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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Three Mw ≥ 4.7 earthquakes within the Changning (China) shale gas field ruptured shallow faults intersecting with hydraulic fracturing wells

From 2017 to 2019, three destructive earthquakes (27 January 2017 Mw 4.7, 16 December 2018 Mw 5.2, and 3 January 2019 Mw 4.8) occurred in the Changning shale gas field in the southwest Sichuan Basin, China. Previous seismological studies attributed these events to hydraulic fracturing (HF), but were unable to identify the causative seismogenic faults and their slip behaviors. Here, we use Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar data to measure surface deformation triggered by the three events and conduct geodetic inversions to characterize their rupture models. The resulting coseismic interferograms show prominent surface deformation with the maximum line-of-sight displacements of up to 4 cm. The inversion results show that all three earthquakes mainly ruptured sedimentary formations above the shale gas bed, in the upper 3 km of the crust, with slip magnitudes ranging from 8.5 to 15 cm, and stress drops ranging from ∼1.8 to ∼3.3 MPa. Their source faults intersect with horizontal HF wells, but do not root in the crystalline basement. Combined with the reported difficulty of increasing HF operation pressures prior to the three events, we argue that they were most likely induced by direct injection of pressurized fluids into the fault zones. Crustal deformation patterns inferred from regional topography and GPS velocities highlight that the Changning field is located within a triple junction region near the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau with large deformation gradients; such conditions are not only favorable to the development of critically stressed faults, but also facilitate the occurrence of at least moderate magnitude earthquakes.

Changning shale gas field, Sichuan Basin↗

USGS2022

Possible effects of multiphase methane evolution during a glacial cycle on underpressure development in sedimentary basins: An analysis with application to the northeast Michigan Basin

In low-permeability systems, groundwater may be accompanied by separate-phase fluids, and measured pore water pressures may deviate from those expected in steady-state, single-phase systems. These same systems may be of interest for storage of nuclear waste in Deep Geologic Repositories. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationship between the presence of a separate phase and anomalous pressure development. At the Bruce site in Southern Ontario, a significant underpressure was observed, and there is evidence for the presence of gas-phase methane in situ. This study used a one-dimensional (vertical) numerical model of the subsurface down to a depth of 844 m beneath the Bruce site to evaluate possible effects of hydromechanical coupling with multiphase flow on pressure evolution during glacial loading and unloading. The simulated pressure conditions were affected strongly by the amount of methane initially present in the system, and the maximum simulated underpressure varied nonmonotonically with increasing initial methane content. When the initial methane content was below the solubility limit, exsolution led to underpressures that briefly exceeded those that formed in the single-phase case. At intermediate initial methane contents (sufficient to produce an immobile gas phase), the gas phase dampened the hydromechanical effects of the glacial cycle. At large initial methane contents (when a mobile gas phase was present), gas migration caused a large decrease in relative liquid permeability, which further contributed to underpressure development in the pore water. Multiple scenarios that spanned a range of initial methane contents yielded underpressures like those observed at the Bruce site.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

Moderate rates of late Quaternary slip along the northwestern margin of the Basin and Range Province, Surprise Valley fault, northeastern California

The 86-km-long Surprise Valley normal fault forms part of the active northwestern margin of the Basin and Range province in northeastern California. We use trench mapping and radiocarbon, luminescence, and tephra dating to estimate displacements and timing of the past five surface-rupturing earthquakes on the central part of the fault near Cedarville. A Bayesian OxCal analysis of timing constraints indicates earthquake times of 18.2 ± 2.6, 10.9 ± 3.2, 8.5 ± 0.5, 5.8 ± 1.5, and 1.2 ± 0.1 ka. These data yield recurrence intervals of 7.3 ± 4.1, 2.5 ± 3.2, 2.7 ± 1.6, and 4.5 ± 1.5 ka and an elapsed time of 1.2 ± 0.1 ka since the latest surface-rupturing earthquake. Our best estimate of latest Quaternary vertical slip rate is 0.6 ?? 0.1 mm/a. This late Quaternary rate is remarkably similar to long-term (8-14 Ma) minimum vertical slip rates (>0.4-0.5 ± 0.3 mm/a) calculated from recently acquired seismic reflection and chronologic and structural data in Surprise Valley and the adjacent Warner Mountains. However, our slip rate yields estimates of extension that are lower than recent campaign GPS determinations by factors of 1.5-4 unless the fault has an unusually shallow (30°-35°) dip as suggested by recently acquired seismic reflection data. Coseismic displacements of 2-4.5 ± 1 m documented in the trench and probable rupture lengths of 53-65 km indicate a history of latest Quaternary earthquakes of M 6.8-7.3 on the central part of the. Surprise Valley fault.

