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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050

Background Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting. Results The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m 2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m 2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m 2 /year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m 2 /year in 2006 to 310 gC/m 2 /year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m 2 /year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m 2 /year during 2006–2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006–2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks. Conclusions The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006–2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m 2 , which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m 2 , and thus is not significant.

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem↗
USGS2024

Vegetation, fuels, and fire-behavior responses to linear fuel-break treatments in and around burned sagebrush steppe: Are we breaking the grass-fire cycle?

Background Linear fuel breaks are being implemented to moderate fire behavior and improve wildfire containment in semiarid landscapes such as the sagebrush steppe of North America, where extensive losses in perennial vegetation and ecosystem functioning are resulting from invasion by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) that foster large and recurrent wildfires. However, fuel-break construction can also pose EAG invasion risks, which must be weighed against the intended fire-moderation benefits of the treatments. We investigated how shrub reductions (mowing, cutting), pre-emergent EAG-herbicides, and/or drill seedings of fire-resistant perennial bunchgrasses (PBGs) recently applied to create a large fuel-break system affected native and exotic plant abundances and their associated fuel loading and predicted fire behavior. Results In heavily EAG-invaded areas, herbicides reduced EAG and total herbaceous cover without affecting PBGs for 2–3 years and reduced predicted fire behavior for 1 year (from the Fuel Characteristic Classification System). However, surviving post-herbicide EAG cover was still > 30%, which was sufficient fuel to exceed the conventional 1.2-m-flame length (FL) threshold for attempting wildfire suppression with hand tools. In less invaded shrubland, shrub reduction treatments largely reduced shrub cover and height by ~ half without increasing EAGs, but then redistributed the wood to ground level and increased total herbaceous cover. Herbicides and/or drill seeding after shrub reductions did not affect EAG cover, although drill seedings increased PBG cover and exotic forbs (e.g., Russian thistle). Fire behavior was predicted to be moderated in only one of the many yearly observations of the various shrub-reduction treatment combinations. Over all treatments and years, FLs were predicted to exceed 1.2 m in 13% of simulations under average (11 km h −1 ) or high (47 km h −1 ) wind speed conditions and exceed the 3.4-m threshold for uncontrollable fire in 11% of simulations under high-wind speeds only. Conclusions Predicted fire-moderation benefits over the first 4 years of fuel break implementation were modest and variable, but, generally, increases in EAGs and their associated fire risks were not observed. Nonetheless, ancillary evidence from shrublands would suggest that treatment-induced shifts from shrub to herbaceous fuel dominance are expected to improve conditions for active fire suppression in ways not readily represented in available fire models.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2025

Recent large-scale prescribed fire treatments reduced Carr Fire severity at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area

Background Severe fire weather is becoming more common throughout the western United States. Changing conditions demand a better understanding of how prescribed fire treatments perform under extreme burning conditions, including the interactive influence of the age of treatments, vegetation, and fire weather. The Carr Fire of July 2018 burned nearly the entire land area of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (NRA) under extreme fuel moisture and temperature conditions. Prior to the Carr Fire and since 1997, staff at Whiskeytown NRA treated 23% of the 15,756-ha NRA using large-scale prescribed fire (underburn) treatments ranging in size from 40 to 400 hectares. Methods We used simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models to describe the effects of landscape-scale fuel treatments on wildfire severity under extreme burning conditions and across diverse biophysical settings at Whiskeytown NRA. Because vegetation type and structure are known drivers of fire severity in diverse ecosystems such as at Whiskeytown NRA, we also considered three different sources of vegetation structure data, including a 2006 physiognomic-floristic classification, a 2011 lidar-based forest structure classification, and a 2016 Landfire map of existing vegetation physiognomy-subclass. Results The greatest effect on 2018 Carr Fire severity was time since treatment of underburn treatments, but treatment effectiveness on fire severity dissipated rapidly—showing notable effectiveness within 5 years of underburning but virtually no effectiveness beyond 10 years post-treatment. Additional factors related to severity included vegetation structure type, topographic position index, aspect, slope, temperature, and wind gust speed. Model variance explained and model parameters, including the effect of underburn treatments, were similar regardless of the source of vegetation structure data. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale underburning treatments can reduce wildfire severity even under extreme fire weather conditions but suggest that frequent maintenance intervals are required to maintain treatment effectiveness ahead of severe wildfire events.

