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A comparison of direct & indirect survey methods for estimating colonial nesting waterbird populations

Population estimates derived from monitoring efforts can be sensitive to the survey method selected, potentially leading to biased estimates and low precision relative to true population size. While small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) present a unique opportunity to survey avian populations while limiting disturbance, relatively little is known about how this method compares with more traditional approaches. In this study we compared population estimates of Snowy ( Egretta thula ) and Cattle Egrets ( Bubulcus ibis ) in a mixed-species colony in the Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, USA) derived from UAS photo counts, flush counts, flight-line surveys, and in-colony nest counts along with the time required to derive an estimate via each approach. We found that UAS counts and flush counts produced lower pair estimates than nest counts and flight-line surveys ( P < 0.05), and required dramatically less time (x̄ = 6, 8, 84 and 90 min, respectively). These results suggest that while UAS have the potential to collect valuable survey data from breeding colonies that are hard to reach or are especially sensitive to the disturbance inherent in other methods, inherent biases should be considered and caution should be used when comparing results between survey types.

Maryland

Avian predation on juvenile and adult Lost River and Shortnose Suckers: An updated multi-predator species evaluation

Previous research suggests that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds may negatively influence the survival of Lost River Suckers (LRS) Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers (SNS) Chasmistes brevirostris in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), USA. However, estimates of predation from past studies, which were based on suckers with PIT tags, represent minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of tags that were consumed by birds and deposited beyond their breeding colony. To address this uncertainty, we fed PIT-tagged suckers to American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos to estimate deposition probabilities. A hierarchical Bayesian model was then used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish that were consumed) on juvenile suckers that were released as part of the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) and on wild juvenile and adult LRS and SNS during 2009–2020. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated to be 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 tags consumed, 47 tags on average were deposited on breeding colonies by birds. Deposition-corrected estimates of predation rates were approximately two times greater than those previously reported and ranged annually from 4.3% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.7%) to 8.5% (6.3–12.7%) on SARP juvenile suckers, from 4.3% (0.9–13.2%) to 10.5% (3.8–24.5%) on wild juvenile suckers, and from 0.1% (<0.1–0.3%) to 7.2% (2.8–16.4%) on adult suckers, depending on species and location. Results suggest that predation by colonial waterbirds, although not the original cause of sucker declines, was a substantial source of sucker mortality in some years. Future studies should consider models that jointly estimate both predation and survival and models that include environmental factors that potentially influence sucker susceptibility to avian predators in the UKB.

California, Oregon

Avian predation of juvenile Lost River and Shortnose Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake: An assessment of Sucker assisted rearing program releases during 2018–2020

To bolster recruitment in Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed Lost River Suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose Suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and its partners have implemented the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP). As part of this program, juvenile suckers were reared in captivity, implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags (n= 8,857), and released into the Upper Klamath Lake or its tributaries during 2018–2020. Previous research suggests that predation by American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), Double-crested Cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), and Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia) may negatively influence sucker survival, particularly predation on juvenile suckers. Estimates of predation impacts from past studies, however, represented minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of consumed tags that were deposited by birds on their breeding colony where PIT tag recovery efforts took place. To estimate and account for deposition probabilities, we conducted a field study in which we fed pelicans PIT-tagged juvenile suckers (n = 401). We accounted for deposition probabilities of cormorants and terns by using previously published estimates. Sucker PIT tags were recovered from pelican, cormorant, and tern nesting sites in the UKB following each breeding season and a hierarchical Bayesian model was used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish consumed) on SARP releases as well as naturally-reared or wild juvenile suckers and adult suckers that were PIT-tagged in Upper Klamath Lake and Clear Lake Reservoir. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated at 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 PIT tags consumed, on average, 47 were deposited by pelicans on breeding colonies. Estimates of predation rates that incorporate corrections for deposition on SARP releases ranged annually from 4.4% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.8%) to 8.8% (6.2–13.3%) during 2018–2020. Results suggest that colonial waterbird predation impacts on SARP releases likely constituted a small, but unknown, component of total mortality for suckers released into the Upper Klamath Lake system. Predation impacts on SARP juvenile suckers and wild juvenile suckers, which were estimated annually at 4.7% (1.0–13.9%) to 14.9% (7.6–29.3%), were consistently higher than those observed on adult suckers, with predation on adult suckers typically less than 4.0% of available fish annually. Future predation studies may consider models that integrate both live and dead detections of PIT-tagged suckers to generate more accurate and precise estimates of survival following release, as well as models that consider environmental factors that influence sucker susceptibility to colonial waterbird predation. Such models would provide a more holistic understanding of the degree to which avian predation limits the survival of ESA-listed suckers in the UKB.

