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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Effects of volcanic heat and other stressors on the conservation of a critically endangered plant in Hawaiʻi

Loss of local biodiversity resulting from abrupt environmental change is a significant environmental problem throughout the world. Extinctions of plants are particularly important yet are often overlooked. Drawing from a case in Hawai‘i, a global hotspot for plant and other extinctions, we demonstrate an effort to better understand and determine priorities for the management of an endangered plant (‘Ihi makole or Portulaca sclerocarpa ) in the face of rapid and extreme environmental change. Volcanic heat emissions and biological invasions have anecdotally been suggested as possible threats to the species. We integrated P. sclerocarpa outplanting with efforts to collect geological and ecological data to gauge the role of elevated soil temperatures and invasive grasses in driving P. sclerocarpa mortality and population decline. We measured soil temperature, soil depth, surrounding cover and P. sclerocarpa survivorship over three decades. The abundance of wild P. sclerocarpa decreased by 99.7% from the 1990s to 2021. Only 51% of outplantings persisted through 3–4 years. Binomial regression and structural equation modelling revealed that, among the variables we analysed, high soil temperatures were most strongly associated with population decline. Finding the niche where soil temperatures are low enough to allow P. sclerocarpa survival but high enough to limit other agents of P. sclerocarpa mortality may be necessary to increase population growth of this species.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Runoff and water-quality characteristics of three Discovery Farms in North Dakota, 2008–16

Agricultural producers in North Dakota are aware of concerns about degrading water quality, and many of the producers are interested in implementing conservation practices to reduce the export of nutrients from their farms. Producers often implement conservation practices without knowledge of the water quality of the runoff from their farm or if conservation practices they may implement have any effect on water quality. In response to this lack of information, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with North Dakota State University Extension Service and in coordination with an advisory group consisting of State agencies, agricultural producers, and commodity groups, implemented a monitoring study as part of a Discovery Farms program in North Dakota in 2007. Three data-collection sites were established at each of three farms near Underwood, Embden, and Dazey, North Dakota. The purpose of this report is to describe runoff and water-quality characteristics using data collected at the three Discovery Farms during 2008–16. Runoff and water-quality data were used to help describe the implications of agricultural conservation practices on runoff and water-quality patterns. Runoff characteristics of monitoring sites at the three farms were determined by measuring flow volume and precipitation. Runoff at the Underwood farm monitoring sites generally was controlled by precipitation in the area, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and, after 2012, possibly by the diversion ditch constructed by the producer. Most of the annual runoff was in March and April each year during spring snowmelt. Runoff characteristics at the Embden farm are complex because of the mix of surface runoff and flow through two separate drainage tile systems. Annual flow volumes for the drainage tiles sites (sites E2 and E3) were several orders of magnitude greater than measured at the surface water site E1. Site E1 generally only had runoff briefly in March and April during spring snowmelt and during only a few large rain events throughout 2009–16. Flow was somewhat continuous at sites E2 and E3 throughout the year during years of increased precipitation, such as in 2010 and 2011. At Dazey farm, annual flow volumes at the most downstream site D3 for 2010–15 ranged from 88 acre-feet (2012) to 12,060 acre-feet (2010). The largest monthly runoff volumes at D1 (most upstream site; combination of data from site D1a [original site] and site D1b [relocated site]) and D3 were in March and April during spring snowmelt runoff and rain events. At Underwood farm, total ammonia and total phosphorus had the highest concentrations at the most upstream site (U1) and decreased sequentially at sites U2 and U3 downstream. Total ammonia and total phosphorus concentrations at the sites for Underwood farm also generally were higher than measured at sites for the Dazey and Embden farms. At Embden farm, nitrate plus nitrite concentrations were lowest at site E1 (surface-water site) and highest at sites E2 and E3 (drainage tile sites). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations at sites E2 and E3 also were the highest among all the sites at all three farms. Median total nitrate plus nitrite concentrations for sites E1, E2, and E3 were 0.22, 13, and 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, respectively. Nutrient concentrations generally were greater at site D1 (most upstream site) compared to site D3 (most downstream site) at Dazey farm. Higher concentrations at site D1, which is farther upstream and closer to potential sources of nutrients, compared to lower concentrations at site D3, which is farther downstream and receives more runoff, indicates that dilution may be the reason concentrations decrease downstream. Annual loads for chloride at all three Underwood sites were the greatest in 2011 and the least in 2012, which coincided with years of the greatest and least annual flow volume, respectively. Total ammonia had a similar pattern at the three sites. Nitrate plus nitrite loads displayed a different pattern than chloride and total ammonia, indicating possible different sources. Chloride, total ammonia, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment were transported past site U1 mostly in March and the least from July through October. Monthly nitrate plus nitrite loads had a different pattern than the other constituents, indicating other possible sources such as fertilizer application in the surrounding cropland. Annual loads for Embden farm were considerably greater at sites E2 and E3 compared to site E1. Annual yields for all constituents also were substantially greater at sites E2 and E3 compared to site E1, mainly because of a combination of higher flow volumes and small contributing drainage areas at sites E2 and E3 compared to site E1. The greatest annual loads at Dazey farm site D3 for chloride, nitrate plus nitrite, and suspended sediment were in 2010 and 2011, and zero loads were estimated for 2012 because no flow was measured at the site. Mean monthly loads generally were greatest for most constituents in March and April at sites D1 and D3 except for suspended sediment that had the greatest monthly loads in May. To mitigate runoff and water-quality effects of their operations, the producers implemented various agricultural conservation practices before and during the Discovery Farms monitoring. Even though it was difficult to quantify the effects of the agricultural conservation practices implemented at the farms, the data collected from the Discovery Farms program provided a better understanding of some of the variables that affect runoff and water quality.

