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Debating complexity in modeling

Complexity in modeling would seem to be an issue of universal importance throughout the geosciences, perhaps throughout all science, if the debate last year among groundwater modelers is any indication. During the discussion the following questions and observations made up the heart of the debate. As scientists trying to understand the natural world, how should our effort be apportioned? We know that the natural world is characterized by complex and interrelated processes. Yet do we need to explicitly incorporate these intricacies to perform the tasks we are charged with? In this era of expanding computer power and development of sophisticated preprocessors and postprocessors, are bigger machines making better models? Put another way, do we understand the natural world better now with all these advancements in our simulation ability? Today the public's patience for long-term projects producing indeterminate results is wearing thin. This increases pressure on the investigator to use the appropriate technology efficiently. On the other hand, bringing scientific results into the legal arena opens up a new dimension to the issue: to the layperson, a tool that includes more of the complexity known to exist in the real world is expected to provide the more scientifically valid answer.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Capturing spatiotemporal patterns in presence-absence data to inform monitoring and sampling designs for the threatened Dakota skipper (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) in the Great Plains of the United States

Declines among species of insect pollinators, especially butterflies, has garnered attention from scientists and managers. Often these declines have spurred governments to declare some species as threatened or endangered. We used existing presence–absence data from surveys for the threatened Dakota skipper Hesperia dacotae (Skinner) to build statistical maps of species presence that could be used to inform future monitoring designs. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to estimate the spatial distribution and temporal trend in Dakota skipper probability of presence. Our model included a spatial random effect and fixed effects for the proportion of two grassland habitat types: those on well-drained soils and those on poorly drained soils; as well as the topographic slope. The results from this model were then used to assess sampling strategies with two different monitoring objectives: locating new Dakota skipper colonies or monitoring the proportion of historically (pre-2000) extant colonies. Our modeling results suggested that the distribution of Dakota skippers followed the distribution of remnant grasslands and that probabilities of presence tended to be higher in topographically diverse grasslands with well-drained soils. Our analysis also showed that the probability of presence declined throughout the northern Great Plains range. Our simulations of the different sampling designs suggested that new detections were expected when sampling where Dakota skippers likely occurred historically, but this may lead to a tradeoff with monitoring existing sites. Prior information about the extant sites may help to ameliorate this tradeoff.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota

Realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment with application to offshore renewable energy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researches the biological diversity and distribution of species to support management, conservation, and resource use decisions. USGS scientists advance detection and monitoring technologies to assess changes in fish and wildlife populations, biodiversity, and the health of ecosystems. The United States is planning to install 30 gigawatts of offshore marine and wind energy by 2030. However, the effects on fish and wildlife and their habitats are not well understood. The USGS is a leader in the field of eDNA technologies and has helped advance robotic eDNA samplers, has extensive experience working in the offshore environment, and has developed novel and actionable statistical methods and standards for eDNA monitoring applications. This fact sheet presents key eDNA research and development advances needed for realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment and applying eDNA monitoring to offshore renewable energy development. New and cost-effective tools for measuring changes in biodiversity in response to offshore renewable energy development can help to inform natural resource management and project planning and permitting decisions.

Fact Sheet

Third U.S. Geological Survey Wildland Fire-Science Workshop : Denver, Colorado, November 12-15, 2002

Executive Summary -- The historically significant wildland fire events that occurred in the United States during 2000 and 2002, together with the associated recognition of the need for a different national policy of forest management, has led to an increased awareness of the need for cooperative effort among all Federal agencies in planning for and managing the risks and consequences of wildland fire. The expertise and capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are significant resources in this regard, and the agency is becoming increasingly involved in fire-science activities in support of the various land-management agencies that are dealing directly with this issue. The First USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in 1997 and helped to establish the direction of USGS in sharing its expertise with the fire-management agencies. The Second USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Los Alamos, New Mexico, in 2000 and brought together all the agencies involved in the management of wildland fires in order to determine their needs, to demonstrate USGS capabilities to meet those needs, and to establish methods for the USGS to distribute data and tools useful in fire management. It enhanced the relationships developed during the 1997 workshop and helped to define USGS' role in the fire-management community. The Third USGS Wildland Fire-Science Workshop, held in Denver, Colorado, November 12?15, 2002, was an opportunity for exchange of information on recent progress in the area of fire science and to determine the gaps in fire-science research that could be addressed by the USGS. In addition to more than 90 USGS scientists engaged in fire-related research and managers of organizational units involved in some aspect of wildland fire activities, the workshop was attended by about 30 representatives of 11 other Federal agencies. There also were a number of attendees affiliated with several universities, private companies, and State and local agencies. The 4-day meeting consisted of a pre-workshop field trip to the Hayman Fire area, several keynote presentations, five panel discussions, presentation and 'breakout' discussion of four 'white paper' topics, and a poster session with more than 30 presentations.

