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Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Ecological Applications

The role of the Wetland Reserve Program in conservation efforts in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

The Mississippi River Alluvial Valley includes the floodplain of the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois, USA, to the Gulf of Mexico. Originally this region supported about 10 million ha of bottomland hardwood forests, but only about 2.8 million ha remain today. Furthermore, most of the remaining bottomland forest is highly fragmented with altered hydrologic processes. During the 1990s landscape-scale conservation planning efforts were initiated for migratory birds and the threatened Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ). These plans call for large-scale reforestation and restoration efforts in the region, particularly on private lands. In 1990 the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act authorized the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP). The WRP is a voluntary program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture that provides eligible landowners with financial incentives to restore wetlands and retire marginal farmlands from agricultural production. As of 30 September 2005, over 275,700 ha have been enrolled in the program in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, with the greatest concentration in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, USA. Hydrologic restoration is common on most sites, with open-water wetlands, such as moist-soil units and sloughs, constituting up to 30% of a given tract. Over 33,200 ha of open-water wetlands have been created, potentially providing over 115,000,000 duck-use days. Twenty-three of 87 forest-bird conservation areas have met or exceed core habitat goals for migratory songbirds and another 24 have met minimum area requirements. The WRP played an integral role in the fulfillment of these goals. Although some landscape goals have been attained, the young age of the program and forest stands, and the lack of monitoring, has limited evaluations of the program's impact on wildlife populations.

Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

Behavioral responses to disturbance in freshwater mussels with implications for conservation and management

Knowledge about the ability of freshwater unionid mussels to recover from physical disturbance is important to their conservation and management. Threatened species may be disturbed by relocation to refugia as a conservation measure, and some species are disturbed by size- and species-selective harvesting of shells for use in the production of cultured pearls. The activity of freshwater unionid mussels generally decreases with water temperature, but intra- and interspecific differences in the frequency and distribution of recovery behaviors following disturbances at specific water temperatures have not been previously quantified. We observed righting, moving, and burrowing behavior of 4 mussel species, Amblema plicata plicata, Potamilus alatus, Fusconaia flava, and Lampsilis cardium, at 3 water temperatures (7, 14, and 21°C). The temporal frequency (intensity) and times-to-1st-event of behaviors were analyzed using proportional hazards models. Righting events and consecutive movements occurred at different intensities among temperatures and species. For righting, intensity increased by 8%/°C within the range of 7-21°C. Subsequent movements increased in intensity by 10%/°C. Amblema plicata was the slowest to respond, and had an intensity of turning upright only 27% of that for P. alatus. The intensities of movements for A. plicata and F. flava were 16% of those for P. alatus. Lampsilis cardium righted themselves most quickly, and had an intensity of righting 124% of that for P. alatus. The distribution of the 3 behaviors among treatment groups at 1 wk was analyzed with a proportional odds model. The distribution of righting, moving, and burrowing 1 wk after disturbance was described entirely by high-order interactions in our proportional odds model. Therefore, that model revealed little interpretable pattern in the endpoint data and it was less sensitive than our analysis of time-to-event data for measuring the effects of disturbance. We attributed the difference in sensitivity between the 2 models to the greater information content of time-until-event data. For similar studies of occurrences of key events, times to events should be recorded and interpreted whenever feasible and consistent with study objectives. Our results suggest that water temperature has an important effect on the outcome of mussel conservation projects and commercial harvesting activities. Our modeling approach, applied to other species, could help guide decisions about which species can safely be disturbed and the optimal seasonal timing of those disturbances.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ

Report of the American Ornithologists' Union Committee on Conservation 1975-76

This Committee's report for 1974-75 (Marshall et al. 1975, Auk 92 (4, Suppl.): lB-16B) summarized activities affecting bird conservation in the United States and Canada since 1973, including new legislation, international activities, avian conflicts with industrial and population growth, and habitat preservation. It also summarized the status of many of the endangered birds of North America, and a few critically endangered species elsewhere. The concern expressed in the report for greater participation of scientists outside government in the affairs of government has led to the formation of an AOU Committee on Public Responsibility. This report focuses on avian conservation problems in two areas, Puerto Rico and the islands of the Bering Sea. Both areas have conservation problems that are significant to ornithologists, there have been major new developments in the status of the birds and their habitats in these areas in the last few years, yet neither area has received the attention this committee feels it deserves. The Committee thanks Noel Snyder and George Gee for their contributions to this report.

