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Tropical forests and global change: Biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023

Tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth (Hengl et al ., 2017 ), contain c . 30% of terrestrial C stocks (Jobbagy & Jackson, 2000 ), and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally (Jackson et al ., 1996 ), as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes (Cusack et al ., 2021 ). Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC, 2021 ) are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1 ), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108 th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1 ).

New Phytologist

Agriculture — A river runs through it — The connections between agriculture and water quality

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and longterm economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, state, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs. Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. This report is one of a series of publications, The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters , which describes major findings of the NAWQA Project on water-quality issues of regional and national concern and provides science-based information for assessing and managing the quality of our groundwater resources. Other reports in this series focus on occurrence and distribution of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in streams and groundwater, the effects of contaminants and stream-flow alteration on the condition of aquatic communities in streams, and on the quality of groundwater from private domestic and public supply wells. Each reports builds toward a more comprehensive understanding of the quality of regional and national water resources. All NAWQA reports are available online ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ ). We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Circular

Synopsis of geologic and hydrologic results: Chapter A in Geological Survey research 1961

The Geological Survey is engaged in many different kinds of investigations in the fields of geology and hydrology. These investigations may be grouped into several broad, inter-related categories as follows: (a) Economic geology, including engineering geology (b) Regional geologic mapping, including detailed mapping and stratigraphic studies (c) Resource and topical studies (d) Ground-water studies (e) Surface-water studies (f) Quality-of-water studies (g) Field and laboratory research on geologic and hydrologic processes and principles. The Geological Survey also carries on investigations in its fields of competence for other Federal agencies that do not have the required specialized staffs or scientific facilities. Nearly all the Geological Survey's activities yield new data and principles of value in the development or application of the geologic and hydrologic sciences. The purpose of this report, which consists of 4 chapters, is to present as promptly as possible findings that have come to the fore during the fiscal year 1961 the 12 months ending June 30, 1961. The present volume, chapter A, is a synopsis of the highlights of recent findings of scientific and economic interest. Some of these findings have been published or placed on open file during the year; some are presented in chapters B, C, and D; still others have not been published previously. Only part of the scientific and economic results developed during the year can be presented in this synopsis. Readers who wish more complete or more detailed information should consult the bibliography of reports beginning on page A-156 of this volume, and the collection of short articles presented in the companion chapters as follows: Prof. Paper 424-B Articles 1 to 146 Prof. Paper 424-C Articles 147 to 292 Prof. Paper 424-D Articles 293 to 435 A list of investigations in progress in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions with the names and addresses of the project leaders is given on pages A-110 to A-155 for those interested in work in progress in various areas or on special topics. During the fiscal year 1961, the services of the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions were utilized, or supported financially in part, by the many Federal and State agencies listed on pages A-106 to A-109. The Geological Survey has also cooperated from time to time with other agencies, and some of the work described in these chapters stems from work of previous years in cooperation with agencies not shown on the list. All cooperating agencies are identified where appropriate in the individual short articles in chapters B, C, and D, and they are mentioned in connection with some of the larger programs summarized in chapter A; because of space limitations, however, their contributions are mentioned in many of the short summary paragraphs contained in chapter A.

Professional Paper

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report

Review of a model to assess stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River, Oregon and Washington

Long period wake waves from deep draft vessels have been shown to strand small fish, particularly juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tschawytcha, in the lower Columbia River (LCR). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for maintaining the shipping channel in the LCR and recently conducted dredging operations to deepen the shipping channel from an authorized depth of 40 feet(ft) to an authorized depth of 43 ft (in areas where rapid shoaling was expected, dredging operations were used to increase the channel depth to 48 ft). A model was developed to estimate stranding probabilities for juvenile salmon under the 40- and 43-ft channel scenarios, to determine if channel deepening was going to affect wake stranding (Assessment of potential stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River under scenarios of ship traffic and channel depth: Report prepared for the Portland District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, Oregon). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funded the U.S. Geological Survey to review this model. A total of 30 review questions were provided to guide the review process, and these questions are addressed in this report. In general, we determined that the analyses by Pearson (2011) were appropriate given the data available. We did identify two areas where additional information could have been provided: (1) a more thorough description of model diagnostics and model selection would have been useful for the reader to better understand the model framework; and (2) model uncertainty should have been explicitly described and reported in the document. Stranding probability estimates between the 40- and 43-ft channel depths were minimally different under most of the scenarios that were examined by Pearson (2011), and a discussion of the effects of uncertainty given these minimal differences would have been useful. Ultimately, however, a stochastic (or simulation) model would provide the best opportunity to illustrate uncertainty within a given set of model predictions, but such an approach would require a substantial amount of additional data collection. Several review questions focused on the accuracy and precision of the model estimates, but we were unable to address these questions because of the limited data that currently exists regarding wake stranding in the LCR. Additional field studies will be required to validate findings from Pearson (2011), if concerns regarding accuracy and precision remain a priority. Although the Pearson (2011) model provided a useful examination of stranding under pre-construction and post-construction conditions, future research will be required to better understand the effects of wake stranding on juvenile salmonids throughout the entire LCR. If additional information on wake stranding is desired in the future, the following topics may be of interest: (1) spatial examination of wake stranding throughout the entire LCR; (2) additional evaluation of juvenile salmonid behavior and population dynamics; (3) assessing and integrating predicted changes in ship development; and (4) assessing and integrating predicted changes in climate on environmental factors known to cause stranding.

Oregon;Washington

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

Circular

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Alabama

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States

Seafloor video footage and still-frame grabs from U.S. Geological Survey cruises in Hawaiian nearshore waters

Underwater video footage was collected in nearshore waters (<60-meter depth) off the Hawaiian Islands from 2002 to 2011 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program's Pacific Coral Reef Project, to improve seafloor characterization and for the development and ground-truthing of benthic-habitat maps. This report includes nearly 53 hours of digital underwater video footage collected during four USGS cruises and more than 10,200 still images extracted from the videos, including still frames from every 10 seconds along transect lines, and still frames showing both an overview and a near-bottom view from fixed stations. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) shapefiles of individual video and still-image locations, and Google Earth kml files with explanatory text and links to the video and still images, are included. This report documents the various camera systems and methods used to collect the videos, and the techniques and software used to convert the analog video tapes into digital data in order to process the images for optimum viewing and to extract the still images, along with a brief summary of each survey cruise.

Hawai'i

Science and innovation for battling invasive carp

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the Federal Government’s independent research agency that conducts research to inform management of invasive species. Bighead, black, grass, and silver carp, which are native to China, were originally stocked in aquaculture facilities to control algae, snails, and vegetation. These species have invaded the Mississippi River and are now established throughout the lower and middle Mississippi River Basins and some of its large tributaries where they damage ecosystems and harm economies. A reproducing population of grass carp in Lake Erie is a risk to the $7 billion Great Lakes fishery. The USGS is leading research efforts on risk assessment and on early detection of new invasions. The USGS is also developing and evaluating harvest methods, barriers and deterrents, and baits/attractants to provide Federal and State management agencies the tools needed to manage and reduce populations of these species.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas

Zebra and Quagga mussels in the United States—Dreissenid mussel research by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers high-quality data, technologies, and decision-support tools to help managers both reduce existing populations and control the spread of dreissenid mussels. The USGS researches ecology, biology, risk assessment, and early detection and rapid response methods; provides decision support; and develops and tests control measures.

conterminous United States

National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Pilot Project summary report: Summary of moderate resolution imaging user requirements

Under the National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Project, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a functional capability to obtain, characterize, manage, maintain and prioritize all Earth observing (EO) land remote sensing user requirements. The goal is a better understanding of community needs that can be supported with land remote sensing resources, and a means to match needs with appropriate solutions in an effective and efficient way. The NLIR Project is composed of two components. The first component is focused on the development of the Earth Observation Requirements Evaluation System (EORES) to capture, store and analyze user requirements, whereas, the second component is the mechanism and processes to elicit and document the user requirements that will populate the EORES. To develop the second component, the requirements elicitation methodology was exercised and refined through a pilot project conducted from June to September 2013. The pilot project focused specifically on applications and user requirements for moderate resolution imagery (5–120 meter resolution) as the test case for requirements development. The purpose of this summary report is to provide a high-level overview of the requirements elicitation process that was exercised through the pilot project and an early analysis of the moderate resolution imaging user requirements acquired to date to support ongoing USGS sustainable land imaging study needs. The pilot project engaged a limited set of Federal Government users from the operational and research communities and therefore the information captured represents only a subset of all land imaging user requirements. However, based on a comparison of results, trends, and analysis, the pilot captured a strong baseline of typical applications areas and user needs for moderate resolution imagery. Because these results are preliminary and represent only a sample of users and application areas, the information from this report should only be used to indicate general user needs for the applications covered. Users of the information are cautioned that use of specific numeric results may be inappropriate without additional research. Any information used or cited from this report should specifically be cited as preliminary findings.

Open-File Report

User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that is more likely after wildfires, and while existing hazard assessments evaluate the rainfall intensities that are likely to trigger debris flows, no operational hazard assessment exists for identifying the areas where they will run out after initiation. Fifteen participants who work in a wide range of job functions associated with southern California postfire hazards were selected using purposive sampling for unstructured interviews about useful characteristics and needs for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments. The interview guide was developed by a team of social and physical scientists following best practices for engaging with users. The guide focused on target information that could influence ongoing or not-yet-initiated research on debris-flow physics and hazard assessment methodology. Following standard methods for user needs assessment, the audio from the unstructured interviews was recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic coding scheme. Participants reported engaging with postfire debris-flow inundation as one of multiple postfire hazards and their information needs reflect this breadth. Most participants were from organizations with life and property mandates, and this focused their concerns on where debris-flow inundation could impact people’s physical safety, the ability of populations to egress, and damage to property. Common comments included, (1) the need to interpret inundation hazard assessments in the context of forecast rainfall—which are typically associated with different timeframes, 15 and 60 minutes, respectively; (2) the need to provide multiple scenarios in a hazard assessment to show how the hazard changes under different external factors such as varying rainfall intensity; and (3) the tension between fully reflecting all sources of uncertainty in identifying impacted areas and a high level of precision needed to determine evacuation zones in order to reduce evacuation fatigue. Participants saw utility in both low-resolution hazard assessments over large areas and fine-resolution targeted assessments over small areas, noting that the identification of target areas could pose an ethical challenge because some areas might be prioritized over others. Participants were concerned about the hazard posed by the continuum of postfire hydrologic hazards, including hyperconcentrated flows. Finally, participants recognized that the shrinking time window between the end of fire season and the start of the wet season in southern California makes the production, interpretation, and use of rapid postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments both important and challenging.

California

Changes in ground-water quality in the Canal Creek Aquifer between 1995 and 2000-2001, West Branch Canal Creek area, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Since 1917, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland has been the primary chemical-warfare research and development center for the U.S. Army. Ground-water contamination has been documented in the Canal Creek aquifer because of past disposal of chemical and ordnance manufacturing waste. Comprehensive sampling for volatile organic compounds in ground water by the U.S. Geological Survey in the West Branch Canal Creek area was done in June?October 1995 and June?August 2000. The purpose of this report is (1) to compare volatile organic compound concentrations and determine changes in the ground-water contaminant plumes along two cross sections between 1995 and 2000, and (2) to incorporate data from new piezometers sampled in spring 2001 into the plume descriptions. Along the southern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in 1995 were determined to be highest in the landfill area east of the wetland (5,200 micrograms per liter), and concentrations were next highest deep in the aquifer near the center of the wetland (3,300 micrograms per liter at 35 feet below land surface). When new piezometers were sampled in 2001, higher carbon tetrachloride and chloroform concentrations (2,000 and 2,900 micrograms per liter) were detected deep in the aquifer 38 feet below land surface, west of the 1995 sampling. A deep area in the aquifer close to the eastern edge of the wetland and a shallow area just east of the creek channel showed declines in total volatile organic compound concentrations of more than 25 percent, whereas between those two areas, con-centrations generally showed an increase of greater than 25 percent between 1995 and 2000. Along the northern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in ground water in both 1995 and 2000 were determined to be highest (greater than 2,000 micrograms per liter) in piezometers located on the east side of the section, farthest from the creek channel, and concentrations were progressively lower at piezometer locations closer to the creek channel. Total volatile organic compound concentrations increased more than 25 percent in some areas in the middle depths of the aquifer; however, it could not be determined if a defined plume was moving farther downgradient along ground-water flow paths toward the creek channel, or vertically downward because of density differences within the aquifer.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Alaska landbird montoring survey: Alaska regional protocol framework for monitoring landbirds using point counts

Alaska provides habitat for 143 species of landbirds that occur regularly in the state, about half of which breed predominantly north of the border between the contiguous United States and Canada. The road-based North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides some data on population trends in Alaska, but most northern populations are inadequately monitored by this program because of a paucity of roads. To remedy this deficiency, Boreal Partners in Flight developed the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey (ALMS) to monitor breeding populations of landbirds in off-road areas of Alaska in tandem with data collected from the roadside BBS. The primary objective of ALMS is to monitor long-term population trends of landbirds and other species that can be monitored by diurnal point counts during the breeding season, including many shorebirds and aquatic birds. A secondary objective is to estimate landbird densities by habitat, which can be used to model avian distribution and abundance across Alaska. ALMS is a collaborative program whereby agencies and other entities conduct standardized surveys of breeding birds and their habitats on the lands they manage and then contribute the data to the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center for storage and analysis. The short-term implementation goal of ALMS is to monitor birds systematically within each of 100 randomly selected survey blocks, thereby matching the number of BBS surveys conducted in each of Alaska's five Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). Each block has a mini-grid of 15−25 points that are surveyed biennially, with half of the blocks surveyed in alternating years. Survey blocks are stratified by accessibility and cost-effectiveness. Refuges may opt to limit sites to those accessible by foot, vehicle, boat, or fixed-wing aircraft, as these can be surveyed more inexpensively and reliably over time. Observers survey each point within a survey block for birds using a 10-min point count once per summer on a biennial basis. They collect corresponding habitat data during the first visit and at subsequent 10-year intervals or whenever a disturbance (e.g., fire, wind) has caused a significant change. USGS analyzes ALMS data jointly with BBS data to test for differences between off-road and roadside areas and to increase power to detect statewide trends. Additional blocks can be surveyed in areas that are more difficult and expensive to access as resources become available in the future. Long-term monitoring enables detection of change in bird populations in relation to fire, disease and insect damage, resource development, climate-related change, and other landscape-level disturbances across Alaska. Results from ALMS can also help prioritize conservation and research towards species before they become endangered and require expensive recovery programs.

Alaska

The elusive baseline of marine disease: Are diseases in ocean ecosystems increasing?

Disease outbreaks alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems, directly affecting vertebrates (mammals, turtles, fish), invertebrates (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms), and plants (seagrasses). Previous studies suggest a recent increase in marine disease. However, lack of baseline data in most communities prevents a direct test of this hypothesis. We developed a proxy to evaluate a prediction of the increasing disease hypothesis: the proportion of scientific publications reporting disease increased in recent decades. This represents, to our knowledge, the first quantitative use of normalized trends in the literature to investigate an ecological hypothesis. We searched a literature database for reports of parasites and disease (hereafter “disease”) in nine marine taxonomic groups from 1970 to 2001. Reports, normalized for research effort, increased in turtles, corals, mammals, urchins, and molluscs. No significant trends were detected for seagrasses, decapods, or sharks/rays (though disease occurred in these groups). Counter to the prediction, disease reports decreased in fishes. Formulating effective resource management policy requires understanding the basis and timing of marine disease events. Why disease outbreaks increased in some groups but not in others should be a priority for future investigation. The increase in several groups lends urgency to understanding disease dynamics, particularly since few viable options currently exist to mitigate disease in the oceans.

PLoS Biology

Human behavioral response in the Ridgecrest earthquakes: Assessing immediate actions based on data from “Did You Feel It?”

Human behavioral response to earthquake ground motion has long been a subject of multidisciplinary interest and research. In most versions of seismic intensity scales, human perceptions and behavior are one component of the assignment of intensity. Public health research has shown that actions taken during earthquakes have a significant impact on the incidence of injury or the maintenance of safety. Based on this research, emergency managers and organizations promoting emergency preparedness have advocated strategies such as drop, cover, and hold on (DCHO) and promoted this safety measure through public education and annual drills. The “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) mapping system (see Data and Resources) based on an online questionnaire developed and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey has provided opportunities for those who have experienced an earthquake to report this experience worldwide since 2004. The DYFI questionnaire, although designed to assign intensity, also contains questions regarding the behavior in which one has engaged during the earthquake. The questionnaire includes other important information that may elucidate behavioral response to earthquakes, including assigned intensity, emotional reaction, and whether damage occurred at the location where the earthquake was experienced. The very large number of people who completed DYFI questionnaires following the July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes provides a robust dataset for analysis and suggests that as intensity and levels of fear increase, behavior becomes more active in terms of physical movement to locations of presumed safety. Among active responses including DCHO, going to a doorway, and running outside, DCHO was the least likely to be implemented. The study provides possible explanations for low participation in DCHO despite active campaigns to promote this strategy.

California

Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: A southwestern migration workshop

The importance of migration stopover sites in ensuring that migratory birds successfully accomplish their journeys between breeding and non-breeding ranges has come to the forefront of avian research. Migratory birds that breed in western United States (US) and Canada and overwinter primarily in western Mexico migrate across the arid region of northern Mexico and southwestern US. Many of these migrants use lowland riparian stopover habitats, which comprise less than 0.1% of the western U.S. landscape. These habitats represent a significant conservation priority. Recognizing the importance of migration stopover habitats in the arid southwest, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Region 6 partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to support a project---&ldquo;Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: patterns of geographic and habitat distribution.&rdquo; A primary objective of the project was to convene a workshop for avian researchers, conservation professionals, and land managers involved in stopover needs of migratory birds that breed in western North America. The workshop included presentations on our current state of knowledge regarding passerine migration in western North America, techniques and technologies potentially useful in researching migration, and efforts that agencies and other partners are conducting within the realm of migration. Workshop presentations provided a backdrop for subsequent discussions, the goals of which were to identify research needs and initiate a coordinated approach to research of western migration stopover ecology. Workshop presentations spanned a wide range of concerns and interests. Highlights included indications that mid- and high-elevation riparian and montane shrubland habitats may be as crucial to western migrants in fall migration as lowland riparian habitats are in spring migration. Comparisons of eastern versus western migration systems elucidated large differences in stopover habitats used and the intensity with which certain types are used, underscoring the potential need to develop separate management approaches for eastern and western stopover sites. Presentations on techniques and technology for migration research revealed that rate of lipid deposition can serve as an indicator of habitat quality; that genetics and stable isotope analyses of feathers can be valuable tools to elucidate linkages between breeding and wintering areas; that radar imagery can be used to track large-scale movement patterns and habitat use; and that there are analytical options for combining multiple sources of information. Other presentations focused on partnership perspectives (USFWS and Sonoran Joint Venture), the genesis of a western migration monitoring network, premises of Coordinated Bird Monitoring, and how collaborative efforts could benefit migration research (e.g., combined bird and bat migration studies; linking avian researchers with fluvial geomorphologists; linking research throughout western North America; linking surveys and banding). Priority research needs and questions identified during the open discussions fell into three main categories: (1) habitat/landscape/climate relationships, (2) en route bird distribution patterns, and (3) general migration ecology. Tasks within these categories included: define the relative importance of various habitat types to migrants in spring and fall, determine what distinguishes high- from poor-quality stopover habitat; determine geographic patterns of loss in stopover habitats; model landscape attributes associated with species richness and abundance; identify effects of climate change and current climate anomalies on plant phonologies, associated insect flushes, and timing of migration; and determine effects of hydrologic changes on riparian vegetation, food availability, and stopover habitat quality. Workshop participants discussed a coordinated approach for addressing immediate research needs regarding migration patterns and crucial stopover sites and types. They envisioned a three&shy;-tiered, coordinated approach: (1) long-term research to address effects of climate change and other large-scale patterns, (2) intensive, short-term survey and monitoring efforts using a stratified random design within habitats of interest to elucidate regional patterns of distribution and habitat use, and (3) research conducted at existing survey and banding sites to address more in-depth questions (e.g., rates of lipid deposition, microhabitat use, isotope analyses). There was considerable interest in developing common research proposals to blend the broad expertise represented at this workshop. A second meeting is recommended to build on the momentum of these discussions, to facilitate collaborations, and further the goals of integrated approaches to broadscale research on migration stopover ecology.

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