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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

Geodetically inferred coseismic and postseismic slip due to the M 5.4 31 October 2007 Alum Rock earthquake

On 31 October 2007 the M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake occurred near the junction between the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, producing coseismic and postseismic displacements recorded by 10 continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments. The cumulative postseismic displacements over the four months following the earthquake are linearly related to the cumulative number of aftershocks and are comparable in magnitude to the coseis mic displacements. The postseismic signal suggests that, in addition to afterslip at seismogenic depths, localized right-lateral/reverse slip occurred on dipping shallow fault surfaces southwest of the Calaveras. The spatial distribution of slip inferred by inverting the GPS data is compatible with a model in which moderate Calaveras fault earthquakes rupture locked patches surrounded by areas of creep, afterslip, and microseismicity (Oppenheimer et al., 1990). If this model and existing Calaveras fault slip rate estimates are correct, a slip deficit remains on the 2007 Alum Rock rupture patch that may be made up by aseismic slip or slip in larger earthquakes. Recent studies (e.g., Manaker et al., 2005) suggest that at depth the Hayward and central Calaveras faults connect via a simple continuous surface illuminated by the Mission Seismic Trend (MST), implying that a damaging earthquake rupture could involve both faults (Graymer et al., 2008). If this geometry is correct, the combined coseismic and postseismic slip we infer for the 2007 Alum Rock event predicts static Coulomb stress increases of ???0:6 bar on the MST surface and on the northern Calaveras fault ???5 km northwest of the Alum Rock hypocenter.

California↗

Improving paleoseismic earthquake magnitude estimates with rupture length information: Application to the Puget Lowland, Washington State, U.S.A.

Both earthquake displacement and rupture length correlate with magnitude, and therefore observations of each from past earthquakes can be used to estimate the magnitude of those earthquakes in the absence of instrumental records. We extend the Bayesian inversion method of Biasi and Weldon (2006), which estimates paleoearthquake magnitude from displacement observations, to incorporate both rupture length and surface displacement measurements into the magnitude inversion. We then use this method on 27 late Pleistocene to Holocene paleoearthquakes in the Puget Lowland region of Washington. Observations of (typically vertical) fault separation per event range from 0.6 to 7 m, implying net displacement per event of up to 10 ± 4 m for the largest event. Rupture lengths are estimated to vary between the smallest contiguous mapped scarps to the full extent of the faults mapped from geology and geophysical observations. Although a few of the ruptures may be longer than 150 km, the ruptures have a median of 53 km, indicating that earthquakes in the Puget Lowland have relatively high displacement to length ratios. By considering both datasets, we find that all events were between M 6.3 and 7.5, generally consistent with the expected seismicity from the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map for the region. The simultaneous use of both length and displacement data in the magnitude inversion decreases both the estimated earthquake magnitudes and the uncertainty. The magnitude reduction in particular is due to the relatively short rupture lengths possible for Puget Lowland faults. This implies a decrease in the seismic hazard (relative to a displacement-only assessment) to a highly populated and rapidly urbanizing region.

Washington↗

A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

California↗

An empirical Green’s function approach for isolating directivity effects in earthquake ground-motion amplitudes

In this study, we apply an empirical Green’s function (eGf) method within a ground‐motion modeling framework to mitigate trade‐offs between source, path, and site effects. Many physical processes contribute to spatial variations in observed ground motions, including earthquake radiation pattern, directivity, variable path attenuation, and site effects. Current nonergodic ground‐motion models use spatially varying coefficients for path and site effects, but they do not address trade‐offs with complex earthquake source effects. To quantify the influence of directivity on ground‐motion amplitudes, we use records from multiple smaller earthquakes with epicenters near that of a larger event. We use these small magnitude events as eGfs and estimate repeatable path and site effects at individual stations, assuming that the average adjustments are not controlled by directivity. We adjust residuals from the larger earthquake using the eGf terms, isolating effects related to the rupture. This method clearly enhances the observed broadband directivity observed in the 2022 M 5.1 and 2007 M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake ground motions, reinforcing the conclusion that their ruptures were unilateral. For the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, we find a bilateral rupture model better fits the data because variations in rupture velocity, slip rate, and slip distribution seem to have a stronger effect on the ground motions than rupture direction alone. Applying eGf adjustments reduces the standard deviation of the rupture models over the three earthquakes by 32% on average and by up to 57% for the 2022 Alum Rock earthquake, confirming we have effectively removed repeatable effects related to the wave propagation path and site response. We propose a novel measure of the frequency‐dependent directivity amplification strength as the reduction in ground‐motion residual variability gained by fitting a directivity model; for the three earthquakes considered, this parameter varies between 25% and 75%, indicating that directivity can strongly influence ground motions and should be considered in ground‐motion modeling.

