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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources

Using geochemistry to identify the source of groundwater to Montezuma Well, a natural spring in Central Arizona, USA: Part 2

Montezuma Well is a unique natural spring located in a sinkhole surrounded by travertine. Montezuma Well is managed by the National Park Service, and groundwater development in the area is a potential threat to the water source for Montezuma Well. This research was undertaken to better understand the sources of groundwater to Montezuma Well. Strontium isotopes ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) indicate that groundwater in the recharge area has flowed through surficial basalts with subsequent contact with the underlying Permian aged sandstones and the deeper, karstic, Mississippian Redwall Limestone. The distinctive geochemistry in Montezuma Well and nearby Soda Springs (higher concentrations of alkalinity, As, B, Cl, and Li) is coincident with added carbon dioxide and mantle-sourced He. The geochemistry and isotopic data from Montezuma Well and Soda Springs allow for the separation of groundwater samples into four categories: (1) upgradient, (2) deep groundwater with carbon dioxide, (3) shallow Verde Formation, and (4) mixing zone. δ 18 O and δD values, along with noble gas recharge elevation data, indicate that the higher elevation areas to the north and east of Montezuma Well are the groundwater recharge zones for Montezuma Well and most of the groundwater in this portion of the Verde Valley. Adjusted groundwater age dating using likely 14 C and δ 13 C sources indicate an age for Montezuma Well and Soda Springs groundwaters at 5,400–13,300 years, while shallow groundwater in the Verde Formation appears to be older (18,900). Based on water chemistry and isotopic evidence, groundwater flow to Montezuma Well is consistent with a hydrogeologic framework that indicates groundwater flow by (1) recharge in higher elevation basalts to the north and east of Montezuma Well, (2) movement through the upgradient Permian and Mississippian units, especially the Redwall Limestone, and (3) contact with a basalt dike/fracture system that provides a mechanism for groundwater to flow to the surface. While the exact nature of the groundwater flow connections is still uncertain, the available data indicate that flow to Montezuma Well may be more susceptible to future groundwater development in the Redwall Limestone than from any other geologic unit. Overall, the shallow groundwater in the surrounding Verde Formation appears to be largely disconnected from deeper groundwater flowing to Montezuma Well.

Arizona

Differentiating anthropogenic and natural sources of uranium by geochemical fingerprinting of groundwater at the Homestake Uranium Mill, Milan, New Mexico, USA

A multiparameter geochemical-isotopic fingerprinting approach was used to differentiate natural and anthropogenic signatures of uranium contamination near the Homestake uranium mill site (Site), near Milan, New Mexico, USA. The Site consists of two tailings piles from milling operations and groundwater contamination from these tailings have been noted. The Site lies within the lower San Mateo Creek Basin with multiple regional sources of U contamination from mining and mill operations and is underlain by a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer, which is underlain by basement rock of the Chinle Group and the lowermost San Andres-Glorieta aquifer. To help decipher signatures, several statistical approaches were used including PCA, NMDS, and cluster analysis. Trilinear piper diagrams indicate two end member water types at the Site, sulfate-Na-K and sulfate-Ca. Natural alluvial aquifer groundwater in this area, relatively unaffected by mining or milling, appears to be more dominated by bicarbonate than sulfate and the deeper San Andres-Glorieta aquifer that has a mixture of sulfate and bicarbonate. Uranium concentrations from the Site fall into three broad categories, less than the drinking water standard of 30 µg/L (n=3), from 30 to 100 µg/L (n=9) and greater than 100 µg/L (n=8). Component loadings in a principal component analysis are highest for uranium isotopes, 228Ra, gross alpha-beta, molybdenum, chloride, uranium, and sodium, which affect the similarities or differences among wells sampled. Results suggest that several alluvial wells upgradient from the Site have anthropogenic fingerprints from regional sources related to upgradient mining. Wells with higher uranium concentrations have uranium activity ratios close to 1, which is indicative of mining or milling signatures. These same wells have elevated radon activities. This information can be used to inform Site managers on the source of water related to uranium at the Site and provide an approach for geochemical fingerprinting.

