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A bootstrap approach to computing uncertainty in inferred oil and gas reserve estimates

This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey’s 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.

Natural Resources Research

Intrusive rock database for the Digital Geologic Map of Utah

Digital geologic maps offer the promise of rapid and powerful answers to geologic questions using Geographic Information System software (GIS). Using modern GIS and database methods, a specialized derivative map can be easily prepared. An important limitation can be shortcomings in the information provided in the database associated with the digital map, a database which is often based on the legend of the original map. The purpose of this report is to show how the compilation of additional information can, when prepared as a database that can be used with the digital map, be used to create some types of derivative maps that are not possible with the original digital map and database. This Open-file Report consists of computer files with information about intrusive rocks in Utah that can be linked to the Digital Geologic Map of Utah (Hintze et al., 2000), an explanation of how to link the databases and map, and a list of references for the databases. The digital map, which represents the 1:500,000-scale Geologic Map of Utah (Hintze, 1980), can be obtained from the Utah Geological Survey (Map 179DM). Each polygon in the map has a unique identification number. We selected the polygons identified on the geologic map as intrusive rock, and constructed a database (UT_PLUT.xls) that classifies the polygons into plutonic map units (see tables). These plutonic map units are the key information that is used to relate the compiled information to the polygons on the map. The map includes a few polygons that were coded as intrusive on the state map but are largely volcanic rock; in these cases we note the volcanic rock names (rhyolite and latite) as used in the original sources Some polygons identified on the digital state map as intrusive rock were misidentified; these polygons are noted in a separate table of the database, along with some information about their true character. Fields may be empty because of lack of information from references used or difficulty in finding information. The information in the database is from a variety of sources, including geologic maps at scales ranging from 1:500,000 to 1:24,000, and thesis monographs. The references are shown twice: alphabetically and by region. The digital geologic map of Utah (Hintze and others, 2000) classifies intrusive rocks into only 3 categories, distinguished by age. They are: Ti, Tertiary intrusive rock; Ji, Upper to Middle Jurassic granite to quartz monzonite; and pCi, Early Proterozoic to Late Archean intrusive rock. Use of the tables provided in this report will permit selection and classification of those rocks by lithology and age. This database is a pilot study by the Survey and Analysis Project of the U.S. Geological Survey to characterize igneous rocks and link them to a digital map. The database, and others like it, will evolve as the project continues and other states are completed. We release this version now as an example, as a reference, and for those interested in Utah plutonic rocks.

Utah

Empirical transfer functions for stations in the Central California seismological network

A sequence of calibration signals composed of a station identification code, a transient from the release of the seismometer mass at rest from a known displacement from the equilibrium position, and a transient from a known step in voltage to the amplifier input are generated by the automatic daily calibration system (ADCS) now operational in the U.S. Geological Survey central California seismographic network. Documentation of a sequence of interactive programs to compute, from the calibration data, the complex transfer functions for the seismographic system (ground motion through digitizer) the electronics (amplifier through digitizer), and the seismometer alone are presented. The analysis utilizes the Fourier transform technique originally suggested by Espinosa et al (1962). Section I is a general description of seismographic calibration. Section II contrasts the 'Fourier transform' and the 'least-squares' techniques for analyzing transient calibration signals. Theoretical consideration for the Fourier transform technique used here are described in Section III. Section IV is a detailed description of the sequence of calibration signals generated by the ADCS. Section V is a brief 'cookbook description' of the calibration programs; Section VI contains a detailed sample program execution. Section VII suggests the uses of the resultant empirical transfer functions. Supplemental interactive programs by which smooth response functions, suitable for reducing seismic data to ground motion, are also documented in Section VII. Appendices A and B contain complete listings of the Fortran source Codes while Appendix C is an update containing preliminary results obtained from an analysis of some of the calibration signals from stations in the seismographic network near Oroville, California.

