Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Dynamics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Oil and gas reclamation on US public lands: How it works and improving the process with land potential concepts

• There are three general stages of a well's life on US public land: 1) the permitting process to drill, 2) active extraction of fossil fuel resource, and 3) plugging and abandonment of well. • There is no national standard for oil and gas reclamation in the United States similar to mining and therefore current reclamation practices and standards fail to achieve long-term effectiveness across the western United States. • A reclaimed well pad's land potential is determined by 3 properties: static (e.g., climate), dynamic (e.g., soil stability), and process (e.g., water retention). • Understanding a reclaimed well pad's land potential enables federal land agencies to outline surface reclamation goals and requirements consistently and clearly. • Monitoring for land potential increases the capacity of the private industry to practice adaptive management by enabling companies to respond to plant community changes while maintaining long-term progress toward recovery.

Rangelands↗
USGS2021

Holocene hydroclimatic reorganizations in northwest Canada inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes

Sub-centennial oxygen ( δ 18 O) isotopes of ostracod and authigenic calcite from Squanga Lake provides evidence of hydroclimatic extremes and a series of post-glacial climate system reorganizations for the interior region of northwest Canada. Authigenic calcite δ 18 O values range from −16‰ to −21‰ and are presently similar to modern lake water and annual precipitation values. Ostracod δ 18 O record near identical trends with calcite, offset by +1.7 ± 0.6‰. At 11 ka BP (kaBP = thousands of years before 1950), higher δ 18 O values reflect decreased precipitation−evaporation (P−E) balance from residual ice sheet influences on moisture availability. A trend to lower δ 18 O values until ∼8 ka BP reflects a shift to wetter conditions, and reorganization of atmospheric circulation. The last millennium and modern era are relatively dry, though not as dry as the early Holocene extreme. North Pacific climate dynamics remained an important driver of P−E balance in northwest Canada throughout the Holocene.

Yukon Territory↗
USGS2016

Deciduous trees are a large and overlooked sink for snowmelt water in the boreal forest

The terrestrial water cycle contains large uncertainties that impact our understanding of water budgets and climate dynamics. Water storage is a key uncertainty in the boreal water budget, with tree water storage often ignored. The goal of this study is to quantify tree water content during the snowmelt and growing season periods for Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests. Deciduous trees reached saturation between snowmelt and leaf-out, taking up 21–25% of the available snowmelt water, while coniferous trees removed <1%. We found that deciduous trees removed 17.8–20.9 billion m 3 of snowmelt water, which is equivalent to 8.7–10.2% of the Yukon River’s annual discharge. Deciduous trees transpired 2–12% (0.4–2.2 billion m 3 ) of the absorbed snowmelt water immediately after leaf-out, increasing favorable conditions for atmospheric convection, and an additional 10–30% (2.0–5.2 billion m 3 ) between leaf-out and mid-summer. By 2100, boreal deciduous tree area is expected to increase by 1–15%, potentially resulting in an additional 0.3–3 billion m 3 of snowmelt water removed from the soil per year. This study is the first to show that deciduous tree water uptake of snowmelt water represents a large but overlooked aspect of the water balance in boreal watersheds.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS1999

Stable isotopes and mineral resource investigations in the United States

The elements oxygen, hydrogen, sulfur, and carbon are important constituents of hydrothermal ore-forming systems and the weathering processes of mineral deposits in the surficial environment. They also play key roles in volcanic activity, ecosystem dynamics, climate change, and hydrologic and atmospheric processes. Therefore, study of the stable isotopes of these elements can provide powerful insights into these processes. This is especially true for ongoing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) projects in the Eastern United States that are concerned with the origins of base (copper, lead, and zinc) and precious (gold and silver) metal deposits in the Carolina slate belt and northern Maine and with the environmental effects of weathering of mineral deposits (fig. 1).

Information Handout↗
USGS2004

Climate data by elevation in the Great Smoky Mountains: a database and graphical displays for 1947 - 1950 with comparison to long-term data

A climate data set is presented for four sites spanning the elevation gradient in the Great Smoky Mountains from Gatlinburg to Clingmans Dome. Monthly mean values for cloud cover, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture are included. Stephens (1969) is the source of all summarized mean monthly data. Values are the averages of four years (1947-1950) with moderate to high precipitation. Graphical displays show strong climatic patterns of variation among seasons and elevations. The upper stations had lower temperatures and higher precipitation totals; however, temperature lapse rates and variation in vapor pressure deficits decreased at upper elevations. To examine how well the four-year sample represents the long-term climate, temperature and precipitation for the Gatlinburg (1460 ft elevation at park headquarters) station were compared between the years in the sample and the years in the full record from 1928 to 2003. Trends related to season and elevation are consistent with earlier studies and provide a basis for interpretation of climate dynamics in the southern Appalachian Mountains.