California↗
USGS2025

Near real-time indicators of burn severity in the western U.S. from active fire tracking

Background Timely information on wildfire burn severity is critical to assess and mitigate potential post-fire impacts on soils, vegetation, and hillslope stability. Tracking individual fire spread and intensity using satellite active fire data provides a pathway to near real-time (NRT) information. Here, we generated a large database ( n = 2177) of wildfire events in the western United States (U.S.) between 2012 and 2021 using active fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite and the Fire Events Data Suite (FEDS) algorithm to track large fire growth every 12 h. We integrated fire tracking data with final fire perimeters and burn severity data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) program to evaluate the relationship between burn severity and fire behavior metrics derived from the fire tracking approach, including the rate of fire spread and average fire radiative power (FRP) of fire detections for each 12-h growth increment. Results When stratified by vegetation type, FRP and rate of spread metrics were positively correlated with classified burn severity for each 12-h growth increment, highlighting the potential to rapidly identify areas of high and low severity burning. In forests, integrated measures of FRP over the fire lifetime captured persistent flaming and smoldering that compensated for initial differences between AM (01:30) and PM (13:30) fire detections. Predictive modeling of these relationships based on multiple fire behavior indicators and vegetation type from the LANDFIRE program yielded an accuracy of 78% for the separation of unburned/low and moderate/high burn severity classes. Conclusions These results demonstrate the ability to capture within-fire differences in burn severity using NRT indicators from fire tracking to assist with emergency management and disaster preparedness for post-fire hazards, such as landslides, debris flows, or changes in stream flow and water quality. As VIIRS data are available within minutes of each satellite overpass in the U.S., rapid estimates of burn severity based on fire tracking can be made days or weeks before a large wildfire is fully contained.

western United States↗
USGS2007

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Western United States↗
USGS2011

The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, USA

Although primarily used to mitigate economic losses following disturbance, salvage logging has also been justified on the basis of reducing fire risk and fire severity; however, its ability to achieve these secondary objectives remains unclear. The patchiness resulting from a sequence of recent disturbances—blowdown, salvage logging, and wildfire—provided an excellent opportunity to assess the impacts of blowdown and salvage logging on wildfire severity. We used two fire‐severity assessments (tree‐crown and forest‐floor characteristics) to compare post‐wildfire conditions among three treatment combinations (Blowdown–Salvage–Fire, Blowdown–Fire, and Fire only). Our results suggest that salvage logging reduced the intensity (heat released) of the subsequent fire. However, its effect on severity (impact to the system) differed between the tree crowns and forest floor: tree‐crown indices suggest that salvage logging decreased fire severity (albeit with modest statistical support), while forest‐floor indices suggest that salvage logging increased fire severity. We attribute the latter finding to the greater exposure of mineral soil caused by logging operations; once exposed, soils are more likely to register the damaging effects of fire, even if fire intensity is not extreme. These results highlight the important distinction between fire intensity and severity when formulating post‐disturbance management prescriptions.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Assessment of boreal forest historical C dynamics in the Yukon River Basin: relative roles of warming and fire regime change

Carbon (C) dynamics of boreal forest ecosystems have substantial implications for efforts to mitigate the rise of atmospheric CO 2 and may be substantially influenced by warming and changing wildfire regimes. In this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C stock changes of the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska, USA, and Canada from 1960 through 2006, a period characterized by substantial climate warming and increases in wildfire. The model was calibrated for major forests with data from long-term research sites and evaluated using a forest inventory database. The regional assessment indicates that forest vegetation C storage increased by 46 Tg C, but that total soil C storage did not change appreciably during this period. However, further analysis suggests that C has been continuously lost from the mineral soil horizon since warming began in the 1970s, but has increased in the amorphous organic soil horizon. Based on a factorial experiment, soil C stocks would have increased by 158 Tg C if the YRB had not undergone warming and changes in fire regime. The analysis also identified that warming and changes in fire regime were approximately equivalent in their effects on soil C storage, and interactions between these two suggests that the loss of organic horizon thickness associated with increases in wildfire made deeper soil C stocks more vulnerable to loss via decomposition. Subbasin analyses indicate that C stock changes were primarily sensitive to the fraction of burned forest area within each subbasin and that boreal forest ecosystems in the YRB are currently transitioning from being sinks to sources at ∼0.7% annual area burned. We conclude that it is important for international mitigation efforts focused on controlling atmospheric CO 2 to consider how climate warming and changes in fire regime may concurrently affect the CO 2 sink strength of boreal forests. It is also important for large-scale biogeochemical and earth system models to include organic soil dynamics in applications to assess regional C dynamics of boreal forests responding to warming and changes in fire regime.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2013

