Ongoing anthropogenic activities and analytical advancements yield continuously expanding lists of environmental contaminants. This represents a challenge to environmental managers, who must prioritize chemicals for management actions (e.g., restriction, regulation, remediation) but are often hindered by resource limitations. To help facilitate prioritization efforts, this study presents several strategies for deriving environmental hazard concentrations using publicly accessible data and open-source computational tools. Using a Great Lakes tributaries aquatic monitoring dataset as a case study, environmental hazard concentrations were obtained or derived for 334 organic chemicals. These concentrations were based on (1) current water quality guidelines; (2) apical screening values; (3) apical and (4) nonapical effect concentrations from the ECOTOXicology Knowledgebase; (5) in vitro effect concentrations from the ToxCast database; (6) cytotoxic burst concentrations collated from the Comptox Dashboard; (7) “estimated screening values” derived from modeled or estimated data and available from various regulatory and nonregulatory agencies; (8) pharmaceutical potency estimates from the MaPPFAST database; and (9) quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR)–derived acute toxicity estimates. Environmental fate data included aquatic half-lives and bioconcentration factors collated from the Comptox Dashboard or estimated using QSARs. To identify patterns that could be used for characterization, availability of ecotoxicological concentrations and environmental fate data were evaluated. Furthermore, exceedances of hazard concentrations were evaluated and compared across diverse ecotoxicological data types. Altogether, by providing detailed methodology and practical examples generated with real monitoring data, this study demonstrated that these hazard concentration derivation strategies can be efficiently and effectively used with large, complex datasets and identified critical considerations for future prioritization efforts.

Great Lakes region

Remote sensing and modeling to fill the “gap” in missing natural capital

This chapter reviews recent advances in remote sensing and environmental modeling that address the first step in ecosystem accounting: biophysical quantification of ecosystem services. The chapter focuses on those ecosystem services in which the most rapid advances are likely, including crop pollination, sediment regulation, carbon sequestration and storage, and coastal flood regulation. The discussion highlights data sources and modeling approaches that can support wealth accounting, next steps for mapping and biophysical modeling of ecosystem services, and considerations for integrating biophysical modeling and monetary valuation. These approaches could make the inclusion of some ecosystem services increasingly feasible in future versions of wealth accounts.

Book chapter

Radiometric constraints on the timing, tempo, and effects of large igneous province emplacement

There is an apparent temporal correlation between large igneous province (LIP) emplacement and global environmental crises, including mass extinctions. Advances in the precision and accuracy of geochronology in the past decade have significantly improved estimates of the timing and duration of LIP emplacement, mass extinction events, and global climate perturbations, and in general have supported a temporal link between them. In this chapter, we review available geochronology of LIPs and of global extinction or climate events. We begin with an overview of the methodological advances permitting improved precision and accuracy in LIP geochronology. We then review the characteristics and geochronology of 12 LIP/event couplets from the past 700 Ma of Earth history, comparing the relative timing of magmatism and global change, and assessing the chronologic support for LIPs playing a causal role in Earth's climatic and biotic crises. We find that (1) improved geochronology in the last decade has shown that nearly all well-dated LIPs erupted in < 1 Ma, irrespective of tectonic setting; (2) for well-dated LIPs with correspondingly well-dated mass extinctions, the LIPs began several hundred ka prior to a relatively short duration extinction event; and (3) for LIPs with a convincing temporal connection to mass extinctions, there seems to be no single characteristic that makes a LIP deadly. Despite much progress, higher precision geochronology of both eruptive and intrusive LIP events and better chronologies from extinction and climate proxy records will be required to further understand how these catastrophic volcanic events have changed the course of our planet's surface evolution.

Book chapter

Mortality investigation

Wildlife mortality events usually occur unannounced and may find management agencies unaware. These events can become highly visible and politically charged affairs, depending upon the scale or species involved. The public, media, and (or) politicians may pressure managers, field investigators, and diagnosticians to quickly identify the cause or to comment on potential causes, the significance of the event, what is being done about it, and a resolution. It may be common during such events for speculation to rage, and for conflicting theories to be advanced to explain either the environmental conditions that led to the mortality or the actual cause of death. The overarching goal of a wildlife mortality investigation is to determine what happened and to identify causative factors that may have led to the event. Steps include obtaining the relevant history (defined later), conducting on-site field evaluations when necessary, collecting suitable samples, and completing appropriate diagnostic laboratory analyses. These procedures allow diagnosticians and biologists to determine the potential cause of mortality as swiftly as possible, or at the very least, to systematically eliminate potential causes of mortality so as to allow managers to focus on the most probable cause. Investigating mortalities in free-ranging wildlife poses a series of challenges requiring careful preparation, clear evaluation of objectives, and flexible implementation.

