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Simulated effects of anticipated coal mining on dissolved solids in selected tributaries of the Yampa River, northwestern Colorado

Identifying cumulative effects of coal mining on dissolved solids downstream from multipe coal-mining operations is particularly important in western basins. The problem of identifying cumulative effects is evident in the Trout Creek drainage, a tributary to the Yampa River in northwestern Colorado, where a number of mines are active and mine expansions are planned. As an evaluation tool, a model was developed and calibrated for the Trout Creek drainage and a reach of the Yampa River main stem. This model uses a series of nodes on the stream network to sum water quantity and quality through the network. The model operates on a monthly basis and uses data from water years 1976 to 1981. Output is mean monthly discharge, dissolved-solids concentration, and dissolved-solids load. Observed data are needed to initiate the model and for model calibration. Some data were extrapolated from records of nearby streamflow-gaging stations. Some nodes within the stream network were for inputs from anticipated mining and were inactive during calibrations. After calibration, these nodes were used to input water discharge at a given dissolved-solids concentration to reflect various future mine configurations. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Study plan for urban stream indicator sites of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Urban Indicator Sites are one component of the U.S. Geological Survey�s National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The objectives of monitoring at the Urban Indicator Sites are to: (1) characterize stream quality from drainage basins with predominantly residential and commercial land use, and (2) determine which selected natural and human factors most strongly affect stream quality. Urban Indicator Sites will be distributed across the United States in settings with statistically different climate and in metropolitan areas that have a population of 250,000 or more. Multiple sites in the same climatic setting will have a range in population density. Ideally, Urban Indicator Sites will monitor drainage basins that have only residential and commercial land use, are 50 square kilometers or larger, are in the same physiographic setting as other Indicator Sites, have sustained flow, and overlap other NAWQA study components. Ideal drainage basins will not have industrial or agricultural land use and will not have point-source-contamination discharges. Stream quality will be characterized by collecting and analyzing samples of streamflow, bed sediment, and tissue of aquatic organisms for selected constituents. Factors affecting stream quality will be determined by statistical analysis of ancillary data associated with Urban Indicator Sites and stream-quality samples.

Open-File Report

Water-quality characteristics of streams in the Treyburn Development area of Falls Lake watershed, North Carolina, 1988-93

Treyburn is a 5,400 acre planned, mixed-use community located in the Falls Lake watershed in the upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina. From February 1988 through 1993, hydrologic-data were collected at 17 study sites in or near the Treyburn development to compare the effects of varying types of land-use development on the water-quality of streams flowing in or near the development. The collected hydrologic data included measurements of streamflow and concentrations of major dissolved constituents, nutrients, minor elements, and organic compounds. Streamflow in the study basin was approximately 40 percent lower in 1992 and 40 percent higher in 1993 than the long-term annual mean of the long-term discharge records at Flat River in Bahama. Calcium and bicarbonate were the predominant cation and anion at all study sites except one. Mean total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at sites in the Treyburn development ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 and 0.03 to 0.10 milligrams per liter, respectively. Total aluminum, iron, and manganese were the metals most frequently detected in the 200 organic compunds analyzed. Dichloro- difluoromethane and methylene chloride were detected most often.

North Carolina

Water use in Kansas, 1990-2000

This fact sheet compares water use in 1990, 1995, and 2000 for the 12 major river basins in Kansas. Of these 3 years, irrigation water use was largest in 1990 and smallest in 1995, largely because of differing climatic conditions. Irrigation averaged about 85 percent of total water use in Kansas each year, and ground water pumped in the western part of the State provided most of the irrigation water used. Water use for public supply, industry, and livestock increased between 1990 and 2000. Total State population increased 8 percent between 1990 and 2000, and the number of people served by public water suppliers increased 12 percent. Surface water withdrawn for public supply increased 24 percent because of population growth in the northeastern and south-central parts of the State and decreasing reliance on ground water by the city of Wichita. From 1990 to 2000, ground-water withdrawals for livestock and meat processing increased in western Kansas, and surface-water withdrawals for sand dredging increased in eastern Kansas. This fact sheet was produced as part of an ongoing cooperative program supported in part by the Kansas State Water Plan Fund.

