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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Rupture branching structure of the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, California earthquake inferred from explosion-generated fault-zone trapped waves

We present evidence for multiple fault branches of the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) based on fault‐zone trapped waves (FZTWs) generated by two explosions that were detonated within the main surface rupture zone produced by the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The FZTWs were recorded by a 15‐kilometer‐long dense (100 m spacing) linear seismic array consisting of 155 4.5‐hertz three‐component seismometers that were deployed across the surface ruptures and adjacent faults in Napa Valley in the summer of 2016. The two explosions were located ∼3.5 km north and ∼5 km south of the 2016 recording array. Prominent FZTWs, with large amplitudes and long wavetrains following the P and S waves, are observed on the seismograms. We analyzed FZTW waveforms in both time and frequency domains to characterize the branching structure of subsurface rupture zones along the WNFZ. The 2014 surface rupture zone was ∼12 km in length along the main trace of the WNFZ, which appears to form an ∼400–600‐meter‐wide low‐velocity waveguide to depths in excess of 5–7 km. Seismic velocities within the main rupture are reduced by 40%–50% relative to the surrounding‐rock velocities. Within 1.5 km of the main trace of the WNFZ, there are at least two subordinate fault traces that formed 3‐ to 6‐kilometer‐long surface breaks during the 2014 mainshock. Our modeling suggests that these subordinate fault traces are also low‐velocity waveguides that connect with the main rupture at depths of ∼2–3 km⁠ , forming a flower structure. FZTWs were also recorded at seismic stations across the Carneros fault (CF), which is ∼1 km west of the WNFZ; this suggests that the CF connects with the WNFZ at shallow depths, even though the CF did not experience surface rupture during the 2014 Mw 6.0 mainshock. 3D finite‐difference simulations of recorded FZTWs imply a branching structure along multiple fault strands associated with the WNFZ.

California↗
USGS2019

Ground-motion attenuation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta, California, from 14 Bay Area earthquakes, including the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake

Peak ground motions (acceleration and velocity) radiated by earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area and recorded within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta generally attenuate faster with distance than the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). We evaluate the attenuation for a wide set of paths into the Delta by analyzing recorded ground motions from fourteen 4 ≤ M < 7 earthquakes located on major Bay area faults: the San Andreas, Calaveras, Hayward, West Napa, and Green Valley faults. We select stations within azimuthal ranges of 38°–114° into the Delta and calculate the residuals of the peak ground motions relative to the Boore et al. (2014) GMPEs. We then fit the natural log of these peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity residuals for each earthquake to the function a−krγ, in which a is an event term and krγ is the differential attenuation. Although there is some variation in the differential attenuation obtained for each earthquake, the peak ground motions from most of the 14 events attenuate faster than predicted by the Boore et al. (2014) GMPEs. The differential attenuation does not appear to depend on azimuth or magnitude of the earthquake; however, earthquake depth may have an effect. Our results suggest that attenuation models for the Delta can be significantly improved through regionalization, although this regionalization will increase the model complexity and the epistemic uncertainty.

California↗
USGS2019

Fault slip associated with the 2 September 2017 M 5.3 Sulphur Peak, Idaho, earthquake and aftershock sequence

