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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Ecosystem responses to nitrogen deposition in the Colorado Front Range

We asked whether 3–5 kg N y −1 atmospheric N deposition was sufficient to have influenced natural, otherwise undisturbed, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the Colorado Front Range by comparing ecosystem processes and properties east and west of the Continental Divide. The eastern side receives elevated N deposition from urban, agricultural, and industrial sources, compared with 1–2 kg N y −1 on the western side. Foliage of east side old-growth Englemann spruce forests have significantly lower C:N and lignin:N ratios and greater N:Mg and N:P ratios. Soil % N is higher, and C:N ratios lower in the east side stands, and potential net N mineralization rates are greater. Lake NO 3 concentrations are significantly higher in eastern lakes than western lakes. Two east side lakes studied paleolimnologically revealed rapid changes in diatom community composition and increased biovolumes and cell concentrations. The diatom flora is now representative of increased disturbance or eutrophication. Sediment nitrogen isotopic ratios have become progressively lighter over the past 50 years, coincident with the change in algal flora, possibly from an influx of isotopically light N volatilized from agricultural fields and feedlots. Seventy-five percent of the increased east side soil N pool can be accounted for by increased N deposition commensurate with human settlement. Nitrogen emissions from fixed, mobile, and agricultural sources have increased dramatically since approximately 1950 to the east of the Colorado Front Range, as they have in many parts of the world. Our findings indicate even slight increases in atmospheric deposition lead to measurable changes in ecosystem properties.

Colorado↗

Ecosystem services from converted land: the importance of tree cover in Amazonian pastures

Deforestation is responsible for a substantial fraction of global carbon emissions and changes in surface energy budgets that affect climate. Deforestation losses include wildlife and human habitat, and myriad forest products on which rural and urban societies depend for food, fiber, fuel, fresh water, medicine, and recreation. Ecosystem services gained in the transition from forests to pasture and croplands, however, are often ignored in assessments of the impact of land cover change. The role of converted lands in tropical areas in terms of carbon uptake and storage is largely unknown. Pastures represent the fastest-growing form of converted land use in the tropics, even in some areas of rapid urban expansion. Tree biomass stored in these areas spans a broad range, depending on tree cover. Trees in pasture increase carbon storage, provide shade for cattle, and increase productivity of forage material. As a result, increasing fractional tree cover can provide benefits land managers as well as important ecosystem services such as reducing conversion pressure on forests adjacent to pastures. This study presents an estimation of fractional tree cover in pasture in a dynamic region on the verge of large-scale land use change. An appropriate sampling interval is established for similar studies, one that balances the need for independent samples of sufficient number to characterize a pasture in terms of fractional tree cover. This information represents a useful policy tool for government organizations and NGOs interested in encouraging ecosystem services on converted lands. Using high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery, fractional tree cover in pasture is quantified for the municipality of Rio Branco, Brazil. A semivariogram and devolving spatial resolution are employed to determine the coarsest sampling interval that may be used, minimizing effects of spatial autocorrelation. The coarsest sampling interval that minimizes spatial dependence was about 22 m. The area-weighted fractional tree cover for the study area was 1.85 %, corrected for a slight bias associated with the coarser sampling resolution. The pastures sampled for fractional tree cover were divided between ‘high’ and ‘low’ tree cover, which may be the result of intentional incorporation of arboreal species in pasture. Further research involving those ranchers that have a higher fractional tree cover may indicate ways to promote the practice on a broader scale in the region.

