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USGS2022

Association of antler asymmetry with hoof disease in elk

Treponeme-associated hoof disease (TAHD) is an emergent disease of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Pacific West of the United States. Although lesions are usually restricted to the feet, anecdotal reports suggested increased prevalence of abnormal antlers in affected elk. We used hunter harvest reports for 1,688 adult male elk harvested in southwestern Washington, USA, during 2016-2018, to evaluate anecdotal reports. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to compare 18 logistic regression models describing the prevalence of asymmetrical antlers, indicated by unequal antler point counts. Our leading model (84% of model weight) described additive effects of TAHD (odds ratio = 1.91; 95% CI = [1.49, 2.44]) and maximum number of antler points. Confidence intervals overlapped zero for all other parameters, which described ecotypic, geographic, and age-related effects. Effects of physical injury on antler development have been described elsewhere; however, injuries leading to instances of antler deformity do not have population-level management implications. In contrast, we describe effects of a transmissible disease that was reported by hunters in >35% of adult male elk and was associated with an increase of ≥16 percentage points in the prevalence of gross asymmetry. Unequal point counts are quite common in elk with otherwise typical antlers and seem unlikely to attract public notice or be attributed to hoof lesions; thus, we suspect our results and anecdotal reports reflect more prominent deformities that are important to stakeholders who enjoy hunting and wildlife viewing.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Sampling for disease surveillance: Assessing effects on blue-winged teal survival and recovery

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild animals highlight the need for disease surveillance in wild birds to improve our understanding of their role as reservoirs and dispersers, and potential threats to domestic poultry and wild bird populations. Surveillance for avian influenza varies in its approach, objectives, and coordination with other monitoring efforts. For waterfowl, a common host to avian influenza viruses, banding represents a concerted effort of capturing and marking thousands of individuals annually to estimate survival and harvest rates, but users of these data have generally taken a conservative approach to remove any banded birds from analyses that had a sample taken for disease surveillance during capture. We tested for differences in survival and encounter probabilities of blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ) marked ( n = 21,702 teal) and sampled for disease surveillance ( n = 4,216) during the nonbreeding season in Louisiana, USA, from 2016 to 2023. Although we found no consistent effect of collecting biological samples on survival probability, including an additional test showing no detectable effects of sampling for disease surveillance with oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs versus sampling with swabs and a syringe-drawn blood sample, wide 95% credible intervals on the posterior survival estimates (mean 0.36 difference between upper and lower values across all year-sex-sampling groups; 0.44 for sampling type groups) indicated low statistical power to detect an effect. Seber recovery probability during the first interval following sampling was lower among birds sampled using swabs only, but we assume this stems from low sample sizes rather than an effect of collecting biological samples. Because recovery probabilities can vary as a function of individual covariates, we also examined direct recovery probabilities and observed no meaningful effect of disease surveillance sampling type but strong effects of capture date, suggesting the effect on Seber recovery probability may have been due to heterogeneity in exposure to natural and harvest mortality risks. Although we suggest that aligning disease surveillance sample collection efforts with landscape-scale waterfowl banding efforts may have little effect on observed demographic rates, additional studies with larger sample sizes are likely needed to provide the statistical power necessary to formally conclude no effect of biological sampling on survival probabilities.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Mortality patterns and detection bias from carcass data: An example from wolf recovery in Wisconsin

We developed models and provide computer code to make carcass recovery data more useful to wildlife managers. With these tools, wildlife managers can understand the spatial, temporal (e.g., across time periods, seasons), and demographic patterns in mortality causes from carcass recovery datasets. From datasets of radio-collared and non-collared carcasses, managers can calculate the detection bias by mortality cause in a non-collared carcass dataset compared to a collared carcass dataset. As a first step, we provide a standard procedure to assign mortality causes to carcasses. We provide an example of these methods for radio-collared wolves ( n  = 208) and non-collared wolves ( n  = 668) found dead in Wisconsin (1979–2012). We analyzed differences in mortality cause relative to season, age and sex classes, wolf harvest zones, and recovery phase (1979–1995: initial recovery, 1996–2002: early growth, 2003–2012: late growth). Seasonally, illegal kills and natural deaths were proportionally higher in winter (Oct–Mar) than summer (Apr–Sep) for collared wolves, whereas vehicle strikes and legal kills were higher in summer than winter. Spatially, more illegally killed collared wolves occurred in eastern wolf harvest zones where wolves reestablished more slowly and in the central forest region where optimal habitat is isolated by agriculture. Natural mortalities of collared wolves (e.g., disease, intraspecific strife, or starvation) were highest in western wolf harvest zones where wolves established earlier and existed at higher densities. Calculating detection bias in the non-collared dataset revealed that more than half of the non-collared carcasses on the landscape are not found. The lowest detection probabilities for non-collared carcasses (0.113–0.176) occurred in winter for natural, illegal, and unknown mortality causes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Applying a Bayesian weighted surveillance approach to detect chronic wasting disease in white‐tailed deer