Open-File Report

Estimating peak discharges of small rural streams in Massachusetts

Floodflows on natural-flow streams in Massachusetts with drainage areas between 0.25 square miles and 260 square miles may be estimated from drainage area, main-channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the area of swamps, lakes, and ponds. Multiple-regression techniques were used to define the relationship between a suite of basin and climatic characteristics and flood peaks in three flood-frequency regions at a total of 95 sites. Station flood-frequency data were computed following guidelines in Bulletin I7A of the U.S. Water Resources Council. The frequency analyses are based upon weighted skew values, and adjustments for high and low outliers, and historic peak data. Regression equations for estimation of peak discharges for 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 exceedance probabilities are provided for ungaged sites. An improved sample of flood peaks and gaging stations and the definition of three flood-frequency regions reduced the standard error of estimate by about 5 percent over those for the 1977 relations. Included in this analysis were the synthetic flood-frequency data at eight sites computed using historic climatic data and 10 parameters optimized by calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey's rainfall-runoff model with storm data observed over II years. The equations are applicable to streams unaffected by regulation where the usable manmade storage is less than 4.5 million cubic feet per square mile, or by diversions or urbanization. The equations are restricted to sites where the basin indices are within a specified range outside of eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes or Nantucket Counties. In these areas, the available data do not adequately define the influence of high infiltration and storage capacities of drainage basins on floodflows.

Massachusetts

Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system in the St. Louis River basin, Minnesota

The St. Louis River Basin (SLRB) covers 3,600 square miles in northeastern Minnesota, with headwaters in the Mesabi Range and extensive wetlands and lakes throughout the basin. To better understand the regional groundwater system in the SLRB, a two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the SLRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Ojibwe Bands, using the analytic-element computer code GFLOW. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels and streamflows. The calibrated regional model was locally refined to create a smaller version of the model, the central SLRB model, that was used to evaluate hydrologic effects from extensive ditching in wetlands of the central SLRB. The refinements included adding ditches that were not represented in the regional model and modifying the aquifer base elevation to be more representative of the localized area. The central SLRB model was recalibrated to better match the distribution of mapped wetlands. Two scenarios were run of the central SLRB model: one with ditches and one without ditches. The model results were compared between the two scenarios to assess the effect of ditching on the groundwater system and potential changes to hydrologic conditions that support wetlands. Calibration of the regional SRLB model resulted in average horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 6–39 feet per day for the glacial deposits and 3–4 feet per day for the uppermost fractured bedrock in the Biwabik Iron-Formation on the Mesabi Range. Average recharge across the calibrated model was 5.9 inches per year. Linesink resistance for the routed stream network was calibrated by using resistance categories based on the mapped soil hydrologic groups. The modeled regional groundwater-flow direction was generally to the south near the Mesabi Range topographic high and south or southwest across the rest of the basin. The updated calibration of the central SLRB model resulted in average horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 5–36 feet per day for the glacial deposits and 3 feet per day for the uppermost fractured Biwabik Iron-Formation of the Mesabi Range. Average recharge across the ditch scenarios was 4.1 inches per year. Comparison of the preditch and postditch model scenarios showed that ditching reduced the area where the modeled water table was within 1 foot of the land surface (a wetland hydrology indicator) in as much as 40,000 acres, or 37 percent, of mapped permanent wetlands in the SLRB. An increase in the depth to the water table in wetland areas has the potential to degrade wetland persistence or function.

Minnesota

Load estimation and trend analysis for nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, 2011–18