Urban Ecosystems↗

Quantifying ecosystem service flows at multiple scales across the range of a long-distance migratory species

Migratory species provide ecosystem goods and services throughout their annual cycles, often over long distances. Designing effective conservation solutions for migratory species requires knowledge of both species ecology and the socioeconomic context of their migrations. We present a framework built around the concept that migratory species act as carriers, delivering benefit flows to people throughout their annual cycle that are supported by the network of ecosystems upon which the species depend. We apply this framework to the monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) migration of eastern North America by calculating their spatial subsidies. Spatial subsidies are the net ecosystem service flows throughout a species’ range and a quantitative measure of the spatial mismatch between the locations where people receive most benefits and the locations of habitats that most support the species. Results indicate cultural benefits provided by monarchs in the U.S. and Canada are subsidized by migration and overwintering habitat in Mexico. At a finer scale, throughout the monarch range, habitat in rural landscapes subsidizes urban residents. Understanding the spatial distribution of benefits derived from and ecological support provided to monarchs and other migratory species offers a promising means of understanding the costs and benefits associated with conservation across jurisdictional borders.

Ecosystem Services↗

Burrowing mayflies as indicators of ecosystem health: Status of populations in two western Lake Superior embayments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada are supporting the development of indicators of ecosystem health that can be used to report on progress in restoring and maintaining the Great Lakes ecosystem, as called for in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the United States and Canada. One indicator under development for Great Lakes mesotrophic environments is based on burrowing mayflies ( Hexagenia : Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae). In this paper, we report the results of a benthic survey in spring 2002 to determine the status of nymphal populations of Hexagenia in two western Lake Superior embayments, the St. Louis River estuary, an area with significant water-use impairments, and Chequamegon Bay, an area with no known water-use impairments. Ponar grab samples collected throughout these embayments showed nymphs were generally abundant in finely particulate, cohesive substrate (clay or mixtures of clay and sand) in both embayments. However, in the St. Louis River estuary nymphs were absent in those preferred substrates at 11 stations in the eastern portion of St. Louis Bay and the adjoining northwestern portion of the Duluth-Superior Harbor, where the sediments were variously contaminated with visible amounts of taconite pellets, paint chips, oil, or combusted coal waste (clinkers). Our results suggest that human activities have rendered those portions of the St. Louis River estuary unsuitable for habitation by Hexagenia nymphs and we recommend that trend monitoring of the nymphal population there be conducted to permit reporting on progress in restoring and maintaining the health and integrity of this Great Lakes ecosystem embayment, consistent with the intent of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Burrowing mayflies as indicators of ecosystem health: Status of populations in western Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay and Green Bay

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada are supporting the development of indicators of ecosystem health that can be used to report on progress in restoring and maintaining the Great Lakes ecosystem, as called for in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the United States and Canada. One indicator under development is based on burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia: Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae). We sampled in western Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), and Green Bay (Lake Michigan) in spring 2001 at 117 stations covering about 1,870 km 2 of lake bed, to determine the status of nymphal populations of Hexagenia, and to provide information that would further the technical development of an indicator of ecosystem health based on Hexagenia. In western Lake Erie, density and biomass of nymphs were generally highest on fine-grained substrate in offshore waters and were lower on coarser substrates in near shore waters. Nymphs were virtually absent from Saginaw Bay, where only one nymph was collected at 28 stations. Nymphs were collected at only 6 of 48 stations in Green Bay, and density and biomass were highest at the northern end of the bay. Polluted sediments are likely responsible for the absence or low density and biomass of nymphs observed on fine-grained substrates in western Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay, and Green Bay, all of which historically supported abundant populations.

