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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Global Change Biology

Comparisons of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea-ice projections in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecoregions during the 21st century

Climate model projections are commonly used to assess potential impacts of global warming on a breadth of social, economic, and environmental topics. Modeling centers throughout the world coordinate to apply a consistent suite of radiative forcing experiments so that all model outputs can be collectively analyzed and compared. Three generations of model outputs have been produced and made available to the scientific community through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP3 disseminated during the mid-2000s, CMIP5 during the early-2010s, and CMIP6 during the late-2010s. Twenty-first century sea-ice projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models have been used in Bayesian network assessments of how climate change could impact the future persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout their range. In this report, we compare sea-ice projections by CMIP6 models to those of CMIP5 models in each of four polar bear ecoregions over the 21st century. We evaluate differences between the two CMIP generations with respect to other sources of variability that affect uncertainties of the model projections: (1) variability from different models; (2) variability from different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios; and (3) natural (internal) variability in the earth’s climate system. We found that natural variability as well as that attributable to models dominated uncertainties in sea-ice projections in all months and ecoregions during the first half of the 21st century, while emissions scenarios dominated uncertainties during the late 21st century. By comparison, we found only slight differences between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 model projections of sea ice. Applying CMIP6 instead of CMIP5 sea-ice projections to the polar bear Bayesian network model developed in 2016, therefore, would not qualitatively change the population status outcomes published therein.

Open-File Report

Glaciological measurements and mass balances from Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA, years 2005–2015

Glacier mass balance measurements help to provide an understanding of the behavior of glaciers and their response to local and regional climate. In 2005 the United States Geological Survey established a surface mass balance monitoring program on Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA. This project is the first quantitative study of mass changes of a glacier in the US northern Rocky Mountains and continues to the present. The following paper describes the methods used during the first 11 years of measurements and reports the associated results. From 2005 to 2015, Sperry Glacier had a cumulative mean mass balance loss of 4.37 m w.e. (water equivalent). The mean winter, summer, and annual glacier-wide mass balances were 2.92, −3.41, and −0.40 m w.e. yr −1 respectively. We derive these cumulative and mean results from an expansive data set of snow depth, snow density, and ablation measurements taken at selected points on the glacier. These data allow for the determination of mass balance point values and a time series of seasonal and annual glacier-wide mass balances for all 11 measurement years. We also provide measurements of glacier extent and accumulation areas for select years. All data have been submitted to the World Glacier Monitoring Service and are available at doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2016-08 . This foundational work provides valuable insight about Sperry Glacier and supplies additional data to the worldwide record of glaciers measured using the glaciological method. Future research will focus on the processes that control accumulation and ablation patterns across the glacier. Also we plan to examine the uncertainties related to our methods and eventually quantify a more robust estimate of error associated with our results.

Montana

Appraisal of the future climate of the Holocene in the Rocky Mountains

Consideration of the history of Holocene climate in the Rocky Mountains indicates that the over-all trend during the past 2500 yr has been toward increasing warmth, interrupted by cooler times of minor advances of cirque glaciers. Comparison of Holocene climatic history with the record of past interglacials in the region suggests that the present interglacial is not complete and that the climate may become first warmer and subsequently wetter before it is completed. Correlation of the timing of the regional glacial-interglacial record for the past 140,000 yr with the record of major sea level changes and with the calculated changes in the earth's insolation suggest that the present interglacial may be completed within a few millenia and that it may be followed by a significant cooling of the climate.

Rocky Mountain region

Gravity data from the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

Observations of very small changes of Earth’s gravitational field (time-lapse gravity) provide a direct, non-invasive method for measuring changes in aquifer storage change. An existing network of gravity stations in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed was revised in 2014 to better understand the spatial distribution of changes in aquifer storage, especially with relation to ephemeral channel recharge and a groundwater cone of depression associated with pumping in the greater Sierra Vista area. In addition, the network was extended to provide baseline data for possible future enhanced-recharge projects. This report (1) summarizes changes to the Sierra Vista Subwatershed regional time-lapse gravity network with respect to station locations and (2) presents 2014 and 2015 gravity measurements and gravity values at each station. A prior gravity network, established between 2000 and 2005, was revised in 2014 to cover a larger number of stations over a smaller geographic area in order to decrease measurement and interpolation uncertainty. The network currently consists of 59 gravity stations, including 14 absolute-gravity stations. Following above-average rainfall during summer 2014, gravity increased at all but one of the absolute-gravity stations that were observed in both June 2014 and January 2015. This increase in gravity indicates increased groundwater storage in the aquifer and (or) unsaturated zone as a result of rainfall and infiltration.