Data Series↗
USGS2008

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008­­­–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota↗
USGS2015

Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

A new option to write and read antecedent conditions (also referred to as initial conditions) has been developed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) numerical, hydrologic simulation code. GSFLOW is an integration of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and USGS Modular Groundwater-Flow Model (MODFLOW), and provides three simulation modes: MODFLOW-only, PRMS-only, and GSFLOW (or coupled). The new capability, referred to as the restart option, can be used for all three simulation modes, such that the results from a pair (or set) of spin-up and restart simulations are nearly identical to results produced from a continuous simulation for the same time period. The restart option writes all results to files at the end of a spin-up simulation that are required to initialize a subsequent restart simulation. Previous versions of GSFLOW have had some capability to save model results for use as antecedent condiitions in subsequent simulations; however, the existing capabilities were not comprehensive or easy to use. The new restart option supersedes the previous methods. The restart option was developed in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service as part of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Partnership. The primary focus for the development of the restart option was to support medium-range (7- to 14-day) forecasts of low streamflow conditions made by the National Weather Service for critical water-supply basins in which groundwater plays an important role. The spin-up simulation should be run for a sufficient length of time necessary to establish antecedent conditions throughout a model domain. Each GSFLOW application can require different lengths of time to account for the hydrologic stresses to propagate through a coupled groundwater and surface-water system. Typically, groundwater hydrologic processes require many years to come into equilibrium with dynamic climate and other forcing (or stress) data, such as precipitation and well pumping, whereas runoff-dominated surface-water processes respond relatively quickly. Use of a spin-up simulation can substantially reduce execution-time requirements for applications where the time period of interest is small compared to the time for hydrologic memory; thus, use of the restart option can be an efficient strategy for forecast and calibration simulations that require multiple simulations starting from the same day.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2020

Post-fire vegetation response in a repeatedly burned low-elevation sagebrush steppe protected area provides insights about resilience and invasion resistance

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems are threatened by human land-use legacies, biological invasions, and altered fire and climate dynamics. Steppe protected areas are therefore of heightened conservation importance but are few and vulnerable to the same impacts broadly affecting sagebrush steppe. To address this problem, sagebrush steppe conservation science is increasingly emphasizing a focus on resilience to fire and resistance to non-native annual grass invasion as a decision framework. It is well-established that the positive feedback loop between fire and annual grass invasion is the driving process of most contemporary steppe degradation. We use a newly developed ordinal zero-augmented beta regression model fit to large-sample vegetation monitoring data from John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, USA, spanning 7 years to evaluate fire responses of two native perennial foundation bunchgrasses and two non-native invasive annual grasses in a repeatedly burned, historically grazed, and inherently low-resilient protected area. We structured our model hierarchically to support inferences about variation among ecological site types and over time after also accounting for growing-season water deficit, fine-scale topographic variation, and burn severity. We use a state-and-transition conceptual diagram and abundances of plants listed in ecological site reference conditions to formalize our hypothesis of fire-accelerated transition to ecologically novel annual grassland. Notably, big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) and other woody species were entirely removed by fire. The two perennial grasses, bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ) and Thurber's needlegrass ( Achnatherum thurberianum ) exhibited fire resiliency, with no apparent trend after fire. The two annual grasses, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae ), increased in response to burn severity, most notably medusahead. Surprisingly, we found no variation in grass cover among ecological sites, suggesting fire-driven homogenization as shrubs were removed and annual grasses became dominant. We found contrasting responses among all four grass species along gradients of topography and water deficit, informative to protected-area conservation strategies. The fine-grained influence of topography was particularly important to variation in cover among species and provides a foothold for conservation in low-resilient, aridic steppe. Broadly, our study demonstrates how to operationalize resilience and resistance concepts for protected areas by integrating empirical data with conceptual and statistical models.

