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Flood-Inundation Maps of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers including the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Southeast Missouri, 2023

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 131.8-mile reach of the Current River and a 44.6-mile reach of the Jacks Fork River, in southeast Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Ozark Foothills Regional Planning Commission and the South Central Ozark Council of Governments. The maps also encompass the 134 miles of the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers within the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, which is the first national park area to protect a river system. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at eight reference USGS streamgages—five on the Current River (USGS station numbers 07064440, 07064533, 07066510, 07067000, and 07068000) and three on the Jacks Fork River (USGS station numbers 07065200, 07065495, and 07066000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at four of these sites (USGS station numbers 07067000, 07068000, 07065495, and 07066000). Flood profiles were computed for seven of the eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models and the remaining reach by a one-dimensional hydraulic model. The models were calibrated by using stage-streamflow relations or streamflow measurements at the USGS streamgages and from high-flow stage measurements from water-level loggers distributed throughout the reaches. The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “action stage” or near bankfull, to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root mean square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated water depths. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri

Computing discharge using the index velocity method

Application of the index velocity method for computing continuous records of discharge has become increasingly common, especially since the introduction of low-cost acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) in 1997. Presently (2011), the index velocity method is being used to compute discharge records for approximately 470 gaging stations operated and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to document and describe techniques for computing discharge records using the index velocity method. Computing discharge using the index velocity method differs from the traditional stage-discharge method by separating velocity and area into two ratings—the index velocity rating and the stage-area rating. The outputs from each of these ratings, mean channel velocity (V) and cross-sectional area (A), are then multiplied together to compute a discharge. For the index velocity method, V is a function of such parameters as streamwise velocity, stage, cross-stream velocity, and velocity head, and A is a function of stage and cross-section shape. The index velocity method can be used at locations where stage-discharge methods are used, but it is especially appropriate when more than one specific discharge can be measured for a specific stage. After the ADVM is selected, installed, and configured, the stage-area rating and the index velocity rating must be developed. A standard cross section is identified and surveyed in order to develop the stage-area rating. The standard cross section should be surveyed every year for the first 3 years of operation and thereafter at a lesser frequency, depending on the susceptibility of the cross section to change. Periodic measurements of discharge are used to calibrate and validate the index rating for the range of conditions experienced at the gaging station. Data from discharge measurements, ADVMs, and stage sensors are compiled for index-rating analysis. Index ratings are developed by means of regression techniques in which the mean cross-sectional velocity for the standard section is related to the measured index velocity. Most ratings are simple-linear regressions, but more complex ratings may be necessary in some cases. Once the rating is established, validation measurements should be made periodically. Over time, validation measurements may provide additional definition to the rating or result in the creation of a new rating. The computation of discharge is the last step in the index velocity method, and in some ways it is the most straight-forward step. This step differs little from the steps used to compute discharge records for stage-discharge gaging stations. The ratings are entered into database software used for records computation, and continuous records of discharge are computed.

Techniques and Methods

Hydrologic effects of proposed changes in management practices, Winnebago Pool, Wisconsin

Various changes in the management practices for the Winnebago pool have been proposed. The objectives of the proposed changes are protecting wetlands adjacent to the lakes in the pool and assuring adequate flow in the Fox River downstream from Lake Winnebago. Three proposed operation plans for the Winnebago pool were studied to determine the effects on lake stage and discharge. A digital reservoir model simulated daily lake stage and discharge from the Winnebago pool. Inflow for this simulation was computed from daily discharge, recorded at Rapide Croche Dam, and daily stage, recorded at Oshkosh. This computed inflow is net inflow, combining the effects of streamflow, precipitation, evaporation, and net ground-water inflow. The model was adapted to simulate operation of the Winnebago pool according to each of the proposed plans. Because the important features of each operation plan were expressed in terms of stages to be attained at certain dates, simulated discharge was adjusted daily to keep simulated lake stage close to that specified in the plan. The simulated lake stage for each of the proposed plans exceeded the allowable maximum in some years. However, the simulated stage exceeded the allowable maximum less frequently and for shorter periods than did the observed stage. For the 61 years simulated (water years 1918-78), the simulated 7-day, 10- year low flow ((57,10) at Rapide Croche Dam was 1,000 ft^/s compared with 900 ft^/s for the observed record. The 7-day, 2-year low flow (Qy 2) was 1,500 ft^/s (simulated) versus 1,600 ft3/s (observed). The model predicted that executing the proposed operation plan would result in monthly Q7 JQ for August and September of 1,100 ft-Vs. This is no change for August and a 12-percent increase for September. In addition, the study illustrated that the discharge from the Winnebago pool could be managed to guarantee that the discharge in the Fox River downstream would not fall below a specified discharge up to 1,500 ft^/s. In most years this would have no effect on the stage of the pool. In a few years there would be a conflict between releasing water from the pool to maintain the desired discharge and maintaining water levels above the required minimum stage. The frequency of this possible conflict varies with the level of discharge desired in the Fox River from 1 year in 60 for a discharge of 1,100 ft^/s to about 1 year in 15 for a discharge of 1,500 ft^/s.

