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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

Among the most frequently cited reports in the science of earthquake prediction is that by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) and Bernardi et al. (1991). They found anomalous enhancement of magnetic-field noise levels prior to the 18 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the ultra-low-frequency range (0.0110-10.001 Hz) from a ground-based sensor at Corralitos, CA, just 7 km from the earthquake epicenter. In this analysis, we re-examine all of the available Corralitos data (21 months from January 1989 to October 1990) and the logbook kept during this extended operational period. We also examine 1.0-Hz (1-s) data collected from Japan, 0.0167-Hz (1-min) data collected from the Fresno, CA magnetic observatory, and the global Kp magnetic-activity index. The Japanese data are of particular importance since their acquisition rate is sufficient to allow direct comparison with the lower-frequency bands of the Corralitos data. We identify numerous problems in the Corralitos data, evident from both straightforward examination of the Corralitos data on their own and by comparison with the Japanese and Fresno data sets. The most notable problems are changes in the baseline noise levels occurring during both the reported precursory period and at other times long before and after the earthquake. We conclude that the reported anomalous magnetic noise identified by Fraser-Smith et al. and Bernardi et al. is not related to the Loma Prieta earthquake but is an artifact of sensor-system malfunction. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Double point source W-phase inversion: Real-time implementation and automated model selection

Rapid and accurate characterization of an earthquake source is an extremely important and ever evolving field of research. Within this field, source inversion of the W-phase has recently been shown to be an effective technique, which can be efficiently implemented in real-time. An extension to the W-phase source inversion is presented in which two point sources are derived to better characterize complex earthquakes. A single source inversion followed by a double point source inversion with centroid locations fixed at the single source solution location can be efficiently run as part of earthquake monitoring network operational procedures. In order to determine the most appropriate solution, i.e., whether an earthquake is most appropriately described by a single source or a double source, an Akaike information criterion (AIC) test is performed. Analyses of all earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 and greater occurring since January 2000 were performed with extended analyses of the September 29, 2009 magnitude 8.1 Samoa earthquake and the April 19, 2014 magnitude 7.5 Papua New Guinea earthquake. The AIC test is shown to be able to accurately select the most appropriate model and the selected W-phase inversion is shown to yield reliable solutions that match published analyses of the same events.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Paleomagnetism and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of the Plio-Pleistocene Boring Volcanic Field: Implications for the geomagnetic polarity time scale and paleosecular variation

Paleomagnetic directions and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages have been determined for samples of lava flows from the same outcrops, where possible, for 84 eruptive units ranging in age from 3200 ka to 60 ka within the Boring Volcanic Field (BVF) of the Pacific Northwest, USA. This study expands upon our previous results for the BVF, and compares the combined results with the current geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS). Lava flows with transitional directions were found within the BVF at the Matuyama-Brunhes and Jaramillo-Matuyama polarity boundaries, and replicate ages corresponding to these and other boundaries have been newly ascertained. Although the BVF data generally agree with GPTS chronozone boundaries, they indicate that onset of the Gauss-Matuyama transition and Olduvai subchron occurred significantly earlier than given in the current time scale calibration. Additional comparisons show that the BVF results are consistent with recent statistical models of geomagnetic paleosecular variation.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake: A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters

Seismic intensity data based on first-hand accounts of shaking give valuable insight into historical and early instrumental earthquakes. Comparing an observed intensity distribution to intensity-prediction models based on modern calibration events allows the magnitude to be estimated for many historic earthquakes. Magnitude estimates can also potentially be refined for earthquakes for which limited instrumental data are available. However, the complicated nature of macroseismic data and the methods used to collect and interpret the data introduce significant uncertainties. In this paper, we illustrate these challenges and possible solutions using the 1952 Kern County, California, earthquake as a case study. Published estimates of its magnitude vary from M W 7.2–7.5, making it possibly the second largest in California during the 20th century. We considered over 1100 first-hand reports of shaking, supplemented with other data, and inferred the magnitude in several ways using intensity prediction equations, yielding a preferred intensity magnitude M I 7.2 ± 0.2, where the uncertainty reflects our judgement. The revised intensity distribution reveals stronger shaking on the hanging wall, south of the surface expression of the White Wolf fault, than on the footwall. Characterizing the magnitude and shaking distribution of this early instrumental earthquake can help improve estimation of the seismic hazard of the region. Such reinterpreted intensities for historic earthquakes, combined with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Did You Feel It? data for more recent events, can be used to produce a uniform shaking dataset with which earthquake hazard map performance can be assessed.