The Auk

Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

Increasing numbers of regional, multiple species conservation plans have been developed in California since the early 1990s. However, building effective monitoring and adaptive management programs to support these plans has remained a challenge. In addition to collecting data on the status of resources and the results of management actions, monitoring programs for these plans need to resolve critical uncertainties and channel information into effective decisionmaking. Because of the broad goals of many regional conservation plans, monitoring programs need to address ecosystem integrity and biodiversity while also tracking species ?covered? by plan permits. In this document we provide a step-by-step procedure for developing effective monitoring programs in an adaptive management context. The guidance provided here has been gleaned from experience with large multiple species plans in southern California. The process begins with clearly defining program objectives, partitioning the program into manageable but meaningful pieces, and developing management-oriented conceptual models of system function. Then, based on the objectives and conceptual models, monitoring recommendations and critical uncertainties can be identified and a coordinated program designed. We include practical examples and insights from programs in southern California and discuss the evolution of monitoring and adaptive management programs through three successive stages: 1) inventorying resources and identifying relationships; 2) pilot testing of long-term monitoring and resolving critical management uncertainties; and 3) implementing long-term monitoring and adaptive management. Ultimately, the success of regional conservation planning depends on the ability of monitoring programs to confront the challenges of adaptively managing and monitoring complex ecosystems and diverse arrays of sensitive species.

Technical Report

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example. “As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

Wyoming

Water-Quality Data, 1999-2005, and Ground-Water Level Data, 2004-2005, for McBaine Bottoms, Including the Eagle Bluffs Conservation Area, Columbia, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Columbia, Missouri, and the Missouri Department of Conservation, collected ground-water quality data from June 1999 through August 2005, surface-water quality data from August 1999 through August 2003, and water-level data from February 2004 through August 2005 in McBaine Bottoms, southwest of Columbia. McBaine Bottoms, adjacent to the Missouri River, is the location of the municipal-supply well field for the city of Columbia, the city of Columbia wastewater-treatment wetlands, and the Missouri Department of Conservation Eagle Bluffs Conservation Area. This report presents water-quality data, which include water-quality analyses of samples collected from 36 water-quality sampling sites (31 were wells and 5 were surface-water sites), and ground-water level data, which include water-level measurements from more than 80 wells. Water samples were analyzed for physical properties, inorganic chemical constituents, nutrients, and dissolved iron. Selected samples were analyzed for trace elements, wastewater organic compounds, and pesticides. In samples from monitoring wells, chloride concentrations ranged from 2.41 to 259 mg/L (milligrams per liter), sodium concentrations ranged from 1.08 to 175 mg/L, and sulfate concentrations ranged from less than 0.2 to 271 mg/L (all concentrations were dissolved). Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.05 to 0.46 mg/L. Total phosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.04 to 1.68 mg/L, dissolved phosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.04 to 1.50 mg/L, and dissolved orthophosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 1.83 mg/L. Dissolved iron concentrations ranged from less than 6 to 42,900 g/L (micrograms per liter). Dissolved arsenic concentrations in samples from two monitoring wells ranged from 11 to 37 g/L. In samples from surface-water sampling sites, chloride concentrations ranged from 8.67 to 289 mg/L, sodium concentrations ranged from 6.18 to 219 mg/L, and sulfate concentrations ranged from 33.4 to 119 mg/L. All of the minimum concentrations were detected in samples from Perche Creek. Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.05 to 1.53 mg/L. Total phosphorous concentrations ranged from 0.07 to 3.06 mg/L, dissolved phosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.05 to 2.88 mg/L, and dissolved orthophosphorous concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 2.86 mg/L. Most of the maximum concentrations were detected in samples from the city outflow. More than 35 wastewater organic compounds and pesticides were detected in samples from the city outflow. However, most concentrations were estimated or their presence verified, but not quantified. Water levels in monitoring wells ranged from 548.54 to 576.55 ft (feet) above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29). The difference in water levels from February 2004 to August 2005 ranged from 0.13 ft to 10.97 ft.

Data Series

Conservation genetics in the USGS

Conservation genetics is the application of the tools and concepts of genetics to the conservation of biological resources. Once too sophisticated and expensive for routine use, the tools of conservation genetics are now widely used to address many complex management questions. These novel methods of analysis can augment assessments made with traditional methods and can bring new information to light. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is well suited to provide scientific information and expertise using these tools to support the management of biological resources.

