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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Extirpation and recolonization in a metapopulation of an endangered fish, the tidewater goby

The tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), an endangered species in the United States, occurs in a series of isolated coastal wetlands in California. Using historical presence-absence data and our own surveys, we estimated annual rates of extirpation and recolonization for several populations of the goby in southern California. As predicted, large wetlands had lower rates of extirpation than small wetlands. There was a negative but statistically nonsignificant correlation between recolonization rate and distance to the nearest northerly source population. Populations at small sites were sensitive to drought, presumably because droughts can eliminate suitable habitat at small wetlands. Populations in small wetlands have declined over time, even after accounting for variation in stream flow, supporting the species' endangered status. Our study emphasizes the need to understand metapopulation dynamics for conserving species where the unit of conservation is a local population. It is also emphasizes the importance of not treating metapopulations as identical units. Finally, our results provide a means for describing the decline of a species that is complex in time and space and provide insight into how to target protection measures among metapopulations.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2007

At-sea distribution and abundance of seabirds off southern California: A 20-year comparison

We conducted aerial at-sea and coastal surveys to examine the distribution and abundance of seabirds off southern California, from Cambria, California, to the Mexican border. From May 1999-January 2002, we flew 102 d, covered >54,640 km of transect lines, and conducted nine complete surveys of southern California in January, May, and September. We identified 54 species comprising 12 families and counted >135,000 individuals. Seabird densities were greater along island and mainland coastlines than at sea and were usually greatest in January surveys. Densities were greatest at sea near the northern Channel Islands in January and north of Point Conception in May, and lowest in the southwestern portion of the Southern California Bight in all survey months. On coastal transects, seabird densities were greatest along central and southern portions of the mainland coastline from Point Arguello to Mexico. We estimated that 981,000 ?? 144,000 (x?? ?? SE) seabirds occurred in the study area in January, 862,000 ?? 95,000 in May, and 762,000 ?? 72,000 in September. California Gulls (Larus californicus), Western Grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis), and Cassin's Auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) were most abundant in January surveys at sea, whereas Sooty and Short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus griseus and P. tenuirostris), phalaropes (Phalaropus spp.), and Western Gulls (Larus. occidentalis) were most abundant in May and September surveys. On coastal transects, California Gulls, Western Grebes, Western Gulls, and Surf Scoters (Melanitta perspicillata) were most abundant in January; Western Grebes, Western Gulls, Surf Scoters, and Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) were most abundant in May; and Sooty Shearwaters, Short-tailed Shearwaters, Western Gulls, Western Grebes, Brown Pelicans, and Heermann's Gulls (Larus heermanni) were most abundant in September. Compared to historical seabird densities collected in the same area two decades ago (1975-1978 and 1980-1983), abundance was lower by 14% in January, 57% in May, and 42% in September. Common Murres (Uria aalge, ???75% in each season), Sooty Shearwaters (55% in May, 27% in September), and Bonaparte's Gulls (L. Philadelphia, ???95% in each season) had lower densities. Conversely, Brown Pelicans (167% overall), Xantus's Murrelets (Synthliboramphus hypoleucus; 125% overall), Cassin's Auklets (100% overall), Ashy Storm-Petrels (Oceanodroma homochroa, 450% overall) and Western Gulls (55% in May), and Brandt's Cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus, 450% in September) had greater densities. Our results indicate that seabird abundance has declined off the southern California coast in the past two decades, and these declines may be warning signs of environmental degradation in the region or effects of larger forces such as climate change.

Studies in Avian Biology↗
USGS2016

Pathways of fish invasions in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Non-native fish introductions are a major threat to biodiversity and fisheries, and occur through numerous pathways that vary regionally in importance. A key strategy for managing invasions is to focus prevention efforts on pathways posing the greatest risk of future introductions. We identified high-risk pathways for fish establishment in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States based on estimates of probability of establishment and records of previous introductions, which were considered in the context of emerging socioeconomic trends. We used estimates of propagule pressure, species’ environmental tolerance, and size of species pool to assess the risk of establishment by pathway. Pathways varied considerably in historic importance and species composition, with the majority of species introduced intentionally via stocking (primarily for sport, forage, or biocontrol) or bait release. Bait release, private stocking, illegal introductions intended to establish reproducing populations (e.g., of sport fish), aquaculture, and the sale of live organisms all create risks for future invasions in the Mid-Atlantic region. Of these pathways, bait release probably poses the greatest risk of introductions for the Mid-Atlantic region because propagule pressure is moderate, most released species are tolerant of local environmental conditions, and the pool of species available for transplantation is large. Our findings differ considerably from studies in other regions (e.g., bait release is a dominant pathway in the Mid-Atlantic region, whereas illegal introduction of sport fish is dominant in the western US and aquarium releases are dominant in Florida), demonstrating the need for regional-scale assessments of, and management strategies for, introduction pathways.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, North Carolina, Penn↗
USGS2026