California↗

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence

Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska ( ⁠ M w "> M w 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) to inform logic‐tree weights for the update of the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard model for Alaska. GMMs are evaluated using two methods. The first is a total residual visualization approach that compares the probability density function, mean, and standard deviations σ "> σ of the observed and predicted ground motion. The second GMM evaluation method we use is the common total residual probabilistic scoring method (log likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the Alaska seismic hazard model logic trees. To test logic branches in previous seismic hazard models, we evaluate GMM performance as a function of depth and we demonstrate that some GMMs show improved performance for earthquakes with focal depths greater than 50 km. Ten of the initial 15 candidate GMMs fit the observed ground motions and meet established criteria for inclusion in the next update of the Alaska seismic hazard model.

Alaska↗

Effects of local geological conditions in the San Francisco Bay region on ground motions and the intensities of the 1906 earthquake

Measurements of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada have been completed for 99 locations in the San Francisco Bay region, California. The recordings show marked amplitude variations in the frequency band 0.25 to 3.0 Hz that are consistently related to the local geological conditions of the recording site. The average spectral amplifications observed for vertical and horizontal ground motions are, respectively: (1, 1) for granite, (1.5, 1.6) for the Franciscan Formation, (3.0, 2.7) for the Santa Clara Formation, (3.3, 4.4) for alluvium, and (3.7, 11.3) for bay mud. Spectral amplification curves define predominant ground frequencies in the band 0.25 to 3.0 E for bay mud sites and for some alluvial sites. Amplitude spectra computed from recordings of seismic background noise at 50 sites do not generally define predominant ground frequencies. The intensities ascribed to various sites in the San Francisco Bay region for the California earthquake of April 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the intensities for 917 sites on Franciscan rocks generally decrease with the logarithm of distance as Intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (Distance in kilometers). (1) For sites on other geological units, intensity increments, derived from this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the Average Horizontal Spectral Amplifications (AHSA) according to the empirical relation Intensity Increment = 0.27 + 2.70 log (AHSA). (2) Average intensity increments predicted for the various geological units are −0.3 for granite, 0.2 for the Franciscan Formation, 0.6 for the Great Valley sequence, 0.8 for the Santa Clara Formation, 1.3 for alluvium, and 2.4 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted on the basis of these data delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity for large earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hayward fault. The map provides a crude form of seismic zonation for the region and may be useful for certain general types of land-use zonation.

California↗

Characterization of active faulting beneath the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

Southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington State are subject to megathrust earthquakes, deep intraslab events, and earthquakes in the continental crust. Of the three types of earthquakes, the most poorly understood are the crustal events. Despite a high level of seismicity, there is no obvious correlation between the historical crustal earthquakes and the mapped surface faults of the region. On 24 June 1997, a ML = 4.6 earthquake occurred 3-4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, 30 km to the west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This well-recorded earthquake was preceded by 11 days by a felt foreshock (ML = 3.4) and was followed by numerous small aftershocks. This earthquake sequence occurred in one of the few regions of persistent shallow seismic activity in southwestern British Columbia, thus providing an ideal opportunity to attempt to characterize an active near-surface fault. We have computed focal mechanisms and utilized a waveform cross-correlation and joint hypocentral determination routine to obtain accurate relative hypocenters of the mainshock, foreshock, and 53 small aftershocks in an attempt to image the active fault and the extent of rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Both P-nodal and CMT focal mechanisms show thrust faulting for the mainshock and the foreshock. The relocated hypocenters delineate a north-dipping plane at 2-4 km depth, dipping at 53??, in good agreement with the focal mechanism nodal plane dipping to the north at 47??. The rupture area is estimated to be a 1.3-km-diameter circular area, comparable to that estimated using a Brune rupture model with the estimated seismic moment of 3.17 ?? 1015 N m and the stress drop of 45 bars. The temporal sequence indicates a downdip migration of the seismicity along the fault plane. The results of this study provide the first unambiguous evidence for the orientation and sense of motion for active faulting in the Georgia Strait area of British Columbia.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