Green Bay, Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, S↗

Diets of aquatic birds reflect changes in the Lake Huron ecosystem

Human activities have affected the Lake Huron ecosystem, in part, through alterations in the structure and function of its food webs. Insights into the nature of food web change and its ecological ramifications can be obtained through the monitoring of high trophic level predators such as aquatic birds. Often, food web change involves alterations in the relative abundance of constituent species and/or the introduction of new species (exotic invaders). Diet composition of aquatic birds is influenced, in part, by relative prey availability and therefore is a sensitive measure of food web structure. Using bird diet data to make inferences regarding food web change requires consistent measures of diet composition through time. This can be accomplished by measuring stable chemical and/or biochemical “ecological tracers” in archived avian samples. Such tracers provide insights into pathways of energy and nutrient transfer. In this study, we examine the utility of two groups of naturally-occurring intrinsic tracers (stable isotopes and fatty acids) to provide such information in a predatory seabird, the herring gull ( Larus argentatus ). Retrospective stable nitrogen and carbon isotope analysis of archived herring gull eggs identified declines in gull trophic position and shifts in food sources in Lake Huron over the last 25 years and changes in gull diet composition were inferred from egg fatty acid patterns. These independent groups of ecological tracers provided corroborating evidence of dietary change in this high trophic level predator. Gull dietary shifts were related to declines in prey fish abundance which suggests large-scale alterations to the Lake Huron ecosystem. Dietary shifts in herring gulls may be contributing to reductions in resources available for egg formation. Further research is required to evaluate how changes in resource availability may affect population sustainability in herring gulls and other waterbird species. Long-term biological monitoring programs are required to identify ecosystem change and evaluate its ecological significance.

Lake Huron↗

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗

Differential response of carbon fluxes to climate in three peatland ecosystems that vary in the presence and stability of permafrost

Changes in vegetation and soil properties following permafrost degradation and thermokarst development in peatlands may cause changes in net carbon storage. To better understand these dynamics, we established three sites in Alaska that vary in permafrost regime, including a black spruce peat plateau forest with stable permafrost, an internal collapse scar bog formed as a result of thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements include year-round eddy covariance estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water, and energy fluxes, associated environmental variables, and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes at the collapse scar bog. The ecosystems all acted as net sinks of CO 2 in 2011 and 2012, when air temperature and precipitation remained near long-term means. In 2013, under a late snowmelt and late leaf out followed by a hot, dry summer, the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog were sources of CO 2 . In this same year, CO 2 uptake in the fen increased, largely because summer inundation from groundwater inputs suppressed ecosystem respiration. CO 2 exchange in the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog was sensitive to warm air temperatures, with 0.5 g C m −2 lost each day when maximum air temperature was very warm (≥29°C). The bog lost 4981 ± 300 mg CH 4 m −2 between April and September 2013, indicating that this ecosystem acted as a significant source of both CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere in 2013. These results suggest that boreal peatland responses to warming and drying, both of which are expected to occur in a changing climate, will depend on permafrost regime.

Alaska↗

Potential for real‐time understanding of coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in stream ecosystems: Future integration of telemetered data with process models for glacial meltwater streams

While continuous monitoring of streamflow and temperature has been common for some time, there is great potential to expand continuous monitoring to include water quality parameters such as nutrients, turbidity, oxygen, and dissolved organic material. In many systems, distinguishing between watershed and stream ecosystem controls can be challenging. The usefulness of such monitoring can be enhanced by the application of quantitative models to interpret observed patterns in real time. Examples are discussed primarily from the glacial meltwater streams of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Although the Dry Valley landscape is barren of plants, many streams harbor thriving cyanobacterial mats. Whereas a daily cycle of streamflow is controlled by the surface energy balance on the glaciers and the temporal pattern of solar exposure, the daily signal for biogeochemical processes controlling water quality is generated along the stream. These features result in an excellent outdoor laboratory for investigating fundamental ecosystem process and the development and validation of process‐based models. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long‐Term Ecological Research project, we have conducted field experiments and developed coupled biogeochemical transport models for the role of hyporheic exchange in controlling weathering reactions, microbial nitrogen cycling, and stream temperature regulation. We have adapted modeling approaches from sediment transport to understand mobilization of stream biomass with increasing flows. These models help to elucidate the role of in‐stream processes in systems where watershed processes also contribute to observed patterns, and may serve as a test case for applying real‐time stream ecosystem models.