Techniques and Methods

Natural history, field ecology, conservation biology and wildlife management: Time to connect the dots

Natural history and field ecology are essential building blocks for successful conservation and management of herpetofauna. Thus, natural history and field ecology merit major infusions of funding and increased recognition of their importance in science and management. Others have stated matters well: (1) Academic training in natural history should receive high priority; (2) we need to integrate our work across disciplines (from molecules to communities), and use all of our knowledge toward common goals; (3) natural history is not dead but today is a flourishing enterprise; and (4) mutual respect and collaboration between disciplines best serve our own mental health as well as the future of natural history. We need to merge the best natural history, field ecological data, and biological questions with the latest advances in other fields of inquiry if we are to advance science and solve key environmental issues. It takes a scientific community and many concerned parties to save a species, let alone an ecosystem. We must connect these dots to see the big picture.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme

Applied Geochemistry Special Issue on Environmental geochemistry of modern mining

Environmental geochemistry is an integral part of the mine-life cycle, particularly for modern mining. The critical importance of environmental geochemistry begins with pre-mining baseline characterization and the assessment of environmental risks related to mining, continues through active mining especially in water and waste management practices, and culminates in mine closure. The enhanced significance of environmental geochemistry to modern mining has arisen from an increased knowledge of the impacts that historical and active mining can have on the environment, and from new regulations meant to guard against these impacts. New regulations are commonly motivated by advances in the scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of past mining. The impacts can be physical, chemical, and biological in nature. The physical challenges typically fall within the purview of engineers, whereas the chemical and biological challenges typically require a multidisciplinary array of expertise including geologists, geochemists, hydrologists, microbiologists, and biologists. The modern mine-permitting process throughout most of the world now requires that potential risks be assessed prior to the start of mining. The strategies for this risk assessment include a thorough characterization of pre-mining baseline conditions and the identification of risks specifically related to the manner in which the ore will be mined and processed, how water and waste products will be managed, and what the final configuration of the post-mining landscape will be. In the Fall 2010, the Society of Economic Geologists held a short course in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Denver, Colorado (USA) to examine the environmental geochemistry of modern mining. The intent was to focus on issues that are pertinent to current and future mines, as opposed to abandoned mines, which have been the focus of numerous previous short courses. The geochemical challenges of current and future mines share similarities with abandoned mines, but differences also exist. Mining and ore processing techniques have changed; the environmental footprint of waste materials has changed; environmental protection has become a more integral part of the mine planning process; and most historical mining was done with limited regard for the environment. The 17 papers in this special issue evolved from the Society of Economic Geologists’ short course. The relevant geochemical processes encompass the source, transport, and fate of contaminants related to the life cycle of a mine. Contaminants include metals and other inorganic species derived from geologic sources such as ore and solid mine waste, and substances brought to the site for ore processing, such as cyanide to leach gold. Factors, such as mine-waste mineralogy, hydrologic setting, mine-drainage chemistry, and microbial activity, that affect the hydrochemical risks from mining are reviewed by Nordstrom et al. In another paper, Nordstrom discusses baseline characterization at mine sites in a regulatory framework, and emphasizes the influence of mineral deposits in producing naturally elevated concentrations of many trace elements in surface water and groundwater. Surface water quality in mineralized watersheds is influenced by a number of processes that act on daily (diel) cycles and can produce dramatic variations in trace element concentrations as described by Gammons et al. Pre-mining baseline characterization studies should strive to capture the magnitude of these diel variations. Desbarats et al., using a case study of mine drainage from a gold mine, illustrate how elements that commonly occur as negatively charged species (anions) in solution, such as arsenic as arsenate, behave in an opposite fashion than most metals, which occur as positively charged species (cations). Significant improvement in the understanding of factors that influence the toxicity of metals to aquatic organisms in surface water has highlighted the importance of aqueous chemistry, particularly dissolved organic carbon, as described by Smith et al. Stream sediment contamination is another important pathway for affecting aquatic organisms, as reviewed by Besser et al. Understanding and predicting environmental consequences from mining begins with knowing the mineralogy and mineral reactivity of the ore, the wastes, and of secondary minerals formed later. Jamieson et al. review the importance of mineralogical studies in mine planning and remediation. A number of types of site-specific studies are needed to identify environmental risks related to individual mines. Lapakko reviews the general framework of mine waste characterization studies that are integral to the mine planning process. Hageman et al. present a comparative study of several static tests commonly used to characterize mine waste. The mining and ore processing practices employed at a specific mine site will vary on the basis of the commodities being targeted, the geology of the deposit, the geometry of the deposit, and the mining and ore processing methods used. Thus, these factors, in addition to the waste management practices used, can result in a variety of end-member mine waste features, each of which has its own set of challenges. Open pit mines and underground mines require waste rock to be removed to access ore. Waste rock presents unique problems because the rock is commonly mineralized at sub-economic grades and has not been processed to remove potentially problematic minerals, such as pyrite. Amos et al. examine the salient aspects of the geochemistry of waste rock. Mill tailings – the waste material after ore minerals have been removed – are a volumetrically important solid waste at many mine sites. Their fine grain size and the options for their management make their behavior in the environment distinct from that of waste rock. Lindsay et al. describe some of these differences through three case-study examples. Subaqueous disposal of tailings is another option described by Moncur et al. Cyanide leaching for gold extraction is a common method throughout the world. Johnson describes environmental aspects of cyanidation. Uranium mining presents unique environmental challenges, particularly since in-situ recovery has seen widespread use. Campbell et al. review the environmental geochemistry of uranium mining and current research on bioremediation. Ore concentrates from many types of metal mining undergo a pyrometallurgical technique known as smelting to extract the metal. Slag is the result of smelting, and it may be an environmental liability or a valuable byproduct, as described by Piatak et al. Finally, the open pits that result from surface mining commonly reach below the water table. At the end of mining, these pits may fill to form lakes that become part of the legacy of the mine. Castendyk et al., in two papers, review theoretical aspects of the environmental limnology of pit lakes. They also describe approaches that have been used to model pit lake water balance, wall-rock contributions to pit lake chemistry, pit lake water quality, and limnological processes, such as vertical mixing, through the use of three case studies.

