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USGS2019

Volcanic ash resuspension from the Katmai Region

Volcanic ash is not only a hazard during an eruptive event; in strong winds, previously deposited loose volcanic ash can be picked up and reworked into dust clouds. Resuspension and transport of fine-grained volcanic ash from Katmai National Park and Preserve, Alaska has been observed and documented many times over the past several decades and has likely been occurring throughout the time interval since the 1912 Novarupta-Katmai eruption (Hadley et al. 2004). This eruption, the largest in the world during the 20th Century, produced approximately 4 cubic miles (17 cubic km) of ash deposits and 2.6 cubic miles (11 cubic km) of pyroclastic material that filled nearby valleys, creating what is today known as the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS; Fierstein and Hildreth 1992). Ash in this valley is up to 660 feet (200 m) thick and the valley remains almost entirely free of vegetation (Figure 1).

Alaska↗
USGS2003

Sea otter studies in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve: annual report 2002

Since 1995, the number of sea otters in Glacier Bay proper has increased from around 5 to more than 1200. Sea otter distribution is mostly limited to the Lower Bay, south of Sandy Cove, and is not continuous within that area. Concentrations occur in the vicinity of Sita Reef and Boulder Island and between Pt. Carolus and Rush Pt. on the west side of the Bay, although there have been occasional sightings north of Sandy Cove (Figure 1). Large portions of the Bay remain unoccupied by sea otters, but recolonization is occurring rapidly. Most prey recovered by sea otters in Glacier Bay are ecologically, commercially, or socially important species. In 2002 sea otter diet consisted of 35% clam, 26% mussel, 3% crab, 3.0% snail, 2% starfish, 11% urchins, 2% other, and 20% unidentified. Dominant clam species include the butter clam, Saxidomus gigantea , the Greenland cockle, Serripes groenlandicus , and the littleneck clam, Protothaca staminea . Urchins are primarily green urchins, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis , and the mussel is Modiolus modiolus . Crabs observed in 2002 include the Dungeness, Cancer magister , the kelp crab Pugettia gracilis , and the helmet crab, Telmessus cherigonus . Although we characterize diet at broad geographic scales, we have previously found diet to vary between sites separated by as little as several hundred meters. Dietary variation among and within sites can reflect differences in prey availability as well as individual specialization. We estimated species composition, density, biomass, and sizes of subtidal clams, urchins, and mussels at 13 sites in Glacier Bay and 5 sites in nearby Port Althorp, where sea otters have been present for at least 20 years. All sites were selected based on the presence of abundant clam siphons and the absence of sea otters (Glacier Bay) or abundant shell litter and the presence of sea otters (Port Althorp). Glacier Bay sites were selected to achieve a broad geographic sample of dense subtidal clam beds within Glacier Bay prior to occupation and foraging by sea otters. Port Althorp sites were chosen to achieve a representative sample of subtidal clam beds already under prolonged foraging pressure by sea otters. There was no direct evidence of otter foraging at any of our Glacier Bay sampling sites. In Glacier Bay, we sampled 15,338 bivalves (average of 1,180/site) representing 14 species of clam, 2 species of mussel, and a single scallop and we sampled 6,917 urchins (average of 513/site). In Port Althorp, we sampled 1,034 bivalves (average of 207/site) representing 14 species of clam. We found only 5 urchins, all S. droebachiensis . Mean densities and biomass of all subtidal clams were significantly greater in Glacier Bay (59.2 and 99/0.25m 2 compared to Port Althorp (10.3 and 5.8/0.25m 2 (p<0.002 for both). Our contrasts of subtidal clam populations between Glacier Bay and Port Althorp suggest that clam densities will likely decline by about a factor of six and that clam biomass estimates will decline by more than a factor of ten. Numerically dominant species of clams, P. staminea , S. gigantea , Macoma sp. and Mya sp. were all significantly greater in density and biomass in Glacier Bay, while C. nutalli density was low but significantly higher in Port Althorp. Subtidal clam species diversity was significantly greater in Port Althorp compared to Glacier Bay, although this may simply reflect habitat differences. Sea urchin densities were high in Glacier Bay, while in Port Althorp urchins were virtually absent. Sea otters are now well established in limited areas of the lower portions of Glacier Bay. It is likely that distribution and numbers of sea otters will continue to increase in Glacier Bay in the near future. Glacier Bay supports large and diverse populations of clams that are largely unexploited by sea otters at present. It is predictable that the density and sizes of clam populations will decline in response to otter predation. This will result in fewer opportunities for human harvest, but will also trigger ecosystem level changes, as prey for other predators, such as octopus, sea stars, fishes, birds and mammals are modified. Sea otters will also modify benthic habitats through excavation of sediments required to extract burrowing infauna such as clams. Effects of sediment disturbance by foraging sea otters are not understood. Glacier Bay also supports large populations of other preferred sea otter prey, such as king ( Paralithodes sp. ), tanner ( Chionoecetes sp. ) and dungeness ( Cancer magister ) crabs and green sea urchins ( S. droebachiensis ). As the colonization of Park waters by sea otters continues, it is also likely that dramatic changes will occur in the species composition, abundance, and size class distribution of many components of the nearshore marine ecosystem. Many of the changes will occur as a direct result of predation by sea otters. Others will result from indirect or cascading effects of sea otter foraging, such as increased kelp production and modified prey availability for other nearshore predators. Without recognizing and quantifying the extent of change initiated by the colonization of Glacier Bay by sea otters, management of nearshore resources will be severely constrained for many decades.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Multi-year, spatially extensive, watershed-scale synoptic stream chemistry and water quality conditions for six permafrost-underlain Arctic watersheds