Fact Sheet

Pollinator conservation and climate science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction Ecosystems—whether agricultural, urban, or natural—depend on pollinators, great and small. Pollinators in the form of bees, birds, butterflies, bats, and even moths provide vital, but often invisible services, from contributing to biodiverse terrestrial wildlife and plant communities to supporting healthy watersheds. Pollinator declines worldwide have been noted as land-use and climate changes occur on the landscape. This is alarming because up to 75 percent of crop species that are important for human food production depend on pollinators for production. Biodiversity of pollinators in the United States includes more than 4,000 species of insects, birds, and mammals. Pollinator species in the United States are in crisis based on broad-scale changes in land-use and climate. The Committee on the Status of Pollinators in North America summarized active and passive management alternatives to benefit pollinators and reduce their decline. Because assessment of pollinators in the United States has historically lagged behind other regions of the world, the Committee challenged the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop conservation plans, for pollinators, including quantification of the effects of climate change. As an example of the immediate need to focus efforts on pollinator conservation, Inouye and others cited the USFWS’s 2017 listing of the rusty-patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ) as Endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973. Strategies are developed to accomplish pollinator conservation goals and the USGS is contributing scientific expertise toward those goals.

Fact Sheet

Your land, your water—Using research to guide conservation practices on local farms in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Agricultural lands are an important part of the economy and heritage of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and are a focus of conservation activities. Streams and rivers around farms provide communities with drinking water and recreational opportunities, but these local benefits can be impaired by elevated nutrient and sediment concentrations. Compared to inputs from the atmosphere, wastewater, and urban and suburban areas, agricultural lands are the largest source of nutrients and sediment in many Chesapeake Bay streams. Farmers are voluntary conservation partners and have an important role in improving water-quality conditions. This fact sheet summarizes recent scientific insights from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that can help farmers use conservation practices and their knowledge of local site conditions to achieve cleaner water.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Foundational science in flight—USGS bird programs support conservation, culture, and a thriving U.S. economy

Birds are vital to our economy, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Investing in bird conservation benefits communities, businesses, and working lands while reinforcing our nation’s legacy of stewardship and biodiversity. By valuing birds, we ensure a richer, healthier, and more vibrant future for all Americans. The USGS leads two national bird monitoring programs Thriving bird populations contribute over $ 100 billion in related purchases to the U.S. economy annually, helping to support 1.4 million jobs and $ 90 billion in labor-related income. Across our nation, Federal and State wildlife agencies, Flyway Councils, non-governmental organizations, and more consider data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to be critical to meeting their mandates to set healthy harvest levels and in identifying species of conservation need. However, without stable and sufficient resources for the BBL and BBS, the capacity to monitor and address the rapidly evolving needs of migratory bird populations is at risk, jeopardizing the foundation of collaborative conservation efforts across North America.

Fact Sheet

Selected effects of the Conservation Reserve Program on program participants: A report to survey respondents

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) established under the 1985 Food Security Act was initially designed to provide the agricultural community economic assistance while protecting highly erodible cropland. Many of the environmental benefits to soil, water, and wildlife resources have been documented (Dunn and others, 1993; Ryan and others, 1998; Flather and others, 1999; Heard and others, 2000). However, the personal and social effects of the program on CRP participants (or contractees) had not been formally documented. Information had been limited to anecdotal comments from individual participants, such as: “since establishment of the CRP the streams have surface water in them” or “the CRP grasses capture drifting snow, making winter feeding of cattle easier.” The Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) wanted to have a better picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the program, according to those most affected by it. In addition, policy makers wanted to get input from program participants on the growing emphasis of the program on long-term management and wildlife habitat requirements. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to survey CRP contractees on these issues. Preliminary results from this study have been furnished to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and are being considered as new conservation and management policies for the CRP are being developed (as part of the recently passed Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002). This report includes preliminary results of the study and is being sent to survey respondents. A formal publication of survey results is also being prepared and should be completed by the winter of 2002.

