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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS1989

Late Quaternary paleolimnology of Walker Lake, Nevada

Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology. ?? 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗
USGS2012

A zonal evaluation of intrinsic susceptibility in selected principal aquifers of the United States

A method was developed to evaluate intrinsic groundwater susceptibility in 11 study areas across the United States. Calibrated groundwater-flow models and a variable-advection particle-tracking scheme that accounts for uncertainty were used to derive ranges of conservative solute concentration and groundwater age within spatially defined zones from solute loading to the water table. Aquifers were partitioned into six zones; four relative depth zones and two zones to represent pumping wells and surface water. Five years after solute was introduced in simulated recharge and stream leakage, normalized zone concentrations were detected at values above 10 -4 in the shallowest aquifer zone, well zone, and surface-water zone for 10 of the 11 study areas. At the 125-year time scale, 9 out of the 11 study areas exhibited detectable concentrations in all zones and the majority of zones possess concentrations that are substantial relative to the source concentration ( ClC o > 10-1). Thresholds defined by the time representing the earliest 1% of groundwater-transit times were used to identify fast transport pathways within the groundwater. The 1% thresholds occurred in a period of days to years for the shallow zone, days to decades for the well and surface-water zones, and years to millennia for the deeper zones. Thresholds defined by the 99th percentile of groundwater travel times were used to reflect late-time response and ranged considerably between study area (~10 2 to ~10 6 years), which highlights the potential for chemical constituents to persist in groundwater for long periods under a conservative state. The results of this investigation provide an instructive example of the intricate relations between climate and aquifer characteristics and their role on solute transport in groundwater. The proposed method accounts for dynamical processes in the aquifer and complements more traditional assessments of susceptibility using (apparent) mean water age.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2024

Fine-resolution land cover mapping over large and mountainous areas for Lāna‘i, Hawaii using posterior probabilities, and expert knowledge

The task of accurately mapping species-specific vegetation cover in remote and topographically complex regions like those found in Hawaiʻi presents unique challenges. This study leverages a machine learning approach to accurately classify vegetation into fine species-specific classes across the island of Lāna‘i, Hawaii, offering a novel methodology for tackling such challenges. Utilizing high-resolution WordView-2 satellite imagery, a neural network classifier and a custom lidar-based geometric correction, we introduced two new approaches to refine our high-resolution land cover classifications. This included the implementation of prior-based adjustments to class posterior probabilities to enhance land cover classification accuracy. Moreover, we developed mixed hierarchical classification maps that use class posterior probabilities to identify, at the pixel level, the finest land cover class that meets a user-defined confidence threshold. The resulting high-resolution land cover map for Lāna‘i captures the rich diversity and distribution of native and invasive plant species with high overall accuracy, generally exceeding 95%, based on independent ground control data. The capacity to produce wall-to-wall species-level vegetation maps provides a new window into monitoring vegetation dynamics on Lāna‘i and similarly remote and topographically complex regions, and contributes to our broader understanding of ecosystem responses to invasive species, climatic changes, and land management practices such as erosion and sediment control planning. Our approach offers a blueprint for similar efforts in other complex and remote ecosystems.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Trophic implications of a phenological paradigm shift: Bald eagles and salmon in a changing climate

Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates ( c . 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management. Synthesis and applications . The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Spatially concentrating logging could mitigate climate-magnified fragmentation risks to a globally endangered bird

1. Rising timber demand is transforming forest structure globally, profoundly affecting biodiversity and climate resilience. Logging-driven fragmentation is potentially a major driver of biodiversity loss in production landscapes, yet its interactions with escalating climate stressors remain poorly understood. 2. We combine two decades of Landsat-derived habitat metrics with 29,000 surveys of the marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus )—an iconic Pacific Northwest old-forest specialist seabird affecting management of >10 million hectares. Controlling for habitat amount and detection probability, increasing landscape-scale forest edge amount sharply reduces murrelet occupancy, with impacts worsening under unfavourable climate-driven ocean conditions. 3. Comparing alternative landscape-scale timber harvest strategies, spatially concentrated logging consistently supports higher murrelet populations than fragmented approaches producing equivalent wood volumes, with benefits amplified under adverse ocean conditions. However, historical harvesting policies in the Pacific Northwest have instead driven severe habitat fragmentation, which we show is eroding the value of core set-aside forests on federal and conservation lands and ultimately rendering murrelets more vulnerable to climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications : We map key opportunities to boost populations by reducing edginess around remaining nesting habitat and investigate these opportunities' spatial distribution across land ownership and timber productivity gradients. Concentrating logging could be critical for mitigating fragmentation and climate threats for murrelets and potentially other forest-dependent species amid rising timber demand.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Temperature thresholds for black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) freeze damage, mortality, and recovery in North America: Refining tipping points for range expansion in a warming climate

Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including data from a regional collaborative network — the Mangrove Migration Network. In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60% of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to ‐7°C. We used temperature and vegetation data from before and after the freeze to quantify temperature thresholds for leaf damage, mortality, and biomass recovery of the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) — the most freeze‐tolerant mangrove species in North America. For A. germinans individuals near their northern range limit, our results indicate that temperature thresholds for leaf damage are close to ‐4°C, but temperature thresholds for mortality are closer to ‐7°C. Thresholds are expected to be warmer for more southern A. germinans individuals and for the other two common mangrove species in the region (Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle). Regenerative buds allowed A. germinans to resprout and recover quickly from aboveground freeze damage. Hence, biomass recovery levels during the first post‐freeze growing season were 90, 78, 62, and 45% for temperatures of ‐4, ‐5, ‐6, and ‐7°C, respectively. Due to a combination of vigorous resprouting and new recruitment from propagules, we expect full recovery at most sites within 1‐3 years, assuming no further freeze events. Synthesis To improve predictions of tropical range expansion in response to climate change, there is a need to better understand tropical species’ responses to winter temperature extremes. Collectively, our results refine temperature thresholds for A. germinans freeze damage, mortality, and recovery, which can improve predictions of mangrove range expansion and coastal wetland ecological transformations in a warming climate.

Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2019

A multi-scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California: Design and validation

A multi‐scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California was designed to inform water resource management. The proposed workflow classifies soil moisture response units (SMRUs) using publicly available datasets that represent soil, vegetation, climate, and hydrology variables, which control soil water storage. The SMRUs were classified, using principal component analysis and unsupervised K‐means clustering within a geographic information system, and validated, using summary statistics derived from measured soil moisture time series. Validation stations, located in the Sierra Nevada, include transect of sites that cross the rain‐to‐snow transition and a cluster of sites located at similar elevations in a snow‐dominated watershed. The SMRUs capture unique responses to varying climate conditions characterized by statistical measures of central tendency, dispersion, and extremes. A topographic position index and landform classification is the final step in the workflow to guide the optimal placement of soil moisture sensors at the local‐scale. The proposed workflow is highly flexible and can be implemented over a range of spatial scales and input datasets can be customized. Our approach captures a range of soil moisture responses to climate across California and can be used to design and optimize soil moisture monitoring strategies to support runoff forecasts for water supply management or to assess landscape conditions for forest and rangeland management.

California↗
USGS1985

Limnocythere bradburyi n.sp.: a modern ostracode from central Mexico and a possible Quaternary paleoclimatic indicator

Limnocythere bradburyi is a new species of nonmarine ostracode that is living in several lakes in the central Mexican Plateau. These lakes are shallow, turbid, and pan-shaped, having relatively unstable and fluid substrates. Water levels of these lakes are high in the summer and low or dry in the winter. These lakes usually contain fresh to slightly saline water during the rainy season (summer-fall) and slightly saline water during the dry season (winter-spring), and have solute composition that is dominated by Na+, HCO3--CO32-, Cl- ions. The regional climate is characterized as humid temperate with mild equitable temperatures throughout the year. Winter temperatures are usually above 0oC, whereas summer temperatures are commonly below 30oC. The water temperature of the lakes containing L. bradburyi generally reflects atmospheric temperatures. The ostracode's life cycle coincides with the climatic wet cycle and is therefore completed during the warmest period of the year, which is in marked contrast to ostracodes living in lakes in the US and Canada that usually begin their life cycle with the spring rain and snow melt in cold water and complete their life cycle in warm water. This contrasting climatic life-cycle pattern between central Mexico and the US may be sufficient to explain why L. bradburyi occurs commonly in many Quaternary deposits in the southwestern US, but has not been found living in the US.

Journal of Paleontology↗
USGS1976

Cenozoic deposits of southeastern New Mexico and an outline of the history of evaporite dissolution

Sedimentary records of Cenozoic history in southeastern New Mexico begin with the Ogallala Formation of Miocene and Pliocene age. Later records include the Gatuna Formation of early or middle Pleistocene age, Mescalero caliche, an informal term, of middle Pleistocene age, and fluvial deposits of late Pleistocene age but there are many gaps in the record. The modern landscape is the result of erosion and deposition in climates that have ranged from semihumid to semiarid as well as dissolution of soluble rocks in Permian formations in the subsurface. This dissolution may have begun as early as Jurassic time and has continued intermittently to the present.

New Mexico↗
USGS2010

Who provided maize to Chaco Canyon after the mid-12th-century drought?

Between A.D. 1181 and 1200, in the early part of a climatically wet period, corn was imported to Chaco Canyon from a region outside the Chaco Halo (defined in this paper as the region between the base of the Chuska Mountains and Raton Wells). Strontium-isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) analyses of 12 corn cobs dating to this period match 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios from five potential source areas, including: the Zuni region, the Mesa Verde-McElmo Dome area, the Totah, the Defiance Plateau, and Lobo Mesa. The latter two areas were eliminated from consideration as possible sources of corn in that they appear to have been unpopulated during the time period of interest. Therefore, it appears that the corn cobs were imported from the Zuni region, the Mesa Verde-McElmo Dome area, or the Totah area during a time when the climate was relatively wet and when a surplus of corn was produced in regions outside Chaco Canyon. Based on proximity to and cultural affiliation with Chaco Canyon, it is hypothesized that the corn probably was imported from the Totah.

