SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Wildfire”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors in shaping Holocene vegetation and fire regimes in Great Dismal Swamp, eastern USA

The Great Dismal Swamp wetland, spanning >400 km 2 along the Virginia and North Carolina border, was shaped by a complex combination of geomorphic, climatic, and anthropogenic forcings during the last 14,000 years. Pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, and physical properties from sediment cores at seven sites provide a detailed record of the spatial heterogeneity of the wetland and the roles played by natural hydrologic variability, wildfire, and human modification of drainage in shaping vegetation and habitats. Cold-temperate forests occupied regional uplands from at least 13.5–10.3 cal ka BP. Marshes dominated by grasses and other herbaceous taxa began developing along low-elevation streams as early as 10.3 cal ka BP, resulting in accumulation of organic silts. Long-hydroperiod, peat accumulating marshes, with abundant floating aquatic plants, developed as early as 9.6 cal ka BP, as rapid rates of sea-level rise elevated the water table and facilitated wetland development and peat accumulation along stream courses. By the mid-Holocene (c. 7–6.5 cal ka BP), when local sea-level rise began slowing and reached about 12–15 m below present, shorter hydroperiod, peat-accumulating marshes dominated the landscape, with increased wildfire activity. Great Dismal Swamp vegetation shifted from marshes to peat-accumulating forested wetlands by c. 3.7 cal ka BP; these were dominated by varying combinations of Nyssa (tupelo), Taxodium (cypress), and Chamaecyparis thyoides (Atlantic white cedar). Wildfires were infrequent during this time, and the forested wetlands persisted, with minor compositional changes related to climate-driven fluctuations in stream flow, until colonial ditching and logging began in the swamp during the late 18th century. These activities decreased cypress and cedar populations, and, by the mid-20th century, expanded ditching resulted in even drier conditions and expansion of maple-gum (dominated by Acer and Liquidambar ) , and pine-pocosin (dominated by Pinus ) forests. The distribution of these forests differs from that of the late Holocene and represents a fundamental shift in hydrology, peat structure, vegetation, and fire regime due to landscape alterations of the last few centuries.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2017

Multi-temporal LiDAR and Landsat quantification of fire-induced changes to forest structure

Measuring post-fire effects at landscape scales is critical to an ecological understanding of wildfire effects. Predominantly this is accomplished with either multi-spectral remote sensing data or through ground-based field sampling plots. While these methods are important, field data is usually limited to opportunistic post-fire observations, and spectral data often lacks validation with specific variables of change. Additional uncertainty remains regarding how best to account for environmental variables influencing fire effects (e.g., weather) for which observational data cannot easily be acquired, and whether pre-fire agents of change such as bark beetle and timber harvest impact model accuracy. This study quantifies wildfire effects by correlating changes in forest structure derived from multi-temporal Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) acquisitions to multi-temporal spectral changes captured by the Landsat Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager for the 2012 Pole Creek Fire in central Oregon. Spatial regression modeling was assessed as a methodology to account for spatial autocorrelation, and model consistency was quantified across areas impacted by pre-fire mountain pine beetle and timber harvest. The strongest relationship (pseudo-r 2 = 0.86, p < 0.0001) was observed between the ratio of shortwave infrared and near infrared reflectance (d74) and LiDAR-derived estimate of canopy cover change. Relationships between percentage of LiDAR returns in forest strata and spectral indices generally increased in strength with strata height. Structural measurements made closer to the ground were not well correlated. The spatial regression approach improved all relationships, demonstrating its utility, but model performance declined across pre-fire agents of change, suggesting that such studies should stratify by pre-fire forest condition. This study establishes that spectral indices such as d74 and dNBR are most sensitive to wildfire-caused structural changes such as reduction in canopy cover and perform best when that structure has not been reduced pre-fire.