The 2 September 2017 M 5.3 Sulphur Peak, Idaho, earthquake is one of the largest earthquakes in southern Idaho since the 1983 M 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake. It was followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence for nearly two weeks that included five events above M 4.5. The coseismic and early postseismic deformation was measured with both Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System (GPS), yielding up to 3 cm subsidence southwest of the mainshock epicenter and horizontal motions of &#x223C; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm "> ∼ 1 mm at sites &#x223C; 40 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ∼ 40 km east and west of the epicenter. We derive dislocation models of the net slip during the &#x223C; 14 &#x2010; day "> ∼ 14 ‐ day s warm from Sentinel 1A interferograms and GPS offsets, allowing for both fault‐zone collapse and normal faulting to account for the observed geodetic motions. Slip inversions yield several decimeters of normal slip on one or more normal faults near the mainshock hypocenter. Distributed normal slip on a moderately (55°) east‐dipping fault, normal slip on one or more shallowly west‐dipping faults, or a combination thereof explain the data equally well and are difficult to distinguish from one another on the basis of geodetic data alone. Previously mapped regional Sevier‐age thrust structures and later normal faults dip westward, suggesting that the sequence reactivated one or more ancient thrust structures with normal slip. If a moderately east‐dipping fault accommodated substantial slip, it would imply a nascent fault structure that cuts across the reactivated ancient thrust structures. The inferred geodetic moment of 3.02 &#x2013; 4.39 &#xD7; 10 17 &#x2009;&#x2009; N &#xB7; m "> 3.02 – 4.39 × 10 17 N ⋅ m ( ⁠ M w "> M w 5.62–5.73) greatly exceeds the 1.15 &#xD7; 10 17 &#x2009;&#x2009; N &#xB7; m "> 1.15×10 17 N·m ( ⁠ M w "> M w 5.34) seismic moment of the 2 September mainshock, showing that most of the moment release occurred during the aftershock sequence. Up to &#x223C; 0.2 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> ∼ 0.2 m of fault‐zone collapse may have occurred on a shallow west‐dipping fault, suggesting possible large‐scale expulsion of fluids from the fault zone at depth.

Idaho↗
USGS2019

Characteristics and spatial variability of wind noise on near-surface broadband seismometers

By coupling with the ground, wind causes ground motion that appears on seismic records as noise across a wide bandwidth. This wind-generated noise can drown out important features such as small earthquakes and prevent observation of normal modes from large earthquakes. Because the wind field is heterogeneous at local scales due to structures, diurnal heating, and topography, wind-induced seismic noise may be different on seismometers installed just meters apart. We have investigated the spatial variability of wind-induced noise using two weather sensors separated by approximately ~100 m and co-located with one deep borehole and four near-surface broadband seismometers. We found that at longer periods (>5 s), increasing wind speed causes increases in noise on the horizontal components of seismometers. While this has been previously observed, we also measured a γ2-coherence of less than 0.2 between the wind speed, wind direction, and the pressure recorded by our weather stations. We further observed a loss of coherence between the vertical components of our seismometers from 8 s to 20 s period. The amplitude of the drop-in coherence appears to depend on the substrate surrounding the seismometer. Based on two previously-developed theoretical models, we found that the local material surrounding the sensor could be amplifying the wind-generated noise. We also investigated the frequency dependence of wind-induced noise and found that the dominant source of high-frequency seismic noise at some sites could be anthropogenic rather than induced by wind. Additionally, we estimated the linear relationship between the root mean squares (RMS) of wind speed and RMS seismic velocity for all sensors, finding substantial variability between different installments. A more detailed understanding of the complex processes by which wind-induced noise is generated can inform the installation of sensors and the development of methods for mitigation of these effects, thus improving the overall quality of seismic data.

New Mexico↗
USGS2018

Microseismic events associated with the Oroville Dam spillway

On 14 February 2017, two small (equivalent M D 0.8 and 1.0) seismic events occurred in proximity to the Oroville Dam in the Sierra Nevada foothills, California. To examine possible causal relationships between these events and reservoir operations, including the spillway failure starting prior to these events, we applied a new optimized template matching approach to seismic data between May 1993 - April 2018. We identified more than 19,000 smaller-magnitude events that were similar in character to the February 14 events. These events are located in proximity to the Oroville spillway and occurred in tight temporal clusters that strongly correlate with periods of spillway discharge. Seismic source inversion is inconclusive, but we suggest that these events might be induced by rapid changes in pore pressure along a fracture (or fractures) near the spillway. Cavitation cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely to be the primary cause of the signals observed because these events are intermittent, impulsive and of short duration. The inferred repetitive opening and closing of the fracture(s) occurred long before any damage to the spillway and is thus probably not directly associated with spillway failure in February 2017. These events were not related to the 1975 M L 5.7 earthquake sequence that may have been induced by the filling of the Oroville reservoir.

