SEARCH · Geology Reports
Results for “Progress Report”
Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Ground-water resources of the glacial deposits in the Bessemer area, Michigan, 1950
No abstract available.
Remote sensing studies of the geomorphology of Surtsey, 1987-1991
The volcanic island of Surtsey, formed by explosive submarine and effusive subaerial eruptions between November 1963 and June 1967, consists of a complex combination of primary and redeposited tephra and alkaline olivine basalt lava flows in a 2.5 km 2 area (Thorarinsson, 1967; Thorarinsson et al., 1964; Fridriksson, 1975). During the past 24 years, wave and wind erosion of this subaerial mid-ocean ridge (MOR) vent complex have modified Surtsey's coastal morphology, including the deposition of a 0.5 km-long northern peninsula ( ness ) composed of tephra and rounded lava fragments derived from the southern half of the island. Detailed geomorphologic and sedimentologic mapping of the various surface units now present on Surtsey has been accomplished throughout the history of the evolving island, most recently by Calles et al. (1980) and Ingolfsson (1980). On the basis of these studies, an effort to quantify the topographic characteristics of the primary geomorphic units on the island was initiated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 1987. The objective has been to directly measure the microtopographic properties of the widest range of surface types possible, with special emphasis on the pristine or dynamic types. While large-scale topographic maps of Surtsey were prepared in 1968 and 1975 (Norrman, 1980; Norrman and Erlingsson, 1991; Calles et al, 1980), and geodetic leveling surveys have been carried out (Moore, 1980), there have been no recent attempts to geodetically determine the local topography of the island. Because of the rapid rates of geomorphic processes, such as erosion and deposition, on a small, geologically isolated volcanic island such as Surtsey, it is desirable to determine the meter-scale topographic character of its surface units and landforms, and later a remeasurement of the same surfaces to further quantify volumetric change, subsidence, and process rates. In addition, precise measurements of sub-meter-scale topography of pristine geologic surfaces provides necessary data for the investigation of whether various geologic processes demonstrate fractal or self-affine behavior at a range of length-scales within the interval 0.1 in to 1 km. Thus Surtsey offers a unique opportunity to apply new remote sensing techniques to the measurement of the evolving surface "roughness" characteristics of pristine geologic surfaces within an historically well-monitored environment.
Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2019 progress summary
This report describes an Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program designed to maintain the Svalbard population of Pink-footed Geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides recent monitoring and assessment results and their implications for the 2019 hunting season. In this report we provide results for both the set of nine discrete population models used since 2013 and for a recently developed Integrated Population Model (IPM). Updating model weights (set of nine models) and model parameters (IPM) use the most recent monitoring information available (i.e. through spring 2019). We also compare optimal harvest strategies based on the two modeling approaches. Of growing concern, however, has been the observation that the predictive ability of the original population models has declined over time. Going forward, we suggest that use of the IPM is a superior modeling approach for setting hunting seasons for Pink-footed Geese. Population sizes in May as estimated by the IPM are in general agreement with counts and capture-markrecapture estimates but are more precise. Estimates of survival from natural causes were relatively constant over time with a mean of 0.93 and estimates of adult kill rate ranged from 0.04 to 0.13. Estimates of countryspecific kill rates suggest that most of the overall increase in kill rate in recent years is attributed to increasing harvest pressure in Denmark. With respect to productivity, the IPM produced estimates of preseason age ratio that were variable over time, but on average suggested that young constituted about 18% of the population just prior to the hunting season. Estimates of the preseason age ratio correlated well with the number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard. Our results suggest that population size has stabilized because of declining survival rates that have accompanied an increase in kill rates. Adoption of the IPM this year would result in a harvest quota for the 2019 hunting season of 22,000, based on a May population estimate of 76,500 (95% CI: 66,800 – 86,600) and 8 days above freezing in Svalbard. Using the agreed upon allocation of the total allowable harvest, the quotas are 6,600 for Norway and 15,400 for Denmark. Assuming the total quota is met, the IPM predicts a population size in May 2020 of 64,900 (95% CI: 50,300 – 83,700). We note that the updated set of original models used since 2013 suggests an allowable harvest of 40,000 in 2019 based on a November 2018 count of 91,900 geese (comprised of 12,900 young and 79,000 adults). We are skeptical of this large quota, however. Using all available demographic data suggests that the November 2018 population size was lower than that indicated by the count and that the winter population experienced more natural mortality than expected. These insights demonstrate the inherent risk of basing a harvest quota on a single population count, irrespective of other demographic data.
