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Assessment of peak discharge uncertainty in the American River basin, California

Flood-discharge data, current-meter and indirect measurements, and stage-discharge relations, the oldest of which dates to the early 1900's, were used to estimate the uncertainty about annual flood peaks in or near the American River Basin at 20 stream-gaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The study estimates that, in the study area, most flood peaks that were determined from current-meter measurements have an uncertainty of about plus or minus 3 percent, whereas the peaks that were determined from indirect measurements have an uncertainty ranging from plus or minus 10 to plus or minus 70 percent. The study also determined that the stage-discharge relations that have been developed for most of the sites in the American River Basin are correct.

Open-File Report

Loss of coastal islands along Florida’s Big Bend region: Implications for breeding American oystercatchers

Many coastal-dependent species have undergone large-scale population declines due to impacts from habitat loss, including American oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ). Islands along the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast provide important nesting habitat for oystercatchers, but reproductive success here is low and habitat degradation and loss are a major concern. To determine rates and characteristics of habitat loss, we quantified changes in island sizes within two major breeding areas of the Big Bend: the Barge Canal spoil islands and natural islands at Cedar Key. We digitized aerial photographs from the past ~ 40 years, measured area and shoreline retreat of nesting islands, and identified trends over time by fitting linear mixed effects models. The total area of the ten Barge Canal spoil islands decreased by 55% between 1979 and 2016. At Cedar Key, the total area of the six islands measured decreased by 39% between 1974 and 2016, 85% of which occurred after 1995, indicating an increase in erosion rates correlated with oyster reef declines. Changes in available nesting habitat varied between the Barge Canal and Cedar Key islands due to differences in physical attributes; however, all islands significantly decreased in size over time. Given the long life and high site fidelity of American oystercatchers, these islands may currently be acting as an ecological trap for this species. Climate change, sea-level rise, and loss of oyster reefs are likely to continue to drive oystercatcher habitat loss throughout their range; thus, creation and restoration of oyster reefs and nesting islands will become increasingly important.

Florida

Constructed value of information with iterative scoring and parametric uncertainty to identify management-relevant research priorities for a declining raptor species

Constructed value of information (CVoI) is an expert elicitation decision-analytic tool used to prioritize sources of uncertainty based on their potential to improve decision outcomes if resolved. Despite increased application of CVoI, the robustness of CVoI prioritization of sources of uncertainty relative to differences in expert elicitation and scoring methods has not been evaluated. We engaged a group of species experts in a decision-analytic process to elicit uncertainties, framed as alternative hypotheses, about current population declines of the American kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) in the United States. Participants scored 13 hypotheses across 3 CVoI criteria, which are defined as constructed scales. Rather than experts selecting a single score per criterion, we used a likelihood point method to incorporate parametric uncertainty in the scoring process, in which experts were given 100 points to distribute across possible score categories within the criterion-specific constructed scale. Experts provided scores over 2 scoring rounds, with an opportunity to review and discuss initial scores between rounds. We used a Shannon entropy calculation to quantify how evenly participants allotted their points. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of our prioritization results relative to a scoring method in which participants selected a single score category for each criterion. Participants often spread their points across 2 adjacent scores, reflecting parametric uncertainty. For one third of the hypothesis-scoring round combinations, the prioritization results differed in approximately 50% of simulations. The highest scoring hypotheses related to how the use of artificial versus natural nest cavities affects fecundity or survival, whether winter roosting sites are a limiting factor for population growth, and whether gamebird habitat management may benefit kestrel populations. Our CVoI prioritization framework can be used to develop collaborative research that is directly relevant to a management decision and is an advance in eliciting more representative expert beliefs.

Conservation Biology

From salmon to shad: Shifting sources of marine-derived nutrients in the Columbia River Basin

Like Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), nonnative American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) have the potential to convey large quantities of nutrients between the Pacific Ocean and freshwater spawning areas in the Columbia River Basin (CRB). American shad are now the most numerous anadromous fish in the CRB, yet the magnitude of the resulting nutrient flux owing to the shift from salmon to shad is unknown. Nutrient flux models revealed that American shad conveyed over 15,000 kg of nitrogen (N) and 3,000 kg of phosphorus (P) annually to John Day Reservoir, the largest mainstem reservoir in the lower Columbia River. Shad were net importers of N, with juveniles and postspawners exporting just 31% of the N imported by adults. Shad were usually net importers of P, with juveniles and postspawners exporting 46% of the P imported by adults on average. American shad contributed <0.2% of the total annual P load into John Day Reservoir, but during June when most adult shad are migrating into John Day Reservoir, they contributed as much as 2.0% of the P load. Nutrient inputs by American shad were similar to current but far less than historical inputs of Pacific salmon owing to their smaller size. Given the relatively high background P levels and low retention times in lower Columbia River reservoirs, it is unlikely that shad marine-derived nutrients affect nutrient balances or food web productivity through autotrophic pathways. However, a better understanding of shad spawning aggregations in the CRB is needed.