Applied Geochemistry

A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets

Accurate and up-to-date global land cover data sets are necessary for various global change research studies including climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem assessment, and environmental modeling. In recent years, substantial advancement has been achieved in generating such data products. Yet, we are far from producing geospatially consistent high-quality data at an operational level. We compared the recently available Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) global land cover data to evaluate the similarities and differences in methodologies and results, and to identify areas of spatial agreement and disagreement. These two global land cover data sets were prepared using different data sources, classification systems, and methodologies, but using the same spatial resolution (i.e., 1 km) satellite data. Our analysis shows a general agreement at the class aggregate level except for savannas/shrublands, and wetlands. The disagreement, however, increases when comparing detailed land cover classes. Similarly, percent agreement between the two data sets was found to be highly variable among biomes. The identified areas of spatial agreement and disagreement will be useful for both data producers and users. Data producers may use the areas of spatial agreement for training area selection and pay special attention to areas of disagreement for further improvement in future land cover characterization and mapping. Users can conveniently use the findings in the areas of agreement, whereas users might need to verify the informaiton in the areas of disagreement with the help of secondary information. Learning from past experience and building on the existing infrastructure (e.g., regional networks), further research is necessary to (1) reduce ambiguity in land cover definitions, (2) increase availability of improved spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric resolution satellite data, and (3) develop advanced classification algorithms.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) watershed hydrology assessment for the Neches River basin. Appendix D: RiverWare analyses