Fact Sheet

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Silver Creek and selected tributaries associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 2022–24

A hydrologic model of the Silver Creek Basin in southwest Illinois, and a hydraulic model of a selected reach of Silver Creek and local tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, were developed to assess the effects of temporal land-use development in the Silver Creek Basin, the potential effects of projected changes based on future precipitation, and the effects of added detention storage in selected tributaries near Scott Air Force Base. The hydrologic model consists of a total of 52 scenarios—24 scenarios for an assessment of basin-wide changes in hydrology, and 28 scenarios for the hydraulic analysis of a focus area of Silver Creek and tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base. Scenarios were run for precipitation events of 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals (50-percent through 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability) and 24-hour durations. The effects of detention structures added to Silver Creek tributaries throughout Scott Air Force Base were greater on water-level profiles (about 1 to 3 feet) than the effects of projected (2050) changes in precipitation (about 1 foot or less) in these basins. The results indicated that despite the increases in water-surface elevations resulting from projected increases in precipitation, the detention structures could provide a net reduction in water-surface elevations in the flood-prone western tributaries on the base. The effects of detention structures and projected precipitation also were assessed using the mapped extent of inundation for the simulated probabilistic precipitation scenarios. As an example, limited inundation of a residential area along Ash Creek was evident in the 5-year recurrence interval event for the scenarios without detention storage, whereas the first indications of flooding in the residential area from the scenario with detention storage were in the 50-year recurrence interval event. Changes in hydrologic conditions followed a spatial pattern similar to that of the changes in land-cover development, with the greatest changes in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most pronounced in subbasins on and surrounding Scott Air Force Base. There was up to an estimated 54.6-percent increase in peak streamflows in subbasins on or near Scott Air Force Base from historical (1992) to current (2019) conditions, but changes in peak streamflows of as much as 144 percent are anticipated under the planned (to about 2050) land cover plus projected (2050) precipitation. The changes in the timing of peak streamflows were towards earlier peaks, with cumulative changes between historical and projected conditions approaching 0.75 hour (45 minutes) for a 2-year recurrence interval event. Results of the percentage change in cumulative event volume were similar to those of percentage change in peak streamflows in terms of magnitude of change and temporal and spatial distribution of changes. The greatest magnitude of percentage change in the assessed hydrologic properties was associated with the 2-year recurrence interval event, and the magnitude of the percentage change decreased with increasing probabilistic event recurrence interval. Subbasins with a substantial change in runoff yield between historical and current conditions were primarily in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most were within or adjacent to Scott Air Force Base. The magnitude of runoff yield changes increased with recurrence interval, and maximum changes were associated with subbasins on base and with the changes between the historical and current conditions.

Illinois

Hydrologic data from the study of acidic contamination in the Miami Wash-Pinal Creek area, Arizona, water years 1992-93

Since 1984, hydrologic data have been collected as part of a U.S. Geological Survey study of the occurrence and movement of acidic contamination in the aquifer and streams of the Pinal Creek drainage basin near Globe, Arizona. Ground-water data from that study are presented for water years 1992 and 1993 and include location, construction information, site plans, water levels, chemical and physical field measurements, and selected chemical analyses of water samples for 10 monitoring well groups. During January 1993, a flood occurred in Pinal Creek that resulted in a record peak discharge of 5,700 cubic feet per second. During this flood, well group 450 was destroyed. Surface-water data are presented for 13 sites and include discharge measurements, chemical and physical field measure- ments, and chemical analyses of water. Data from a solute-transport study that was conducted in November 1992 are presented for shallow ground-water and surface-water sites along Pinal Creek. During this study, variations in metal chemistry with distance along Pinal Creek and depth below the streambed were determined and two filter sizes were used to quantify the partitioning of metals between dissolved and particulate phases. Monthly precipi- tation data and long-term precipitation statistics are presented for two sites.