Lake Eucha is a source of water for public supply and recreation for the residents of Tulsa and other municipalities in northeastern Oklahoma. Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek flow into Lake Eucha and drain about 388 square miles of agricultural and forested land in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Beginning in the 1990s, eutrophication of Lake Eucha characterized by excessive algal blooms resulted in taste and odor problems associated with lake water when it is used for public supply. The predominant sources of phosphorus in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area were identified by previous investigators as runoff from fertilized agricultural areas (nonpoint sources) and treated effluent from a wastewater-treatment plant (point source). To further evaluate the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the City of Tulsa, estimated the loads and computed temporal trends of these constituents from water-quality and streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages in the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Estimates and comparisons of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins to Lake Eucha during 2011–18 were made by using different types of regression equations. The first type of regression equation is referred to as “daily mean load regression equations” and was developed from water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and daily mean streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages. The second type of regression equation is referred to as “instantaneous continuous load regression equations.” In addition to water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples, continuous real-time (every 15 minutes) measurements of physicochemical properties (specific conductance, water temperature, and turbidity), and continuous streamflow data were used to estimate instantaneous continuous loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment at two of the same five streamgages where daily mean loads were estimated. The use of these two types of regression equations was documented by previous investigators who estimated loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the study area by using data collected during 2002–10. The regression equations used to estimate constituent loads that were based on water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and continuous water-quality and streamflow data (instantaneous continuous load regression equations) better described the temporal variance in constituent loads compared to the regression equations based only on periodic water-quality data and daily mean streamflows (daily mean load regression equations). Estimates computed using instantaneous continuous load regression equations showed that mean annual loads of 1,844,000 pounds of total nitrogen, 150,300 pounds of total phosphorus, and 78,735,000 pounds of suspended sediment were transported into Lake Eucha from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Most of the estimated mean annual loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins entered Lake Eucha during runoff conditions, including about 80 percent of total nitrogen, 95 percent of total phosphorus, and 98 percent of suspended sediment. Daily, annual, and mean annual load estimates varied substantially, depending on streamflow conditions and the independent variables used to develop the regression equations. Daily and annual loads estimated from instantaneous continuous load regression equations that included specific conductance, water temperature, turbidity, and streamflow described the variability in the field data better than did loads estimated from daily mean load regression equations that included streamflow, seasonality, and time. Loads estimated from the instantaneous continuous load regression equations generally were greater than those estimated from the daily mean load regression equations. Temporal trends in total nitrogen concentrations showed statistically significant (probability value less than or equal to 0.05) downward trends during both base-flow and runoff conditions at all five USGS streamgages except for the streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period, showing upward and downward trends throughout the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base-flow and runoff conditions showed statistically significant upward trends at USGS streamgages 07191160 Spavinaw Creek near Maysville, Ark., and 07191222 Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. Total phosphorus concentrations showed a statistically significant downward trend during base-flow conditions at USGS streamgage 071912213 Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and in both base-flow and runoff conditions at USGS streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in suspended-sediment concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period and were similar to temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations.

Arkansas, Oklahoma

The Farm Process Version 2 (FMP2) for MODFLOW-2005 - Modifications and Upgrades to FMP1

The ability to dynamically simulate the integrated supply-and-demand components of irrigated agricultural is needed to thoroughly understand the interrelation between surface water and groundwater flow in areas where the water-use by vegetation is an important component of the water budget. To meet this need, the computer program Farm Process (FMP1) was updated and refined for use with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW-2005 groundwater-flow model, and is referred to as MF2005-FMP2. The updated program allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water use. MF2005-FMP2 represents a complete hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for water consumption of irrigated agriculture, but also of urban use, and of natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply-constrained conditions. From large- to small-scale settings, the MF2005-FMP2 has the unique set of capabilities to simulate and analyze historical, present, and future conditions. MF2005-FMP2 facilitates the analysis of agricultural water use where little data is available for pumpage, land use, or agricultural information. The features presented in this new version of FMP2 along with the linkages to the Streamflow Routing (SFR), Multi-Node Well (MNW), and Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF) Packages prevents mass loss to an open system and helps to account for 'all of the water everywhere and all of the time'. The first version, FMP1 for MODFLOW-2000, is limited to (a) transpiration uptake from unsaturated root zones, (b) on-farm efficiency defined solely by farm and not by crop type, (c) a simulation of water use and returnflows related only to irrigated agriculture and not also to non-irrigated vegetation, (d) a definition of consumptive use as potential crop evapotranspiration, (e) percolation being instantly recharged to the uppermost active aquifer, (f) automatic routing of returnflow from runoff either to reaches of tributary stream segments adjacent to a farm or to one reach nearest to the farm's lowest elevation, (g) farm-well pumping from cell locations regardless of whether an irrigation requirement from these cells exists or not, and (h) specified non-routed water transfers from an undefined source outside the model domain. All of these limitations are overcome in MF2005-FMP2. The new features include (a) simulation of transpiration uptake from variably saturated, fully saturated, or ponded root zones (for example, for crops like rice or riparian vegetation), (b) definition of on-farm efficiency not only by farm but also by crop, (c) simulation of water use and returnflow from non-irrigated vegetation (for example, rain-fed agriculture or native vegetation), (d) use of crop coefficients and reference evapotranspiration, (e) simulation of the delay between percolation from farms through the unsaturated zone and recharge into the uppermost active aquifer by linking FMP2 to the UZF Package, (f) an option to manually control the routing of returnflow from farm runoff to streams, (g) an option to limit pumping to wells located only in cells where an irrigation requirement exists, and (h) simulation of water transfers to farms from a series of well fields (for example, recovery well field of an aquifer-storage-and-recovery system, ASR). In addition to the output of an economic budget for each farm between irrigation demand and supply ('Farm Demand and Supply Budget' in FMP1), a new output option called 'Farm Budget' was created for FMP2, which allows the user to track all physical flows into and out of a water accounting unit at all times. Such a unit can represent individual farms, farming districts, natural areas, or urban areas. The example model demonstrates the application of MF2005-FMP2 with delayed recharge through an unsaturated zone, rejected infiltration in a riparian area, changes in de

Techniques and Methods

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods

Statistical analysis of aquifer-test results for nine regional aquifers in Louisiana

This report, prepared as part of the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer-System Analysis project, presents a compilation, summarization, and statistical analysis of aquifer-test results for nine regional aquifers in Louisiana. These are from youngest to oldest: The alluvial, Pleistocene, Evangeline, Jasper, Catahoula, Cockfield, Sparta, Carrizo, and Wilcox aquifers. Approximately 1,500 aquifer tests in U.S. Geological Survey files in Louisiana were examined and 1,001 were input to a computer file. Analysis of the aquifer test results and plots that describe aquifer hydraulic characteristics were made for each regional aquifer. Results indicate that, on the average, permeability (hydraulic conductivity) generally tends to decrease from the youngest aquifers to the oldest. The most permeable aquifers in Louisiana are the alluvial and Pleistocene aquifers; whereas, the least permeable are the Carrizo and Wilcox aquifers. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Yazoo River, northwestern Mississippi, 1996-97

Increased nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from off-continent flux has been identified as contributing to the increase in the areal extent of the low dissolved-oxygen zone that develops annually off the coast of Louisiana and Texas. The proximity of the Yazoo River Basin in northwestern Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, and the intensive agriculture in the basin have lead to speculation that the Yazoo River Basin contributes a disproportionate amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Mississippi River and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico. Water samples from the Yazoo River were collected during 1996 and 1997 and were analyzed for total nitrogen, nitrate as nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus as part of the U.S. Geological Survey?s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These data were used to compute annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged from the Yazoo River for 1996 and 1997. Annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated by two methods. The first used multivariate regression and the second multiplied the mean annual concentration by the total annual flow. Load estimates based on the product of the mean annual concentration and the total annual flow were within the 95 percent confidence interval for the load calculated by multivariate regression in all cases. The Yazoo River loads, compared to long-term annual loads in the Mississippi River, indicated that the Yazoo River was contributing 2.3 percent or less of the total nitrogen load, 5.7 percent or less of the total phosphorus load, and 1 percent or less of the nitrate load in 1996 and 1997. The total nitrogen load from the Yazoo River Basin into the Mississippi River and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico was proportional to its discharge, the nitrate load was less than expected, whereas the total phosphorus load was slightly higher than expected based on discharge.

Mississippi

Computed roughness coefficients for Skunk Creek above Interstate 17, Maricopa County, Arizona

In the winter of 1997-98, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Flood Control District of Maricopa County, made six verification measurements for Manning's roughness coefficients at Skunk Creek above Interstate 17. Data from four floodflows were recorded and analyzed, three of these flows occurred in February 1998 when Arizona received precipitation from the El Nino weather phenomenon. Discharges ranged from 187 to 760 cubic feet per second and resultant verified values for Manning's roughness coefficient, n, ranged from 0.056 to 0.039. Skunk Creek above Interstate 17 - an ephemeral wash within a flood-control structure - is overgrown with desert brush throughout the main channel and the presence of the vegetation has a significant effect on n values throughout the reach. The results of this study are verified roughness coefficients that can be transferred to similarly vegetated channels in Maricopa County and other arid and semiarid environments where roughness factors must be assessed for flood management or other purposes.

Arizona

Estimating peak discharges of small, rural streams in Massachusetts

Floodflows on natural-flow streams in Massachusetts with drainage areas between 0.25 square miles and 260 square miles may be estimated from drainage area, main-channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the area of swamps, lakes, and ponds. Multiple-regression techniques were used to define the relationship between a suite of basin and climatic characteristics and flood peaks in three flood-frequency regions at a total of 95 sites. Station flood-frequency data were computed following guidelines in Bulletin 17A of the U.S. Water Resources Council. The frequency analyses are based upon weighted skew values, adjustments for high and low outliers, and historic peak data. Regression equations for estimation of peak discharges for 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 exceedance probabilities are provided for ungaged sites. An improved sample of flood peaks and gaging stations and the definition of three flood-frequency regions reduced the standard errors of estimate by about 5 percent over those for the 1977 relations. Included in this analysis were the synthetic flood-frequency data at 8 sites computed using historic climatic data and 10 parameters optimized by calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey's rainfall-runoff model with storm data observed over 11 years. The equations are applicable to streams unaffected by regulation where the usable manmade storage is less than 4.5 million cubic feet per square mile, or by diversions or urbanization. The equations are restricted to sites where the basin indices are within a specified range outside of eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, or Nantucket Counties. In these areas, the available data do not adequately define the influence of high infiltration and storage capacities of drainage basins on floodflows.

Water Supply Paper

The path to FAIR research models: Lessons learned

Numerical modeling of Earth surface processes emerged as an important scientific tool in the late 1960s to mid-1970s, driven by the development of finite element methods in computer science. These advancements, initially applied in civil engineering, enabled scientists to simulate complex geological phenomena. At that time, models were often only described in publications, access was limited to researchers with direct connections to the developers, and the code was rarely documented for reuse, limiting their application beyond the original research context. The FAIR principles (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) as applied to data began to take shape in the 21st century with the rise of open science, digital repositories, and standardized data sharing frameworks. In the late 2010s, grassroots movements began to apply some of the FAIRness goals to numerical models. Subsequently, more formalized FAIR model principles were developed that addressed the specific needs of the scientific modeling community, resulting in the formulation of the FAIR principles for research software (FAIR4RS). In this study, we examine the development and implementation of strategies by two geoscience research infrastructures – the CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) Model Repository and the U.S. Geological Survey Model Catalog – to enhance the FAIRness of models guided by FAIR4RS. Some of the development and implementation efforts described predate the formalization of FAIR and FAIR4RS principles, making this an ongoing and adaptive process. We evaluate the temporal progression towards increased FAIR4RS alignment across three phases of research infrastructure development: prototype, refinement, and growth and iteration. Although certain principles were more straightforward to implement early in prototypes of the catalog infrastructures, others required broader community collaboration during refinement, and some continue to pose practical challenges in the growth and iteration phase. By tracing these dynamics, our aim is to provide insights that can guide other modeling initiatives in effectively adopting FAIR4RS principles within their communities.

Geoscientific Model Development

Historical Channel Adjustment and Estimates of Selected Hydraulic Values in the Lower Sabine River and Lower Brazos River Basins, Texas and Louisiana

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated historical channel adjustment and estimated selected hydraulic values at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in the lower Sabine River Basin in Texas and Louisiana and lower Brazos River Basin in Texas to support geomorphic assessments of the Texas Instream Flow Program. Channel attributes including cross-section geometry, slope, and planform change were evaluated to learn how each river's morphology changed over the years in response to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Historical and contemporary cross-sectional channel geometries at several gaging stations on each river were compared, planform changes were assessed, and hydraulic values were estimated including mean flow velocity, bed shear stress, Froude numbers, and hydraulic depth. The primary sources of historical channel morphology information were U.S. Geological Survey hard-copy discharge-measurement field notes. Additional analyses were done using computations of selected flow hydraulics, comparisons of historical and contemporary aerial photographs, comparisons of historical and contemporary ground photographs, evaluations of how frequently stage-discharge rating curves were updated, reviews of stage-discharge relations for field measurements, and considerations of bridge and reservoir construction activities. Based on historical cross sections at three gaging stations downstream from Toledo Bend Reservoir, the lower Sabine River is relatively stable, but is subject to substantial temporary scour-and-fill processes during floods. Exceptions to this characterization of relative stability include an episode of channel aggradation at the Sabine River near Bon Wier, Texas, during the 1930s, and about 2 to 3 feet of channel incision at the Sabine River near Burkeville, Texas, since the late 1950s. The Brazos River, at gaging stations downstream from Waco, Texas, has adjusted to a combination of hydrologic, sedimentary, and anthropogenic controls. Since the 1960s, numerous point bars have vertically accreted and vegetation has encroached along the channel margins, which probably promotes channel-bed incision to compensate for a reduction in cross-sectional area. Channel incision was detected at all gaging stations along the Brazos River, and the depth of incision is greatest in the lowermost gaging stations, exemplified by about 5 feet of channel-bed incision between 1993 and 2004 at Richmond, Texas. One notable exception to this pattern of incision was a period of aggradation at U.S. Geological Survey gaging station 08096500 Brazos River at Waco, Texas, during the late 1920s and 1930s, probably associated with upstream dam construction. Lateral channel migration rates along the Brazos River determined from aerial photographs are greatest between Waco and Hempstead, Texas, with numerous bends moving an average of more than 10 feet per year. Migration rates at selected bends downstream from Hempstead were measured as less than 10 feet per year, on average. Two tributaries of the Brazos River, the Little and Navasota Rivers, also were investigated for historical channel adjustment. The Little River near Cameron, Texas (08106500) has incised its channel bed about 12 feet since 1949, and the lower Navasota River shows complex adjustment to bridge construction activities and a channel avulsion.

Scientific Investigations Report

Single-channel seismic-reflection profiles from Massachusetts coastal waters and the western part of Georges Bank

The U.S. Geological Survey collected approximately 1,200 km each of airgun and minisparker single-channel seismic-reflection profiles during the R/V FAY cruise 023 in September 1976. The purpose of the 6-day cruise was to study the shallow sedimentary structure south and east of southern Massachusetts and to obtain magnetic and gravity data in these areas and in the vicinity of Great South Channel and Cape Ann. The survey was conducted by the U.S. Geo­logical Survey as part of the Massachusetts Cooperative Marine Geologic Program. Seismic instruments used include a 1 Teledyne 600-joule minisparker system and a 20-in 3 airgun system. Navigational data during the cruise were obtained by the use of an Integrated Navigation System, which included the following sub­systems: Teledyne Loran-C for both range-range and hyperbofic positions; Magnovox s'atellite receiver; Sperry Mark-29 gyrocompass; and Hewlett-Packard 21 MX computer system with dual 9-track magnetic tape recording. The original records may be studied at the U.S. Geological Survey offices in Woods Hole, Mass. Copies of the records can be purchased only from the National Geophysical and Solar-Terrestrial Data Center, NOAA/EDIS/NGSDC, Code D621, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303- (303-497-6338).

Open-File Report

Geologic characterization of shelf areas using usSEABED for GIS mapping, modeling processes and assessing marine sand and gravel resources

Geologic maps depicting offshore sedimentary features serve many scientific and applied purposes. Such maps have been lacking, but recent computer technology and software offer promise in the capture and display of diverse marine data. Continental margins contain landforms which provide a variety of important functions and contain important sedimentary records. Some shelf areas also contain deposits regarded as potential aggregate resources. Because proper management of coastal and offshore areas is increasingly important, knowledge of the framework geology and marine processes is critical. Especially valuable are comprehensive and integrated digital databases based on high-quality information from original sources. Products of interest are GIS maps containing thematic information, such as sediment character and texture. These products are useful to scientists modeling nearshore and shelf processes as well as planners and managers. The U.S. Geological Survey is leading a national program to gather a variety of extant marine geologic data into the usSEABED database system. This provides centralized, integrated marine geologic data collected over the past 50 years. To date, over 340,000 sediment data points from the U.S. reside in usSEABED, which combines an array of physical data and analytical and descriptive information about the sea floor and are available to the marine community through three USGS data reports for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific published in 2006, and the project web sites: (http://woodshole.er.usg s.gov/project-pages/aggregates/ and http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/usseabed/)

Conference Paper

Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins through March 2009

Part of the mission of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources is to protect and preserve South Carolina's water resources. Doing so requires an ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina. A particular need is information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams, which is especially important for effectively managing the State's water resources during critical flow periods, such as during periods of severe drought like South Carolina has experienced in the last decade or so. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, initiated a study in 2008 to update low-flow statistics at continuous-record streamgaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in South Carolina. This report presents the low-flow statistics for 25 selected streamgaging stations in the Saluda, Congaree, and Edisto River basins in South Carolina, and includes flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-,75-, 90-, and 95-percent exceedances and the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day average flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamgaging station. The low-flow statistics were computed from records available through March 31, 2009. Of the 25 streamgaging stations for which recurrence interval computations were made, 20 were compared to low-flow statistics that were published in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports. A comparison of the low-flow statistics for the annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 10-year recurrence interval (7Q10) from this study with the most recently published values indicates that 18 of the 20 streamgaging stations have values lower than the previous published values. The low-flow statistics are influenced by length of record, hydrologic regime under which the record was collected, analytical techniques used, and other changes, such as urbanization, diversions, droughts, and so on, that may have occurred in the basin.

South Carolina

Two-dimensional hydraulic analyses of Joachim Creek, De Soto, Missouri

A two-dimensional hydraulic model; water-surface profiles; and digital maps of water-surface elevation, velocities, and water depths were developed for a 6.7-mile reach of Joachim Creek within and near the city of De Soto, Missouri. Water-surface profiles were generated for the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval) flows. Digital maps of water-surface elevation, water depth, and velocity were generated for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. Water-surface elevations and inundation extents of generated profiles and maps were substantially lower than similar products produced for the 2019 flood-insurance study that included the study reach. The differences in water-surface elevations can be attributed to differences in input streamflows and hydraulic simulation techniques. The water-surface elevations generated for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows were used to assess the vulnerability and inundation depths of 231 selected structures within the city of De Soto. Results indicate that 157 to 177 of the 231 structures were affected at the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flow, depending on the adjacent grade elevation used for reference. Between 185 and 198 structures were affected at the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flow, depending on grade elevation. Inundation depths at the affected structures were 0.02 to 9.28 feet (ft), depending on the flow and adjacent grade reference. Flood elevations were computed for Joachim Creek using a two-dimensional, finite-volume numerical modeling application for river hydraulics. The hydraulic model was calibrated using high-water marks from the April 18, 2013, flood and the maximum measured streamflow at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Joachim Creek at De Soto, Mo. (station 07019500), on September 8, 2018. The calibrated model was then used to compute the hydraulic conditions associated with the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. The simulated water-surface elevations and digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.60-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.97-ft horizontal resolution) were used to generate products including water-surface profiles and maps of inundated area, water depth, and velocities using model postprocessing software.

Missouri