Arizona

HAZUS 99 estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

Recent earthquakes around the world show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses. The increases are due primarily to two factors: 1) significant growth in urban areas that are prone to earthquakes; and 2) the vulnerability of the older building stock, even buildings that were constructed within the past twenty years. In the United States, earthquake risk has grown substantially with development, while the earthquake hazard has remained relatively constant. To understand the hazard, we study earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur. To understand risk, we must include characteristics of the built environment in the locales where earthquakes occur, and we must assess potential damages to the built environment and the people who use it. That is a complex undertaking and one this study intends to advance. It is important to estimate the varying degrees of seismic risk throughout the United States because we need that understanding in order to make informed decisions on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels—in both the public and private sectors. We can reduce earthquake losses to older buildings by rehabilitating them, and we can reduce earthquake losses in new buildings by applying seismic codes to their design and construction. However, decisions to spend money on either of those solutions require evidence of risk. In the absence of a nationally accepted criterion and methodology for comparing seismic risk across regions, a consensus on optimal mitigation approaches has been difficult to reach. We are all aware of regions with high hazard and high risk, such as Los Angeles, but there is growing recognition that some regions with low seismic hazard actually have high seismic risk, as is the case in New York City and Boston. This risk results, in part, from concentrations of buildings and infrastructure built without use of seismic codes or provisions. Additionally, mitigation policies and practices in the public and private sectors may not have been adopted because a community’s earthquake risk was not clearly demonstrated, and neither was the value of mitigation measures in reducing that risk. The low hazard/high risk problem exists in a number of areas in the U.S., where the infrequency of damaging earthquakes has been interpreted, wrongly, as lack of risk. While earth scientists work to increase knowledge about the hazard throughout the United States, structural engineers and other professionals work to enumerate the many factors that comprise risk. This study is one result of that endeavor. It is based on loss estimates generated by Hazards U.S. (HAZUS), a Geographic Information System (GIS)- based earthquake loss estimation tool, developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in cooperation with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). The HAZUS tool provides an approach to quantifying future earthquake losses that is national in scope, uniform in application, and comprehensive in its coverage of the built environment.

Report

EO-1 Hyperion reflectance time series at calibration and validation sites: stability and sensitivity to seasonal dynamics

This study evaluated Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) Hyperion reflectance time series at established calibration sites to assess the instrument stability and suitability for monitoring vegetation functional parameters. Our analysis using three pseudo-invariant calibration sites in North America indicated that the reflectance time series are devoid of apparent spectral trends and their stability consistently is within 2.5-5 percent throughout most of the spectral range spanning the 12+ year data record. Using three vegetated sites instrumented with eddy covariance towers, the Hyperion reflectance time series were evaluated for their ability to determine important variables of ecosystem function. A number of narrowband and derivative vegetation indices (VI) closely described the seasonal profiles in vegetation function and ecosystem carbon exchange (e.g., net and gross ecosystem productivity) in three very different ecosystems, including a hardwood forest and tallgrass prairie in North America, and a Miombo woodland in Africa. Our results demonstrate the potential for scaling the carbon flux tower measurements to local and regional landscape levels. The VIs with stronger relationships to the CO 2 parameters were derived using continuous reflectance spectra and included wavelengths associated with chlorophyll content and/or chlorophyll fluorescence. Since these indices cannot be calculated from broadband multispectral instrument data, the opportunity to exploit these spectrometer-based VIs in the future will depend on the launch of satellites such as EnMAP and HyspIRI. This study highlights the practical utility of space-borne spectrometers for characterization of the spectral stability and uniformity of the calibration sites in support of sensor cross-comparisons, and demonstrates the potential of narrowband VIs to track and spatially extend ecosystem functional status as well as carbon processes measured at flux towers.

