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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico

Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models of 21 bird and frog species based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas in Puerto Rico. Species detection/non-detection data were acquired across ~ 700 sampling sites. We developed always-suitable maps that characterized suitable habitats in all three time periods for each species and overlaid these maps to identify regions with high species co-occurrence. These distributions were then compared with the distribution of existing protected areas. We show that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird and frog distributions. A large portion of always-suitable areas (ASA) is outside of protected areas (> 80%), and the percent of protected areas that overlaps with always-suitable areas is larger for bird (75%) than frog (39%) species. Our results indicate that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird and frog species under climate change; however, the establishment of larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between protected areas may allow species to find suitable niches to withstand environmental changes.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2015

Climate change in the Northeast and Midwest United States

The climate is changing rapidly in ways that have already impacted wildlife and their habitats. Here, we present a summary of the observed past and projected future climate changes in the region that are relevant to wildlife and ecosystems, as well as what we know and don’t know in order to raise managers’ confidence in their planning. A number of large-scale regional changes affect the overall terrestrial landscape within the Northeast and Midwest United States: Warming is occurring in every season, particularly in winter, at higher latitudes, at higher elevations, and inland (i.e. away from the ocean and lake coasts). Heatwaves may become more frequent, more intense, and last longer. Precipitation amounts are increasing, particularly in winter and with respect to highintensity events in summer. Snow is shifting to rain, leading to reduced snowpacks and extent of snow cover, as well as harder, crustier snowpacks. Atmospheric moisture content is likely to increase. Wind speeds are declining, though wind gusts may be intensifying. Streamflows are intensifying. Streams are warming. Thunderstorms may become more severe. Floods are intensifying, yet droughts are also on the rise as dry periods between events get longer. Blizzards and ice storms are occurring more often in some areas, though most areas experiencing milder winters (i.e., warmer and with less snow). Growing seasons are getting longer, with more growing degree days accumulating earlier in the season. In addition, localized climate change is occurring in specific regions: U.S. Atlantic coast Sea level is rising at an accelerating rate. Tropical cyclones and hurricanes may be intensifying and storm tracks have been shifting northward along the coast. Oceans are warming and becoming more acidic. Great Lakes The lakes are warming. Winter maximum lake ice extent is shrinking. Lake evaporation rates are increasing. Lake-effect snow events are becoming more severe, longer lasting, and shifting to rain, but occurring less often. Water levels have decreased, but may not be linked to anthropogenic climate change. Appalachians Warming may be occurring more rapidly at higher elevations. Greater intensification of heavy rainfall events may be occurring. In the short term (i.e., over the next 5-20 years), the direction and magnitude of warming in the global climate are mostly consistent across all emissions scenarios and with strong agreement across models. Accordingly, we are certain that the Northeast and Midwest will see longer growing seasons. We are likely to see shifts from snow to rain, though shifts in the amount of total precipitation (rain and snow) are less certain. Severe weather events (e.g., thunderstorms, tornadoes) are challenging to detect. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration trends are neither robustly observed nor consistent amongst modeling studies.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗
USGS2020

Geomorphic and sedimentary effects of modern climate change: Current and anticipated future conditions in the western United States

Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long‐lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment‐routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate‐driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western U.S. We find evidence for recent climate‐driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to non‐climatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2014

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

British Columbia;Washington↗
USGS2019

Optimizing historical preservation under climate change—An overview of the optimal preservation model and pilot testing at Cape Lookout National Seashore

Adapting cultural resources to climate-change effects challenges traditional cultural resource decision making because some adaptation strategies can negatively affect the integrity of cultural resources. Yet, the inevitability of climate-change effects—even given the uncertain timing of those effects—necessitates that managers begin prioritizing resources for climate-change adaptation. Prioritization imposes an additional management challenge: managers must make difficult tradeoffs to achieve desired management outcomes related to maximizing the resource values. This report provides an overview of a pilot effort to integrate vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), significance, and use potential metrics in a decision framework—the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model—to inform climate adaptation planning of a subset of buildings in historic districts (listed on the National Register of Historic Places) at Cape Lookout National Seashore. The OptiPres Model uses a numerical optimization algorithm to assess the timing and application of a portfolio of adaptation actions that could most effectively preserve an assortment of buildings associated with different histories, intended uses, and construction design and materials over a 30-year planning horizon. The outputs from the different budget scenarios, though not prescriptive, provide visualizations of and insights to the sequence and type of optimal actions and the changes to individual building resource values and accumulated resource values. Study findings suggest the OptiPres Model has planning utility related to fiscal efficiency by identifying a budget threshold necessary to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historical buildings while reducing vulnerability (collectively, the accumulated resource value). Specifically, findings identify that a minimum of the industry standard ($222,000 annually for the 17 buildings) is needed to maintain the current accumulated resource value. Additionally, results suggest that additional appropriations provided on regular intervals when annual appropriations are at the industry standard are nearly as efficient as annual appropriations at twice the rate of industry standards and increase the amount of accumulated resource values to nearly the same level. However, periodic increases in funding may increase the risks posed to buildings from the probability of a natural hazard (that is, damage or loss from a hurricane). Suggestions for model refinements include developing standardized cost estimations for adaptation actions based on square footage and building materials, developing metrics to quantify the historical integrity of buildings, integrating social values data, including additional objectives (such as public safety) in the model, refining vulnerability data and transforming the data to include risk assessment, and incorporating stochastic events (that is, hurricane and wind effects) into the model.