Water Resources Research↗

Measuring spatial patterns in floodplains: A step towards understanding the complexity of floodplain ecosystems: Chapter 6

Floodplains can be viewed as complex adaptive systems (Levin, 1998) because they are comprised of many different biophysical components, such as morphological features, soil groups and vegetation communities as well as being sites of key biogeochemical processing (Stanford et al., 2005). Interactions and feedbacks among the biophysical components often result in additional phenomena occuring over a range of scales, often in the absence of any controlling factors (sensu Hallet, 1990). This emergence of new biophysical features and rates of processing can lead to alternative stable states which feed back into floodplain adaptive cycles (cf. Hughes, 1997; Stanford et al., 2005). Interactions between different biophysical components, feedbacks, self emergence and scale are all key properties of complex adaptive systems (Levin, 1998; Phillips, 2003; Murray et al., 2014) and therefore will influence the manner in which we study and view spatial patterns. Measuring the spatial patterns of floodplain biophysical components is a prerequisite to examining and understanding these ecosystems as complex adaptive systems. Elucidating relationships between pattern and process, which are intrinsically linked within floodplains (Ward et al., 2002), is dependent upon an understanding of spatial pattern. This knowledge can help river scientists determine the major drivers, controllers and responses of floodplain structure and function, as well as the consequences of altering those drivers and controllers (Hughes and Cass, 1997; Whited et al., 2007). Interactions and feedbacks between physical, chemical and biological components of floodplain ecosystems create and maintain a structurally diverse and dynamic template (Stanford et al., 2005). This template influences subsequent interactions between components that consequently affect system trajectories within floodplains (sensu Bak et al., 1988). Constructing and evaluating models used to predict floodplain ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances therefore require quantification of spatial pattern (Asselman and Middelkoop, 1995; Walling and He, 1998). Quantifying these patterns also provides insights into the spatial and temporal domains of structuring processes as well as enabling the detection of self-emergent phenomena, environmental constraints or anthropogenic interference (Turner et al., 1990; Holling, 1992; De Jager and Rohweder, 2012). Thus, quantifying spatial pattern is an important building block on which to examine floodplains as complex adaptive systems (Levin, 1998). Approaches to measuring spatial pattern in floodplains must be cognisant of scale, self-emergent phenomena, spatial organisation, and location. Fundamental problems may arise when patterns observed at a site or transect scale are scaled-up to infer processes and patterns over entire floodplain surfaces (Wiens, 2002; Thorp et al., 2008). Likewise, patterns observed over the entire spatial extent of a landscape can mask important variation and detail at finer scales (Riitters et al., 2002). Indeed, different patterns often emerge at different scales (Turner et al., 1990) because of hierarchical structuring processes (O'Neill et al., 1991). Categorising data into discrete, homogeneous and predefined spatial units at a particular scale (e.g. polygons) creates issues and errors associated with scale and subjective classification (McGarigal et al., 2009; Cushman et al., 2010). These include, loss of information within classified ‘patches’, as well as the ability to detect the emergence of new features that do not fit the original classification scheme. Many of these issues arise because floodplains are highly heterogeneous and have complex spatial organizations (Carbonneau et al., 2012; Legleiter, 2013). As a result, the scale and location at which measurements are made can influence the observed spatial patterns; and patterns may not be scale independent or applicable in different geomorp

Book chapter↗

Potential for carbon and nitrogen sequestration by restoring tidal connectivity and enhancing soil surface elevations in denuded and degraded south Florida mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tidally dependent wetlands that are influenced often by alterations in hydrology associated with coastal developments that impact their distribution, health, and function. Alteration in frequency, depth, duration, and seasonality of tidal inundation can lead to changes in forest condition, although these stress-adapted ecosystems may persist for many years before succumbing to mortality. However, arresting this decline through hydrological restoration can significantly improve ecosystem condition and the provision of ecosystem services. Much of the mangrove resource on Marco Island, Florida, USA, is unhealthy if not already dead or dying due to soil structural shifts, permanent flooding, and peat compression resulting from road construction, tidal restriction, and delays in restoration actions. In order to determine the impact of restricted hydrology on these mangrove forests, we examined soil surface elevation change and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content along a degradation gradient and within a small-scale, community-driven restoration area. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we found that the restoration of regular tidal inundation to Marco Island mangroves has the potential to increase C sequestration in surface soils alone from 0 to 360 g C/m 2 /yr (3.60 Mg C/ha/yr) and increase N sequestration from 0 to 24 g N/m2/yr (0.24 Mg N/ha/yr). Additional sequestration benefits would be realized with aboveground forest recovery. Successful mangrove restoration trials and small community-based projects such as those on Marco Island could serve as a model for larger efforts and empower stakeholders and policy makers to restore other wetlands and better manage coastal carbon.