Nevada

Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau

Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km 2 (~3,468 mi 2 ) area, was preserved in 1872 as the world’s first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Rimmed by a crescent of older mountainous terrain, Yellowstone National Park has at its core the Quaternary Yellowstone Plateau, an undulating landscape shaped by forces of late Cenozoic explosive and effusive volcanism, on-going tectonism, glaciation, and hydrothermal activity. The Yellowstone Caldera is the centerpiece of the Yellowstone Plateau. The Yellowstone Plateau lies at the most northeastern front of the 17-Ma Yellowstone hot spot track, one of the few places on Earth where time-transgressive processes on continental crust can be observed in the volcanic and tectonic (faulting and uplift) record at the rate and direction predicted by plate motion. Over six days, this field trip presents an intensive overview into volcanism, tectonism, and hydrothermal activity on the Yellowstone Plateau (fig. 1). Field stops are linked directly to conceptual models related to monitoring of the various volcanic, geochemical, hydrothermal, and tectonic aspects of the greater Yellowstone system. Recent interest in young and possible future volcanism at Yellowstone as well as new discoveries and synthesis of previous studies, (for example, tomographic, deformation, gas, aeromagnetic, bathymetric, and seismic surveys), provide a framework in which to discuss volcanic, hydrothermal, and seismic activity in this dynamic region.

