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Detection and measurement of land subsidence and uplift using interferometric synthetic aperture radar, San Diego, California, USA, 2016–2018

Land subsidence associated with groundwater-level declines is stipulated as an “undesirable effect” in California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), and has been identified as a potential issue in San Diego, California, USA. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Sweetwater Authority, and the City of San Diego, undertook a cooperative study to better understand the hydromechanical response of the coastal aquifer system using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques. Three periods of interest were analyzed for this study that correspond to the periods before and after two substantial changes were made to the location and volume of pumpage: (1) April–August 2016 when groundwater levels and land surface elevation were relatively stable during normal pumping, (2) September 2016–May 2017 when groundwater levels recovered and the land surface uplifted during a period of substantially reduced pumping, (3) June 2017–October 2018 when groundwater levels declined and land subsidence occurred when pumpage resumed and expanded to new wells. Spatial and temporal characterization of the hydromechanical response to changes in pumpage is important for managing land subsidence. Further study using InSAR techniques, especially when combined with ground-based geodetic and monitoring-well networks, will provide water managers information to help effectively manage groundwater resources as stipulated in the SGMA.

California

Computation of the time-varying flow rate from an artesian well in central Dade County, Florida, by analytical and numerical simulation methods

Simulation of the development of a plume of brackish water in a surficial aquifer caused by discharge from a flowing artesian well required an accurate estimate of the rate of flow during a 40-year period. The rate of flow from the well, constructed with 12-inch casing in 1944, was measured to be 2,350 gallons per minute 2 months after completion and 1,170 gallons per minute in 1964, 1965, and 1969. The rates measured 20 years apart appeared to be mutually inconsistent unless the difference could be explained by the: (1) drawdown of the aquifer over time, (2) raising of the altitude at which the water was discharged, (3) installation of 80 feet of 8-inch liner, or (4) deterioration of the condition of the well over time. The latter possibility implies losses of flows through holes in the casing and increased friction losses. Application of an analytical solution relating the time-varying rate of flow to a constant opposing head (a rewriting of the "constant drawdown" formula) failed to reconcile the measured rates, though estimates provided by use of the formula differed by only about 15 percent. Numerical simulation techniques were also used to estimate the rate of artesian flow from the source aquifer, a permeable zone at about 1,200 feet below land surface, near the top of the Upper Floridan aquifer in southeastern Florida. The selected simulation code contained a well-riser model that was used to account for friction losses in the well. Construction of a highly generalized model of the Floridan aquifer system for the flow-rate analysis, and the determination of a set of predevelopment head values for use as an initial condition, permitted simulation of the effects of recharge through leaky confining layers or from aquifer boundaries at a finite distance from the well. The conceptual model supported by the calibration of the model of the Floridan aquifer system is that a hydraulically uniform Lower Floridan aquifer ("Boulder Zone") provides recharge to the Upper Floridan aquifer through a leaky middle confining unit, and head variations in the Upper Floridan aquifer are related to variations in the thickness of the zone of fresh and brackish water extending downward into the confining unit. Results of the flow-rate analysis indicated that the flow rate should reach equilibrium after about 1 week because the Upper Floridan aquifer received recharge from the Boulder Zone through the intervening middle confining unit. The well modifications probably only decreased the rate of flow by 18 to 19 percent. A sensitivity analysis indicated that variation in the roughness coefficient of a degree that could represent severe deterioration of the well casing decreased the estimated flow rate by about 17.5 percent. Another sensitivity analysis indicated that installation of 80 feet of 8-inch liner had only a slight effect on the flow rate. The flow-rate inconsistency was not fully resolved by the analysis, but could be explained as a combination of the result of well modification, deterioration of the condition of the well, and other factors not amenable to analysis (inaccuracy in one or more of the flow-rate measurements or greater than estimated losses through the casing). The transmissivity of the source aquifer was estimated to be 11,125 feet squared per day at the well site. Besides the construction of a generalized model of the Floridan aquifer system, the most significant result of the analysis was the demonstration of a simulation approach for accurately showing the relation between aquifer characteristics and the rate of flow from artesian wells. However, this approach requires considerably more analytical effort and data describing aquifer properties than does application of the constant drawdown formula.