Arizona

Sand Creek characterization study for Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado

The Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (Rio Grande cutthroat trout, RGCT) has undergone extensive declines in distribution and population. The RGCT is the southernmost distributed subspecies of cutthroat trout. Native to the Rio Grande Basin in Colorado and New Mexico, the subspecies is also found in the headwaters of the Pecos River and Canadian River basins in New Mexico. Currently, RGCT populations represent approximately 12 percent of the historic distribution. There are many factors that have contributed to the decline of the RGCT including small population sizes; hybridization with non-native salmonids; competition with non-native salmonids; angling; and loss of habitat resulting from wildfire, stream drying, disease, increased water temperatures; and poor land management. The eastern side of Colorado’s Rio Grande Basin is also home to Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the Sand Creek watershed. This study was designed to (1) characterize current physical and biological conditions of waterbodies within the Sand Creek watershed, from headwaters to lower terminus near the dune field; (2) characterize the spatial extent of existing fisheries within the Sand Creek watershed to inform the scope of potential future reclamation efforts; and (3) evaluate key limiting factors for a future native RGCT reintroduction. Bathymetric profiles were completed for two lakes within the upper Sand Creek drainage to characterize the physical geometry of each lake and to estimate the total lake volume required for future piscicide treatment and (or) fish removal efforts. Physical and biological conditions evaluated included stream water temperature and intermittency, discharge, and the genetics and existing fish community distribution and composition within the Sand Creek watershed were key components of this study. A baseline established the geographic extent and biological constraints factored into future piscicide treatment planning and native trout reintroduction efforts. As a result of this work, the Sand Creek watershed can be broken up into several distinct categories: Lakes that are good candidates for reclamation and reintroduction of RGCT, lakes that are poor candidates for reclamation, streams that currently have fish and are good candidates for reclamation and reintroduction, streams that currently lack fish and may be good candidates for introduction of RGCT, and streams that currently lack fish and are not good candidates for introduction of RGCT. This characterization study report is intended to inform State and Federal managers of the likelihood that the Sand Creek watershed can support a sustainable population of RGCT should they be reintroduced.

Colorado

Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model

The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Mathematical Geosciences

2023 Coastal master plan: ICM-wetlands – Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) updates

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) provides critical structural habitat for valuable nekton and wildlife species across coastal ecosystems and can buffer the negative effects of land loss. Landscape change and restoration efforts across coastal Louisiana can impact the occurrence, coverage, and species assemblages of SAV, and changes to these foundational species can have cascading impacts across food webs. To support the 2023 Coastal Master Plan efforts, a unique SAV model was developed to assess coverage and occurrence of SAV across aquatic waterbodies in response to environmental variables evaluated. This effort created a spatial model describing the probability of presence of SAV across the study area in response to changing conditions over the modeled time period. To develop the initial coverage data layer, we used remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and modified Normalized Difference Water Index (mNDWI) data from 2015-2018 to identify areas containing variable vegetation and water spectral reflectance. Key environmental variables evaluated included total suspended sediments (TSS), salinity, and physical exposure. Seasonal estimates for TSS and salinity were used, as research indicates that seasonal environmental variability is a significant driver for SAV establishment. Seasonal salinity was derived from Coast-wide Reference Monitoring Station (CRMS) data, and seasonal TSS was estimated from hyperspectral imagery. Estimates of physical exposure have previously been provided by calculating fetch (the distance across water over which waves can propagate), but this proved to be too computationally intensive to be feasible, and we found distance to land to be a reasonable proxy for exposure. To represent geographic conditions and historical factors influences on SAV establishment and occurrence (e.g., variables too numerous and complex to model) we developed a basin variable that served as a proxy for complex historical, or prior, conditions, determined by the forested, fresh, intermediate, brackish, or saline (FFIBS) score. The final model included spring TSS, spring salinity, distance to land, and the basin prior. The model performed well for the area evaluated, correctly classifying SAV (as present or absent) 89% of the time (Kappa = 580). SAV probability of presence responded as expected to change in these environmental variables, with likelihood of occurrence decreasing in response to increasing spring TSS, spring salinity, and distance to land. However, the model was more accurate at predicting absence (true negative = 0.940) than predicting presence (true positive = 0.626), suggesting that the scale of the model may limit the ability to predict presence. Moreover, the simplicity of the model limited the accuracy in highly dynamic environments, for example near the outflow of diversions or areas of significant changes in salinity or TSS. Through incorporating underwater communities like SAV, this master plan provides a holistic view of coastal change and restoration. To create healthy ecological structure and function in wetland habitats, the submergent communities must be considered alongside the emergent habitats. As the benefits of SAV are increasingly recognized, both here in Louisiana and beyond, SAV restoration and the use of SAV communities in assessing and improving ecological condition are becoming more common.

Louisiana

Water resources of Bannock Creek basin, southeastern Idaho

The potential for development of water resources in the Bannock Creek Basin is limited by water supply. Bannock Creek Basin covers 475 square miles in southeastern Idaho. Shoshone-Bannock tribal lands on the Fort Hall Indian Reservation occupy the northern part of the basin; the remainder of the basin is privately owned. Only a small amount of information on the hydrologic and water-quality characteristics of Bannock Creek Basin is available, and two previous estimates of water yield from the basin ranged widely from 45,000 to 132,500 acre-feet per year. The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes need an accurate determination of water yield and baseline water-quality characteristics to plan and implement a sustainable level of water use in the basin. Geologic setting, quantities of precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface-water runoff, recharge, and ground-water underflow were used to determine water yield in the basin. Water yield is the annual amount of surface and ground water available in excess of evapotranspiration by crops and native vegetation. Water yield from Bannock Creek Basin was affected by completion of irrigation projects in 1964. Average 1965-89 water yield from five subbasins in Bannock Creek Basin determined from water budgets was 60,600 acre-feet per year. Water yield from the Fort Hall Indian Reservation part of Bannock Creek Basin was estimated to be 37,700 acre-feet per year. Water from wells, springs, and streams is a calcium bicarbonate type. Concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and fluoride were less than Maximum Contaminant Levels for public drinking-water supplies established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Large concentrations of chloride and nitrogen in water from several wells, springs, and streams likely are due to waste from septic tanks or stock animals. Estimated suspended-sediment load near the mouth of Bannock Creek was 13,300 tons from December 1988 through July 1989. Suspended-sediment discharge was greatest during periods of high streamflow.

Idaho

Assessment of sediments in the riverine impoundments of national wildlife refuges in the Souris River Basin, North Dakota

