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USGS2026

Resilience thinking for human-wildlife coexistence: Bridging dynamic systems, archetypes, and transformations

As human activities and wildlife increasingly overlap in the Anthropocene, conventional conservation paradigms focused on land-sparing are shifting toward strategies that support human–wildlife coexistence. However, achieving sustainable coexistence is often hindered by a limited understanding of the dynamic social–ecological processes that drive integrated human–wildlife systems. This Special Issue explores “resilience thinking” as a scientific framework to address these knowledge gaps. By bridging sustainability and wildlife sciences, we examine how concepts such as adaptive capacity, feedback loops, system archetypes, and tipping points can illuminate the conditions that facilitate stable coexistence or lead to persistent conflict. Through diverse global case studies ranging from carnivore management in Europe to primate interactions in Indonesia, contributions highlight how societal perceptions, governance, and co-adaptation shape system trajectories. Ultimately, we argue that fostering durable coexistence requires moving beyond incremental adaptation toward transformative governance that centers on equity, relationality, and proactive management.

Ambio↗

USGS2023

Fish functional gradients along a reservoir cascade

1.The transformations of fish assemblages caused by reservoir cascades can be severe at the reach scale, but basin-scale effects are less clear. However, prevailing river concepts provide a framework for predicting basin-scale effects. 2. To determine if predictions made by the River Continuum Concept relative to the function of fish assemblages are sustained in a temperate river transformed into a reservoir cascade, we examined longitudinal trends in the distribution of fish functional traits over 23 reservoirs of the Tennessee River, USA. 3. In all, 115 species were recorded representing 62 traits, with trait richness increasing longitudinally in a downstream direction. Trophic, reproductive, and habitat traits showed various increasing and decreasing patterns up and down the reservoir cascade. The observed gradients in trait richness and trait distributions were generally consistent with those expected in unregulated rivers, with few unexpected results. 4. The transformation of lotic systems into lentic ones has changed habitats and sources of food and encouraged the proliferation of certain feeding (e.g., detritivores, planktivores, invertivores, piscivores), reproduction (e.g., nest spawners polyphils, broadcast spawners phytolithophils), and habitat (slow current, lacustrine, large river) traits. In essence, reservoirs have expanded downstream habitats in an upstream direction, and thus allowed upstream expansion of species and traits that would have normally not been well represented in upper reaches of the Tennessee River basin. Nevertheless, the impounded Tennessee River has maintained much of its functional integrity, despite extensive alterations to the riverscape. 5. We suggest that while reservoirs have been shown to have major local-scale effects on riverine fish assemblages, with access to riverine habitats, and with proactive conservation strategies, fish functional richness can remain remarkably high at the basin scale.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South ↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗

USGS1995

Ecology and conservation of the Marbled Murrelet in North America: An overview

Over the past decade, the Marbled Murrelet has become a focus of much controversy. It was listed as threatened in Washington, Oregon, and California by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in February 1993. In order to aid the various agencies with management, the Marbled Murrelet Conservation Assessment was formed to bring together scientists, managers, and others to gather all the available data on this small seabird. This volume of research is the culmination of that effort. In this chapter, we integrate the results of the investigations and summaries on the past history, present status, and possible future of the species, based on the data presented in this volume and other published research. We also propose what we consider the most important research needs. Then, based on the findings of this volume, we suggest actions for management to help ensure the survival of the species.

Book chapter↗

USGS2022

Hawaiian forest bird conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction: biological and biocultural considerations