Wisconsin

Geology and ground-water hydrology of the Mokelumne area, California

The Mokelumne River basin of central California comprises portions of the California Trough and the Sierra Nevada section of the Pacific Mountain system. The California Trough is divisible into four subsections-the Delta tidal plain, the Victor alluvial plain, tlie river flood plains and channels, and the Arroyo Seco dissected pediment. These four subsections comprise the land forms produced by the Mokelumne River and other streams since the Sierra Nevada attained its present height in the Pleistocene epoch. The Victor alluvial plain rises eastward from the Delta plain and abuts on the dissected Arroyo Seco pediment; in the Mokelumne area it is 12 to 16 miles wide and slopes between 5 and 8 feet in a mile. It includes relatively extensive tracts that are intensively cultivated and irrigated with water pumped from wells. The Victor plain has been compounded of overlapping alluvial fans along the western base of the Sierra Nevada. It is prolonged eastward into the pediment by tongues of alluvium along several of the present streams; thus it seems likely that the present stream pattern in the eastern part of the area has been fixed since dissection of the pediment began. Three of the four major streams-the Mokelumne and Cosumnes Rivers and Dry Creek-traverse the Victor plain in trenches which are 15 to 40 feet deep at the heads of their respective alluvial fans but which die out toward the west. The floors of these trenches, the historic flood plains, are from 100 yards to a mile wide. The exceptional major stream, which has not entrenched itself, is the Calaveras River. The Arroyo Seco pediment, which lies east of the Victor plain, was initially at least 8 to 15 miles wide and lay along the western foot of the Sierra Nevada entirely .across the Mokelumne area. Its numerous remnants decline 15 to 35 feet in a mile toward the west. The Sierra Nevada section adjoins and lies east of the California Trough. Its major ridge crests define a volcanic plain whose westward slope is' inferred to have been initially about 90 feet in a mile but is now about 180 feet in a mile, owing to tilting of the Sierra Nevada block in Pleistocene time. In and near the Mokelumne area the Sierra Nevada and California Trough together are roughly coextensive with a single structural unit. The Sierra Nevada constitutes a block that has risen with respect to adjoini;ng valley areas 'by simple rotation or tilting toward the west; it has not been warped or faulted -extensively. It is inferred that this block extends westward beneath the thick alluvial deposits of the trough without material warping or faulting. The oldest rocks of the Mokelumne region are the Carboniferous and Jurassic -rocks that compose the crystalline core of the Sierra Nevada. These are overlain unconformably by sediments of Tertiary age--in upward succession the lone, Valley Springs, Mehrten, and J.Jaguna formations. Of these formations all except the lone are newly discriminated, and type sections are described in the full text. These Tertiary sediments form a great wedge, thinnest along the mountain front to the east, where they have been truncated by erosion. They dip about 2° W. The lone formation (Eocene) consists chiefly of sandstone, clay, and shale; its maximum thickness is 450 feet. The Valley Springs formation (middle? Miocene) overlies the lone formation unconformably. It is composed largely of greenish-gray clay, shale, and sandstone derived from rhyolitic ejectamenta. These rhyolitic deposits are confined to narrow channels in the higher part of the Sierra Nevada, but they spread fanlike over the lower western edge of the mountain block, where they attain a maximum thickness of 525 feet. The Mehrten formation (upper? Miocene and lower Pliocene?) comprises the andesitic rocks that constructed the Sierran volcanic plain. In the Mokelumne area it consists chiefly of sandstone and siltstone but includes, as a minor though conspicuous part of the formation, layers and tongues of resistant breccia or agglomerate, which are presumed to have originated as mud flows. Nonfragmental andesite is not known to occur in the Mokelumne area, although several possible vents occur farther east. In the eastern part of the area the Mehrten formation truncates in turn the Valley Springs and lone formations and the pre-Cretaceous rocks; in the western part the Mehrten formation (andesitic) interfingers with the underlying Valley Springs formation (rhyolitic). Its maximum measured thickness is 400 feet. Few of the irrigation wells are so deep that they can be said with assurance to reach the Mehrten formation. The Laguna formation (Pliocene? and possibly lower Pleistocene) comprises poorly sorted, nonandesitic fluviatile sedimentary that overlie the Mehrten formation. It is inferred to be essentially parallel to and tilted equally with the Mehrten formation and to be about 400 feet thick. The Arroyo Seco gravel (presumably middle Pleistocene) veneers the Arroyo Seco pediment. At its easternmost outcrops the formation is composed of pebbles, cobbles, and boulders in a matrix of brick-red sand and silt; farther west, down the slope of the pediment, it becomes pr9gressively finer. It is inferred that the Arroyo Seco gravel is a coarse fraction of the rock waste that was transported from the Sierra Nevada after the Sierran.block was tilted in Pleistocene time. It is inferred further that the correlative of the Arroyo Seco gravel in the California Trough is a wedge-shaped mass of sediments whose base is the tilted Laguna formation and whose top can be interpolated by projecting a hypothetical surface through the remnants of the pediment. The Victor formation comprises the fluviatile sand, silt, and gravel that built the Victor alluvial plain over the hypothetical equivalent of the Arroyo' Seco gravel along the axis of the California Trough and against the western front of the dissected pediment to the east. The formation is thought to be about 100 feet thick along the western margin of the Mokelumne area, according to an estimate based upon projecting the slope of the Arroyo Seco pediment westward beneath the Victor plain. The Mokelumne area lies on the fertile central plain along the Mokelumne River about the city of Lodi, in northern San Joaquin County, and has been intensively developed for the cultivation of grapes, deciduous fruits, and other crops. Of necessity its great productiveness is maintained by irrigation. Extensive irrigation from wells began about 1907 and has increased steadily until in 1932 about 50,000 acres (80 percent of the area) was watered in that manner. The specific question at issue is the extent to which the supply of ground water and hence the productiveness of the area are dependent upon the water flowing in the Mokelumne River and the extent to which that productiveness may be influenced by regulation of the stream--:in particular, by the substantial regulation of the river that is accomplished by the Pardee Dam of the East Bay Municipal Utility District, which began to function in March 1929. The depth of 1,447 irrigation wells in five townships in the central part of the area (T. 3 N., Rs. 6 and 7 E., and T. 4 N., Rs. 6 to 8 E.) ranges from 20 to 910 feet. About half the wells bottom within a 100-foot zone whose base is 75 feet below the projected Arroyo Seco pediment; essentially that zone constitutes the Victor formation. Only 6 percent of the wells bottom within the next lower 25- foot zone, but the percentage increases sharply for depths still greater; it is inferred that impervious strata are relatively persistent between 75 and 100 feet below the projected pediment and that these are the uppermost part of the Arroyo Seco gravel. Of 580 observation wells known to bottom in the Victor formation, essentially all appear to indicate a regional water-table stage; thus the water is essentially unconfined. On the other hand, nearly all wells so deep that they reach the Arroyo Seco gravel or some underlying formation tap