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Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Using angler-submitted records to interpret the spatial seasonality of a large predator (Black bass, Micropterus spp.)

In addition to having cultural, social, and economic significance, large predatory fish affect aquatic communities from the top down and serve as markers of ecosystem health. A focus on large predators is critical for managing ecosystems, conserving species, and guaranteeing the sustainability of aquatic resources. Recreational fishing is inherently biased towards large fish, and anglers possess the strength in numbers and geographical dispersion that enable them to sample the upper tiers of size distributions rarely encountered in standard fish surveys. We sought to further understand the ecological requirements and spatial seasonality of exceptionally sized black bass ( Micropterus spp.) via angler catches. Black bass > 3.6 kg were examined across 147 reservoirs in Texas, USA, with 2817 fish recorded by anglers into an online database in 2018–2024. Most fish were caught in late-winter and early-spring in line with spawning activities that included movements in-and-out of shallow water, nest building, and nest defense. Approximately 54 % of fish were caught with bottom-oriented fishing lures and techniques, and 40 % midwater; surface catches were less common. The efficacy of angling techniques varied seasonally. Those effective in winter were midwater, while those effective in summer were bottom or surface. Conversely, a combination of bottom and midwater techniques were effective in the fall and spring, suggesting cyclic habitat transitions. Moreover, the frequency with which fish were caught over various macrohabitats varied seasonally and cyclically. Our findings have the potential to inform habitat management that supports large predators and their migratory relocations. Our findings also underscore the value of using anglers and technology as sources of difficult-to-obtain fish and environmental data that may evade regular monitoring.

Texas↗

Mortality of centrarchid fishes in the Potomac drainage: Survey results and overview of potential contributing factors

Skin lesions and spring mortality events of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu and selected other species were first noted in the South Branch of the Potomac River in 2002. Since that year morbidity and mortality have also been observed in the Shenandoah and Monocacy rivers. Despite much research, no single pathogen, parasite, or chemical cause for the lesions and mortality has been identified. Numerous parasites, most commonly trematode metacercariae and myxozoans; the bacterial pathogens Aeromonas hydrophila , Aeromonas salmonicida , and Flavobacterium columnare ; and largemouth bass virus have all been observed. None have been consistently isolated or observed at all sites, however, nor has any consistent microscopic pathology of the lesions been observed. A variety of histological changes associated with exposure to environmental contaminants or stressors, including intersex (testicular oocytes), high numbers of macrophage aggregates, oxidative damage, gill lesions, and epidermal papillomas, were observed. The findings indicate that selected sensitive species may be stressed by multiple factors and constantly close to the threshold between a sustainable (healthy) and nonsustainable (unhealthy) condition. Fish health is often used as an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health, and these findings raise concerns about environmental degradation within the Potomac River drainage. Unfortunately, while much information has been gained from the studies conducted to date, due to the multiple state jurisdictions involved, competing interests, and other issues, there has been no coordinated approach to identifying and mitigating the stressors. This synthesis emphasizes the need for multiyear, interdisciplinary, integrative research to identify the underlying stressors and possible management actions to enhance ecosystem health.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia↗

Brackish groundwater and its potential as a resource in the southwestern United States

Secure, reliable, and sustainable water resources are fundamental to food production, energy independence, and the health of humans and ecosystems. But the large-scale development of fresh groundwater resources has stressed aquifers in some areas, causing declines in the amount of groundwater in storage and decreases in discharge to surface-water bodies like rivers and springs (Reilly and others, 2008). In some parts of the southwestern United States, the water supply is not adequate to meet demand without substantial effects on groundwater storage or surface discharge, and severe drought intensifies the stresses affecting water resources. In support of the national census of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed the national brackish groundwater assessment to provide information about brackish groundwater as a potential resource to augment or replace freshwater supplies (Stanton and others, 2017). The objectives of the brackish groundwater assessment were to consolidate available data into a comprehensive database of brackish groundwater resources in the United States and to produce a summary report about the distribution, physical and chemical characteristics, and use of brackish groundwater. This fact sheet summarizes the occurrence of brackish groundwater and factors affecting its usability in the southwestern United States (specifically the Southwest Basins region) reported for the national study. The map below (fig. 1) summarizes the brackish zones for the five largest principal aquifers within the southwestern United States, along with groundwater resources in the remaining part of the region (Reilly and others, 2008).

Fact Sheet↗

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California↗

Progress toward a National Water Census

Increasing demand and competition for limited regional water resources make it difficult to ensure adequate water availability for both human and ecological needs now and into the future. Recognizing the need to improve the tools and information that are available to effectively evaluate water-resource availability, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified a National Water Census (NWC) as one of its six core science directions for the decade 2007–17. In 2009, the SECURE Water Act (Public Law 111–11) authorized the USGS to develop a national water availability and use assessment program that would update the most recent national assessment of the status of water resources in the United States as well as develop the science to improve forecasts of water availability and quality for future needs. By evaluating large-scale effects of changes in land use and land cover, water use, and climate on occurrence and distribution of water, water quality, and human and aquatic-ecosystem health, the NWC will also help to inform a broader initiative by the Department of the Interior, WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow), which provides multiagency funding to pursue a sustainable water supply for the Nation as directed under the SECURE Water Act. Through the NWC, the USGS actively engages Federal, regional, and local stakeholders to identify research priorities and leverages current studies and program activities to provide information that is relevant at both the national and regional scales.

Fact Sheet↗

Assessing rangeland health under climate variability and change

RANGELAND HEALTH IN A CHANGING WORLD Rangeland health is an integrated metric that describes a complex suite of ecosystem properties and processes as applied to resource management. While the concept of “healthy” landscapes has a long history, the term “rangeland health” was codified in the US in 1994 as part of an effort to move towards a national, data driven, rangeland condition assessment (National Research Council 1994). Rangeland health encompasses the status of both soils and ecological processes as well as the condition of those ecosystems relative to ecological thresholds (e.g. “healthy”, “at-risk”, or “unhealthy"; National Research Council 1994). This latter application ensures that rangeland health assessments not only evaluate the conditions of plants and soils, but also gauge those conditions with respect to known or hypothesized ecological dynamics (Bestelmeyer et al. 2013) for a given set of abiotic constraints (climate, soil, and topographic setting). Thus, an assessment of rangeland health should identify the “degree to which the integrity of the soil and the ecological processes are sustained” (National Research Council 1994, Us Department of Agriculture 1997). Rangeland health attributes and assessment procedures have become widely utilized tools for measuring and monitoring dryland ecosystems, and they may provide valuable perspectives on rangeland response to climate change, although long-term directional change in environmental conditions represents a challenge for traditional rangeland health assessment frameworks.

Book chapter↗

Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): User guide for the Gulf Coast Monitoring and Assessment Portal

The Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act (RESTORE Act Final Rule at 31 C.F.R. Part 34) was signed into law on July 6, 2012. The RESTORE Act calls for a regional approach to restoring the long-term health of the valuable natural ecosystem and economy of the Gulf Coast region. The RESTORE Act dedicates 80 percent of civil and administrative penalties paid under the Clean Water Act, after the date of enactment, by the responsible parties in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the Gulf Coast Restoration Trust Fund (Trust Fund) for ecosystem restoration, economic recovery, and tourism promotion in the Gulf Coast region. In addition to creating the Trust Fund, the RESTORE Act established the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council). The Council includes the Governors of the states of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, the Secretaries of the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, the Army, Commerce, Homeland Security, and the Interior, and the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Council plays a key role in developing strategies and implementing projects that help ensure the Gulf of Mexico’s natural resources are sustainable and available for future generations. The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) was approved as a Gulf-wide investment by the Council in the 2015 Initial Funded Priorities List and is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the organization of basic, foundational components for a Gulf-wide monitoring network to measure the efficacy of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and built on existing monitoring programs and their data.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Comparing three approaches of evapotranspiration estimation in mixed urban vegetation; field-based, remote sensing-based and observational-based methods

Despite being the driest inhabited continent, Australia has one of the highest per capita water consumptions in the world. In addition, instead of having fit-for-purpose water supplies (using different qualities of water for different applications), highly treated drinking water is used for nearly all of Australia’s urban water supply needs, including landscape irrigation. The water requirement of urban landscapes, and particularly urban parklands, is of growing concern. The estimation of ET and subsequently plant water requirements in urban vegetation needs to consider the heterogeneity of plants, soils, water and climate characteristics. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET), which is the main component of a plant’s water requirement, in urban parks is highly desirable because this water maintains the health of green infrastructure and this in turn provides essential ecosystem services. This research contributes to a broader effort to establish sustainable irrigation practices within the Adelaide Parklands in Adelaide, South Australia.

Remote Sensing↗

Habitat Needs Assessment‐II for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program: Linking science to management perspectives

The Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program vision statement is for a healthier and more resilient Upper Mississippi River ecosystem that sustains the river’s multiple uses. To address this vision, the UMRR Program recently developed a suite of 12 indicators that quantify aspects of ecosystem health and resilience (i.e., connectivity, redundancy and diversity, and controlling variables). These indicators reflect the ability of large floodplain river ecosystems to adapt and respond to disturbances. The primary purpose of this document is to help inform the UMRR Program in selecting, designing, and evaluating future restoration projects using these indicators and professional knowledge to achieve the UMRR Program’s vision.

Report↗

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗

Urban ecosystem services and decision making for a green Philadelphia

Traditional approaches to urban development often do not account for, or recognize, the role of ecosystem services and the benefits these services provide to the health and well-being of city residents. Without such accounting, urban ecosystem services are likely to be degraded over time, with negative consequences for the sustainability of cities and the well-being of their residents (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Hirsch, 2008). On May 23, 2013, the Spatial Integration Laboratory for Urban Systems (SILUS), a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center and the Wharton GIS Lab, convened a one-day symposium—Urban Ecosystem Services and Decision Making: A Green Philadelphia—at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to examine the role of green infrastructure in the environmental, economic, and social well-being of cities. Cosponsored by the USGS and the Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR), the symposium brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers from a range of disciplines to advance a research agenda on the use of science in public decision making to inform investment in green infrastructure and ecosystem services in urban areas. The city of Philadelphia has recently implemented a program designed to sustain urban ecosystem services and advance the use of green infrastructure. In 2009, the Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability launched its Greenworks plan, establishing a citywide sustainability strategy. Major contributions towards its goals are being implemented in coordination with the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD). The Green City, Clean Waters initiative, the city’s nationally recognized stormwater management plan, was signed into action with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2012. The plan outlines a 25-year strategy to use green infrastructure to protect and improve the city’s watershed. Widespread support for the plan marks a citywide effort to factor environmental quality concerns into the city’s strategic planning, choosing to replace expensive and aging grey infrastructure, with innovative and resilient green infrastructure. The symposium focused on these city of Philadelphia initiatives and also on two new Federal- local partnership programs: America’s Great Outdoors, initiated to promote conservation and recreation, and the Urban Waters Federal Partnership, a multiagency effort to reconnect urban communities to their waterways. A second goal of the symposium was to advance a research agenda on urban ecosystem services. While there has been considerable work on ecosystem services, the discussion of the benefits provided by urban ecosystems is not as developed. Benefits range from improved water and air quality to quality of life gains, including aesthetic and recreational considerations. There is also need for additional focused research toward furthering the understanding of the multiple indirect benefits provided by urban ecosystem services (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). Moreover, there is a need for a greater understanding of how best to inform local decision making in this area, as local decision makers in cities across the country are increasingly recognizing the importance of developing sustainability measures for their immediate and long-term planning (United States Conference of Mayors, 2005). Approaching these local and regional plans from a holistic perspective has become a guiding principle of sustainability and resiliency. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the gains that have been achieved and to advance a research agenda on ecosystem services going forward. The day’s program included presentations on greening initiatives from the Philadelphia’s Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, as well as discussion about using an urban ecosystem services framework to evaluate these initiatives. Panel sessions included discussion of the Green City, Clean Waters initiative; a dialogue about the management of urban trees and green space; and a conversation addressing the needs for future research.