Columbia River, John Day Reservoir

Who invented the mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus )? On the authorship of the fraudulent 1812 journal of Charles Le Raye

The captivity journal of Charles Le Raye was first published in 1812 as a chapter in A topographical description of the state of Ohio, Indiana Territory, and Louisiana , a volume authored anonymously by a late officer in the U. S. Army. Le Raye was purported to be a French Canadian fur trader who, as a captive of the Sioux, had travelled across broad portions of the Missouri and Yellowstone river drainages a few years before the Lewis and Clark expedition (1804-1806), and his account of the land, its people, and its natural resources was relied upon as a primary source by generations of natural historians, geographers, and ethnographers. Based directly on descriptions of animals in the published journal, the naturalist Constantine S. Rafinesque named seven new species of North American mammals, including what are currently recognized as the mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and a Great Plains subspecies of white-tailed deer ( O. virginianus macrourus ). Unfortunately, Le Raye never existed, and historical, geographical, and ethnographical evidence indicates that the journal is fraudulent. Determining the author of this work is relevant to identifying the sources used to construct it, which may help us to understand the real animals upon which Rafinesque's species are based. Traditionally, authorship of the volume was attributed to Jervis Cutler, but his role in composing the fraudulent Le Raye journal has been called into question. In this paper, I present additional evidence supporting the hypothesis that Jervis Cutler bears primary responsibility for the Le Raye journal and that he had the background, opportunity, and potential motive to author it.

Archives of Natural History

In search of the Abrams post office, Trinity County

An understanding of earth history depends in part on stratigraphy, a division of geology in which the distinctive features of natural units or formations of layered rocks are studied and described and names are assigned to them. The procedures for describing and naming rock units in a uniform way are incorporated in documents known as stratigraphic codes. The North American Stratigraphic Code (1983) is currently used by most geologists in the United States when formation names are selected. Rock unit names consist of a geographic name, generally taken from a natural feature near the locality where the unit was first described, followed by a descriptive feature, usually the dominant rock type in the unit. Although the procedure for naming a rock unit seems straightforward, stratigraphic nomenclature can lead to confusion when the principles outlined in the stratigraphic code are ignored or incorrectly applied. This paper traces the naming of the Abrams Mica Schist, one of the major units of the northern California Klamath Mountains. It describes how uncertainty about the location of the geographic feature after which the unit was named has led to conflicting terminology. The search revealed some interesting history of the early days of mining in the Coffee Creek region of the Trinity Alps in Trinity County.

California Geology

Upper thermal tolerance and heat shock protein response of juvenile American shad (Alosa sapidissima)

Juvenile American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) experience a wide range of temperatures in rivers before migrating to the ocean. Temperatures in these freshwater environments can vary greatly spatially, seasonally, year-to-year, and can be impacted by anthropogenic factors such as power plant discharge or climate change. Currently, there is uncertainty concerning juvenile American shad thermal tolerance due to a lack of a well-controlled study. Here, we report results of laboratory experiments to establish the upper thermal tolerance and heat shock protein response of juvenile American shad exposed to gradually increasing temperatures. Upper thermal tolerance was determined to be 35 °C (median; range = 34–36 °C) when fish were acclimated to 25 °C and temperatures were raised 1 °C day −1 . Heat shock protein response was indicated by changes in branchial mRNA abundance of the inducible heat shock protein 90 alpha ( hsp90α ), which was significantly elevated (more than 5-fold increase) at 30 °C, and highest in fish that had reached their upper thermal maximum between 34 and 36 °C. Our findings indicate a higher upper thermal tolerance than previously reported for juvenile American shad, and an onset temperature of hsp90α induction at 30 °C, a temperature juvenile American shad commonly experience during summer months.