Scientific Investigations Report

Marine geophysical data collected in a shallow back-barrier estuary, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey

In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, began a multidisciplinary research project to better understand the water quality in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. This back-barrier estuary is experiencing degraded water quality, algal blooms, loss of seagrass, and increases in oxygen stress, macroalgae, stinging nettles, and brown tide. The spatial scale of the estuary and the scope of challenges within it necessitate a multidisciplinary approach that includes establishing the regional geology and the estuary’s physical characteristics and modeling how the estuary’s morphology interacts to affect its water quality. This report presents the data collected during this project for use in understanding the morphology and the distribution of sea-floor and sub-sea-floor sediments within Barnegat Bay, describes the methods used to collect and process those data, and includes links to the final processed datasets. These data can be used by scientists to understand the links between geomorphology, geologic framework, sediment transport, and estuarine water quality and circulation.

New Jersey

Increasing accuracy of lake nutrient predictions in thousands of lakes by leveraging water clarity data

Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land-use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor variables in regression models to generate nutrient predictions, but often with significant uncertainty. An alternative approach to improve predictions is to leverage the observed relationship between water clarity and nutrients, which is possible because water clarity is more commonly measured than lake nutrients. We used a joint-nutrient model that conditioned predictions of total phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a on observed water clarity. Our results demonstrated substantial reductions (8–27%; median = 23%) in prediction error when conditioning on water clarity. These models will provide new opportunities for predicting nutrient concentrations of unsampled lakes across broad spatial scales with reduced uncertainty.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters

Submarine ground-water discharge and its role in coastal processes and ecosystems

Submarine ground-water discharge (SGD) has recently been recognized as a phenomenon that can strongly influence coastal water and geochemical budgets and drive ecosystem change. For example, the discharge of nutrient-enriched ground water into coastal waters may contribute significantly to eutrophication and blooms of harmful algae. Similarly, the quantity of SGD can also directly affect the availability of fresh water to coastal communities, impact fragile coastal ecosystems such as estuaries and coral reefs, and influence geomorphology of shoreline features. Moore raised awareness of the global importance of SGD and much effort has been devoted to developing new tracer techniques and methods for the identification and quantification of SGD. Because the discharge of coastal ground water commonly occurs as diffuse seepage rather than focused discharge through identifiable springs, assessing SGD has remained difficult for both oceanographers and hydrologists. Through national and international research programs, Burnett, Moore, Charette, and others have developed a rigorous, systematic approach for quantifying SGD using a wide assortment of tracers and methods. Intercalibration experiments, such as those conducted in coastal waters off Australia, Brazil, and Long Island, NY, demonstrate that careful measurements can accurately quantify SGD, confirm some of the driving mechanisms (e.g. climatic and tidal forcing), and constrain the spatial and temporal scales at which these mechanisms operate. Now that approaches for rigorously quantifying SGD are becoming better established, scientists can now begin to investigate the wide variety of coastal processes affected by SGD.

Open-File Report

Book review: Sandhill and whooping cranes: Ancient voices over America's wetlands

Paul Johnsgard has long been captivated by wild cranes and their unique vocalizations, courtship dances, and wide-ranging migrations. As a scientist and an admirer, Johnsgard has watched their migrations and behaviors for decades as hundreds of thousands of cranes staged each spring by the central Platte River, not far from his home in Lincoln, Nebraska. As an artist, he has skilfully captured their courtship dances and other behaviours in his exceptional line drawings. And, as an author, he has written extensively on their ecology in three earlier books: Cranes of the World (1983), Those of the Gray Wind: the Sandhill Crane (1986), and Crane Music: a Natural History of Cranes (1991). Much has happened relative to North American cranes in the 20 years since Johnsgard published Crane Music , including increased crane abundance in many areas and the completion of multiple studies on crane ecology and conservation. This new crane book serves as an update to Crane Music and provides the reader with many useful resources for observing and learning about cranes.