North Carolina↗
USGS2011

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Southern Appalachian Mountains↗
USGS2023

Potential effects of climate change on Acipenser fulvescens (lake sturgeon)

Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon) are the only sturgeon species native to the Great Lakes region and are threatened across most of their range. They are historically vulnerable because of overfishing and habitat fragmentation with the potential for climate change acting as an increasing stressor in the future. Lake sturgeon span multiple habitats during their long lifespans, including high gradient streams, nearshore areas, and deep rivers and lakes. Climate change is projected to strongly affect the suitability of these habitats through increasing precipitation and temperatures and decreasing ice cover and snowmelt. Changes in flow timing and amount can affect movement to spawning and nursery sites, and increased water temperatures are likely to affect species activity patterns, survival, and prey availability. Ultimately, the Great Lakes region is expected to face wide ranging effects from climate change, which may have positive and negative effects on lake sturgeon depending on a variety of factors, including the life stages affected, habitat availability, and interactions with other stressors, but all shifts are likely to affect spawning. Importantly, several areas of further research would be beneficial to understanding the complex effects of climate change on lake sturgeon.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2026

Predicted range shifts of non‐native grasses in response to climate change are influenced by photosynthetic pathway: A case study in the Hawaiian Islands

Aim Grasses comprise three main photosynthetic pathway variants (C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 -PACMAD hereafter referred to as C 4 ). We sought to confirm climate niche differences among these photosynthetic pathway variants and assessed whether predicted non-native grass range shift patterns with climate change differ among photosynthetic pathway variants. Location Hawaiian Islands. Methods We used a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach that uses global occurrence records to inform local SDM based on local (Hawaiian Islands) occurrences. We compared climate niches and projected climate-driven range shifts, assuming moderate climate change (RCP 4.5, end of century), among 22 non-native grasses representing C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 photosynthetic pathway variants. Results C 4 grasses exhibited the warmest temperature niches on average, but did not differ substantially in rainfall niche versus C 3 -BOP grasses. C 3 -PACMAD species averaged high suitability across a broad range of temperatures and rainfall conditions, except extreme aridity. In response to projected climate change, C 4 grasses had projected range increases. C 3 -BOP grasses typically responded with net range decreases, while C 3 -PACMAD grasses had variable range responses. However, patterns were contingent on elevation: for instance, the projected expansion of C 4 grasses was generally limited to elevations below 2000 m, with the largest increases in areas up to ~750 m. Areas of greatest reduction for C 3 -BOP and C 3 -PACMAD were projected at 750–1900 m and 100–1100 m elevation, respectively. Above 2000 m, range increases were projected for both C 3 grass variants. Main Conclusions Our projections suggest that non-native C 4 grasses pose the greatest risk for increasing spread and impacts under RCP 4.5, while certain C 3 -PACMAD grasses may endanger valuable high-elevation habitats. Photosynthetic pathway may be a useful component of weed risk assessment to evaluate how species may respond to climate change as similar range response patterns may be expected for other non-native grasses in other tropical and subtropical regions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2013

Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject‐matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate‐change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2016

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km). Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Great Lakes Region↗
USGS2021

Identifying climate-resistant vernal pools: Hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate change

Vernal pools of the northeastern United States provide important breeding habitat for amphibians but may be sensitive to droughts and climate change. These seasonal wetlands typically fill by early spring and dry by mid-to-late summer. Because climate change may produce earlier and stronger growing-season evapotranspiration combined with increasing droughts and shifts in precipitation timing, management concerns include the possibility that some pools will increasingly become dry earlier in the year, potentially interfering with amphibian life-cycle completion. In this context, a subset of pools that continue to provide wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions might function as ecohydrologic refugia, potentially supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. We used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 449 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. Models were then used to generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time points, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Model outputs are available through a website allowing users to choose the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify which pools may be most likely to function as ecohydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2023