Surveillance is critical for early detection of emerging and re‐emerging infectious diseases. Weighted surveillance leverages heterogeneity in infection risk to increase sampling efficiency. Here, we apply a Bayesian approach to estimate weights for 16 surveillance classes of white‐tailed deer in Wisconsin, USA, relative to hunter‐harvested yearling males. We used these weights to conduct a surveillance programme for detecting chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white‐tailed deer at Shenandoah National Park (SHEN) in Virginia, USA. Generally, for surveillance, risk of infection increased with age and was greater in males. Clinical suspect deer had the highest risk, with weight estimates of 33.33 and 9.09 for community‐reported and hunter‐reported suspect deer, respectively. Fawns had the lowest risk with an estimated weight of 0.001. We used surveillance weights for Wisconsin deer to determine sampling effort required to detect a CWD‐positive case in SHEN if prevalence in yearling males ≥0.025. The sampling required to detect CWD was 37–91 adult deer, depending on the adult male:female ratio in the surveillance stream. We collected rectal biopsies from 49 female and 21 male adult deer, and 10 additional samples from vehicle‐killed deer. CWD was not detected and we concluded with 95% probability that prevalence in the reference population (yearling males) was between 0.0% and 3.6%. Synthesis and applications . Our approach allows managers to estimate relative surveillance weights for different host classes and quantify limits of disease detection in real time when only a sample of animals from a population can be tested, resulting in considerable cost savings for agencies performing wildlife disease detection surveillance. Additionally, it provides a rigorous means of estimating prevalence limits when a disease/pathogen is not detected in a sample set. It is therefore applicable to other wildlife, domestic animal and human disease systems, which can be characterized by surveillance classes with heterogeneous probability of infection. This methodology is also extendable to other disciplines such as invasive species, environmental toxicology, and generally, any ecological question seeking to efficiently use scarce financial and human resources to maximize the detection probability of a rare event.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Outside the box: Working with wildlife in biocontainment

Research with captive wildlife in Animal Biosafety Level 2 (ABSL2) and 3 (ABSL3) facilities is becoming increasingly necessary as emerging and re-emerging diseases involving wildlife have increasing impacts on human, animal, and environmental health. Utilizing wildlife species in a research facility often requires outside the box thinking with specialized knowledge, practices, facilities, and equipment. The USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) houses an ABSL3 facility dedicated to understanding wildlife diseases and developing tools to mitigate their impacts on animal and human health. This review presents considerations for utilizing captive wildlife for infectious disease studies, including, husbandry, animal welfare, veterinary care, and biosafety. Examples are drawn from primary literature review and collective 40-year experience of the NWHC. Working with wildlife in ABSL2 and ABSL3 facilities differs from laboratory animals in that typical laboratory housing systems, husbandry practices, and biosafety practices are not designed for work with wildlife. This requires thoughtful adaptation of standard equipment and practices, invention of customized solutions and development of appropriate enrichment plans using the natural history of the species and the microbiological characteristics of introduced and native pathogens. Ultimately, this task requires critical risk assessment, understanding of the physical and psychological needs of diverse species, creativity, innovation, and flexibility. Finally, continual reassessment and improvement are imperative in this constantly changing specialty area of infectious disease and environmental hazard research.

ILAR Journal↗

USGS2019

Modeling elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk to predict hotspots of brucellosis spillover

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human‐wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the presence of brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) in free‐ranging elk ( Cervus canadensis ) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. We identified how spillover risk changes through space and time by developing resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence daily during the transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and transmission timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated our predictions of transmission risk with spatiotemporal data on areas of potential livestock use to estimate the daily risk to livestock. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission risk occurred on areas where livestock may be present (i.e., private property or grazing allotments). Of the transmission risk that occurred in livestock areas, 98% of it was on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Disease prevalence, transmission timing, host abundance, and host distribution were all important factors in determining the potential for spillover risk. Our fine‐resolution (250‐m spatial, 1‐day temporal), large‐scale (17,732 km 2 ) predictions of potential elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

Montana↗

USGS1995

Mycotoxin-induced disease in captive whooping cranes (Grus americana) and sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis)

In 1987, an epizootic in cranes at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland, USA, caused illness in 80% of 300 captive whooping cranes (Grus americana) and sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) and death of 15 of these cranes. Gross pathology findings were inconclusive and consisted of dehydration, atrophy of fat, renal insufficiency, and small spleens. Extensive testing resulted in isolation of Fusarium sp. mold from constituents of the grain-based diet. Low levels of two mycotoxins, T2 (1-2 ppm) and deoxynivalenol (0.4 ppm), were isolated from the pelleted feed.

