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Drought in the Delta: Socio-ecological impacts, responses, and tools

Droughts are frequent events in the western United States, and can disrupt water supply and degrade water quality, challenging water management in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta). This chapter for the State of Bay–Delta Science report describes what drought means for the Delta, how drought is managed in the Delta, and how drought management has changed over time. Projections of future climate indicate the possibility of increased frequency and severity of droughts which would have increasing effects on California’s water system, society, and ecological functions within and beyond the Delta. California has experienced several major droughts in the 20th and 21st centuries, each of which has caused significant social and ecological impacts and motivated improvements in water management. Droughts decrease native fish populations, increase harmful algal blooms, and promote the spread of many invasive plant and animal species. For people living within the Delta and those that rely on Delta water exports, droughts increase drinking water costs and decrease agricultural production, negatively affecting agricultural economies and labor markets. Tools developed in response to droughts include actions that increase supply, such as building water infrastructure, actions to reduce demand, such as water conservation campaigns, and mitigation actions, such as monetary relief for drought-impacted communities. Improving drought resilience requires development of additional drought responses, increased forecasting accuracy, and increased awareness of impacts on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Even with development of additional management actions, strategies, and regulations, there will likely be difficulties meeting the current levels of demand for water. Drought conditions already cause conflict between human and environmental uses, and with more extreme droughts possible in the future and projected increases in demand, it will be challenging to provide for all users’ needs even with major changes to water management in the Delta.

California

Common ravens disrupt greater sage-grouse lekking behavior in the Great Basin, USA

Expansion of human enterprise has contributed to increased abundance and distribution of common ravens ( Corvus corax ; ravens) across sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within western North America. Ravens are highly effective nest predators of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse), a species of high conservation concern. Sage-grouse population trends are estimated using count survey data of males attending traditional breeding grounds, known as leks. We sought to investigate associations of ravens to sage-grouse lek sites and document interactions between the sage-grouse and ravens as well as those between sage-grouse and other animals observed around leks. First, we used extensive raven point counts and sage-grouse lek observation data collected across Nevada and California, USA, from 2009–2019 to evaluate spatial associations between sage-grouse and ravens while accounting for other environmental covariates. We found that ravens were more likely to be observed closer to lek sites, especially as leks increased in size. Second, we used a subset of the lek dataset from 2006–2019 to describe behavioral changes of male sage-grouse in the presence of ravens and other predators. Our analysis indicated that ravens are attracted to lek sites and were associated with disrupting lekking sage-grouse by causing flushes or ceasing displaying behaviors. These results suggest that adult and yearling sage-grouse perceive ravens as a reason to alter breeding activity, and ravens may adversely influence their reproduction during the lekking stage. Additionally, standardized techniques to count sage-grouse on leks for population trend analyses could be biased low if raven presence during surveys is not accounted for.

California, Nevada

Science from genes to landscapes

Wherever flowering plants flourish, pollinating bees, birds, butterflies, bats, and other animals are at work, providing vital and often unnoticed services. Many of these species are in serious decline, a situation if unabated, threatens agricultural production, maintenance of natural plant communities, and other important services. Responding to this urgent challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of efforts to provide scientific information to support pollinator conservation, including the implementation of a national pollinator health strategy ( http://www.usgs.gov/ecosystems/wildlife/pollinators/ .) This science is but one example of how the Ecosystems Science Mission Area of the USGS conducts science to support sound management and conservation of our Nation’s biological resources. It does this through research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State. The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change, to predict and forecast future changes, and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation's economic and environmental well-being.

Fact Sheet

Identifying factors linked with persistence of reintroduced populations: Lessons learned from 25 years of amphibian translocations