21st-century mangrove expansion along the southeastern United States

Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Functional turnover in a prairie-river fish community over 130 years

Objective In many Great Plains rivers, functional turnover—the change in proportional dominance of members in biological communities that fill certain ecological roles—has occurred due to impoundment and habitat alteration. The Powder River of Montana and Wyoming remains one of the few unregulated prairie rivers, but long-term monitoring is limited, so we analyzed changes over time at the functional, assemblage, and species levels. Methods We used fish sampling data from 43 different sources collected from 1893 to 2022 to analyze trends in fish communities. Result Across the main-stem Powder River, Sand Shiner Miniellus stramineus and Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus substantially increased in abundance, whereas Sturgeon Chub Macrhybopsis gelida decreased. While most other species did not show significant changes in relative abundance (although the always rare Lake Chub Couesius plumbeus may have been extirpated), significant functional turnover occurred in the upper river due to increases in generalist feeders, predators, omnivores, and cavity-guarding species, with declines in benthic feeders, invertivores, and pelagic broadcast spawners, among others. Community and functional changes were more substantial in the upper river than in the lower river, possibly due to augmented streamflow from a major tributary. Conclusion Functional turnover within the upper river was substantial despite the relative stability of most individual species, even when the Sand Shiner—the most significantly increasing species—was excluded from analysis. This suggests small but consistent increases and decreases within functional groups, which cumulatively are likely impacting the ecosystem. We hypothesize a complex set of mechanisms causing these changes that offer avenues for future work. The collation of data from disparate studies and the resampling of even a limited number of historical fish collection locations can greatly aid in identifying potential fish community changes in systems where monitoring is limited.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g., in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS2016

Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2019

Comparison of beaver density estimates from aerial surveys of waterways versus transects

Historic beaver-sign (Castor canadensis) survey flights were often conducted over waterways to maximize beaver detections. However, densities determined from strip transect surveys are more useful to compare across and within study areas than waterway indices based on observations per distance flown because transects are more representative of the wider landscape. Yet, it is unknown if, and to what extent, aerial waterway surveys are reflective of transect densities. I conducted aerial surveys for active beaver sign each fall during 2015–2018 over two waterway routes and two corresponding strip-transect routes. The simple linear regression of transect densities on waterway densities (n=8) yielded a reasonable (R2=0.79) preliminary equation for converting historic waterway data to transect densities. Additionally, visual inspection indicated that converted waterway densities reasonably reflected the trend in transect densities in an area where the wider habitat was similar in terms of beaver harvest, land use, and proportion of water features. Although trend was well-reflected, individual waterway densities in this area were only 57-75% of transect densities. In other areas, where water features were limited, visual inspection suggested the trend of waterway densities was less reflective of transect density trend and individual waterway densities overestimated transect densities (up to 309%). Nevertheless, while transect densities are better for comparisons within and across study areas, waterway surveys are still important for timely and specific within-study area insights. This research provides useful benchmark examples of reliability regarding waterway observation indices converted to densities for conservation, research, and management of beaver and their ecosystems. Because these conclusions are based on a small sample, additional research is recommended to better define this relationship especially in areas with differing habitat, beaver harvest, land use patterns, etc.