Repeated sampling of spatially distributed river chemistry can be used to assess the location, scale, and persistence of carbon and nutrient contributions to watershed exports. Here, we provide a comprehensive set of water chemistry measurements and ecohydrological metrics describing the biogeochemical conditions of permafrost-affected Arctic watersheds. These data were collected in watershed-wide synoptic campaigns in six stream networks across northern Alaska. Three watersheds are associated with the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research site at Toolik Field Station (TFS), which were sampled seasonally each June and August from 2016 to 2018. Three watersheds were associated with the National Park Service (NPS) of Alaska and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and were sampled annually from 2015 to 2019. Extensive water chemistry characterization included carbon species, dissolved nutrients, and major ions. The objective of the sampling designs and data acquisition was to characterize terrestrial–aquatic linkages and processing of material in stream networks. The data allow estimation of novel ecohydrological metrics that describe the dominant location, scale, and overall persistence of ecosystem processes in continuous permafrost. These metrics are (1) subcatchment leverage, (2) variance collapse, and (3) spatial persistence. Raw data are available at the National Park Service Integrated Resource Management Applications portal (O'Donnell et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9SBK2DZ ) and within the Environmental Data Initiative (Abbott, 2021, https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/258a44fb9055163dd4dd4371b9dce945 ).

Alaska↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address white-nose syndrome and bat health in 2025–2029

Since its discovery in 2006, the fungal disease known as white-nose syndrome (WNS) has killed millions of bats. Of the 47 bat species native to the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Canada, 12 have been affected by WNS, including 3 endangered species and 1 proposed endangered species. WNS has also been detected in 40 States and 9 Canadian Provinces. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have been critical in identifying the causal fungus for WNS ( Pseudogymnoascus destructans [Pd]), characterizing the effects of WNS, and tracking the spread of Pd in many bat populations in North America. The mission of the USGS WNS and Bat Health Science Team is to deliver integrated science in order to build resiliency into free-ranging bat populations through more effective WNS management, build capacity for bat health science, and enhance bat health information sharing across USGS science centers and cooperative research units as well as with stakeholders. The USGS can play an important role in supporting regional and national capacity building by providing resources and guidance to local, State, and Tribal management entities and by providing tools to enhance disease management. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area’s Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program is the lead Federal program for free-ranging wildlife disease research and surveillance. As of 2024, guided by the science priorities set by the WNS Steering Committee, USGS scientists are engaged in a nationwide response to WNS. This work is done in close coordination with our partners at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Defense, as well as State and Tribal agencies. In addition to conducting WNS research, the USGS is mapping the spread of WNS and coordinating the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) to understand how WNS and other stressors affect the status and trends of native bats across their range. The USGS is supporting the national WNS response through four science goals: (1) provide situational awareness on the health of bat populations; (2) conduct ecological studies of bats along the gradient of disease vulnerability; (3) contribute actionable science to enhance the resiliency of bat populations; and (4) implement an adaptive, holistic approach to bat health.