Wind River watershed restoration. Annual report. November 2011 through October 2012
Introduction This report summarizes work by U.S. Geological Survey’s Columbia River Research Laboratory (USGS-CRRL) in the Wind River subbasin, from November 2011 through October 2012. Funding was provided by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) under contract 55275. The primary focus of USGS activities during this time was tagging of parr steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags, and establishing a network of instream PIT tag interrogation systems (PTIS). The PIT-tagged parr steelhead will provide movement and life history data through recapture events and detections at instream PTIS systems, will contribute to estimates of adult steelhead returning to the Wind River, and aid in the evaluation of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek steelhead populations. The Wind River Watershed project (BPA Project Number 1998-019-00) is a collaborative effort to restore wild steelhead in the Wind River, WA. The four partner agencies are the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), USGS-CRRL, and Underwood Conservation District (UCD). This partnership was established in the early 1990s with support from BPA, and has continued to conduct extensive habitat, research, monitoring, and coordination activities across the subbasin. The project works at multiple levels to identify and characterize key limiting habitat factors in the Wind River; restore degraded habitats and watershed processes; document fish populations, life histories, and interactions; investigate efficacy of restoration actions; and to share information across agency and non-agency boundaries. Long-term research in the Wind River has focused on assessments of steelhead/rainbow trout populations, relationships with introduced populations of spring Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis , and effects of habitat variables and habitat restoration on fish productivity. During the period covered by this report, we PIT tagged steelhead parr in headwater sections of the subbasin (Figure 1), maintained a PTIS in Trout Creek, installed a PTIS in the Wind River, and installed smaller scale PTISs in Trapper Creek, Paradise Creek, and the Wind River upstream of Paradise Creek (Figure 2). Additionally we maintained thermologgers to collect water temperature data near the PIT tagging sites. A statement of work (SOW) was submitted to BPA in October 2011 that outlined work to be performed by USGS-CRRL. The SOW was organized by Work Element (WE), with each describing a research task. This report summarizes the progress completed under each WE.
Development of an online reporting format to facilitate the inclusion of ecosystem services into Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program reports
The Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is a program administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. The Secretary of Agriculture is required to submit an annual report to Congress on Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program agreements that, among other things, reports on the progress made towards fulfilling commitments outlined in the agreements. The U.S. Geological Survey developed an online reporting form designed to ensure that consistent information is submitted to the Farm Service Agency from Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program State partners. Combined with the automated importation of text from partner-provided forms to word-processing documents, individual State reports and annual reports to Congress can now be produced efficiently and in a standardized format. Use of a standardized reporting format will also assist the Farm Service Agency in collecting information needed to support ecosystem service quantifications that go beyond the quantifications required from partners to document progress towards meeting the specific purposes and objectives identified in each agreement. Addition of these overarching conservation effect quantifications builds upon past ecosystem services modeling efforts based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs suite of open-source software models; these offer a spatially explicit means to quantify additional ecosystem services across diverse partners in a consistent manner. Data sources are currently available to provide much of the information needed to run these models and complete simulations that would facilitate the quantification and reporting of the societal values of conservation actions taken under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. It is the aim of this report to provide the information needed to move towards widescale monitoring of the Nation’s ecosystem services in a natural accounting framework, similar to the framework used to value financial and human capital.
Wind River watershed restoration, annual report November 2009 to October 2010.