RiverWare is a river system modeling tool developed by CADSWES (Center of Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems) that allows the user to simulate complex reservoir operations and perform period-of-record analyses for different scenarios. For the InFRM hydrology studies, RiverWare is used to generate a homogeneous regulated POR by simulating the basin as if the reservoirs and their current rule sets had been present in the basin for the entire time period. Statistical analyses can then be performed on the extended records at the gages. This report summarizes the RiverWare portion of the hydrologic analysis being completed for the InFRM Hydrology study of the Neches River Basin. The RiverWare model described in this chapter presents development of the Neches River Basin hydrology, which mimics current operational conditions. The use of the RiverWare program allows for data extension to periods prior to dam construction. The utilization of longer streamgage record improves discharge frequency results and increases the confidence of the analysis being performed. The modeling evaluation criteria are: (1) evaluate output based on validating policies and functions, and (2) prioritize operation based on surcharge and flood control. A detailed explanation of the Neches River Basin POR hydrology will be in a later section. Calibration results will also be shown that illustrate model performance since the Salt Water Barrier (SWB) construction was completed in 2005. The time window simulation run is for water year (WY) 2005 – WY 2018. This time window also captures the time when Hurricane Harvey occurred (late August of 2017). Each simulated water year was inspected individually to better validate the results. After calibration, a general run for January 01, 1929 through WY 2018 was made. Historical pool elevations along with observed inflows and outflows were compared against the model simulated results. More emphasis was put on B.A. Steinhagen’s operations because the dam captures two major rivers (i.e. the Angelina and the Neches Rivers). Results were inspected closely for B.A. Steinhagen’s pool and releases, the simulated discharges at the Neches at Evadale gage, and the simulated discharges at the SWB at Beaumont, Texas.

Texas

Watershed hydrology assessment for the Lower Colorado River Basin. Appendix D: RiverWare analyses

RiverWare is a river system modeling tool developed by CADSWES (Center of Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems) that allows the user to simulate complex reservoir operations and perform period-of-record analyses for different scenarios. For the InFRM hydrology studies, RiverWare is used to generate a homogeneous regulated POR by simulating the basin as if the reservoirs and their current rule sets had been present in the basin for the entire time period. Statistical analyses can then be performed on the extended records at the gages. This report summarizes the RiverWare portion of the hydrologic analysis being completed for the InFRM Hydrology study of the Colorado River Basin. The RiverWare model described in this chapter presents development of the Colorado River Basin hydrology, which mimics current operational conditions. The use of the RiverWare program allows for data extension to periods prior to dam construction. The utilization of longer gage record improves discharge frequency results and increases the confidence of the analysis being performed. The modeling evaluation criteria are: (1) evaluate output based on validating policies and functions, and (2) prioritize operation based on surcharge and flood control. A detailed explanation of the Colorado River Basin POR hydrology will be in a later section. Calibration results will also be shown that illustrate the overall model performance for the POR. The time window simulation run is for January 01, 1930 – September 30, 2019. This time window captures all big events occurred over the Colorado River basin. Each simulated water year was inspected individually to better validate the results. Historical pool elevations along with observed inflows and outflows were compared against the model simulated results.

Texas

Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat

Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult to obtain. Recent advances in remote sensing make it possible to incorporate more frequent measurements of changing landscapes; however, there is often a cost in terms of model building and processing and the added value of such efforts is unknown. Our study tests whether incorporating real-time environmental data increases the predictive ability of distribution models, relative to using long-term average data. We developed and compared distribution models for shorebirds in California's Central Valley based on high temporal resolution (every 16-days), and 17-year long-term average, surface water data. Using abundance-weighted boosted regression trees, we modeled monthly shorebird occurrence as a function of surface water availability, crop type, wetland type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. While modeling with both real-time and long-term average data provided good fit to withheld validation data (0.79 < AUC < 0.89 across taxa), there were small differences in model performance. The best models incorporated long-term average conditions and spatial pattern information for real-time flooding (e.g. perimeter-area ratio of real-time water bodies). There was not a substantial difference in the performance of real-time and long-term average data models within time periods when real-time surface water differed substantially from the long-term average (specifically during drought years 2013-2016) and in intermittently flooded months or locations. Spatial predictions resulting from the models differed most in the southern region of the study area where there is lower water availability, fewer birds, and lower sampling density. Prediction uncertainty in the southern region of the study area highlights the need for increased sampling in this area. Because both sets of data performed similarly, the choice of which data to use may depend on the management context. Real-time data may ultimately be best for guiding dynamic, adaptive conservation actions whereas models based on long-term averages may be more helpful for guiding permanent wetland protection and restoration.