Maryland↗

USGS2014

Sex-biased gene flow among elk in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

We quantified patterns of population genetic structure to help understand gene flow among elk populations across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We sequenced 596 base pairs of the mitochondrial control region of 380 elk from eight populations. Analysis revealed high mitochondrial DNA variation within populations, averaging 13.0 haplotypes with high mean gene diversity (0.85). The genetic differentiation among populations for mitochondrial DNA was relatively high ( F ST = 0.161; P = 0.001) compared to genetic differentiation for nuclear microsatellite data ( F ST = 0.002; P = 0.332), which suggested relatively low female gene flow among populations. The estimated ratio of male to female gene flow ( m m / m f = 46) was among the highest we have seen reported for large mammals. Genetic distance (for mitochondrial DNA pairwise F ST ) was not significantly correlated with geographic (Euclidean) distance between populations (Mantel's r = 0.274, P = 0.168). Large mitochondrial DNA genetic distances (e.g., F ST > 0.2) between some of the geographically closest populations (<65 km) suggested behavioral factors and/or landscape features might shape female gene flow patterns. Given the strong sex-biased gene flow, future research and conservation efforts should consider the sexes separately when modeling corridors of gene flow or predicting spread of maternally transmitted diseases. The growing availability of genetic data to compare male vs. female gene flow provides many exciting opportunities to explore the magnitude, causes, and implications of sex-biased gene flow likely to occur in many species.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2019

Tools to understand seasonality in health: quantification of microbe loads and analyses of compositional ecoimmunological data reveal complex patterns in Mojave Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations

Using data from six wild Mojave Desert Tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii (Cooper, 1861)) populations, we quantified seasonal differences in immune system measurements and microbial load in the respiratory tract, pertinent to this species’ susceptibility to upper respiratory tract disease. We quantified bacteria-killing activity of blood plasma and differential leukocyte counts to detect trends in temporal variation in immune function. We used centered log-ratio (clr) transformations of leukocyte counts and stress that such transformations are necessary for compositional data. We tested animals for the potential pathogen Pasteurella testudinis Snipes and Biberstein, 1982 with a newly created quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay, as well as for the known respiratory pathogens Mycoplasma agassizii Brown et al., 2001 and Mycoplasma testudineum Brown et al., 2004. We found very little disease and suggest that P. testudinis is a prevalent, commensal microbe in these Mojave Desert Tortoise populations, and its quantification may be a tool to study natural fluctuations in microbe levels in Mojave Desert Tortoise respiratory tracts. Our analyses showed that both the potential for inflammatory responses and microbe levels are highest in the spring for healthy Mojave Desert Tortoises, when lymphocyte levels are lowest. The genetic and statistical tools that we used are easily applicable to other wildlife systems and provide the necessary data to quantify species-wide trends in health and test hypotheses pertinent to host–microbe dynamics.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

USGS1984

Disseminated visceral coccidiosis in sandhill cranes

Disseminated visceral coccidiosis (DVC) caused by Eimeria spp was first recognized as a disease entity in captive sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) and whooping cranes (G americana) at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Because cranes produced at the Center are reintroduced to the wild to augment wild populations, studies involving both experimentally induced and natural infections were initiated to determine the potential or actual occurrence of DVC in wild Gruidae. Nine sandhill cranes dosed orally with eimerian oocysts of wild origin developed lesions characteristic of DVC. Extraintestinal granulomas associated with developing schizonts were found in 6 birds. Similar lesions were observed in wild sandhill cranes throughout parts of midwestern United States, Alaska, and Saskatchewan. These studies revealed the wide geographic distribution and the high frequency of occurrence of DVC in wild cranes.