New Mexico

The boundary model: A geographical analysis of design and conservation of nature reserves

It is widely recognised that nearly all parks and reserves are too small to protect their biological diversity. In response to this problem, we have been developing a multidisciplinary ‘boundary model’ that focuses upon the processes of exchange across the administrative edges of nature reserves. The model incorporates known dynamics from various disciplines and describes the interactions of these forces across the boundary. These disciplines include biogeography, ecology, and human effects, influences and attitudes in an understanding of reserve boundary vulnerability and effectiveness. The boundary model recognises the development of edges in association with the establishment of the administrative boundary. However, it discerns between ‘natural’ and ‘generated’ edges that are based upon the differing stimuli for their development and change. Segmentation of the boundary is recognised as a manifestation of environmental heterogeneity. The boundary model suggests that exposure of the reserve is a major determinate of potential vulnerability. Effectiveness of reserve protection is hypothesised to be more dependent upon what crosses the boundary than upon any internal processes alone.

Biological Conservation

Composition and stable-isotope geochemistry of natural gases from Kansas, Midcontinent, U.S.A.

More than 28??1012 ft.3 (79??1010 m3) of natural gas and 5.3??109 bbl (8.4??108 m3) of oil have been produced in Kansas, U.S.A., from Paleozoic carbonate and sandstone reservoirs on structural uplifts and shallow embayments along the northern margin of the Anadarko basin. A heavily-explored, geologically well-characterized state, Kansas is an excellent place to study hydrocarbon migration and to test geochemical models for the origin of natural gases. Immature to marginally-mature rocks of eastern Kansas (Cherokee and Forest City basins) produce mixed microbial and thermogenic gases. Gases in this region have wetness = 0.03-51%, methane ??13C = -65 to -43??? and methane ??D = -260 to -150???. Gases from central and western Kansas (Nemaha uplift to Hugoton embayment) are entirely thermogenic and have wetness =4-51%, methane ??13C = -48 to -39??? and methane ??D = -195 to -140???. Ethane and propane ??13C-values throughout Kansas vary from -38 to -28??? and from -35 to -24???, respectively. Mature thermogenic gas (generated from source rocks in southwestern Kansas and the Anadarko basin with 1.0% ??? Ro ??? 1.4%) is recognized throughout the state. Lateral migration into shallow reservoirs on the Central Kansas and northern Nemaha uplifts and in the Cherokee basin probably occurred along basal Pennsylvanian conglomerates and weathered Lower Paleozoic carbonates at the regional sub-Pennsylvanian unconformity. Early thermogenic gas (generated by local source rocks with Ro ??? 0.7%) is recognized in isolated fields in the Salina and Forest City basins, in Ordovician reservoirs beneath the sub-Pennsylvanian unconformity in the Cherokee basin, and in reservoirs generally above the unconformity in the Cherokee and Sedgwick basins, the eastern Central Kansas uplift and the Hugoton embayment. ?? 1988.

Chemical Geology

Character, origin and occurrence of natural gases in the Anadarko basin, southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle, U.S.A.

Natural gas production in the Anadarko basin comes from three geographically separated areas that can be differentiated by age of reservoir and by inferred nature of organic, thermal origin of the gases. In the central basin, non-associated gases are produced mainly from Upper Mississippian and Pennsylvanian sandstones. Gas samples are from reservoirs as much as 6588 m deep. Gases become isotopically heavier (??13C1-values range from -49.8 to -33.2???) and chemically drier (C2+-values range from 1-33%) with increasing level of thermal maturity. Gases were generated mainly from interbedded shales with type-III kerogen during the mature and post-mature stages of hydrocarbon generation. Deviations from the trend are due to vertical migration and mixing of gases generated at different levels of thermal maturity over the past 250 Myr. In the giant Panhandle-Hugoton field, non-associated gases are generally produced from Permian carbonates at depths of <900 m. Gases display little compositional variation (mean ??13C1-value is -43.2???, mean C2+-value is 14%). Because organic-rich, mature source rocks are not present in the area, gases probably were generated in the central basin from Pennsylvanian or older source rocks during the mature stage of hydrocarbon generation. This interpretation implies migration over distances as much as several hundred kilometers. In the Sooner Trend, associated gases are produced from Silurian, Devonian and Mississippian carbonates at depths as great as 2950 m and were generated from type-II kerogen during the mature stage of hydrocarbon generation. Associated oil usually correlates with extracts of the Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Woodford Shale. Gases are isotopically lighter (mean ??13C1-value is -43.9???) and chemically wetter (mean C2+ value is 14%) than those derived from type-III kerogen at an equivalent level of thermal maturity. ?? 1988.

