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NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards

Ungulate migrations of the western United States, volume 2

Migration is widespread across taxonomic groups and increasingly recognized as fundamental to maintaining abundant wildlife populations and communities. Many ungulate herds migrate across the western United States to access food and avoid harsh environmental conditions. With the advent of global positioning system (GPS) collars, researchers can describe and map the year-round movements of ungulates at both large and small spatial scales. The migrations can traverse landscapes that are a mix of different jurisdictional ownership and management. Today, the landscapes migrating herds traverse are increasingly threatened by fencing, high-traffic roads, oil and gas development, and other types of permanent development. Through the use of GPS collars, a model of science-based conservation emerged in which migration corridors, stopovers, and winter ranges can be mapped in detail, thereby allowing threats and conservation opportunities to be identified and remedied. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assembled a Corridor Mapping Team (CMT) to work collaboratively with western states to map migrations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer), Cervus canadensis (elk), and Antilocapra americana (pronghorn). Led by the USGS Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, the team consists of Federal scientists, university researchers, and biologists and analysts from participating State and Tribal agencies. The first set of maps described a total of 42 migrations across 5 western states and was published in 2020 as the first volume of this report series. This second volume describes an additional 65 migrations mapped within 9 western states and select Tribal lands. As the western United States continues to grow, this report series and the associated map files released by the USGS will allow for migration maps to be used for conservation planning by a wide array of State and Federal stakeholders to reduce barriers to migration caused by fences, roads, and other development.

western United States

Coastal Prairie Restoration Information System: Version 1 (Louisiana)

The Coastal Prairie Restoration Information System (CPR) is a Microsoft Access database that allows users to query and view data about Louisiana coastal prairie species. Less than 0.1% of Louisiana's coastal prairie vegetation remains in a relatively undisturbed condition. Encompassing as much as 1 million hectares of land, coastal prairie is a hybrid of coastal wetlands and tall grass prairie. Over 550 plant species have been identified in Louisiana's coastal prairies to date. Efforts to conserve and restore this endangered ecosystem are limited by the ability of workers to identify and access knowledge about this diverse group of plants. In this database, a variety of data are provided for each of 650 coastal prairie species in Louisiana. The database was developed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center by Larry Allain, with software development by Myra Silva. Additional funding was provided by the biology department of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (ULL), the ULL Center for Environmental and Ecological Technology, and the National Science Foundation.

Data Series

Integrated Science: Florida Manatees and Everglades Hydrology

Predicting and monitoring restoration effects on Florida manatees, which are known to make extended movements, will be incomplete if modeling and monitoring are limited to the smaller areas defined by the various res-toration components. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) efforts, thus far, have focused on (1) collecting manatee movement data throughout the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) region, and (2) developing an individual-based model for manatees to illustrate manatee responses to changes in hydrology related to the Picayune Strand Restoration Project (PSRP). In 2006, new regional research was begun to extend an Everglades hydrology model into the TTI region; extend the manatee movement model into the southern estuaries of Everglades National Park (ENP); and integrate hydrology and manatee data, models, and monitoring across the TTI region and ENP. Currently (2008), three research tasks are underway to develop the necessary modeling components to assess restoration efforts across the Greater Everglades Ecosystem.

Fact Sheet

Snake fungal disease in North America: U.S. Geological Survey updates

Snake fungal disease (SFD) results from a skin infection that has been documented only in snakes. Historically, reports of snakes with skin infections of unknown origin have been sporadic. Recently, the number of reported cases of skin infections in snakes has increased substantially. This emerging infectious disease, confirmed in numerous species of snakes, is caused by the fungus Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola . As of August 2017, O. ophiodiicola has been detected in at least 23 States and one Canadian Province. However, researchers suspect that SFD may be more widely distributed than these documented cases suggest, because efforts to monitor the health of many snake populations are limited. Snake fungal disease may also be underreported in populations where it affects snakes infrequently or in species that develop less severe illness. Signs of SFD include crusted or ulcerated scales, nodules (that is, abnormal bumps) under the skin, and facial disfiguration that can be quite severe, leading to emaciation and death. Many snake populations are already in decline due to habitat loss and dwindling prey populations, and the recent emergence of SFD may accelerate this decline, causing certain species to disappear entirely from some locations.