The Prairie Naturalist

Are you prepared for the next big earthquake in Alaska?

Scientists have long recognized that Alaska has more earthquakes than any other region of the United States and is, in fact, one of the most seismically active areas of the world. The second-largest earthquake ever recorded shook the heart of southern Alaska on March 27th, 1964. The largest strike-slip slip earthquake in North America in almost 150 years occurred on the Denali Fault in central Alaska on November 3rd, 2002. “Great” earthquakes (larger than magnitude 8) have rocked the state on an average of once every 13 years since 1900. It is only a matter of time before another major earthquake will impact a large number of Alaskans. Alaska has changed significantly since the damaging 1964 earthquake, and the population has more than doubled. Many new buildings are designed to withstand intense shaking, some older buildings have been reinforced, and development has been discouraged in some particularly hazardous areas. Despite these precautions, future earthquakes may still cause damage to buildings, displace items within buildings, and disrupt the basic utilities that we take for granted. We must take every reasonable action to prepare for damaging earthquakes in order to lower these risks.

Alaska

Subsurface waste disposal by means of wells - A selective annotated bibliography

Subsurface waste disposal by means of wells is the practice of using drilled wells to inject unwanted substances into underground rock formations. The use of wells for this purpose is not a new idea. As long ago as the end of the last century, it was common practice to drill wells for the express purpose of draining swamps and small lakes to reclaim the land for agricultural purposes. A few decades later in the 1920's and 1930's many oil companies began using injection wells to dispose of oil-field brines and to repressurize oil reservoirs. During World War II, the Atomic Energy Commission began using injection wells to dispose of certain types of radioactive wastes. More recently, injection wells have been drilled to dispose of a variety of byproducts of industrial processes. The number of such wells has increased rapidly since Congress passed the Clean Streams Act of 1966, which restricted the discharge of waste into surface waters. Many scientists and public officials question the propriety of using the term "disposal" when referring to the underground injection of wastes. Their reasons are that underground injection is not, as many advocates claim, "a complete and final answer" to the waste-disposal problem. Rather, it is merely a process wherein the injected wastes are committed to the subsurface with uncertainty as to their ultimate fate or limits of confinement. In effect, the wastes, undiminished and unchanged, are removed from the custody of man and placed in the custody of nature. Although the concept of waste-injection wells is relatively simple, the effects of waste injection can be very complex, particularly when dealing with the exotic and complex components of some industrial wastes. Besides the physical forces of injection, there are many varied interactions between the injected wastes and the materials within the injection zone. Because these changes occur out of sight in the subsurface, they are difficult to assess and not generally understood. In addition, the various aspects of the problem involve a wide spectrum of science and engineering. Hence, articles published on the subject are widely dispersed in the technical and scientific literature.

Water Supply Paper

Updated one-dimensional hydraulic model of the Kootenai River, Idaho: A supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5110

The Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, in cooperation with local, State, Federal, and Canadian agency co-managers and scientists, is assessing the feasibility of a Kootenai River habitat restoration project in Boundary County, Idaho. The restoration project is focused on recovery of the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) population, and simultaneously targets habitat-based recovery of other native river biota. River restoration is a complex undertaking that requires a thorough understanding of the river and floodplain landscape prior to restoration efforts. To assist in evaluating the feasibility of this endeavor, the U.S. Geological Survey developed an updated one-dimensional hydraulic model of the Kootenai River in Idaho between river miles (RMs) 105.6 and 171.9 to characterize the current hydraulic conditions. A previously calibrated model of the study area, based on channel geometry data collected during 2002 and 2003, was the basis for this updated model. New high-resolution bathymetric surveys conducted in the study reach between RMs 138 and 161.4 provided additional detail of channel morphology. A light detection and ranging (LIDAR) survey was flown in the Kootenai River valley in 2005 between RMs 105.6 and 159.5 to characterize the floodplain topography. Six temporary gaging stations installed in 2006-08 between RMs 154.1 and 161.2, combined with five permanent gaging stations in the study reach, provided discharge and water-surface elevations for model calibration and verification. Measured discharges ranging from about 4,800 to 63,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) were simulated for calibration events, and calibrated water-surface elevations ranged from about 1,745 to 1,820 feet (ft) throughout the extent of the model. Calibration was considered acceptable when the simulated and measured water-surface elevations at gaging stations differed by less than (+/-)0.15 ft. Model verification consisted of simulating 10 additional events with measured discharges ranging from about 4,900 to 52,000 ft 3 /s, and comparing simulated and measured water-surface elevations at gaging stations. Average water-surface-elevation error in the verification simulations was 0.05 ft, with the error ranging from -1.17 to 0.94 ft over the range of events and gaging stations. Additional verification included a graphical comparison of measured average velocities that range from 1.0 to 6.2 feet per second to simulated velocities at four sites within the study reach for measured discharges ranging from about 7,400 to 46,600 ft 3 /s. The availability of high-resolution bathymetric and LIDAR data, along with the additional gaging stations in the study reach, allowed for more detail to be added to the model and a more thorough calibration, sensitivity, and verification analysis to be conducted. Model resolution and performance is most improved between RMs 140 and 160, which includes the 18.3-mile reach of the Kootenai River white sturgeon critical habitat.

Idaho

USGS exploration geochemistry studies at the Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit, Alaska— Pdf of presentation

From 2007 through 2010, scientists in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have been conducting exploration-oriented geochemical and geophysical studies in the region surrounding the giant Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit in southwestern Alaska. The Cretaceous Pebble deposit is concealed under tundra, glacial till, and Tertiary cover rocks, and is undisturbed except for numerous exploration drill holes. These USGS studies are part of a nation-wide research project on evaluating and detecting concealed mineral resources. This report focuses on exploration geochemistry and comprises illustrations and associated notes that were presented as a case study in a workshop on this topic. The workshop, organized by L.G. Closs and R. Glanzman, is called 'Geochemistry in Mineral Exploration and Development,' presented by the Society of Economic Geologists at a technical conference entitled 'The Challenge of Finding New Mineral Resources: Global Metallogeny, Integrative Exploration and New Discoveries,' held at Keystone, Colorado, October 2-5, 2010.

Alaska

Landscape ecology of plague in the American southwest, September 19-20, 2000, Fort Collins, Colorado

During September 19-20, 2000, a workshop titled "Landscape Ecology of Plague in the American Southwest" was held in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Earth Surface Processes Team and sponsored by the USGS National Wildlife Health Center. Forty scientists and natural resource managers and administrators representing 8 federal agencies, 4 state agencies, 6 universities, and other local agencies and nongovernment organizations met to discuss historical and current status of plague in the United States, current activities in plague surveillance, research, and management in wildlife, and research and information needs relative to plague control and management. Eleven individual presentations on plague history, status, and trends; diagnostic technologies; epizootiological studies and observations; and control and management strategies and studies, followed by a panel discussion on the impact of plague on wildlife and ecosystems, led the way to extensive group discussions on important plague-related questions, issues and problems. Workshop attendees participated in identifying important research and information needs relevant to control and management of plague in wildlife, and in the process, established new cooperative and collaborative partnerships and enhanced existing relationships upon which future research and information needs can be met. The proceedings from this workshop are intended to be used by the natural resource managers and researchers from the various participating agencies, research facilities, as well as other stakeholders to aid in the development of future research and information programs and funding initiatives related to both zoonotic and sylvatic plague.

American Southwest

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin

Using structured decision-making to develop a communications strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Research Units Program

Communication regarding the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Research Units Program (CRU) can take many forms, yet clear and concise messaging for various audiences is critical to highlight program accomplishments and increase visibility. Before the work described in this report, CRU did not have a communication strategy; therefore, CRU leadership supported a structured decision-making (SDM) workshop to develop a comprehensive strategy for multiple audiences. The workshop was conducted in November 2024, in Nebraska City, Nebraska. The working group for this SDM process included CRU Program leadership, the CRU Communications Team lead, Unit scientists, a Unit administrative assistant, a representative of the Wildlife Management Institute (WMI), a member of the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA), Office of Communications and Publishing (OCAP) team, and the team lead for the CRU Program strategic planning process, as well as three facilitators who were also unit scientists as well as experts in SDM. Over the course of a week, the SDM team followed the PrOACT framework which identified the problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and tradeoffs to guide us toward a strategy for implementation of a set of actions for CRU communications. Results of the SDM workshop included the development of a problem statement, an objectives hierarchy, a suite of alternatives that were evaluated using a consequences table and a clear process for assessing tradeoffs among alternative communication actions and strategies. Through the evaluation of consequences of each action or campaign, the team developed both the assessment tool (for the future) and an immediate plan for communication product development and distribution. The consequences table for this problem was meant to be flexible to accommodate changes in CRU thematic priorities and can be easily updated with new objectives, measures, and alternatives. In addition, the weight placed on objectives may change as the Team moves forward; the ranking and scoring system used in the workshop can be easily updated. Overall, the working group identified three different actions or campaigns—Fact Sheets, Who Are We Campaign, and Alumni Campaign—that scored high in the prototype decision framework. However, the tradeoffs analysis indicated that each action(s) performed better on some objectives than others. The working group identified a need to therefore develop an implementation plan that is composed of individual actions that each target different objectives to potentially create a holistic and feasible communications strategy that performs well for all objectives. In addition, the SDM prototype developed a scalable, objective-based framework for effectively communication of the value and accomplishments of the CRU program.

Preprints.org

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Gateway National Recreation Area (GATE) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Gateway National Recreation Area in New York and New Jersey. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Gateway National Recreation Area consists of stable and washover dominated segments of Holocene barrier spit on Breezy Point and Sandy Hook, and Pleistocene glacial outwash and historic artificial fill on Staten Island. The areas within Gateway that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

New Jersey, New York

2009 Data Summary USA-NPN Technical Series

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) engages volunteer observers to collect phenology observations of plants and animals using consistent standards and to contribute to the USA-NPN National Phenology Database. In March 2009, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office implemented an online monitoring program for 213 plant species. In this pilot year of the program, 547 observers reported phenology observations on one or more plants via an online interface. There was substantial national interest in participating in this program, focused only on plants and with minimal advertising or marketing, which resulted in fifteen hundred new registrants, a thousand new sites, and tens of thousands of observations on 133 plant species across the nation in less than a year. Participants tended to stay involved, reporting most phenophases for an average of nine unique dates over almost two months during the year. This suggests sustained interest in participation and that the online interface and status monitoring engage the public, keeping them involved in the project and in participatory monitoring and outdoor activities. The data collected by participants show interesting patterns of plant phenology on regional to national scales that are commensurate with our understanding of climatological gradients associated with latitude, longitude, elevation, and degree of continentality. As such, these data should be useful to a variety of stakeholders interested in the spatial and temporal patterns of plant activity on a national scale. Through time, these data should empower scientists, resource managers, and the public in making decisions concerning adaptation to variable and changing climates and environments.

USA-NPN Technical Series

Mechanism of Formation of Pillow Lava

Much of the ocean floor is covered by lava of a distinctive character. The lava appears to be made up of closely packed ellipsoidal masses about the size and shape of pillows - hence the term pillow lava. Only within the last few years has the abundance of pillow lava on the ocean floor been fully recognized. Ocean-bottom photographs and dredge samples have shown that the great bulk of new ocean floor created at diverging plate boundaries (such as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge) is composed of pillowed basaltic lava flows. Closeup observations from submarines at depths of 2.7 km in the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge have verified that virtually all the lavas erupted at this plate boundary are pillowed. The submarine portions of the great oceanic volcanoes, such as the ridge beneath the Hawaiian Islands, are also known to be built largely of pillow lava, and it is widespread in outcrops of uplifted ancient lava. Pillow lava is probably the most abundant form of volcanic rock on earth, though most of it is hidden beneath the world's oceans and mantled by younger sediments. Most investigators agree that the pillows form when fluid lava chills in contact with water, either when it erupts directly into water (or beneath ice) or when it flows across a shoreline and into a body of water. However, prior to our study, the process of pillow formation had never been directly observed. The recent eruptions of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii provided an unparalleled opportunity to study the movement and cooling of lava beneath the sea. In June 1969, lava from the new Mauna Ulu vent on the east rift zone of Kilauea spilled into the sea after flowing 12 km down the south flank of the volcano. This pattern was repeated, with lava flowing into the sea for a few weeks each year through 1973. In April 1971 scuba divers for the first time investigated lava flowing underwater and learned that in favorable circumstances the lava could be approached closely. Despite heated water, explosive concussions, vigorous convective currents, and poor visibility due to suspended sediment, valuable observations were made.

American Scientist