Minnesota↗
USGS2008

Thiamine Deficiency Complex Workshop final report: November 6-7, 2008, Ann Arbor, MI

Fry mortality which was first observed in the late 1960s in Great Lakes salmonines and in Baltic Sea salmon in 1974 has now been linked to thiamine deficiency (historically referred to as Early Mortality Syndrome, or EMS and M74, respectively). Over the past 14 years significant strides have been made in our understanding of this perplexing problem. It is now known that thiamine deficiency causes embryonic mortality in these salmonids. Both overt mortality and secondary effects of thiamine deficiency are observed in juvenile and adult animals. Collectively the morbidity and mortality (fry and adult mortality, secondary metabolic and behavior affects in juveniles and adult fish) are referred to as Thiamine Deficiency Complex (TDC). A workshop was held in Ann Arbor, MI on 6-7 November 2008 that brought together 38 federal, state, provincial, tribal and university scientists to share information, present data and discuss the latest observations on thiamine status of aquatic animals with thiamine deficiency and the causative agent, thiaminase. Twenty presentations (13 oral and 7 posters) detailed current knowledge. In Lake Huron, low alewife Alosa pseudoharengus abundance has persisted and egg thiamine concentrations in salmonines continue to increase, along with evidence of natural reproduction in lake trout Salvelinus namaycush. Lake Michigan Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha appear to have a lower thiamine requirement than other salmonids in the lake. Lake Ontario American eel Anguilla rostrata foraging on alewife have approximately one third the muscle thiamine compared to eels not feeding on alewife, suggesting that eels may be suffering from thiamine deficiency. Secondary effects of low thiamine exist in Great Lakes salmonines and should not be ignored. Thiaminase activity in dreissenid mussels is extremely high but a connection to TDC has not been made. Thiaminase in net plankton was found more consistently in lakes Michigan and Ontario than other lakes evaluated. The biological role of thiaminase I, associated with thiamine deficiency, remains to be determined whereas thiaminase II has been reported to be part of a salvage pathway leading to thiamine synthesis. The use of gene array technology and 3-dimensional histology is adding new understanding to the affects of thiamine deficiency. Research is needed to determine the thiamine status of species feeding on dreissenids, the environmental sources of thiaminase and the biological role of thiaminase I.

Research Status Report↗
USGS2008

Understanding contaminants associated with mineral deposits

Interdisciplinary studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have resulted in substantial progress in understanding the processes that control the release of metals and acidic water from inactive mines and mineralized areas, the transport of metals and acidic water to streams, and the fate and effect of metals and acidity on downstream ecosystems. The potential environmental effects associated with abandoned and inactive mines, resulting from the complex interaction of a variety of chemical and physical processes, is an area of study that is important to the USGS Mineral Resources Program. Understanding the processes contributing to the environmental effects of abandoned and inactive mines is also of interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including both those responsible for managing lands with historically mined areas and those responsible for anticipating environmental consequences of future mining operations. The recently completed (2007) USGS project entitled 'Process Studies of Contaminants Associated with Mineral Deposits' focused on abandoned and inactive mines and mineralized areas in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona, where there are thousands of abandoned mines. Results from these studies provide new information that advances our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes causing the mobilization, transport, reaction, and fate of potentially toxic elements (including aluminum, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc) in mineralized near-surface systems and their effects on aquatic and riparian habitat. These interdisciplinary studies provide the basis for scientific decisionmaking and remedial action by local, State, and Federal agencies charged with minimizing the effects of potentially toxic elements on the environment. Current (2007) USGS research highlights the need to understand (1) the geologic sources of metals and acidity and the geochemical reactions that release them from their sources, (2) the pathways that facilitate transport from those sources, and (3) the processes that control the fate of the elements once released from the sources. Experts in the fields of economic geology, structural geology, mineralogy, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, ground-water modeling, microbiology, and toxicology came together for a series of studies that address these relationships on scales ranging from the microscopic to the watershed. This Circular presents results and highlights from the detailed, interdisciplinary studies that include investigations in both mining-affected areas and mineralized but unmined areas. The first section of the Circular describes laboratory and site-scale field investigations that primarily focus on mineralogic and biologic controls on the source and release of metals and acidity from mine-waste rock and hydrothermally altered areas. The second section describes a set of basin- to watershed-scale studies that not only investigate the source and release of metals and acidity but also the transport of these constituents away from the source areas. The third section is a summary of results from postremediation ecosystem monitoring. For more information on these and other project-related studies, please visit the project Web site at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/contaminants/index.html. The Web site includes a complete bibliography and detailed descriptions of each interdisciplinary study.