Florida

Lake temperature and ice cover regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling

Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Dissolved methane in New York groundwater, 1999-2011

New York State is underlain by numerous bedrock formations of Cambrian to Devonian age that produce natural gas and to a lesser extent oil. The first commercial gas well in the United States was dug in the early 1820s in Fredonia, south of Buffalo, New York, and produced methane from Devonian-age black shale. Methane naturally discharges to the land surface at some locations in New York. At Chestnut Ridge County Park in Erie County, just south of Buffalo, N.Y., several surface seeps of natural gas occur from Devonian black shale, including one behind a waterfall. Methane occurs locally in the groundwater of New York; as a result, it may be present in drinking-water wells, in the water produced from those wells, and in the associated water-supply systems (Eltschlager and others, 2001). The natural gas in low-permeability bedrock formations has not been accessible by traditional extraction techniques, which have been used to tap more permeable sandstone and carbonate bedrock reservoirs. However, newly developed techniques involving horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing have made it possible to extract previously inaccessible natural gas from low-permeability bedrock such as the Marcellus and Utica Shales. The use of hydraulic fracturing to release natural gas from these shale formations has raised concerns with water-well owners and water-resource managers across the Marcellus and Utica Shale region (West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and parts of several other adjoining States). Molofsky and others (2011) documented the widespread natural occurrence of methane in drinking-water wells in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. In the same county, Osborn and others (2011) identified elevated methane concentrations in selected drinking-water wells in the vicinity of Marcellus gas-development activities, although pre-development samples were not available for comparison. In order to manage water resources in areas of gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing in New York, the natural occurrence of methane in the State's aquifers needs to be documented. This brief report presents a compilation of data on dissolved methane concentrations in the groundwater of New York available from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis).

New York

Linking Proxy-Based and Datum-Based Shorelines on a High-Energy Coastline: Implications for Shoreline Change Analyses

A primary purpose of this paper is to quantitatively link variously defined and derived shoreline estimates commonly used for shoreline change analysis. Estimates of shoreline mapping and derivation error, natural shoreline variability, and the relationships between horizontally-derived (proxy-based) shorelines to vertical datums (e.g. MHW) are presented. A series of shoreline repeatability and variability experiments as well as data from a beach monitoring program along the high-energy US Pacific Northwest coast, indicate total uncertainty estimates of the horizontal position of proxy-based shorelines to be approximately ?? 50-150 m for T-sheets and aerial photography and approximately ?? 15 m for datum-based shorelines derived from ground- or air-based topographic surveys. The ability to obtain reliable shoreline change results depends upon both the selected shoreline definition (e.g. horizontal- or feature-based proxy, or datum-based intercept) and the accuracy of the technique used in mapping or interpreting its position. The position of the selected shoreline on the beach profile determines its inherent temporal and spatial variability, an important consideration that has often been overlooked in the scientific literature on shoreline change, Historical shorelines mapped on NOS T-sheets and aerial photos have commonly identified high water line (HWL)-type shorelines, which are shown to be higher on the beach surface than the MHW-datum intercept along coasts subject to wave runup. Analyses of 4.5 years of beach profile data from the southwest Washington coast suggest that both the MHW and HWL-type shorelines have greater natural short-term variability than expected, significantly greater than the variability of shoreline proxies defined farther landward and higher on the beach profile. A model for determining the natural variability of HWL-type shorelines reveals that this short-term variability is the dominant factor in the large total uncertainty values associated with shorelines derived from T-sheets and aerial photographs. The results of these analyses and quantitative comparisons are relevant to determining the significance of historical shoreline changes, as well as to defining the appropriate shoreline proxy or datum and time scale for future shoreline change analysis.