Estuaries and Coasts

The role of sand lances (Ammodytes sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic Ecosystem: A synthesis of current knowledge with implications for conservation and management

The American sand lance ( Ammodytes americanus , Ammodytidae) and the Northern sand lance ( A. dubius , Ammodytidae) are small forage fishes that play an important functional role in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). The NWA is a highly dynamic ecosystem currently facing increased risks from climate change, fishing and energy development. We need a better understanding of the biology, population dynamics and ecosystem role of Ammodytes to inform relevant management, climate adaptation and conservation efforts. To meet this need, we synthesized available data on the (a) life history, behaviour and distribution; (b) trophic ecology; (c) threats and vulnerabilities; and (d) ecosystem services role of Ammodytes in the NWA. Overall, 72 regional predators including 45 species of fishes, two squids, 16 seabirds and nine marine mammals were found to consume Ammodytes . Priority research needs identified during this effort include basic information on the patterns and drivers in abundance and distribution of Ammodytes , improved assessments of reproductive biology schedules and investigations of regional sensitivity and resilience to climate change, fishing and habitat disturbance. Food web studies are also needed to evaluate trophic linkages and to assess the consequences of inconsistent zooplankton prey and predator fields on energy flow within the NWA ecosystem. Synthesis results represent the first comprehensive assessment of Ammodytes in the NWA and are intended to inform new research and support regional ecosystem‐based management approaches.

Northwest Atlantic

Circulating fat-soluble vitamin concentrations and nutrient composition of aquatic prey eaten by American oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ) in the southeastern United States

The American oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus palliatus ) is currently listed as a species of high concern by the United States Shorebird Conservation Plan. Because nutritional status directly impacts overall health and reproduction of individuals and populations, adequate management of a wildlife population requires intimate knowledge of a species' diet and nutrient requirements. Fat-soluble vitamin concentrations in blood plasma obtained from American oystercatchers and proximate, vitamin, and mineral composition of various oystercatcher prey species were determined as baseline data to assess nutritional status and nutrient supply. Bird and prey species samples were collected from the Cape Romain region, South Carolina, USA, and the Altamaha River delta islands, Georgia, USA, where breeding populations appear relatively stable in recent years. Vitamin A levels in blood samples were higher than ranges reported as normal for domestic avian species, and vitamin D concentrations were lower than anticipated based on values observed in poultry. Vitamin E levels were within ranges previously reported for avian groups with broadly similar feeding niches such as herons, gulls, and terns (eg, aquatic/estuarine/marine). Prey species (oysters, mussels, clams, blood arks [ Anadara ovalis ], whelks [ Busycon carica ], false angel wings [ Petricola pholadiformis ]) were similar in water content to vertebrate prey, moderate to high in protein, and moderate to low in crude fat. Ash and macronutrient concentrations in prey species were high compared with requirements of carnivores or avian species. Prey items analyzed appear to meet nutritional requirements for oystercatchers, as estimated by extrapolation from domestic carnivores and poultry species; excesses, imbalances, and toxicities&mdash;particularly of minerals and fat-soluble vitamins&mdash;may warrant further investigation.

Georgia, South Carolina

Comparative assessment of laboratory-derived thermal maxima of Gila trout (oncorhynchus Gilae) with current stream temperatures

Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae ) represent an iconic species of the American Southwest. The salmonid has survived extensive logging, livestock grazing, and mining, and is currently threatened by climate change, wildfire, and extended drought. Long-term conservation and recovery of the species and its unique lineages rely on stocking and translocation into historically inhabited streams. Thus, the fish's thermal tolerance is essential in determining suitable habitat and potential vulnerability to a warming climate. We compared a laboratory-derived temperature metric, critical thermal maximum (CTMax), in hatchery-reared Gila trout from three lineages (Main Diamond, South Diamond, and Whiskey Creek) to determine if CTMax differed among the lineages. The average initial (28.9°C, SD = 0.81°C) and final (29.2°C, SD = 0.74°C) temperature at loss of righting responses did not differ across the lineages. We compared the CTMax values with stream temperatures across three drainages representative of extant Gila trout populations from spring 2015 to fall 2018. The East Fork Gila River drainage was represented by more extreme stream temperatures. The maximum daily maximum temperature (i.e., single highest temperature) varied from 24.1 to 33.4°C, exceeding CTMax in four of the five streams. The maximum daily temperature varied from 12.1 to 28.6°C, and the mean weekly maximum temperature varied from 19.9 to 31.1°C. Mean weekly maximum temperature in Lower Diamond Creek exceeded CTMax on 11 occasions. Stream temperatures were cooler within the Middle and the West Fork Gila River drainages and did not exceed CTMax. Intermittency loggers within the East Fork Gila River drainage, which supports Main Diamond and South Diamond lineages of Gila trout, recorded over 300 days of intermittency during a drought. Continued long-term monitoring of stream temperature and comparison with CTMax of Gila trout could assist with decisions of which streams in the Gila Drainage are suitable for Gila trout recovery, stocking, and translocation.