Conservation translocations are increasingly used to help recover imperiled species. However, success of establishing populations remains low, especially for amphibians. Identifying factors associated with translocation success can help increase efficiency and efficacy of recovery efforts. Since the 1990s, several captive and semi-captive facilities have produced Chiricahua Leopard Frogs ( Rana chiricahuensis ) to establish or augment wild populations in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. During this same time, personnel associated with several programs surveyed translocation and non-translocation sites for presence of amphibians. We used 25 years (1995–2019) of survey and translocation data for the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog to identify factors linked with population persistence. Our dataset included approximately 40,642 egg masses or animals translocated in 314 events to 115 distinct sites and > 5800 visual encounter surveys from 641 sites; 120 of these sites were also surveyed with environmental DNA methods in 2018. We used a hierarchical dynamic occupancy model that accounted for imperfect detection to identify patch- and landscape-level attributes associated with site occupancy, and then used predictions from that model to evaluate factors associated with population persistence at translocation sites. Across all sites, extinction probability for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs was higher in lotic (stream) than lentic (pond) habitats and when Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ) were present. Restoration of sites specifically for frog conservation reduced extinction probability. Colonization of unoccupied sites increased moderately with increasing numbers of translocation sites within 2 km, indicating a benefit of translocation efforts beyond sites where frogs were stocked. At translocation sites, persistence was greater in lentic than lotic habitats and was negatively correlated with the proportion of years tiger salamanders were present. Increasing numbers of translocation events, especially of late-stage larvae, increased persistence. There was little difference in population persistence based on whether stock was from captive, semi-captive, or wild sources, but translocations during the dry season (January— July) succeeded more than those after the typical arrival of summer rains (August— December). Based on the number of years translocation sites were predicted to be occupied, 2 or more translocations produced, on average, a > 4-yr increase in predicted occupancy compared to sites without translocations. While translocations have increased the number of populations across the landscape, continued management of water availability and threats such as invasive predators and disease remain critical to recovery of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog.

Arizona, New Mexico

Influence of prerelease experience on reintroduced black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes)

Captive breeding is increasingly being used to create supplies of endangered animals for release into natural habitats, but rearing strategies vary and debates arise over which methods are most efficient. We assessed postrelease behaviors and survival of three groups of black-footed ferrets, each with different prerelease experience. Eighteen ferret kits ???60 days of age were moved with their dams from cages to 80-m2 outdoor pens with prairie dog burrows. These animals were compared to animals reared in standard cages (n = 72), some of which were given experience killing prairie dogs (n = 32). Ferrets were released onto white-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys leucurus) colonies in Wyoming, USA, in fall, 1992. Radio-tagged cage-reared ferrets made longer nightly moves and dispersed further from release sites than their pen-reared counterparts. The band return rate was 4-fold higher for pen-reared animals than for cage-reared animals during surveys conducted about 1 month after release. We recommend routine use of quasi-natural outdoor pens for prerelease conditioning of black-footed ferrets.

Biological Conservation

Use of fatty acid analysis to determine dispersal of Caspian Terns in the Columbia River Basin, U.S.A.

Lethal control, which has been used to reduce local abundances of animals in conflict with humans or with endangered species, may not achieve management goals if animal movement is not considered. In populations with emigration and immigration, lethal control may induce compensatory immigration, if the source of attraction remains unchanged. Within the Columbia River Basin (Washington, U.S.A.), avian predators forage at dams because dams tend to reduce rates of emigration of juvenile salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp. ), artificially concentrating these prey. We used differences in fatty acid profiles between Caspian Terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ) at coastal and inland breeding colonies and terns culled by a lethal control program at a mid‐Columbia River dam to infer dispersal patterns. We modeled the rate of loss of fatty acid biomarkers, which are fatty acids that can be traced to a single prey species or groups of species, to infer whether and when terns foraging at dams had emigrated from the coast. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling showed that coastal terns had high levels of C 20 and C 22 monounsaturated fatty acids, whereas fatty acids of inland breeders were high in C18:3n3, C20:4n6, and C22:5n3. Models of the rate of loss of fatty acid showed that approximately 60% of the terns collected at Rock Island Dam were unlikely to have bred successfully at local (inland) sites, suggesting that terns foraging at dams come from an extensive area. Fatty acid biomarkers may provide accurate information about patterns of dispersal in animal populations and may be extremely valuable in cases where populations differ demonstrably in prey base.