Oregon↗
USGS2015

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO 2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO 2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2009

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 &deg;C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 &deg;C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2005

Assessment of a model of forest dynamics under contrasting climate and disturbance regimes in the Pacific Northwest [FORCLIM]

An individual-based model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) was tested for its ability to simulate forest composition and structure in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Simulation results across gradients of climate and disturbance were compared to forest survey data from several vegetation zones in western Oregon. Modelled patterns of tree species composition, total basal area and stand height across climate gradients matched those in the forest survey data. However, the density of small stems (<50 cm DBH) was underestimated by the model. Thus actual size-class structure and other density-based parameters of stand structure were not simulated with high accuracy. The addition of partial-stand disturbances at moderate frequencies (<0.01 yr-1) often improved agreement between simulated and actual results. Strengths and weaknesses of the FORCLIM model in simulating forest dynamics and structure in the Pacific Northwest are discussed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Stochastic within-host dynamics and climate-sensitive traits generate predictable patterns of variation in disease outcomes

Understanding how climatic variables impact host-pathogen relationships in temperature-sensitive ectothermic host organisms is crucial under global change. Few studies have explored how temperature gradients generate inter-individual variation in epidemiological traits like host susceptibility or pathogen replication. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore a novel hypothesis: stochastic within-host dynamics and simulated thermal mismatches between host and pathogen traits generate predictable variation in infection outcomes among hosts and across thermal gradients. Our model demonstrates that varying trait thermal optima in host immunity and pathogen replication, and stochastic within-host processes produced variation in infection outcomes. Variability was low when temperatures strongly favored host or pathogen traits, but high and diverse when their performance was similar across a broad thermal range. In contrast, when trait performance was equal across all temperatures (no mismatch) variability remained low at all temperatures. Further, the magnitude of variation, quantified by entropy, exhibited predictable patterns depending on host-pathogen thermal mismatches. We conclude that interactions between trait thermal mismatches and within-host stochasticity provide a theoretical framework to improve ectotherm disease models under climate change, providing a valuable tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on epizootic or epidemic dynamics, particularly in vulnerable marine ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗
USGS2020

Coarse sediment dynamics in a large glaciated river system: Holocene history and storage dynamics dictate contemporary climate sensitivity

The gravel-bedded White River drains a 1279 km 2 basin in Washington State, with lowlands sculpted by continental glaciation and headwaters on an actively glaciated stratovolcano. Chronic aggradation along an alluvial fan near the river’s mouth has progressively reduced flood conveyance. In order to better understand how forecasted climate change may influence coarse sediment delivery and aggradation rates in this lowland depositional setting, we assessed the contemporary delivery and routing of coarse sediment through the watershed; this assessment was based on a rich set of topographic, sedimentologic, and hydrologic data from the past century, with a focus on repeat high-resolution topographic surveys from the past decade. We found that most of the lower river’s contemporary bed-load flux originates from persistent erosion of alluvial deposits in the lower watershed. This erosion is a response to a drop in local base level caused by a major avulsion across the fan in 1906 and then augmented by subsequent dredging. The 1906 avulsion and modern disequilibrium valley profiles reflect landscape conditioning by continental glaciation and a massive mid-Holocene lahar. In the proglacial headwaters, infrequent large sediment pulses have accomplished most of the observed coarse sediment export, with exported material blanketing downstream valley floors; during typical floods, transported bed material is largely sourced from erosion of these valley floor deposits. Throughout the watershed, we observe decadal-scale coarse sediment dynamics strongly related to the filling or emptying of valley-scale sediment storage over 10 2 −10 4 yr time scales, often in response to major disturbances that either emplace large deposits or influence their redistribution. Paraglacial responses in large watersheds are suggested to be inherently complicated and punctuated as a result of internal landform interactions and stochastic/threshold-dependent events. We argue, in combination, that Holocene disturbance, storage dynamics, and human flow modification make coarse sediment fluxes in the lower White River relatively insensitive to decadal climate variability. Results highlight the degree to which river sensitivity to contemporary disturbance, climatic or otherwise, may be contingent on local and idiosyncratic watershed histories, underscoring the need to unpack those histories while demonstrating the utility of watershed-scale high-resolution topography toward that end.

Washington↗
USGS1997

Climate and ocean dynamics and the lead isotopic records in Pacific ferromanganese crusts

As hydrogenous iron-manganese crusts grow, at rates of millimeters per million years, they record changes in the lead isotopic composition of ambient seawater. Time-resolved lead isotopic data for cut slabs of two central Pacific iron-manganese crusts that have been growing since about 50 million years ago were measured in situ by laser ablation, multiple-collector, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The lead isotopic compositions have remained remarkably uniform over the past 30 million years, but the record of small variations corresponds with other paleoceanographic indicators of climate change, including weathering and glaciation. This implies that despite the short residence time of lead in the oceans, global mechanisms may influence lead isotopic compositions in the central Pacific, far from continental inputs, because of changes in weathering, ocean circulation, and degree of mixing. Thus lead isotopic data could be used to probe climate-driven changes in ocean circulation through time.

Science↗