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USGS1988

Ducks Get Sick Too!

When it comes to getting sick, wild waterfowl—which include ducks, geese, and swans—are a lot like people. We are all vulnerable to a wide variety of diseases. Some diseases that affect waterfowl, such as avian botulism, have been recognized for many decades as a major cause of death. Others, such as duck plague, are relative newcomers to the known roster of waterfowl diseases. Unfortunately, the number of waterfowl diseases as well as disease-breeding conditions are on the increase. As human development has expanded and encroached on wetlands, more and more waterfowl have been forced into less and less habitat. The resulting crowding can promote the spread of infectious disease caused by toxicants and other noninfectious agents. Although millions of waterfowl die of disease each year, it is often difficult to "see" the disease process occurring. Sick and dying birds usually seek cover to hide, and predators and scavengers eventually devour most of them. When disease becomes epidemic (a disease epidemic in animals is called an epizootic) and sick and dead birds become too numerous for predators and scavengers to eliminate, the disease process becomes far more noticeable. The diseases described in this booklet are among the most common causes of death in wild waterfowl, and include examples of those cause by bacteria, viruses, parasites, fungi, and toxic substances.

Report↗

USGS2023

Potential effects of habitat change on migratory bird movements and avian influenza transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.

Diversity↗

USGS2001

Duck plague epizootics in the United States, 1967-1995

In 1967, the first confirmed diagnosis of duck plague (DP) in the USA was made from pekin ducks ( Anas platyrhynchos domesticus ) on commercial duck farms on Long Island, New York. Within 10 mo, DP was confirmed as the cause of death in migratory waterfowl on a Long Island bay. This paper reviews 120 DP epizootics reported from 1967 to 1995 that involved waterfowl species native to North America or were reported in areas with free-flying waterfowl at risk. Duck plague epizootics occurred in 21 states with the greatest number reported in Maryland (29), New York (18), California (16), and Pennsylvania (13). The greatest frequency of epizootics (86%) was detected during the months of March to June. At least 40 waterfowl species were affected with the highest frequency of epizootics reported in captive or captive-reared ducks including muscovy ducks ( Cairina moschata ) (68%), mallard ducks ( A. platyrhynchos ) (18%) and black ducks ( A. rubripes ) (14%). The greatest number of waterfowl died in three epizootics that involved primarily migratory birds in 1967 and 1994 in New York (USA) and 1973 in South Dakota (USA). The greatest number of DP epizootics reported since 1967 appear to have involved flocks of non-migratory rather than migratory waterfowl; therefore, in our opinion it remains unknown if DP is enzootic in either non-migratory or migratory waterfowl.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS1990