confined water. Near the Mokelumne River the water levels in these deep wells stand below the water table, which is semiperched. In most deep wells remote from the river the water level stands above the water table except during the pumping season. Fluctuations of ground-water levels are ascribed to moving or changing load on the land surface, earthquakes, variation of barometic pressure, ground-water draft by vegetation, infiltration of rain and certain indirect effects of rainfall, infiltration of water applied to the land for irrigation, variation in the discharge of streams, and pumping from wells. In the eastern part of the central district, between Clements and the vicinity of Lockeford, it is inferred that (1) the river and the water in the alluvium of the flood plain are not insulated from the water in the sediments that form the adjacent Victor plain; (2) locally if not generally, however, there are discontinuities in pervious strata along the outer margin of the flood plain, where the water table passes from the alluvium into the enclosing sediments, so that percolation of ground water is impeded materially at that margin; (3) rising river stages set up ground-water waves that store relatively large volumes of water in the alluvium close to the river, whereas falling stages cause much of that stored water to percolate back into the river, weeks and even months lapsing before the ground-water stage becomes steady within the flood plain; and (4) seepage loss from the river into the alluvium tends to be intermittent and to alternate with seepage gain, the rate of loss or gain lagging weeks or months behind the fluctuations of river stage and lagging more for moderate changes at low stage. However, in the succeeding reach downstream as far as Woodbridge, it is inferred that percolation of ground water is not impeded generally along the outer margin of the flood plain and that the river tends to lose almost continuously by seepage rather than intermittently, although the rate of loss fluctuates somewhat in response to changing river stage. The yearly pumpage for irrigation has been as much as 114,600 acre-feet (1928- 29), and there have been as many as 2,500 wells equipped with irrigation pumping plants (1931). Commonly the wells are pumped only in daylight and are idle over week-ends and holidays, also during and after protracted rainstorms in the early part of the season. In a small district near Victor pumping in recent years has begun in January or February, has reached its height in March, and largely has passed by April. In outlying districts general pumping has begun as late as May, reached its height in June or July, and waned by September. Since 1907 the water table appears to have declined steadily in most of the Mokelumne area except along the river. The decline was least in the Woodbridge Irrigation District, where in four typical wells. the average decline from 1907 to 1937 was 3 feet, or 0.15 foot a year. Among 18 shallow wells in the district of most intensive pumping the average recession of the water table from 1907 to 1927 was 11 feet, or 0.55 foot a year; the greatest measured recession was 15 feet, or 0.75 foot a year. From 1927 to 1933 the water table declined 5 feet or more over most of the central pumping district except within 2 miles of the Mokelumne River, and the greatest measured decline was 9 feet. The area of material recession ,extends 4 to 7 miles eastward beyond the central pumping district, whence it is inferred that pumping has drawn gradually on remote ground-water storage. It is inferred that the Mokelumne River ordinarily has been a losing stream between the Mehrten dam site, near Clements, and the Woodbridge Dam, the area that received the percolate having been triangular with its upstream and having included about 5,200 acres of the flood plain and 36,500 acres in outlying districts to the north and to the south. Mean fluctuations of the water table within the area receiving percolate from ihe river are believed to indicate that relatively little water is drawn from outside the area. Accordingly, simple storage methods are competent for a ground-water inventory. It is inferred that the rate of seepage loss from the river depends jointly upon river discharge, stage in the Woodbridge Reservoir, and groundwater pumpage. The foregoing inferences lead to the following conclusions with respect to ground-water replenishment by seepage loss from the river in the intensively cultivated district about Lodi: (1) The annual replenishment has tended to increase for at least two decades, owing to the gradual increase in head between surface water and ground water as ground-water levels have been lowered progressively by pumping; (2) annual replenishment has tended to increase, especially in recent years, owing to gradually prolonged use of the Woodbridge Reservoir, for thereby a relatively large wetted area and great differential head have been maintained for an increasing term; (3) the rate of replenishment tends to be greater under regulation than under the so-called natural regimen, to the extent that regulation has maintained a moderately large wetted area and stage in the river through the later part ·of each pumping season, whi1e the ground-water levels have been lowest. Moreover, for any particular yearly run-off below the Mehrten dam site, the replenishment by seepage would tend to be greater under the regulated regimen to the extent that fluctuations in discharge were suppressed, for the greatest yearly mean stage and mean wetted area would be afforded by constant discharge. -Thus, diverting water out of the Mokelumne River Basin at the Pardee Dam does not necessari1y-entail a diminution in ground-water replenishment by seepage loss along the lower reach of the stream, at least in the replenishment beneath the Victor plain above the gaging station at Woodbridge. Rather. the Pardee Dam affords a means for so regulating the discharge as to effect a maximum ground-water replenishment with-a given run-off in the natural channel. Bodies of ground water perched above the regional water table are common in the Laguna formation, especially in its lower part. Conspicuous bodies occur about 3 miles south of Clay, in a district between 1 mile and 5 miles south of Clements, and along Dry Creek in T. 5 N., Rs. 7 and 8 E. From the relation between the water table and the piezometric surface for water confined in deep aquifers, the area receiving percolate from the Mokelumne River may be divided roughly into (1) a central area, extending not :p1ore than half a mi1e beyond the flood plain, in which the piezometric surface is inferred to have stood below the water table throughout the term of the investigation and hence in which the difference in head has favored the percolation of water from shallow beds into deep beds in all seasons, and (2) an outlying area in which the difference in head likewise favors downward percolation into deep beds during the pumping season but favors upward percolation during the nonpumping season. This outlying area includes about 75 percent of the segment of the Victor plain that receives percolate from the river. From 1927 to 1933 the subartesian head that existed during the nonpumping season in the area remote from the river tended to increase; it is therefore inferred that the relative opportunity for seasonal recharge of the shallow water-bearing beds by underfeeding has likewise tended to increase. On the other hand, the negative differential head in wells near the river also has tended to increase; thus in this central area the opportunity for discharge of water from shallow beds by downward percolation has probably tended to increase. It is believed that ground-water storage within the area near the river is not decreased materially by" discharge westward through deep pervious beds, also that the yearly addition to ground-water storage in the outlying area by deep percolation from a remote easterly source is scant and for all practical purposes is offset by downward percolation along the river.