Circular↗
USGS2004

Water-quality and bottom-material characteristics of Cross Lake, Caddo Parish, Louisiana, 1997-99

Cross Lake is a shallow, monomictic lake that was formed in 1926 by the impoundment of Cross Bayou. The lake is the primary drinking-water supply for the City of Shreveport, Louisiana. In recent years, the lakeshore has become increasinginly urbanized. In addition, the land use of the watershed contributing runoff to Cross Lake has changed. Changes in land use and urbanization could affect the water chemistry and biology of the Lake. Water-quality data were collected at 10 sites on Cross Lake from February 1997 to February 1999. Water-column and bottom-material samples were collected. The water-column samples were collected at least four times per year. These samples included physical and chemical-related properties such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance; selected major inorganic ions; nutrients; minor elements; organic chemical constituents; and bacteria. Suspended-sediment samples were collected seven times during the sampling period. The bottom-material samples, which were collected once during the sampling period, were analyzed for selected minor elements and inorganic carbon. Aside from the nutrient-enriched condition of Cross Lake, the overall water-quality of Cross Lake is good. No primary Federal or State water-quality criteria were exceeded by any of the water-quality constituents analyzed for this report. Concentrations of major inorganic constituents, except iron and manganese, were low. Water from the lake is a sodium-bicarbonate type and is soft. Minor elements and organic compounds were present in low concentrations, many below detection limits. Nitrogen and phosphorus were the nutrients occurring in the highest concentrations. Nutrients were evenly distributed across the lake with no particular water-quality site indicating consistently higher or lower nutrient concentrations. No water samples analyzed for nitrate exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 milligrams per liter. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios calculated for Cross Lake, median values for all water-quality sites were within the nitrogen-limited range (less than or equal to 5). Historical Trophic State Indexes for Cross Lake classified the lake as eutrophic. Recent (1998-99) Trophic State Indexes classify Cross Lake as mesotrophic-eutrophic, which might indicate a recution in eutrophication. Sedimentation traps indicate that Cross Lake is filling at an average rate of 0.41 inches per year. Concentrations of fecal-coliform and streptococci bacteria generally were low. Fecal coliform was detected in higher concentrations than fecal streptococci. High bacterial concentrations were measured shortly after rainfall-runoff events, possibly washing bacteria from surrounding areas into the lake.

Louisiana↗
USGS2006

Freshwater and saline loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to Hood Canal and Lynch Cove, western Washington

Hood Canal is a long (110 kilometers), deep (175 meters) and narrow (2 to 4 kilometers wide) fjord of Puget Sound in western Washington. The stratification of a less dense, fresh upper layer of the water column causes the cold, saltier lower layer of the water column to be isolated from the atmosphere in the late summer and autumn, which limits reaeration of the lower layer. In the upper layer of Hood Canal, the production of organic matter that settles and consumes dissolved oxygen in the lower layer appears to be limited by the load of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN): nitrate, nitrite, and ammonia. Freshwater and saline loads of DIN to Hood Canal were estimated from available historical data. The freshwater load of DIN to the upper layer of Hood Canal, which could be taken up by phytoplankton, came mostly from surface and ground water from subbasins, which accounts for 92 percent of total load of DIN to the upper layer of Hood Canal. Although DIN in rain falling on land surfaces amounts to about one-half of the DIN entering Hood Canal from subbasins, rain falling directly on the surface of marine waters contributed only 4 percent of the load to the upper layer. Point-source discharges and subsurface flow from shallow shoreline septic systems contributed less than 4 percent of the DIN load to the upper layer. DIN in saline water flowing over the sill into Hood Canal from Admiralty Inlet was at least 17 times the total load to the upper layer of Hood Canal. In September and October 2004, field data were collected to estimate DIN loads to Lynch Cove - the most inland marine waters of Hood Canal that routinely contain low dissolved-oxygen waters. Based on measured streamflow and DIN concentrations, surface discharge was estimated to have contributed about one-fourth of DIN loads to the upper layer of Lynch Cove. Ground-water flow from subbasins was estimated to have contributed about one-half of total DIN loads to the upper layer. In autumn 2004, the relative contribution of DIN from shallow shoreline septic systems to the upper layer was higher in Lynch Cove (23 percent) than in the entire Hood Canal. Net transport of DIN into Lynch Cove by marine currents was measured during August and October 2004-a time of high biological productivity. The net transport of lower-layer water into Lynch Cove was significantly diminished relative to the flow entering Hood Canal at its entrance. Even though the net transport of saline water into the lower layer of Lynch Cove was only 119 cubic meters per second, estuarine currents between 33 and 47 m were estimated to have carried more than 35 times the total freshwater load of DIN to the upper layer from surface and ground water, shallow shoreline septic systems, and direct atmospheric rainfall. The subsurface maximums in measured turbidity, chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon, and particulate organic nitrogen strongly suggest that the upward mixing of nitrate-rich deeper water is a limiting factor in supplying DIN to the upper layer that enhances marine productivity in Lynch Cove. The presence of phosphate in the upper layer in the absence of dissolved inorganic nitrogen also suggests that the biological productivity that leads to low dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the lower layer of Lynch Cove is limited by the supply of nitrogen rather than by phosphate loads. Although the near-shore zones of the shallow parts of Lynch Cove were sampled, a biogeochemical signal from terrestrial nitrogen was not found. Reversals in the normal estuarine circulation suggest that if the relative importance of the DIN load of freshwater terrestrial and atmospheric sources and the DIN load from transport of saline water by the estuarine circulation in controlling dissolved-oxygen concentrations in Lynch Cove is to be better understood, then the physical forces driving Hood Canal circulation must be better defined.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1997