Regional constraints to biological nitrogen fixation in post-fire forest communities

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is a key ecological process that can restore nitrogen (N) lost in wildfire and shape the pace and pattern of post-fire forest recovery. To date, there is limited information on how climate and soil fertility interact to influence different pathways of BNF in early forest succession. We studied asymbiotic (forest floor and soil) and symbiotic (the shrub Ceanothus integerrimus) BNF rates across six sites in the Klamath National Forest, California, USA. We used combined gradient and experimental phosphorus (P) fertilization studies to explore cross-site variation in BNF rates and then related these rates to abiotic and biotic variables. We estimate that our measured BNF rates 22 years after wildfire (6.1–12.1 kg N·ha -1 ·yr -1 ) are unlikely to fully replace wildfire N losses. We found that asymbiotic BNF is P limited, although this is not the case for symbiotic BNF in Ceanothus. In contrast, Ceanothus BNF is largely driven by competition from other vegetation: in high-productivity sites with high potential evapotranspiration (Et), shrub biomass is suppressed as tree biomass increases. Because shrub biomass governed cross-site variation in Ceanothus BNF, this competitive interaction led to lower BNF in sites with high productivity and Et. Overall, these results suggest that the effects of nutrients play a larger role in driving asymbiotic than symbiotic fixation across our post-fire sites. However, because symbiotic BNF is 8–90 x greater than asymbiotic BNF, it is interspecific plant competition that governs overall BNF inputs in these forests.

California↗
USGS2021

Time since burning and rainfall characteristics impact post-fire debris flow initiation and magnitude

The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote elevated rates of runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Debris flows are most common in the year immediately following wildfire, but temporal changes in the likelihood and magnitude of debris flows following wildfire are not well constrained. In this study, we combine measurements of soil-hydraulic properties with vegetation survey data and numerical modeling to understand how debris-flow threats are likely to change in steep, burned watersheds during the first 3 years of recovery. We focus on documenting recovery following the 2016 Fish Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, and demonstrate how a numerical model can be used to predict temporal changes in debris-flow properties and initiation thresholds. Numerical modeling suggests that the 15-minute intensity-duration (ID) threshold for debris flows in post-fire year 1 can vary from 15 to 30 mm/hr, depending on how rainfall is temporally distributed within a storm. Simulations further demonstrate that expected debris-flow volumes would be reduced by more than a factor of three following 1 year of recovery and that the 15-minute rainfall ID threshold would increase from 15 to 30 mm/hr to greater than 60 mm/hr by post-fire year 3. These results provide constraints on debris-flow thresholds within the San Gabriel Mountains and highlight the importance of considering local rainfall characteristics when using numerical models to assess debris-flow and flood potential.

Environmental Engineering and Geology↗
USGS2006

Drought of 1998-2002: impacts on Florida's hydrology and landscape

Lower than normal precipitation caused a severe statewide drought in Florida from 1998 to 2002. Based on precipitation and streamflow records dating to the early 1900s, the drought was one of the worst ever to affect the State. In terms of severity, this drought was comparable to the drought of 1949-1957 in duration and had record-setting low flows in several basins. The drought was particularly severe over the 5-year period in the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of Florida, where rainfall deficits ranged from 9-10 in. below normal (southwest Florida) to 38-40 in. below normal (northwest Florida). Within these regions, the drought caused record-low streamflows in several river basins, increased freshwater withdrawals, and created hazardous conditions ripe for wildfires, sinkhole development, and even the draining of lakes. South Florida was affected primarily in 2001, when the region experienced below-average streamflow conditions; however, cumulative rainfall in south Florida never fell below the 30-year normal. The four regions of Florida, as referred to throughout this report, are defined based upon U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data collection regions in Florida. Record-low flows were reported at several streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State, including the Withlacoochee River at Trilby, which reached zero flow on June 10-11, 2000, for the first time during the period of record (1928-2004). Streamflow conditions varied across the State from 31 percent of average flow in 2000 in southwest Florida, to 100 percent of average in 1999 in south Florida. Low-flow recurrence intervals during the drought ranged from less than 2 years at three locations to greater than 50 years at many locations. During the 1998-2002 drought, ground-water levels at many wells across the State declined to elevations not seen in many years. At some wells, ground-water levels reached record lows for their period of record. Florida Water Management Districts responded by issuing water-shortage mandates to curb water use during the spring months of 2000. Generally, freshwater withdrawals increased 13 percent between 1995 and 2000 as a result of the dry conditions. Hundreds of new sinkholes developed across the State. Lake Jackson, in northwest Florida near Tallahassee, experienced its eighth and ninth drawdowns of the past 100 years, and became nearly dry. Numerous other lakes in northern and central Florida experienced similar events. Water restrictions were put into effect in urban areas of the northeast, southwest, and south Florida regions. Wildfires periodically raged over parts of Florida throughout the period, when tinder-dry undergrowth caught fire from lightning strikes or manmade causes. Smoke from these fires caused traffic delays as sections of major highways and interstate lanes forced traffic to slow to a crawl or were closed. Wildfire statistics (Florida Division of Forestry) show that 25,137 fires burned 1.5 million acres between 1998 and 2002. Finally, rainfall that occurred in late 2002, in 2003, and from a tropical storm and four hurricanes in 2004 ended this drought.

Circular↗
USGS2019

Wildland Fire Science — Supporting wildland fire and land management

The U.S. Geological Survey's Wildland Fire Science Program produces fundamental information to identify the causes of wildfires, understand the impacts and benefits of both wildfires and prescribed fires, and help prevent and manage larger, catastrophic events. Our fire scientists provide information and develop tools that are widely used by stakeholders to make decisions before, during, and after wildfires in desert, grassland, tundra, wetland, and forest ecosystems across the United States.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

Wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey—Supporting wildland fire and land management across the United States postcard

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Wildland Fire Science Program produces information to identify the causes of wildfires, understand the impacts and benefits of both wildfires and prescribed fires, and help prevent and manage larger, catastrophic events. USGS fire scientists provide information and develop tools that are widely used by stakeholders to make decisions before, during, and after wildfires in desert, grassland, tundra, wetland, and forest ecosystems across the United States. Active areas of research include— Wildland fire behavior and risk management Fire ecology, fire effects, and post-fire restoration of ecosystems Risk assessments for human health, public safety, and the Nation’s infrastructure Remote sensing and geospatial tools and data.

General Information Product↗
USGS2006

Preliminary Assessment of Landslides Along the Florida River Downstream from Lemon Reservoir, La Plata County, Colorado

Nearly two-dozen shallow landslides were active during spring 2005 on a hillside located along the east side of the Florida River about one kilometer downstream from Lemon Reservoir in La Plata County, southwestern Colorado. Landslides on the hillside directly threaten human safety, residential structures, a county roadway, utilities, and the Florida River, and indirectly threaten downstream areas and Lemon Dam. Most of the area where the landslides occurred was burned during the 2002 Missionary Ridge wildfire. We performed geologic mapping, subsurface exploration and sampling, radiocarbon dating, and shallow ground-water and ground-displacement monitoring to assess landslide activity. Active landslides during spring 2005 were as large as 35,000 m3 and confined to colluvium. Debris flows were mobilized from most of the landslides, were as large as 1,500 m3, and traveled as far as 250 m. Landslide activity was triggered by elevated ground-water pressures within the colluvium caused by infiltration of snowmelt. Landslide activity ceased as ground-water pressures dropped during the summer. Shallow landslides on the hillside appear to be much more likely following the Missionary Ridge fire because of the loss of tree root strength and evapotranspiration. We used monitoring data and observations to develop preliminary, approximate rainfall/snowmelt thresholds above which shallow landslide activity can be expected. Landslides triggered during spring 2005 occurred within a 1.97 x 107 m3 older landslide that extends, on average, about 40 m into bedrock. The south end of this older landslide appears to have experienced deep secondary landsliding. Radiocarbon dating of sediments at the head of the older landslide suggests that the landslide was active about 1,424-1,696 years ago. A relatively widespread wildfire may have preceded the older landslide, and the landslide may have occurred during a wetter time. The wetter climate and effects of the wildfire would likely have resulted in increased ground-water pressures, which may have triggered the older landslide. This landslide appears to have crossed the valley floor and been subsequently eroded from this area. We found no evidence that landslide debris across the valley floor formed an impoundment of the Florida River, although it is very likely. Erosion of buttressing landslide debris from the valley floor and the lower strength of the landslide basal shear zone relative to pre-slide strength created less stable conditions than were present prior to occurrence of the landslide. However, deep ground-water conditions largely control the stability of the slope and are unknown here; hence, the potential for future deep landsliding is unknown. Additional investigation could be undertaken to further characterize landslide hazards in the area. This investigation could include episodic surveying of monuments we installed across the older landslide, obtaining detailed topographic data and aerial photography, mapping landslide debris and lacustrine deposits related to the potential former landslide dam, mapping secondary landslides, obtaining additional ages of landslide activity, constructing deep boreholes and ground-water monitoring wells, laboratory testing of soil and rock strength and hydraulic properties, and ground-water and slope-stability modeling.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Coastal Circulation and Sediment Dynamics in War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park, Guam; measurements of waves, currents, temperature, salinity, and turbidity, June 2007-January 2008

Flow in and around coral reefs affects a number of physical, chemical and biologic processes that influence the health and sustainability of coral reef ecosystems. These range from the residence time of sediment and contaminants to nutrient uptake and larval retention and dispersal. As currents approach a coast they diverge to flow around reef structures, causing high horizontal and vertical shear. This can result in either the rapid advection of material in localized jets, or the retention of material in eddies that form in the lee of bathymetric features. The high complexity and diversity both within and between reefs, in conjunction with past technical restrictions, has limited our understanding of the nature of flow and the resulting flux of physical, chemical, and biologic material in these fragile ecosystems. Sediment, nutrients, and other pollutants from a variety of land-based activities adversely impact many coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. and around the world. These pollutants are transported in surface water runoff, groundwater seepage, and atmospheric fallout into coastal waters, and there is compelling evidence that the sources have increased globally as a result of human-induced changes to watersheds. In Guam, and elsewhere on U.S. high islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, significant changes in the drainage basins due to agriculture, feral grazing, fires, and urbanization have in turn altered the character and volume of land-based pollution released to coral reefs. Terrigenous sediment run-off (and the associated nutrients and contaminants often absorbed to it) and deposition on coral reefs are recognized to potentially have significant impact on coral health by blocking light and inhibiting photosynthesis, directly smothering and abrading coral, and triggering increases in macro algae. Studies that combine information on watershed, surface water- and groundwater-flow, transport and fate of sediment and other pollutants in the reef environment, and their impact on reef health and ecology are essential for effective reef management. Two of the main anthropogenic activities along west-central Guam's coastline that may impact the region's coral reef ecosystems include pollution and coastal land use/development, as discussed in the review by Porter and others (2005). The pollution threats include point-sources, such as municipal wastewater (Northern District, Hagatna, Naval Station Guam, and Agat-Santa Rita Waster Water Treatment Plants), cooling water (Tanguisson Steam and Cabras Power Plants), and numerous storm water, ballast water, and tank bottom draw outfalls; nonpoint sources include septic systems, urban runoff, illegal dumping, and groundwater discharges. Poor land-use practices include development without the use of runoff management measures, increased areal extent of impervious surfaces and decreased extent of vegetative barriers, and recreational off-road vehicle use. Furthermore, feral ungulates and illegal wildfires remove protective vegetative cover and generally result in increased soil erosion. While anthropogenic point-sources have been reduced in many areas due to better management practices, nonpoint sources have either stayed constant or increased. Between 1975 and 1999, it is estimated that Guam lost more than a quarter of its tree cover, and more than 750 wildfires each year have resulted in a greater proportion of badlands and other erosion-prone land surfaces with high erosion rates (Forestry and Soil Resources Division, 1999). Approximately 1.8 square kilometers (km2) of Asan Bay, west-central Guam, lies within the National Park Service's (NPS) War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park's (WAPA) Asan Unit; the bay is the sink for material coming out of the Asan watershed. Anthropogenic modifications of the watersheds adjacent to Asan Bay, which include intentionally-set wildfires, construction, and agriculture (Minton, 2005), are believed to have increased over the past 25