North Dakota↗
USGS2003

Diagnostic tools for mixing models of stream water chemistry

Mixing models provide a useful null hypothesis against which to evaluate processes controlling stream water chemical data. Because conservative mixing of end‐members with constant concentration is a linear process, a number of simple mathematical and multivariate statistical methods can be applied to this problem. Although mixing models have been most typically used in the context of mixing soil and groundwater end‐members, an extension of the mathematics of mixing models is presented that assesses the “fit” of a multivariate data set to a lower dimensional mixing subspace without the need for explicitly identified end‐members. Diagnostic tools are developed to determine the approximate rank of the data set and to assess lack of fit of the data. This permits identification of processes that violate the assumptions of the mixing model and can suggest the dominant processes controlling stream water chemical variation. These same diagnostic tools can be used to assess the fit of the chemistry of one site into the mixing subspace of a different site, thereby permitting an assessment of the consistency of controlling end‐members across sites. This technique is applied to a number of sites at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed located near Atlanta, Georgia.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1993

Selecting islands and shoals for conservation based on biological and aesthetic criteria

Consideration of biological quality has long been an important component of rating areas for conservation. Often these same areas are highly valued by people for aesthetic reasons, creating demands for housing and recreation that may conflict with protection plans for these habitats. Most methods of selecting land for conservation purposes use biological factors alone. For some land areas, analysis of aesthetic qualities is also important in describing the scenic value of undisturbed land. A method for prioritizing small islands and shoals based on both biological and visual quality factors is presented here. The study included 169 undeveloped islands and shoals a??0.8 ha in the Thousand Islands Region of the St. Lawrence River, New York. Criteria such as critical habitat for uncommon plant and animal species were considered together with visual quality and incorporated into a rating system that ranked the islands and shoals according to their priority for conservation management and protection from development. Biological factors were determined based on previous research and a field survey. Visual quality was determined by visual diagnostic criteria developed from public responses to photographs of a sample of islands. Variables such as elevation, soil depth, and type of plant community can be used to classify islands into different categories of visual quality but are unsuccessful in classifying islands into categories of overall biological quality.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2019

Modeling δ18O as an early indicator of regime shift arising from salinity stress in coastal vegetation

In many important coastal habitats, a combination of increasing soil salinization due to sea level rise, reduced precipitation and storm surges may induce regime shift from salinity-intolerant glycophytic vegetation to salinity-tolerant halophytic species. Early detection of regime shift due to salinity stress in vegetation may facilitate conservation efforts. It has been shown that the 18 O value of water in the xylem of trees can be used as a surrogate for salinity in the rooting zone of plants. Coupling measured δ 18 O values in the tree xylem with simulated δ 18 O values in trees and salinity in the vadose zone can be used to investigate competitive responses of glycophytic versus halophytic trees. MANTRA-O18 simulations suggest that the impacts of salinization on diminishing the resilience of salinity-intolerant trees can be detected up to 25 years before the glycophytic trees are threatened with regime shift to halophytic species. This early detection provides critical lead time and valuable information and insights useful for planning adaptation strategy to mitigate against the adverse impacts of sea level rise and climate change.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2023

Near real-time detection of winter cover crop termination using harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) to support ecosystem assessment