Taming wildfires in the context of climate change: The case of the United States

This report provides a global assessment and outlook on wildfire risk in the context of climate change. It discusses the drivers behind the growing incidence of extreme wildfires and the attribution effect of climate change. It outlines the environmental, social and economic impacts of wildfires by illustrating the losses and costs observed during recent extreme wildfire events. Building on this, the report presents the findings of a cross-country comparative analysis of how countries’ policies and practices have evolved in recent years in light of observed and projected changes in wildfire risk. The analysis draws on in-depth case studies conducted in Australia, Costa Rica, Greece, Portugal and the United States. The report underlines the urgent need for governments to scale up climate change adaptation efforts to limit future wildfire costs.

Report↗
USGS2022

Climate change and plant regeneration from seeds in Mediterranean regions of the Northern Hemisphere

Mediterranean regions are biodiversity hotspots whose landscapes are characterized by evergreen sclerophyllous vegetation, mild-wet winters, and hot-dry summers. In the Northern Hemisphere, they occur in the Mediterranean Basin and California regions. In these areas, whose habitats are heavily shaped by centuries of anthropic activities, the main effects of climate change include a decrease in precipitation and change in its regime, a pronounced warming, an increase in frequency of extreme temperature events, and altered and intensified fire regimes. Climate change poses a double challenge to the regeneration from seeds of Mediterranean plants. Warmer winters mainly affect the seed germination phase by limiting “typical” Mediterranean cold-cued germination in autumn/winter and reducing overwinter dormancy release for those species whose seeds germinate in spring. Harsher summers are detrimental for the establishment phase, compromising seedling survival. However, evidence of phenotypic plasticity in some Mediterranean plants suggests potential adaptation to a changing climate in the short- to medium-term for species of these regions.

Book chapter↗
USGS2021

Evaluating the impact of watershed development and climate change on stream ecosystems: A Bayesian network modeling approach

A continuous-variable Bayesian network (cBN) model is used to link watershed development and climate change to stream ecosystem indicators. A graphical model, reflecting our understanding of the connections between climate change, weather condition, loss of natural land cover, stream flow characteristics , and stream ecosystem indicators is used as the basis for selecting flow metrics for predicting macroinvertebrate-based indicators. Selected flow metrics were then linked to variables representing watershed development and climate change. We fit the model to data from two river basins in southeast US and the resulting model was used to simulate future stream ecological conditions using projected future climate and development scenarios. The three climate models predicted varying ecological condition trajectories, but similar worst-case ecological conditions. The established modeling approach couples mechanistic understanding with field data to develop predictions of management-relevant variables across a heterogeneous landscape. We discussed the transferability of the modeling approach.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2015

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to 21st century climate change

Inland lakes are socially and ecologically important components of many regional landscapes. Exploring lake responses to plausible future climate scenarios can provide important information needed to inform stakeholders of likely effects of hydrologic changes on these waterbodies in coming decades. To assess potential climate effects on lake hydrology, we combined a previously published spatially explicit, processed-based hydrologic modeling framework implemented over the lake-rich landscape of the Northern Highlands Lake District within the United States with an ensemble of climate change scenarios for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Model results quantify the effects of climate change on water budgets and lake stage elevations for 3692 lakes and highlight the importance of landscape and hydrologic setting for the response of specific lake types to climate change. All future climate projections resulted in loss of ice cover and snowpack as well as increased evaporation, but variability in climate projections (warmer conditions, wet winters combined with wet or dry summers) interacted with lake characteristics and landscape position to produce variable lake hydrologic changes. Water levels for drainage lakes (lakes with substantial surface water inflows and outflows) showed nearly no change, whereas minimum water levels for seepage lakes (minimal surface water fluxes) decreased by an average of up to 2.64 m by the end of the 21st century. Our physically based modeling approach is parsimonious and computationally efficient and can be applied to other lake-rich regions to investigate interregional variability in lake hydrologic response to future climate scenarios.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2016

Introduction 2016 was an exciting year for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). In recognition of our ongoing efforts to raise awareness and provide the scientific data and tools needed to address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, ecosystems, and people, NCCWSC and the CSCs received an honorable mention in the first ever Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources sponsored by the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plant Climate Adaptation Strategy’s Joint Implementation Working Group. The recognition is a reflection of our contribution to numerous scientific workshops and publications, provision of training for students and early career professionals, and work with Tribes and indigenous communities to improve climate change resilience across the Nation. In this report, we highlight some of the activities that took place throughout the NCCWSC and CSC network in 2016.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