California↗

USGS2012

Thermal and hydrologic suitability of Lake Erie and its major tributaries for spawning of Asian carps

Bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis , silver carp H. molitrix , and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella (hereafter Asian carps) have expanded throughout the Mississippi River basin and threaten to invade Lakes Michigan and Erie. Adult bighead carp and grass carp have been captured in Lake Erie, but self-sustaining populations probably do not exist. We examined thermal conditions within Lake Erie to determine if Asian carps would mature, and to estimate time of year when fish would reach spawning condition. We also examined whether thermal and hydrologic conditions in the largest tributaries to western and central Lake Erie were suitable for spawning of Asian carps. We used length of undammed river, predicted summer temperatures, and predicted water velocity during flood events to determine whether sufficient lengths of river are available for spawning of Asian carps. Most rivers we examined have at least 100 km of passable river and summer temperatures suitable (> 21 C) for rapid incubation of eggs of Asian carps. Predicted water velocity and temperature were sufficient to ensure that incubating eggs, which drift in the water column, would hatch before reaching Lake Erie for most flood events in most rivers if spawned far enough upstream. The Maumee, Sandusky, and Grand Rivers were predicted to be the most likely to support spawning of Asian carps. The Black, Huron, Portage, and Vermilion Rivers were predicted to be less suitable. The weight of the evidence suggests that the largest western and central Lake Erie tributaries are thermally and hydrologically suitable to support spawning of Asian carps.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2021

The structure and volume of large geysers in Yellowstone National Park, USA and the mineralogy and chemistry of their silica sinter deposits

Siliceous sinter is formed by biogenic and abiogenic opal deposition around hot springs and geysers. Using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry we generated three-dimensional models of Giant and Castle Geysers from the Upper Geyser Basin of Yellowstone National Park. We use these models to calculate an approximate mass of sinter for each (~2 and ~ 5 kton, respectively) and estimate a range of plausible long-term deposition rates for Castle Geyser (470 to 940 kg·yr −1 ). We estimate ~2% of the silica discharged from Castle Geyser is deposited as sinter in the cone and proximal terraces. We collected 15 sinter samples following the stratigraphy of each geyser from an older terrace to a younger cone and examined them using a variety of analytical methods. We find that young opaline sinter with a water content of <12 wt% (from loss on ignition) contains higher concentrations of major and trace elements, notably As, Sb, Rb, Ga and Cs, relative to older dehydrated sinter. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations in sinter are 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in the thermal water from which they are deposited. Sinter deposits are enriched in light REE, Gd and Yb when normalized to concentrations in thermal water and enriched in Eu, Tm, and Yb when normalized to the underlying rhyolite. Sinter samples with the highest REE concentrations are also enriched in organic material, implying either microbial uptake of REE, or that organic molecules are efficient ligands that form metal complexes.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Assessing the risk of diploid grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in the certified triploid supply chain in Ohio