Washington

Second chance for the plains bison

Before European settlement the plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) numbered in the tens of millions across most of the temperate region of North America. Within the span of a few decades during the mid- to late-1800s its numbers were reduced by hunting and other factors to a few hundred. The plight of the plains bison led to one of the first major movements in North America to save an endangered species. A few individuals and the American Bison Society rescued the remaining animals. Attempts to hybridize cattle and bison when bison numbers were low resulted in extensive cattle gene introgression in bison. Today, though approximately 500,000 plains bison exist in North America, few are free of cattle gene introgression, 96% are subject to anthropogenic selection for commodity production, and only 4% are in herds managed primarily for conservation purposes. Small herd size, artificial selection, cattle-gene introgression, and other factors threaten the diversity and integrity of the bison genome. In addition, the bison is for all practical purposes ecologically extinct across its former range, with multiple consequences for grassland biodiversity. Urgent measures are needed to conserve the wild bison genome and to restore the ecological role of bison in grassland ecosystems. Socioeconomic trends in the Great Plains, combined with new information about bison conservation needs and new conservation initiatives by both the public and public sectors, have set the stage for significant progress in bison conservation over the next few years.

Biological Conservation

Distribution, status, and traditional significance of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in Venezuela

Aerial and interview surveys were conducted in 1986 to determine the current distribution, status, and traditional significance of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in Venezuela. Aerial surveys provided just eight tentative sightings in 73 hours of searching. These discouraging results may have been due to poor visibility, small populations, and perhaps reduced dry season manatee activity. Results of interview surveys, however, permitted a number of important generalizations. A remnant manatee population exists in Lake Maracaibo, but none occur along the more than 1500 km of Caribbean coastline. Abundance is greatest in eastern Venezuela bordering the Golfo de Paria, in the Orinoco Delta, and in the middle Orinoco and tributaries. Local market hunting in the middle of this century probably greatly reduced manatee populations in these areas. Recent protection laws, education efforts, and manatee scarcity have resulted in a declining interest in manatee hunting. Much excellent manatee habitat persists in these regions, and a continued decline in hunting could result in an optimistic outlook for future manatee populations if the incidental take in net fisheries is controlled. Traditional beliefs and legends concerning manatees in Venezuela, including hunting taboos, show that these animals remain a colorful part of the folk culture. However, manatee protection does not pose economic hardships or infringe upon traditional spiritual beliefs.

Biological Conservation

Estimating occupancy and abundance using aerial images with imperfect detection

Species distribution and abundance are critical population characteristics for efficient management, conservation, and ecological insight. Point process models are a powerful tool for modelling distribution and abundance, and can incorporate many data types, including count data, presence-absence data, and presence-only data. Aerial photographic images are a natural tool for collecting data to fit point process models, but aerial images do not always capture all animals that are present at a site. Methods for estimating detection probability for aerial surveys usually include collecting auxiliary data to estimate the proportion of time animals are available to be detected. We developed an approach for fitting point process models using an N -mixture model framework to estimate detection probability for aerial occupancy and abundance surveys. Our method uses multiple aerial images taken of animals at the same spatial location to provide temporal replication of sample sites. The intersection of the images provide multiple counts of individuals at different times. We examined this approach using both simulated and real data of sea otters ( Enhydra lutris kenyoni ) in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska. Using our proposed methods, we estimated detection probability of sea otters to be 0.76, the same as visual aerial surveys that have been used in the past. Further, simulations demonstrated that our approach is a promising tool for estimating occupancy, abundance, and detection probability from aerial photographic surveys. Our methods can be readily extended to data collected using unmanned aerial vehicles, as technology and regulations permit. The generality of our methods for other aerial surveys depends on how well surveys can be designed to meet the assumptions of N -mixture models.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Investigating and managing the rapid emergence of white-nose syndrome, a novel, fatal, infectious disease of hibernating bats

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a fatal disease of bats that hibernate. The etiologic agent of WNS is the fungus Geomyces destructans , which infects the skin and wing membranes. Over 1 million bats in six species in eastern North America have died from WNS since 2006, and as a result several species of bats may become endangered or extinct. Information is lacking on the pathogenesis of G. destructans and WNS, WNS transmission and maintenance, individual and site factors that contribute to the probability of an outbreak of WNS, and spatial dynamics of WNS spread in North America. We considered how descriptive and analytical epidemiology could be used to fill these information gaps, including a four-step (modified) outbreak investigation, application of a set of criteria (Hill's) for assessing causation, compartment models of disease dynamics, and spatial modeling. We cataloged and critiqued adaptive-management options that have been either previously proposed for WNS or were helpful in addressing other emerging diseases of wild animals. These include an ongoing program of prospective surveillance of bats and hibernacula for WNS, treatment of individual bats, increasing population resistance to WNS (through vaccines, immunomodulators, or other methods), improving probability of survival from starvation and dehydration associated with WNS, modifying hibernacula environments to eliminate G. destructans , culling individuals or populations, controlling anthropogenic spread of WNS, conserving genetic diversity of bats, and educating the public about bats and bat conservation issues associated with WNS.