Journal of Archaeological Science↗
USGS2023

Integrating urban water fluxes and moving beyond impervious surface cover: A review

Though urban areas represent a small fraction of global land cover, they have an outsized impact on hydrological processes. Within these areas, the pathways that water follows are fundamentally transformed by the disturbance of soils, land cover, vegetation, topography, and built infrastructure. While progress has been made across many cities to quantify interactions between hydrological processes and the urban environment, many fundamental questions remain unanswered. In this article, we review the state of urban hydrologic science, with an eye towards identifying gaps in our understanding of how water flows through built landscapes. Our review focuses on key topics within urban hydrology related to water quantity, including runoff and streamflow generation, soils and soil water, groundwater, vegetation, and climate. We also describe some of the challenges and opportunities within the field of urban hydrology that we envision will drive future work and collaboration.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2002

Fire dynamics and implications for nitrogen cycling in boreal forests

We used a dynamic, long-term mass balance approach to track cumulative carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) losses to fire in boreal Manitoba over the 6500 years since deglaciation. Estimated C losses to decomposition and fire, combined with measurements of N pools in mature and burned forest floors, suggest that loss of N by combustion has likely resulted in a long-term loss that exceeds the amount of N stored in soil today by 2 to 3 times. These estimates imply that biological N fixation rates could be as high as 5 to 10 times atmospheric deposition rates in boreal regions. At the site scale, the amount of N lost is due to N content of fuels, which varies by stand type and fire severity, which in turn vary with climate and fire dynamics. The interplay of fire frequency, fire severity, and N partitioning during regrowth are important for understanding rates and sustainability of nutrient and carbon cycling over millenia and over broad regions.

Manitoba↗
USGS2010

Testing statistical self-similarity in the topology of river networks

Recent work has demonstrated that the topological properties of real river networks deviate significantly from predictions of Shreve's random model. At the same time the property of mean self-similarity postulated by Tokunaga's model is well supported by data. Recently, a new class of network model called random self-similar networks (RSN) that combines self-similarity and randomness has been introduced to replicate important topological features observed in real river networks. We investigate if the hypothesis of statistical self-similarity in the RSN model is supported by data on a set of 30 basins located across the continental United States that encompass a wide range of hydroclimatic variability. We demonstrate that the generators of the RSN model obey a geometric distribution, and self-similarity holds in a statistical sense in 26 of these 30 basins. The parameters describing the distribution of interior and exterior generators are tested to be statistically different and the difference is shown to produce the well-known Hack's law. The inter-basin variability of RSN parameters is found to be statistically significant. We also test generator dependence on two climatic indices, mean annual precipitation and radiative index of dryness. Some indication of climatic influence on the generators is detected, but this influence is not statistically significant with the sample size available. Finally, two key applications of the RSN model to hydrology and geomorphology are briefly discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2004

Impact of antecedent climate on fire regimes in coastal California

Severe fire weather is a major determinant of fire size in coastal California; however, it is unclear to what extent antecedent climate also controls fire activity. This study investigates the relationship between fire activity and climate in central coastal and southern California. Climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), total monthly precipitation, mean monthly maximum temperature and the autumn and winter Southern Oscillation Indices (SOI). For both the central coast and the south coast regions there was no significant relationship between growing season PDSI, precipitation or temperature and number of fires. When examined by season, summer temperatures were positively correlated with number of fires in the central coast and autumn PDSI and precipitation were negatively correlated with fire occurrence in the south coast region. Area burned was not correlated with any current year climate variables in southern California although, in the central coast, drought during spring and autumn were correlated, but explained less than 10% of the variation in the area burned. Although there was a modest relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and local climate parameters, there was only a relatively weak relationship with fire activity. The importance of autumn foehn winds is illustrated by the observation that large fires occur most commonly during the autumn, regardless of PDSI. Antecedent climate, however, does appear to play some role in determining the length of the fire season on these landscape as PDSI is consistently related to the occurrence of large fires that occur before or after the autumn months.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2019

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS1993

Effects of climatic variations over 11 years on nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon River, Iowa

Nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) concentrations at public water supply intakes on the Des Moines and Raccoon Rivers in Iowa exceeded the maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg L-1 for public water supplies established by the USEPA for extended periods of time from March through early August 1990. The excessive NO3-N levels followed 2 yr of less-than normal precipitation in 1988 and 1989. The largest daily NO3-N load (771 t) transported during the last 17 yr in the Raccoon River occurred in June 1990. The streamflow hydrograph for the Raccoon River for March 1990 prior to seasonal fertilizer application indicates that high NO3-N concentrations characterize the recession side of the hydrograph. High NO3-N concentrations in streamflow persisted as streamflow decreased to baseflow conditions. This implies that substantial quantities of NO3-N were being leached from the soil and transported by subsurface flow during early 1990. A multiple linear-regression model was developed to predict NO3-N concentrations in the Raccoon River from readily-obtainable streamflow and climatic data. The four-variable model explained about 70% of the variability in the concentration of NO3-N. The mean streamflow for the previous 7-d period accounted for about 50% of the total variability.

Iowa↗
USGS2020

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida↗
USGS2003

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