Circular↗
USGS2014

Report of committee on glaciers, April 1939

The Committee on Glaciers at present is constituted as follows: Harry Fielding Reid—Professor‐Emeritus of Geology, Johns Hopkins University (former member of the International Glacier Commission), 608 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, Maryland William H. Hobbs—Professor‐Emeritus of Geology, University of Michigan (until recently Vice‐ President of the International Glacier Commission, at present associate member), Ann Arbor, Michigan J. E. Church—Professor of Classics, University of Nevada (President of the International Commission of Snow, and Chairman of the Committee on Snow of the Section of Hydrology, American Geophysical Union), Reno, Nevada Colonel Lawrence Martin—Chief of the Division of Maps, Library of Congress, Washington, D. C. Wm. Osgood Field, Jr.—Explorer, 18 West Twelfth Street, New York, N.Y. Earl A. Trager—Chief of the Naturalist Division, National Park Service, Washington, D. C. Glenn L. Parker—District Engineer, Water Resources Branch, United States Geological Survey, 406 Federal Building, Tacoma, Washington Oliver Kehrlein—Chairman, Committee on Glacier Studies, Sierra Club, 1050 Mills Tower, San Francisco, California Kenneth N. Phillips—Associate Hydraulic Engineer, Water Resources Branch, United States Geological Survey, Chairman, Research Committee of the Mazamas, 606 Post‐Office Building, Portland, Oregon William S. Cooper—Professor of Botany, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota Gerald FitzGerald, Senior Topographic Engineer, Alaska Branch, United States Geological Survey, Washington, D.C. Laurence M. Gould, Professor of Geology, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota François E. Matthes, Chairman , Senior Geologist, Section of Glacial Geology, United States Geological Survey (titular member of the International Glacier Commission), Washington, D.C. In 1938, as in previous years, the Committee devoted its energies primarily to the collecting of data on the variations in length and volume of American glaciers, it being felt that the maintenance of a continuous record of these variations is of prime importance, not only to hydrology and glaciology, but, as has become increasingly evident recently, also to climatology, geomorphology, geography, ecology, history, and archaeology. As the time available for the work of the Committee is limited and does not permit covering the entire field of glaciology, it seems best to devote it before all else to this line of research which yields results of value to so many different sciences. Besides, the gathering of data on glacier‐oscillations is not a one‐man job that can be taken up or dropped at convenience from time to time, but is an organized and far‐flung enterprise whose success depends upon the faithful cooperation of many volunteer workers located in different parts of the country. Such an enterprise, once launched, must be kept running or it will disintegrate and the precious enthusiasm of the field‐workers will be lost.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2000

Colonization and development of stream communities across a 200-year gradient in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