Accelerated sedimentation of reservoirs and riverine impoundments is a major concern throughout the United States. Sediments not only fill impoundments and reduce their effective life span, but they can reduce water quality by increasing turbidity and introducing harmful chemical constituents such as heavy metals, toxic elements, and nutrients. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges in the north-central part of the United States have documented high amounts of sediment accretion in some wetlands that could negatively affect important aquatic habitats for migratory birds and other wetland-dependent wildlife. Therefore, information pertaining to sediment accumulation in refuge impoundments potentially is important to guide conservation planning, including future management actions of individual impoundments. Lands comprising Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges, collectively known as the Souris River Basin refuges, encompass reaches of the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers of northwestern North Dakota. The riverine impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges are vulnerable to sedimentation because of the construction of in-stream dams that interrupt and slow river flows and because of post-European settlement land-use changes that have increased the potential for soil erosion and transport to rivers. Information regarding sediments does not exist for these refuges, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service personnel have expressed interest in assessing refuge impoundments to support refuge management decisions. Sediment cores and surface sediment samples were collected from impoundments within Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges during 2004–05. Cores were used to estimate sediment accretion rates using radioisotope (cesium-137 [ 137 Cs], lead-210 [ 210 Pb]) dating techniques. Sediment cores and surface samples were analyzed for a suite of elements and agrichemicals, respectively. Examination of core characteristics along the depth profile suggests that there has been regular sediment mixing and removal, as well as non-uniform sediment deposition with time. Estimated mean accretion rates based on the three methods of determination (two time markers for 137 Cs, 210 Pb) ranged from 0.22–0.35 centimeters per year, and approximately 70 percent of cores had less 137 Cs than expected. Concentrations of sediment-associated elements generally were within reported reference ranges, and all agrichemicals analyzed were below detection limits. Results suggest that there does not appear to be widespread sediment accumulation in impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges. In addition, there were no identifiable patterns among sedimentation rates from the upstream (Des Lacs, Upper Souris) to the downstream (J. Clark Salyer) refuges. There were, however, apparent upstream to downstream patterns of increased concentrations of some elements (for example, aluminum, boron, and vanadium) that may warrant further exploration. Future related monitoring and research efforts should focus on areas with high potential for sediment accumulation, such as upstream areas adjacent to dams, to identify potential sediment problems before they become too severe. Further, assessments of suspended sediments transported in the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers would augment interpretation of sedimentation data by identifying potential sediment sources and areas with the greatest potential for accumulation.

North Dakota

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

Hydrologic index development and application to selected Coastwide Reference Monitoring System sites and Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act projects

Hourly time-series salinity and water-level data are collected at all stations within the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) network across coastal Louisiana. These data, in addition to vegetation and soils data collected as part of CRMS, are used to develop a suite of metrics and indices to assess wetland condition in coastal Louisiana. This document addresses the primary objectives of the CRMS hydrologic analytical team, which were to (1) adopt standard time-series analytical techniques that could effectively assess spatial and temporal variability in hydrologic characteristics across the Louisiana coastal zone on site, project, basin, and coastwide scales and (2) develop and apply an index based on wetland hydrology that can describe the suitability of local hydrology in the context of maximizing the productivity of wetland plant communities. Approaches to quantifying tidal variability (least squares harmonic analysis) and partitioning variability of time-series data to various time scales (spectral analysis) are presented. The relation between marsh elevation and the tidal frame of a given hydrograph is described. A hydrologic index that integrates water-level and salinity data, which are collected hourly, with vegetation data that are collected annually is developed. To demonstrate its utility, the hydrologic index is applied to 173 CRMS sites across the coast, and variability in index scores across marsh vegetation types (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) is assessed. The index is also applied to 11 sites located in three Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act projects, and the ability of the index to convey temporal hydrologic variability in response to climatic stressors and restoration measures, as well as the effect that this community may have on wetland plant productivity, is illustrated.

Louisiana

Simulated effects of the 2003 permitted withdrawals and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and firm yields of three surface-water supplies, Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts

The Hydrologic Simulation ProgramFORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Ipswich River Basin previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was modified to evaluate the effects of the 2003 withdrawal permits and water-management alternatives on reservoir storage and yields of the Lynn, Peabody, and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. These systems obtain all or part of their water from the Ipswich River Basin. The HSPF model simulated the complex water budgets to the three supply systems, including effects of regulations that restrict withdrawals by the time of year, minimum streamflow thresholds, and the capacity of each system to pump water from the river. The 2003 permits restrict withdrawals from the Ipswich River between November 1 and May 31 to streamflows above a 1.0 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) threshold, to high flows between June 1 and October 31, and to a maximum annual volume. Yields and changes in reservoir storage over the 35-year simulation period (196195) were also evaluated for each system with a hypothetical low-capacity pump, alternative seasonal streamflow thresholds, and withdrawals that result in successive failures (depleted storage). The firm yields, the maximum yields that can be met during a severe drought, calculated for each water-supply system, under the 2003 permitted withdrawals, were 7.31 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for the Lynn, 3.01 Mgal/d for the Peabody, and 7.98 Mgal/d for the SalemBeverly systems; these yields are 31, 49, and 21 percent less than their average 19982000 demands, respectively. The simulations with the same permit restrictions and a hypothetical low-capacity pump for each system resulted in slightly increased yields for the Lynn and SalemBeverly systems, but a slightly decreased yield for the Peabody system. Simulations to evaluate the effects of alternative streamflow thresholds on water supply indicated that firm yields were generally about twice as sensitive to decreases in the NovemberFebruary or MarchMay thresholds than to increases in these thresholds. Firm yields were also generally slightly less sensitive to changes in the NovemberFebruary than to changes in the MarchMay thresholds in the Peabody and SalemBeverly water-supply systems. Decreases in the JuneOctober streamflow threshold did not affect any of the system's firm yield. Simulations of withdrawal rates that resulted in successive near failures during the 196195 period indicated the tradeoff between increased yield and risks. The Lynn and Peabody systems were allowed to near failure up to six times. At the sixth near failure, yields of these systems increased to 10.18 and 4.43 Mgal/d, respectively; these rates increased the amount of water obtained from the Ipswich River Basin (relative to the firm-yield rate), as a percentage of average 19982000 demands, from 68 to 96 percent and from 51 to 75 percent, respectively. The SalemBeverly system was able to meet demands after the third near failure. Reservoir storage was depleted about 6 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the sixth near failure in the Lynn and Peabody system and about 3 percent of the time at the withdrawal rate that caused the third near failure in the SalemBeverly system. Supply systems are at greatest risk of failure from persistent droughts (lasting more than 1 year), but short-term droughts also present risks during the fall and winter when the supply systems are most vulnerable. Uncertainties in model performance, simplification of reservoir systems and their management, and the possibility of droughts of severity greater than simulated in this investigation underscore the fact that the firm yield calculated for each system cannot be considered a withdrawal rate that is absolutely fail-safe. Thus, the consequences of failure are an important consideration in the planning and management of these systems.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeology of recharge areas and water quality of the principal aquifers along the Wasatch Front and adjacent areas, Utah

The principal basin-fill aquifers in Cache Valley, the lower Bear River area, and along the Wasatch Front provide ground water to about 84 percent of the population of Utah. Recharge areas for the principal aquifers were mapped to provide information needed for the implementation of ground-water quality regulations and a State ground-water protection plan. Water samples were collected and analyzed to provide baseline water- quality data for the principal aquifers. The study area includes five subareas: Cache Valley, the 1ower Bear River area, the East Shore area, Salt Lake Valley, and Utah and Goshen Valleys. Basin-fill deposits in each subarea are lithologically heterogeneous. The principal aquifers in most of the subareas are composed of multiple discontinuous unconfined and confined aquifers and confining layers. Primary recharge areas generally are located along adjacent mountain fronts and extend into the valleys at the mouths of major drainages. Secondary recharge areas are located on the benches and uplands of the valleys. Ground-water flow generally is from these recharge areas to the discharge areas in the topographically low parts of the valleys. In general, dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water range from less than 500 mg/L to about 3,000 mg/L. Of 73 water samples, 5 contained inorganic constituents in concentrations that exceeded State of Utah water-quality standards. None of the samples contained concentrations of organic compounds that exceeded State standards.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Artificial recharge in the upper Santa Ana River area, San Bernardino County, California