Oregon

Social attraction used to establish Caspian tern nesting colonies in San Francisco Bay

Conservation of colonial waterbird breeding populations often includes restoring historic nesting habitat or establishing new nesting habitat in protected areas. However, colonization of new or restored nesting habitat may be hindered by the lack of social cues from nesting conspecifics to attract prospecting birds. Social attraction, whereby decoys and colony sound recordings are used to mimic active nesting colonies, has been used successfully to establish waterbird nesting colonies throughout the world. We constructed islands, modified the substrate so that it was attractive to nesting Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), and then used social attraction to establish nesting colonies within two managed ponds in San Francisco Bay, California where Caspian terns had not previously nested. During the 2015–2017 breeding seasons, we deployed decoys of adult Caspian terns, broadcasted colony sound recordings, and monitored Caspian tern response. Caspian terns formed nesting colonies within weeks of social attraction deployment at each of the two ponds in 2015, and the size of these colonies increased in each subsequent year of the study. In 2017, the final year of the study, we estimated a minimum of 501 breeding pairs between the two colonies, making them two of the three largest Caspian tern colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary. In total, these two colonies produced 1343 nests and 531 fledglings over the three-year study period. Nest densities were low (mean: 0.29 nests/m2 of active colony area) compared to other studies, and greater than 80% of the modified island habitat remained unused by nesting Caspian terns in 2017, suggesting that there is additional space for future colony growth. The successful establishment of two of the largest Caspian tern nesting colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary in just three years demonstrates the potential of using island construction and habitat modifications, combined with social attraction measures to establish waterbird nesting colonies.

California

The use of natural vs. man-modified wetlands by shorebirds and waterbirds

The loss of wetlands continues world-wide. The impact especially has been felt in coastal areas, but water management elsewhere has resulted in marked reductions of aquatic bird populations. Concern for wetland management led to the convocation of a symposium on waterbird and shorebird use of natural and man-modified wetlands in December 1985 at the first joint meeting of the Colonial Waterbird Group and the Pacific Seabird Group. Contributions discussed a wide cross-section of taxa, geographic area, wetland type, and level of approach. Coverage included North America, South America, and Europe.

Colonial Waterbirds

Multiple-factor influences upon feeding flight rates at wading bird colonies (Alias: Are flight-line counts useful?)

The temporal patterns of feeding, resting, and reproductive behavior in colonial wading birds have been studied by a number of investigators (Recher and Recher 1972, King 1974, Capen 1978, Custer and Osborn 1978, Kushlan 1978) both on a short-term (daily) and long-term (annual) basis. In coastal marine environments, activities at colonies are influenced by tides (Recher and Recher 1972, Krebs 1974, Custer and Osborn 1978), time of day (Kushlan 1978) and phase of the nesting cycle (Kahl 1964). The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to examine the effects of tide, time of day (physical factors), nesting phase, colony site, and spe cies identity (biological factors) on feeding flight rates at breeding col onies and, as a result of this, (2) to evaluate the usefulness of feeding flight counts as an index of the number of nests in the colony. Earlier work suggests that the relationship between the number of in dividuals flying to and from the nesting colony may be quite consistent with nest numbers. Thus, by monitoring flights from remote locations, ob servers might obtain relatively accurate census data while minimizing time and disturbance at colonies. Recent concern for the deleterious impact of humans at waterbird colonies (Buckley and Buckley 1976, Ellison and Cleary 1978) underscores the need to investigate alternative census methods.

Conference Paper

Preliminary evaluation of behavioral response of nesting waterbirds to small unmanned aircraft flight

Small unmanned aircraft systems present an emerging technology with the potential to survey colonial waterbird populations while reducing disturbance in comparison to traditional ground counts. Recent research with these systems has been performed on some colonially nesting avian species; however, none have focused on wading bird species. During 2015–2016, this study tested the behavioral response of a mixed-species rookery (Cattle Egret ( Bubulcus ibis ), Snowy Egret ( Egretta thula ), Glossy Ibis ( Plegadis falcinellus ) and a groundnesting colony of Common Terns ( Sterna hirundo )) in shrub habitat to small unmanned aircraft system flights at 12 m, 15 m, 30 m, and 50 m. Even at the lowest altitudes, the birds either showed no reaction or acclimated within 60 sec of the fly-over. Conversely, physically entering the colony to conduct ground surveys resulted in all Common Terns flushing from their nests beginning when the observer was 50 m away and required significantly more time in the colony overall: ~30–60 min vs. ~3–7 min with the small unmanned aircraft system. While this study focuses only on the behavioral response of nesting birds and not comparison of count estimates, these results provide preliminary evidence that small unmanned aircraft systems provide the potential to monitor colonial nesting bird populations while minimizing disturbance to the colony.