California↗
USGS2019

Comparison of site dominant frequency from earthquake and microseismic data in California

An important predictive variable for site amplification is the site dominant frequency ( ⁠ƒ d ⁠ ). At seismic monitoring stations, ƒ d can be calculated from the peak of the horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) obtained from earthquake recordings (eHVSR). For other sites, ƒ d can be estimated from microseismic (mHVSR) observations. We compare the ƒ d values derived from eHVSR (5% damped response spectra from the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 [NGA‐West2] database; Ancheta et al. , 2014 ) with those derived from mHVSR (Fourier spectra from Yong et al. , 2013 ) for seismic stations in California. We show that the logarithm of eHVSR ƒ d scales linearly with the logarithm of mHVSR ƒ d ⁠ , with a standard deviation of 0.14log 10 units for mHVSR ƒ d larger than 0.2 Hz. The relationship holds for microseismic surveys at distances up to 300 m away from the seismic stations. The results of this study have beneficial implications for the characterization of site response in modern ground‐motion models as well as in building codes.

California↗
USGS2019

Improved implementation of rupture location uncertainty in fault displacement hazard assessment

This short note proposes an improvement to the implementation of uncertainty associated with rupture location from future earthquakes in probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis. Location uncertainty leads to nonzero primary fault displacement near a mapped fault. With the improved implementation of location uncertainty, estimated fault displacement hazard at a given site is affected strongly by the dimension of the area considered (or the footprint size of the structure). A larger area near a mapped fault has greater potential of exhibiting primary fault displacement than does a smaller area at the same location. In addition, fault displacement hazard is affected by fault‐map quality and fault‐trace complexity. For a more accurately mapped fault with simpler geometry, larger fault displacement is expected directly over and in close proximity of the mapped fault. If fault location is highly uncertain and fault traces are complex, expected displacement is spread out in a wider zone along the mapped fault.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

An investigation of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing in the Sichuan basin of China based on data from a temporary seismic network

Hydraulic fracturing has been inferred to trigger the majority of injection‐induced seismicity in the Zhaotong and Changning shale gas field, Sichuan basin of China, in contrast to the Midwestern United States, where massive wastewater disposal has been the dominant triggering mechanism. More than 15,000 earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging up to M w 4.7, were recorded by a temporary network in the Sichuan basin for three years, with a completeness magnitude of M L 1.1. A catalog of earthquakes relocated with code tomoDD, combined with comprehensive injection data during an eight day period, shows that the earthquakes were highly correlated spatiotemporally with hydraulic fracturing activities mostly from a single well pad. Three M L ≥4.0 events occurred during hydraulic fracturing operations from 12 to 19 January 2017, followed by the fourth and largest event, with moment magnitude (⁠M w⁠ ) 4.7, on 28 January. The hypocenters of the four largest events were located in dolomite of Cambrian age, between a shale gas reservoir and the top of the crystalline basement rocks. This was found to be similar to 60% of the smaller earthquakes in this cluster, at depths from 2.5 to 4.0 km.

Sichuan basin↗
USGS2019

Determining Moho depth beneath sedimentary basins using regional Pn multiples

The study of the Moho beneath thick sedimentary basins involving natural earthquakes is challenging, as low‐velocity materials often cause strong reverberations that mask Moho signals. Here, we develop a method to determine the depth of the Moho by taking advantage of the presence of the sediments. The method utilizes the first Pn crustal multiple from regional earthquakes PnPn and its differential travel time with respect to Pn. PnPn is usually weak in amplitude; thus, it is difficult to identify in regions without a sedimentary cover. However, PnPn is significantly amplified in the presence of low‐velocity sediments because of an increase in the near‐surface P‐to‐P reflection coefficient. The arrival time, amplitude, and wave shape of PnPn, if normalized by the reference Pn, are insensitive to earthquake source parameters, such as focal mechanism and focal depth. We demonstrate the potential of this method using both 1D and 2D waveform simulations. Synthetic waveforms suggest that PmpPn and PnPmp (one Pn leg merges to PmP near the source or the receiver) largely contribute to the PnPn amplitudes, which depend on the near‐surface structure at their free‐surface P‐to‐P reflection points. We further validate the method with two field examples in the Imperial Valley; one is near the United States–Mexico border, and the other is in Oklahoma in the central United States. Both examples suggest that the method can be used to study the Moho either near the source or the receiver.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