Florida↗

Tools for assessing contaminated sediments in freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems

Traditionally, concerns about the management of aquatic resources in aquatic ecosystems have focused primarily on water quality. As such, early water resource management efforts were often directed at assuring the potability of surface water or groundwater sources. Subsequently, the scope of these management initiatives expanded to include protection of instream (i.e., fish and aquatic life), agricultural, industrial, and recreational water uses. Although initiatives undertaken in the past 30 years have unquestionably improved water quality conditions, a growing body of evidence indicates that management efforts directed solely at the attainment of surface -water quality criteria may not provide an adequate basis for protecting the designated uses of aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, concerns about the health and vitality of aquatic ecosystems have begun to re -emerge in North America. One of the principal reasons for this is that many toxic and bioaccumulative chemicals, which are found in only trace amounts in water, can accumulate to elevated levels in sediments. Some of these pollutants, such as organochlorine (OC) pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), were released into the environment long ago. The use of many of these substances has been banned in North America for 30 years or more; nevertheless, these chemicals continue to persist in the environment. Other contaminants enter our waters every day from industrial and municipal discharges, urban and agricultural runoff, and atmospheric deposition from remote sources. Owing to their physical and chemical properties, many of these substances tend to accumulate in sediments. In addition to providing sinks for many chemicals, sediments can also serve as potential sources of pollutants to the water column when conditions change in the receiving water system (for example during periods of anoxia, after severe storms).

Book chapter↗

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗

Different data for different goals: Exploring trade-offs and synergies in the use of spatial data inputs to optimize conservation action in sagebrush ecosystems

Ecosystems worldwide continue to experience rapid rates of habitat and species loss. Management actions to conserve and restore functional habitats are needed to reduce these declines, but funding and resources for such actions are limited. Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) can facilitate strategic decision-making for targeted conservation planning and delivery, but complexities arise when management objectives include multiple wildlife species and ecological or management constraints, all of which can be further complicated by data uncertainty and existing conservation plans. The Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET), an R package-based decision-support tool, supports strategic ecosystem management planning across the sagebrush biome by using SCP. We adapted PReSET to better address the needs of multiple wildlife species, evaluate the effects of different ecological or management constraints on conservation outcomes, assess the influence of data uncertainty, and integrate existing conservation plans. Specifically, we developed optimization problems to identify priority sagebrush protection and restoration across the state of Wyoming, USA, and evaluated the efficacy and trade-offs of various approaches to problem design. We evaluated trade-offs in targeting multiple species compared to a single species, including using greater sage-grouse as a potential umbrella species to benefit other sagebrush-dependent wildlife. We then evaluated multi-species protection and restoration problems aimed at minimizing the risks of inadequate connectivity, climate change, and restoration failure, and accounted for data uncertainty to assess relationships between risk aversion of managers and conservation outcomes. We also developed optimization problems within conservation areas identified by an existing sagebrush conservation plan to evaluate the efficacy of guiding local-scale conservation delivery within more broadly defined conservation areas. Our results demonstrate how SCP methods can leverage novel spatial data to develop targeted decision-support resources that can facilitate landscape conservation planning and improve management outcomes across a wide array of systems and species.