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Soil data from fire and permafrost-thaw chronosequences in upland Picea mariana stands near Hess Creek and Tok, interior Alaska

Soils of the Northern Circumpolar Permafrost region harbor 1,672 petagrams (Pg) (1 Pg = 1,000,000,000 kilograms) of organic carbon (OC), nearly 50 percent of the global belowground OC pool (Tarnocai and others, 2009). Of that soil OC, nearly 88 percent is presently stored in perennially frozen ground. Recent climate warming at northern latitudes has resulted in warming and thawing of permafrost in many regions (Osterkamp, 2007), which might mobilize OC stocks from associated soil reservoirs via decomposition, leaching, or erosion. Warming also has increased the magnitude and severity of wildfires in the boreal region (Turetsky and others, 2011), which might exacerbate rates of permafrost degradation relative to warming alone. Given the size and vulnerability of the soil OC pool in permafrost soils, permafrost thaw will likely function as a strong positive feedback to the climate system (Koven and others, 2011; Schaefer and others, 2011). In this report, we report soil OC inventories from two upland fire chronosequences located near Hess Creek and Tok in Interior Alaska. We sampled organic and mineral soils in the top 2 meters (m) across a range of stand ages to evaluate the effects of wildfire and permafrost thaw on soil C dynamics. These data were used to parameterize a simple process-based fire-permafrost-carbon model, which is described in detail by O’Donnell and others (2011a, b). Model simulations examine long-term changes in soil OC storage in response to fire, permafrost thaw, and climate change. These data also have been used in other papers, including Harden and others (2012), which examines C recovery post-fire, and Johnson and others (2011), which synthesizes data within the Alaska Soil Carbon Database. Findings from these studies highlight the importance of climate and disturbance (wildfire, permafrost thaw) on soil C storage, and loss of soil C from high-latitude ecosystems.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment: Restoration topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are substantial management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions, and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed 10 needs (hereinafter “Needs”) identified under the Restoration topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs for improving restoration success in degraded sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (“Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 371 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Restoration topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: the development of methods to improve seeding success of native plants after fire; evaluation of short- and long-term plant responses relative to biotic and abiotic factors following restoration treatments; assessments of long-term effects on ecosystem processes following conifer removal treatments and development of decision support tools to aid in conifer management; determination of the costs of restoration treatments relative to the benefits to sage-grouse occupancy, survival, and populations; and assessments of the factors which contribute to soil degradation and development of soil enhancement methods that enhance seed germination and seedling survival while resisting nonnative plants. Needs that were not addressed well included: the development of methods for the rapid recovery of sagebrush and native herbaceous plants following wildfire and determination of whether treatments benefit sage-grouse and mitigate impacts from fires; determination of thresholds for successful restoration across a range of environmental conditions and development of decision support tools to assist with restoration effectiveness monitoring; and development and evaluation of the utility of seed transfer zones. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗
USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment—Fire topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed eight needs (hereinafter known as “Needs”) identified under the Fire topic in the Plan, defined as any non-structure fire that occurs in vegetation or natural fuels, including wildfires and prescribed fires. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding the mechanisms and management of threats posed to the maintenance of large, contiguous sagebrush rangelands by fire. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (‘Next Steps’) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (in other words., addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 156 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Fire topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: studies of relationships between fire and the sagebrush ecosystem (Need 1) investigations of the responses of sage-grouse to burned area characteristics (Need 2); spatial modeling of fire risk (Need 3); studies of the effects of fuels management treatments (Need 4); sagebrush reduction treatments on multiple characteristics of the sagebrush ecosystem (Need 6); and assessments of the role of fire in maintaining healthy sagebrush communities (Need 7). Needs addressed poorly included: assessments of the effects of fuel breaks on sage-grouse (Need 5); and investigations of characteristics associated with the effectiveness of fuel breaks (Need 8). The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