Event detection performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California

We test the Japanese ground‐motion‐based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm, propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM), in southern California with application to the U.S. ShakeAlert system. In late 2018, ShakeAlert began limited public alerting in Los Angeles to areas of expected modified Mercalli intensity (⁠IMMI⁠) 4.0+ for magnitude 5.0+ earthquakes. Most EEW systems, including ShakeAlert, use source‐based methods: they estimate the location, magnitude, and origin time of an earthquake from P waves and use a ground‐motion prediction equation to identify regions of expected strong shaking. The PLUM algorithm uses observed ground motions directly to define alert areas and was developed to address deficiencies in the Japan Meteorological Agency source‐based EEW system during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake sequence. We assess PLUM using (a) a dataset of 193 magnitude 3.5+ earthquakes that occurred in southern California between 2012 and 2017 and (b) the ShakeAlert testing and certification suite of 49 earthquakes and other seismic signals. The latter suite includes events that challenge the current ShakeAlert algorithms. We provide a first‐order performance assessment using event‐based metrics similar to those used by ShakeAlert. We find that PLUM can be configured to successfully issue alerts using IMMI trigger thresholds that are lower than those implemented in Japan. Using two stations, a trigger threshold of IMMI 4.0 for the first station and a threshold of IMMI 2.5 for the second station PLUM successfully detect 12 of 13 magnitude 5.0+ earthquakes and issue no false alerts. PLUM alert latencies were similar to and in some cases faster than source‐based algorithms, reducing area that receives no warning near the source that generally have the highest ground motions. PLUM is a simple, independent seismic method that may complement existing source‐based algorithms in EEW systems, including the ShakeAlert system, even when alerting to light (⁠IMMI 4.0) or higher ground‐motion levels.

California↗
USGS2019

Where was the 31 October 1895, Charleston, Missouri Earthquake?

We revisit the magnitude and location of the 31 October 1895 Charleston, Missouri earthquake, which is widely regarded to be the last M W 6 or greater earthquake in the central United States. Although a recent study (Bakun et al., 2003) concluded that this earthquake was located in southern Illinois, over 100 km north of the traditionally inferred location near Charleston, Missouri, our analysis of exhaustively compiled macroseismic data supports the traditionally inferred location, with a preferred magnitude of M W ≈ 5.8, and preferred range of 5.4 to 6.1. Our preferred magnitude is derived from comparisons with intensity distributions from the 1925 M W = 6.2 Charlevoix, the 1944 M W = 5.8 Massena, and the 1968 M W = 5.3 southern Illinois earthquakes, which we also revisited in this study. Based on the distribution of liquefaction, reports of damage, and early aftershocks, we also explore possible rupture scenarios for the 1895 earthquake. Our preferred scenario involves unilateral rupture to the northeast on a (reactivated) northeast-striking fault (or faults) coinciding with structures associated with the western limb of the Reelfoot Rift, with an epicenter south-southeast of Charleston, Missouri. Our results support the conclusion that, within the Reelfoot Rift, elevated seismic hazard is not restricted to the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) as conventionally defined but continues into the Charleston region in southeastern Missouri where faults associated with the western edge of the Reelfoot Rift appear favorably oriented for failure in the current stress regime.

Missouri↗
USGS2019

Improving earthquake forecasts during swarms with a duration model

Earthquake swarms present a challenge for operational earthquake forecasting because they are driven primarily by transient external processes, such as fluid flow, the behavior and duration of which are difficult to predict. In this study, we develop a swarm duration model to estimate how long a swarm is likely to last based on actuarial statistics of previous swarms in a given region. We demonstrate this approach using swarms that have been identified in the Salton trough in southern California, finding that swarms last an average of &#x223C; 7 "> ∼ 7 ∼7 days and have a relatively constant 15%–16% chance of terminating each day for the first 14 days of the swarm. Cataloged swarm durations are exponentially distributed, so we use a Poissonian model for swarm termination to encapsulate and extend the actuarial statistics. We then show how using the swarm duration model would have affected the earthquake forecast that was released during the 2016 Bombay Beach swarm. The earthquake forecast is substantially improved by incorporating a probabilistic model for how long the swarm is likely to last.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2020

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, to inform logic‐tree weights for the update of the USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii. GMMs are evaluated using two methods. The first is a total residual visualization approach that compares the probability density function (PDF), mean and standard deviations &#x3C3; "> σ ⁠ , of the observed and predicted ground motion. The second GMM evaluation method we use is the common total residual probabilistic scoring method (log likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the Hawaii seismic hazard model logic trees. The total residual PDF approach provides additional information by preserving GMM over‐ and underprediction across a broad spectrum of periods that is not available from a single value LLH score. We apply these GMM evaluation methods to two different data sets: (1) a database of instrumental ground motions from historic earthquakes in Hawaii from 1973 to 2007 ( ⁠ M w "> M w 4–7.3) and (2) available ground motions from recent earthquakes ( ⁠ M w "> M w 4–6.9) associated with 2018 Kilauea eruptions. The 2018 Kilauea sequence contains both volcanic eruptions and tectonic earthquakes allowing for statistically significant GMM comparisons of the two event classes. The Kilauea ground observations provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of GMMs implemented in the new USGS nshmp‐haz software system. We evaluate GMM performance as a function of earthquake depth and we demonstrate that short‐period volcanic eruption ground motions are not well predicted by any candidate GMMs. Nine of the initial 18 candidate GMMs fit the observed ground motions and meet established criteria for inclusion in the update of the Hawaii seismic hazard model. A weighted mean of four top performing GMMs in this study (NGAsubslab, NGAsubinter, ASK14, A10) is 50% lower for PGA than for GMMS used in the previous USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Ensembles of ETAS models provide optimal operational earthquake forecasting during swarms: Insights from the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm

Earthquake swarms, typically modeled as time-varying changes in background seismicity that are driven by external processes such as fluid flow or aseismic creep, present challenges for operational earthquake forecasting. While the time decay of aftershock sequences can be estimated with the modified Omori law, it is difficult to forecast the temporal behavior of seismicity rates during a swarm. To explore these issues, we apply the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm, which lasted several weeks and had almost 100 2≤M≤3.6 earthquakes. We develop 3-day forecasts during the swarm based on an ETAS model fit to all prior seismicity in the region as well as an ETAS model fit only to previous swarms in the region, which is better at capturing the higher background rate during the swarm. We also explore forecasts where the background rate is updated periodically during the swarm using data over different lookback windows and find that generally these models perform better than the models where the background rate is fixed. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts by combining the different models weighted according to their performance. The ensemble forecasts outperform all of the individual models and allow us to avoid making arbitrary choices at the outset of a swarm as to which single model will perform the best.

California↗
USGS2020

A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks

Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults, and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M=7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the USA-Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3-yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by pre-mainshock rupture patterns is strongly favoured (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

κ0 and broadband site spectra in Southern California from source model-constrained inversion

Ground-motion modeling requires accurate representation of the earthquake source, path, and site. Site amplification is often modeled by VS30, the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the top 30 meters of the Earth’s surface, though recent studies find that its ability to accurately predict site effects varies. Another measure of the site is κ0, the attenuation of high frequency energy near the site (Anderson & Hough, 1984). We develop a novel application of the Andrews (1986) method to simultaneously invert the spectra of 3,357 earthquakes in Southern California into source and site components. These earthquakes have magnitudes 2.5 to 5.72 and were recorded on 16 stations for a total of 52,297 records. We constrain the inversion with an individual earthquake demonstrating the most Brune-like shape to preserve the site spectra. We then solve for κ0 site amplification at each station in three frequency bands: 1-6 Hz, 6-14 Hz, and 14-35 Hz. The resulting values of κ0 range from 0.017 seconds at ANZA station PFO to 0.059 seconds at ANZA station SND. We compare our results with values of site κ0 from other studies as well as site residuals from GMPEs. We find good agreement between our site κ0 and previous studies in the region. We find that κ0 and high frequency site amplification (14-35 Hz band) correlates well with independent site residuals, making it a good first-order approximation for the effects of site attenuation or amplification on ground motion.

California↗