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Associa↗

USGS2017

Pneumonia in bighorn sheep: Risk and resilience

Infectious disease was an important driver of historic declines and extirpations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in North America and continues to impede population restoration and management. Domestic sheep have long been linked to pneumonia outbreaks in bighorn sheep and this association has now been confirmed in 13 captive commingling experiments. However, ecological and etiological complexities still hinder our understanding and control of the disease. We provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about the biology and management of respiratory disease in bighorn sheep and propose strategies for moving forward. Epizootic pneumonia in bighorn sheep is polymicrobial. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a bacterium host-specific to Caprinae and commonly carried by healthy domestic sheep and goats appears to be a necessary primary agent. All-age epizootics following introduction of M. ovipneumoniae along with other pathogens into bighorn sheep populations are usually severe (median mortality 47%) but fatality rates vary widely, from 15 – 100%. Disease severity may be influenced by the strain of M. ovipneumoniae, by secondary bacterial and viral pathogens, and by factors affecting transmission and host immunity. Once introduced, M. ovipneumoniae can persist in bighorn sheep populations for decades. Carrier dams transmit the pathogen to their susceptible lambs, triggering fatal pneumonia outbreaks in nursery groups, which limits recruitment and slows or prevents population recovery. The result is that demographic costs of pathogen persistence often outweigh the impacts of the initial invasion and die-off. There is currently no effective vaccine or antibiotic for domestic or wild sheep and to date, no management actions have been successful in reducing morbidity, mortality, or disease spread once pathogen invasion has occurred. Molecular-based strain typing suggests that spillover of M. ovipneumoniae into bighorn sheep populations from domestic small ruminants is ongoing, and that consequences of pathogen invasion are amplified by movements of infected bighorn sheep. Therefore, current disease management strategies focus on reducing risk of spillover from reservoir populations of domestic small ruminants and on limiting transmission among bighorn sheep. A broad array of approaches has been tried and more are needed to prevent pathogen introduction, induce disease fadeout in persistently infected populations, and promote population resilience across the diverse landscapes bighorn sheep inhabit. A comprehensive examination of disease dynamics across populations could help elucidate how disease fades out naturally and if population resilience can be increased in the face of infection. Cross-jurisdictional adaptive management experiments and transdisciplinary collaboration, including partnerships with members of the domestic sheep and goat community, are needed to facilitate innovation and speed progress towards sustainable solutions for managing pneumonia to protect and restore bighorn sheep populations.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto↗

USGS2019

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS1965

Some diseases and parasites of captive woodcocks

Observations were made concerning the diseases and parasites of a group of woodcocks ( Philohela minor ) caught in Massachusetts in the summer of 1960 and kept in captivity in Maryland, and of another group caught and kept in Louisiana in the winter of 1960-61. Bumblefoot, a granulomatous swelling of the foot caused by Micrococcus sp., is reported for woodcocks for the first time. Six of 31 woodcocks were infected with a renal coccidium of an undetermined species. Tetrameres sp. was found in 4 of 31 birds examined. Sarcocystis was found in one bird. Aerosaculitis was found in several.

Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts↗

USGS2011

Population viability analysis to identify management priorities for reintroduced elk in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee

We used an individual-based population model to perform a viability analysis to simulate population growth (λ) of 167 elk ( Cervus elaphus manitobensis ; 71 male and 96 female) released in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee, to estimate sustainability (i.e., λ > 1.0) and identify the most appropriate options for managing elk restoration. We transported elk from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, and from Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky, and reintroduced them beginning in December 2000 and ending in February 2003. We estimated annual survival rates for 156 radio-collared elk from December 2000 until November 2004. We used data from a nearby elk herd in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to simulate pessimistic and optimistic recruitment and performed population viability analyses to evaluate sustainability over a 25-year period. Annual survival averaged 0.799 (Total SE = 0.023). The primary identifiable sources of mortality were poaching, disease from meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ), and accidents (environmental causes and unintentional harvest). Population growth given pessimistic recruitment rates averaged 0.895 over 25 years (0.955 in year 1 to 0.880 in year 25); population growth was not sustainable in 100% of the runs. With the most optimistic estimates of recruitment, mean λ increased to 0.967 (1.038 in year 1 to 0.956 in year 25) with 99.6% of the runs failing to be sustainable. We suggest that further translocation efforts to increase herd size will be ineffective unless survival rates are increased in the Cumberland Mountains.