Conference Paper

Mechanics and modeling of flow, sediment transport and morphologic change in riverine lateral separation zones

Lateral separation zones or eddies in rivers are critically important features for sediment storage and for a variety of roles they play in riparian and aquatic ecology. As part of a larger effort to predict the morphology of lateral separation zones in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon for a selection of sediment supply and discharge scenarios, we evaluated the performance of two modeling techniques for predicting flow, sediment transport, and morphodynamics in eddies using field data. In order to understand the relative roles of various exchange mechanisms between the main channel and eddies, we applied two-dimensional unsteady and three-dimensional unsteady models in a reach containing a lateral separation zone. Both models were developed, calibrated, and evaluated using detailed field data comprising acoustic-Doppler velocity measurements, water-surface elevations, sediment concentration by size class, and bathymetry measured during a flood event in the Colorado River. Model results and measurements are used to develop a better understanding of the mechanics of water and sediment exchange between the eddy and the mainstem and other factors that control the morphology of the reach.

Arizona

Hydrology of Area 1, eastern coal province, Pennsylvania [West Branch Susquehanna River, Sinnemahoning Creek, Upper Juniata River, Clearfield Creek]

Provisions of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 recognized a nationwide need for hydrologic information in mined and potentially mined areas. This report is designed to be useful to mine owners, operators, regulatory authorities, citizens groups, and others by presenting information on existing hydrologic conditions and by identifying additional sources of hydrologic information. General hydrologic information is presented in a brief text accompanied by a map, chart, graph, or other illustration for each of a series of water resources-related topics. The summation of the topical discussions provides a description of the hydrology of the area. The Eastern Coal Province has been divided into 24 hydrologic study areas which are shown on the cover of this report. The divisions are based on hydrologic factors, location, and size. Hydrologic units (surface drainage basins) or parts of units are combined to form each study area. Area 1 covers 7,400 square miles of the Eastern Coal Province in part or all of 18 counties in west-central Pennsylvania. The major streams in the area are the West Branch Susquehanna and Juniata Rivers. Area 1 counties produced more than 20,000,000 tons of coal during 1979. About 66,000 acres of disturbed coal land in Area 1 counties are in need of reclamation. Streamflow data have been collected at 146 locations in the area, and water-quality data have been collected at 123 locations. Interpretations of water quality in this report are generally based on a series of four water-quality samples collected at each of 113 locations during the 1979-80 water years. Water-quality data collected at these sites included: specific conductance; dissolved solids; pH; acidity; alkalinty; total and dissolved iron; total and dissolved manganese; sulfate; and bed-material iron, manganese, coal, and organic carbon. Most sites had benthic invertebrate populations sampled and analyses of bed-material constituents. A smaller set of sites was sampled for common constituents and minor elements. Streams in Clearfield and Cambria Counties, the two leading coal producers in the area, had median specific conductances and dissolved-solids concentrations three to five times greater than those from other area counties. Clearfield County streams had the lowest median stream pH in the area. Most streams sampled in the area had acidity in excess of alkalinity. Streams in the three major coal producing counties in the area had median total-iron concentrations two to three times higher than those for other area counties, and the same general pattern was found for total manganese. The median sulfate concentration of a county's streams showed a close positive correlation with the amount of coal mined in the county. Iron and coal concentrations in bed material were higher in coal-producing counties, but manganese concentrations in bed material were not higher. Twenty-eight streams did not have a benthic biological community as defined by the Office of Surface Mining. Three-fourths of the sites with no biological community had levels of pH, acidity, iron, manganese, and sulfate indicative of acid mine drainage. Statistics on low flow, mean flow, peak flow, and flow-duration can be computed from gaging station records for gaged streams. The same statistics can be estimated for ungaged streams through the use of regression or graphical techniques. This information may be useful in preparing and evaluating mine-permit applications. Aquifers in the area receive most recharge from precipitation on outcrop areas. Highest ground-water levels generally occur in spring, decline during the summer, and begin to rise again during the fall. Water levels in valleys generally show less fluctuation than on hills. Median well yields in the area range from 5 to 50 gallons per minute. Ground-water supplies are obtained from more than 40 formations. Ground-water quality is generally suitable for most uses.