S -wave triggering of tremor beneath the Parkfield, California, section of the San Andreas fault by the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake: observations and theory

The dynamic stresses that are associated with the energetic seismic waves generated by the M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the northeast coast of Japan triggered bursts of tectonic tremor beneath the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (SAF) at an epicentral distance of ∼8200 km. The onset of tremor begins midway through the ∼100‐s‐period S‐wave arrival, with a minor burst coinciding with the SHSH arrival, as recorded on the nearby broadband seismic station PKD. A more pronounced burst coincides with the Love arrival, followed by a series of impulsive tremor bursts apparently modulated by the 20‐ to 30‐s‐period Rayleigh wave. The triggered tremor was located at depths between 20 and 30 km beneath the surface trace of the fault, with the burst coincident with the S wave centered beneath the fault 30 km northwest of Parkfield. Most of the subsequent activity, including the tremor coincident with the SHSH arrival, was concentrated beneath a stretch of the fault extending from 10 to 40 km southeast of Parkfield. The seismic waves from the Tohoku epicenter form a horizontal incidence angle of ∼14°, with respect to the local strike of the SAF. Computed peak dynamic Coulomb stresses on the fault at tremor depths are in the 0.7–10 kPa range. The apparent modulation of tremor bursts by the small, strike‐parallel Rayleigh‐wave stresses (∼0.7 kPa) is likely enabled by pore pressure variations driven by the Rayleigh‐wave dilatational stress. These results are consistent with the strike‐parallel dynamic stresses (δτ s ) associated with the S, SHSH, and surface‐wave phases triggering small increments of dextral slip on the fault with a low friction (μ∼0.2). The vertical dynamic stresses δτ d do not trigger tremor with vertical or oblique slip under this simple Coulomb failure model.

California↗

Frequency-dependent Lg Q within the continental United States

Frequency-dependent crustal attenuation (1/ Q ) is determined for seven distinct physiographic/tectonic regions of the continental United States using high-quality Lg waveforms recorded on broadband stations in the frequency band 0.5 to 16 Hz. Lg attenuation is determined from time-domain amplitude measurements in one-octave frequency bands centered on the frequencies 0.75, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, and 12.0 Hz. Modeling errors are determined using a delete-j jackknife resampling technique. The frequency-dependent quality factor is modeled in the form of Q = Q 0 f η. Regions were initially selected based on tectonic provinces but were eventually limited and adjusted to maximize ray path coverage in each area. Earthquake data was recorded on several different networks and constrained to events occurring within the crust (<40 km depth) and at least m b 3.5 in size. A singular value decomposition inversion technique was applied to the data to simultaneously solve for source and receiver terms along with Q for each region at specific frequencies. The lowest crustal Q was observed in northern and southern California where Q is described by the functions Q = 152(±37) f 0.72(±0.16) and Q = 105(±26) f 0.67(±0.16) , respectively. The Basin and Range Province, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountain states also display lower Q and a strong frequency dependence characterized by the functions Q = 200(±40) f 0.68(±0.12) , Q = 152(±49) f 0.76(±0.18) , and Q = 166(±37) f 0.61(±0.14) , respectively. In contrast, in the central and northeast United States Q functions are Q = 640(±225) f 0.344(±0.22) and Q = 650(±143) f 0.36(±0.14) , respectively, show a high crustal Q and a weaker frequency dependence. These results improve upon previous Lg modeling by subdividing the United States into smaller, distinct tectonic regions and using significantly more data that provide improved constraints on frequency-dependent attenuation and errors. A detailed attenuation map of the continental United States can provide significant input into hazard map mitigation. Both scattering and intrinsic attenuation mechanisms are likely to play a comparable role in the frequency range considered in the study.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

The liquefaction record of past earthquakes in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, Eastern United States