Non-native grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) have been stocked in the United States for vegetation control since the 1970s, and recent evidence suggests some natural reproduction in the Great Lakes basin. Despite all states and provinces bordering Lake Erie either banning grass carp or requiring imports of only sterile, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS)-certified triploids, the majority of grass carp captured and analyzed from Lake Erie are diploid, or reproductively viable. Potential sources of diploid grass carp include illegal importation, compromises in the USFWS-certified triploid shipments, migration from legal diploid states, or natural reproduction resulting from diploid stockings prior to the 1988 Ohio law requiring only certified triploids. The goal of this study was to explore the risk that diploid grass carp occur in the USFWS-certified triploid supply chain destined for Ohio. During 2015 and 2016, undercover Ohio Department of Natural Resources-Division of Wildlife law enforcement purchased 1200 grass carp from 16 distributors, and overnighted 80 dissected grass carp head and eyeball sample shipments (n = 15 fish per shipment) for ploidy analysis by flow cytometry. Standardized methods for both field and laboratory processing were established. No diploid grass carp were detected in these collections, indicating fidelity of the USFWS-certified triploid grass carp supply chain in Ohio. Thus, these shipments are not a likely source of diploid grass carp in Lake Erie. This study is the first large-scale evaluation of the potential for ecological risk from diploid grass carp occurrence in USFSW-certified shipments of triploids for national distribution.

Ohio↗

USGS2024

Documentation of a probable spawning run of cisco Coregonus artedi in the Spanish River, Ontario, Canada

Coregonines were historically diverse and abundant in the Laurentian Great Lakes but declined throughout the 19th and 20th centuries due to multiple factors, including overfishing, habitat degradation, and interactions with invasive species. Great Lakes fishery managers are now working to restore coregonines across the basin. An important aspect of restoration efforts is the identification of key habitats, such as spawning habitats. Our understanding of the extent and diversity of coregonine spawning habitats in the Great Lakes is limited. Historical accounts suggest some cisco Coregonus artedi migrated to tributaries to spawn, but contemporary runs have not been reported. Moreover, cisco display considerable phenotypic variation, with different “forms” often occupying specific habitats or regions. We provide evidence for a previously undocumented spawning run of cisco in the Spanish River, a tributary to the North Channel of Lake Huron. We captured 31 mature and ripe fish (25 males, 6 females) approximately 52 km upstream of the river mouth on 15–16 November 2022. The fish ranged in age from 3-9 yr and total length from 287-394 mm. Of these 31 individuals, 27 were morphologically similar to C. artedi manitoulinus , a subspecies of cisco found in the North Channel; however, four individuals more closely resembled cisco captured in other areas of Lake Huron. These findings represent the best evidence of tributary spawning by cisco since the 1880s, and they have important implications for coregonine conservation and restoration efforts. Ongoing work aims to augment our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary importance of this population.

Ontario↗

USGS1995

Concentrations of dissolved and particulate Polychlorinated Biphenyls in water from the Saginaw River, Michigan

The Saginaw River receives water from a major drainage basin in the east-central portion of the lower peninsula of Michigan. Historically the river has been contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from several sources. The present study was conducted to determine the concentrations of PCBs in both the dissolved and particulate phases of water in the lower Saginaw River, as well as the relative contribution of PCBs from the lower portion of the river relative to more upstream locations. Water samples were collected in 1990–1991, during a range of discharge conditions. Suspended particulates were collected from water onto glass-fiber filters by use of a “Penta-plate” filtration apparatus. Filtered water was subsequently passed through XAD-2 macroreticular resin to collect the “dissolved” PCBs. Concentrations of PCBs in both phases were determined by congener specific gas chromatography with electron capture detection. Total concentrations of PCBs ranged from 11 to 31 ng/L. The concentrations of PCBs in the dissolved phase ranged from 1.9 to 16 ng/L. The ratio of total PCBs bound to suspended particulates, relative to dissolved PCBs, was 2:1 and remained fairly constant for discharges less than approximately 400 M 3 /sec. The loading of total PCBs to Saginaw Bay was estimated to be 225 kg/yr, of which approximately 60% was found to be contributed by the lower 8 km of the Saginaw River.