This report summarizes work completed by U.S. Geological Survey’s Columbia River Research Laboratory (USGS-CRRL) in the Wind River subbasin during the period November 2009 through October 2010 under Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) contract 46102. Long term research in the Wind River has focused on assessments of steelhead/rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss populations, interactions with introduced populations of spring Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis, and influences of habitat variables and habitat restoration on fish productivity. During the period covered by this report, we collected water temperature data to characterize variation within and among tributaries and mainstem sections in the Trout Creek watershed, and assisted Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) with smolt trapping and tagging of smolt and parr steelhead with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We also continued to maintain and test efficacy of a passive integrated transponder tag interrogation system (PTIS) in Trout Creek for assessing the adult steelhead runsize. A statement of work (SOW) was submitted to BPA in October 2009 that outlined work to be performed by USGS-CRRL. The SOW was organized by work elements, with each describing a research task. This report summarizes the progress completed under each work element.
State of the art and progress in the earthquake early warning system in Taiwan
We report here the recent progress and future development of real-time seismic monitoring in Taiwan, especially on earthquake early warning system (EWS) developed at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), using the telemetered signals from strong-motion instruments. Utilizing a quick magnitude determination based on the first 10 sec of signals from a virtual and sub-network which is configured automatically, we were able to reduce the earthquake rapid reporting time to about 30 sec or less. This represents a significant step towards a more realistic earthquake early warning capability. This early warning system has been in operation at CWB since 2002. Comprehensive earthquake reports have been issued mostly in less than 30 sec, with an average of about 22 sec from the origin time. At 3 km/sec for a typical crustal shear-wave velocity, the present operation is not useful if an earthquake occurs less than about 70 km from a city, but the lead time will increase to more than 10 sec for cities at distances greater than 100 km from the earthquake source. In the latter case, a lead time of several seconds will allow pre-programmed emergency response to take place prior to the arrival of strong ground shaking. In order to offer earlier warning within an epicentral distance of less than 70 km, a τ c and Pd method was experimented. We used the Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) accelerograms recorded within epicentral distances of less than 30 km from Mw > 5.0 crustal earthquakes. This method uses the first 3-sec length records from the onset of P-waves and could issue an on-site early warning within 10 sec after the event origin time, reducing the radius of the blind zone from 70 to 25 km from the epicenter.
Council monitoring and assessment program (CMAP): A framework for using the monitoring program inventory to conduct gap assessments for the Gulf of Mexico Region
Executive Summary Under the Resources and Ecosystem Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012 (RESTORE Act), the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council) is required to report on the progress of funded projects and programs. Systematic monitoring of restoration at the project-specific and programmatic-levels (watershed and Gulf of Mexico) enables consistent reporting and gives the public confidence that the restoration investments selected by the RESTORE Council will be evaluated and adaptively managed accordingly. Monitoring information that has been collected at different spatial and temporal scales can be used as the foundation to illustrate progress towards comprehensive ecosystem restoration goals and objectives that promote holistic Gulf of Mexico recovery (see ‘RESTORE Council Background’ at the beginning of this report for additional Council information). Currently, federal, state and local agencies, universities, private industry, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are conducting monitoring activities at various scales around the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, each RESTORE Council-funded project will, at a minimum, perform project-specific monitoring. This collection of monitoring activities was inventoried and coordinated into a network of existing programs by the Council-funded RESTORE Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP), which will suggest opportunities for efficiencies and collaborative cross-program review of performance with other Gulf ecosystem recovery efforts. CMAP was designed and funded to inventory and integrate existing monitoring efforts, improve discovery and accessibility of existing monitoring data, and ensure the collected information supports management decisions. The fundamental approach to building the CMAP Gulf of Mexico water quality monitoring, habitat monitoring, and mapping network was to: 1. Adopt, or construct as needed, a comprehensive inventory of existing habitat and water quality observation, monitoring, and mapping programs in the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as the “Inventory”; NOAA and USGS, 2019a); 2. Evaluate the suitability/applicability of each program and its existing and prospective data for use in restoration activities; 3. Develop a process to use the Inventory to conduct gap assessments; 4. Develop a catalog of baseline assessments conducted in the Gulf of Mexico (NOAA and USGS, 2019b); and 5. Develop a searchable monitoring information portal/database to enable access to collected information and products.