Following the 2011 moment magnitude, M "> M M 5.7 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake, we conducted a search for paleoliquefaction features and found 41 sand dikes, sand sills, and soft‐sediment deformation features at 24 sites exposed in cutbanks along several rivers: (1) the South Anna River, where paleoliquefaction features were found in the epicentral area of the Mineral earthquake and farther downstream to the southeast; (2) the Mattaponi and Pamunkey Rivers east of the Fall Line, where liquefiable sediments are more common than in the epicentral area; and (3) the James River and Rivanna River–Stigger Creek, where a few sand dikes were found in the 1990s. Liquefaction features are grouped into two age categories based on dating of host sediment in which they occur and weathering characteristics of the features. A younger generation of features that formed during the past 350 yr are small, few in number, and appear to be limited to the James and Pamunkey Rivers. Though there are large uncertainties in their locations and magnitudes, one or more preinstrumental earthquakes, including the 1758, 1774, and 1875 events, likely caused these features. An older generation of liquefaction features that formed between 350 and 2800 yr ago are larger, more numerous, and more broadly distributed than the younger generation of features. Several earthquakes could account for the regional distribution of paleoliquefaction features, including one event of M "> M M 6.25–6.5 near Holly Grove, or two events of M "> M M 6.0 near Mineral and M "> M M 6.25 near Ashland. Amplification of ground motions in Coastal Plain sediment might have contributed to liquefaction along the Mattaponi and Pamunkey Rivers.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Minimal clustering of injection-induced earthquakes observed with a large-n seismic array

The clustering behavior of injection‐induced earthquakes is examined using one month of data recorded by the LArge‐ n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) array. The 1829‐node seismic array was deployed in a 25 km×32 km area of active saltwater disposal in northern Oklahoma between 14 April and 10 May 2016. Injection rates in the study area are nearly constant around the time of the deployment. We develop a local magnitude ( ⁠ M L ⁠ ) equation for the region and estimate magnitudes for 1104 earthquakes recorded by the deployment. The determined earthquake magnitudes range from M L 0.01 to 3.0. The majority of earthquakes occurred between 1.5 and 5.5 km depth, and the shallowest earthquake depths overlap with the base of injection wells at depths between 1.5 and 2.5 km. We compute focal mechanisms of the largest events ( ⁠ M L > 2.0 ⁠ ), and find a mix of normal‐ and strike‐slip‐faulting types. Earthquakes occur regularly in time during the deployment, but are not evenly distributed in space across the study area, that is, they are spatially clustered. Analysis of the nearest‐neighbor distances in the space–time–magnitude domain shows the seismicity is dominated by single‐event clusters (i.e., independent events). This high proportion of single‐event clusters compared with multievent clusters has been previously noted for induced events at geothermal sites. When clustering occurs, the number of events in a cluster is typically small. We observe only four clusters with 10 or more events. For these larger clusters, we find equivalent numbers of foreshocks and aftershocks; however, the foreshock sequences are significantly longer in duration lasting days to tens of days, while aftershock sequences are observed only on the order of one day. The minimal clustering observed for events in the LASSO array suggests that the majority of events are being directly driven by stress changes due to local saltwater disposal.

Oklahoma↗

Some possible causes of and corrections for STS-1 response changes in the Global Seismographic Network

The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) (Figure 1) plays a key role in providing seismic data for global earthquake monitoring ( e.g. , Benz et al. 2005), earthquake science ( e.g. , Tsai et al. 2005), and studies of Earth structure ( e.g. , Dalton et al. 2008). One of the key GSN design goals is to "provide high fidelity digital recordings of all teleseismic ground motions (adequate to resolve at or near ambient noise up to the largest teleseismic signals over the bandwidth from free oscillations (10 -4 Hz) to teleseismic body waves (up to approximately 15 Hz))" (GSN ad hoc Design Goals Subcommittee 2002). To help meet this goal, Streckeisen STS-1 seismometers were deployed at 80 GSN stations. Some of the GSN sensors have been deployed for more than 25 years. Several recent studies (Davis et al. 2005; Ekström et al. 2006; Davis and Berger 2007) have examined the question of overall calibration of the GSN. Ekström et al. (2006) indicated that a number of sites showed anomalous responses and suggested a gradual decay in the sensitivity. We have investigated the anomalous responses at several GSN sites. At least some of the problems observed by Ekström et al. (2006) may be attributed to humid air leaking into the feedback electronics of the STS-1 seismometers, which produces lower than normal sensitivities near the long-period corner of the instrument (360 seconds period). It appears that even though the feedback electronics boxes are designed to be sealed, water vapor can penetrate their interior after they have been exposed to highly humid seismometer vault air for extended periods. Highly humid air was also found to be present inside some STS-1 bell-jars (especially horizontal instruments) after loss of vacuum, resulting in corrosion and leakage between electrical conductors in connectors.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Local observations of the onset of a large earthquake: 28 June 1992 Landers, California

The Landers earthquake ( M W 7.3) of 28 June 1992 had a very emergent onset. The first large amplitude arrivals are delayed by about 3 sec with respect to the origin time, and are preceded by smaller-scale slip. Other large earthquakes have been observed to have similar emergent onsets, but the Landers event is one of the first to be well recorded on nearby stations. We used these recordings to investigate the spatial relationship between the hypocenter and the onset of the large energy release, and to determine the slip function of the 3-sec nucleation process. Relative location of the onset of the large energy release with respect to the initial hypocenter indicates its source was between 1 and 4 km north of the hypocenter and delayed by approximately 2.5 sec. Three-station array analysis of the P wave shows that the large amplitude onset arrives with a faster apparent velocity compared to the first arrivals, indicating that the large amplitude source was several kilometers deeper than the initial onset. An M L 2.8 foreshock, located close to the hypocenter, was used as an empirical Green's function to correct for path and site effects from the first 3 sec of the mainshock seismogram. The resultant deconvolution produced a slip function that showed two subevents preceding the main energy release, an M W 4.4 followed by an M W 5.6. These subevents do not appear anomalous in comparison to simple moderate-sized earthquakes, suggesting that they were normal events which just triggered or grew into a much larger earthquake. If small and moderate-sized earthquakes commonly “detonate” much larger events, this implies that the dynamic stresses during earthquake rupture are at least as important as long-term static stresses in causing earthquakes, and the prospects of reliable earthquake prediction from premonitory phenomena are not improved.

California↗

Seismic envelope-based detection and location of ground-coupled airwaves from volcanoes in Alaska

Volcanic explosions and other infrasonic sources frequently produce acoustic waves that are recorded by seismometers. Here we explore multiple techniques to detect, locate, and characterize ground‐coupled airwaves (GCA) on volcano seismic networks in Alaska. GCA waveforms are typically incoherent between stations, thus we use envelope‐based techniques in our analyses. For distant sources and planar waves, we use f ‐ k beamforming to estimate back azimuth and trace velocity parameters. For spherical waves originating within the network, we use two related time difference of arrival (TDOA) methods to detect and localize the source. We investigate a modified envelope function to enhance the signal‐to‐noise ratio and emphasize both high energies and energy contrasts within a spectrogram. We apply these methods to recent eruptions from Cleveland, Veniaminof, and Pavlof Volcanoes, Alaska. Array processing of GCA from Cleveland Volcano on 4 May 2013 produces robust detection and wave characterization. Our modified envelopes substantially improve the short‐term average/long‐term average ratios, enhancing explosion detection. We detect GCA within both the Veniaminof and Pavlof networks from the 2007 and 2013–2014 activity, indicating repeated volcanic explosions. Event clustering and forward modeling suggests that high‐resolution localization is possible for GCA on typical volcano seismic networks. These results indicate that GCA can be used to help detect, locate, characterize, and monitor volcanic eruptions, particularly in difficult‐to‐monitor regions. We have implemented these GCA detection algorithms into our operational volcano‐monitoring algorithms at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

Alaska↗

System identification based on deconvolution and cross correlation: An application to a 20‐story instrumented building in Anchorage, Alaska

Deconvolution and cross‐correlation techniques are used for system identification of a 20‐story steel, moment‐resisting frame building in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. This regular‐plan midrise structure is instrumented with a 32‐channel accelerometer array at 10 levels. The impulse response functions (IRFs) and correlation functions (CFs) are computed based on waveforms recorded from ambient vibrations and five local and regional earthquakes. The earthquakes occurred from 2005 to 2014 with moment magnitudes between 4.7 and 6.2 over a range of azimuths at epicenter distances of 13.3–183 km. The building’s fundamental frequencies and mode shapes are determined using a complex mode indicator function based on singular value decomposition of multiple reference frequency‐response functions. The traveling waves, identified in IRFs with a virtual source at the roof, and CFs are used to estimate the intrinsic attenuation associated with the fundamental modes and shear‐wave velocity in the building. Although the cross correlation of the waveforms at various levels with the corresponding waveform at the first floor provides more complicated wave propagation than that from the deconvolution with virtual source at the roof, the shear‐wave velocities identified by both techniques are consistent—the largest difference in average values is within 8%. The median shear‐wave velocity from the IRFs of five earthquakes is 191 m/s for the east–west (E‐W), 205 m/s for the north–south (N‐S), and 176 m/s for the torsional responses. The building’s average intrinsic‐damping ratio is estimated to be 3.7% and 3.4% in the 0.2–1 Hz frequency band for the E‐W and N‐S directions, respectively. These results are intended to serve as reference for the undamaged condition of the building, which may be used for tracking changes in structural integrity during and after future earthquakes.

Alaska↗

Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude M I 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 M I 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 M I 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 M I 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

Hispaniola↗

Earthquake site response in Santa Cruz, California

Aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake are used to estimate site response in a 12-km 2 area centered on downtown Santa Cruz. A total of 258 S -wave records from 36 aftershocks recorded at 33 sites are used in a linear inversion for site-response spectra. The inversion scheme takes advantage of the redundancy of the large data set for which several aftershocks are recorded at each site. The scheme decomposes the observed spectra into source, path, and site terms. The path term is specified before the inversion. The undetermined degree of freedom in the decomposition into source and site spectra is removed by specifying the site-response factor to be approximately 1.0 at two sites on crystalline bedrock. The S -wave site responses correlate well with the surficial geology and observed damage pattern of the mainshock. The site-response spectra of the floodplain sites, which include the heavily damaged downtown area, exhibit significant peaks. The largest peaks are between 1 and 4 Hz. Five floodplain sites have amplification factors of 10 or greater. Most of the floodplain site-response spectra also have a smaller secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. Residential areas built on marine terraces above the floodplain experienced much less severe damage. Site-response spectra for these areas also have their largest peaks between 1 and 4 Hz, but the amplification is generally below 6. Several of these sites also have a secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. The response peaks seen at nearly all sites between 1 and 4 Hz are probably caused by the natural resonance of the sedimentary rock column. The higher amplifications at floodplain sites may be caused by surface waves generated at the basin margins. The secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz at many sites may be a harmonic of the 1- to 4-Hz peaks.

California↗

Epistemic uncertainty in the location and magnitude of earthquakes in Italy from Macroseismic data

Three independent techniques (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997; Boxer from Gasperini et al., 1999; and Macroseismic Estimation of Earthquake Parameters [MEEP; see Data and Resources section, deliverable D3] from R.M.W. Musson and M.J. Jimenez) have been proposed for estimating an earthquake location and magnitude from intensity data alone. The locations and magnitudes obtained for a given set of intensity data are almost always different, and no one technique is consistently best at matching instrumental locations and magnitudes of recent well-recorded earthquakes in Italy. Rather than attempting to select one of the three solutions as best, we use all three techniques to estimate the location and the magnitude and the epistemic uncertainties among them. The estimates are calculated using bootstrap resampled data sets with Monte Carlo sampling of a decision tree. The decision-tree branch weights are based on goodness-of-fit measures of location and magnitude for recent earthquakes. The location estimates are based on the spatial distribution of locations calculated from the bootstrap resampled data. The preferred source location is the locus of the maximum bootstrap location spatial density. The location uncertainty is obtained from contours of the bootstrap spatial density: 68% of the bootstrap locations are within the 68% confidence region, and so on. For large earthquakes, our preferred location is not associated with the epicenter but with a location on the extended rupture surface. For small earthquakes, the epicenters are generally consistent with the location uncertainties inferred from the intensity data if an epicenter inaccuracy of 2-3 km is allowed. The preferred magnitude is the median of the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes. As with location uncertainties, the uncertainties in magnitude are obtained from the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes: the bounds of the 68% uncertainty range enclose 68% of the bootstrap magnitudes, and so on. The instrumental magnitudes for large and small earthquakes are generally consistent with the confidence intervals inferred from the distribution of bootstrap resampled magnitudes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