Chemical Geology

Mass transfer and carbon isotope evolution in natural water systems

This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the evolution of the carbon isotopes C13 and C14 in natural waters and in precipitates which derive from such waters. The effects of an arbitrary number of sources (such as dissolution of carbonate minerals and oxidation of organic material) and sinks (such as mineral precipitation, CO2 degassing and production of methane), and of equilibrium fractionation between solid, gas and aqueous phases are considered. The results are expressed as equations relating changes in isotopic composition to changes in conventional carbonate chemistry. One implication of the equations is that the isotopic composition of an aqueous phase may approach a limiting value whenever there are simultaneous inputs and outputs of carbonate. In order to unambiguously interpret isotopic data from carbonate precipitates and identify reactants and products in reacting natural waters, it is essential that isotopic changes are determined chiefly by reactant and product stoichiometry, independent of reaction path. We demonstrate that this is so by means of quantitative examples. The evolution equations are applied to: 1. (1) carbon-14 dating of groundwaters; 2. (2) interpretation of the isotopic composition of carbonate precipitates, carbonate cements and diagenetically altered carbonates; and 3. (3) the identification of chemical reaction stoichiometry. These applications are illustrated by examples which show the variation of ??C13 in solutions and in precipitates formed under a variety of conditions involving incongruent dissolution, CO2 degassing, methane production and mineral precipitation. ?? 1978.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

The effect of sulfate on aluminum concentrations in natural waters: some stability relations in the system Al2O3-SO3-H2O at 298 K

While gibbsite and kaolinite solubilities usually regulate aluminum concentrations in natural waters, the presence of sulfate can dramatically alter these solubilities under acidic conditions, where other, less soluble minerals can control the aqueous geochemistry of aluminum. The likely candidates include alunogen, Al 2 (SO 4 ) 3 · 17H 2 O, alunite, KAl 3 (SO 4 ) 2 (OH) 6 , jurbanite, Al(SO 4 )(OH) · 5H 2 O, and basaluminite, Al 4 (SO 4 )(OH) 10 · 5H 2 O. An examination of literature values shows that the log K sp = &#x2212;85.4 "> Ksp= −85.4 for alunite and log K sp = &#x2212;117.7 "> Ksp= −117.7 for basaluminite. In this report the log K sp = &#x2212;7.0 "> Ksp= −7.0 is estimated for alunogen and log K sp = &#x2212;17.8 "> Ksp= −17.8 is estimated for jurbanite. The solubility and stability relations among these four minerals and gibbsite are plotted as a function of pH and sulfate activity at 298 K. Alunogen is stable only at pH values too low for any natural waters (<0) and probably only forms as efflorescences from capillary films. Jurbanite is stable from pH &lt; 0 "> pH < 0 up to the range of 3–5 depending on sulfate activity. Alunite is stable at higher pH values than jurbanite, up to 4–7 depending on sulfate activity. Above these pH limits gibbsite is the most stable phase. Basaluminite, although kinetically favored to precipitate, is metastable for all values of pH and sulfate activity. These equilibrium calculations predict that both sulfate and aluminum can be immobilized in acid waters by the precipitation of aluminum hydroxysulfate minerals. Considerable evidence supports the conclusion that the formation of insoluble aluminum hydroxy-sulfate minerals may be the cause of sulfate retention in soils and sediments, as suggested by Adams and Rawajfih (1977), instead of adsorption.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Complexation of trace metals by adsorbed natural organic matter

The adsorption behavior and solution speciation of Cu(II) and Cd(II) were studied in model systems containing colloidal alumina particles and dissolved natural organic matter. At equilibrium a significant fraction of the alumina surface was covered by adsorbed organic matter. Cu(II) was partitioned primarily between the surface-bound organic matter and dissolved Cu-organic complexes in the aqueous phase. Complexation of Cu2+ with the functional groups of adsorbed organic matter was stronger than complexation with uncovered alumina surface hydroxyls. It is shown that the complexation of Cu(II) by adsorbed organic matter can be described by an apparent stability constant approximately equal to the value found for solution phase equilibria. In contrast, Cd(II) adsorption was not significantly affected by the presence of organic matter at the surface, due to weak complex formation with the organic ligands. The results demonstrate that general models of trace element partitioning in natural waters must consider the presence of adsorbed organic matter.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Infrared spectroscopic examination of the interaction of urea with the naturally occurring zeolite clinoptilolite