In May 1997, physical and biological variables were studied in 16 streams of different ages and contrasting stages of development following glacial recession in Glacier Bay National Park, southeast Alaska. The number of microcrustacean and macroinvertebrate taxa and juvenile fish abundance and diversity were significantly greater in older streams. Microcrustacean diversity was related to the amount of instream wood and percent pool habitat, while the number of macroinvertebrate taxa was related to bed stability, amount of instream wood, and percent pool habitat. The percent contribution of Ephemeroptera to stream benthic communities increased significantly with stream age and the amount of coarse benthic organic matter. Juvenile Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) were dominant in the younger streams, but juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) abundance was greater in older streams associated with increased pool habitat. Upstream lakes significantly influenced channel stability, percent Chironomidae, total macroinvertebrate and meiofaunal abundance, and percent fish cover. Stable isotope analyses indicated nitrogen enrichment from marine sources in macroinvertebrates and juvenile fish in older streams with established salmon runs. The findings are encapsulated in a conceptual summary of stream development that proposes stream assemblages to be determined by direct interactions with the terrestrial, marine, and lake ecosystems.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Gene transcript profiling in sea otters post-Exxon Valdez oil spill: A tool for marine ecosystem health assessment

Using a panel of genes stimulated by oil exposure in a laboratory study, we evaluated gene transcription in blood leukocytes sampled from sea otters captured from 2006–2012 in western Prince William Sound (WPWS), Alaska, 17–23 years after the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). We compared WPWS sea otters to reference populations (not affected by the EVOS) from the Alaska Peninsula (2009), Katmai National Park and Preserve (2009), Clam Lagoon at Adak Island (2012), Kodiak Island (2005) and captive sea otters in aquaria. Statistically, sea otter gene transcript profiles separated into three distinct clusters: Cluster 1, Kodiak and WPWS 2006–2008 (higher relative transcription); Cluster 2, Clam Lagoon and WPWS 2010–2012 (lower relative transcription); and Cluster 3, Alaska Peninsula, Katmai and captive sea otters (intermediate relative transcription). The lower transcription of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), an established biomarker for hydrocarbon exposure, in WPWS 2010–2012 compared to earlier samples from WPWS is consistent with declining hydrocarbon exposure, but the pattern of overall low levels of transcription seen in WPWS 2010–2012 could be related to other factors, such as food limitation, pathogens or injury, and may indicate an inability to mount effective responses to stressors. Decreased transcriptional response across the entire gene panel precludes the evaluation of whether or not individual sea otters show signs of exposure to lingering oil. However, related studies on sea otter demographics indicate that by 2012, the sea otter population in WPWS had recovered, which indicates diminishing oil exposure.

Alaska↗
USGS1996

The Border Ranges fault system in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska: Evidence for major early Cenozoic dextral strike-slip motion

The Border Ranges fault system of southern Alaska, the fundamental break between the arc basement and the forearc accretionary complex, is the boundary between the Peninsular–Alexander–Wrangellia terrane and the Chugach terrane. The fault system separates crystalline rocks of the Alexander terrane from metamorphic rocks of the Chugach terrane in Glacier Bay National Park. Mylonitic rocks in the zone record abundant evidence for dextral strike-slip motion along north-northwest-striking subvertical surfaces. Geochronologic data together with regional correlations of Chugach terrane rocks involved in the deformation constrain this movement between latest Cretaceous and Early Eocene (~50 Ma). These findings are in agreement with studies to the northwest and southeast along the Border Ranges fault system which show dextral strike-slip motion occurring between 58 and 50 Ma. Correlations between Glacier Bay plutons and rocks of similar ages elsewhere along the Border Ranges fault system suggest that as much as 700 km of dextral motion may have been accommodated by this structure. These observations are consistent with oblique convergence of the Kula plate during early Cenozoic and forearc slivering above an ancient subduction zone following late Mesozoic accretion of the Peninsular–Alexander–Wrangellia terrane to North America.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Changes in rocky intertidal community structure during a marine heatwave in the northern Gulf of Alaska

