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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2004

Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events

Catastrophic events share characteristic nonlinear behaviors that are often generated by cross-scale interactions and feedbacks among system elements. These events result in surprises that cannot easily be predicted based on information obtained at a single scale. Progress on catastrophic events has focused on one of the following two areas: nonlinear dynamics through time without an explicit consideration of spatial connectivity [Holling, C. S. (1992) Ecol. Monogr. 62, 447–502] or spatial connectivity and the spread of contagious processes without a consideration of cross-scale interactions and feedbacks [Zeng, N., Neeling, J. D., Lau, L. M. & Tucker, C. J. (1999) Science 286, 1537–1540]. These approaches rarely have ventured beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries. We provide an interdisciplinary, conceptual, and general mathematical framework for understanding and forecasting nonlinear dynamics through time and across space. We illustrate the generality and usefulness of our approach by using new data and recasting published data from ecology (wildfires and desertification), epidemiology (infectious diseases), and engineering (structural failures). We show that decisions that minimize the likelihood of catastrophic events must be based on cross-scale interactions, and such decisions will often be counterintuitive. Given the continuing challenges associated with global change, approaches that cross disciplinary boundaries to include interactions and feedbacks at multiple scales are needed to increase our ability to predict catastrophic events and develop strategies for minimizing their occurrence and impacts. Our framework is an important step in developing predictive tools and designing experiments to examine cross-scale interactions.

PNAS↗
USGS2016

Acid mine drainage

Acid mine drainage (AMD) consists of metal-laden solutions produced by the oxidative dissolution of iron sulfide minerals exposed to air, moisture, and acidophilic microbes during the mining of coal and metal deposits. The pH of AMD is usually in the range of 2–6, but mine-impacted waters at circumneutral pH (5–8) are also common. Mine drainage usually contains elevated concentrations of sulfate, iron, aluminum, and other potentially toxic metals leached from rock that hydrolyze and coprecipitate to form rust-colored encrustations or sediments. When AMD is discharged into surface waters or groundwaters, degradation of water quality, injury to aquatic life, and corrosion or encrustation of engineered structures can occur for substantial distances. Prevention and remediation strategies should consider the biogeochemical complexity of the system, the longevity of AMD pollution, the predictive power of geochemical modeling, and the full range of available field technologies for problem mitigation.

Book chapter↗
USGS1969

Land subsidence due to the application of water

Loose, dry, low-density deposits that compact when they are wetted mantle extensive areas in North America, Europe, and Asia. This process, here referred to as hydrocompaction, has produced widespread subsidence of the land surface. Hydrocompaction may occur under natural overburden load or may occur only with the addition of a surcharge load. Deposits that subside because of hydrocompaction are generally one of two types: (1) loose, moisture-deficient alluvial deposits; and (2) moisture-deficient loess and related eolian deposits. Such deposits occur in regions where seasonal rainfall seldom, if ever, is sufficient to penetrate below the root zone; thus, they have remained moisture deficient throughout their postdepositional history and are readily susceptible to hydrocompaction when they are artificially wetted. Subsidence due to hydrocompaction is of serious concern in the design and maintenance of aqueducts, buildings, pipe lines, highways, and other major engineering structures. Damage usually can be minimized by precompacting the deposits before construction begins.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Ne↗
USGS2000

Comparison of phase velocities from array measurements of Rayleigh waves associated with microtremor and results calculated from borehole shear-wave velocity profiles