Infrared spectroscopy has shown for the first time that the naturally occurring zeolite clinoptilolite can absorb urea, (NH 2 ) 2 CO, under ambient conditions from either aqueous or ethanolic solutions. The two strongest NH stretching bands at 3441 and 3344 cm −1 in pure, solid urea shift to higher frequency (about 3504 and 3401 cm −1 ) after absorption. Two of the four urea bands in the 1800-1300 cm −1 range (at 1683 and 1467 cm −1 ) undergo marked downward shifts to about 1670 and 1445 cm −1 . The other two bands show little change in frequency. The strong band at 1602 cm −1 , however, diminishes in intensity to little more than an ill-defined shoulder on the 1626-cm −1 peak. When clinoptilolite is heated to 450 °C and then treated with molten urea (ca. 140 °C) for several minutes, and finally washed twice with ethanol to remove excess unreacted urea, further changes become apparent in the spectrum of the urea-treated clinoptilolite. The two NH stretching bands broaden without significant change in frequency. Two new bands appear in the midfrequency range at 1777 (weak) and 1719 (medium strong) cm −1 . Of the four original midfrequency peaks, the one at 1602 cm −1 is now absent. Two others (1627 and 1440 cm −1 ) exhibit little change, while the fourth has broadened and shifted down to 1663 cm −1 , where it appears as a shoulder on the band at 1627 cm −1 . Both treatments clearly induce interaction between urea and the zeolite which seems to result in significant modifications in the nature of the hydrogen bonding of the substrate.

Microchemical Journal

A review of the geochemistry of methane in natural gas hydrate

The largest accumulations on Earth of natural gas are in the form of gas hydrate, found mainly offshore in outer continental margin sediment and, to a lesser extent, in polar regions commonly associated with permafrost. Measurements of hydrocarbon gas compositions and of carbon-isotopic compositions of methane from natural gas hydrate samples, collected in subaquatic settings from around the world, suggest that methane guest molecules in the water clathrate structures are mainly derived by the microbial reduction of CO 2 from sedimentary organic matter. Typically, these hydrocarbon gases are composed of > 99% methane, with carbon-isotopic compositions (δ 13 C PDB ) ranging from − 57 to − 73‰. In only two regions, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caspian Sea, has mainly thermogenic methane been found in gas hydrate. There, hydrocarbon gases have methane contents ranging from 21 to 97%, with δ 13 C values ranging from − 29 to − 57‰. At a few locations, where the gas hydrate contains a mixture of microbial and thermal methane, microbial methane is always dominant. Continental gas hydrate, identified in Alaska and Russia, also has hydrocarbon gases composed of > 99% methane, with carbon-isotopic compositions ranging from − 41 to − 49‰. These gas hydrate deposits also contain a mixture of microbial and thermal methane, with thermal methane likely to be dominant.

Organic Geochemistry

The effect of using different 0.45 μm filter membranes on 'dissolved' element concentrations in natural waters

The effect of 4 different 0.45 μm pore size filter membrane systems on the ‘dissolved’ concentration of 28 elements in 5 natural water samples of varying matrix is reported. In 3 of the 5 waters, consistently higher concentrations of most elements (minor and trace) are obtained using Nucleopore 47 mm filter and the cellulose acetate/nitrate 47 mm filter than those measured using the 142 mm cellulose nitrate MFS filter or the Gelman capsule 47 mm filter. These distinct and coherent patterns in elemental behaviour disappear for the other 2 samples, an organic-rich peat water of high suspended load and a mineralised sample high in Si and Ca. Thus the nature and degree of filtration artifacts is matrix-dependent. These trends are evident in both data sets produced by 2 independent laboratories using different instrumentation, techniques and calibrating procedures. The average relative standard deviation in elemental concentration across the 4 filter types is in the range 9–21%. The presence of such filtration artifacts must be considered in projects where, for example, seasonal variability of water composition is under examination, data from various sources are being merged or hydrogeochemical surveys are being conducted.

Applied Geochemistry

Natural gas hydrates: Status of potential as an energy resource

Gas hydrate is a widespread naturally-occurring combination of water and natural gases. Gas hydrate is found in shallow sediments of deepwater regions of the continental margins and in areas of continuous permafrost. Where gas supply is sufficient and migration pathways connect gas sources to favorable reservoirs, gas hydrate can accumulate to resource densities that may be attractive for gas production. Global research on the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from gas hydrates continues, predominantly in Asia and in the United States, where current efforts focus on the controlled destabilization of high-saturation deposits housed in sand and/or silt-rich reservoirs. This chapter reviews the current state of gas hydrate resource exploration and appraisal, the most promising production approaches identified to date, and the likely technical challenges to commercial production.