Marine heatwaves are global phenomena that can have major impacts on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. By mid-2014, the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) was evident in intertidal waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska and persisted for multiple years. While offshore marine ecosystems are known to respond to these warmer waters, the response of rocky intertidal ecosystems to this warming is unclear. Intertidal communities link terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their resources are important to marine and terrestrial predators and to human communities for food and recreation, while simultaneously supporting a growing coastal tourism industry. Given that current climate change projections suggest increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves, monitoring and understanding the impacts of heatwaves on intertidal habitats is important. As part of the Gulf Watch Alaska Long-Term Monitoring program, we examined rocky intertidal community structure at 21 sites across four regions spanning 1,200 km of coastline: Western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve. Sites were monitored annually from 2012 to 2019 at mid and low tidal strata. Before-PMH (2012–2014), community structure differed among regions. We found macroalgal foundation species declined during this period mirroring patterns observed elsewhere for subtidal habitat formers during heatwave events. The region-wide shift from an autotroph-macroalgal dominated rocky intertidal to a heterotroph-filter-feeder dominated state concurrent with the changing environmental conditions associated with a marine heatwave event suggests the PMH had Gulf-wide impacts to the structure of rocky intertidal communities. During/after-PMH (2015–2019), similarities in community structure increased across regions, leading to a greater homogenization of these communities, due to declines in macroalgal cover, driven mostly by a decline in the rockweed, Fucus distichus , and other fleshy red algae in 2015, followed by an increase in barnacle cover in 2016, and an increase in mussel cover in 2017. Strong, large-scale oceanographic events, like the PMH, may override local drivers to similarly influence patterns of intertidal community structure.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Submarine landslide susceptibility mapping in recently deglaciated terrain, Glacier Bay, Alaska

Submarine mass wasting events have damaged underwater structures and propagated waves that have inundated towns and affected human populations in nearby coastal areas. Susceptibility to submarine landslides can be pronounced in degrading cryospheric environments, where existing glaciers can provide high volumes of sediment, while cycles of glaciation and ice-loss can damage and destabilize slopes. Despite their contribution to potential tsunami hazard, submarine landslides can be difficult to study because of limited access and data collection in underwater environments. Here we present a method to quantify and map the submarine landslide susceptibility of sediment-covered slopes in Glacier Bay, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, using multibeam-sonar bathymetric digital elevation models (DEMs) and historical maps of glacial extents over the last ∼250 years. After mapping an inventory of >7,000 landslide scarps in submarine sediments, we filtered the inventory by size to account for limitations in DEM resolution and spatial scales relevant to tsunami hazards. We then assessed landslide concentration, accounting for the age of the initial exposure of submarine slopes by deglaciation. We found a positive correlation between landslide concentration and deglaciation age, which we interpreted as a mean landslide accumulation rate over the period of record. Local deviations from this rate indicated differences in susceptibility. Additionally, we accounted for some of the effect of material and morphometric properties by estimating the submarine bedrock-sediment distribution using a morphometric model and assessing the relationship between slope angle and landslide incidence. Finally, we supplemented our susceptibility assessment with a geomorphic component based on the propensity of active submarine fans and deltas to produce landslides. Thus, our map of submarine landslide susceptibility incorporates three components: age-adjusted landslide concentration, slope angle, and geomorphology. We find that areas of mapped high susceptibility correlate broadly with areas of high sediment input and availability, locations of fans and deltas, and steep sediment-covered glacially carved fjords and troughs. Areas of high submarine landslide susceptibility in Glacier Bay moderately correspond with locations of known high-hazard subaerial slopes, but more research on submarine and subaerial landslides in degrading cryospheric environments would be beneficial to better understand landslide and tsunami hazards.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Phenotypic plasticity or a reproductive dead end? Primnoa pacifica (Cnidaria: Alcyonacea) in the southeastern Alaska region