Pennsylvania

A Generalized Approach for the Interpretation of Geophysical Well Logs in Ground-Water Studies:Theory and Application

Quantitative analysis of geophysical logs in ground-water studies often involves at least as broad a range of applications and variation in lithology as is typically encountered in petroleum exploration, making such logs difficult to calibrate and complicating inversion problem formulation. At the same time, data inversion and analysis depend on inversion model formulation and refinement, so that log interpretation cannot be deferred to a geophysical log specialist unless active involvement with interpretation can be maintained by such an expert over the lifetime of the project. We propose a generalized log-interpretation procedure designed to guide hydrogeologists in the interpretation of geophysical logs, and in the integration of log data into ground-water models that may be systematically refined and improved in an iterative way. The procedure is designed to maximize the effective use of three primary contributions from geophysical logs: (1) The continuous depth scale of the measurements along the well bore; (2) The in situ measurement of lithologic properties and the correlation with hydraulic properties of the formations over a finite sample volume; and (3) Multiple independent measurements that can potentially be inverted for multiple physical or hydraulic properties of interest. The approach is formulated in the context of geophysical inversion theory, and is designed to be interfaced with surface geophysical soundings and conventional hydraulic testing. The step-by-step procedures given in our generalized interpretation and inversion technique are based on both qualitative analysis designed to assist formulation of the interpretation model, and quantitative analysis used to assign numerical values to model parameters. The approach bases a decision as to whether quantitative inversion is statistically warranted by formulating an over-determined inversion. If no such inversion is consistent with the inversion model, quantitative inversion is judged not possible with the given data set. Additional statistical criteria such as the statistical significance of regressions are used to guide the subsequent calibration of geophysical data in terms of hydraulic variables in those situations where quantitative data inversion is considered appropriate.

Ground Water

Chapter A8. Bottom-material samples

The National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data(National Field Manual) describes protocols (requirements and recommendations) and provides guidelines for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation's surface-water and ground-water resources. This release of Chapter A8 provides guidelines for the equipment and procedures needed to collect and process samples of bottom material for the evaluation of surface-water quality. Each chapter of the National Field Manual is published separately and revised periodically. Newly published and revised chapters are posted on the World Wide Web on the USGS page 'National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data.' The URL for this page is http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/twri9A/ (accessed April 2005).

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations

Depth to water in the western Snake River Plain and surrounding tributary valleys, southwestern Idaho and eastern Oregon, calculated using water levels from 1980 to 1988

The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in Idaho is being assessed by the ISHW/DEQ (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Division of Environmental Quality), using a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency DRASTIC methods (Allers and others, 1985). The project was designed as a technique to: (1) Assign priorities for development of ground-water management and monitoring programs; (2) build support for, and public awareness of, vulnerability of ground water to contamination; (3) assist in the development of regulatory programs; and (4) provide access to technical data through the use of a GIS (geographic information system) (C. Grantham, Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, written commun., 1989). Digital representation of first-encountered water below land surface is an important element in evaluating vulnerability of ground water to contamination. Depth-to-water values were developed using existing data and computer software to construct a GIS data set to be combined with a soils data set developed by the SCS (Soul Conservation Service) and the IDHW/WQB (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare/Water Quality Bureau), and a recharge data set developed by the IDWR/RSF (idaho Department of Water Resources/Remote Sensing Facility). The USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) has developed digital depth-to-water values for eleven 1:100,00-scale quadrangles on the eastern Snake River Plain and surrounding tributary valleys.