California

Aplicación de un modelo basado en procesos de patrones de sismicidad pre – eruptiva al volcán Ubinas, episodio eruptivo 2019

Using a volcanic monitoring data set from Ubinas volcano, we applied a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to the 2019 eruptive episode with the goal of identifying possible seismic precursors in order to help forecast future eruptions. This conceptual model, based on geologic processes, is divided into four seismicity stages: Stage 1. Characterized by the occurrence of deep seismicity associated with deep intrusion(s); Stage 2. Occurrence of distal volcano – tectonic seismicity in response to magma intrusion(s) into the upper crustal reservoir; Stage 3. Dominated by seismicity associated with vent – clearing; and Stage 4. Corresponding to the occurrence of repetitive seismicity related with final magma ascent. In the 2019 eruptive episode, we identified the last three stages: seismicity associated with the intrusion of new magma (Stage 2), seismicity associated with an opened and vent – clearing inside of the volcanic system (Stage 3) and repetitive seismicity that suggested the magma ascent towards shallower depths (Stage 4), however, no surficial lava was observed. Because Ubinas is an active system with frequent eruptions, Stage 2 was very brief; however, we were still able to identify the transition from phreatomagmatic to magmatic activity. The model allows us to provide a process-based interpretation to the volcanic monitoring observations from Ubinas volcano. Additionally, this model will aid in future assessment of unrest and contribute to eruption forecasting.

Ubinas Volcano

Stable isotope studies of metasomatic Ca-Fe-Al-Si skarns and associated metamorphic and igneous rocks, Osgood Mountains, Nevada

Garnet-pyroxene skarns were formed 90 m.y. B.P. in the Osgood Mountains at or near contacts of grandiorite with calcareous rocks of the Cambrian Preble Formation. The metasomatic replacement followed contact metamorphic recrystallization of the Preble. The sources, temperature, and variation in H2O/CO2 ratios of the metasomatic fluid are interpreted from 269 analyses of oxygen, carbon, hydrogen, and sulfur isotopes in whole rocks, minerals and inclusion fluids. Skarns formed in three mineralogical stages. Oxygen isotope data indicate that temperatures during the crystallization of garnet, pyroxene and wollastonite (Stage I) were least 550 ?? C, and that the metasomatic fluid had an {Mathematical expression} ??? 0.035 in the massive skarns, and ??? 0.12 in vein skarns up to 3 cm thick. Pore fluids in isotopic equilibrium with garnet in calc-silicate metamorphic rocks, on the other hand, had {Mathematical expression} ??? 0.15. The metasomatic fluids of Stage I were derived primarily from the crystallizing magma. The isotopic composition of magmatic water was ??18O =+9.0, ??D= -30 to -45. Oxygen isotope temperatures of greater than 620 ?? C were determined for the granodiorite. Isotopic and chemical equilibria between mineral surfaces and the metasomatic fluid were approached simultaneously in parts of the skarn several meters or more apart, while isotopic and chemical disequilibria (i.e. zoning) have been preserved between 20 to 40 ??m-thick zones in grandite garnet. More Fe-, or andradite-rich garnet crystallized in more H2O-rich C-O-H fluids ( {Mathematical expression} ??? 0.01) than present with grossularite-rich garnet ( {Mathematical expression}??? 0.035). Stage II was marked by the replacement of garnet and pyroxene by quartz, amphibole, plagioclase, epidote, magnetite, and calcite. Many of the replacement reactions took place over a relatively narrow range in temperature (480-550 ?? C), as indicated by 18O fractionations between quartz and amphibole. Meteoric water comprised 20 to 50% of the metasomatic fluid during Stage II. Calcite was formed along with pyrite, minor pyrrhotite, and chalcopyrite during Stage III, although the crystallization of pyrite and calcite had begun earlier, during Stages I and II, respectively. Carbon and sulfur isotope compositions of calcite and pyrite indicate a magmatic source for most of the C and S in the metasomatic fluids of Stage III. By the end of Stage III, meteoric water constituted as much as 100% of the metasomatic fluid. Minerals from grandiorite and skarn do not show large depletions in 18O because the oxygen isotope composition of the metasomatic fluid was buffered by the calcareous wall rocks and the grandiorite. Meteoric water in the vicinity of the Osgood Mountains during the Late Crectaceous (??18Ocale. ??? -14.0, ??D = - 107) was slightly enriched in 18O and D relative to present-day meteoric water (??18O = 15.9, ??D = - 117) ?? 1977 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology

Wildfire may increase habitat quality for spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River subbasin, WA, USA

Pacific Northwest salmonids are adapted to natural disturbance regimes that create dynamic habitat patterns over space and through time. However, human land use, particularly long-term fire suppression, has altered the intensity and frequency of wildfire in forested upland and riparian areas. To examine the potential impacts of wildfire on aquatic systems, we developed stream-reach-scale models of freshwater habitat for three life stages (adult, egg/fry, and juvenile) of spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River subbasin, Washington. We used variables representing pre- and post-fire habitat conditions and employed novel techniques to capture changes in in-stream fine sediment, wood, and water temperature. Watershed-scale comparisons of high-quality habitat for each life stage of spring Chinook salmon habitat suggested that there are smaller quantities of high-quality juvenile overwinter habitat as compared to habitat for other life stages. We found that wildfire has the potential to increase quality of adult and overwintering juvenile habitat through increased delivery of wood, while decreasing the quality of egg and fry habitat due to the introduction of fine sediments. Model results showed the largest effect of fire on habitat quality associated with the juvenile life stage, resulting in increases in high-quality habitat in all watersheds. Due to the limited availability of pre-fire high-quality juvenile habitat, and increased habitat quality for this life stage post-fire, occurrence of characteristic wildfires would likely create a positive effect on spring Chinook salmon habitat in the Wenatchee River subbasin. We also compared pre- and post-fire model results of freshwater habitat for each life stage, and for the geometric mean of habitat quality across all life stages, using current compared to the historic distribution of spring Chinook salmon. We found that spring Chinook salmon are currently distributed in stream channels in which in-stream habitat for most life stages has a consistently positive response to fire. This compares to the historic distribution of spring Chinook, in which in-stream habitat exhibited a variable response to fire, including decreases in habitat quality overall or for specific life stages. This suggests that as the distribution of spring Chinook has decreased, they now occupy those areas with the most positive potential response to fire. Our work shows the potentially positive link between wildfire and aquatic habitat that supports forest managers in setting broader goals for fire management, perhaps leading to less fire suppression in some situations.

Washington

Biochemical composition of three algal species proposed as food for captive freshwater mussels

To identify potential diets for rearing captive freshwater mussels, the protein, carbohydrate (CHO), and lipid contents of two green algae, Neochloris oleoabundans, Bracteacoccus grandis, and one diatom, Phaeodactylum tricornutum, were compared at different growth stages. The fatty acid and sterol composition were also identified. Protein was greatest (55-70%) for all species at late log growth stage (LL), and declined in late stationary (LS) growth. CHO was greatest at LS stage for all species (33.9-56.4% dry wt). No significant change in lipid levels occurred with growth stage, but tended to increase in N. oleoabundans. Mean lipid content differed significantly in the order: N. oleoabundans > P. tricornutum > B. grandis. Total fatty acids (TFA) were higher at LS stage compared to other stages in the two green algae, and stationary stage in the diatom. Mean unsaturated fatty acids (UFA) as %TFA was significantly higher in N. oleoabundans than the other species. The green algae contained high percentages of C-18 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), while the diatom was abundant in C-16 saturated and mono-unsaturated fatty acids and C-20 PUFA fatty acids. Growth stage had no effect on sterol concentration of any species. B. grandis showed significantly higher sterol levels than the other species except P. tricornutum at S stage. B. grandis was characterized by predominantly ??5, C-29 sterols, while N. oleoabundans synthesized ??5,7, ??5,7,22, and ??7, C-28 sterols. P. tricornutum produced primarily a ??5,22, C-28 sterol, and a small amount of a ??7,22, C-28 sterol.

Journal of Applied Phycology

The communication of volcano information in New Zealand - A narrative review

Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

Discharge of sediment in channelized alluvial streams

Approximately 400 million cubic feet of channel sediments have been delivered to the Mississippi River from the Obion-Forked Deer River system in the last 20 years. The discharge of sediment from these channelized networks in West Tennessee varies systematically with the stage of channel evolution. Maximum bed-material discharges occur during the initial phases of degradation (Stage III). In contrast, yields of suspended-sediment peak during the threshold stage (Stage IV: large-scale mass wasting) as sediments are delivered from main-channel banks and tributary beds. Suspended-sediment yields then decrease as aggradation (Stage V) becomes the dominant trend in the main channels, but remains relatively high through restabilization (Stage VI) because of continued degradation and widening in the tributaries. Bed-material discharges decrease from the degradation stage (III) to Stage V, and increase again during restabilization (Stage VI) because secondary aggradation increases gradients and incipient meandering serves to rework bed sediments. Additional aspects of the subject are discussed.