Wyoming↗

Understanding the role of ecohydrological feedbacks in ecosystem state change in drylands

Ecohydrological feedbacks are likely to be critical for understanding the mechanisms by which changes in exogenous forces result in ecosystem state change. We propose that in drylands, the dynamics of ecosystem state change are determined by changes in the type (stabilizing vs amplifying) and strength of ecohydrological feedbacks following a change in exogenous forces. Using a selection of five case studies from drylands, we explore the characteristics of ecohydrological feedbacks and resulting dynamics of ecosystem state change. We surmise that stabilizing feedbacks are critical for the provision of plant-essential resources in drylands. Exogenous forces that break these stabilizing feedbacks can alter the state of the system, although such changes are potentially reversible if strong amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks do not develop. The case studies indicate that if amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks do develop, they are typically associated with abiotic processes such as runoff, erosion (by wind and water), and fire. These amplifying ecohydrological feedbacks progressively modify the system in ways that are long-lasting and possibly irreversible on human timescales.

Ecohydrology↗

Impacts of introduced Rangifer on ecosystem processes of maritime tundra on subarctic islands

Introductions of mammalian herbivores to remote islands without predators provide a natural experiment to ask how temporal and spatial variation in herbivory intensity alter feedbacks between plant and soil processes. We investigated ecosystem effects resulting from introductions of Rangifer tarandus (hereafter “ Rangifer ”) to native mammalian predator- and herbivore-free islands in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska. We hypothesized that the maritime tundra of these islands would experience either: (1) accelerated ecosystem processes mediated by positive feedbacks between increased graminoid production and rapid nitrogen cycling; or (2) decelerated processes mediated by herbivory that stimulated shrub domination and lowered soil fertility. We measured summer plant and soil properties across three islands representing a chronosequence of elapsed time post- Rangifer introduction (Atka: ~100 yr; Adak: ~50; Kagalaska: ~0), with distinct stages of irruptive population dynamics of Rangifer nested within each island (Atka: irruption, K-overshoot, decline, K-re-equilibration; Adak: irruption, K-overshoot; Kagalaska: initial introduction). We also measured Rangifer spatial use within islands (indexed by pellet group counts) to determine how ecosystem processes responded to spatial variation in herbivory. Vegetation community response to herbivory varied with temporal and spatial scale. When comparing temporal effects using the island chronosequence, increased time since herbivore introduction led to more graminoids and fewer dwarf-shrubs, lichens, and mosses. Slow-growing Cladonia lichens that are highly preferred winter forage were decimated on both long-term Rangifer -occupied islands. In addition, linear relations between more concentrated Rangifer spatial use and reductions in graminoid and forb biomass within islands added spatial heterogeneity to long-term patterns identified by the chronosequence. These results support, in part, the hypothesis that Rangifer population persistence on islands is facilitated by successful exploitation of graminoid biomass as winter forage after palatable lichens are decimated. However, the shift from shrubs to graminoids was expected to enhance rates of nitrogen cycling, yet rates of net N-mineralization, NH 4 + pools, and soil δ 15 N declined markedly along the chronosequence and were weakly associated with spatial use within islands. Overall plant and soil patterns were disrupted but responded differently to intermediate (50 yr) and long-term (100 yr) herbivory, and were correlated with distinct stages of irruptive population dynamics.

Alaska↗

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗

A graphical causal model for resolving species identity effects and biodiversity–ecosystem function correlations: comment

In a recent paper, Schoolmaster, Zirbel, and Cronin (SZC) (2020 ) claim “Formal causal analysis show[s] that biodiversity–ecosystem function (BEF) correlations are non-causal associations.” If this conclusion is accepted as true, it suggests a reconsideration of much of our current understanding of how biodiversity relates to the functioning of ecosystems. On the surface, it is easy to spot clear signs of something problematic with SZC’s presentation. They claim, for example, that (1) species richness is incapable of having a causal effect on ecosystem functioning on theoretical grounds, and (2) that trait diversity cannot be causally influenced by species diversity. These remarkable claims are counter to existing thought and evidence. We point to logical errors that lead them to a misapply causal analysis and produce erroneous conclusions.

Ecology↗