Sago pondweed (Potamogeton pectinatus L.): A literature review

Sago pondweed ( Potamogeton pectinatus L.) is a submersed macrophyte of nearly cosmopolitan distribution. The plant is of worldwide importance as a waterfowl food but also can be a nuisance in irrigation canals and recreational areas. The plant reproduces by many different means, depending on habitat and environmental stress. Several genetic ecotypes have evolved. Most important as waterfowl food are the turions (tubers), vegetative propagules rich in carbohydrates that are mostly buried in bottom sediments. In temperate wetlands, most turions sprout in spring, making sago behave as an annual. Drupelets (seeds) are the sexual propagules of sago and provide a mechanism for sago to survive periods of drought and excessive water salinity. Drupelets can be washed ashore or carried by birds for long distances. Sago decomposes rapidly at senescence, annually in temperate wetlands. Sago is mostly found in semipermanently or permanently flooded mixosaline lacustrine, palustrine, and riverine wetlands < 2.5 m deep, where fetches are not large or currents are < 1 m/s. Sago seems to prefer stable water levels but can tolerate significant water level fluctuations. Among the Potamogetons, only sago tolerates high salinity, pH, and alkalinity, but it fares poorly among specialist taxa in acidic or nutrient-poor waters. Sago is highly tolerant of eutrophic waters, and it can be the only species of submersed macrophyte present in heavily polluted sites. Sago grows in nearly all bottom substrates. Turbidity is the factor that most frequently limits sago growth. Sago often occurs in monotypic stands but can grow with many other submersed and emergent macrophytes. Dominance by sago in certain wetlands sometimes alternates with dominance by other submersed macrophytes when salinities or other environmental factors change. Sago also can be associated with a large variety of unattached filamentous, planktonic, or epiphytic algae. Increased turbidity caused by planktonic algae often is responsible for lowered sago production. Less common biotic limiting factors are organic pollutants and consumption and uprooting by waterfowl and fish. Sago provides food or shelter for amphibians, reptiles, fish, and mammals. The greatest value of sago in North America is as food for migrant and staging waterfowl, primarily diving ducks and swans. Sago beds also provide habitat for a large complex of invertebrates (an important food source for young waterfowl), but direct consumption of living sago by invertebrates is negligible. Sago has been propagated for many years-indoors, as an experimental organism for work in plant physiology or herbicide testing, and outdoors, for purposes of attracting waterfowl. Much work has also been done developing methods to control excessive sago growth in fishponds and irrigation canals. Future research should concentrate on (1) determining, in a variety of wetland types, the causes of light-limiting turbidity that often suppresses sago growth, (2) understanding the ways in which human activities on and near wetlands affect sago production, and (3) developing reliable and predictable techniques to stimulate sago production for waterfowl by using water level manipulations and other means, in a variety of environmental settings.

Resource Publication↗

USGS2021

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region↗

USGS2015

An empirical evaluation of landscape energetic models: Mallard and American black duck space use during the non-breeding period

Bird conservation Joint Ventures are collaborative partnerships between public agencies and private organizations that facilitate habitat management to support waterfowl and other bird populations. A subset of Joint Ventures has developed energetic carrying capacity models (ECCs) to translate regional waterfowl population goals into habitat objectives during the non-breeding period. Energetic carrying capacity models consider food biomass, metabolism, and available habitat to estimate waterfowl carrying capacity within an area. To evaluate Joint Venture ECCs in the context of waterfowl space use, we monitored 33 female mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and 55 female American black ducks ( A. rubripes ) using global positioning system satellite telemetry in the central and eastern United States. To quantify space use, we measured first-passage time (FPT: time required for an individual to transit across a circle of a given radius) at biologically relevant spatial scales for mallards (3.46 km) and American black ducks (2.30 km) during the non-breeding period, which included autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We developed a series of models to predict FPT using Joint Venture ECCs and compared them to a biological null model that quantified habitat composition and a statistical null model, which included intercept and random terms. Energetic carrying capacity models predicted mallard space use more efficiently during autumn and spring migrations, but the statistical null was the top model for winter. For American black ducks, ECCs did not improve predictions of space use; the biological null was top ranked for winter and the statistical null was top ranked for spring migration. Thus, ECCs provided limited insight into predicting waterfowl space use during the non-breeding season. Refined estimates of spatial and temporal variation in food abundance, habitat conditions, and anthropogenic disturbance will likely improve ECCs and benefit conservation planners in linking non-breeding waterfowl habitat objectives with distribution and population parameters. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Delaware, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jerse↗

USGS2025

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗

USGS2025

Landscape changes elevate the risk of avian influenza virus diversification and emergence in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) persistently threaten wild waterfowl, domestic poultry, and public health. The East Asian–Australasian Flyway plays a crucial role in HPAIV dynamics due to its large populations of migratory waterfowl and poultry. Over recent decades, this flyway has undergone substantial landscape changes, including both losses and gains of waterfowl habitats. These changes can affect waterfowl distributions, increase contact with poultry, and consequently alter ecological conditions that favor avian influenza virus (AIV) evolution. However, limited research has assessed these likely impacts. Here, we integrated empirical data and an individual-based model to simulate AIV transmission in migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, including wild-to-poultry spillover and reassortment dynamics in poultry, across landscapes representing the years 2000 and 2015. We used the reassortment incidence as a proxy for ecological and transmission conditions that support viral diversification and the emergence of novel subtypes. Our simulations show that landscape change reshaped the waterfowl distribution, facilitated bird aggregation at improved habitats, increased coinfection, and raised reassortment rate by 1,593%, indicating a substantially higher potential for viral diversification and emergence. Model-generated risk maps show expanded and increased reassortment risk in southeastern China, the Yellow River Basin, and northeastern China. These findings suggest the importance of landscape change as a driver of potential AIV diversification and subtype emergence. This underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate landscape dynamics, host movement, and viral evolution to better assess and mitigate future risk.