Waterbirds

Reproductive success, developmental anomalies and environmental contaminants in double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus)

To test an association between environmental contaminants and the prevalence of congenital anomalies in colonial waterbirds, we collected representative eggs for chemical analysis from double-crested cormorant nests at colonies in Lake Michigan, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Winnipegosis, Manitoba, Canada, and periodically revisited the nests to determine the hatching success, survivorship of hatchlings, and number of deformed hatchlings in the remainder of each clutch. Total concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in eggs were determined by capillary gas chromatography. The combined activity of planar chlorinated hydrocarbons (PCHs) in the eggs was measured in an in vitro bioassay based on the induction of ethoxyresorufin- O -deethylase (EROD) activity in rat hepatoma cells. The combined EROD induction activity was expressed as 2,3,7,8–tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ). Total concentrations of PCBs and TCDD-EQ were seven to eight times greater in eggs from Lake Michigan (7.8 μg/g and 138 pg/g, respectively) than in those from Lake Winnipegosis (1.0 μg/g and 19 pg/g, respectively). The proportion of eggs hatching at the Lake Michigan colony (59%) was less ( p < 0.05) than at Lake Winnipegosis (70%), and the prevalence of hatchlings with deformed bills was greater ( p < 0.001) at Lake Michigan (0.79 vs. 0.06%). However, within the Lake Michigan colony, concentrations of PCBs and TCDD-EQ were not correlated with either hatching success or the occurrence of deformities in nestlings.

Manitoba, Wisconsin

A catalog of Louisiana's nesting seabird colonies

Summarizing his colonial nesting waterbird survey experiences along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in a paper presented to the Colonial Waterbird Group of the Waterbird Society (Portnoy 1978), bird biologist John W. Portnoy stated, “This huge concentration of nesting waterbirds, restricted almost entirely to the wetlands and estuaries of southern Louisiana, is unmatched in all of North America; for example, a 1975 inventory of wading birds along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida [Custer and Osborn, in press], tallied 250,000 breeding [waterbirds] of 14 species, in contrast with the 650,000 birds of 15 species just from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay.” The “650,000 birds” to which Portnoy referred, were tallied by him in a 1976 survey of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama (see below, under “Major Surveys” section). According to the National Atlas of Coastal Waterbird Colonies in the Contiguous United States: 1976-82 (Spendelow and Patton 1988), the percentages of the total U.S. populations of Laughing Gull (11%), Forster's Tern (52%), Royal Tern (16%), Sandwich Tern (77%), and Black Skimmer (44%) which annually nest in Louisiana are significant – perhaps crucially so in the cases of Forster's Tern, Sandwich Tern, and Black Skimmer. Nearly three decades after Spendelow and Patton's determinations above, coastal Louisiana still stands out as the major center of colonial wading bird and seabird nesting in all of the United States. Within those three intervening decades, however, the collective habitats which comprise Louisiana's now fragile coastal zone have taken major hits from commercial/residential, oil & gas, and other industrial development, primarily in the form of coastal erosion exacerbated by these and other factors (Portnoy 1978, Spendelow and Patton 1988, Martin and Lester 1990, Green, et al. 2006). Moreover, during this same period, both geologic subsidence rates (Tornqvist et al. 2008) and mean sea-level (Tornqvist et al. 2002) have increased, along with significant tropical storm activity; all of which have combined to impact available marsh, barrier island, beach, and dredge spoil nesting habitat for waterbirds, especially seabirds, throughout the coastal zone of Louisiana. The primary objective of this publication is to detail those coastal Louisiana colonial seabird nesting sites for which we have reasonably accurate data, in a tabular, site-by-site format. All major survey (1976-2008) data of site-by-site seabird species counts, as well as several smaller data sets, referred to in the site history tables as “miscellaneous observations” obtained during the May-June seabird breeding period, are included. It is our hope that these data will provide a dependable foundation from which future colonial seabird nesting surveys might be planned and carried out, as well as showcase the importance of coastal Louisiana's seabird rookeries, and contribute to their conservation.