Council monitoring and assessment program (CMAP): Common monitoring program attributes and methodologies for the Gulf of Mexico Region
Executive Summary Under the Resources and Ecosystem Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012 (RESTORE Act), the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council) is required to report on the progress of funded projects and programs. Systematic monitoring of restoration at the project-specific and programmatic-levels (i.e., watershed and Gulf of Mexico) enables consistent reporting and gives the public confidence that the restoration investments selected by the RESTORE Council will be evaluated and adaptively managed accordingly. Monitoring information that has been collected at different spatial and temporal scales can be used as the foundation to illustrate progress towards comprehensive ecosystem restoration goals and objectives that promote holistic Gulf of Mexico recovery (see ‘RESTORE Council Background’ at the beginning of this report for additional Council information). Federal, state and local agencies, universities, private industry, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have conducted and are conducting extensive monitoring activities around the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, each RESTORE Council-funded project will, at a minimum, perform project-specific monitoring. This collection of monitoring activities was inventoried and compiled into a framework of tools and resources by the Council-funded RESTORE Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP). CMAP was designed and funded to inventory and integrate existing water quality and habitat monitoring and mapping efforts to support discovery and accessibility of existing monitoring data and ensure the collected information is made available to support management decisions. Results of CMAP Inventory queries can be used to identify opportunities for efficiencies and support crossprogram review of performance across Gulf of Mexico ecosystem recovery efforts. The fundamental approach being used to inform the build out of the CMAP Gulf of Mexico water quality monitoring, habitat monitoring, and mapping framework includes: 1. Adopt, or construct as needed, a comprehensive inventory of existing habitat and water quality observation, monitoring, and mapping programs in the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as the “Inventory”; NOAA and USGS, 2019a); 2. Evaluate the suitability/applicability of each program and its existing and prospective data for use in restoration activities; 3. Develop a process to use the Inventory to conduct gap assessments; 4. Develop a catalog of baseline assessments conducted in the Gulf of Mexico (NOAA and USGS, 2019b); and 5. Develop a searchable monitoring information portal/database to enable access to collected information and products.
Geological Survey research 1978
This U.S. Geological Survey activities report includes a summary of 1978 fiscal year scientific and economic results accompanied by a list of geologic and hydrologic investigations in progress and a report on the status of topographic mapping. The summary of results includes: (1) Mineral and water resources, (2) Engineering geology and hydrology, (3) Regional geology, (4) Principles and processes, (5) Laboratory and field methods, (6) Topographic surveys and mapping, (7) Management of resources on public lands, (8) Land information and analysis, and (9) Investigations in other countries. Also included are lists of cooperating agencies and Geological Survey offices. (Woodard-USGS)
Wind River Watershed Restoration: Annual report April 2006 to March 2007
This report summarizes work completed by U.S. Geological Survey’s Columbia River Research Laboratory (USGS-CRRL) in the Wind River subbasin during the period April 2006 through March 2007 under Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) contract 26922. During this period, we collected temperature, flow, and habitat data to characterize physical habitat condition and variation within and among tributaries and mainstem sections in the Wind River subbasin. We also conducted electrofishing and snorkeling surveys to determine juvenile salmonid populations within select study areas throughout the subbasin. Portions of this work were completed with additional funding from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the Lower Columbia Fish Enhancement Group (LCFEG). Funding from USFWS was for work to contribute to a study of potential interactions between introduced Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and wild steelhead O. mykiss. Funding from LCFEG was for work to evaluate the effects of nutrient enrichment in small streams. A statement of work (SOW) was submitted to BPA in March 2006 that outlined work to be performed by USGS-CRRL. The SOW was organized by work elements, with each describing a research task. This report summarizes the progress completed under each work element.