Book chapter

Novel landscape elements within natural gas fields increase densities but not fitness of an important songbird nest predator

Identifying the elements within human-altered landscapes most associated with population and community changes is critical for conservation and management of sensitive species. We investigated which features of habitat change from natural gas development best explained the density of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), an important nest predator of declining sagebrush-obligate songbirds. During 2014–2016, we quantified the spatial extent of habitat change (well pads, roads, and reclaimed areas [i.e., reseeded soils]) surrounding 12 sites spanning two natural gas fields in Wyoming, USA. We further tested whether the altered plant communities within reclaimed areas provided benefits to deer mice, by assessing multiple fitness indices. Deer mouse density increased with surrounding reclaimed area. Powder tracking and dietary analyses confirmed that mice moved through and consumed plant species found exclusively within reclaimed areas. Concomitant fitness metrics of mice, however, were neutrally or negatively related to the amount of surrounding reclaimed area. Mice therefore did not derive any apparent fitness benefits associated with living near reclaimed areas, despite the presence of novel food resources, indicating that increased abundance may be a product of mice dispersing toward reseeded soils. Our study contributes mechanistic insights into the complexities of how human-induced changes to landscapes can influence community dynamics. Minimizing total habitat disturbed during construction, expediting reclamation practices, and using only native and regionally-local seed mixes would likely help minimize increases in synanthropic rodent predators within energy fields. More efficient restoration of disturbed habitat, moreover, may help ameliorate altered predator-prey relationships that affect the success of sensitive species.

Wyoming

Scanning electron microscopic evaluation of broad ion beam milling effects to sedimentary organic matter: Sputter-induced artifacts or naturally occurring porosity?

Research examining organic-matter hosted porosity has significantly increased during the last decade due to greater focus on understanding hydrocarbon migration and storage in source-rock reservoirs, and technological advances in scanning electron microscopy (SEM) capabilities. The examination of nanometer-scale organic-matter hosted porosity by SEM requires the preparation of exceptionally flat geologic samples beyond the abilities of traditional mechanical polishing, which can deform or otherwise obscure organic surfaces. To meet this demand, broad ion beam (BIB) milling was introduced as a sample preparation technique for SEM petrographic analysis of geologic samples. As with any sample preparation technique, there can be unintended consequences. In this study, we examined the development of nanometer-scale sputter-induced voids caused by BIB milling of thermoset plastic binder material [poly(methyl methacrylate), PMMA] used for the mounting of geologic samples, and artifact sputter-induced voids in the organic matter of Green River Formation and Kimmeridge Clay Formation source rocks. Development of artifact sputter-induced voids was evaluated in relation to variations in the slope of the sample examination surface (0.0–4.9% slope), effectively varying the angle of ion incidence. The results indicate that only minor variations in the angle of ion incidence can generate sputter-induced voids in both PMMA (10.0–386.2 nm diameter sputter-induced voids) and sample sedimentary organic matter (solid bitumen; 12.2–103.6 nm diameter sputter-induced voids). Overall, average artifact pore diameters increased with increasing ion incidence angle within PMMA. Although sputter-induced voids within solid bitumen in the Green River Formation sample were only found in limited extent, the size of these void artifacts falls within the same size range as naturally occurring meso-macroporosity. That is, the pore-like artifacts could easily be misconstrued as naturally developed organic porosity, which is a major concern for SEM-based porosity evaluation methods. This study describes the factors that contribute to the creation of artifact sputter-induced voids, their distinguishing characteristics, and best practices for avoiding the creation of ion-induced artifacts.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Lessons learned from development of natural capital accounts in the United States and European Union

The United States and European Union (EU) face common challenges in managing natural capital and balancing conservation and resource use with consumption of other forms of capital. This paper synthesizes findings from 11 individual application papers from a special issue of Ecosystem Services on natural capital accounting (NCA) and their application to the public and private sectors in the EU and U.S. NCA is inherently a data-integration centered exercise, aiming to draw new insights by realigning environmental and economic data into a consistent framework. Drawing primarily on papers from the special issue and other key NCA literature, we identify lessons learned and gaps remaining for NCA’s development and application to decision making. In doing so, we identify eight key similarities and three major differences in NCA development, status, and application between the U.S. and EU. NCA can be highly policy relevant: special issue papers address critical issues including agriculture, water, conservation/land-use planning, climate, and corporate decision making. In both the U.S. and EU, further application is needed to drive demand for the accounts’ production. Based on these experiences, the U.S. and EU can be important leaders in cross-sector, international collaboration toward next-generation environmental economic accounts that advance global NCA practice.