Louisiana

Effects of local shoreline and subestuary watershed condition on waterbird community integrity: Influences of geospatial scale and season in the Chesapeake Bay

In many coastal regions throughout the world, there is increasing pressure to harden shorelines to protect human infrastructures against sea level rise, storm surge, and erosion. This study examines waterbird community integrity in relation to shoreline hardening and land use characteristics at three geospatial scales: (1) the shoreline scale characterized by seven shoreline types: bulkhead, riprap, developed, natural marsh, Phragmites- dominated marsh, sandy beach, and forest; (2) the local subestuary landscape scale including land up to 500 m inland of the shoreline; and (3) the watershed scale >500 m from the shoreline. From 2010 to 2014, we conducted waterbird surveys along the shoreline and open water within 21 subestuaries throughout the Chesapeake Bay during two seasons to encompass post-breeding shorebirds and colonial waterbirds in late summer and migrating and wintering waterfowl in late fall. We employed an Index of Waterbird Community Integrity (IWCI) derived from mean abundance of individual waterbird species and scores of six key species attributes describing each species’ sensitivity to human disturbance, and then used this index to characterize communities in each subestuary and season. IWCI scores ranged from 14.3 to 19.7. Multivariate regression model selection showed that the local shoreline scale had the strongest influence on IWCI scores. At this scale, percent coverage of bulkhead and Phragmites along shorelines were the strongest predictors of IWCI, both with negative relationships. Recursive partitioning revealed that when subestuary shoreline coverage exceeded thresholds of approximately 5% Phragmites or 8% bulkhead, IWCI scores decreased. Our results indicate that development at the shoreline scale has an important effect on waterbird community integrity, and that shoreline hardening and invasive Phragmites each have a negative effect on waterbirds using subestuarine systems.

Chesapeake Bay

Quantifying avian predation on fish populations: integrating predator-specific deposition probabilities in tag-recovery studies

Accurate assessment of specific mortality factors is vital to prioritize recovery actions for threatened and endangered species. For decades, tag recovery methods have been used to estimate fish mortality due to avian predation. Predation probabilities derived from fish tag recoveries on piscivorous waterbird colonies typically reflect minimum estimates of predation due to an unknown and unaccounted-for fraction of tags that are consumed but not deposited on-colony (i.e., deposition probability). We applied an integrated tag recovery modeling approach in a Bayesian context to estimate predation probabilities that accounted for predator-specific tag detection and deposition probabilities in a multiple-predator system. Studies of PIT tag deposition were conducted across three bird species nesting at seven different colonies in the Columbia River basin, USA. Tag deposition probabilities differed significantly among predator species (Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia : deposition probability = 0.71, 95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.51&ndash;0.89; double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus : 0.51, 95% CRI = 0.34&ndash;0.70; California gulls Larus californicus : 0.15, 95% CRI = 0.11&ndash;0.21) but showed little variation across trials within a species or across years. Data from a 6-year study (2008&ndash;2013) of PIT-tagged juvenile Snake River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act) indicated that colony-specific predation probabilities ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.17 and varied by predator species, colony location, and year. Integrating the predator-specific deposition probabilities increased the predation probabilities by a factor of approximately 1.4 for Caspian terns, 2.0 for double-crested cormorants, and 6.7 for California gulls compared with traditional minimum predation rate methods, which do not account for deposition probabilities. Results supported previous findings on the high predation impacts from strictly piscivorous waterbirds nesting in the Columbia River estuary (i.e., terns and cormorants), but our findings also revealed greater impacts of a generalist predator species (i.e., California gulls) than were previously documented. Approaches used in this study allow for direct comparisons among multiple fish mortality factors and considerably improve the reliability of tag recovery models for estimating predation probabilities in multiple-predator systems.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Double-crested cormorant studies at Little Galloo Island, Lake Ontario in 2008: Diet composition, fish consumption and the efficacy of management activities in reducing fish predation

For almost two decades Little Galloo Island (LGI)has supported the largest colony of double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario. Cormorant nest counts on the island since the early 1990's have averaged about 5,000 per year reaching a high of 8,400 in 1996. Johnson et al. (2008) estimate that cormorants from LGI alone have consumed 400 million fish since 1992. The proliferation of cormorants in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario has coincided with declines in two important recreational fish species, smallmouth bass and yellow perch. Lantry et al. (2002) and Burnett et al. (2002) provide convincing evidence linking cormorant population increases to declining eastern basin smallmouth bass and yellow perch stocks. Decline of these fish stocks is evident only in the eastern basin, suggesting a localized problem which is consistent with the halo effect where large piscivorous waterbird colonies may deplete local fish stocks (Birt et al. 1987). The year 2008 marked the seventeenth consecutive year of study of the food habits and fish consumption of LGI cormorants, and represented the tenth consecutive year evaluating the efficacy of management activities to control the reproductive success of cormorants nesting at LGI. The program consists mainly of spraying cormorant eggs with oil as well as the culling of adult and immature birds.This paper reports the findings of work carried outin 2008 at LGI.