East Asian–Australasian Flyway↗

USGS2024

Evaluating approaches for integrating species distributions in spatial conservation planning

Map-based decision support tools (DSTs) that use species distributions are an important means of identifying priority areas for conservation. The 2020 Wisconsin Waterfowl Habitat Conservation Strategy (WWHCS) uses a DST to identify priority ecological landscapes and watersheds to guide waterfowl habitat projects. The WWHCS DST relies on waterfowl habitat suitability layers derived through expert opinion in lieu of species distributions, a common approach in DSTs. Given the inherent subjectivity of expert opinion, data-driven species distributions such as those available from citizen science projects, could provide more accurate information and better identify areas important for waterfowl conservation. Here, we explore the application of relative abundance products available through the eBird Status and Trends project as an alternative to expert-derived habitat suitability layers in the WWHCS DST. Our objectives were to compare seasonal species distributions derived from habitat suitability models (expert-derived) and species distribution models (eBird-derived) and determine whether differences influenced DST prioritizations. Correlations between expert- and eBird-derived distributions were generally low to moderate for the breeding and fall layers (ρ: -0.03–0.76), and least for the spring (ρ: -0.49–0.72). There was minimal agreement among top-ranked ecological landscapes (40%) and watersheds (28%) between the expert- and eBird-derived versions of the DST. Overall, our results suggest the DST may benefit from incorporating data-driven species distributions. However, additional work validating eBird relative abundance against professional surveys (e.g., aerial counts) and empirical studies evaluating waterfowl habitat selection and vital rates are important future considerations for the WWHCS DST and waterfowl habitat conservation in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Genetic diversity and host specificity varies across three genera of blood parasites in ducks of the Pacific Americas Flyway

Birds of the order Anseriformes, commonly referred to as waterfowl, are frequently infected by Haemosporidia of the genera Haemoproteus , Plasmodium , and Leucocytozoon via dipteran vectors. We analyzed nucleotide sequences of the Cytochrome b (Cyt b ) gene from parasites of these genera detected in six species of ducks from Alaska and California, USA to characterize the genetic diversity of Haemosporidia infecting waterfowl at two ends of the Pacific Americas Flyway. In addition, parasite Cyt b sequences were compared to those available on a public database to investigate specificity of genetic lineages to hosts of the order Anseriformes. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of Haemoproteus Cyt b sequences was lower than was detected for Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon parasites. Although waterfowl are presumed to be infected by only a single species of Leucocytozoon , L . simondi , diversity indices were highest for haplotypes from this genus and sequences formed five distinct clades separated by genetic distances of 4.9%–7.6%, suggesting potential cryptic speciation. All Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon haplotypes derived from waterfowl samples formed monophyletic clades in phylogenetic analyses and were unique to the order Anseriformes with few exceptions. In contrast, waterfowl-origin Plasmodium haplotypes were identical or closely related to lineages found in other avian orders. Our results suggest a more generalist strategy for Plasmodium parasites infecting North American waterfowl as compared to those of the genera Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon .

PLoS ONE↗

USGS1998

Effects of capture and handling on survival of female northern pintails

Identification of capture and handling procedures that influence survival of waterfowl has important research and management implications. We captured 347 female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) using rocket nets, fitted them with harness (backpack-type) radio transmitters, and monitored their survival during the first 10 d following release. Females were 16 times more likely to die during the first 4 d of exposure than during days 5-10. Survival of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl (n < 172) was not related to holding time (time from capture until release), but survival of females captured with large numbers of waterfowl (n = 594) declined as holding time increased. Survival did not vary with age (immature or adult) or body condition (body mass adjusted for body size) of females. Survival was positively related to flight quality (scored as poor, moderate, or good) of females upon release; poor and moderate fliers were twice as likely to die as those scored in the next higher level of flight quality. Flight quality of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl was unrelated to holding time, but that of females captured with large numbers of waterfowl declined as holding time increased. In all cases where cause of mortalities could be determined (n = 12), we attributed proximate cause of death to predation. We recommend that holding time of ducks be minimized, particularly for those captured with large numbers of waterfowl in rocket nets.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS1992

Ecology of playa lakes

Between 25,000 and 30,000 playa lakes are in the playa lakes region of the southern high plains (Fig. 1). Most playas are in west Texas (about 20,000), and fewer, in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. The playa lakes region is one of the most intensively cultivated areas of North America. Dominant crops range from cotton in southern areas to cereal grains in the north. Therefore, most of the native short-grass prairie is gone, replaced by crops and, recently, grasses of the Conservation Reserve Program. Playas are the predominant wetlands and major wildlife habitat of the region. More than 115 bird species, including 20 species of waterfowl, and 10 mammal species have been documented in playas. Waterfowl nest in the area, producing up to 250,000 ducklings in wetter years. Dominant breeding and nesting species are mallards and blue-winged teals. During the very protracted breeding season, birds hatch from April through August. Several million shorebirds and waterfowl migrate through the area each spring and fall. More than 400,000 sandhill cranes migrate through and winter in the region, concentrating primarily on the larger saline lakes in the southern portion of the playa lakes region. The primary importance of the playa lakes region to waterfowl is as a wintering area. Wintering waterfowl populations in the playa lakes region range from 1 to 3 million birds, depending on fall precipitation patterns that determine the number of flooded playas. The most common wintering ducks are mallards, northern pintails, green-winged teals, and American wigeons. About 500,000 Canada geese and 100,000 lesser snow geese winter in the playa lakes region, and numbers of geese have increased annually since the early 1980’s. This chapter describes the physiography and ecology of playa lakes and their attributes that benefit waterfowl.

Fish and Wildlife Leaflet↗

USGS2013

Application of ground-truth for classification and quantification of bird movements on migratory bird habitat initiative sites in southwest Louisiana: final report