The San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District began receiving its initial entitlement of 46,000 acre-feet (5.7 x 107 cubic metres) per year of imported northern California water in December 1972. By 1990, the district will be receiving 102,000 acre-feet (1.3 x 108 cubic metres) per year. Plans are to distribute this imported water for artificial recharge to the local ground-water system. The upper Santa Ana River area is well suited for artificial recharge because it is largely underlain by permeable river-channel deposits. Some sandy clay, silt, and cemented sand and gravel layers occur that may locally retard downward percolation of recharge water. However, test drilling indicates none of these is extensive enough to impede recharge in the spreading grounds. Analyses of ground-water movement during current water-spreading operations, test-drilling data, and application of Baumann's (1965) equation for calculating the theoretical size of the recharge mound indicate that (1) barriers to ground-water movement are not evident in the river-channel deposits, (2) depth to the basement complex is less in the area of the eastern spreading basins than in the western basins, (3) the spreading grounds would be capable of accepting a combined total of as much as 80,000 acre-feet (9.9 x 107 cubic metres) per year, and (4) the water being recharged should move through the part of the aquifer composed of river-channel deposits toward the areas of pumpage.

California

Configuration of the Seattle Urban Seismic Array for the February 28, 2001, M6.8, Nisqually earthquake and its aftershocks

This is a description of the configuration of the Seattle Urban Seismic Array (click on thumbnail map to see full size map) at the time of the Nisqually earthquake and its aftershocks (from April 28 through March 3, 2001). The array is operated by the Geologic Hazards Team of the U. S Geological Survey. It has been recording small local earthquakes since its initial installation immediately after the Duvall earthquake in May 1996. Since then, we have been able to convert the array to all Kinemetrics K2s after retiring the aging DR-200s in June of 1998. The array stations have been moved around to suit our research interests. We had 26 instruments in urban Seattle at the time of the Nisqually earthquake. The primary research goal of the array is to record earthquake ground motion at sites scattered around the city that represent the major types of surficial geologic materials found in the city. With this information we plan to draw seismic hazard maps that will show the expected variability of ground shaking throughout the city. Our strategy to achieve our goal includes: 1) sampling ground motion at sites that represent the major geologic materials including man-made fill and alluvial surficial materials, 2) recording high-resolution ground motions from a tripartite array (SDN, SDS, and SDW) with about 200 meter spacing located on man-made fill in the SoDo (South of Downtown) industrial district, 3) recording ground motion in areas with man-made fill and alluvial surficial materials which have a high potential for liquifaction, 4) sampling ground motion at two sites on Capitol Hill (THO, and SEU) that are located near drill holes that have been logged for seismic velocity, 5) Providing long-term continuity at a few sites for comparison and reference, especially SEW and ALK, which are located on Tertiary bedrock. 6) recording ground motion at sites with similar surficial geology both inside and outside the Seattle Basin The configuration of the array is summarized in the accompanying table which is further described below.

Washington

Monitoring and simulation of hydrology, suspended sediment, and nutrients in selected tributary watersheds of Lake Erie, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Erie County, New York, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, collected water-quality samples in nine selected New York tributaries to Lake Erie, computed estimates of suspended sediment and nutrient loads using the R scripting package rloadest and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient loads from these tributaries. This project was undertaken to better understand the water quality of New York’s inputs into eastern Lake Erie. Water-quality samples for suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus were collected at 19 sampling sites in the Lake Erie Basin in New York. Daily and monthly suspended sediment and nutrient loads were computed with regressions of streamflow and suspended sediment and nutrient concentrations using rloadest. SWAT models of nine watersheds were created using publicly available data; and the loads calculated by rloadest. Twenty-six SWAT model scenarios were created to explore the effects that best management practices (BMPs; 21 scenarios), point source discharges (4 scenarios), and green infrastructure (1 scenario) can have on the water quality of the nine tributaries to Lake Erie. BMP scenarios for the watershed models included combinations of agricultural BMPs applied at varying implementation levels across the study watersheds, including cover crops, reduced tillage, nutrient management plans, and filter strips. The BMP scenarios showed small reductions of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The scenarios have variable suspended sediment load results, with both increases and decreases of sediment modeled. The point source scenarios result in lower total phosphorus loads. The green infrastructure scenario shows only minimal reduction of suspended sediment and nutrient loads from the Buffalo River watershed but shows substantial reductions locally.

New York