The iconic forest birds of Hawai‘i are facing a conservation crisis. Across the Hawaiian Islands, native forest birds have been experiencing population declines that have accelerated in the last one to two decades. While habitat loss, invasive species, and non-native predators have negatively affected forest bird species for hundreds of years, and continue to do so, introduced diseases, particularly avian malaria, are the greatest threat to forest birds today. Further, climate change has increased temperatures in the high-elevation forests, facilitating the spread of disease into areas that were once largely disease-free. Rapid population declines have now (2022) pushed four Hawaiian honeycreeper species to the brink of extinction: the endangered ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) on Kaua‘i Island, and kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and ‘ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) on Maui Island. The biologists that study these birds strongly agree that without a rapid conservation response to the threat of increasing disease mortality there is a high probability these species will go extinct in the coming decade. To help evaluate alternative conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction, we convened diverse groups of experts with broad experience in Hawai‘i forest birds and ecosystems, as well as the management approaches being considered, to assess the probability of success of alternative management actions. In addition to assessing this crisis from a biological perspective, we convened a group of Native Hawaiian participants that have a strong connection to the forest birds, forests, and the integration of their culture in natural and biocultural resource management. They give voice to the significance of forest birds to Native Hawaiians and provide their perspectives on alternative management actions. Broadly, the three alternative management actions being considered to prevent the extinction of forest birds from the increasing threat of disease are (1) landscape-level mosquito control through the Wolbachia incompatible insect technique, (2) captive care, and (3) conservation translocations. The two key components of the problem of preventing extinction in these four bird species is time and risk. For each species, very few individuals remain, and they are all in danger of imminent extinction. Each management action takes time to implement, which might exceed the actual time to extinction. Additionally, each of these conservation actions has potential benefits and inherent risks, as well as substantial uncertainty in terms of being successful. Native Hawaiian perspectives and considerations also vary across the conservation actions. The expert evaluations summarized in this report provide a broad assessment of conservation strategies that could be undertaken to prevent the extinction of ‘akikiki, ‘akeke‘e, kiwikiu, and ‘ākohekohe. While this report does not recommend specific actions, the information is intended to support decision-makers as they assess which, if any, conservation strategies to pursue.

Hawaii↗

USGS2008

Report of the Federal Advisory Committee on the Bird Banding Laboratory

In the fall of 2005, the Directors of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) determined that to ensure that the Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) of the USGS maintains and continues its important support of conservation and management of birds, it should be guided by a clear vision for the future. In order to carry out this task, they impaneled a fourteen-member Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) on the Bird Banding Laboratory. It was made up of representatives of the broad bird-banding community, public and private, and was cochaired by a senior representative from each agency. The Committee met four times and a writing subgroup met three times over the course of its work. The Committee identified a new vision and mission for the BBL and identified six goals that it believes should be integral to the development of a strategic plan to achieve them. Those goals are: 1. Facilitate the identification of individual birds through marking. 2. Create automated, electronic systems that efficiently verify, accept, store, and manage data associated with individually marked birds. 3. Facilitate access to and use of data from marked birds for science, conservation, and management. 4. Administer permits in an efficient, timely, and modern manner, and use them to ensure that bird welfare and data quality remain top priorities. 5. Work closely with national and international partners to achieve the mission of the BBL. 6. Manage the BBL in an efficient, cost-effective manner to maximize use of available resources. Most of the report is structured around these goals. The Committee made 2 programmatic recommendations and identified 23 objectives and 58 specific recommendations. The programmatic recommendations are: (1) that the primary role of the BBL is and should continue to be to support the use of banding and banding data by researchers and managers engaged in science, conservation, and management of birds, and not to play a lead role in original research; and (2) that the BBL be managed nationally by USGS headquarters as a research and operational support unit and provided with the resources appropriate to its national and international functions and responsibilities; it should continue to be located physically at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC). In order to achieve its vision and mission, the Committee believes that the BBL must work towards achieving all of the recommendations in this report. Nevertheless, it identified five objectives that stand out as high priority, and they are as follows: *Objective 1.1?to ensure a continuing, adequate supply of high-quality, Federally issued numeric bands of required sizes, materials, and types; *Objective 2.1?to improve mechanisms for verifying, accepting, storing, and managing bird-banding data; *Objective 2.3?to accommodate recapture data; *Objective 4.1?to ensure through the permitting process that banders know how to safely handle birds, collect data accurately, and maintain birds in humane and healthful conditions; and *Objective 5.3?to encourage the development of banding programs in Latin America and the Caribbean. Finally, this Committee believes that the BBL will be well served if it continues to support a Federal Advisory Committee, composed similarly to this one, to continue offering guidance and direction from the broad bird-banding community.