Shear-wave velocities (V S ) are widely used for earthquake ground-motion site characterization. V S data are now largely obtained using borehole methods. Drilling holes, however, is expensive. Nonintrusive surface methods are inexpensive for obtaining V S information, but not many comparisons with direct borehole measurements have been published. Because different assumptions are used in data interpretation of each surface method and public safety is involved in site characterization for engineering structures, it is important to validate the surface methods by additional comparisons with borehole measurements. We compare results obtained from a particular surface method (array measurement of surface waves associated with microtremor) with results obtained from borehole methods. Using a 10-element nested-triangular array of 100-m aperture, we measured surface-wave phase velocities at two California sites, Garner Valley near Hemet and Hollister Municipal Airport. The Garner Valley site is located at an ancient lake bed where water-saturated sediment overlies decomposed granite on top of granite bedrock. Our array was deployed at a location where seismic velocities had been determined to a depth of 500 m by borehole methods. At Hollister, where the near-surface sediment consists of clay, sand, and gravel, we determined phase velocities using an array located close to a 60-m deep borehole where downhole velocity logs already exist. Because we want to assess the measurements uncomplicated by uncertainties introduced by the inversion process, we compare our phase-velocity results with the borehole V S depth profile by calculating fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave phase velocities from an earth model constructed from the borehole data. For wavelengths less than ~2 times of the array aperture at Garner Valley, phase-velocity results from array measurements agree with the calculated Rayleigh-wave velocities to better than 11%. Measurement errors become larger for wavelengths 2 times greater than the array aperture. At Hollister, the measured phase velocity at 3.9 Hz (near the upper edge of the microtremor frequency band) is within 20% of the calculated Rayleigh-wave velocity. Because shear-wave velocity is the predominant factor controlling Rayleigh-wave phase velocities, the comparisons suggest that this nonintrusive method can provide V S information adequate for ground-motion estimation.

California↗
USGS2025

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California↗
USGS2013

Analysis and simulation of regional subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction and compaction of susceptible aquifer systems in the USA

Regional aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction in susceptible aquifer systems in the USA is a challenge for managing groundwater resources and mitigating associated hazards. Developments in the assessment of regional subsidence provide more information to constrain analyses and simulation of aquifer-system compaction. Current popular approaches to simulating vertical aquifer-system deformation (compaction), such as those embodied in the aquitard drainage model and the MODFLOW subsidence packages, have proven useful from the perspective of regional groundwater resources assessment. However, these approaches inadequately address related local-scale hazards-ground ruptures and damages to engineered structures on the land surface arising from tensional stresses and strains accompanying groundwater abstraction. This paper presents a brief overview of the general approaches taken by the U.S. Geological Survey toward understanding aquifer-system compaction and subsidence with regard to a) identifying the affected aquifer systems; b) making regional assessments; c) analyzing the governing processes; and d) simulating historical and future groundwater flow and subsidence conditions. Limitations and shortcomings of these approaches, as well as future challenges also are discussed.

Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana↗
USGS2020

Analysis of nearshore placement of sediments at Ogden Dunes, Indiana

The harbor structures/shoreline armoring on the southern Lake Michigan shoreline interrupt sand migration. Ogden Dunes, Indiana, and the nearby Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore observed shoreline erosion due to engineered structures associated with Burns Waterway Harbor, east of Ogden Dunes, impeding natural east to west sediment migration. To remedy this, USACE placed over 450,000 cubic meters, or m³, of dredged material post 2006 in the nearshore of Ogden Dunes. However, the effectiveness of nearshore placements for shoreline protection and littoral nourishment is not fully established. To improve nearshore placement effectiveness, USACE monitored the June/July 2016 placement and subsequent movement of 107,000 m³ of dredged material in the nearshore region at Ogden Dunes. This involved an extensive monitoring scheme of three bathymetry surveys, and two acoustic Doppler current profiler deployments, a Coastal Modeling System numerical model of the changes following placement, and a prediction of sediment transport direction using the Sediment Mobility Tool. The SMT predicted sediment migration direction was compared to observations. Observations indicated that between 10/11/2016 and 11/15/2016 the centroid of the sediment above the pre-placement survey moved 17 m onshore. These observations agreed with SMT predictions onshore migration under storm and typical wave conditions. CMS accurately reproduced the hydrodynamic features.

Indiana↗
USGS2007

Analysis of the Interstate 10 Twin Bridge’s collapse during Hurricane Katrina: Chapter 3D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

The Interstate 10 Twin Span Bridge over Lake Pontchartrain north of New Orleans, La., was rendered completely unusable by Hurricane Katrina. The cause of the collapse of the bridges generated great interest among hydrologists and structural engineers as well as among the general public. What made this case study even more important was the fact that two nearby bridges sustained the effects of the same storm surge and suffered only light damage. Lessons learned from this investigation are invaluable to maintaining the safety of many of the Nation's coastal and river-crossing bridges.

Louisiana↗
USGS1974

Seismic hazards and land-use planning

Basic earth-science data are necessary for a realistic assessment of seismic hazards and as a basis for limiting corrective land-use controls only to those areas of greatest hazard. For example, the location, character, and amount of likely displacement and activity of surface faulting can be predicted if detailed geologic maps and seismic data are available and are augmented by field studies at critical localities. Because few structures can withstand displacement of their foundations, they should be located off active fault traces, the distance varying with the character of faulting, the certainty with which fault traces are known, and the importance of the structure. Recreational activities and other nonoccupancy land uses should be considered for fault zone areas where land is under pressure for development; elsewhere, such areas should remain as open space. Two methods of predicting ground shaking effects have applications to land-use decisions: (1) Relative earthquake effects can be related to firmness of the ground and can be used in a gross way to allocate population density in the absence of more sophisticated analyses; and (2) intensity maps, based on, (a) damage from former earthquakes, or (b) a qualitative analyses of geologic units added to a design earthquake, can be helpful both for general and specific plans. Theoretical models are used with caution to predict ground motion for critical structures to be located at specific sites with unique foundation conditions. Fully adequate methods of assessing possible shaking remain to be developed. Where land-use decisions do not reflect likely ground shaking effects, stringent building codes are needed, particularly for important structures. Ground failure (landsliding, ground cracking and lurching, differential settlement, sand boils, and subsidence) commonly results from liquefaction, loss of soil strength, or compaction. Areas suspected of being most likely to fail should not be developed unless detailed site studies can demonstrate the hazard does not exist or can be overcome. Various methods can be used to reduce the high, long-term public costs that follow development of unstable ground. However, areas subject to tectonic deformation generally cannot be predicted nor can effects of such deformation be minimized. Large water waves, such as produced by tsunamis, seiches, and dam failure or overtopping, can be anticipated in many places. Their effects can be lessened by land-use regulations similar to flood-plain zoning, restrictions on location of critical structures, and appropriate warning systems. Many local, state, and federal government agencies, universities, and private consultants may be able to assist planners by advising them of pertinent data and where those data can be obtained. Interpretation of the data for an evaluation of seismic risk commonly requires a team of planners, geologists, and soil and structural engineers.

Circular↗
USGS2009

Acoustic Doppler current profiler applications used in rivers and estuaries by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has collected streamflow information for the Nation's streams since 1889. Streamflow information is used to predict floods, manage and allocate water resources, design engineering structures, compute water-quality loads, and operate water-control structures. The current (2007) size of the USGS streamgaging network is over 7,400 streamgages nationwide. The USGS has progressively improved the streamgaging program by incorporating new technologies and techniques that streamline data collection while increasing the quality of the streamflow data that are collected. The single greatest change in streamflow measurement technology during the last 100 years has been the development and application of high frequency acoustic instruments for measuring streamflow. One such instrument, the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), is rapidly replacing traditional mechanical current meters for streamflow measurement (Muste and others, 2007). For more information on how an ADCP works see Simpson (2001) or visit http://hydroacoustics.usgs.gov/. The USGS has used ADCPs attached to manned or tethered boats since the mid-1990s to measure streamflow in a wide variety of conditions (fig. 1). Recent analyses have shown that ADCP streamflow measurements can be made with similar or greater accuracy, efficiency, and resolution than measurements made using conventional current-meter methods (Oberg and Mueller, 2007). ADCPs also have the ability to measure streamflow in streams where traditional current-meter measurements previously were very difficult or costly to obtain, such as streams affected by backwater or tides. In addition to streamflow measurements, the USGS also uses ADCPs for other hydrologic measurements and applications, such as computing continuous records of streamflow for tidally or backwater affected streams, measuring velocity fields with high spatial and temporal resolution, and estimating suspended-sediment concentrations. An overview of these applications is provided in the fact sheet.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2026

Water in, no water out—How a rain garden reduced stormwater at City Hall in Gary, Indiana

Introduction Urban stormwater runoff can be an issue in many communities because it may cause flooding, overwhelm sewage treatment plants, and negatively affect water quality in local streams, lakes, and other waterbodies. Stormwater runoff can be controlled by using "green infrastructure," which consists of engineered structures that imitate nature to collect stormwater runoff, reduce the amount of runoff, and improve water quality. In 2014, the city of Gary, Indiana implemented green infrastructure to reduce the negative effects of urban stormwater on Lake Michigan and its tributaries. From November 2016 to June 2017, the mostly impermeable parking lot in front of Gary City Hall was removed and rebuilt with a rain garden. The U.S. Geological Survey studied how the rain garden reduced stormwater runoff and published results in Scientific Investigations Report 2022–5101.

Indiana↗
USGS1974

Map showing the thickness of loosely packed sediments and the depth to bedrock in the Sugar House quadrangle, Salt Lake County, Utah

This map provides information on the location and distribution of three general types of geologic materials in part of Salt Lake County, including the southeastern part of Salt Lake City, Utah. These materials have different physical properties that are pertinent to comprehensive planning and zoning, land-use studies, and engineering usage. The map should be of use in preliminary studies to determine the depth to different general types of foundation material and to determine the potential for settlement of the ground surface during major earthquakes, which could result in damage to waterlines, gaslines, large buildings, and other major engineering structures. The lines on the map are generalized. Lines showing the thickness of loosely packed sediments are based on drillers’ logs of 27 water wells in and near the 35-square-mile part of the quadrangle west of the mountains – less than one data point for each square mile. Lines showing the depth to bedrock are based on indirect geophysical data, and the data points are more widely scattered. The map may be useful as a general guide in planning, but investigations by qualified specialists should be made for detailed evaluations of specific areas. references to other reports of possible interest to the reader are included at the end of this text.

Utah↗
USGS1994

Map showing depth to bedrock of the Tacoma and part of the Centralia 30' x 60' quadrangles, Washington

The heavily populated Puget Sound region in the State of Washington has experienced moderate to large earthquakes in the recent past (Nuttli, 1952; Mullineaux and others, 1967). Maps showing thickness of unconsolidated sedimentary deposits are useful aids in delineating areas where damage to engineered structures can result from increased shaking resulting from these earthquakes. Basins containing thick deposits of unconsolidated materials can amplify earthquakes waves and cause far more damage to structures than the same waves passing through bedrock (Singh and others, 1988; Algermissen and others, 1985). Configurations of deep sedimentary basins can also cause reflection and magnification of earthquake waves in ways still not fully understood and presently under investigation (Frankel and Vidale, 1992).

Washington↗
USGS2010

Coastal circulation and sediment dynamics in Maunalua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii: Measurements of waves, currents, temperature, salinity, and turbidity: November 2008-February 2009

High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity and turbidity were made in Maunalua Bay, southern Oahu, Hawaii, during the 2008–2009 winter to better understand coastal circulation, water-column properties, and sediment dynamics during a range of conditions (trade winds, kona storms, relaxation of trade winds, and south swells). A series of bottom-mounted instrument packages were deployed in water depths of 20 m or less to collect long-term, high-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity, and turbidity. These data were supplemented with a series of profiles through the water column to characterize the vertical and spatial variability in water-column properties within the bay. These measurements support the ongoing process studies being done as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Pacific Coral Reef Project; the ultimate goal of these studies is to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, pollutants, and other particles in coral reef settings. Project Objectives The objective of this study was to understand the temporal variations in currents, waves, tides, temperature, salinity and turbidity within a coral-lined embayment that receives periodic discharges of freshwater and sediment from multiple terrestrial sources in the Maunalua Bay. Instrument packages were deployed for a three-month period during the 2008–2009 winter and a series of vertical profiles were collected in November 2008, and again in February 2009, to characterize water-column properties within the bay. Measurements of flow and water-column properties in Maunalua Bay provided insight into the potential fate of terrestrial sediment, nutrient, or contaminant delivered to the marine environment and coral larval transport within the embayment. Such data are useful for providing baseline information for future watershed decisions and for establishing guidelines for the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force’s (USCRTF) Hawaiian Local Action Strategy to address Land-Based Pollution (LAS-LBP) threats to coral reefs adjacent to the urbanized watersheds of Manualua Bay. Study Area Maunalua Bay is on the south side of Oahu, Hawaii, and is approximately 10 km long and 3 km wide. The bay is flanked by two large, dormant craters: Koko Head to the east and Diamond Head to the west. Rainfall in the watersheds that drain into Maunalua Bay ranges from more than 200 cm/year at the top of the Ko‘olau Range that borders the northwestern part of the bay to less than 70 cm/year to the east at Koko Head. Seven major channels flow into the bay, and all but one have been altered by engineering structures.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response