Oregon↗

USGS2006

Atmospheric mercury speciation in Yellowstone National Park

Atmospheric concentrations of elemental mercury (Hg 0 ), reactive gaseous Hg (RGM), and particulate Hg (pHg) concentrations were measured in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), U.S.A. using high resolution, real time atmospheric mercury analyzers (Tekran 2537A, 1130, and 1135). A survey of Hg 0 concentrations at various locations within YNP showed that concentrations generally reflect global background concentrations of 1.5–2.0 ng m − 3 , but a few specific locations associated with concentrated geothermal activity showed distinctly elevated Hg 0 concentrations (about 9.0 ng m − 3 ). At the site of intensive study located centrally in YNP (Canyon Village), Hg 0 concentrations did not exceed 2.5 ng m − 3 ; concentrations of RGM were generally below detection limits of 0.88 pg m − 3 and never exceeded 5 pg m − 3 . Concentrations of pHg ranged from below detection limits to close to 30 pg m −3 . RGM and pHg concentrations were not correlated with any criteria gases (SO 2 , NO x , O 3 ); however pHg was weakly correlated with the concentration of atmospheric particles. We investigated three likely sources of Hg at the intensive monitoring site: numerous geothermal features scattered throughout YNP, re-suspended soils, and wildfires near or in YNP. We examined relationships between the chemical properties of aerosols (as measured using real time, single particle mass spectrometry; aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer; ATOFMS) and concentrations of atmospheric pHg. Based on the presence of particles with distinct chemical signatures of the wildfires, and the absence of signatures associated with the other sources, we concluded that wildfires in the park were the main source of aerosols and associated pHg to our sampling site.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Rapid monitoring of the abundance and spread of exotic annual grasses in the western United States using remote sensing and machine learning

Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio-environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine-learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R 2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30-m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low-to-mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long-term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage-grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗

USGS2021

Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA

Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne lidar to measure sediment redistribution in the 2016 Fish Fire, in the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California, USA. The lidar areas are in two adjacent watersheds, at spatial scales of 900 m 2 to 4 km 2 , respectively. Terrestrial lidar data were acquired prior to rainfall, and two subsequent surveys show erosional change after rainstorms. Two airborne lidar flights occurred (1) 7 months before, and (2) 14 months after the fire ignition, capturing the erosional effects after rainfall. We found hillslope erosion dominated the overall sediment budget in the first rainy season after wildfire. Only 7% of the total erosion came from the active channel bed and channel banks, and the remaining 93% of eroded sediment was derived from hillslopes. Within the channelized portion of the watershed erosion/deposition could be generally described with topographic metrics used in a stream power equation. Observed sediment volumes were compared with four empirical models and one process-based model. We found that the best predictions of sediment volume were obtained from an empirical model developed in the same physiographic region. Moreover, this study showed that post-wildfire erosion rates in the San Gabriel Mountains attain the same magnitude as millennial time scale bedrock erosion rates.

California↗

USGS2023

Midwinter dry spells amplify post-fire snowpack decline

Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite-based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California’s seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020-2021 versus 2001-2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25-71% in two burned sites (2021 and 2022) as measured by in-situ data relative to un-burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi-week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in 2013 and 2022, which we link to persistent high pressure weather regimes, minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post-fire differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California’s snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire.

California↗

USGS2025

Rainfall thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation vary with short-duration rainfall climatology

The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris-flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff-generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris-flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short-duration rainfall-intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much-needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field-based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long-term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris-flow likelihood.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2023

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle . It is where human–environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases . However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area and wildland vegetation . We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003–2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions , there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Nature↗

USGS2024

Contemporary fires are less frequent but more severe in dry conifer forests of the southwestern United States