Circular↗

USGS2018

Evidence and opportunities for integrating landscape ecology into natural resource planning across multiple-use landscapes

Enhancing natural resource management has been a focus of landscape ecology since its inception, but numerous authors argue that landscape ecology has not yet been effective in achieving the underlying goal of planning and designing sustainable landscapes. We developed nine questions reflecting the application of fundamental research topics in landscape ecology to the landscape planning process and reviewed two recent landscape-scale plans in western North America for evidence of these concepts in plan decisions. Both plans considered multiple resources, uses, and values, including energy development, recreation, conservation, and protection of cultural and historic resources. We found that land use change and multiscale perspectives of resource uses and values were very often apparent in planning decisions. Pattern-process relationships, connectivity and fragmentation, ecosystem services, landscape history, and climate change were reflected less frequently. Landscape sustainability was considered only once in the 295 decisions reviewed, and outputs of landscape models were not referenced. We suggest six actionable opportunities for further integrating landscape ecology concepts into landscape planning efforts: 1) use landscape sustainability as an overarching goal, 2) adopt a broad ecosystem services framework, 3) explore the role of landscape history more comprehensively, 4) regularly consider and accommodate potential effects of climate change, 5) use landscape models to support plan decisions, and 6) promote a greater presence of landscape ecologists within agencies that manage large land bases and encourage active involvement in agency planning efforts. Together these actions may improve the defensibility, durability, and sustainability of landscape plan decisions.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗

USGS2006

Natural history, field ecology, conservation biology and wildlife management: Time to connect the dots

Natural history and field ecology are essential building blocks for successful conservation and management of herpetofauna. Thus, natural history and field ecology merit major infusions of funding and increased recognition of their importance in science and management. Others have stated matters well: (1) Academic training in natural history should receive high priority; (2) we need to integrate our work across disciplines (from molecules to communities), and use all of our knowledge toward common goals; (3) natural history is not dead but today is a flourishing enterprise; and (4) mutual respect and collaboration between disciplines best serve our own mental health as well as the future of natural history. We need to merge the best natural history, field ecological data, and biological questions with the latest advances in other fields of inquiry if we are to advance science and solve key environmental issues. It takes a scientific community and many concerned parties to save a species, let alone an ecosystem. We must connect these dots to see the big picture.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗

USGS2011

Conservation of greater sage-grouse- a synthesis of current trends and future management

Recent analyses of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations indicate substantial declines in many areas but relatively stable populations in other portions of the species? range. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats neces-sary to support sage-grouse are being burned by large wildfires, invaded by nonnative plants, and developed for energy resources (gas, oil, and wind). Management on public lands, which con-tain 70% of sagebrush habitats, has changed over the last 30 years from large sagebrush control projects directed at enhancing livestock grazing to a greater emphasis on projects that often attempt to improve or restore ecological integrity. Never-theless, the mandate to manage public lands to provide traditional consumptive uses as well as recreation and wilderness values is not likely to change in the near future. Consequently, demand and use of resources contained in sagebrush land-scapes plus the associated infrastructure to sup-port increasing human populations in the western United States will continue to challenge efforts to conserve Greater Sage-Grouse. The continued widespread distribution of sage-grouse, albeit at very low densities in some areas, coupled with large areas of important sagebrush habitat that are relatively unaffected by the human footprint, sug-gest that Greater Sage-Grouse populations may be able to persist into the future. We summarize the status of sage-grouse populations and habitats, provide a synthesis of major threats and chal-lenges to conservation of sage-grouse, and suggest a roadmap to attaining conservation goals.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Prepublication communication of research results

Publishing of scientific findings is central to the scientific process, and it is traditional to consider findings “provisional” until accepted by a peer-reviewed journal. Until publication, communication of provisional findings beyond participants in the study is typically limited. This practice helps assure scientific integrity. However, a dilemma arises when a provisional finding has urgent societal consequences that may be exacerbated by delay. This dilemma may be particularly pronounced when a discovery concerns wildlife health, which could have implications for conservation, public health (i.e., zoonoses), or domestic animal health (e.g., avian influenza). A scientist may see a need for prepublication communication but consider such communication to be problematic. We suggest that common concerns about directed prepublication communication are generally misplaced. Our perspective comes from natural resources science and management, but we suspect that this situation could arise in any branch of science and that discussing these issues will help scientists who may not routinely work with public officials navigate an unfamiliar situation.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2018