Translocation of the Palila, an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

The Palila Loxioides bailleui is an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper that is restricted to high-elevation dry woodlands on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii. Palila are absent or occur in small numbers throughout most of their historic range because of habitat loss, predation and avian disease. The Palila's habitat is regenerating as a result of feral ungulate control, but the species is likely to be slow in recolonizing former ranges because of strong site tenacity. In March 1993, we translocated 35 Palila to Kanakaleonui on the eastern slope of Mauna Kea to determine whether we could speed recovery by releasing adult birds in new areas where predators were controlled. At least two pairs of translocated Palila successfully nested at the release site during their first breeding season, and two other pairs constructed nests. The density of Palila at Kanakaleonui in the three years following the translocation was higher than that before translocation. Approximately half of the translocated birds remained at the release site for 2?6 weeks and then homed back to their capture site, >20 km away. Translocations of adult birds and release of captive-reared juvenile Palila, in combination with additional habitat restoration, may be an effective management tool for speeding the recovery of this species.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗
USGS2020

Influence of niche breadth and position on the historical biogeography of seafaring scincid lizards

Niche breadth and position can influence diversification among closely related species or populations, yet limited empirical data exist concerning the predictability of the outcomes. We explored the effects of these factors on the evolution of the Emoia atrocostata species group, an insular radiation of lizards in the western Pacific Ocean and Indo-Australasia composed of both endemic and widespread species that differ in niche occupancy. We used molecular data and phylogeographical diffusion models to estimate the timing and patterns of range expansion, and ancestral reconstruction methods to infer shifts in ecology. We show evidence of multidirectional spread from a centre of origin in western Micronesia, and that the phyletic diversity of the group is derived from a putative habitat specialist that survives in the littoral zone. This species is composed of paraphyletic lineages that represent stages or possible endpoints in the continuum toward speciation. Several descendant species have transitioned to either strand or interior forest habitat, but only on remote islands with depauperate terrestrial faunas. Our results suggest that the atrocostata group might be in the early phases of a Wilsonian taxon cycle and that the capacity to tolerate salt stress has promoted dispersal and colonization of remote oceanic islands. Divergence itself, however, is largely driven by geographical isolation rather than shifts in ecology.

Biological Journal of the Linnean Society↗
USGS2008

Sediment Quality and Comparison to Historical Water Quality, Little Arkansas River Basin, South-Central Kansas, 2007