Open-File Report

The effect of offering distance education on enrollment in onsite training at the National Conservation Training Center

The objective of this study was to explore the effect that providing distance education courses would have on enrollment in courses offered on the campus of the National Conservation Training Center. This is an exploratory study and the results should be interpreted as preliminary rather than conclusive. The study included two components: analysis of existing training-enrollment data for the time period from October 1, 2007 to June 24, 2009, and a survey of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) employees regarding their preferences for onsite training and distance education. The analysis of training-enrollment data included training records for 2,823 Service employees. Using this dataset, we created a database that included region, supervisory status, number of enrollments in online training, instructor-led web-based classes, correspondence courses, courses at the campus of the National Conservation Training Center, and instructor-led courses off campus. Our analyses focused on differences between enrollment in distance education and onsite courses and the effects of regional affiliation, supervisory status, and course format. Generally, the regions closest to the campus had higher enrollment in onsite training and regions farther away had higher enrollment in distance education. Nonsupervisors were more likely to enroll in training on campus and supervisors were more likely to enroll in instructor-led training off site. Enrollment in instructor-led courses was higher than in self-paced courses, although this may result from fewer offerings of self-paced courses. The second component of the study involved a survey of Service employees regarding their preferences for distance education and onsite training. The survey was administered online and 911 Service employees responded. Overall, survey respondents indicated a small preference for onsite training and were more likely to enroll in onsite courses than distance education. When asked to indicate reasons that would lead them to choose one type of training over the other, practical reasons were more frequently indicated as influential in the decision to enroll in distance education and interactions with others were more frequently cited as reasons to enroll in onsite training.We conclude that the information we assembled and analyzed indicates that distance education currently functions as a supplemental approach to training when participation in training onsite at the National Conservation Training Center campus is impractical.

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative-2010 Annual Report

This is the third report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. The first report described activities for 2007 and 2008, and the second report covered work activities for FY09. This third report covers work activities conducted in FY2010, and it continues the 2009 approach of reporting on all the individual activities to help give WLCI partners and other readers the full scope of what has been accomplished. New in this year's report is an additional section for each work activity that outlines the work planned for the following fiscal year. In FY2010, there were 35 ongoing/expanded, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis; (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research; (3) Data and Information Management; (4) Integration and Coordination; and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The three new work activities were to (1) compile existing water data for the entire WLCI region and (2) develop regional curves (statistical models) for relating bankfull-channel geometry and discharge to drainages in the WLCI region, both of which will help guide long-term monitoring of water resources; and (3) initiate a groundwater-monitoring network to evaluate potential effects of energy-development activities on groundwater quality where groundwater is an important source of public/private water supplies. Results of the FY2009 work to develop methods for assessing soil organic matter and mercury indicated that selenium and arsenic levels may be elevated in the Muddy Creek Basin; thus, the focus of that activity was shifted in FY2010 to evaluate biogeochemical cycling of elements in the basin. In FY2010, two ongoing activities were expanded with the addition of more sampling plots: (a) the study of how greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) use vegetation-treatment areas (sites added to the Moxa Arch Natural Gas Development area) and (2) the study of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) occurrence in burn treatments of the Little Mountain Ecosystem. The activity that entails evaluating relationships between ungulate herbivory and fire on aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment also was expanded to include relationships between stand characteristics of and herbivory on aspen in various ecohydrological settings. The USGS continued compiling data and developing geospatial products from all of its WLCI activities to support (1) ranking and prioritizing of proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI Integrated Assessment, and (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan. Two activities were completed in FY2010: (1) the conceptual modeling and indicator selection for monitoring resource conditions across the WLCI region, and (2) the literature review on effects of oil and gas development in western regions of the United States, both of which are in the last stages of publication.

Open-File Report

Conservation Effects Assessment Project-Wetlands assessment in California's Central Valley and Upper Klamath River Basin

Executive Summary-Ecosystem Services Derived from Wetlands Reserve Program Conservation Practices in California's Central Valley and Oregon's Upper Klamath River Basin. The Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) is one of several programs implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Since the WRP's inception in 1990, it has resulted in the restoration of approximately 29,000 hectares in California's Central Valley (CCV) and roughly 12,300 hectares in Oregon's Upper Klamath River Basin (UKRB). Both the CCV and UKRB are agricultural dominated landscapes that have experienced extensive wetland losses and hydrological alteration. Restored habitats in the CCV and UKRB are thought to provide a variety of ecosystem services, but little is known about the actual benefits afforded. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit in collaboration with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service surveyed 70 WRP sites and 12 National Wildlife Refuge sites in the CCV, and 11 sites in the UKRB to estimate ecosystem services provided. In the CCV, sites were selected along three primary gradients; (1) restoration age, (2) management intensity, and (3) latitude (climate). Sites in the UKRB were assessed along restoration age and management intensity gradients where possible. The management intensity gradient included information about the type and frequency of conservation practices applied at each site, which was then ranked into three categories that differentiated sites primarily along a hydrological gradient. Information collected was used to estimate the following ecosystem services: Soil and vegetation nutrient content, soil loss reduction, floodwater storage as well as avian, amphibian, fish, and pollinator use and habitat availability. Prior to this study, very little was known about WRP habitat morphology in the CCV and UKRB. Therefore in this study, we described these habitats and related them to ecosystem services provided. Our results indicate that although WRP in the CCV and UKRB provide a number of benefits, there may be management mediated trade-offs among ecosystem services. In this report, we considered ecosystem services at the site-specific scale; however, future work will extend to include effects of WRP relative to surrounding cropland.

California

Summary of science, activities, programs, and policies that influence the rangewide conservation of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

The Greater Sage-Grouse, has been observed, hunted, and counted for decades. The sagebrush biome, home to the Greater Sage-Grouse, includes sagebrush-steppe and Great Basin sagebrush communities, interspersed with grasslands, salt flats, badlands, mountain ranges, springs, intermittent creeks and washes, and major river systems, and is one of the most widespread and enigmatic components of Western U.S. landscapes. Over time, habitat conversion, degradation, and fragmentation have accumulated across the entire range such that local conditions as well as habitat distributions at local and regional scales are negatively affecting the long-term persistence of this species. Historic patterns of human use and settlement of the sagebrush ecosystem have contributed to the current condition and status of sage-grouse populations. The accumulation of habitat loss, persistent habitat degradation, and fragmentation by industry and urban infrastructure, as indicated by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) findings, presents a significant challenge for conservation of this species and sustainable management of the sagebrush ecosystem. Because of the wide variations in natural and human history across these landscapes, no single prescription for management of sagebrush ecosystems (including sage-grouse habitats) will suffice to guide the collective efforts of public and private entities to conserve the species and its habitat. This report documents and summarizes several decades of work on sage-grouse populations, sagebrush as habitat, and sagebrush community and ecosystem functions based on the recent assessment and findings of the USFWS under consideration of the Endangered Species Act. As reflected here, some of these topics receive a greater depth of discussion because of the perceived importance of the issue for sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse populations. Drawing connections between the direct effects on sagebrush ecosystems and the effect of ecosystem condition on habitat condition, and finally the connection between habitat quality and sage-grouse population dynamics remains an important goal for science, management, and conservation. This effort is necessary, despite the perception that these complicated, indirect relations are difficult to characterize and manage, and the many advances in understanding and application developed toward this end have been documented here to help inform regional planning and policy decisions.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Montana;Nebraska;Nevad

Modeling elk and bison carrying capacity for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Baca National Wildlife Refuge, and The Nature Conservancy's Medano Ranch, Colorado

Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the neighboring Baca National Wildlife Refuge constitute an extraordinary setting that offers a variety of opportunities for outdoor recreation and natural resource preservation in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Adjacent to these federal lands, the Nature Conservancy (TNC) manages the historic Medano Ranch. The total land area of these three conservation properties is roughly 121,500 hectares (ha). It is a remote and rugged area in which resource managers must balance the protection of natural resources with recreation and neighboring land uses. The management of wild ungulates in this setting presents challenges, as wild ungulates move freely across public and private landscapes. The San Luis Valley was historically used for irrigated agriculture and ranching. Historically, livestock, including sheep ( Ovis aries ) and cattle ( Bos taurus ), were grazed throughout the valley. The former Luis Marie “Baca” Ranch, which makes up the northern part of Great Sand Dunes National Park (hereafter “Park”) and all of the Baca National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter “Refuge”), was actively grazed by cattle until 2004. Bison ( Bison bison ), elk ( Cervus elaphus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) were native to the area until about the 1840s, when bison, elk, and pronghorn were extirpated. Elk and pronghorn likely moved back into the area from surrounding populations to the north and south, and mule deer populations have varied through time. A population of 4,400 elk currently inhabits the area. The current bison population was established in 1986 for meat production. In 1999 TNC purchased the ranch and established a bison conservation herd, and eventually subcontracted management to a private rancher in 2005. A population of bison ranging in size from 1,200–2,000 ranges freely within the 16,100 ha Medano Ranch. Ungulate populations in the valley are regulated by hunting, with the exception of bison, which are rounded up and culled annually to maintain population levels. In an effort to create and form the basis of a multi-agency ungulate management plan for the region, the Park sought the development of an elk and bison ecological carrying capacity model to provide guidance to resource managers.

Colorado

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming