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Phytoplankton community ecology: Principles applied in San Francisco Bay

In his seminal 1961 paper 'The paradox of the plankton' Am Nat 95:137-147, G. E. Hutchinson asked why many species of phytoplankton can coexist while competing for a small number of limiting resources in an unstructured habitat. Hutchinson anticipated the resolution of his paradox, recognizing that communities are organized by processes beyond resource competition including species interactions, habitat variability and dispersal. Since 1961 we have made fundamental discoveries that have revolutionized our conceptual understanding of pelagic ecology, including (1) habitat heterogeneity at all scales relevant to plankton population dynamics, (2) community shifts in response to global climate cycles, (3) fast and selective predation as a powerful top-down force to shape phytoplankton communities, (4) turbulent mixing as a physical process that selects species on the basis of their size and form, (5) mixotrophy that allows some algal species to tap organic nutrient pools and function at multiple trophic levels, (6) taxon-specific life cycles including alternating vegetative and resting stages, and (7) the pelagic as an open system where communities are continually reshaped by species immigration. Here we synthesize these discoveries to show how they validate and amplify Hutchinson's hypothesis that phytoplankton communities are assembled by many processes. Our synthesis is built around observations of phytoplankton species composition from a decade of study in San Francisco Bay, used as a case study to illustrate the contemporary principles of phytoplankton community ecology. We apply these principles to address 2 central questions: (1) What processes assemble phytoplankton communities? (2) How does phytoplankton community composition influence ecosystem functions such as production in pelagic and benthic food webs?

California

Using colony monitoring devices to evaluate the impacts of land use and nutritional value of forage on honey bee health

Colony monitoring devices used to track and assess the health status of honey bees are becoming more widely available and used by both beekeepers and researchers. These devices monitor parameters relevant to colony health at frequent intervals, often approximating real time. The fine-scale record of hive condition can be further related to static or dynamic features of the landscape, such as weather, climate, colony density, land use, pesticide use, vegetation class, and forage quality. In this study, we fit commercial honey bee colonies in two apiaries with pollen traps and digital scales to monitor floral resource use, pollen quality, and honey production. One apiary was situated in low-intensity agriculture; the other in high-intensity agriculture. Pollen traps were open for 72 h every two weeks while scales recorded weight every 15 min throughout the growing season. From collected pollen, we determined forage quantity per day, species identity using DNA sequencing, pesticide residues, amino acid content, and total protein content. From scales, we determined the accumulated hive weight change over the growing season, relating to honey production and final colony weight going into winter. Hive scales may also be used to identify the occurrence of environmental pollen and nectar dearth, and track phenological changes in plant communities. We provide comparisons of device-derived data between two apiaries over the growing season and discuss the potential for employing apiary monitoring devices to infer colony health in the context of divergent agricultural land use conditions.

Agriculture

Paleoecology of a Northern Michigan Lake and the relationship among climate, vegetation, and Great Lakes water levels

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum -dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (∼8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occurred contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga . Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate.

Quaternary Research

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts. Objectives The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow ( Ammodramus henslowii ), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability. Methods We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model. Results We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction. Conclusions Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Landscape Ecology

The Far-Field imprint of the late Paleozoic Ice Age, its demise, and the onset of a dust-house climate across the Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin, Texas

The late Paleozoic is a period of pronounced climatic and tectonic change, characterized by the onset and disappearance of continental-scale glaciers across polar Gondwana, the formation of Pangea, and widespread large igneous province volcanism. The low-latitude equatorial tropics are assumed to be places of persistent warm and wet climatic conditions throughout the Phanerozoic, which through intense silicate weathering, exert a major influence on Earth’s climate via the consumption of atmospheric carbon through carbonic hydrolytic weathering, formation of clay minerals and deliverability of alkalinity to ocean basins. Here we investigate the late Paleozoic sedimentary record of the Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin in order to refine the climatic and provenance record of this region. The Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin was situated within the equatorial tropics throughout the late Paleozoic and was connected to the open ocean through a network of fluvial systems that drained into the marine Midland Basin. We present new U-Pb zircon geochronology (19 samples, 2591 analyses) and sedimentary petrography (11 samples, 5800 grain counts), which we integrate with previously published paleobotany, paleosol chemistry and clay mineralogy to provide a holistic climate and tectonic record from this region. We observe major changes in sedimentary processes that we attribute to the formation of Pangea, eustatic changes linked to a dynamic high-latitude glaciation and teleconnections with low latitude hydrology, and a long-term shift in the Earth climate system all of which result in a dynamic sediment provenance history. Late Pennsylvanian and earliest Permian deposits are enriched in zircons with local affinity and interpreted to reflect local uplift and repeat incision across the basin margin, the latter a result of glacioeustatic forcing during an “everwet” climate. A major paleoenvironmental shift occurs in the late early Permian, which is reflected by the transition from fluvial to mixed fluvial-aeolian and ultimately aeolian dominant sedimentation by the late Permian. The transition from fluvial to aeolian dominant sedimentation is accompanied by a change in clay chemistry, sedimentary rock textual maturity, paleosol morphology and a threefold increase in Paleozoic zircons in the mid to late Permian strata. Widespread loess deposits across equatorial Pangea during the Permian have been used to argue for the possibility of equatorial glaciers situated in highland settings during the early Permian. Conversely, our data suggest initiation of a substantial component of aeolian deposition across the field areas, which is coincident with widespread ice loss across high latitude Gondwana, and ultimately highlights the teleconnections between high latitude glaciation and the low latitude hydrologic cycle.

Texas

Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts

Wind-waves have an important role in Earth system dynamics through air–sea interactions and are key drivers of coastal and offshore hydro-morphodynamics that affect communities, ecosystems, infrastructure and operations. In this Review, we outline historical and projected changes in the wind-wave climate over the world’s oceans, and their impacts. Historical trend analysis is challenging owing to the presence of temporal inhomogeneities from increased numbers and types of assimilated data. Nevertheless, there is general agreement over a consistent historical increase in mean wave height of 1–3 cm yr −1 in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, with extremes increasing by >10 cm yr −1 for the latter. By 2100, mean wave height is projected to rise by 5–10% in the Southern Ocean and eastern tropical South Pacific, and by >100% in the Arctic Ocean. By contrast, reductions in mean wave height up to 10% are expected in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with regional variability and uncertainty for changes in extremes. Differences between 1.5 °C and warmer worlds reveal the potential benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming. Resolving global-scale climate change impacts on coastal processes and atmospheric–ocean–wave interactions requires a step-up in observational and modeling capabilities, including enhanced spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of observations, more homogeneous data products, multidisciplinary model improvement, and better sampling of uncertainty with larger ensembles.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Characterizing mauka-to-makai connections for aquatic ecosystem conservation on Maui, Hawaiʻi

Mauka-to-makai (mountain to sea in the Hawaiian language) hydrologic connectivity – commonly referred to as ridge-to-reef – directly affects biogeochemical processes and socioecological functions across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems. The supply of freshwater to estuarine and nearshore environments in a ridge-to-reef system supports the food, water, and habitats utilized by marine fauna . In addition, the ecosystem services derived from this land-to-sea connectivity support social and cultural practices (hereafter referred to as socio-cultural) including fishing, aquaculture, wetland agriculture, religious ceremonies, and recreational activities. To effectively guide island resource management, a better understanding of the linkages from ridge-to-reef across natural and social usages is critical, particularly in the context of climate change, with anticipated increasing temperature and shifting precipitation patterns. The objective of this study was to identify spatial linkages that promote multiple and diverse uses, following the ridge-to-reef concept, at an island-wide scale to identify regions of high conservation importance for aquatic resources. We selected the Island of Maui as a study representative of many Pacific islands. Diverse datasets, including agricultural lands within watersheds, wetland locations, presence of stream species, indicators of freshwater input from streams, coral cover, nearshore fish biomass, socio-cultural data such as fishpond locations, wetland taro cultivation, beach recreation use, and lastly the dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) future climate projections scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 & 8.5) were used to examine the spatial linkages through hydrological connectivity from land to the sea. Zonation spatial planning software was used to prioritize areas of high management and conservation value and to help inform aquatic resources management. The resulting prioritized areas included many minimally disturbed watersheds in east Maui and western nearshore and coastal zones that are adjacent to diverse coral reefs. These results are driven by the importance of fish biomass and coral reef distribution as well as traditional wetland taro cultivation and coastal access points for recreation. These results underline the importance of examining ridge-to-reef systems for aquatic resource management and including important social and cultural values in resource management upon planning adaptation strategies for climate change. Improving our understanding of diverse natural and socio-cultural influences on habitat conditions and their values in these areas provides an opportunity to strategically plan future management and conservation actions.

Hawaii

Ocean warming and acidification have complex interactive effects on the dynamics of a marine fungal disease

Diseases threaten the structure and function of marine ecosystems and are contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. We currently lack an understanding of how climate change stressors, such as ocean acidification (OA) and warming, may simultaneously affect coral reef disease dynamics, particularly diseases threatening key reef-building organisms, for example crustose coralline algae (CCA). Here, we use coralline fungal disease (CFD), a previously described CCA disease from the Pacific, to examine these simultaneous effects using both field observations and experimental manipulations. We identify the associated fungus as belonging to the subphylum Ustilaginomycetes and show linear lesion expansion rates on individual hosts can reach 6.5 mm per day. Further, we demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, that ocean-warming events could increase the frequency of CFD outbreaks on coral reefs, but that OA-induced lowering of pH may ameliorate outbreaks by slowing lesion expansion rates on individual hosts. Lowered pH may still reduce overall host survivorship, however, by reducing calcification and facilitating fungal bio-erosion. Such complex, interactive effects between simultaneous extrinsic environmental stressors on disease dynamics are important to consider if we are to accurately predict the response of coral reef communities to future climate change.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Adaptive data-driven models for estimating carbon fluxes in the Northern Great Plains

Rangeland carbon fluxes are highly variable in both space and time. Given the expansive areas of rangelands, how rangelands respond to climatic variation, management, and soil potential is important to understanding carbon dynamics. Rangeland carbon fluxes associated with Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were measured from multiple year data sets at five flux tower locations in the Northern Great Plains. These flux tower measurements were combined with 1-km2 spatial data sets of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, seasonal NDVI metrics, and soil characteristics. Flux tower measurements were used to train and select variables for a rule-based piece-wise regression model. The accuracy and stability of the model were assessed through random cross-validation and cross-validation by site and year. Estimates of NEE were produced for each 10-day period during each growing season from 1998 to 2001. Growing season carbon flux estimates were combined with winter flux estimates to derive and map annual estimates of NEE. The rule-based piece-wise regression model is a dynamic, adaptive model that captures the relationships of the spatial data to NEE as conditions evolve throughout the growing season. The carbon dynamics in the Northern Great Plains proved to be in near equilibrium, serving as a small carbon sink in 1999 and as a small carbon source in 1998, 2000, and 2001. Patterns of carbon sinks and sources are very complex, with the carbon dynamics tilting toward sources in the drier west and toward sinks in the east and near the mountains in the extreme west. Significant local variability exists, which initial investigations suggest are likely related to local climate variability, soil properties, and management.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Polish Journal of Ecology

Modeled interactions of mountain pine beetle and wildland fire under future climate and management scenarios for three western US landscapes

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) is a native disturbance agent across most pine forests in the western US. Climate changes will directly and indirectly impact frequencies and severities of MPB outbreaks, which can then alter fuel characteristics and wildland fire dynamics via changes in stand structure and composition. To investigate the importance of MPB to past and future landscape dynamics, we used the mechanistic, spatially explicit ecosystem process model FireBGCv2 to quantify interactions among climate, MPB, wildfire, fire suppression, and fuel management under historical and projected future climates for three western US landscapes. We compared simulated FireBGCv2 output from three MPB modules (none, simple empirical, and complex mechanistic) using three focus variables and six exploratory variables to evaluate the importance of MPB to landscape dynamics.

Fire Ecology

Climate and landform interact to control the source and transport of nitrate in Pacific Northwest rivers

The hydrological effects of climate change are documented in many regions; however, climate-driven impacts to the source and transport of river nutrients remain poorly understood. Understanding the factors controlling nutrient dynamics across river systems is critical to preserve ecosystem function yet challenging given the complexity of landscape and climate interactions. Here, we harness a large regional dataset of nitrate (NO 3 – ) yield, concentration, and isotopic composition (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) to evaluate the strength of hydroclimate and landscape variables in controlling the seasonal source and transport of NO 3 – . We show that hydroclimate strongly influenced the seasonality of river NO 3 – , producing distinct, source-dependent NO 3 – regimes across rivers from two mountain ranges. Riverine responses to hydroclimate were also constrained by watershed-scale topographic features, demonstrating that while regional climate strongly influences the timing of river NO 3 – transport, watershed topography plays a distinct role in mediating the sensitivity of river NO 3 – dynamics to future change.

Washington

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO 2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Polish Journal of Ecology

Stream metabolism increases with drainage area and peaks asynchronously across a stream network

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of stream metabolism across stream networks is key to understanding carbon cycling and stream food web ecology. To better understand intra-annual temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and their variability across space, we continuously measured dissolved oxygen and modeled stream metabolism for an entire year at ten sites across a temperate river network in Washington State, USA. We expected GPP and ER to increase with stream size and peak during summer and autumn months due to warmer temperatures and higher light availability. We found that GPP and ER increased with drainage area and that only four sites adhered to our expectations of summer peaks in GPP and autumn peaks in ER while the rest either peaked in winter, spring or remained relatively constant. Our results suggest the spatial arrangement and temporal patterns of discharge, temperature, light and nutrients within watersheds may result in asynchronies in GPP and ER, despite similar regional climatic conditions. These findings shed light on how temporal dynamics of stream metabolism can shift across a river network, which likely influence the dynamics of carbon cycling and stream food webs at larger scales.

Washington

Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western North America, for example, has substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as variability due to anthropogenic disturbance, invasive species, climate change, and altered fire regimes, which collectively make modelling dynamic ecosystem processes difficult. Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) is a robust ecosystem dynamic model, initially developed for tropical forests, that simulates energy, water, and carbon fluxes at fine scales. Although EDv2.2 has since been tested on different ecosystems via development of different Plant Function Types (PFT), it still lacks a shrub PFT. In this study, we developed and parameterized a shrub PFT representative of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in order to initialize and test it within EDv2.2, and to promote future broad-scale analysis of restoration activities, climate change, and fire regimes in the sagebrush-steppe. Specifically, we parameterized the sagebrush PFT within EDv2.2 to estimate gross primary production (GPP), using data from two sagebrush study sites in the northern Great Basin. To accomplish this, we employed a three-tier approach: 1) To initially parameterize the sagebrush PFT, we fitted allometric relationships for sagebrush using field-collected data, information from existing sagebrush literature, and parameters from other land models. 2) To determine influential parameters in GPP prediction, we used a sensitivity analysis to identify the five most sensitive parameters. 3) To improve model performance and validate results, we optimized these five parameters using an exhaustive search method to estimate GPP, and compared results with observations from two Eddy Covariance (EC) sites in the study area. Our modeled results were encouraging, with reasonable fidelity to observed values, although some negative biases (i.e., seasonal underestimates of GPP) were apparent.

Great Basin

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments

How species will respond to ongoing climate and other change is of increasing concern. Most attention is given to how species move or are moved, but many species stay. Understanding the dynamics of new species combinations is essential for successful conservation in a changing climate. Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Aspect control of water movement on hillslopes near the rain–snow transition of the Colorado Front Range

In the Colorado Front Range, forested catchments near the rain–snow transition are likely to experience changes in snowmelt delivery and subsurface water transport with climate warming and associated shifts in precipitation patterns. Snowpack dynamics are strongly affected by aspect: Lodgepole pine forested north‐facing slopes develop a seasonal snowpack, whereas Ponderosa pine‐dotted south‐facing slopes experience intermittent snow accumulation throughout winter and spring. We tested the degree to which these contrasting water input patterns cause different near‐surface hydrologic response on north‐facing and south‐facing hillslopes during the snowmelt period. During spring snowmelt, we applied lithium bromide (LiBr) tracer to instrumented plots along a north–south catchment transect. Bromide broke through immediately at 10‐ and 30‐cm depths on the north‐facing slope and was transported out of soil waters within 40 days. On the south‐facing slope, Br − was transported to significant depths only during spring storms and remained above the detection limit throughout the study. Modelling of unsaturated zone hydrologic response using Hydrus‐1D corroborated these aspect‐driven differences in subsurface transport. Our multiple lines of evidence suggest that north‐facing slopes are dominated by connected flow through the soil matrix, whereas south‐facing slope soils experience brief periods of rapid vertical transport following snowmelt events and are drier overall than north‐facing slopes. These differences in hydrologic response were largely a function of energy‐driven differences in water supply, emphasizing the importance of aspect and climate forcing when considering contributions of water and solutes to streamflow in catchments near the snow line.

Colorado