Idaho

Experimental determination of the phase boundary between kornelite and pentahydrated ferric sulfate at 0.1MPa

Recent findings of various ferric sulfates on Mars emphasize the importance of understanding the fundamental properties of ferric sulfates at temperatures relevant to that of Martian surface. In this study, the phase boundary between kornelite (Fe2(SO4)3.7H2O) and pentahydrated ferric sulfate (Fe2(SO4)3.5H2O) was experimentally determined using the humidity-buffer technique together with gravimetric measurements and Raman spectroscopy at 0.1MPa in the 36-56??C temperature range. Through the thermodynamic analysis of our experimental data, the enthalpy change (-290.8??0.3kJ/mol) and the Gibbs free energy change (-238.82??0.02kJ/mol) for each water molecule of crystallization in the rehydration of pentahydrated ferric sulfate to kornelite were obtained. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Chemical Geology

Simplified method of deep-tow seismic profiling

To improve resolution of seismic-reflection profiles in continental slope water depths of 900 to 1500 m, a single hydrophone was towed about 150 m off the bottom to receive reflected signals from a surface-towed sparker sound source. That deep-towed hydrophone data show that valleys which appear V-shaped in records from a surface-towed hydrophone are flat-bottomed, and that subbottom reflections from an erosional unconformity can be much better resolved. The data produced by this technique are very hepful when used in conjunction with records from conventional surface-towed seismic-profiling equipment.

Geo-Marine Letters

Limestone characterization to model damage from acidic precipitation: Effect of pore structure on mass transfer

The pore structure of Salem limestone is investigated, and conclusions regarding the effect of the pore geometry on modeling moisture and contaminant transport are discussed based on thin section petrography, scanning electron microscopy, mercury intrusion porosimetry, and nitrogen adsorption analyses. These investigations are compared to and shown to compliment permeability and capillary pressure measurements for this common building stone. Salem limestone exhibits a bimodal pore size distribution in which the larger pores provide routes for convective mass transfer of contaminants into the material and the smaller pores lead to high surface area adsorption and reaction sites. Relative permeability and capillary pressure measurements of the air/water system indicate that Salem limestone exhibits high capillarity end low effective permeability to water. Based on stone characterization, aqueous diffusion and convection are believed to be the primary transport mechanisms for pollutants in this stone. The extent of contaminant accumulation in the stone depends on the mechanism of partitioning between the aqueous and solid phases. The described characterization techniques and modeling approach can be applied to many systems of interest such as acidic damage to limestone, mass transfer of contaminants in concrete and other porous building materials, and modeling pollutant transport in subsurface moisture zones.

Environmental Science & Technology

An Introduction to Using Surface Geophysics to Characterize Sand and Gravel Deposits

This report is an introduction to surface geophysical techniques that aggregate producers can use to characterize known deposits of sand and gravel. Five well-established and well-tested geophysical methods are presented: seismic refraction and reflection, resistivity, ground penetrating radar, time-domain electromagnetism, and frequency-domain electromagnetism. Depending on site conditions and the selected method(s), geophysical surveys can provide information concerning areal extent and thickness of the deposit, thickness of overburden, depth to the water table, critical geologic contacts, and location and correlation of geologic features. In addition, geophysical surveys can be conducted prior to intensive drilling to help locate auger or drill holes, reduce the number of drill holes required, calculate stripping ratios to help manage mining costs, and provide continuity between sampling sites to upgrade the confidence of reserve calculations from probable reserves to proved reserves. Perhaps the greatest value of geophysics to aggregate producers may be the speed of data acquisition, reduced overall costs, and improved subsurface characterization.

Circular

An Introduction to Using Surface Geophysics to Characterize Sand and Gravel Deposits

This report is an introduction to surface geophysical techniques that aggregate producers can use to characterize known deposits of sand and gravel. Five well-established and well-tested geophysical methods are presented: seismic refraction and reflection, resistivity, ground penetrating radar, time-domain electromagnetism, and frequency-domain electromagnetism. Depending on site conditions and the selected method(s), geophysical surveys can provide information concerning aerial extent and thickness of the deposit, thickness of overburden, depth to the water table, critical geologic contacts, and location and correlation of geologic features. In addition, geophysical surveys can be conducted prior to intensive drilling to help locate auger or drill holes, reduce the number of drill holes required, calculate stripping ratios to help manage mining costs, and provide continuity between sampling sites to upgrade the confidence of reserve calculations from probable reserves to proved reserves. Perhaps the greatest value of geophysics to aggregate producers may be the speed of data acquisition, reduced overall costs, and improved subsurface characterization.