Lake Ontario

Double-crested Cormorant studies at Little Galloo Island, Lake Ontario in 2013: Diet composition, fish consumption and the efficacy of management activities in reducing fish predation

For almost two decades Little Galloo Island (LGI) has supported a large colony of Double-crested Cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario. Cormorant nest counts on the island since the early 1990's have averaged 4,297 per year. However, less than 2,000 pairs have nested on the island in three of the past five years. The highest count was reached in 1996 with 8,410 nesting pairs on the island. Johnson et al. (2013) estimated that cormorants from LGI alone have consumed 504 million fish since 1992. The proliferation of cormorants in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario coincided with declines in two important recreational fish species, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolemieu ) and yellow perch ( Perca falvescens ). Lantry et al. (2002) and Burnett et al. (2002) provide convincing evidence linking cormorant population increases to declining eastern basin smallmouth bass and yellow perch stocks. Decline of these fish stocks was evident only in the eastern basin, suggesting a localized problem, which is consistent with the halo effect where large piscivorous waterbird colonies may deplete local fish stocks (Birt et al. 1987). The year 2013 marked the twenty second consecutive year of study of the food habits and fish consumption of LGI cormorants and the fifteenth consecutive year evaluating the efficacy of management activities to control the reproductive success of cormorants nesting at LGI. The program consists mainly of spraying cormorant eggs with food grade vegetable oil as well as the culling of adult and immature birds. This paper reports the findings of work carried out in 2013 at LGI.

New York

A review of factors affecting the susceptibility of juvenile salmonids to avian predation

We reviewed studies of piscivorous colonial waterbird predation on juvenile salmonids to synthesize current knowledge of factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predators. Specifically, we examined peer-reviewed publications and reports from academic, governmental, and nongovernmental agencies to identify commonalities and differences in susceptibility of salmonids to avian predation, with a focus on mark–recovery studies in the Columbia River basin. Factors hypothesized to influence salmonid susceptibility to avian predation were grouped into four general categories: (1) salmonid species and populations, (2) environmental factors, (3) prey density, predator density, and migration timing, and (4) prey characteristics. Our review focused on predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia , double-crested cormorants Nannopterum auritum , and gull species Larus spp. as these are the most well-studied avian predators of salmonids. Results indicated that predator–prey interactions varied across salmonid species and populations and species of avian predator. Inferences across studies supported multiple hypotheses regarding predator–prey dynamics, including environmental factors that influence prey exposure to predators (e.g., river flows, turbidity, alternative prey), variation in predator and prey abundances, predator characteristics (e.g., foraging behavior, colony location), and prey characteristics (e.g., fish length, condition). Mark–recovery studies of avian predation on fish populations have greatly improved our understanding of the factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predation, the relative contributions of abiotic and biotic factors to predation susceptibility, and the extent to which avian predation affects fish survival and the viability of prey populations. Future studies that jointly model predation and survival and the factors affecting those processes will further broaden our understanding of predator–prey dynamics and directly evaluate the effects of predation on prey population dynamics.

Article

Ecotoxicology of organochlorine chemicals in birds of the Great Lakes

Silent Spring was fulfilled in the United States with passage of environmental legislation such as the Clean Water Act, the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, and the Toxic Substance Control Act in the 1970s. Carson's writings, television interviews, and testimony before Congress alerted a nation and the world to the unintended effects of persistent, bioaccumulative chemicals on populations of fish, wildlife, and possibly humans. Her writings in the popular press brought attention to scientific findings that declines in populations of a variety of birds were directly linked to the widespread use of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in agriculture, public health, and horticulture. By the 1970s, DDT and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were being banned or phased out, and the intent of these regulatory acts became apparent in a number of locations across the United States, including the Great Lakes. Concentrations of DDT and its major product of transformation, dichlorodiphenylchloroethane (DDE), were decreasing in top predators, such as bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), osprey (Pandion haliaetus), colonial waterbirds, and other fish-eating wildlife. Eggshell thinning and the associated mortality of bird embryos caused by DDE had decreased in the Great Lakes and elsewhere by the early 1980s.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii .

Oikos

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk