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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2023

Mountain glaciers influence biogeochemical and ecological characteristics of high-elevation lakes across the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Mountain glaciers are retreating rapidly due to climate change, leading to the formation of downstream lakes. However, little is known about the physical and biogeochemical conditions in these lakes across a range of glacial influence. We surveyed alpine lakes fed by both glacial and snowpack meltwaters and those fed by snowpack alone to compare nutrient concentrations, stoichiometry, water clarity, chlorophyll, and zooplankton communities. Total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus were two times higher in glacial lakes than in non-glacial lakes, while nitrate concentrations were three times higher. However, organic carbon concentrations in glacial lakes were two times lower than in non-glacial lakes. The carbon-to-phosphorus ratio and the nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio of lake seston increased with water clarity in glacial lakes, suggesting that turbidity from glacial flour increases light limitation and increases stoichiometric food quality for zooplankton in newly formed lakes. However, chlorophyll a concentrations did not differ between lake types. Through structural equation modeling, we found that glaciers exhibit a bidirectional association with nitrate and TP concentrations, perhaps mediated through landscape vegetation and lake clarity. Zooplankton communities in high-turbidity glacial lakes were largely composed of cyclopoid copepods and rotifers (i.e., non-filter feeders), while non-glacial lakes tended to be dominated by calanoid copepods and cladocerans (i.e., filter feeders). Our results show that glacier-influenced lakes have biogeochemical and ecological characteristics distinct from snow-fed mountain lakes. Sustained studies are needed to assess the dynamics of these unique features as the influence of the alpine cryosphere fades under ongoing climate change.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2023

Evidence for density-dependent effects on body composition of a large omnivore in a changing Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Understanding the density-dependent processes that drive population demography in a changing world is critical in ecology, yet measuring performance–density relationships in long-lived mammalian species demands long-term data, limiting scientists' ability to observe such mechanisms. We tested performance–density relationships for an opportunistic omnivore, grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos , Linnaeus, 1758) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with estimates of body composition (lean body mass and percent body fat) serving as indicators of individual performance over two decades (2000–2020) during which time pronounced environmental changes have occurred. Several high-calorie foods for grizzly bears have mostly declined in recent decades (e.g., whitebark pine [ Pinus albicaulis , Engelm, 1863]), while increasing human impacts from recreation, development, and long-term shifts in temperatures and precipitation are altering the ecosystem. We hypothesized that individual lean body mass declines as population density increases (H1), and that this effect would be more pronounced among growing individuals (H2). We also hypothesized that omnivory helps grizzly bears buffer energy intake from changing foods, with body fat levels being independent from population density and environmental changes (H3). Our analyses showed that individual lean body mass was negatively related to population density, particularly among growing-age females, supporting H1 and partially H2. In contrast, population density or sex had little effect on body fat levels and rate of accumulation, indicating that sufficient food resources were available on the landscape to accommodate successful use of shifting food sources, supporting H3. Our results offer important insights into ecological feedback mechanisms driving individual performances within a population undergoing demographic and ecosystem-level changes. However, synergistic effects of continued climate change and increased human impacts could lead to more extreme changes in food availability and affect observed population resilience mechanisms. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term studies in protected areas when investigating complex ecological relationships in an increasingly anthropogenic world.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Resist, accept, and direct responses to biological invasions: A social–ecological perspective

Biological invasions represent an important and unique case of ecological transformation that can strongly influence species and entire ecosystems. Challenges in managing invasions arise on multiple fronts, ranging from diverse and often divergent values associated with native and introduced species, logistical constraints, and transformation via other change agents (e.g., climate and land-use change). We address biological invasions considering the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework for addressing ecological transformation. Because RAD is focused on decisions, we address both social and ecological factors that influence preferences for decision alternatives. We address social factors first as these can constrain the range of alternatives considered in an ecological context. Next, we address ecological dynamics by modeling trajectories from RAD alternatives in a two-species scenario involving impacts of introduced brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) on native bull trout ( S. confluentus ). Results reveal that decision alternatives aligned with each of the major components of RAD can produce positive outcomes. In a management context, these findings highlight the value of investing in early engagement to fully identify decision alternatives, formalizing models of system dynamics to understand ecological trajectories, and applying this knowledge to set the stage for longer term efforts to address biological invasions.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗
USGS2018

Integrating physiological stress into the movement ecology of migratory ungulates: A spatial analysis with mule deer

Rapid climate and human land-use change may limit the ability of long-distance migratory herbivores to optimally track or “surf” high-quality forage during spring green-up. Understanding how anthropogenic and environmental stressors influence migratory movements is of critical importance because of their potential to cause a mismatch between the timing of animal movements and the emergence of high-quality forage. We measured stress hormones (fecal glucocorticoid metabolites; FGMs) to test hypotheses about the effects of high-quality forage tracking, human land use, and use of stopover sites on the physiological state of individuals along a migratory route. We collected and analyzed FGM concentrations from 399 mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) samples obtained along a 241 km migratory route in western Wyoming, USA, during spring 2015 and 2016. In support of a fitness benefit hypothesis, individuals occupying areas closer to peak forage quality had decreased FGM levels. Specifically, for every 10-day interval closer to peak forage quality, we observed a 7% decrease in FGMs. Additionally, we observed support for both an additive anthropogenic stress hypothesis and a hypothesis that stopovers act as physiological refugia, wherein individuals sampled far from stopover sites exhibited 341% higher FGM levels if in areas of low landscape integrity compared to areas of high landscape integrity. Overall, our findings indicate that the physiological state of mule deer during migration is influenced by both anthropogenic disturbances and their ability to track high-quality forage. The availability of stopovers, however, modulates physiological responses to those stressors. Thus, our results support a recent call for the prioritization of stopover locations and connectivity between those locations in conservation planning for migratory large herbivores.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?

More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km 2 ). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis ; black-footed albatross, P . nigripes ; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca ). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2026

Wicked problems in practice: Responding to ecological transformation in wilderness

Congressionally designated wilderness offers the highest level of land protection in the USA, comparable to category 1b wilderness as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, yet wilderness areas face impacts of climate change. Researchers and managers increasingly recognize the immense challenge of stewarding wilderness in a changing climate. Although responding to climate change is considered a wicked problem, this framing has not been applied to wilderness contexts. We move theory into practice by using wicked problem framing and four illustrative cases to explore how the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework can help untangle the wicked problem of addressing unprecedented ecological transformation in wilderness. The RAD framework clarifies a range of response options including resisting transformation, accepting it, or directing it toward preferred new conditions. As climate change continues to challenge wilderness managers, the RAD framework can help assess trade-offs and preserve wilderness character into the twenty-first century.

Ambio↗
USGS2021

Evaluating the impact of watershed development and climate change on stream ecosystems: A Bayesian network modeling approach

A continuous-variable Bayesian network (cBN) model is used to link watershed development and climate change to stream ecosystem indicators. A graphical model, reflecting our understanding of the connections between climate change, weather condition, loss of natural land cover, stream flow characteristics , and stream ecosystem indicators is used as the basis for selecting flow metrics for predicting macroinvertebrate-based indicators. Selected flow metrics were then linked to variables representing watershed development and climate change. We fit the model to data from two river basins in southeast US and the resulting model was used to simulate future stream ecological conditions using projected future climate and development scenarios. The three climate models predicted varying ecological condition trajectories, but similar worst-case ecological conditions. The established modeling approach couples mechanistic understanding with field data to develop predictions of management-relevant variables across a heterogeneous landscape. We discussed the transferability of the modeling approach.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2014

Land-margin ecosystem hydrologic data for the coastal Everglades, Florida, water years 1996-2012

Mangrove forests and salt marshes dominate the landscape of the coastal Everglades (Odum and McIvor, 1990). However, the ecological effects from potential sea-level rise and increased water flows from planned freshwater Everglades restoration on these coastal systems are poorly understood. The National Park Service (NPS) proposed the South Florida Global Climate Change Project (SOFL-GCC) in 1990 to evaluate climate change and the effect from rising sea levels on the coastal Everglades, particularly at the marsh/mangrove interface or ecotone (Soukup and others, 1990). A primary objective of SOFL-GCC project was to monitor and synthesize the hydrodynamics of the coastal Everglades from the upstream freshwater marsh to the downstream estuary mangrove. Two related hypotheses were set forward (Nuttle and Cosby, 1993): 1. There exists hydrologic conditions (tide, local rainfall, and upstream water deliveries), which characterize the location of the marsh/mangrove ecotone along the marine and terrestrial hydrologic gradient; and 2. The marsh/mangrove ecotone is sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and freshwater inflow from inland areas. Hydrologic monitoring of the SOFL-GCC network began in 1995 after startup delays from Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) and organizational transfers from the NPS to the National Biological Survey (October 1993) and the merger with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Research Division in 1996 (Smith, 2004). As the SOFL-GCC project progressed, concern by environmental scientists and land managers over how the diversion of water from Everglades National Park would affect the restoration of the greater Everglades ecosystem. Everglades restoration scenarios were based on hydrodynamic models, none of which included the coastal zone (Fennema and others, 1994). Modeling efforts were expanded to include the Everglades coastal zone (Schaffranek and others, 2001) with SOFL-GCC hydrologic data assisting the ecological modeling needs. In 2002, as a response for a more interdisciplinary science approach to understanding the coastal Everglades ecological system, the SOFL-GCC hydrology project was integrated into the “Dynamics of Land-Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment, and Climate” study (Smith and others, 2002). Data from the ongoing study has been useful in providing an empirical hydrologic baseline for the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration science and management needs. The hydrology network consisted of 13 hydrologic gaging stations installed in the southwestern coastal region of Everglades National Park along three transects: Shark River (Shark or SH) transect, Lostmans River (Lostmans or LO) transect, and Chatham River (Chatham or CH) transect (fig. 1). There were five paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Shark transect (SH1, SH2, SH3, SH4, and SH5) and one stage gaging station (BSC) in the Big Sable Creek; four paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Lostmans transect (LO1, LO2, LO3, and LO4); and three paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Chatham transect (CH1, CH2, and CH3). Both surface-water and groundwater levels, salinities, and temperatures were monitored at the paired gaging stations. Rainfall was recorded at marsh and open canopy gaging stations. This report details the study introduction, method, and description of data collected, which are accessible through the final instantaneous hydrologic dataset stored in the USGS South Florida Information Access (SOFIA) South Florida Hydrology Database website, http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/sfl_hydro_data/location.html#brdlandmargin .

Florida↗
USGS2017

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multi-decade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish, across the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11 ° C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially non-hybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Reduced freshwater mussel juvenile production as a result of agricultural and urban contaminant mixture exposures

Freshwater mussels provide invaluable ecological services but are threatened by habitat alteration, poor water quality, invasive species, climate change, and contaminants, including contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Contaminants of emerging concerns are well documented in aquatic environments, including the Great Lakes Basin, but limited information is available on how environmentally relevant mixtures affect freshwater mussel biology throughout their varied life stages. Our main goal was to assess mussels' reproductive output in response to exposure to agricultural and urban CEC mixtures during glochidial development through juvenile transformation and excystment focusing on how exposure duration and treatment affect: (1) the number of glochidia prematurely released by brooding females, (2) glochidial transformation through host-fish excystment, and (3) the number of fully metamorphosed juveniles able to continue the lifecycle. Mussels and host fish were exposed to either a control water (CW), control ethanol (CE), agriculture CEC mixture (AM), or urban CEC mixture (UM) for 40 and 100 days. We found no effect from treatment or exposure duration on the number of glochidia prematurely released. Fewer partially and fully metamorphosed AM juveniles were observed during the 100-day exposure, compared with the 40-day. During the 40-day exposure, CW produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with CE and UM, but during the 100-day exposure AM produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with the CW. There was reduction in fully metamorphosed juveniles compared with partially metamorphosed for CE and UM during the 40-day exposure, as well as in the CW during the 100-day exposure. These results will be important for understanding how mussel populations are affected by CEC exposure. The experiments also yielded many insights for laboratory toxicology exposure studies.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2021

Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

The recent intensification of floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia has had profound cultural, ecological, and economic impacts that are expected to be exacerbated further by anthropogenic climate change. In part due to short instrumental runoff records, the long-term stationarity of hydroclimatic extremes in this major North American watershed remains poorly understood, highlighting the need to use high-resolution paleoenvironmental proxies to inform on past streamflow. Here we use a network of tree-ring proxy records to develop 11 subbasin-scale, complementary flood- and drought-season reconstructions, the first of their kind. The reconstructions explicitly target management-relevant flood and drought seasons within each basin, and are examined in tandem to provide an expanded assessment of extreme events across the FRB with immediate implications for water management. We find that past high flood-season flows have been of greater magnitude and occurred in more consecutive years than during the observational record alone. Early 20th century low flows in the drought season were especially severe in both duration and magnitude in some subbasins relative to recent dry periods. Our Fraser subbasin-scale reconstructions provide long-term benchmarks for the natural flood and drought variability prior to anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions demonstrate that the instrumental streamflow records upon which current management is based likely underestimate the full natural magnitude, duration, and frequency of extreme seasonal flows in the FRB, as well as the potential severity of future anthropogenically forced events.

British Columbia↗
USGS2016

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California↗
USGS2021

Translational invasion ecology: Bridging research and practice to address one of the greatest threats to biodiversity

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers collaborate to develop and implement ecological research via joint consideration of the ecological, sociological, economic, and/or political contexts in order to improve invasive species management. TIE ideally results in improved outcomes as well as shared benefits between researchers and managers. We delineate the steps of our proposed TIE approach and describe successful examples of ongoing TIE projects from the US and internationally. We suggest practical ways to begin incorporating TIE into research and management practices, including supporting boundary-spanning organizations and activities, expanding networks, sharing translational experiences, and measuring outcomes. We find that there is a need for strengthened boundary spanning, as well as funding and recognition for advancing translational approaches. As climate change and globalization exacerbate invasive species impacts, TIE provides a promising approach to generate actionable ecological research while improving outcomes of invasive species management and policy decisions.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change

Purpose of Review We examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade planned connections, potentially reducing their effectiveness. We synthesize advances in connectivity design approaches, identify challenges confronted by researchers and practitioners, and offer suggestions for future research. Recent Findings Recent studies incorporated future CC into connectivity design more often than LUC and rarely considered the two drivers jointly. When considering CC, most studies have focused on relatively broad spatial and temporal extents and have included either species-based targets or coarse-filter targets like geodiversity and climate gradients. High levels of uncertainty about future LUC and lack of consistent, readily available model simulations are likely hindering its inclusion in connectivity modeling. This high degree of uncertainty extends to efforts to jointly consider future CC and LUC. Summary We argue that successful promotion of connectivity as a means to adapt to CC and LUC will depend on (1) the velocity of CC, (2) the velocity of LUC, and (3) the degree of existing landscape fragmentation. We present a new conceptual framework to assist in identifying connectivity networks given these three factors. Given the high uncertainty associated with future CC and LUC, incorporating insights from decision science into connectivity planning will facilitate the development of more robust adaptation strategies.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