Ecological Applications

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Fact Sheet

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V ) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Open-File Report

Environmental models of mineral deposits- A state of the art

Although mineral deposits have been classified by their geologic and mineralogical characteristics for decades, the recognition that mineral deposits also could be classified by their environmental characteristics is relatively new. In the past 5 years, numerous advancements have been made in this subject area, building on the earlier work of economic geologists who classified geologic characteristics. Several different approaches to understanding the environmental behavior of mineral deposits and associated altered areas have been taken, ranging from wholesale assessments of large areas (millions of km 2 ) to detailed assessments of individual watersheds or individual mines. While these first attempts have succeeded in describing some of the environmental characteristics of ore deposits in a number of ways, many important “environmental variables” are not included in present descriptive models. For example, the models should be expanded in scope to include a more thorough treatment of climatic and ecoregional effects- embodying such physical environmental characteristics as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and ground water-surface water interactions. More complete model descriptions will have applications to the determination of baselines and natural backgrounds in mined and unmined areas, as well as possible anticipated effects of new mining in a given area, and mitigation and remediation strategies. The challenge to geologists and geochemists is to incorporate a widely disparate set of physical and chemical characteristics of mineralized and altered zones at scales ranging from microscopic (sub-millimeter) to macroscopic (10’s to 100’s of kilometers). This paper presents an overview of the development of mineral deposit environmental models, the current state of the art, an evaluation of needed improvements, and expected advancements in this field.

Geologica Hungarica. Series geologica

The role of behavioral ecotoxicology in environmental protection

For decades, we have known that chemicals affect human and wildlife behavior. Moreover, due to recent technological and computational advances, scientists are now increasingly aware that a wide variety of contaminants and other environmental stressors adversely affect organismal behavior and subsequent ecological outcomes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. There is also a groundswell of concern that regulatory ecotoxicology does not adequately consider behavior, primarily due to a lack of standardized toxicity methods. This has, in turn, led to the exclusion of many behavioral ecotoxicology studies from chemical risk assessments. To improve understanding of the challenges and opportunities for behavioral ecotoxicology within regulatory toxicology/risk assessment, a unique workshop with international representatives from the fields of behavioral ecology, ecotoxicology, regulatory (eco)toxicology, neurotoxicology, test standardization, and risk assessment resulted in the formation of consensus perspectives and recommendations, which promise to serve as a roadmap to advance interfaces among the basic and translational sciences, and regulatory practices.

Environmental Science & Technology

Gaining decision-maker confidence through community consensus: Developing environmental DNA standards for data display on the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species database

To advance national efforts for the detection and biosurveillance of aquatic invasive species (AIS), we employed a community consensus process to enable the incorporation of environmental DNA (eDNA) detection data into the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database (https://nas.er.usgs.gov/eDNA/). Our goal was to identify minimum standards and best practices for the verification of eDNA data by working closely with AIS eDNA community practitioners and natural resource managers across government, private and academic sectors. To better inform management decisions, verified AIS eDNA data will be displayed on a separate mapping layer alongside visual sighting data with the inclusion of additional information on the eDNA methods employed to collect and produce the data. To allow for eDNA data display, we produced consensus derived online documents including a submission application and data submission template and are developing a guidance document for detailing the eDNA data submission process. We also developed a communication plan including a mechanism for reporting detections to appropriate managers for consideration prior to display. The products of these efforts are an application and data submission process that will be used in the new environmental DNA data layer on the Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database. Herein, we detail how we engaged the eDNA community for consensus of our standards, share lessons learned from the process, and describe the benefits of such an approach at instilling confidence among the research and decision-maker community.

Management of Biological Invasions

Sustainability of utility-scale solar energy – critical ecological concepts

Renewable energy development is an arena where ecological, political, and socioeconomic values collide. Advances in renewable energy will incur steep environmental costs to landscapes in which facilities are constructed and operated. Scientists – including those from academia, industry, and government agencies – have only recently begun to quantify trade-offs in this arena, often using ground-mounted, utility-scale solar energy facilities (USSE, ≥1 megawatt) as a model. Here, we discuss five critical ecological concepts applicable to the development of more sustainable USSE with benefits over fossil-fuel-generated energy: (1) more sustainable USSE development requires careful evaluation of trade-offs between land, energy, and ecology; (2) species responses to habitat modification by USSE vary; (3) cumulative and large-scale ecological impacts are complex and challenging to mitigate; (4) USSE development affects different types of ecosystems and requires customized design and management strategies; and (5) long-term ecological consequences associated with USSE sites must be carefully considered. These critical concepts provide a framework for reducing adverse environmental impacts, informing policy to establish and address conservation priorities, and improving energy production sustainability.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Simulating 2,368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake-climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2,368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979-2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74&deg;C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some - but not all - ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Ecological Modelling