Yellowstone Plateau

Water resources inventory of Connecticut Part 2: Shetucket River Basin

The Shetucket River basin has a relatively abundant supply of water of generally good quality which is derived from precipitation that has fallen on the basin. Annual precipitation has ranged from about 30 inches to 75 inches and has averaged about 45 inches over a 35-year period. Approximately 20 inches of water are returned to the atmosphere each year by evaporation and transpiration; the remainder of the annual precipitation either flows overland to streams or percolates downward to the water table and ultimately flows out of the basin in the Shetucket River or as underflow through the deposits beneath. During the autumn and winter months precipitation normally is sufficient to cause a substantial increase in the amount of water stored underground and in surface reservoirs within the basins whereas in the summer most of the precipitation is lost through evaporation and transpiration, resulting in sharply reduced streamflow and lowered groundwater levels. The mean monthly storage of water in the basin on an average is 3.5 inches higher in November than it is in June. The amount of water that flows out of the basin in the Shetucket River represents the total amount of water potentlally available for use by man. Annual runoff from the entire basin above the Quinebaug River has ranged from about 13 to 42 inches since 1929, and has averaged about 23 inches (300 billion gallons). Although runoff indicates the total amount of water potentially available, it is usually not economically or legally feasible for man to use all of it. On the other hand, with increased development, It is possible that some water will be reused several times. The water available may be tapped as it flows through the area or is temporarily stored in streams, lakes, and aquifers. The amounts that can be developed vary from place to place and time to time, depending on the amount of precipitation, on the size of drainage area, on the thickness, permeability and areal extent of aquifers, and on the variations in chemical and physical quality of the water. Differences in streamflow from point to point are due primarily to differences in the proportion of stratified drift in the drainage basin above each point, which affect the timing of streamflow, and to differences in precipitation, which affect the amount of streamflow. Information on streamflow from gaging stations may be extended to ungaged sites by accounting for both of these factors ,in calculations. Future floods on the upper Willimantic River or the Shetucket River are unlikely to cause major damage so long as buildings are not constructed below the highest flood elevations to be expected with the present system of reservoirs for flood control. Ground water can be obtained from wells almost anywhere in the Shetucket River basin, but the amount obtainable from individual wells at any particular point depends upon the type and water-bearing properties of the aquifers present. For practical purposes, the earth materials in the basin comprise three aquifers--stratified drift, till, and bedrock, Stratified drift is the only aquifer generally capable of yielding more than 100 gpm to individual wells. This aquifer covers about 18 percent of the basin and occurs chiefly In lowlands where it overlies till or bedrock. Coefficient of permeability of the coarse-grained unit of stratified drift averages about 1,900 gpd per sq ft. Drilled, screened wells tapping this unit, are known to yield from 200 to 675 gpm. Dug wells in coarse-grained stratified drift should supply at least 2 gpm per foot of drawdown over an 8-hour period. Fine-grained stratified drift has an average coefficient of permeability of about 400 gpd per sq ft and can usually yield to dug wells supplies sufficient for household use. Till and bedrock are widespread in extent but can provide only small to moderate water supplies. Till is tapped chiefly by dug wells; permanent supplies of more than 200 gpd can be obtained from dug wells at a majority of sites in areas of till, but there are many sites where the till is too impermeable or too thin to provide this much water throughout the year. The coefficient of permeability of till ranges from about 0.2 gpd per sq ft to 55 gpd per sq it. Bedrock Is tapped chiefly by drilled wells, about 90 percent of which will supply at least 3 gpm. Very few, however, will supply more than 50 gpm. The amount of ground water potentially available In an area depends upon the amount of groundwater outflow, the amount of ground water in storage, and the quantity of water available by Induced infiltration from streams and lakes. From data on permeability, saturated thickness, recharge, yield from aquifer storage, well performance, and streamflow, preliminary estimates of ground-water availability can be made for any point in the basin. Long-term yields estimated for 15 areas especially favorable for development of large ground-water supplies ranged from 1.3 to 61.8 mgd. Detailed site studies to determine optimum yields, drawdowns, and spacing of individual wells are needed before major ground-water development is undertaken In these or other areas. The chemical quality of water in the Shetucket basin Is generally good to excellent. Samples of naturally occurring surface water collected from 32 sites contained less than 61 ppm of dissolved solids and less than 32 ppm of hardness. Water from wells is more highly mineralized than naturally occurring water from streams. Even so only 7 percent of wells sampled yielded water with more than 200 ppm of dissolved sol-ids and only 9 percent yielded water with more than 120 ppm of hardness. Even in the major rivers, which are used to transport industrial waste, the dissolved mineral content is less than 100 ppm and hardness rarely exceeds 40 ppm. One notable exception occurs in the lower reaches of Little River where an exceptional amount of industrial waste is discharged into the river near Versailles. This waste is particularly noticeable during low streamflow. Iron and manganese In both ground water and surface water are the only constituents whose concentrations commonly exceed recommended limits for domestic and industrial use. Most wells in the basin yield clear water with little or no iron or manganese, but distributed among them are wells with ground water that contains enough of these dissolved constituents to be troublesome for most uses. iron concentrations in naturally occurring stream water exceeded 0.3 ppm under tow-flow conditions at 20 percent of the sites sampled. Large concentrations of iron in stream water result from discharge of iron-bearing ground water or from the discharge of water from swamps. In swamps the iron is released largely from decaying vegetation. Ground water more than 30 feet below the land surface has a relatively constant temperature, usually between 48°F and 50°F. Water temperature in very shallow wells may fluctuate from about 38°F in February or March to about 55°F in late summer. Water temperature in the larger streams fluctuates much more widely, ranging from 32°F at least for brief periods in winter, to about 85°F occasionally during The quantity of suspended sediment transported by streams in the basin is negligible, though amounts large enough to be troublesome may occur locally at times. The total amount of water used In the Shetucket Rlver basin for all purposes during 1961 was about 5,810 million gallons~ which is equivalent to 208 gpd per person, Public water systems supplied the domestic needs of nearly half the population of the basin; 10 systems were sampled, all of which provided water of better quality than the U.S. Public Health Service suggests for drinking water standards.

Connecticut

Combined impacts of current and future dust deposition and regional warming on Colorado River Basin snow dynamics and hydrology

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in seven western states and two countries and to 5.5 million irrigated acres. The river has long been overallocated. Climate models project runoff losses of 5–20% from the basin by mid-21st century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown that decreased snow albedo from anthropogenic dust loading to the CO mountains shortens the duration of snow cover by several weeks relative to conditions prior to western expansion of the US in the mid-1800s, and advances peak runoff at Lees Ferry, Arizona, by an average of 3 weeks. Increases in evapotranspiration from earlier exposure of soils and germination of plants have been estimated to decrease annual runoff by more than 1.0 billion cubic meters, or ~5% of the annual average. This prior work was based on observed dust loadings during 2005–2008; however, 2009 and 2010 saw unprecedented levels of dust loading on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), being on the order of 5 times the 2005–2008 loading. Building on our prior work, we developed a new snow albedo decay parameterization based on observations in 2009/10 to mimic the radiative forcing of extreme dust deposition. We convolve low, moderate, and extreme dust/snow albedos with both historic climate forcing and two future climate scenarios via a delta method perturbation of historic records. Compared to moderate dust, extreme dust absorbs 2× to 4× the solar radiation, and shifts peak snowmelt an additional 3 weeks earlier to a total of 6 weeks earlier than pre-disturbance. The extreme dust scenario reduces annual flow volume an additional 1% (6% compared to pre-disturbance), a smaller difference than from low to moderate dust scenarios due to melt season shifting into a season of lower evaporative demand. The sensitivity of flow timing to dust radiative forcing of snow albedo is maintained under future climate scenarios, but the sensitivity of flow volume reductions decreases with increased climate forcing. These results have implications for water management and suggest that dust abatement efforts could be an important component of any climate adaptation strategies in the UCRB.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Global seismic networks operated by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Seismographic Network (GSN) Program operates two thirds of the GSN, a network of state‐of‐the‐art, digital seismological and geophysical sensors with digital telecommunications. This network serves as a multiuse scientific facility and a valuable resource for research, education, and monitoring. The other one third of the GSN is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the operations of this component are overseen by EarthScope. This collaboration between the USGS, EarthScope, and NSF has allowed for the development and operations of the GSN to be a truly multiuse network that provides near real‐time open access data, facilitating fundamental discoveries by the Earth science community, supporting the earthquake hazards mission of the USGS, benefitting tsunami monitoring by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and contributing to nuclear test monitoring and treaty verification. In this article, we describe the installation and evolution of the seismic networks operated by the USGS that ultimately led to the USGS portion of the GSN (100 stations under network codes IU, IC, and CU) as they are today and envision technological advances and opportunities to further improve the utility of the network in the future. This article focuses on the USGS‐operated component of the GSN; a companion article on the GSN stations funded by the NSF and operated by the Cecil and Ida Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego by Davis et al. (2023) appears in this volume.

Seismological Research Letters

The story of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory -- A remarkable first 100 years of tracking eruptions and earthquakes

The year 2012 marks the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the support and cooperation of visionaries, financiers, scientists, and other individuals and organizations, HVO has successfully achieved 100 years of continuous monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes. As we celebrate this milestone anniversary, we express our sincere mahalo—thanks—to the people who have contributed to and participated in HVO’s mission during this past century. First and foremost, we owe a debt of gratitude to the late Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., the geologist whose vision and efforts led to the founding of HVO. We also acknowledge the pioneering contributions of the late Frank A. Perret, who began the continuous monitoring of Kīlauea in 1911, setting the stage for Jaggar, who took over the work in 1912. Initial support for HVO was provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Carnegie Geophysical Laboratory, which financed the initial cache of volcano monitoring instruments and Perret’s work in 1911. The Hawaiian Volcano Research Association, a group of Honolulu businessmen organized by Lorrin A. Thurston, also provided essential funding for HVO’s daily operations starting in mid-1912 and continuing for several decades. Since HVO’s beginning, the University of Hawaiʻi (UH), called the College of Hawaii until 1920, has been an advocate of HVO’s scientific studies. We have benefited from collaborations with UH scientists at both the Hilo and Mänoa campuses and look forward to future cooperative efforts to better understand how Hawaiian volcanoes work. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated HVO continuously since 1947. Before then, HVO was under the administration of various Federal agencies—the U.S. Weather Bureau, at the time part of the Department of Agriculture, from 1919 to 1924; the USGS, which first managed HVO from 1924 to 1935; and the National Park Service from 1935 to 1947. For 76 of its first 100 years, HVO has been part of the USGS, the Nation’s premier Earth science agency. It currently operates under the direction of the USGS Volcano Science Center, which now supports five volcano observatories covering six U.S. areas—Hawaiʻi (HVO), Alaska and the Northern Mariana Islands (Alaska Volcano Observatory), Washington and Oregon (Cascades Volcano Observatory), California (California Volcano Observatory), and the Yellowstone region (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory). Although the National Park Service (NPS) managed HVO for only 12 years, HVO has enjoyed a close working relationship with Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park (named Hawaii National Park until 1961) since the park’s founding in 1916. Today, as in past years, the USGS and NPS work together to ensure the safety and education of park visitors. We are grateful to all park employees, particularly Superintendent Cindy Orlando and Chief Ranger Talmadge Magno and their predecessors, for their continuing support of HVO’s mission. HVO also works closely with the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense. During volcanic and earthquake crises, we have appreciated the support of civil defense staff, especially that of Harry Kim and Quince Mento, who administered the agency during highly stressful episodes of Kīlauea's ongoing eruption. Our work in remote areas on Hawaiʻi’s active volcanoes is possible only with the able assistance of Hawaiʻi County and private pilots who have safely flown HVO staff to eruption sites through the decades. A special mahalo goes to David Okita, who has been HVO’s principal helicopter pilot for more than two decades. Many commercial and Civil Air Patrol pilots have also assisted HVO by reporting their observations during various eruptive events. Hawaiʻi’s news media—print, television, radio, and online sources—do an excellent job of distributing volcano and earthquake information to the public. Their assistance is invaluable to HVO, especially during times of crisis. HVO’s efforts to provide timely and accurate scientific information about Hawaiian volcanoes and earthquakes succeed only because of you, our receptive and keenly aware public. By following the activity of Hawaiʻi’s active volcanoes through our daily eruption updates posted on the HVO website, viewing HVO webcam images, reading our weekly “Volcano Watch” articles, and attending our public lectures, you help us to ensure that you can live safely with Hawaiʻi’s dynamic volcanoes. To everyone who has shared in HVO’s reaching this milestone—100 years of continuous volcano monitoring—we extend our deepest gratitude. Mahalo nui loa!

Hawai'i

Engineering uses of physics-based ground motion simulations

This paper summarizes validation methodologies focused on enabling ground motion simulations to be used with confidence in engineering applications such as seismic hazard analysis and dynmaic analysis of structural and geotechnical systems. Numberical simullation of ground motion from large erthquakes, utilizing physics-based models of earthquake rupture and wave propagation, is an area of active research in the earth science community. Refinement and validatoin of these models require collaboration between earthquake scientists and engineering users, and testing/rating methodolgies for simulated ground motions to be used with confidence in engineering applications. This paper provides an introduction to this field and an overview of current research activities being coordinated by the Souther California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These activities are related both to advancing the science and computational infrastructure needed to produce ground motion simulations, as well as to engineering validation procedures. Current research areas and anticipated future achievements are also discussed.

Conference Paper

Characterisation of the Permafrost Carbon Pool

The current estimate of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool in the northern permafrost region of 1672 Petagrams (Pg) C is much larger than previously reported and needs to be incorporated in global soil carbon (C) inventories. The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD), extended to include the range 0–300 cm, is now available online for wider use by the scientific community. An important future aim is to provide quantitative uncertainty ranges for C pool estimates. Recent studies have greatly improved understanding of the regional patterns, landscape distribution and vertical (soil horizon) partitioning of the permafrost C pool in the upper 3 m of soils. However, the deeper C pools in unconsolidated Quaternary deposits need to be better constrained. A general lability classification of the permafrost C pool should be developed to address potential C release upon thaw. The permafrost C pool and its dynamics are beginning to be incorporated into Earth System models, although key periglacial processes such as thermokarst still need to be properly represented to obtain a better quantification of the full permafrost C feedback on global climate change.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes

Application of a rule-based model to estimate mercury exchange for three background biomes in the continental United States

Ecosystems that have low mercury (Hg) concentrations (i.e., not enriched or impactedbygeologic or anthropogenic processes) cover most of the terrestrial surface area of the earth yet their role as a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg is uncertain. Here we use empirical data to develop a rule-based model implemented within a geographic information system framework to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of Hg flux for semiarid deserts, grasslands, and deciduous forests representing 45% of the continental United States. This exercise provides an indication of whether these ecosystems are a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg as well as a basis for recommendation of data to collect in future field sampling campaigns. Results indicated that soil alone was a small net source of atmospheric Hg and that emitted Hg could be accounted for based on Hg input by wet deposition. When foliar assimilation and wet deposition are added to the area estimate of soil Hg flux these biomes are a sink for atmospheric Hg. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology

Earthquakes

One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

General Interest Publication