Conservation Biology

U.S. Geological Survey sagebrush ecosystem research annual report for 2019

The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem extends across a large portion of the Western United States. Affected by multiple stressors, including interactions among fire, exotic plant invasions, and human land uses, this ecosystem has experienced significant loss, fragmentation, and degradation of landscapes once dominated by sagebrush. In turn, wildlife populations have declined following these deleterious conditions. Federal, State, local, and Tribal agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry have been galvanized by declining wildlife populations to implement management actions to confront the impacts of these stressors and insure the long-term availability of the sagebrush ecosystem for the broad range of uses critical to stakeholders in the Western United States. The sagebrush ecosystem provides habitat for over 350 species of plants and animals that are dependent on sagebrush for all or part of their annual life history. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) stands out as the iconic species. Sage-grouse populations occur in 11 States and require relatively large expanses of sagebrush-dominated habitat to meet all their seasonal habitat needs. Recent management actions to conserve and maintain the sagebrush ecosystem have focused on the protection and restoration of sage-grouse habitat. However, each of the 350 species has a unique life history and differing area requirements (for example, large areas for Mule deer [ Odocoileus hemionus ] and small areas for pygmy rabbit [ Brachylagus idahoensis ]), and some species, such as migratory birds, only rely the sagebrush ecosystem for part of the year (for example, Brewer’s sparrow [ Spizella breweri ]). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a broad research program focused on the sagebrush ecosystem and these species and their response to stressors and management actions. The research is tailored specifically to inform and improve strategies for maintaining existing areas of intact sagebrush and restoring degraded landscapes. By providing the science to inform these strategies, the USGS is assisting land and resource managers at the Federal, State, Tribal, and local levels working towards sustainable wildlife populations and restored landscapes. The USGS provides a foundation of scientific information for use in major land and resource management decisions in the sagebrush ecosystem. These have included such actions as the preclusion of the need to list the greater sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act and recent revisions to Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service resource management plans. The USGS continues to build on that foundation to inform science-based decisions within the U.S. Department of the Interior and other Federal, State, and local agencies and their continued conservation, management, and restoration of the sagebrush ecosystem to help support local economies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New

Scaling roads and wildlife: The Cinderella principle

It is clear that a reduction in both direct and indirect effects of roads and road networks must be the goal of management agencies. However, increased permeability of roaded landscapes can only be achieved by up-front planning and subsequent mitigative actions. The key is to understand that roads must be made permeable to the movement of animals. More profoundly, ecosystem services, i.e., clean water, clean air, uncontaminated soil, natural landscapes, recreation opportunities, abundant wildlife, and life sustaining ecological processes must not be seriously impacted. In other words, quality of life as measured by ecosystem services should be a major component of the planning process when roads are constructed or improved. Mitigative structures exist to increase permeability of roads. Wildlife overpasses and underpasses, often referred to as ecoducts or green bridges, with associated structures to enable larger animals to exit the road right of way, e.g., earthen escape ramps (BISSONETTE and HAMMER, 2001), various culvert designs for smaller animals including badger pipes and amphibian and reptile tunnels, and fish ladders are but a small sampling of the structures already in place around the world. What is needed is attention to the big picture. Landscapes need to be reconnected and made more permeable. Responsible agencies and organizations need to be aggressive about promoting mitigations and a conservation ethic into road planning. Only with a broad based effort between a concerned public, a database to work from, and a willingness of responsible agencies, will the now very large virtual footprint of roads and road networks be reduced to more closely approximate the physical footprint. By embracing the Cinderella Principle of making the virtual shoe fit more closely the actual physical footprint of roads, we will be able to achieve a closer connection with ecological harmony with its resultant effect of abundant wildlife.