Fact Sheet

Cooperative activities of the U.S. Geological Survey with Historically Black Colleges and Universities, fiscal years 1983-90

The U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, has been involved in numerous cooperative activities with Historically Black Colleges and Universities. Assistance agreements, which include both grants and cooperative agreements, have fostered many educational research and development activities. These activities have included site visits, employment opportunities, curriculum development, seminars, and research projects. The activities are consistent with the Geological Survey's mission of conducting earth-science research and dissemination of the results. The cooperative have benefitted the Historically Black Colleges and Universities, their students, and the Geological Survey.

Open-File Report

Data Model and Relational Database Design for Highway Runoff Water-Quality Metadata

A National highway and urban runoff waterquality metadatabase was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration as part of the National Highway Runoff Water-Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis (NDAMS). The database was designed to catalog available literature and to document results of the synthesis in a format that would facilitate current and future research on highway and urban runoff. This report documents the design and implementation of the NDAMS relational database, which was designed to provide a catalog of available information and the results of an assessment of the available data. All the citations and the metadata collected during the review process are presented in a stratified metadatabase that contains citations for relevant publications, abstracts (or previa), and reportreview metadata for a sample of selected reports that document results of runoff quality investigations. The database is referred to as a metadatabase because it contains information about available data sets rather than a record of the original data. The database contains the metadata needed to evaluate and characterize how valid, current, complete, comparable, and technically defensible published and available information may be when evaluated for application to the different dataquality objectives as defined by decision makers. This database is a relational database, in that all information is ultimately linked to a given citation in the catalog of available reports. The main database file contains 86 tables consisting of 29 data tables, 11 association tables, and 46 domain tables. The data tables all link to a particular citation, and each data table is focused on one aspect of the information collected in the literature search and the evaluation of available information. This database is implemented in the Microsoft (MS) Access database software because it is widely used within and outside of government and is familiar to many existing and potential customers. The stratified metadatabase design for the NDAMS program is presented in the MS Access file DBDESIGN.mdb and documented with a data dictionary in the NDAMS_DD.mdb file recorded on the CD-ROM. The data dictionary file includes complete documentation of the table names, table descriptions, and information about each of the 419 fields in the database.

Open-File Report

Compilation of gallium resource data for bauxite deposits

Gallium (Ga) concentrations for bauxite deposits worldwide have been compiled from the literature to provide a basis for research regarding the occurrence and distribution of Ga worldwide, as well as between types of bauxite deposits. In addition, this report is an attempt to bring together reported Ga concentration data into one database to supplement ongoing U.S. Geological Survey studies of critical mineral resources. The compilation of Ga data consists of location, deposit size, bauxite type and host rock, development status, major oxide data, trace element (Ga) data and analytical method(s) used to derive the data, and tonnage values for deposits within bauxite provinces and districts worldwide. The range in Ga concentrations for bauxite deposits worldwide is <10 to 812 parts per million (ppm), with an average of 57 ppm. Gallium concentrations in lateritic bauxites range from below detection (< 8 ppm) to 146 ppm; the average concentration is 57 ppm Ga. The average Ga concentration for karst bauxite deposits is 58 ppm with a range between <10 to 180 ppm Ga. As a result, there are no substantial differences in gallium concentrations between karst- and laterite-type bauxites. We calculate the range in geologically available Ga in bauxite deposits worldwide between 30 and 82,720 metric tons (t), with an average of 14,909 t.