Cover crops are planted to reduce soil erosion, increase soil fertility, and improve watershed management. In the Delmarva Peninsula of the eastern United States, winter cover crops are essential for reducing nutrient and sediment losses from farmland. Cost-share programs have been created to incentivize cover crops to achieve conservation objectives. This program required that cover crops be planted and terminated within a specified time window. Usually, farmers report cover crop termination dates for each enrolled field (∼28,000 per year), and conservation district staff confirm the report with field visits within two weeks of termination. This verification process is labor-intensive and time-consuming and became restricted in 2020–2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS, version 2.0) time-series data and the within-season termination (WIST) algorithm to detect cover crop termination dates over Maryland and the Delmarva Peninsula. The estimated remote sensing termination dates were compared to roadside surveys and to farmer-reported termination dates from the Maryland Department of Agriculture database for the 2020–2021 cover crop season. The results show that the WIST algorithm using HLS detected 94% of terminations (statuses) for the enrolled fields (n = 28,190). Among the detected terminations, about 49%, 72%, 84%, and 90% of remote sensing detected termination dates were within one, two, three, and four weeks of agreement to farmer-reported dates, respectively. A real-time simulation showed that the termination dates could be detected one week after termination operation using routinely available HLS data, and termination dates detected after mid-May are more reliable than those from early spring when the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was low. We conclude that HLS imagery and the WIST algorithm provide a fast and consistent approach for generating near-real-time cover crop termination maps over large areas, which can be used to support cost-share program verification.

Maryland↗
USGS2015

Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14 C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

Nevada↗
USGS2009

Physical, Chemical, Ecological, and Age Data and Trench Logs from Surficial Deposits at Hatch Point, Southeastern Utah

This report presents data and describes the methodology for physical, chemical and ecological measurements of sediment, soil, and vegetation, as well as age determinations of surficial deposits at Hatch Point, Canyon Rims area, Colorado Plateau, southeastern Utah. The results presented in this report support a study that examines geomorphic and soil factors that may influence boundaries between shrubland and grassland ecosystems in the study area. Shrubland ecosystems dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and grassland ecosystems dominated by native perennial grasses (for example, Hilaria jamesii and Sporabolis sp.) are high-priority conservation targets for the Federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and other resource managers because of their diversity, productivity, and vital importance as wildlife habitat. These ecosystems have been recognized as imperiled on a regional scale since at least the mid-1990s due to habitat loss (type conversions), land-use practices, and invasive exotic plants. In the Intermountain West, the exotic annual cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is recognized as one of the most pervasive and serious threats to the health of native sagebrush and grassland ecosystems through effects on fire regimes and resource conditions experienced by native species.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Projecting the remaining habitat for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii) in heavily urbanized southern California

Extensive urbanization in coastal southern California has reduced natural habitat in this biodiversity hotspot. To better conserve ecological communities, state and federal agencies, along with local jurisdictions and private stakeholders, developed regional conservation plans for southern California. Although many protected areas exist within this region, the patchwork nature of these protected areas might not provide good coverage for species that require multiple habitat components, such as amphibians with complex life histories. Because of declines in the past century, the status of the western spadefoot ( Spea hammondii ) in southern California is of concern to state and federal wildlife agencies. Species distribution models (SDMs) can aid in determining the conservation status of imperiled species by projecting where suitable habitat remains and how much is protected from further development. We built SDMs that integrated site-occupancy data from systematic pitfall trapping surveys and presence-only data from biodiversity databases and citizen science platforms to project the current distribution of western spadefoots in southern California. Western spadefoot occurrence was positively related to the cover of grassland or shrub/scrub and the % sand in the soil within a 1000 m buffer, and was negatively related to slope, elevation, and distance to ephemeral streams or vernal pools . Most of the remaining unprotected habitat for western spadefoots is in the southern half of its historical range in western San Diego and Riverside counties. A few large tracts of spadefoot habitat exist on U.S. Department of Defense lands and smaller tracts remain on ecological reserves owned by state and local government agencies. Only small patches of habitat remain in the northern half of this clade’s historical range in Ventura, Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties. Existing regional conservation plans provide ostensible spatial coverage of the majority of extant habitat for western spadefoots in southern California, but most of the habitat within the jurisdiction of these plans lacks formal protection, exposing this species to further declines as urbanization continues in the 21st century.