Red tree corals ( Primnoa pacifica ) are abundant in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, from the glacial fjords of Southeast Alaska where they emerge to as shallow as 6 m, to the continental shelf edge and seamounts where they are more commonly found at depths greater than 150 – 500 m. This keystone species forms large thickets, creating habitat for many associated species, including economically valuable fishes and crabs, and so are important benthic suspension feeders in this region. Though the reproductive periodicity of this species was reported in 2014 from a shallow fjord (Tracy Arm), this study examined reproductive ecologies from 8 sites – two within Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, three on the continental shelf edge, one within Endicott Arm (Holkham Bay) and two time points from the Tracy Arm (Holkham Bay) study. Male reproductive traits were similar at all sites but there were distinct differences in oogenesis. Though per polyp fecundity mostly showed no significant difference between sites, there was a non-significant trend of increasing number of oocytes with depth. In addition, the average oocyte size from Tracy Arm (the shallowest site) was 105 μm, whereas from Shutter Ridge (one of the deepest sites) the average size was 309 μm. Moreover, the maximum oocyte size at Endicott Arm was 221 μm and at Tracy Arm was 802 μm (both shallow sites), whereas at Dixon Entrance (a deep site) it was 2120 μm, a difference not usually observed within a single species. We propose two theories to explain the observed differences, (a) this species shows great phenotypic plasticity in reproductive ecology, adjusting to different environmental variables based on energetic need and potentially demonstrating micro-evolution; or (b) the fjord sites are at a reproductive dead end, with the stress of shallow-water conditions effectively preventing gametogenesis reaching full potential and likely limiting successful reproductive events from occurring, at least on a regular basis.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

California↗
USGS2002

Marine predator surveys in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve

Since 1999, vessel based surveys to estimate species composition, distribution and relative abundance of marine birds and mammals have been conducted along coastal and pelagic (offshore) transects in Glacier Bay, Alaska. Surveys have been conducted during winter (November-March) and summer (June). This annual report presents the results of those surveys conducted in March and June of 2001. Following completion of surveys in 2002 we will provide a final report of the results of all surveys conducted between 1999 and 2002. Glacier Bay supports diverse and abundant assemblages of marine birds and mammals. In 2001 we identified 58 species of bird, 7 species of marine mammal, and 6 species of terrestrial mammal on transects sampled during winter and summer. Of course all species are not equally abundant. Among all taxa, in both seasons, sea ducks were the numerically dominant group. In their roles as consumers and because of their generally large size, marine mammals are also likely important in the consumption of energy produced in the Glacier Bay ecosystem. Most common and abundant marine birds and mammals can be placed in either a fish based (e.g. alcids and pinnipeds), or a benthic invertebrate (e.g. sea ducks and sea otters) based food web. Distinct differences in the species composition and abundance of marine birds were observed between winter and summer surveys. Winter marine bird assemblages were dominated numerically (> 11,000; 65% of all birds) by a relatively few species of sea ducks (scoters, goldeneye, Bufflehead, Harlequin and Long-tailed ducks). The sea ducks were distributed almost exclusively along near shore habitats. The prevalence of sea ducks during the March surveys indicates the importance of Glacier Bay as a wintering area for this poorly understood group of animals that occupy a high trophic position in a principally benthic invertebrate (mussel and clam) food web. Marine mammal assemblages were generally consistent between seasons, although Humpback and Killer whales were not observed in winter 2001. Summer marine bird assemblages remained numerically dominated by sea ducks, but species composition shifted between the goldeneye whose density was 44/m 2 in winter to < 0.2/m 2 in summer, to scoters, whose density was 29/m 2 in winter to > 60/m 2 in summer. Large increases in Black-legged kittiwake, murrelet (Marbled and Kittlitz’s) and Common merganser densities were detected during summer surveys. Seasonal differences in abundance of species likely reflected differences in life history attributes (e.g. reproductive biology, foraging ecology) among species. Because of differences observed in species composition between the winter and summer, it is apparent that a single annual survey cannot accurately describe the populations of marine birds and mammals that occur in Glacier Bay. Preliminary analysis further suggests that interpretations of data resulting from this type of survey may depend to a large extent on the individual species. Because species exhibit differences in behavior, morphology, coloration, and distribution, accuracy and precision of abundance estimates likely vary among species. Confidence in survey results should be evaluated in consideration of life history and detection probabilities at the species level. However, survey results likely provide reasonable estimates of species composition and relative abundance, as well as accurate abundance estimates for those species whose detection closely approximates one.

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