In July 2010, in an effort to reduce future catastrophic natural disaster losses for California, the American Red Cross coordinated and sent a delegation of 20 multidisciplinary experts on earthquake response and recovery to Chile. The primary goal was to understand how the Chilean society and relevant organizations responded to the magnitude 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck the region on February 27, 2010, as well as how an application of these lessons could better prepare California communities, response partners and state emergency partners for a comparable situation. Similarities in building codes, socioeconomic conditions, and broad extent of the strong shaking make the Chilean earthquake a very close analog to the impact of future great earthquakes on California. To withstand and recover from natural and human-caused disasters, it is essential for citizens and communities to work together to anticipate threats, limit effects, and rapidly restore functionality after a crisis. The delegation was hosted by the Chilean Red Cross and received extensive briefings from both national and local Red Cross officials. During nine days in Chile, the delegation also met with officials at the national, regional, and local government levels. Technical briefings were received from the President’s Emergency Committee, emergency managers from ONEMI (comparable to FEMA), structural engineers, a seismologist, hospital administrators, firefighters, and the United Nations team in Chile. Cities visited include Santiago, Talca, Constitución, Concepción, Talcahuano, Tumbes, and Cauquenes. The American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team consisted of subject matter experts, who carried out special investigations in five Teams on the (1) science and engineering findings, (2) medical services, (3) emergency services, (4) volunteer management, and (5) executive and management issues (see appendix A for a full list of participants and their titles and teams). While developing this delegation, it was clear that a multidisciplinary approach was required to properly analyze the emergency response, technical, and social components of this disaster. A diverse and knowledgeable delegation was necessary to analyze the Chilean response in a way that would be beneficial to preparedness in California, as well as improve mitigation efforts around the United States. By most standards, the Maule earthquake was a catastrophe for Chile. The economic losses totaled $30 billion USD or 17% of the GDP of the country. Twelve million people, or ¾ of the population of the country, were in areas that felt strong shaking. Yet only 521 fatalities have been confirmed, with 56 people still missing and presumed dead in the tsunami. The Science and Technology Team evaluated the impacts of the earthquake on built environment with implications for the United States. The fires following the earthquake were minimal in part because of the shutdown of the national electrical grid early in the shaking. Only five engineer-designed buildings were destroyed during the earthquake; however, over 350,000 housing units were destroyed. Chile has a law that holds building owners liable for the first 10 years of a building’s existence for any losses resulting from inadequate application of the building code during construction. This law was cited by many our team met with as a prime reason for the strong performance of the built environment. Overall, this earthquake demonstrated that strict building codes and standards could greatly reduce losses in even the largest earthquakes. In the immediate response to the earthquake and tsunami, first responders, emergency personnel, and search and rescue teams handled many challenges. Loss of communications was significant; many lives were lost and effective coordination to support life-sustaining efforts was gravely impacted due to a lack of inter- and intra-agency coordination. The Health and Medical Services Team sought to understand the medical disaster response strategies and operations of Chilean agencies, including perceived or actual failures in disaster preparation that impacted the medical disaster response; post-disaster health and medical interventions to save lives and limit suffering; and the lessons learned by public health and medical personnel as a result of their experiences. Despite devastating damage to the health care and civic infrastructure, the health care response to the Chilean earthquake appeared highly successful due to several factors. Like other first responders, the medical community had the ability and resourcefulness to respond without centralized control in the early response phase. The health care community maintained patient care under austere conditions, despite many obstacles that could have prevented such care. National and international resources were rapidly mobilized to support the medical response. The Emergency Services Team sought to collect information on all phases of emergency management (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) and determine what worked well and what could be improved upon. The Chileans reported being surprised that they were not as ready for this event as they thought they were. The use of mass care sheltering was limited, given the scope of the disaster, because of the resiliency of the population. The impacts of the earthquake and the tsunami were quite different, as were the needs of urban and rural dwellers, necessitating different response activities. The Volunteer