Conference Paper

Historic and Contemporary Status of Sea Otters in the North Pacific

Similar to other species that in recent centuries experienced unregulated human exploitation, sea otters were extirpated throughout large portions of their historic range in the North Pacific. For most of the twentieth century, with cessation of the fur trade and because of concerted efforts at conservation, sea otters recovered much of their historic range and abundance. Late in the twentieth century, increased predation by killer whales in southwest Alaska drove sea otter populations to a few percentage points of their prior abundance, and one of the nation’s largest oil spills in south-central Alaska caused the death of several thousand animals and required more than two decades for recovery. In California, entanglement in fishing gear and environmental degradation, among other factors, have contributed to slow growth in sea otter abundance. We discuss the role of density dependence and spatial structuring of populations in reduced rates of sea otter recovery recently detected in the Northeast Pacific, and consider the potential effects of multiple low-level and cumulative threats on sea otter populations. The resilience demonstrated by sea otters over the past century will be tested in upcoming decades as human activities continue to degrade nearshore coastal areas of the North Pacific.

Book chapter

Challenges to sea otter recovery and conservation

Similar to other species that in recent centuries experienced unregulated human exploitation, sea otters were extirpated throughout large portions of their historic range in the North Pacific. For most of the twentieth century, with cessation of the fur trade and because of concerted efforts at conservation, sea otters recovered much of their historic range and abundance. Late in the twentieth century, increased predation by killer whales in southwest Alaska drove sea otter populations to a few percentage points of their prior abundance, and one of the nation’s largest oil spills in south-central Alaska caused the death of several thousand animals and required more than two decades for recovery. In California, entanglement in fishing gear and environmental degradation, among other factors, have contributed to slow growth in sea otter abundance. We discuss the role of density dependence and spatial structuring of populations in reduced rates of sea otter recovery recently detected in the Northeast Pacific, and consider the potential effects of multiple low-level and cumulative threats on sea otter populations. The resilience demonstrated by sea otters over the past century will be tested in upcoming decades as human activities continue to degrade nearshore coastal areas of the North Pacific.

Book chapter

Research Furthers Conservation of Grand Canyon Sandbars

Grand Canyon National Park lies approximately 25 km (15 mi) down-river from Glen Canyon Dam, which was built on the Colorado River just south of the Arizona-Utah border in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. Before the dam began to regulate the Colorado River in 1963, the river carried such large quantities of red sediment, for which the Southwest is famous, that the Spanish named the river the Rio Colorado, or 'red river'. Today, the Colorado River usually runs clear below Glen Canyon Dam because the dam nearly eliminates the main-channel sand supply. The daily and seasonal flows of the river were also altered by the dam. These changes have disrupted the sedimentary processes that create and maintain Grand Canyon sandbars. Throughout Grand Canyon, sandbars create habitat for native plants and animals, supply camping beaches for river runners and hikers, and provide sediment needed to protect archaeological resources from weathering and erosion. Maintenance of sandbars in the Colorado River ecosystem, the river corridor that stretches from the dam to the western boundary of Grand Canyon National Park, is a goal of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. The program is a federally authorized initiative to ensure that the mandates of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 are met through advances in information and resource management. The U.S. Geological Survey's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center has responsibility for scientific monitoring and research efforts for the program. Extensive research and monitoring during the past decade have resulted in the identification of possible alternatives for operating Glen Canyon Dam that hold new potential for the conservation of sand resources.

Fact Sheet

Conservation status and recovery strategies for endemic Hawaiian birds

Populations of endemic Hawaiian birds declined catastrophically following the colonization of the islands by Polynesians and later cultures. Extinction is still occurring, and recovery programs are urgently needed to prevent the disappearance of many other species. Programs to recover the endemic avifauna incorporate a variety of conceptual and practical approaches that are constrained by biological, financial, social, and legal factors. Avian recovery is difficult to implement in Hawai‘i because a variety of challenging biological factors limit bird populations. Hawaiian birds are threatened by alien predatory mammals, introduced mosquitoes that transmit diseases, alien invertebrate parasites and predators that reduce invertebrate food resources, and alien animals and plants that destroy and alter habitats. Life in the remote Hawaiian Archipelago has imposed other biological constraints to avian recovery, including limited geographical distributions and small population sizes. Recovery of the endemic avifauna is also challenging because resources are insufficient to mitigate the many complex, interacting factors that limit populations. Decisions must be made for allocating limited resources to species teetering on the brink of extinction and those in decline. If funds are spent primarily on saving the rarest species, more abundant species will decline and become more difficult to recover. However, critically rare species will disappear if efforts are directed mainly towards restoring species that are declining but not in immediate danger of becoming extinct. Determining priorities is difficult also because management is needed both to supplement bird populations and to restore habitats of many species. Rare species cannot respond quickly to management efforts intended only to improve habitat and reduce limiting factors. Recovery is slow, if it occurs at all, because years or decades are generally required for habitat rehabilitation and because small populations of birds initially increase slowly even when habitat conditions are favorable. Consequently, even as habitat conditions begin to improve, small populations may disappear unless they are supplemented directly. Hawaiian bird conservation is also affected by social and legal factors, including hunting alien game species, commercial land use practices, and lawsuits and policies concerning endangered species and critical habitat. Influenced by this mixture of conflicting and competing issues, Hawaiian bird recovery programs range from management of single species and some components of their habitats to limited forms of community or ecosystem management. Although the effectiveness of most programs is difficult to evaluate because of monitoring limitations, several programs exemplify species and community management. Programs primarily intended to recover single species include Hawaiian Goose or Nene ( Branta sandvicensis ), Hawaiian Crow or ‘Alala ( Corvus hawaiiensis ), and Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ). Programs attempting to manage entire communities of forest birds include Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park on Hawai‘i, and Waikamoi Preserve, Hanawi Natural Area Reserve, and Haleakala National Park on Maui.

Hawaii

Guidelines for collecting and maintaining archives for genetic monitoring

Rapid advances in molecular genetic techniques and the statistical analysis of genetic data have revolutionized the way that populations of animals, plants and microorganisms can be monitored. Genetic monitoring is the practice of using molecular genetic markers to track changes in the abundance, diversity or distribution of populations, species or ecosystems over time, and to follow adaptive and non-adaptive genetic responses to changing external conditions. In recent years, genetic monitoring has become a valuable tool in conservation management of biological diversity and ecological analysis, helping to illuminate and define cryptic and poorly understood species and populations. Many of the detected biodiversity declines, changes in distribution and hybridization events have helped to drive changes in policy and management. Because a time series of samples is necessary to detect trends of change in genetic diversity and species composition, archiving is a critical component of genetic monitoring. Here we discuss the collection, development, maintenance, and use of archives for genetic monitoring. This includes an overview of the genetic markers that facilitate effective monitoring, describes how tissue and DNA can be stored, and provides guidelines for proper practice.

Conservation Genetics Resources

A comparison of non-surgical methods for sexing young gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus)

Many turtle species have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), raising the prospect that climate change could impact population dynamics by altering sex ratios. Understanding how climate change will affect populations of animals with TSD requires a reliable and minimally invasive method of identifying the sexes of young individuals. This determination is challenging in many turtles, which often lack conspicuous external sexual dimorphism until years after hatching. Here, we explore four alternatives for sexing three age classes of captive-reared young gopher tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), a terrestrial turtle of conservation concern native to the southeastern United States: (1) naive testosterone levels, (2) testosterone levels following a follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) challenge, (3) linear morphological measurements, and (4) geometric morphometrics. Unlike some other turtle species, male and female neonatal gopher tortoises have overlapping naive testosterone concentration distributions, justifying more complicated methods. We found that sex of neonates (<7 days old) is best predicted by a “random forest” machine learning model with naive testosterone levels and morphological measurements (8% out-of-bag error). Sex of hatchlings (4–8 months old) was predicted with 11% error using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels, or with 4% error using a simple threshold on post-FSH testosterone levels. Sex of juveniles (approximately 3.5 years old) was perfectly predicted using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels. Sexing hatchlings at >4 months of age is the easiest and most reliable non-surgical method for sex identification. Given access to a rearing facility and equipment to perform hormone assays, these methods have the potential to supplant laparoscopic surgery as the method of choice for sexing young gopher tortoises.

Georgia