Geological Survey research 1976
This U.S. Geological Survey activities report includes a summary of recent (1976 fiscal year) scientific and economic results accompanied by a list of geologic and hydrologic investigations in progress and a report on the status of topographic mapping. The summary of results includes: (1) Mineral resources, Water resources, (2) Engineering geology and hydrology, (3) Regional geology, (4) Principles and processes, (5) Laboratory and field methods, (6) Topographic surveys and mapping, (7) Management of resources on public lands, (8) Land information and analysis, and (9) Investigations in other countries. Also included are lists of cooperating agencies and Geological Survey offices.
One minute after: Strong-motion map, effective epicenter, and effective magnitude
This article reports the recent progress on real-time seismic monitoring in Taiwan, particularly the real-time strong-motion monitoring by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau's telemetered seismic network ( CWBSN ), which is presently aiming at rapid reporting immediately after a large earthquake occurrence. If rapid reporting can be achieved before the arrival of the strong shaking, earthquake early warning will become possible. CWBSN has achieved the generation of the intensity map, epicenter, and magnitude within 1 min of the occurrence of a large earthquake. Both rapid reporting and early warning are principally applied to large ( M ≫ 5) events; the requirement of on-scale waveform recording prompted CWBSN in 1995 to integrate strong-motion sensors (e.g., force-balance accelerometers) into its telemetered seismic monitoring system. Time-domain recursive processing is applied to the multi-channel incoming seismic signals by a group of networked personal computers to generate the intensity map. From the isoseismal contours, an effective epicenter is immediately identified that resides in the middle of the largest (usually the 100-gal) contour curve of the intensity map. An effective magnitude is also defined that can be derived immediately from the surface area covered by the largest (usually the 100-gal) contour curve. For a large event with a finite rupture surface, the epicenter and magnitude so derived are more adequate estimates of the source location and of the strength of destruction. The effective epicenter gives the center of the damage area; it stands in contrast with the conventional epicenter location, which only gives the initial point of rupture nucleation. The effective magnitude reflects more closely the earthquake damage potential, instead of the classical magnitude definition that emphasizes the total energy release. The CWBSN has achieved in obtaining the above crucial source information well within 1 min. This time can further be reduced to better than 30 sec, as illustrated by the example in this article, showing that earthquake early warning is indeed an achievable goal. The rapid reporting and early warning information is electronically transmitted to users to allow rapid response actions, with or without further human intervention.
Ecological Investigations of the Federally Endangered Shivwits Milk-Vetch (Astragalus ampullarioides)--2006 Annual Report
Astragalus ampullarioides (Welsh) Welsh, the Shivwits milk-vetch, is an herbaceous perennial legume that was listed as federally endangered in September 2001. Known populations of this edaphic endemic species are restricted to Washington County, Utah, with the majority of occurrences found on gently sloping outcrops of the Triassic Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation at the edge of the Mojave Desert. At the time of listing in 2001, surveys estimated a total of 1000 individuals for the species. In April-May 2006, surveys estimated approximately 4205 individuals distributed among six populations. Of the total number of individuals estimated in spring 2006, over 75 percent were distributed among three subpopulations in Zion National Park and approximately 60 percent occurred at a single 0.3-ha site in the Park. In addition to small population sizes and limited geographic distributions, the species is threatened to varying degrees by urbanization, livestock grazing, off-road vehicle use, and invasive exotic plants. In April 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated ecological investigations of the Shivwits milk-vetch to support conservation management and recovery of the species by the National Park Service (NPS; Zion National Park), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Shivwits Band of the Paiute Tribe, and other cooperators such as The Nature Conservancy of Utah (TNC). To date, funding for this research has been provided by the Southwest Biological Science Center of the USGS Biological Resources Discipline, the USGS-NPS Park-Oriented Biological Support Project, and the Earth Surface Dynamics Program of the USGS Geologic Discipline. Additional logistical support has been provided by the Bureau of Land Management, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. General objectives of this research are (1) to develop a better understanding of species-environment relations to support habitat modelling, future surveys for additional recovery populations, and potential efforts to establish new recovery populations; and (2) to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on habitat conditions and measures of milk-vetch performance. Specific objectives are to: Describe the distribution and abundance of milk-vetch populations and associated invasive exotic plant species within and outside of Zion National Park (Zion NP) in relation to geologic / geomorphic setting, soil properties, and plant community composition. In a field setting in Zion NP, conduct experiments to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on reproductive output and seedling establishment of A. ampullarioides across a gradient of exotic species biomass. Conduct greenhouse studies and analyze soils to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on soil biological properties (including mycorrhizal inocculation potential) that affect cycling and plant uptake of essential mineral nutrients. Based on environmental characteristics of known population locations, use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to prepare a predictive habitat model that can be used to guide future surveys and efforts to evaluate sites for reintroduction efforts. This report describes 2006 progress and future plans for achieving these four objectives.
Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: cooperator report
This document describes progress to date on the development of a harvest‐management strategy for maintaining pink‐footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Many goose populations in western Europe have increased dramatically in recent decades. The Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) is a good example, increasing from about 10 thousand individuals in the early 1960’s to roughly 80 thousand today. Although these geese are a highly valued resource, the growing numbers of geese are causing agricultural conflicts in wintering and staging areas. The African‐Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep‐aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. We compiled relevant demographic and weather data and specified an annual‐cycle model for pink-footed geese that reconciles the different dates of monitoring activities and the timing of harvest-management decisions. We then developed dynamic models for survival and reproductive processes and parameterized them using available data. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, we developed a suite of nine models that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. These nine models varied significantly in their predictions of the harvest required to stabilize current population size, ranging from a low of about 500 to a high of about 17 thousand. For comparison, the harvest in Norway and Denmark was about 11 thousand in 2011 and the population increased from 70 to 80 thousand. We relied on the passive form of adaptive management in formulating a harvest strategy. In passive adaptive management, alternative population models and their associated weights of evidence are explicitly considered in the development of an optimal harvest strategy. Unlike active adaptive management, however, there is no explicit consideration of how harvest management actions could reduce uncertainty as to the most appropriate model of population dynamics. In optimizing a harvest strategy, we assumed equal probabilities for all nine models and assumed relatively course control over harvest. We used a management objective that seeks to maximize sustainable harvest, but avoids harvest decisions that are expected to result in a subsequent population size different than the population goal of 60 thousand. Optimal harvest strategies were calculated using stochastic dynamic programming, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate expected strategy performance. The optimal passive adaptive‐management strategy is expected to maintain mean population size near 60 thousand, regardless of the most appropriate model. However, mean harvest rates and harvests varied substantially depending on the most appropriate model of population dynamics. With an average number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard, optimal harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population to be harvested in autumn) increase rapidly once there are more than about 50 thousand birds in the population. Generally, optimal harvests were on the order of 10 – 20 thousand for population sizes > 60 thousand, and 0 – 5 thousand for population sizes < 60 thousand. For the observations of young of 15.4 thousand and adults of 54.6 thousand in autumn 2010, and 10 days above freezing in May 2011 (a relatively warm spring compared to the average of about 7), the optimal harvest rate in autumn of 2011 would have been 0.16, or a harvest of about 14 thousand. Based on the optimal strategy, hunting‐season closures would be required as the number of adults in the autumn population falls below about 52 thousand, regardless of the number of young in the population. As the number of adults and young decrease, the number of warm days in May required to keep the hunting season open increases. We also investigated the ability of the optimal strategy to stabilize the population at around 60 thousand birds, assuming varying values of the maximum harvest rate that could be implemented. Harvest strategies that contained a maximum harvest rate of 0.16 (equivalent to a harvest of about 17 thousand) were effective at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand within 4‐5 years, regardless of climate scenario. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.12 (harvest ≈ 13 thousand) were also able to stabilize the population near 60 thousand, although it took more time. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.08 (harvest ≈ 8 thousand) were unsuccessful at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand. Continued monitoring of the pink‐footed goose population on an annual basis is critical to an informed harvest management strategy. At a minimum, the ground census in November should be continued to determine population size and proportion of young. Continued estimates of harvest from Norway and Denmark are also necessary to help judge the credibility of the alternative population models. However, an adaptive management process that relies on periodic updating of model weights will depend on acquiring either estimates of the realized harvest rate of adults or the age composition of the harvest. We also recommend that a census conducted during spring migration be operationalized, and that estimates of survival based on mark‐recapture data be updated. Finally, the International Working Group has expressed a desire to adopt a three‐year cycle of decision making related to the regulation of pink‐footed goose harvests. The idea is that once a target harvest level is adopted, it would remain in place for three years, after which time population status would be assessed and a potentially new management action chosen. We have developed a preliminary framework to implement a three‐year cycle using stochastic dynamic programming, and we hope to have it fully operational later this year . We note, however, that application of this 3‐year framework will still require annual resource monitoring and assessments to facilitate learning, and to allow managers the opportunity to respond to any unforeseen change in resource conditions.
Development of an adaptive harvest management program for Taiga bean geese
This report describes recent progress in specifying the elements of an adaptive harvest program for taiga bean goose. It describes harvest levels appropriate for first rebuilding the population of the Central Management Unit and then maintaining it near the goal specified in the AEWA International Single Species Action Plan (ISSAP). This report also provides estimates of the length of time it would take under ideal conditions (no density dependence and no harvest) to rebuild depleted populations in the Western and Eastern Management Units. We emphasize that our estimates are a first approximation because detailed demographic information is lacking for taiga bean geese. Using allometric relationships, we estimated parameters of a thetalogistic matrix population model. The mean intrinsic rate of growth was estimated as r = 0.150 (90% credible interval: 0.120 – 0.182). We estimated the mean form of density dependence as 2.361 (90% credible interval: 0.473 – 11.778), suggesting the strongest density dependence occurs when the population is near its carrying capacity. Based on expert opinion, carrying capacity (i.e., population size expected in the absence of hunting) for the Central Management Unit was estimated as K 87,900 (90% credible interval: 82,000 – 94,100). The ISSAP specifies a population goal for the Central Management Unit of 60,000 – 80,000 individuals in winter; thus, we specified a preliminary objective function as one which would minimize the difference between this goal and population size. Using the concept of stochastic dominance to explicitly account for uncertainty in demography, we determined that optimal harvest rates for 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons were h = 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. These optima represent a tradeoff between the harvest rate and the time required to achieve and maintain a population size within desired bounds. We recognize, however, that regulation of absolute harvest rather than harvest rate is more practical, but our matrix model does not permit one to calculate an exact harvest associated with a specific harvest rate. Approximate harvests for current population size in the Central Management Unit are 0, 1,200, 2,300, and 3,500 for the 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons, respectively. Populations of taiga bean geese in the Western and Eastern Units would require at least 10 and 13 years, respectively, to reach their minimum goals under the most optimistic of scenarios. The presence of harvest, density dependence, or environmental variation could extend these time frames considerably. Finally, we stress that development and implementation of internationally coordinated monitoring programs will be essential to further development and implementation of an adaptive harvest management program.
Activities of the Water Resources Division, California District, fiscal year 1992
This report summarizes the progress of water- resources studies in California by the U.S. Geological Survey during fiscal year 1992. Much of the work was done in cooperation with State and local agencies. Additional supporting funds were transferred from other Federal agencies or appropriated directly to the Geological Survey. The water-resources program in California consisted of 41 projects. This report includes a brief discussion of each project and also contains a brief description of the origin of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Water Resources Division's basic mission, an abbreviated organizational structure of the California District, sources of funding, and a summary of water conditions. Also included is a listing of reports published during fiscal year 1992.