Michigan↗

USGS2022

Avian predation on juvenile and adult Lost River and Shortnose Suckers: An updated multi-predator species evaluation

Previous research suggests that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds may negatively influence the survival of Lost River Suckers (LRS) Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers (SNS) Chasmistes brevirostris in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), USA. However, estimates of predation from past studies, which were based on suckers with PIT tags, represent minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of tags that were consumed by birds and deposited beyond their breeding colony. To address this uncertainty, we fed PIT-tagged suckers to American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos to estimate deposition probabilities. A hierarchical Bayesian model was then used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish that were consumed) on juvenile suckers that were released as part of the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) and on wild juvenile and adult LRS and SNS during 2009–2020. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated to be 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 tags consumed, 47 tags on average were deposited on breeding colonies by birds. Deposition-corrected estimates of predation rates were approximately two times greater than those previously reported and ranged annually from 4.3% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.7%) to 8.5% (6.3–12.7%) on SARP juvenile suckers, from 4.3% (0.9–13.2%) to 10.5% (3.8–24.5%) on wild juvenile suckers, and from 0.1% (<0.1–0.3%) to 7.2% (2.8–16.4%) on adult suckers, depending on species and location. Results suggest that predation by colonial waterbirds, although not the original cause of sucker declines, was a substantial source of sucker mortality in some years. Future studies should consider models that jointly estimate both predation and survival and models that include environmental factors that potentially influence sucker susceptibility to avian predators in the UKB.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2002

Flow distribution in selected branches of St. Clair and Detroit rivers

St. Clair and Detroit rivers, which are connecting channels between Lake Huron and Lake Erie in the Great Lakes basin, form part of the boundary between the state of Michigan and the province of Ontario. In 13 reaches, this flow divides locally around islands and dikes to form 31 branches. This study develops a set of simple linear regression equations for computing expected flow proportions in branches, generally as a function of the total flow within the reach. The equations are based on 533 acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements of flow obtained between 1996 and 2000. Root-mean-square errors of these regressions range from 0.00323 to 0.0895. In seven upstream reaches where flow is known because of flow specifications at the boundaries of the waterway and continuity constraints, the uncertainties of the flow proportions can be used to directly infer the uncertainties of the corresponding flows. In six downstream reaches, the uncertainties of flows are determined by both the uncertainties of the flow proportions and the uncertainties of the total flow in the reach. For these reaches, Monte Carlo simulations quantify the ratios of total uncertainty to flow proportion uncertainty, which range from 1.0026 to 13.984. To facilitate routine calculation, polynomial regression equations are developed to approximate these ratios as a function of flow. Results provide a mechanism for computing the magnitudes and uncertainties of steady-state flows within selected branches of the connecting channels by specifying inflows at the headwaters of St. Clair River, seven intervening tributaries, and Lake St. Clair.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2003

Selecting Great Lakes streams for lampricide treatment based on larval sea lamprey surveys

The Empiric Stream Treatment Ranking (ESTR) system is a data-driven, model-based, decision tool for selecting Great Lakes streams for treatment with lampricide, based on estimates from larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) surveys conducted throughout the basin. The 2000 ESTR system was described and applied to larval assessment surveys conducted from 1996 to 1999. A comparative analysis of stream survey and selection data was conducted and improvements to the stream selection process were recommended. Streams were selected for treatment based on treatment cost, predicted treatment effectiveness, and the projected number of juvenile sea lampreys produced. On average, lampricide treatments were applied annually to 49 streams with 1,075 ha of larval habitat, killing 15 million larval and 514,000 juvenile sea lampreys at a total cost of $5.3 million, and marginal and mean costs of $85 and $10 per juvenile killed. The numbers of juvenile sea lampreys killed for given treatment costs showed a pattern of diminishing returns with increasing investment. Of the streams selected for treatment, those with > 14 ha of larval habitat targeted 73% of the juvenile sea lampreys for 60% of the treatment cost. Suggested improvements to the ESTR system were to improve accuracy and precision of model estimates, account for uncertainty in estimates, include all potentially productive streams in the process (not just those surveyed in the current year), consider the value of all larvae killed during treatment (not just those predicted to metamorphose the following year), use lake-specific estimates of damage, and establish formal suppression targets.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2021

Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event

Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely available, but their application to hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows has not been extensively tested. Necessary inputs to these models include the total volume of the mobilized flow, flow properties (either inherent material properties or calibration coefficients), and site topography. Estimates of volume are possible in post-event (“back calculation”) studies, yet before an event, volume is an uncertain quantity. We simulated debris flow runout for the well-constrained 9 January 2018 Montecito event using three models (RAMMS, FLO2D, and D-Claw) to determine the relative importance of volume and flow properties. We broke the impacted area into three domains, and for each model-domain combination, we performed a numerical sampling study in which volume and flow properties varied within a wide, but plausible range. We assessed model performance based on inundation patterns and peak flow depths. We found all models could simulate the event with comparable results. Simulation performance was most sensitive to flow volume and less sensitive to flow properties. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing uncertainty in pre-event estimates of flow volume for hazard assessment.

California↗

USGS2020

Long-term trends of Lake Michigan benthos with emphasis on the southern basin

Lake Michigan benthic macrofauna have been studied for almost a century, allowing for a unique analysis of long-term changes in community structure. We examined changes in abundances of three major taxonomic groups of benthic macroinvertebrates (Diporeia, Oligochaeta, and Sphaeriidae) in southern Lake Michigan from 1931-2015, and identified the most likely causes for these changes. Abundances of all three groups increased during 1931-1980, with the bulk of these increases occurring in nearshore (≤ 50 m) waters and coincident with increasing loading of phosphorus (P) to the lake. Abundances of all three taxa declined during 1980-2000 again mostly in nearshore waters and coincident with decreased P loading. The quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) invasion was associated with a further decline in phytoplankton primary production during 2000-2015. Both Diporeia and Sphaeriidae declined in abundance during that time, with Diporeia exhibiting the more pronounced decrease of the two groups. In contrast, Oligochaeta increased in abundance during 2000-2015. The quagga mussel has become, by far, the most abundant benthic macroinvertebrate species in terms of density and biomass. Overall, the primary driver of changes in the abundances of the three major taxa during this 85-year period appeared to be changes in phytoplankton primary production due to changing P loadings and, later in the time series, Dreissena filtering. The dreissenid mussel invasions coincided with a rapid decline of Diporeia abundance, but the mechanism of this negative effect remains unidentified. In contrast, Oligochaeta likely benefitted from the quagga mussel invasion; perhaps via quagga-generated food supplies.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS1998

Ecology of Siberian Taimen Hucho taimen in the Lake Baikal Basin

Taimen Hucho taimen historically inhabited most tributaries and littoral areas of Lake Baikal, in south central Siberia, where they supported subsistence and commercial fisheries. Logging, pollution, and overfishing have caused dramatic population declines or local extinction of most stocks. Most of what is known about this species has been published in eastern journals and therefore is not readily available to western scientists. New data collected during the 1980s and 1990s have been combined with other reports to provide an overview of the biology and life history of this species. Taimen are long-lived fish and can reach ages of 29 years and sizes up to 60 kg. Populations can either be strictly riverine or anadromous. Adults from both life histories ascend rivers in spring to spawn and feed, and less extensive migrations occur in fall to prey on spawning omul ( Coregonus autumnalis migratorius ). Principal food items for age 1 and 2 taimen are macroinvertebrates, but young taimen quickly become piscivorous at age 2 when they consume mainly black Baikal grayling ( Thymallus arcticus baicalensis ), and sculpins ( Taracottus kneri, Cottus kesslerij ). Males reach sexual maturity at ages 7 to 8 and later for females at ages 8 to 9. Average egg production per female was about 22,000 eggs. Parasite burdens are heavy but composed of few species and mediated by prey items consumed. This fish is a highly-specialized predator and plays an indispensable role in the structure of fish communities in mountains and foothills. Taimen conservation in the Baikal region is impossible without adoption and implementation of a dedicated rehabilitation program that includes the protection of remaining populations and habitat, and possibly introduction of hatchery-reared fish in selected areas where habitat remains, but parental stocks are low.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2016

Entrainment, retention, and transport of freely swimming fish in junction gaps between commercial barges operating on the Illinois Waterway

Large Electric Dispersal Barriers were constructed in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) to prevent the transfer of invasive fish species between the Mississippi River Basin and the Great Lakes Basin while simultaneously allowing the passage of commercial barge traffic. We investigated the potential for entrainment, retention, and transport of freely swimming fish within large gaps (> 50 m 3 ) created at junction points between barges. Modified mark and capture trials were employed to assess fish entrainment, retention, and transport by barge tows. A multi-beam sonar system enabled estimation of fish abundance within barge junction gaps. Barges were also instrumented with acoustic Doppler velocity meters to map the velocity distribution in the water surrounding the barge and in the gap formed at the junction of two barges. Results indicate that the water inside the gap can move upstream with a barge tow at speeds near the barge tow travel speed. Water within 1 m to the side of the barge junction gaps was observed to move upstream with the barge tow. Observed transverse and vertical water velocities suggest pathways by which fish may potentially be entrained into barge junction gaps. Results of mark and capture trials provide direct evidence that small fish can become entrained by barges, retained within junction gaps, and transported over distances of at least 15.5 km. Fish entrained within the barge junction gap were retained in that space as the barge tow transited through locks and the Electric Dispersal Barriers, which would be expected to impede fish movement upstream.

Illinois↗

USGS2023

Stratigraphic architecture and fluvial interpretations of the Upper Cretaceous (Turonian?) Middendorf Formation, Chesterfield County, South Carolina, U.S.A.

The Upper Cretaceous (Turonian?) Middendorf Formation is a sand-rich stratigraphic unit of fluvial origin that forms a large aquifer in the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain. In Chesterfield County (South Carolina), which is the site of the type locality, the formation ranges in thickness from 66.5 to > 119.7 meters. The base of the formation is an unconformity above Paleozoic metasiltstone, and the upper contact is an unconformity above which lies sand of the Quaternary Pinehurst Formation. Outcrops display the following five facies assemblages: 1) sandstone to conglomeratic sandstone (fluvial bar and channel deposits), 2) beds of alternating laminae of sandstone and mudstone (fluvial overbank or floodplain deposits), 3) ≥ 1 m-thick beds of clay (swamp deposits, floodplain deposits, and/or sediment that accumulated in abandoned fluvial channels), 4) 0.2–0.5 m-thick planar to slightly undulatory beds of framework-supported sandstone with a mud matrix (traction-dominated current deposits at the top of fluvial bars, upper-flow-regime bedform deposits in subsidiary fluvial channels, or coarse-grained overbank deposits), and 5) sandstone to conglomeratic sandstone cemented by iron (interpreted as fluvial bar and channel deposits, with the iron cement being a diagenetic “groundwater ferricrete” that formed via the circulation of shallow groundwater and the oxidation of iron-bearing minerals). Kaolinite in various forms is pervasive throughout the formation and is interpreted as an early diagenetic phenomenon that formed by prolonged postdepositional weathering and flushing by meteoric water under a warm and humid paleoclimate. The fluvial system that formed the Middendorf Formation prograded into the area from the west or northwest from uplifted margins of Mesozoic rift basins and/or the Appalachian Mountains. This progradation was a response to a base-level fall and the sediment accumulated during base-level lowstand and subsequent early transgression. In Chesterfield County, the Middendorf Formation can be subdivided into three fining-upward sequences. Each sequence consists predominantly of medium to coarse sand with a greater abundance of gravel in the lower part of the sequence and a greater abundance of clay and silt beds in the upper part. Each sequence is interpreted as either a response to autogenic processes or a response to allogenic sea-level changes, specifically a higher-order (higher-frequency) progression from relative lowstand conditions to early transgression whereby coarse sand and gravel (e.g., fluvial bar and channel deposits) were preserved during initial lowstand conditions and a greater proportion of mud and finer-grained sand (floodplain deposits) were preserved during subsequent early transgression. The Middendorf Formation is correlative with several other kaolinite-rich fluvial sandstones in North America including the Raritan Formation in New Jersey, the Tuscaloosa Formation of the eastern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana), the Woodbine Formation of the central Gulf of Mexico (Texas), and the Frontier Formation of Wyoming. The accumulation and preservation of these formations occurred in response to a Turonian eustatic sea-level fall and subsequent transgression, and the early diagenetic kaolinite in these formations is attributed to similar warm and humid paleoclimate conditions.

South Carolina↗

USGS2021

Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

In the humid, temperate Delaware River Basin (DRB) where water availability is generally reliable, summer low flows can cause competition between various human and ecological water uses. As temperatures continue to rise, population increases and development expands, it is critical to understand historical low flow variability to anticipate and plan for future flows. Using a sample of 325 U.S. Geological Survey gages, we evaluated spatial patterns in several low flow metrics, the biophysical and climatic drivers of these metrics, and trends in low flows for two periods: 1950-2018 and 1980-2018. We calculated the annual 7-day low flow and date, low flow deficit as the departure below a long-term daily flow threshold and the number of discrete low flow periods below this threshold. We also aggregated several climate metrics to watershed scale and used existing watershed properties quantifying land cover, topography, soils, geology, and human activity. Random forest models were used to assess the hierarchy of variable importance in explaining mean-annual low flow variability for each low flow metric using all gages. We find muted regional patterns in mean-annual low flow and low flow variability, likely due to the myriad of anthropogenic, landscape, and flow modifications that obscure flow regimes from their natural characteristics. In contrast, individual years show markedly different spatial patterns in low flow magnitude and severity. Coincident with increases in precipitation, 7-day low flows have generally increased and low flow deficits decreased for both 1950-2018 and 1980-2018 periods. However, 7-day low flows have decreased in the Coastal Plain physiographic province where water use and impervious area have increased in recent decades, highlighting the effects of land and water management on low flows. With continued change expected in the DRB, additional research needs are highlighted to enable estimation of future low flows and to plan for periods of prolonged low flow.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2021

Sage-grouse population dynamics are adversely impacted by overabundant feral horses

In recent decades, feral horse ( Equus caballus ; horse) populations increased in sagebrush ( Artimesia spp.) ecosystems, especially within the Great Basin, to the point of exceeding maximum appropriate management levels (AML max ), which were set by land administrators to balance resource use by feral horses, livestock, and wildlife. Concomitantly, greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) are sagebrush obligates that have experienced population declines within these same arid environments as a result of steady and continued loss of seasonal habitats. Although a strong body of research indicates that overabundant populations of horses degrade sagebrush ecosystems, empirical evidence linking horse abundance to sage-grouse population dynamics is missing. Within a Bayesian framework, we employed state-space models to estimate population rate of change ( λ ) using 15 years (2005–2019) of count surveys of male sage-grouse at traditional breeding grounds (i.e., leks) as a function of horse abundance relative to AML max and other environmental covariates (e.g., wildfire, precipitation, % sagebrush cover). Additionally, we employed a post hoc impact-control design to validate existing AML max values as related to sage-grouse population responses, and to help control for environmental stochasticity and broad-scale oscillations in sage-grouse abundance. On average, for every 50% increase in horse abundance over AML max , our model predicted an annual decline in sage-grouse abundance by 2.6%. Horse abundance at or below AML max coincided with sage-grouse λ estimates that were consistent with trends at non-horse areas elsewhere in the study region. Thus, AML max , as a whole, appeared to be set adequately in preventing adverse effects to sage-grouse populations. Results indicated 76%, 97%, and >99% probability of sage-grouse population decline relative to controls when horse numbers are 2, 2.5, and ≥3 times over AML max , respectively. As of 2019, horse herds exceeded AML max in Nevada, USA, by >4 times on average across all horse management areas. If feral horse populations continue to grow at current rates unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced within horse-occupied areas by >70.0% by 2034 (15-year projection), on average compared to 21.2% estimated for control sites. A monitoring framework that improves on estimating horse abundance and identifying responses of sage-grouse and other key indicator species (plant and animal) would be beneficial to guide management decisions that promote co-occurrence of horses with sensitive wildlife and livestock within landscapes subjected to multiple uses. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Nevada↗