Services Team examined the challenges faced in mobilizing a large number of volunteers to assist in the aftermath of a disaster of this scale. One of the greatest challenges expressed was difficulty in communication; the need for redundancy in communication mechanisms was cited. The flexibility and ability to work autonomously by the frontline volunteers was a significant factor in effective response. It was also important for volunteer leadership to know the emergency plans. These plans need to be flexible, include alternative options, and be completed in conjunction with local officials and other volunteers. The Executive/Red Cross Management Team took a broad look at the impacts of the earthquake and the implications for California. Some of the most important preparation for the disaster came from relationships formed before the event. The communities with strong connections between different government services generally fared well. The initial response and resilience of individuals and communities was another important component. Communication system failures limited the ability of a central government to assist impacted communities, or to issue tsunami warnings. It also delayed the response since the government did not know (in some case for several days) the impact and needs of local governments. In general, plans for congregate care shelters existed but were little used as most people chose to stay at damaged homes or with relatives. Looting was a surprise to response officials as well as social scientists, but both public and private sector organizations, including NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations), must consider security for damaged businesses as a priority in California’s multihazard planning. Class and ethnic divisions that become heightened during some cases of actual or perceived injustice may also emerge in natural disasters in California. Several factors contributed overall to the low casualty rate and rapid recovery. A major factor is the strong building code in Chile and its comprehensive enforcement. In particular, Chile has a law that holds building owners accountable for losses in a building they build for 10 years. A second factor was the limited number of fires after the earthquake. In the last few California earthquakes, 60% of the fires were started by electrical problems, so the rarity of fires may have been affected by the shut down of the electricity grid early in the earthquake. Third, in many areas, the local emergency response was very effective. The most effective regions had close coordination between emergency management, fire, and police and were empowered to respond without communication with the capital. The fourth factor was the overall high level of knowledge about earthquakes and tsunamis by much of the population that helped them respond more appropriately after the event.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human effects, in several locations beaches that had been rapidly prograding are now either prograding at a slower rate or eroding. The average rate of short-term shoreline change in the PNW was also progradational at a rate of 0.9 m/yr with an uncertainty of 0.03 m/yr. This rate is based on 9,087 individual transects, of which 44 percent was determined to be eroding. Similar to the results of the long-term shoreline change analysis, the shorelines in Washington were typically more progradational than those in Oregon in the short term. However, many stretches of coast in Oregon are either less accretional, changed from accretional to erosional, or more erosional when comparing the long- and short-term rate calculations. In the long and short term, there are significantly different historical shoreline change trends for beaches deriving their modern sediments from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon, and beaches elsewhere in the PNW. The majority of shorelines in Oregon and in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula are not influenced by the human effects to the Columbia River littoral cell and typically have not experienced the human-induced century-scale trends apparent in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. An increase in erosion hazards in much of Oregon may be related to the effects of sea-level rise and increasing storm wave heights. Of importance, particularly in the short term, is the alongshore variability in land uplift rates due to tectonics, which results in an alongshore varying rate of relative sea level rise that appears to at least partially control the regional variability in short-term shoreline change rates. Other climate related processes, such as the occurrence of major El Niño events, also significantly affect the shoreline changes in the region. Major El Niño events elevate monthly mean sea levels by tens of centimeters throughout the winter and produce a shift in the storm tracks, resulting in alongshore redistributions in sand volumes on the beaches, leading to hotspot beach erosion and property losses north of headlands and tidal inlets to bays and estuaries. There are limited modern-day sources of sand to Oregon’s beaches, with much of the sand being relict in having arrived thousands of years ago at a time of lowered sea levels when headlands did not prevent the alongshore movement of the beach sediments, the result being that many beaches today are deficient in sand volumes and therefore do not provide sufficient buffer protection to backshore properties during winter storms.

Oregon;Washington↗