California

Electrical conductivity of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system

Electromagnetic geophysical methods image the electrical conductivity of the subsurface. Electrical conductivity is an intrinsic material property that is sensitive to temperature, composition, porosity, volatile and/or melt content, and other physical properties relevant to the solid Earth. Therefore, imaging the electrical structure of the crust and mantle yields valuable information on the physical and chemical state of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system. Here we explore the viability of the passive magnetotelluric (MT) method for constraining upper mantle properties. We approach this problem in four successive steps: 1) review the electrical conductivity behavior of relevant materials; 2) predict the bulk electrical conductivity structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere for a suite of representative physical states; 3) generate synthetic MT data from the conductivity predictions; 4) compare and discuss the conductivity predictions and the synthetic data with select case studies from oceanic and continental settings. Our aim is to clarify the uncertainties associated with drawing inferences from electrical conductivity observations and ultimately to provide a basis for assigning confidence levels to interpretations.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Slip distribution and rupture history of the August 11, 2012, double earthquakes in Ahar – Varzaghan, Iran, using joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data

We use combined teleseismic and strong motion data sets to investigate finite-fault slip models for a double of earthquakes that occurred on August 11, 2012, in northwestern Iran near the cities of Ahar and Varzaghan. The data include teleseismic P-waveforms retrieved from broadband seismic stations located between 30°–94° from the earthquakes and local strong motion data recorded by the Iran Strong Motion Network, installed and operated by the Building and Housing Research Centre. We first invert teleseismic P-waveforms and local strong motion data separately. For the first event (12:23 UTC), the teleseismic broadband inversion yields a somewhat deeper and simpler distribution of slip than the local strong motion inversion. The strong motion inversion results in a more complex distribution because of higher frequency content but can also be influenced by complexities in the propagation path. For the second event (12:34 UTC), the slip distribution from strong motion data is more similar to the teleseismic result and shows a simple slip area with a small relative movement to the west. To resolve the differences between the results of these two data sets and obtain a better constrained slip model, we perform a joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data. The joint inversion for the first event shows two asperities with a maximum slip of 3.9 m up- dip from the hypocenter and extending to the west between depths of 1 and 5 km. A second narrower high-slip area is seen just above the hypocenter from 6 to 10 km depth. The total moment for this earthquake is calculated to be M o = 3.8 × 10 25 dyn-cm (3.8 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.4). For the second event, the results of the joint inversion show a simple slip distribution that is mainly confined in a single patch around the hypocenter with a depth range from about 10 to 13 km and maximum slip of 1.9 m. We compute a total seismic moment of M o = 1.6 × 10 25 dyn-cm (1.6 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.1) for the second event. The largest stress drops for the first event occur above the hypocenter with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 120 bar (12 Mpa). For the second event, the maximum stress drop occurs at the reported focal depth with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 80 bar (8 Mpa).

East Anatolian Fault

Ground truth seismic events and location capability at Degelen mountain, Kazakhstan

We utilized nuclear explosions from the Degelen Mountain sub-region of the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS), Kazakhstan, to assess seismic location capability directly. Excellent ground truth information for these events was either known or was estimated from maps of the Degelen Mountain adit complex. Origin times were refined for events for which absolute origin time information was unknown using catalog arrival times, our ground truth location estimates, and a time baseline provided by fixing known origin times during a joint hypocenter determination (JHD). Precise arrival time picks were determined using a waveform cross-correlation process applied to the available digital data. These data were used in a JHD analysis. We found that very accurate locations were possible when high precision, waveform cross-correlation arrival times were combined with JHD. Relocation with our full digital data set resulted in a mean mislocation of 2 km and a mean 95% confidence ellipse (CE) area of 6.6 km2 (90% CE: 5.1 km2), however, only 5 of the 18 computed error ellipses actually covered the associated ground truth location estimate. To test a more realistic nuclear test monitoring scenario, we applied our JHD analysis to a set of seven events (one fixed) using data only from seismic stations within 40?? epicentral distance. Relocation with these data resulted in a mean mislocation of 7.4 km, with four of the 95% error ellipses covering less than 570 km2 (90% CE: 438 km2), and the other two covering 1730 and 8869 km2 (90% CE: 1331 and 6822 km2). Location uncertainties calculated using JHD often underestimated the true error, but a circular region with a radius equal to the mislocation covered less than 1000 km2 for all events having more than three observations. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Moment-tensor solutions estimated using optimal filter theory: Global seismicity, 2001

This paper is the 12th in a series published yearly containing moment-tensor solutions computed at the US Geological Survey using an algorithm based on the theory of optimal filter design ( Sipkin, 1982 and Sipkin, 1986b ). An inversion has been attempted for all earthquakes with a magnitude, m b or M S , of 5.5 or greater. Previous listings include solutions for earthquakes that occurred from 1981 to 2000 ( Sipkin, 1986b ; Sipkin and Needham, 1989 , Sipkin and Needham, 1991 , Sipkin and Needham, 1992 , Sipkin and Needham, 1993 , Sipkin and Needham, 1994a and Sipkin and Needham, 1994b ; Sipkin and Zirbes, 1996 and Sipkin and Zirbes, 1997 ; Sipkin et al., 1998 , Sipkin et al., 1999 , Sipkin et al., 2000a , Sipkin et al., 2000b and Sipkin et al., 2002 ). The entire USGS moment-tensor catalog can be obtained via anonymous FTP at ftp://ghtftp.cr.usgs.gov . After logging on, change directory to “momten”. This directory contains two compressed ASCII files that contain the finalized solutions, “mt.lis.Z” and “fmech.lis.Z”. “mt.lis.Z” contains the elements of the moment tensors along with detailed event information; “fmech.lis.Z” contains the decompositions into the principal axes and best double-couples. The fast moment-tensor solutions for more recent events that have not yet been finalized and added to the catalog, are gathered by month in the files “jan01.lis.Z”, etc. “fmech.doc.Z” describes the various fields.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Review of magnetic field monitoring near active faults and volcanic calderas in California: 1974-1995

Differential magnetic fields have been monitored along the San Andreas fault and the Long Valley caldera since 1974. At each monitoring location, proton precession magnetometers sample total magnetic field intensity at a resolution of 0.1 nT or 0.25 nT. Every 10 min, data samples are transmitted via satellite telemetry to Menlo Park, CA for processing and analysis. The number of active magnetometer sites has varied during the past 21 years from 6 to 25, with 12 sites currently operational. We use this network to identify magnetic field changes generated by earthquake and volcanic processes. During the two decades of monitoring, five moderate earthquakes (M5.9 to M7.3) have occurred within 20 km of magnetometer sites located along the San Andreas fault and only one preseismic signal of 1.5 nT has been observed. During moderate earthquakes, coseismic magnetic signals, with amplitudes from 0.7 nT to 1.3 nT, have been identified for 3 of the 5 events. These observations are generally consistent with those calculated from simple seismomagnetic models of these earthquakes and near-fault coseismic magnetic field disturbances rarely exceed one nanotesla. These data are consistent with the concept of low shear stress and relatively uniform displacement of the San Andreas fault system as expected due to high pore fluid pressure on the fault. A systematic decrease of 0.8-1 nT/year in magnetic field has occurred in the Long Valley caldera since 1989. These magnetic field data are similar in form to observed geodetically measured displacements from inflation of the resurgent dome. A simple volcanomagnetic model involving pressure increase of 50 MPa/a at a depth of 7 km under the resurgent dome can replicate these magnetic field observations. This model is derived from the intrusion model that best fits the surface deformation data. ?? 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Deep earthquakes beneath the Fiji Basin, SW Pacific: Earth's most intense deep seismicity in stagnant slabs

Previous work has suggested that many of the deep earthquakes beneath the Fiji Basin occur in slab material that has been detached and foundered to the bottom of the transition zone or has been laid down by trench migration in a similar recumbent position. Since nowhere else in the Earth do so many earthquakes occur in slabs stagnated in the transition zone, these earthquakes merit closer study. Accordingly, we have assembled from historical and modern data a comprehensive catalogue of the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms of well-located deep events in the geographic area between the bottoms of the main Vanuatu and Tonga Wadati-Benioff zones. Two regions of deep seismogenesis are recognized there: (i) 163 deep shocks have occurred north of 15??S in the Vityaz Group from 1949 to 1996. These seismological observations and the absence of other features characteristic of active subduction suggest that the Vityaz group represents deep failure in a detached slab that has foundered to a horizontal orientation near the bottom of the transition zone. (ii) Another group of nearly 50 'outboard' deep shocks occur between about 450 and 660 km depth, west of the complexly buckled and offset western edge of the Tonga Wadati-Benioff zone. Their geometry is in the form of two or possibly three small-circle arcs that roughly parallel the inferred motion of Tonga trench migration. Earthquakes in the southernmost of these arcs occur in a recumbent high-seismic-wavespeed slab anomaly that connects both to the main inclined Tonga anomaly to the east and a lower mantle anomaly to the west [Van der Hilst, R., 1995. Complex morphology of subducted lithosphere in the mantle beneath the Tonga trench. Nature, Vol. 374, pp. 154-157.]. Both groups show complexity in their focal mechanisms. The major question raised by these observations is the cause of this apparent temporary arrest in the descent of the Tonga slab into the lower mantle. We approach these questions by considering the effects of buoyant metastable peridotite in cold slab material that was detached and rapidly foundered, or was buckled, segmented and laid out in the transition zone.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Quantifying uncertainty for remote spectroscopy of surface composition

Remote surface measurements by imaging spectrometers play an important role in planetary and Earth science. To make these measurements, investigators calibrate instrument data to absolute units, invert physical models to estimate atmospheric effects, and then determine surface properties from the spectral reflectance. This study quantifies the uncertainty in this process. Global missions demand predictive uncertainty models that can estimate future errors for varied environments and observing conditions. Here we validate uncertainty predictions with remote surface composition retrievals and in situ measurements in a field analogue of Earth and planetary exploration. We consider rover transects at Cuprite, Nevada, and remote observations by NASA's Next- Generation Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG). We show that accounting for input uncertainties can benefit mineral detection methods such as constrained spectrum fitting. This suggests that operational uncertainty estimates could improve future NASA missions like the Earth Mineral dust source InvesTigation (EMIT) and the Lunar Trailblazer mission, as well as NASA's Decadal Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) Investigation.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Current activity on the Martian surface: A key subject for future exploration

One of the fundamental discoveries in Mars science in the last decade has been the extent and importance of current surface activity. Recent results have shifted our view of Mars from a world where the most interesting geologic events were in the distant past (similar to the Moon) to a world that undergoes active evolution and one where understanding the present is key to deciphering the planet’s history. When input was requested for the last Planetary Science Decadal Survey, some observations of surface changes had been published, but the number of detections was small and their significance not fully appreciated. Since that time, detections have proliferated, driven primarily by the long-term operation of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) as well as landed observations of aeolian activity. In addition to observed changes, theory suggests that additional important surface processes are likely active but not yet observed because orbital data are limited in space and time and landed studies are rare. Understanding current Martian surface processes is a fundamental science question in itself, as it provides a test for physical and terrestrial analog-based models of specific geological processes acting under non-Earth planetary and environmental conditions. It is also an essential step for reading Mars’ geologic history and providing input to climate models: without understanding current dynamic processes, we cannot understand how they have varied during recent climate cycles, nor how they are reflected in ancient rock or modern ice records. Understanding the rates and types of current surface activity is also highly relevant to selecting geological samples, setting Planetary Protection rules, and understanding the hazards and environment that would be experienced by future human explorers.

Bulletin of the AAS