Water Resources Bulletin

Structural and petrologic evolution of the Lihue basin and eastern Kauai, Hawaii

The topography of the eastern part of the Hawaiian island of Kauai is dominated by the Lihue basin, a large (∼110 km 2 ) semicircular depression bounded by steep cliffs and partly filled by late rejuvenated-stage (or posterosional stage) volcanic material. As with other large, semicircular basins on ocean-island volcanoes, the subsurface geology and origin (e.g., structural collapse vs. fluvial erosion) of the Lihue basin are poorly understood. New analyses of samples collected from eastern Kauai and drill holes within the basin document several important features of the late-stage geologic evolution of Kauai. First, thick (>300 m) sequences of rejuvenated-stage Koloa Volcanics in the Lihue basin show systematic, basin-wide geochemical trends of increasingly incompatible elements with time, indicating a gradual decrease in the extent of partial melting of mantle sources with time. Second, beneath the rejuvenated-stage volcanics in the basin, a thin layer of postshield alkalic stage lavas (e.g., hawaiites and mugearites) overlies older shield-stage tholeiitic lavas of the Napali Member, indicating that the Lihue basin formed by structural collapse, not fluvial erosion. Third, a large (∼2–5 km 3 ) matrix-supported breccia, interpreted as deposits of one or more debris flows, is within the rejuvenated-stage volcanics throughout the basin, and correlates with surficial exposures of the Palikea Breccia west of the basin. Isotopic compositions of the bulk breccia are similar to those of tholeiites from the east side of Kauai, and distinct from those of west Kauai tholeiites. Clasts within the breccia are dominantly hawaiite and alkali gabbro. The source region of the breccia in the steep cliffs and highlands of the central massif to the west of the basin must contain magmatic products of an extensive postshield alkalic stage, including hawaiite flows and one or more large intrusive bodies or ponded sequences of alkali gabbro.

Hawaii

Integration of channel and floodplain suites. I. Developmental sequence and lateral relations of alluvial paleosols.

The lower Eocene Willwood Formation of the Bighorn Basin, northwest Wyoming, consists of about 770 m of alluvial rocks that exhibit extensive mechanical and geochemical modifications resulting from Eocene pedogenesis. Willwood paleosols vary considerably in their relative degrees of maturity; maturity is defined as stage of development as a function of the amount of time required to form. Five arbitrary stages are proposed to distinguish these soils of different maturities in the Willwood Formation. Stage 1 soils, the least mature, are entisols; stage 2 and stage 3 soils are intermediate in maturity and are probably alfisols; and stage 4 and stage 5 soils, the most mature, are spodosols. These stages are not only time-progressive elements of an in situ maturation sequence for Willwood soil formation, but, in the lateral dimension, they are also usually distributed sequentially. Study of Willwood paleosols indicates that an inverse relationship exists between soil maturity and short-term sediment accumulation rate. The least mature Willwood paleosols formed in areas of relatively high net rates of sediment accumulation on 1) channel, levee, and crevasse-splay sediments of the proximal alluvial ridge, and 2) deposits filling large and small paleovalleys formed by major episodes of gullying (lowered baselevels). In contrast, the fine-grained sediments of the distal floodplain, where net sediment accumulation rates were relatively low, experienced development of much more mature soils. Soils of intermediate maturities occur in the order of their stage on intervening proximal floodplain and distal alluvial ridge sediments. Adjacent bodies of sedimentary rock that differ in their ancient soil properties because of distance from areas of relatively high sediment accumulation are denoted by the new term pedofacies . The remarkable sequence of paleosols in the Willwood Formation clearly illustrates several important principles of soil-sediment interrelationships in aggrading alluvial systems that have broad application to other deposits. This is especially true in view of the widespread distribution of paleosols in nearly all ancient fluvial rocks. Further study of Willwood paleosols will not only enable precise lateral correlation of coeval alluvial sediments, and thereby fluvial sedimentary events, from the distal to the proximal realms of the floodplain but will also contribute to increasingly informative evaluations of the nature, tempo, and mode of alluvial succession.

Journal of Sedimentary Petrology

SHRIMP U-Pb and 40Ar/39Ar age constraints for relating plutonism and mineralization in the Boulder batholith region, Montana

The composite Boulder batholith, Montana, hosts a variety of mineral deposit types, including important silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein districts in the northern part of the batholith and the giant Butte porphyry copper-molybdenum pre-Main Stage system and crosscutting copper-rich Main Stage vein system in the southern part of the batholith. Previous dating studies have identified ambiguous relationships among igneous and mineralizing events. Mineralizing hydrothermal fluids for these types of deposits and magma for quartz porphyry dikes at Butte have all been considered to be late-stage differentiates of the Boulder batholith. However, previous dating studies indicated that the Boulder batholith plutons cooled from about 78 to 72 Ma, whereas copper-rich Main Stage veins at Butte were dated at about 61 Ma. Recent efforts to date the porphyry copper-molybdenum pre-Main Stage deposits at Butte resulted in conflicting estimates of both 64 and 76 Ma for the mineralizing events. Silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein deposits elsewhere in the batholith have not been dated previously. To resolve this controversy, we used the U.S. Geological Survey, Stanford, SHRIMP RG ion microprobe to date single-age domains within zircons from plutonic rock samples and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology to date white mica, biotite, and K-feldspar from mineral deposits. U-Pb zircon ages are Rader Creek Granodiorite, 80.4 ± 1.2 Ma; Unionville Granodiorite, 78.2 ± 0.8 Ma; Pulpit Rock granite, 76.5 ± 0.8 Ma; Butte Granite, 74.5 ± 0.9 Ma; altered Steward-type quartz porphyry dike (I-15 roadcut), 66.5 ± 1.0 Ma; altered Steward-type quartz porphyry dike (Continental pit), 65.7 ± 0.9 Ma; and quartz monzodiorite of Boulder Baldy (Big Belt Mountains), 66.2 ± 0.9 Ma. Zircons from Rader Creek Granodiorite and quartz porphyry dike samples contain Archean inheritance. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages are muscovite, silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein (Basin district), 74.4 ± 0.3 Ma; muscovite, silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein (Boulder district), 74.4 ± 1.2 Ma; muscovite, early dark micaceous vein (Continental pit), 63.6 ± 0.2 Ma; biotite, early dark micaceous vein (Continental pit), 63.6 ± 0.2 Ma; potassium feldspar, early dark micaceous vein (Continental pit), 63 to 59 Ma; and biotite, biotite breccia dike (Continental pit), 63.6 ± 0.2 Ma. Outlying silver-rich polymetallic quartz veins of the Basin and Boulder mining districts probably are directly related to the 74.5 Ma Butte Granite, whereas Steward-type east-west quartz porphyry dikes and Butte pre-Main Stage deposits are parts of a 66 to 64 Ma magmatic-mineralization system unrelated to emplacement of the Boulder batholith. The age of the crosscutting Main Stage veins may be about 61 Ma as originally reported but can only be bracketed as younger than the 64 Ma pre-Main Stage mineralization and older than the about 50 Ma Eocene Lowland Creek intrusions. The 66 Ma age for the quartz monzodiorite of Boulder Baldy and consideration of previous dating studies in the region indicate that small ca. 66 Ma plutonic systems may be common in the Boulder batholith region and especially to the east. The approximately 64 Ma porphyry copper systems at Butte and gold mineralization at Miller Mountain are indicative of regionally important mineralizing systems of this age in the Boulder batholith region. Resolution of the age and probable magmatic source of the Butte pre-Main Stage porphyry copper-molybdenum system and of the silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein systems in the northern part of the Boulder batholith documents that these deposits formed from two discrete periods of hydrothermal mineralization related to two discrete magmatic events.

Montana

A methodology for quantifying trace elements in the exoskeletons of Florida stone crab ( Menippe mercenaria ) larvae using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP–OES)

The larvae of the Florida stone crab, Menippe mercenaria , migrate through a variety of habitats as they develop and, therefore, experience a broad range of environmental conditions through ontogeny. Environmental variability experienced by the larvae may result in distinct elemental signatures within the exoskeletons, which could provide a tool for tracking the environmental history of larval stone crab populations. A method was developed to examine trace-element ratios, specifically magnesium-to-calcium (Mg/Ca) and strontium-to-calcium (Sr/Ca) ratios, in the exoskeletons of M. mercenaria larvae. Two developmental stages of stone crab larvae were analyzed—stage III and stage V. Specimens were reared in a laboratory environment under stable conditions to quantify the average ratios of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca of larval stone crab exoskeletons and to determine if the ratios differed through ontogeny. The elemental compositions (Ca, Mg, and Sr) in samples of stage III larvae (n = 50 per sample) from 11 different broods (mean Sr/Ca = 5.916 ± 0.161 millimole per mole [mmol mol −1 ]; mean Mg/Ca = 218.275 ± 59.957 mmol mol −1 ) and stage V larvae (n = 10 per sample) from 12 different broods (mean Sr/Ca = 6.110 ± 0.300 mmol mol −1 ; mean Mg/Ca = 267.081 ± 67.211 mmol mol –1 ) were measured using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP–OES). The ratio of Sr/Ca significantly increased from stage III to stage V larvae, suggesting an ontogenic shift in Sr/Ca ratios between larval stages. The ratio of Mg/Ca did not change significantly between larval stages, but variability among broods was high. The method used to examine the trace-element ratios provided robust, highly reproducible estimates of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios in the larvae of M. mercenaria , demonstrating that ICP–OES can be used to determine the trace-element composition of chitinous organisms like the Florida stone crab.

Open-File Report

Wake Atoll vessel movement biosecurity program efficacy

Executive Summary The purpose of this Wake Atoll Vessel Movement Biosecurity Program Efficacy document is to provide the United States Air Force (USAF) with an unbiased review of the current (2015; hereafter referred to as the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) biosecurity plan for the military base Wake Island Airfield (WIA) on Wake Atoll (hereafter Wake). Periodic reviews are an integral step for evaluating plan efficacy and updating plans with new information for improving plan effectiveness. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acted as an external expert to provide the first unbiased assessment of the program and observe how it was being implemented. The USAF 2015 Wake Island Biosecurity Management Plan goes beyond sea vessel and container biosecurity; however, those aspects were not included in this evaluation. We used several methods for a quality assurance evaluation of the 2015 sea vessel and shipping container biosecurity program specified in the Biosecurity Plan. Our evaluation included real-time observations in Hawai`i and at Wake. We surveyed cargo staging areas and empty shipping containers before supply shipment and the containers, barge, and marina at Wake after shipment. We used various detection tools and techniques (for example, visual encounter surveys, glue boards, chew cards, camera traps, and so on). We carried out an insect mortality experiment trial using one of the required shipping container biosecurity tools (dichlorvos impregnated pest strips). We also included a table-top review of documentation (largely the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) with respect to our observations to provide an assessment of how well the Biosecurity Plan protocols were carried out and how well they serve their intended purpose. We observed biosecurity concerns in each focal area and stage of cargo handling (before and after barge movement) across all surveys of containers, flat racks, break bulk, warehouses, and dock areas. Using visual inspections, we recorded biosecurity concerns for every empty container we inspected before it was to be stuffed with cargo. Most containers had structural integrity issues (such as holes and damaged floorboards) and sanitation concerns, including live animals and plant matter or seeds. About one third of the containers had mold and a few had wet floorboards or standing water. We detected live animals on the break bulk, and flat racks were in poor condition. Next, we inspected cargo staging areas and noted extensive permeability of the building where cargo was staged for the 2018 resupply shipment and the building that had typically been used. We included the adjacent dock area used for staging break bulk, shipping containers and mooring the barge. We detected more than 5,000 individuals of 105 species. We also detected seeds in each location and scattered vegetation in the dock area, including growing in from the area outside separated by a chain link fence. During surveys at Wake, we observed that 100 percent of the shipping containers, including all containers sent with required biosecurity tools, had live animals. The barge had only one unsecured snap trap for intercepting rodents aboard, we saw areas with fairly deep layers of dirt (or soil; we did not examine it to determine its properties), and there was plant matter with seed heads on the barge gangway that could easily be transported onto the barge. There was also only one snap trap station that was improperly placed on the dock. We also observed piled wood and vegetation nearby that could provide refuge to potential stowaway animals escaping. Combined, surveys of the containers, staging areas, barges, and receiving area in Hawai`i and at Wake resulted in detection of more than 9,000 individuals of 131 animal species; nearly 4,000 individuals of 62 species were detected in surveys of containers once they had arrived at Wake. None of the species identified are known to be native to Wake. Our preliminary risk analysis of all species detected included eight species that we scored as high risk of potentially negative effects to biodiversity, infrastructure, or human health should they arrive at Wake and become established. Six of these species were only recorded using tools not clearly required by the Biosecurity Plan or being used to implement the plan. We observed that the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in the cargo staging area did not target the suite nor number of species present. Our analysis also indicated the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in shipping containers were inadequate to handle the volume of organisms that were in the containers. The insect mortality trial experiment showed the pest strips were highly effective for only one of the three species tested, leaving uncertainty about how effective they are across the suite of potential species stowing away in cargo and containers. Base Operating Support (BOS) did not carry out all Biosecurity Plan actions, but we also noted the document uses terminology such as “recommendation” as opposed to “requirement” which may lead contractors to consider those actions as optional. However, USAF provided evidence of BOS training and follow up; this included detailed identification of specific requirements for some of the biosecurity actions that we did not observe being carried out. The 2015 Biosecurity Plan contains critical and useful components that seem to be well carried out. However, we also saw discrepancies, weaknesses, or both across methods and protocols currently used for Wake Atoll biosecurity. We observed shortcomings at each stage of our survey as well as in the plan as written, and we suggest general modifications to the Biosecurity Plan for consideration to potentially strengthen biosecurity overall. Prevention is the most efficient and cost-effective biosecurity measure. Based on our findings, we see possible solutions to improve existing preventative biosecurity efforts and reduce potential incursion at Wake. These potential solutions include creating and implementing the following: Minimum cargo staging area sanitation and permeability standards, Minimum shipping container integrity and sanitation standards, Stand-alone inspection protocols, Inspection checklists, Monitoring protocols, Accountability reporting, Horizon scanning for prioritizing and targeting species of highest concern, Expansion of educational materials and outreach, Schedules for biosecurity plan reviews and updates Management of invasive species enhances capability to protect human health and the environment as well as to advance mission accomplishment. Biosecurity plans are an integral component for addressing invasive species. Periodic evaluation of the efficacy of these plans is useful for identifying elements that are working well and for illuminating those that can be improved. Evaluations encourage consideration of new tools and adaptation of processes to achieve better outcomes and accommodate potential future threats more efficiently and more cost effectively.

Open-File Report

Flood-inundation maps for Sweetwater Creek from above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to the Interstate 20 bridge, Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 10.5-mile reach of Sweetwater Creek, from about 1,800 feet above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to about 160 feet below the Interstate 20 bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Cobb County, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Georgia (02337000). Current stage at this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell (02337000), which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software for Sweetwater Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 10.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Sweetwater Creek near Austell streamgage (02337000), as well as high-water marks collected during annual peak-flow events in 1982 and 2009. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 21 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Sweetwater Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (12.0 feet) to approximately 1.2 feet above the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (32.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from contour data (8-foot horizontal resolution), in Cobb County, and USGS National Elevation Dataset (31-foot horizontal resolution), in Douglas County—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia

Flood-inundation maps for Suwanee Creek from the confluence of Ivy Creek to the Noblin Ridge Drive bridge, Gwinnett County, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.9-mile reach of Suwanee Creek, from the confluence of Ivy Creek to the Noblin Ridge Drive bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Gwinnett County, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Suwanee Creek at Suwanee, Georgia (02334885). Current stage at this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Suwanee Creek at Suwanee (02334885), available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS software for Suwanee Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 6.9-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Suwanee Creek at Suwanee streamgage (02334885). The hydraulic model was then used to determine 19 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Suwanee Creek streamgage at 0.5-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage. The profiles ranged from just above bankfull stage (7.0 feet) to approximately 1.7 feet above the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (16.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model - derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data having a 5.0-foot horizontal resolution - to delineate the area flooded for each 0.5-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time stage information from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stage from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia

Development of flood-inundation maps for the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.3-mile reach of the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota, were developed through a multi-agency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and in collaboration with the National Weather Service. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ and the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage at the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (05331000). The National Weather Service forecasted peak-stage information at the streamgage may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the Mississippi River by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the most recent stage-discharge relation at the Robert Street location (rating curve number 38.0) of the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (streamgage 05331000), as well as an approximate water-surface elevation-discharge relation at the Mississippi River at South Saint Paul (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers streamgage SSPM5). The model also was verified against observed high-water marks from the recent 2011 flood event and the water-surface profile from existing flood insurance studies. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 25 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals ranging from approximately bankfull stage to greater than the highest recorded stage at streamgage 05331000. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from high-resolution topography data, to delineate potential areas flooded and to determine the water depths within the inundated areas for each stage at streamgage 05331000. The availability of these maps along with information regarding current stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage and forecasted stages from the National Weather Service provides enhanced flood warning and visualization of the potential effects of a forecasted flood for the city of Saint Paul and its residents. The maps also can aid in emergency management planning and response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Minnesota