California↗
USGS2020

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

North America↗
USGS2023

Plants as vectors for environmental prion transmission

Prions cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases and exhibit remarkable durability, which engenders a wide array of potential exposure scenarios. In chronic wasting disease of deer, elk, moose, and reindeer and in scrapie of sheep and goats, prions are transmitted via environmental routes and the ability of plants to accumulate and subsequently transmit prions has been hypothesized, but not previously demonstrated. Here, we establish the ability of several crop and other plant species to take up prions via their roots and translocate them to above-ground tissues from various growth media including soils. We demonstrate that plants can accumulate prions in above-ground tissues to levels sufficient to transmit disease after oral ingestion by mice. Our results suggest plants may serve as vectors for prion transmission in the environment—a finding with implications for wildlife conservation, agriculture, and public health.

iScience↗
USGS2003

Estimates of global cyanobacterial biomass and its distribution

We estimated global cyanobacterial biomass in the main reservoirs of cyanobacteria on Earth: marine and freshwater plankton, arid land soil crusts, and endoliths. Estimates were based on typical population density values as measured during our research, or as obtained from literature surveys, which were then coupled with data on global geographical area coverage. Among the marine plankton, the global biomass of Prochlorococcus reaches 120 × 10 12 grams of carbon (g C), and that of Synechoccus some 43 × 10 12 g C. This makes Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus , in that order, the most abundant cyanobacteria on Earth. Tropical marine blooms of Trichodesmium account for an additional 10 × 10 12 g C worldwide. In terrestrial environments, the mass of cyanobacteria in arid land soil crusts is estimated to reach 54 × 10 12 g C and that of arid land endolithic communities an additional 14 × 10 12 g C. The global biomass of planktic cyanobacteria in lakes is estimated to be around 3 × 10 12 g C. Our conservative estimates, which did not include some potentially significant biomass reservoirs such as polar and subarctic areas, topsoils in subhumid climates, and shallow marine and freshwater benthos, indicate that the total global cyanobacterial biomass is in the order of 3 × 10 14 g C, surpassing a thousand million metric tons (10 15 g) of wet biomass.

Algological Studies↗
USGS2001

Geologic map of the Saint Joseph area, Missouri and Kansas

This map was prepared as a collaborative effort with the Missouri Division of Geology and Land Survey, the Kansas Geological Survey, and the Nebraska Conservation and Survey Division. Map units and preliminary contacts between units were identified using stereoscopic pairs of high altitude, false color infrared, aerial photographs. Contacts were drawn on twelve USGS 7.5-minute topographic maps, and were checked in the field. U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Survey maps at a scale of 1:62,500 for Buchanan County, Andrew County, Platte County, and Doniphan County were used to provide a general overview of the soils of the area. A U.S. Geological Survey map at a scale of 1:24,000 showing the geohydrology of Doniphan County, Kansas; soil surveys at a scale of 1:24,000 for Buchanan County, Andrew County, and Platte County; and soil survey at a scale of 1:20,000 for Doniphan were used to corroborate map contacts and field observations.

Kansas, Missouri↗
USGS2017

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2011

Ecological influence and pathways of land use in sagebrush

Land use in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes influences all sage-grouse (Centrocer-cus spp.) populations in western North America. Croplands and the network of irrigation canals cover 230,000 km2 and indirectly influence up to 77% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 73% of sagebrush land cover by subsidizing synanthropic predators on sage-grouse. Urbanization and the demands of human population growth have created an extensive network of con-necting infrastructure that is expanding its influence on sagebrush landscapes. Over 2,500 km 2 are now covered by interstate highways and paved roads; when secondary roads are included, 15% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 5% of existing sagebrush habitats are 2.5 km from roads. Density of secondary roads often exceeds 5 km/km 2 , resulting in widespread motorized access for recreation, creating extensive travel corridors for management actions and resource development, subsidizing predators adapted to human presence, and facilitating spread of exotic or invasive plants. Sagebrush lands also are being used for their wilderness and recreation values, including off highway vehicle use. Approximately 12,000,000 animal use months (AUM amount of forage to support one livestock unit per month) are permitted for grazing livestock on public lands in the western states. Direct effects of grazing on sage-grouse populations or sagebrush landscapes are not possible to assess from current data. However, management of lands grazed by livestock has influenced sagebrush ecosystems by vegetation treatments to increase forage and reduce sagebrush and other plant species unpalatable to livestock. Fences (2 km/km 2 in some regions), roads, and water developments to manage livestock movements further modify the landscape. Oil and gas development influences 8% of the sagebrush habitats with the highest intensities occurring in the eastern range of sage-grouse; 20% of the sagebrush distribution is indirectly influenced in the Great Plains, Wyoming Basin, and Colorado Plateau SMZs. Energy development physically removes habitat to construct well pads, roads, power lines, and pipelines; indirect effects include habitat fragmentation, soil disturbance, and facilitation of exotic plant and animal spread. More recent development of alternative energy, such as wind and geothermal, creates infrastructure in new regions of the sage-grouse distribution. Land use will continue to be a dominant stressor on sage-brush systems; its individual and cumulative effects will challenge long-term conservation of sage-grouse populations.