This project was initiated to assess migrating and wintering bird use of lands enrolled in the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s (NRCS) Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative (MBHI). The MBHI program was developed in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, with the goal of improving/creating habitat for waterbirds affected by the spill. In collaboration with the University of Delaware (UDEL), we used weather surveillance radar data (Sieges 2014), portable marine radar data, thermal infrared images, and visual observations to assess bird use of MBHI easements. Migrating and wintering birds routinely make synchronous flights near dusk (e.g., departure during migration, feeding flights during winter). Weather radars readily detect birds at the onset of these flights and have proven to be useful remote sensing tools for assessing bird-habitat relations during migration and determining the response of wintering waterfowl to wetland restoration (e.g., Wetlands Reserve Program lands). However, ground-truthing is required to identify radar echoes to species or species group. We designed a field study to ground-truth a larger-scale, weather radar assessment of bird use of MBHI sites in southwest Louisiana. We examined seasonal bird use of MBHI fields in fall, winter, and spring of 2011-2012. To assess diurnal use, we conducted total area surveys of MBHI sites in the afternoon, collecting data on bird species composition, abundance, behavior, and habitat use. In the evenings, we quantified bird activity at the MBHI easements and described flight behavior (i.e., birds landing in, departing from, circling, or flying over the MBHI tract). Our field sampling captured the onset of evening flights and spanned the period of collection of the weather radar data analyzed. Pre- and post-dusk surveys were conducted using a portable radar system and a thermal infrared camera. Landbirds, shorebirds, and wading birds were commonly found on MBHI fields during diurnal surveys in the fall. Ducks (breeding and early migrating species) were also detected on diurnal surveys, but were less abundant than the previously mentioned taxa. Wading birds were the most abundant taxa observed during evening surveys up to 5 min before dusk when their numbers declined and duck densities increased. Ducks accounted for 64.0% of all birds detected from 0-5 min before dusk. Most ducks observed at that time were flyovers (71.4%), but circling (9.2%), departing (12.1%), and landing birds (7.4%) were also detected. In fall, the portable radar system detected two peaks in bird movement: one shortly before sunset and a second shortly after dusk. The later movement began just before dusk, peaked approximately 9 min after dusk, and concluded within 20 min after dusk. The flight headings of birds changed in relation to time from dusk. In general, the majority of targets flew towards the southwest before dusk and towards the northeast after dusk. The change in flight direction pre- and post-dusk may be related to movements dominated by migratory versus local flight. In winter, ducks, shorebirds, wading birds, and landbirds were the most abundant taxa in diurnal surveys. Geese were abundant at times, but their frequency of occurrence and densities were highly variable. The majority of ducks, shorebirds, and wading birds were observed feeding in MBHI fields. Landbirds and geese were more commonly seen resting. Overwintering ducks and geese dominated the movements near dusk (95.9% of all birds ≤ 5 min pre-dusk). Ducks were more frequently observed landing in (40.8%) and flying over (33.5%) MBHI fields while geese were mainly observed circling (54.7%) and flying over (38.9%) sites. Most of the shorebirds detected < 5 min before dusk (74.6% of all shorebirds) were departing the MBHI fields. Portable radar and thermal infrared camera data indicate that large northeastward movements of waterfowl (99.9% of birds identified to taxa) occurred after dusk (~10 min post-dusk). Most birds observed on radar during this peak were flyovers and did not use the MBHI fields (78.9%); however, birds were detected landing in (10.9%) and departing from (2.9%) MBHI fields. The post-dusk movements may have been waterfowl feeding flights that routinely occur in southwest Louisiana between roost sites in coastal marsh and foraging sites in agricultural fields to the north. After the conclusion of these movements ca. 30 min post-dusk, portable radar data showed little activity through the night until approximately 0.5 to 1.5 hr pre-dawn. Radar data within 30 min pre-dawn indicate that most birds departed MBHI fields on flight headings toward the southwest. The pre-dawn movements were likely waterfowl departing from their foraging sites and returning to roosting areas in coastal marshes to the south. Shorebirds, ducks, and wading birds were the most abundant taxa during diurnal surveys of MBHI fields in spring, and the majority of individuals were observed actively foraging rather than resting. Breeding, overwintering, and transient migrant species were all detected on MBHI fields. Near dusk, the majority of birds in flight were ducks (67.7% of all birds) that were flying over (38.2%), departing from (34.2%), or landing in (22.9%) MBHI fields. These results contrast with our winter observations when 40.8% of ducks landed in MBHI fields and 9.1% departed from fields. Portable radar and thermal camera data documented a peak in bird movements shortly after dusk, however, the peak was of lower magnitude than observed in the winter. Thermal camera data identified the birds as mostly shorebirds (57.3%) and waterfowl (40.4%). Flight headings were more variable than winter and lacked an undirectional flow. After the post-dusk movement had concluded, bird activity remained low throughout the night until approximately 30 min before dawn when a small peck in activity was observed. Flight headings during the pre-dawn were variable and multidirectional. We compared bird abundance data collected by each of our three sampling techniques (portable radar, thermal infrared camera, and direct visual observation) for the 45-min observation period immediately preceding dusk; the period when all three survey methods were used simultaneously. Abundance data from the three methods were significantly correlated at P ≤ 0.05. We documented diurnal and nocturnal bird use of MBHI fields. Most observations near dusk in winter, when weather radar data were sampled, were of ducks and geese, and in spring, shorebirds and ducks. Our winter observations show large synchronous movements of waterfowl occurring near dusk. These birds were moving to the NE and feeding in agricultural fields at night. Portable radar data suggest that birds stay in these fields through the night and make return flights near dawn.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movement and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterfowl in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available based on a probabilistic inundation status, and converting food resources to endogenous energy. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under a range of environmental conditions against expected outcomes derived from empirical data and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and to evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2001