New Mexico

Case Study 4: NABat acoustic monitoring allows inferences about bat populations at multiple scales

North American bats face unprecedented risks from continuing and emerging threats including white-nose syndrome, wind energy development, and habitat loss. Many species of bats are thought to be recently experiencing unparalleled population declines unlike any previously observed (O’Shea et al. 2016). The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) was conceived to better understand the true ecological consequences of these large-scale population reductions (Loeb et al. 2015). NABat aims is to improve the state of conservation science for the 47 species of bats shared by Canada, United States, and Mexico. To meet this objective, NABat offers standardize protocols and a unifying sample design facilitating a multi-agency, multinational, collaborative monitoring effort. A key element of NABat is cross-boundary partner coordination and sharing of limited resources for the collection of bat echolocation data. Here we provide three compelling examples of how NABat provides a convenient framework for using acoustic data to assess the potential impacts of current and future threats to North American bats across multiple spatial scales.

Oregon

Population trajectory of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in eastern Washington

Anecdotal evidence suggests that burrowing owls have declined in Washington. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife is currently conducting a status review for burrowing owls which will help determine whether they should be listed as threatened or endangered in the state. To provide insights into the current status of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia), we analyzed data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey using two analytical approaches to determine their current population trajectory in eastern Washington. We used a one-sample t-test to examine whether trend estimates across all BBS routes in Washington differed from zero. We also used a mixed model analysis to estimate the rate of decline in number of burrowing owls detected between 1968 and 2005. The slope in number of burrowing owls detected was negative for 12 of the 16 BBS routes in Washington that have detected burrowing owls. Numbers of breeding burrowing owls detected in eastern Washington declined at a rate of 1.5% annually. We suggest that all BBS routes that have detected burrowing owls in past years in eastern Washington be surveyed annually and additional surveys conducted to track population trends of burrowing owls at finer spatial scales in eastern Washington. In the meantime, land management and regulatory agencies should ensure that publicly managed areas with breeding burrowing owls are not degraded and should implement education and outreach programs to promote protection of privately owned areas with breeding owls.

Northwest Science

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Scientific Reports

Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change

Many organisms leave evidence of their former occurrence, such as scat, abandoned burrows, middens, ancient eDNA or fossils, which indicate areas from which a species has since disappeared. However, combining this evidence with contemporary occurrences within a single modeling framework remains challenging. Traditional binary species-distribution modeling reduces occurrence to two temporally coarse states (present/absent), so thus cannot leverage the information inherent in temporal sequences of evidence of past occurrence. In contrast, ordinal modeling can use the natural time-varying order of states (e.g. never occupied versus previously occupied versus currently occupied) to provide greater insights into range shifts. We demonstrate the power of ordinal modeling for identifying the major influences of biogeographic and climatic variables on current and past occupancy of the American pika Ochotona princeps , a climate-sensitive mammal. Sampling over five years across the species' southernmost, warm-edge range limit, we tested the effects of these variables at 570 habitat patches where occurrence was classified either as binary or ordinal. The two analyses produced different top models and predictors – ordinal modeling highlighted chronic cold as the most-important predictor of occurrence, whereas binary modeling indicated primacy of average summer-long temperatures. Colder wintertime temperatures were associated in ordinal models with higher likelihood of occurrence, which we hypothesize reflect longer retention of insulative and meltwater-provisioning snowpacks. Our binary results mirrored those of other past pika investigations employing binary analysis, wherein warmer temperatures decrease likelihood of occurrence. Because both ordinal- and binary-analysis top models included climatic and biogeographic factors, results constitute important considerations for climate-adaptation planning. Cross-time evidences of species occurrences remain underutilized for assessing responses to climate change. Compared to multi-state occupancy modeling, which presumes all states occur in the same time period, ordinal models enable use of historical evidence of species' occurrence to identify factors driving species' distributions more finely across time.