Genetic swamping and species collapse: Tracking introgression between the native Candy Darter and introduced Variegate Darter

Candy Darters ( Etheostoma osburni ) and Variegate Darters (E. variatum ) are both native to West Virginia and Virginia. The geographic ranges of these two species were historically separated by Kanawha Falls, a natural barrier to fish dispersal located at Glen Ferris, WV. In the early 1980s, Variegate Darters or putative hybrids ( E. osburni × E. variatum ) were first collected at locations upstream of Kanawha Falls, and have since undergone range expansion. Hybridization with the Variegate Darter was one of the threats that led to the Candy Darter being proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2017. Genetic and morphologic data were examined for individuals from the New, Gauley, and Greenbrier river drainages. Individuals were genotyped using a suite of 5 diagnostic microsatellite loci to investigate potential hybridization. Widespread hybridization was found throughout populations of Candy Darters, with the geographic range of hybridization expanding from 2004 to 2014. A hybrid zone was observed, with the highest levels of Variegate Darter introgression representing the kernel within this zone and the locations of first-generation (F1) hybrids at the periphery. F1 hybrids were morphologically intermediate within and across characters for parental species. Introgressive hybridization threatens the genetic integrity of the Candy Darter, and may lead to population extirpation or extinction.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination , and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropowerand navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Danube River↗

USGS2025

A monitoring framework to assess forest bird population response to landscape scale mosquito suppression using the Incompatible Insect Technique

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression. Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output. When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit. On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months. Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas. However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Accounting for location uncertainty in azimuthaltelemetry data improves ecological inference

Background Characterizing animal space use is critical for understanding ecological relationships. Animal telemetry technology has revolutionized the fields of ecology and conservation biology by providing high quality spatial data on animal movement. Radio-telemetry with very high frequency (VHF) radio signals continues to be a useful technology because of its low cost, miniaturization, and low battery requirements. Despite a number of statistical developments synthetically integrating animal location estimation and uncertainty with spatial process models using satellite telemetry data, we are unaware of similar developments for azimuthal telemetry data. As such, there are few statistical options to handle these unique data and no synthetic framework for modeling animal location uncertainty and accounting for it in ecological models. We developed a hierarchical modeling framework to provide robust animal location estimates from one or more intersecting or non-intersecting azimuths. We used our azimuthal telemetry model (ATM) to account for azimuthal uncertainty with covariates and propagate location uncertainty into spatial ecological models. We evaluate the ATM with commonly used estimators (Lenth (1981) maximum likelihood and M-Estimators) using simulation. We also provide illustrative empirical examples, demonstrating the impact of ignoring location uncertainty within home range and resource selection analyses. We further use simulation to better understand the relationship among location uncertainty, spatial covariate autocorrelation, and resource selection inference. Results We found the ATM to have good performance in estimating locations and the only model that has appropriate measures of coverage. Ignoring animal location uncertainty when estimating resource selection or home ranges can have pernicious effects on ecological inference. Home range estimates can be overly confident and conservative when ignoring location uncertainty and resource selection coefficients can lead to incorrect inference and over confidence in the magnitude of selection. Furthermore, our simulation study clarified that incorporating location uncertainty helps reduce bias in resource selection coefficients across all levels of covariate spatial autocorrelation. Conclusion The ATM can accommodate one or more azimuths when estimating animal locations, regardless of how they intersect; this ensures that all data collected are used for ecological inference. Our findings and model development have important implications for interpreting historical analyses using this type of data and the future design of radio-telemetry studies.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2022

Large-scale distribution models for optimal prediction of Eastern black rail habitat within tidal ecosystems

Eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) are among the rarest and least-studied birds in North America and were recently listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Spatial models that predict habitat quality across the subspecies range are therefore needed to inform conservation, recovery, and monitoring efforts for this rare bird. We used data from 47,585 call-broadcast surveys collected at 7906 sites over a 3-decade period (1990s, 2000s, 2010s; 23 total years) to build species distribution models for eastern black rails. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy models and predictive model selection to develop multi-scale models that optimally predict habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands while also accounting for imperfect detection of these cryptic birds during field surveys. We also used raster regression techniques to translate model predictions into 30-m resolution maps of habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The model predicted suitability of breeding habitat as a function of wetland attributes (e.g., cover of high marsh and terrestrial border), hydrologic modification, and disturbance from human development measured over multiple spatial scales. We also found differences in habitat relationships for eastern black rails when compared to models that included both North American subspecies of black rail. Important results included negative effects of shrub-scrub wetlands, and strong positive effects of high marsh, terrestrial border, and impoundments on breeding season occupancy. Our study provides an example of integrating detection-non-detection data and modern statistical methods to build predictive distribution models for an extremely rare species, while also providing rigorous predictions of breeding habitat quality for the eastern black rail within tidal wetlands. These models will facilitate optimal monitoring, habitat conservation, and recovery planning efforts for eastern black rails and provide a foundation for future research and conservation of this imperiled bird.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2015

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi , are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Warming in the upper San Francisco Estuary: Patterns of water temperature change from five decades of data

Temperature is a key controlling variable from subcellular to ecosystem scales. Thus, climatic warming is expected to have broad impacts, especially in economically and ecologically valuable systems such as estuaries. The heavily managed upper San Francisco Estuary supplies water to millions of people and is home to fish species of high conservation, commercial, and recreational interest. Despite a long monitoring record (> 50 yr), we do not yet know how water temperatures have already changed or how trends vary spatially or seasonally. We fit generalized additive models on an integrated database of discrete water temperature observations to estimate long-term trends with spatio-seasonal variability. We found that water temperatures have increased 0.017°C yr −1 on average over the past 50 yr. Rates of temperature change have varied over time, but warming was predominant. Temperature increases were most widespread in the late-fall to winter (November to February) and mid-spring (April to June), coinciding with the winter development of juvenile Chinook salmon and spring spawning window of the endangered delta smelt. Warming was fastest in the northern regions, a key fish migration corridor with important tidal wetland habitat. However, no long-term temperature trends were detected in October and were only observed in some regions in May, July, and August. These results can help identify optimal areas for restoration or refugia to buffer the effects of a warming climate, and the methods can be leveraged to understand the spatiotemporal variability in climate warming patterns in other aquatic systems.

California↗

USGS2023

A perched culvert and natural obstructions limit fish dispersal in an intermittent prairie stream

Poorly constructed road crossings block upstream movement of fish into stream reaches that provide critical habitat or connect isolated populations. Although removing these barriers is often a conservation priority, quantifying fish passage following removal has not been well studied, particularly in intermittent streams. In this study, we sought to understand how barriers influence the dispersal of fishes in intermittent prairie streams. We used passive integrated transponder tags and antenna stations to quantify fish movement of 3 prairie-stream fishes (Central Stoneroller Campostoma anomalum [Rafinesque, 1820], Southern Redbelly Dace Chrosomus erythrogaster [Rafinesque, 1820], and Creek Chub Semotilis atromaculatus [Mitchill, 1818]) through a road crossing in an intermittent prairie stream for 3 y before and 3 y after removing a perched culvert. We verified that no upstream fish movement occurred through the culvert, despite large aggregations of tagged fish in the intermittent reach below the culvert. In contrast, tagged individuals of all 3 species were detected above the road crossing in each of the 3 y following removal. We also tracked the recovery of these species, plus the Orangethroat Darter Etheostoma spectabile (Agassiz, 1854), following a severe drought in 2018 in 2 spring-fed tributary reaches, 1 without a downstream barrier and 1 with the removed downstream culvert. Surveys of the tributary reaches showed rapid recovery of fish densities following drought in the tributary without a downstream barrier. However, recovery at the site above the removed culvert appeared to be limited by a natural waterfall. Our observations suggest barrier removal allowed access to spawning habitat within the intermittent reach immediately upstream of the site, but other obstacles or shear distance to perennial spring-fed tributary reaches also limited recolonization following severe drought. Increased connectivity between perennial and intermittent reaches in prairie streams likely benefits fishes by increasing their resilience following disturbance and providing habitat during critical life stages.

Kansas↗