The spatial and temporal variability in streambed-sediment quality and its relation to historical water quality was assessed to provide guidance for the development of total maximum daily loads and the implementation of best-management practices in the Little Arkansas River Basin, south-central Kansas. Streambed-sediment samples were collected at 26 sites in 2007, sieved to isolate the less than 63-micron fraction (that is, the silt and clay), and analyzed for selected nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus), organic and total carbon, 25 trace elements, and the radionuclides beryllium-7, cesium-137, lead-210, and radium-226. At eight sites, streambed-sediment samples also were collected and analyzed for bacteria. Particulate nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic carbon concentrations in the streambed sediment varied substantially spatially and temporally, and positive correlations among the three constituents were statistically significant. Along the main-stem Little Arkansas River, streambed-sediment concentrations of particulate nitrogen and phosphorus generally were larger at and downstream from Alta Mills, Kansas. The largest particulate nitrogen concentrations were measured in samples collected in the Emma Creek subbasin and may be related to livestock and poultry production. The largest particulate phosphorus concentrations in the basin were measured in samples collected along the main-stem Little Arkansas River downstream from Alta Mills, Kansas. Particulate nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic carbon content in the water and streambed-sediment samples typically decreased as streamflow increased. This inverse relation may be caused by an increased contribution of sediment from channel-bank sources during high flows and (or) increased particle sizes transported by the high flows. Trace element concentrations in the streambed sediment varied from site to site and typically were less than threshold-effects guidelines for possible adverse biological effects. The largest copper, lead, silver, and zinc concentrations, measured for a sample collected from Sand Creek downstream from Newton, Kansas, likely were related to urban sources of contamination. Radionuclide activities and bacterial densities in the streambed sediment varied throughout the basin. Variability in the former may be indicative of subbasin differences in the contribution of sediment from surface-soil and channel-bank sources. Streambed sediment may be useful for reconnaissance purposes to determine sources of particulate nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and other sediment-associated constituents in the basin. If flow conditions prior to streambed-sediment sampling and during water-quality sampling are considered, it may be possible to use streambed sediment as an indicator of water quality for nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic carbon. Flow conditions affect sediment-associated constituent concentrations in streambed-sediment and water samples, in part, because the sources of sediment (surface soils, channel banks) can vary with flow as can the size of the particles transported.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models of harmful algal blooms in flowing waters

Occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in rivers challenge the belief that rivers are not susceptible to HABs because of their short residence times and fluctuating hydrology. Here we present a systematic literature review of predictive and forecasting models for HABs in flowing waters, including rivers, flowing in-stream reservoirs (e.g., run-of-river reservoirs and lock-and-dam systems) and tidal or estuarine systems with riverine processes. The review aimed to understand current and historical modeling approaches for predicting and forecasting river HABs, without restricting to specific taxa, such as cyanobacteria, or modeling endpoints. The review included 162 articles published over nearly 50 years, covering more than 80 rivers worldwide. Eutrophic, non-wadable rivers with in-stream obstruction were commonly modeled, though diverse environmental characteristics were reported. Most articles used algal biomass or chlorophyll as modeling endpoints, with a quarter using novel or unique endpoints. Algal toxins motivated model development in 23% of the articles, however just 5% used algal toxins as an endpoint. Only 6% of the articles modeled benthic HABs; the rest focused on pelagic HABs. There was no standard model used for modeling river HABs. Process-based models were more common (59%) than data-driven approaches (37%), with model formulations ranging from simple to complex, which contrasts with a lake-focused literature review of HAB models that found data-driven models were more common. Models in river settings shared similar input variables as those previously identified for lakes, such as water temperature, nutrients, and light availability. However, streamflow and other transport metrics took prominence in river models compared to lake models. Algal cell physiology (such as growth, predation, and motility) was routinely included as input data or as mathematical formulations in process-based models and these processes were frequently identified as an important predictor by the articles’ authors. Conversely, data-driven models rarely included these processes, instead using predictors related to environmental conditions, such as nutrients, water quality, water temperature, and streamflow. These important proxy predictors have apparent success with modeling overall algal biomass (irrespective of taxa) whereas other factors, such as those related to algal physiology and other biological processes, are likely responsible for more subtle shifts in community composition. These differences highlight the influence of data availability, especially for processes that are difficult, time-consuming, or expensive to measure, on model development and model outcomes, raising questions about the selection of modeling inputs and endpoints. Challenges to advancing river HAB modeling include the lack of site-specific model inputs representing key processes (e.g., photosynthetic parameters and predation rates), overlooked riverine environments like the benthos and side/back-channel areas, lack of information on environmental settings, and poorly reported model performance metrics. This review emphasizes opportunities for advancing river HAB modeling by learning from well-honed estuarine models, supporting current forecasting and operationalization efforts, and developing common datasets for river HAB model development and evaluation.

BioRxiv↗