New Mexico

The San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay region, California: Structure and kinematics of a Young plate boundary

Recently acquired high-resolution aeromagnetic data delineate offset and/or truncated magnetic rock bodies of the Franciscan Complex that define the location and structure of, and total offset across, the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay region. Two distinctive magnetic anomalies caused by ultramafic rocks and metabasalts east of, and truncated at, the San Andreas fault have clear counterparts west of the fault that indicate a total right-lateral offset of only 22 km on the Peninsula segment, the active strand that ruptured in 1906. The location of the Peninsula segment is well defined magnetically on the northern peninsula where it goes offshore, and can be traced along strike an additional ~6 km to the northwest. Just offshore from Lake Merced, the inferred fault trace steps right (northeast) 3 km onto a nearly parallel strand that can be traced magnetically northwest more than 20 km as the linear northeast edge of a magnetic block bounded by the San Andreas fault, the Pilarcitos fault, and the San Gregorio-Hosgri fault zone. This right-stepping strand, the Golden Gate segment, joins the eastern mapped trace of the San Andreas fault at Bolinas Lagoon and projects back onshore to the southeast near Lake Merced. Inversion of detailed gravity data on the San Francisco Peninsula reveals a 3 km wide basin situated between the two strands of the San Andreas fault, floored by Franciscan basement and filled with Plio-Quaternary sedimentary deposits of the Merced and Colma formations. The basin, ~1 km deep at the coast, narrows and becomes thinner to the southeast along the fault over a distance of ~12 km. The length, width, and location of the basin between the two strands are consistent with a pull-apart basin formed behind the right step in the right-lateral strike-slip San Andreas fault system and currently moving southeast with the North American plate. Slight nonparallelism of the two strands bounding the basin (implying a small component of convergence with continued strike-slip movement) may explain the progressive narrowing of the basin to the southeast and the puzzling recent uplift of the Merced Formation in a predominantly extensional (pull-apart basin) setting. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have nucleated within the step-over region, and the step-over places a strand of the San Andreas fault 3 km closer to downtown San Francisco than previously thought.

International Geology Review

Shorebirds in western North America: Late 1800s to late 1900s

Only anecdotal information is available to assess whether populations of the 47 shorebird species that breed or winter west of the Rocky Mountains changed in size or distribution during the past century. Unregulated hunting from 1870 to 1927 reduced populations of several species, at least temporarily, and was a factor in bringing the Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ) close to extinction. Large scale transformation of native grasslands and wetlands for agriculture and other purposes resulted in population declines and nesting range contractions of several temperate-zone breeders. In general, upland species were affected more than wetland species, breeding ranges contracted westward, and alteration of breeding habitat was the factor most responsible for range contractions and population declines. A ranking system assessing shorebird susceptibility to habitat alteration also predicted temperate breeders to be among the most vulnerable species to environmental change. The few estimates for current population sizes of western North American shorebirds range from fewer than 50 Eskimo Curlews to a few million Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ), the most abundant species. Concentrations of at least 1000 shorebirds occur on migration at over 120 western North American sites and of 100,000 to 1,000,000 shorebirds at 18 sites. Whether populations are limited by conditions on breeding, wintering or migration ranges is unknown for most species. Expansion of ongoing programs coupled with economical new census efforts could be useful for monitoring the majority of western North American shorebirds during the next century.

Studies in Avian Biology

Seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels on the Southern High Plains of Texas

American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) populations are generally declining across the species' North American distribution but the population in the Southern High Plains region currently appears to be stable. Historical evidence suggests the region formerly had a low abundance of kestrels, and that their current numbers are due to landscape changes associated with European settlement. We conducted monthly surveys for American Kestrels across 2 yr to estimate seasonal densities and identify land cover associations in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We found an overall estimated density of 0.99 birds/km 2 (95% CI = 0.406, 1.582) across the 2-yr period, with seasonal estimated densities highest in autumn and winter (0.92–2.53/ km 2 ), and lowest in spring (0.49–0.67/km 2 ). Whereas other studies have found that temperature influenced detection of wintering kestrels, we found an interaction of drought conditions and snow most strongly influenced the number of kestrels in our study area. Kestrels largely used land cover types in proportion to availability but there was some evidence of seasonal shifts. Generally, they tended to avoid cotton fields and sometimes selected for areas with woodlots, abandoned or occupied houses, and barns, all of which likely provided nesting and roosting opportunities. Our study provides the first contemporary assessment of seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels in the Southern High Plains, where their presence and abundance has been unintentionally facilitated by landscape changes following settlement. We provide a baseline for population monitoring and studies assessing response to additional landscape changes (e.g., development of wind energy facilities) and a changing climate.

Journal of Raptor Research