Open-File Report

Radargrammetry on three planets

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can provide useful images in situations where passive optical imaging cannot, either because the microwaves used can penetrate atmospheric clouds, because active imaging can "see in the dark," or both. We have participated in the NASA Magellan mission to Venus in the 1990s and the current NASA-ESA Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn and Titan, which have used SAR to see through the clouds of Venus and Titan, respectively, and have developed software and techniques for the production of digital topographic models (DTMs) from radar stereopairs. We are currently preparing for similar radargrammetric analysis of data from the Mini-RF instrument to be carried to the Moon on both the ISRO Chandrayaan-1 and NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) missions later in 2008. These instruments are intended to image the permanently shadowed areas at the lunar poles and even see below the surface to detect possible water ice deposits. In this paper, we describe our approach to radargrammetric topographic mapping, based on the use of the USGS ISIS software system to ingest and prepare data, and the commercial stereoanalysis software SOCET SET (® BAE Systems), augmented with custom sensor models we have implemented, for DTM production and editing. We describe the commonalities and differences between the various data sets, and some of the lessons learned, both radargrammetric and geoscientific.

The International Archives of the Photogrammetry,

Remote-sensing methods for monitoring surface coal mining in the northern Great Plains

Recent studies at a large surface coal mine in southern Montana confirm that remote sensing is both feasible and effective for gathering land-use and environmental data (spatial, dynamic, and seasonal) for large-scale surface mines in the northern Great Plains. The Western Energy Co.'s Rosebud mine near Colstrip, Mont., was selected as a test site because it typifies surface operations in the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming and elsewhere in the northern Great Plains. Several basic interpretive and analytical remote-sensing techniques were used to identify and delineate various categories of surface-mining operations and concurrent stages of reclamation that characterize most, if not all, such mining operations. Color infrared and black-and-white aerial photographs and a black-and-white band 5 Landsat image were used to identify (1) high wall and bench areas, (2) ungraded spoils, (3) graded and recontoured areas, (4) revegetated recontoured areas, (5) natural and impounded surface water, and (6) miscellaneous areas. Over the lifespan of an extensive surface mine, cultural and natural processes and cumulative environmental effects can be monitored by capitalizing on the close correlation between enhanced satellite imagery, infrared and (or) black-and-white aerial photography, standard large-scale topographic maps (such as U.S. Geological Survey 7½-minute quadrangle maps), and results of onsite inspection of mining and reclamation by Federal or State agencies.

Montana

Examining the effect of physicochemical and meteorological variables on water quality indicators of harmful algal blooms in a shallow hypereutrophic lake using machine learning techniques

Two independent machine learning techniques, boosted regression trees and artificial neural networks, were used to examine the physicochemical and meteorological variables that affect the seasonal growth and decline of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in southern Oregon. High temporal resolution data collected at four monitoring locations were aggregated into daily timesteps to create two response variables: (1) daily maximum pH (pH max ), representing HAB growth, and (2) daily minimum dissolved oxygen (DO min ), representing HAB decline. Predictors included meteorological and physical data, estimates of external phosphorus loading, and previous-year average nutrient concentrations, and excluded HAB biomass and internal phosphorus loading. The predictors that captured seasonal changes in both pH max and DO min were temperature, inflows, lake-surface elevation, and external phosphorus loading, while short-term changes were captured by measures of stratification, temperature, and wind speed. The pH max models had similar fits with leave-one-year-out cross-validation (LOYO-CV) R 2 values of 0.2–0.43 (median = 0.40). The DO min models for the deeper locations had LOYO-CV R 2 values of 0.27–0.43 compared to 0.1–0.25 for the shallower locations. Model performance was affected by variability due to patchiness of HABs, measurement uncertainty, and advection.

Water