Ecosystem Services

Nekton density patterns and hurricane recovery in submerged aquatic vegetation, and along non-vegetated natural and created edge habitats

We compared nekton habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation, flooded non-vegetated natural and man-made edge habitats in mesohaline interior marsh areas in southwest Louisiana using a 1-m 2 throw trap and 3-mm bag seine. When present, SAV habitats supported close to 4 times greater densities and higher species richness of nekton as compared to either natural or man-made edge habitats, which supported similar densities to one another. Three species of concern (bayou killifish, diamond killifish, chain pipefish) were targeted in the analysis, and two of the three were collected almost entirely in SAV habitat. During the course of the study, Hurricanes Ike and Gustav passed directly over the study sites in September 2008. Subsequent analyses indicated significant reductions in resident nekton density 1-mo post hurricanes, and only limited recovery 13-mo post-hurricane. Possible alteration of environmental characteristics such as scouring of SAV habitat, deposition of sediment over SAV, edge erosion and marsh loss, and extended high salinities may explain these lasting impacts

Louisiana

Preliminary report on the commercial viability of gas production from natural gas hydrates

Economic studies on simulated gas hydrate reservoirs have been compiled to estimate the price of natural gas that may lead to economically viable production from the most promising gas hydrate accumulations. As a first estimate, $CDN 2005 12/Mscf is the lowest gas price that would allow economically viable production from gas hydrates in the absence of associated free gas, while an underlying gas deposit will reduce the viability price estimate to $CDN 2005 7.50/Mscf. Results from a recent analysis of the simulated production of natural gas from marine hydrate deposits are also considered in this report; on an IROR basis, it is $US 2008 3.50-4.00/Mscf more expensive to produce marine hydrates than conventional marine gas assuming the existence of sufficiently large marine hydrate accumulations. While these prices represent the best available estimates, the economic evaluation of a specific project is highly dependent on the producibility of the target zone, the amount of gas in place, the associated geologic and depositional environment, existing pipeline infrastructure, and local tariffs and taxes. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Energy Economics

Increased prespawning mortality threatens an integrated natural- and hatchery-origin sockeye salmon population in the Lake Washington Basin

The life cycle of diadromous fishes such as salmonids involves natural mortality in a series of distinct life history stages, occurring sequentially in different habitats. Decades of research have emphasized mortality at the embryo, juvenile, and sub-adult stages but it is increasingly clear that some adults that survive and return to freshwater habitats die during the final homeward migration or after they reach the spawning grounds, prior to breeding. These are termed “en route” and “prespawning” mortality, respectively, and can threaten populations depleted by mortality at previous stages. In this study, we present evidence that the sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, population that returns to the Lake Washington Basin, in Washington State, USA, is experiencing both forms of adult mortality. Counts of the salmon entering the basin on their return migration in June and July were compared to counts in the major spawning grounds in September through November for 1995–2018. The disparity has increased markedly in recent years. The counts on the spawning grounds have decreased as a proportion of the number entering the system with an average 49 % of sockeye unaccounted for, consistent with increased en route mortality. In addition, prespawning mortality rates have increased in salmon that reach the Cedar River, the main spawning tributary, both at a hatchery holding adult fish in 1995–2018, and in the naturally spawning populations when monitored in the last five years. Hatchery records indicated <10 % prespawning mortality for 1995–2010, increasing to an average 43 % for 2014 – 2018. Recent carcass surveys in the Cedar River documented that 33.6% (2014), 22.3% (2015), 30.3% (2016) and 50.0% (2018) of female sockeye died before completing spawning. These recent increases in prespawning mortality have been associated with warm water during entry to freshwater, but comparably warm water in past decades had no such effect. Steady warming of river temperatures around the median run completion date from < 8.0 °C to > 13.0 °C was correlated with increased prespawning mortality rates at the hatchery from 1995–2018. We conclude that warming conditions during migration and spawning, in concert with other factors such as infections with pathogens, are responsible for the increased prespawning mortality of adult sockeye salmon that are high enough to threaten the population’s viability.

Washington