Duck populations as indicators of landscape condition in the Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains is an important region for waterfowl production because of the abundance of shallow wetlands. The ecological significance of the region and impacts from intensive agriculture prompted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to select it as one of the first areas for developing and evaluating ecological indicators of wetland condition. We examined hypothesized relations between indicators of landscape and wetland conditions and waterfowl abundance on 45 40 km2 study sites in North Dakota for 1995-96. Landscape condition was defined a priori as the ratio of cropland area to total upland area surrounding wetlands. Measures of waterfowl abundance included estimated numbers of breeding pairs (by species and total numbers) and , a species-specific correction factor which effectively adjusts breeding pair estimates for annual or area-related differences in pond size. Landscape indicators and waterfowl measures varied among regions. Results indicated that most areas in the Coteau region are of much higher quality for ducks than those in the Drift Plain, and areas in the Red River Valley are of the poorest quality for ducks. Regression models demonstrated the impact of agricultural development on breeding duck populations in the Prairie Pothole Region. The most consistent landscape indicators of waterfowl abundance were percent of cropland and grassland. Models were inconsistent among years and species. The potential biotic indicators of landscape and wetland condition examined here would be appropriate for temporal trend analyses, but because of inherent geographic variability would not be appropriate for single-year geographic trend analyses without more extensive evaluations to improve explanatory models

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2017

Modeling and the management of migratory birds

Mathematical modeling of migratory bird populations is reviewed in the context of migratory bird management. We focus on dynamic models of waterfowl, since most management-oriented migratory bird models concern waterfowl species. We describe the management context for these modeling efforts, with a focus on large-scale operational data collection programs and on processes by which waterfowl harvest is regulated and waterfowl habitats are protected and managed. Through their impacts on key population parameters such as recruitment and survival rate, these activities can influence population dynamics, thereby providing managers some measure of control over the status of populations. Recent applications of the modeling of waterfowl are described in terms of objectives, mathematical structures, and contributions to management. Finally, we discuss research needs and data limitations in migratory bird modeling, and offer suggestions to increase the value to managers of future modeling efforts.

Natural Resource Modeling↗

USGS2016

Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using GIS and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 km to 30 km resolution for multi-scale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Avian Diseases↗

USGS2025

Perpetuation of avian influenza from molt to fall migration in wild Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides): An agent-based modeling approach

Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir of avian influenza, but their distinct annual life cycle stages and their contribution to disease dynamics are not well understood. Studies of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have primarily focused on wintering grounds, where human and poultry densities are high year-round, compared with breeding grounds, where migratory waterfowl are more isolated. Few if any studies of avian influenza have focused on the molting stage where wild waterfowl congregate in a few selected wetlands and undergo the simultaneous molt of wing and tail feathers during a vulnerable flightless period. The molting stage may be one of the most important periods for the perpetuation of the disease in waterfowl, since during this stage, immunologically naïve young birds and adults freely intermix prior to the fall migration. Our study incorporated empirical data from virological field samplings and markings of Swan Geese ( Anser cygnoides ) on their breeding grounds in Mongolia in an integrated agent-based model (ABM) that included susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) states. Our ABM results provided unique insights and indicated that individual movements between different molting wetlands and the transmission rate were the key predictors of HPAI perpetuation. While wetland extent was not a significant predictor of HPAI perpetuation, it had a large effect on the number of infections and associated death toll. Our results indicate that conserving undisturbed habitats for wild waterfowl during the molting stage of the breeding season could reduce the risk of HPAI transmission.

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