Book chapter↗
USGS2021

The Mount Hood fault zone, active faulting at the crest of the dynamic Cascade Range, north-central Oregon, USA

The Mount Hood fault zone is a N-trending, ~55-km-long zone of active faulting along the western margin of the Hood River graben in north-central Oregon. The Mount Hood fault zone occurs along the crest of the Cascade Range and consists of multiple active fault segments. It is presently unclear how much Hood River graben extension is actively accommodated on the fault zone, and how Cascade intra-arc extension accommodates regional patterns of clockwise rotation and northwest translation of crustal blocks in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Evidence for Holocene activity on the Mount Hood fault zone was discovered in 2009 after acquisition of high-resolution lidar topography of the area. This trip will visit sites displaying evidence of Holocene surface rupture on fault strands within the Mount Hood fault zone. Day 1 starts with a two-hour drive from Portland to Mount Hood, a 3429-m-high glaciated active volcano, where we will visit sites south of the summit along the Twin Lakes fault segment, including several fault scarps and two sites where dating of offset buried soils constrains the timing of the most recent surface-rupturing event to the Holocene. Day 1 includes two hikes of ~1 km and will be partly cross-country. The trip will overnight at the historic Timberline Lodge, an architectural masterpiece from the Civilian Conservation Corps (1933–1942) era, located at tree line on the southern flank of Mount Hood. Day 2 will visit sites north of the summit, stopping along the Blue Ridge fault segment to view the site of 2011 paleoseismic trenches and an offset glacial moraine. We will visit an unusual uphill-facing scarp in coarse talus along the Gate Creek fault segment near the north end of the Mount Hood fault zone. We will conclude Day 2 with a short hike into the Mark O. Hatfield Wilderness along the Gate Creek fault segment to view evidence of a surface-rupturing earthquake that occurred only a few centuries ago, illuminated by a nearby paleoseismic trench hand-dug in 2020. Our neotectonic and paleoseismic data are among the first efforts to document and characterize seismic sources within the Mount Hood fault zone. However, even with our new age data, fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence remain poorly constrained. With our limited earthquake timing data, it is not clear whether all segments of the Mount Hood fault zone rupture together as a ≥ M 7 earthquake, or alternatively, if the fault segments rupture independently in a sequence of smaller ~M 6–sized events.

Oregon↗
USGS2002

Consistency of patterns in concentration‐discharge plots

Concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) plots have been used to infer how flow components such as event water, soil water, and groundwater mix to produce the observed episodic hydrochemical response of small catchments. Because c‐Q plots are based only on observed streamflow and solute concentration, their interpretation requires assumptions about the relative volume, hydrograph timing, and solute concentration of the streamflow end‐members. Evans and Davies [1998] present a taxonomy of c‐Q loops resulting from three‐component conservative mixing. Their analysis, based on a fixed template of end‐member hydrograph volume, timing, and concentration, suggests a unique relationship between c‐Q loop form and the rank order of end‐member concentrations. Many catchments exhibit variability in component contributions to storm flow in response to antecedent conditions or rainfall characteristics, but the effects of such variation on c‐Q relationships have not been studied systematically. Starting with a “baseline” condition similar to that assumed by Evans and Davies [1998] , we use a simple computer model to characterize the variability in c‐Q plot patterns resulting from variation in end‐member volume, timing, and solute concentration. Variability in these three factors can result in more than one c‐Q loop shape for a given rank order of end‐member solute concentrations. The number of resulting hysteresis patterns and their relative frequency depends on the rank order of solute concentrations and on their separation in absolute value. In ambiguous cases the c‐Q loop shape is determined by the relative “prominence” of the event water versus soil water components. This “prominence” is broadly defined as a capacity to influence the total streamflow concentration and may result from a combination of end‐member volume, timing, or concentration. The modeling results indicate that plausible hydrological variability in field situations can confound the interpretation of c‐Q plots, even when fundamental end‐member mixing assumptions are satisfied.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2025

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