Wildfires in the southwestern United States are increasingly frequent and severe, but whether these trends exceed historical norms remains contested. Here we combine dendroecological records, satellite-derived burn severity, and field measured tree mortality to compare historical (1700-1880) and contemporary (1985-2020) fire regimes at tree-ring fire-scar sites in Arizona and New Mexico. We found that contemporary fire frequency, including recent, record fire years, is still <20% of historical levels. Since 1985, the fire return interval averages 58.8 years, compared to 11.4 years before 1880. Fire severity, however, has increased. At sites where trees historically survived many fires over centuries, 42% of recent fires resulted in high tree mortality. Suppressed wildfires tended to burn more severely than prescribed burns and wildfires managed for resource benefit. These findings suggest that expanded use of low-severity prescribed and managed fire would help restore forest resilience and historical fire regimes in dry conifer forests.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States

Measurements of post-fire sediment erosion, transport, and deposition collected within 2 years of a wildfire were compiled from the published literature (19272007) for sites across the western United States. Annual post-fire sediment yields were computed and grouped into four measurement methods (hillslope point and plot measurements, channel measurements of suspended-sediment and sediment erosion or deposition volumes). Post-fire sediment yields for each method were then grouped into eight different rainfall regimes. Mean sediment yield from channels (240 t ha-1) was significantly greater than from hillslopes (82 t ha-1). This indicated that on the time scale of wildfire (10100 years) channels were the primary sources of available sediment. A lack of correlation of sediment yield with topographic slope and soil erodibility further suggested that sediment availability may be more important than slope or soil erodibility in predicting post-fire sediment yields. The maximum post-fire sediment yields were comparable to long-term sediment yields from major rivers of the world. Based on 80 years of data from the literature, wildfires have been an important geomorphic agent of landscape change when linked with sufficient rainfall. These effects are limited in spatial scale to the immediate burned area and to downstream channel corridors.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2023

Identifying building locations in the wildland–urban interface before and after fires with convolutional neural networks

Background: Wildland–urban interface (WUI) maps identify areas with wildfire risk, but they are often outdated owing to the lack of building data. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can extract building locations from remote sensing data, but their accuracy in WUI areas is unknown. Additionally, CNNs are computationally intensive and technically complex, making them challenging for end-users, such as those who use or create WUI maps, to apply. Aims: We identified buildings pre- and post-wildfire and estimated building destruction for three California wildfires: Camp, Tubbs and Woolsey. Methods: We evaluated a CNN-based building dataset and a CNN model from a separate commercial vendor to detect buildings from high-resolution imagery. This dataset and model represent to end-users the state of the art of what is readily available for potential WUI mapping. Key results: We found moderate accuracies for the building dataset and the CNN model and a severe underestimation of buildings and their destruction rates where trees occluded buildings. The CNN model performed best post-fire with accuracies ≥73%. Conclusions: Existing CNNs may be used with moderate accuracy for identifying individual buildings post-fire and mapping the extent of the WUI. The implications are, however, that CNNs are too inaccurate for post-fire damage assessments or building counts in the WUI.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2024

Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Background Wildfires are increasing in size and severity due to climate change combined with overstocked forests. Fire increases the likelihood of debris flows, posing significant threats to life, property, and water supplies. Aims We conducted a debris-flow hazard assessment of the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed (SFMW) to answer two questions: (1) where are debris flows most likely to occur; and (2) how much debris might they produce? We also document the influence of fuel treatments on fire severity and debris flows. Methods We modelled post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume in 103 sub-basins for 2-year, 5-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation rainfalls following modelled low-, moderate-, and high-severity wildfires. Key results Post-fire debris-flow likelihoods were >90% in all but the lowest fire and rain scenarios. Sub-basins with fuel treatments had the lowest burn severities, debris-flow likelihoods, and sediment volumes, but treatment effects decreased with increased fire severity and rain intensity. Conclusions Post-fire debris flows with varying debris volumes are likely to occur following wildfire in the SFMW, but fuel treatments can reduce likelihood and volume. Implications Future post-fire debris flows will continue to threaten water supplies, but fuel reduction treatments and debris-flow mitigation provide opportunities to minimise effects.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains

1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can increase carbon uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance carbon release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires. 2. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species, and their combined effects on regional carbon stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. 3. Total ecosystem carbon increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38 – 69% with GCM climate. Differences in carbon uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper treeline, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27 – 215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3 °C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live carbon stocks by 4 – 36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total carbon were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by carbon retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and carbon uptake. 4. Synthesis. Forests in the GYE can maintain a carbon sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live aboveground biomass, and ultimately, ecosystem carbon. Future changes in carbon stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

A chemical and bio‐herbicide mixture increased exotic invaders, both targeted and non‐targeted, across a diversely invaded landscape after fire

Questions Invasive‐plant treatments often target a single or few species, but many landscapes are diversely invaded. Exotic annual grasses (EAGs) increase wildfires and degrade native perennial plant communities in cold‐desert rangelands, and herbicides are thus sprayed to inhibit EAG germination and establishment. We asked how EAG target and non‐target species responded to an herbicide mixture sprayed over a large, topographically diverse landscape after wildfire. We focused on how whole‐community and natural EAG‐pathogen treatment responses varied over years and physical properties of sites. Location Sagebrush steppe of southwest Idaho, USA. Methods We monitored plant cover and diversity in 41 pairs of plots located inside or outside areas (486 ha total) treated with a combined aerial broadcast spray of pre‐emergent herbicide (imazapic) and weed‐suppressive bacteria ( Pseudomonas fluorescens , “MB906”) to target EAGs after wildfires. Results EAG cover and exotic species richness were initially less in treated plots but increased to levels similar to or greater than those of untreated plots by the third post‐treatment year. The EAG pathogen Ustilago bullata was not directly affected by the treatment. The treatment increased exotic perennial forb cover in all plots and exotic annual forb cover in cooler/wetter plots but reduced exotic annual forb cover in warmer/drier plots. Cover of the invasive biennial grass Poa bulbosa decreased more across study years in untreated than treated plots. Among natives, the treatment reduced perennial grass cover and annual forb presence but led to marginal increases in perennial forb cover and, on soils with less gravel, increased shrub presence. Conclusions A treatment targeting a single plant functional group did not achieve lasting success in these diversely invaded communities. Spraying alone did not release native perennials sufficiently to counteract the simultaneous release of secondary invaders and the return of target invaders. Planting or seeding may also be needed to achieve management goals.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

Unprecedented burning in tropical peatlands during the 20th century compared to the previous two millennia

Tropical peatland wildfire incidence has risen in recent decades, driven by drainage for land use and intensified by severe droughts with global climate change. These disturbances have altered vegetation structure, disrupted ecosystem functioning, and increased carbon emissions, particularly in Southeast Asia. However, the long-term history and characteristics of wildfires in tropical peatlands remain largely unknown. Here, we compiled fifty-eight macro-charcoal records from peatlands across the tropics, ranging from lowland forested to montane peatlands, to assess millennia-scale changes and controlling factors of tropical peatland burning. We divided the datasets into four main sub-regions: Neotropical, Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Australasian ecoregions to explore regional variability. Tropical peatlands had high burning levels between 0 and 850 ce , followed by a relatively low and stable period until a marked increase during the 20th century. The general trend in tropical peatland burning follows changes in global temperature, and climate variables that control the length and severity of drought events have a notable influence on peat burning before 1900 ce . During the 20th century, regional differences were observed, with declining fire trends in the Neotropical and Afrotropical regions and increasing fire trends in the Indomalayan and Australasian regions. This difference is likely attributable to human activities, and such intervention is also evident in palm swamps and hardwood swamps under similar wet, weakly seasonal climates. With the increase in anthropogenic pressures on peatlands and greater climate variability, future wildfires in peatlands are likely to become more frequent and widespread across all tropical ecoregions. Conservation and sustainable land-use practices could be used to mitigate and control peatland burning and protect these carbon-rich sinks.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2025

Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