Tennessee↗

USGS2025

Between a rock and a hard place: Experiences of the chronic wasting disease management community

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a widespread and incurable cervid disease. Despite continuing investments, the logistical challenges of CWD have required wildlife managers and researchers to navigate changing priorities with conflicting public perceptions. When overcoming difficult management problems, leveraging exploratory methods may identify previously unrecognized hypotheses. In this study, we interviewed wildlife managers and researchers to describe the diverse experiences of experts in the CWD management community. Our study asked about common management strategies used, challenges experienced, and attempted to understand how decision-making in CWD management is shaped and constrained. Our study participants experienced a wide range of constraining factors, primarily related to external influences. We also identified connections between these constraints and a common concern for staff and public burnout. The results of this study provide insight on constraints limiting CWD management success and possible explanations for some commonly recognized challenges resulting from social and ecological interactions.

Journal of Society and Natural Resources↗

USGS2002

Survival of Columbian white-tailed deer in western Oregon

Columbian white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus leucurus; CWTD) are an endangered subspecies on which little demographic information exists. We determined survival rates and causes of mortality for 64 radiocol- lared adults from 1996 to 1998, and for 63 radiocollared neonatal fawns during the summer and fall months of 1996-2001 in Douglas County, Oregon, USA. Annual adult survival rates averaged 0.74 over 3 years, and most mor- tality (73%) occurred between fall and winter. Seasonal survival was lowest (0.75) for the fall-winter 1997-1998, and was 20.90 during all spring-summer periods. Annual and seasonal survival rates did not differ by gender. Average annual survival was 0.77 for deer in wildland areas compared with 0.66 for deer in suburban areas, but these dif- ferences were not consistent between years and seasons. Survival over the entire 3-year study was low (0.38). Eight deer died from a combination of emaciation and disease, and almost all (92%) necropsied deer were in poor body condition. Fawn survival to 7 months was low (0.14, 95% CI = 0.02-0.26) and declined most rapidly during the first 1.5 months of life. Predation (n = 21) and abandonment (n = 6) were the most frequent known causes of death for fawns. Our results suggest that CWTD may have responded to density-dependent factors during this short-term study, although the effects of other environmental or intrinsic factors cannot be ignored. Fawn survival may be insufficient to produce enough recruits for population growth and eventual range expansion.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1979

A bibliography of references to avian cholera

Mrs. Wilson has made a genuine effort to include in this bibliography every significant reference to avian cholera since Louis Pasteur's articles appeared in 1880, although she recognizes the likelihood that a few have been overlooked. New listings have been added throughout 1978, but comprehensive coverage of the literature cannot be claimed beyond June of that year. Textbook accounts, because they are generally summaries of work published elsewhere, are excluded. Papers dealing primarily with the biology of Pasteurella multocida , as opposed to the disease it induces in birds, are also excluded, unless they report information of diagnostic usefulness. Short abstracts are not included unless the journals in which they are published are more widely available than those in which the complete articles appear or they are English summaries of foreign language articles. In compiling this bibliography, Mrs. Wilson has made extensive use of Biological Abstracts, the Pesticide Documentation Bulletin, and printouts generated by Bibliographic Retrieval Services, Inc. The "Literature Cited" sections of textbooks and journal articles pertinent to the subject were sources of many additional references. Regardless of the origin of the citation, its accuracy was confirmed by comparison with the original publication, except in those few instances (marked with an asterisk) when the journal was not on the shelves of the libraries accessible to us. The author will be grateful to users of the bibliography who point out errors or omissions. Wayne I. Jensen Microbiologist In Charge

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗

USGS2011

Spread of plague among black-tailed prairie dogs is associated with colony spatial characteristics

Sylvatic plague ( Yersinia pestis ) is an exotic pathogen that is highly virulent in black‐tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) and causes widespread colony losses and individual mortality rates >95%. We investigated colony spatial characteristics that may influence inter‐colony transmission of plague at 3 prairie dog colony complexes in the Great Plains. The 4 spatial characteristics we considered include: colony size, Euclidean distance to nearest neighboring colony, colony proximity index, and distance to nearest drainage (dispersal) corridor. We used multi‐state mark–recapture models to determine the relationship between these colony characteristics and probability of plague transmission among prairie dog colonies. Annual mapping of colonies and mark–recapture analyses of disease dynamics in natural colonies led to 4 main results: 1) plague outbreaks exhibited high spatial and temporal variation, 2) the site of initiation of epizootic plague may have substantially influenced the subsequent inter‐colony spread of plague, 3) the long‐term effect of plague on individual colonies differed among sites because of how individuals and colonies were distributed, and 4) colony spatial characteristics were related to the probability of infection at all sites although the relative importance and direction of relationships varied among sites. Our findings suggest that conventional prairie dog conservation management strategies, including promoting large, highly connected colonies, may need to be altered in the presence of plague.

Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, New Mexico↗