Pennsylvania↗

Coordinated river infrastructure decisions improve net social-ecological benefits

We explore the social, ecological, economic, and technical dimensions of sustainable river infrastructure development and the potential benefits of coordinating decisions such as dam removal and stream crossing improvement. Dam removal is common practice for restoring river habitat connectivity and ecosystem health. However, stream crossings such as culverts are often 15 times more abundant than dams and may pose similar ecological impacts. Using multi-objective optimization for a model system of 6100 dams and culverts in Maine, USA, we demonstrate substantial benefit-cost improvements provided by coordinating habitat connectivity decisions. Benefit-cost efficiency improves by two orders of magnitude when coordinating more decisions across wider areas, but this approach may cause inequitable resource distribution. Culvert upgrades improve roadway safety and habitat connectivity, creating cost-effective opportunities for coordinating and cost-sharing projects between conservationists and safety managers. Benefit-cost trends indicate significant overlaps in habitat and safety goals, encouraging flexible stakeholder collaborations and cost-sharing strategies.

Maine↗

Public lakes, private lakeshore: Modeling protection of native aquatic plants

Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221–279, 1977 ) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975 ), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey ( n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners’ behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

Minnesota↗

U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay Studies: Scientific Solutions for a Healthy Bay and Watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the science agency for the Department of Interior (DOI), has the critical role of providing objective science to document and understand ecosystem change in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. The human population in the Bay watershed , which grew from 8.1 million in 1950 to almost 16 million in 2000, has resulted in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in fish and bird populations. USGS scientists are leaders in understanding cause and effect of human activities and natural changes on water quality and the health of the ecosystem. The USGS interacts with resource managers and policy makers to use the science to adapt approaches for implementation, and assess effectiveness of, management actions for ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainability. Since the mid-1980s, the USGS has been an active partner in the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) , a multi-agency partnership led by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, working to achieve the restoration goals set forth in the Chesapeake 2000 agreement . This agreement established over 100 restoration commitments to be addressed by 2010. In 2005, which was the mid-point of the agreement, there was growing concern at all levels of government and by the public that ecological conditions in the Bay and its watershed had not significantly improved. The slow rate of improvement, coupled with the projected impact of human-population increase in the Bay watershed (fig. 1) , implied that many desired ecological conditions will not be achieved by 2010. To address these challenges, the USGS wrote a new science plan for 2006-2011 , and is synthesizing key findings to highlight the accomplishments from science activities for 2000-2005.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report↗

A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity. The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables better decision making for future agricultural activities as a means to reduce current, and prevent new, water-quality issues.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Preliminary United States-Mexico border watershed analysis, twin cities area of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora

The United States - Mexico border area faces the challenge of integrating aspects of its binational physical boundaries to form a unified or, at least, compatible natural resource management plan. Specified geospatial components such as stream drainages, mineral occurrences, vegetation, wildlife, and land-use can be analyzed in terms of their overlapping impacts upon one another. Watersheds have been utilized as a basic unit in resource analysis because they contain components that are interrelated and can be viewed as a single interactive ecological system. In developing and analyzing critical regional natural resource databases, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other federal and non-governmental agencies have adopted a ?watershed by watershed? approach to dealing with such complicated issues as ecosystem health, natural resource use, urban growth, and pollutant transport within hydrologic systems. These watersheds can facilitate the delineation of both large scale and locally important hydrologic systems and urban management parameters necessary for sustainable, diversified land-use. The twin border cities area of Nogales, Sonora and Nogales, Arizona, provide the ideal setting to demonstrate the utility and application of a complete, cross-border, geographic information systems (GIS) based, watershed analysis in the characterization of a wide range of natural resource as well as urban features and their interactions. In addition to the delineation of a unified, cross-border watershed, the database contains sewer/water line locations and status, well locations, geology, hydrology, topography, soils, geomorphology, and vegetation data, as well as remotely sensed imagery. This report is preliminary and part of an ongoing project to develop a GIS database that will be widely accessible to the general public, researchers, and the local land management community with a broad range of application and utility.

Arizona, Sonora↗