Open-File Report

Core Science Systems—Mission overview

The Core Science Systems Mission Area delivers nationally focused Earth systems and information science that provides fundamental research and data that underpins all Mission Areas of the USGS, the USGS Science Strategy, and Presidential, Secretarial, and societal priorities. — Kevin T. Gallagher, Associate Director, Core Science Systems The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Core Science Systems (CSS) Mission Area spans the Earth's "Critical Zone" (National Research Council, 2001). The Critical Zone is the near-surface interface that extends from the tops of the trees down to the base of the deepest groundwater. CSS provides a foundation for all USGS Mission Areas, as well as for the mission of the Department of the Interior (DOI), in the following ways: Conducts basic and applied science research and development Fosters broad understanding and application of analyses and information Provides a framework for data and information sharing Creates new geospatially enabled data and information Provides technical expertise in standards and methods Builds and facilitates partnerships and innovation

Fact Sheet

Changing Arctic ecosystems: ecology of loons in a changing Arctic

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a changing climate. From 2010 to 2014, a key study area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced rapid warming during the past 30 years, leading to the thawing of permafrost and changes to lake and river systems. These changes, and projections of continued change, have raised questions about effects on wildlife populations that rely on northern lake ecosystems, such as loons. Loons rely on freshwater lakes for nesting habitat and the fish and invertebrates inhabiting the lakes for food. Loons live within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) on Alaska’s northern coast, where oil and gas development is expected to increase. Research by the USGS examines how breeding loons use the Arctic lake ecosystem and the capacity of loons to adapt to future landscape change.

Alaska

South Florida Everglades: satellite image map

These satellite image maps are one product of the USGS Land Characteristics from Remote Sensing project, funded through the USGS Place-Based Studies Program (http://access.usgs.gov/) with support from the Everglades National Park (http://www.nps.gov/ever/). The objective of this project is to develop and apply innovative remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to map the distribution of vegetation, vegetation characteristics, and related hydrologic variables through space and over time. The mapping and description of vegetation characteristics and their variations are necessary to accurately simulate surface hydrology and other surface processes in South Florida and to monitor land surface changes. As part of this research, data from many airborne and satellite imaging systems have been georeferenced and processed to facilitate data fusion and analysis. These image maps were created using image fusion techniques developed as part of this project.

IMAP

Red Knot ( Calidris canutus ) research—Preliminary results and future opportunities

The Red Knot, Calidris canutus , is a highly migratory shorebird with a cosmopolitan distribution. Six subspecies have been identified, two of which occur regularly in North America ( C.c. rufa and C.c. roselaari ). Given their long-distance migrations through many jurisdictions and conservation status, tools are needed to reliably distinguish the subspecies when captured away from their breeding areas and to examine potential population substructure within each taxa. We used a suite of molecular approaches to develop tools to support Red Knot research and management. Although our microsatellite markers were not able to reliably distinguish C.c. rufa and C.c. roselaari , we did find evidence of population substructure within C.c. rufa .

Open-File Report

Informal and formal trail monitoring protocols and baseline conditions: Acadia National Park

At Acadia National Park, changing visitor use levels and patterns have contributed to an increasing degree of visitor use impacts to natural and cultural resources. To better understand the extent and severity of these resource impacts and identify effective management techniques, the park sponsored this research to develop monitoring protocols, collect baseline data, and identify suggestions for management strategies. Formal and informal trails were surveyed and their resource conditions were assessed and characterized to support park planning and management decision-making.

Report

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon

Extreme coastal water level in Washington state: Guidance to support sea level rise planning

This document provides guidelines for assessing exposure to future coastal flooding during extreme coastal water level events – whether these are due to tides, surge, wave run-up, or, more likely, a combination of the three. These guidelines provide information about the current and future magnitude of extreme coastal water levels across Washington State and the underlying processes that influence them. This information is intended to be combined with sea level projections to assess future exposure to coastal flooding along Washington’s coastline. Although the results of our analyses can be combined with any available sea level projections, this report is intended as a companion to the localized sea level rise projections (Miller et al., 2018) developed as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project was a three-year effort to rapidly increase the state’s capacity to prepare for sea level rise. The project aimed to improve risk projections, provide better guidelines for land use planners and strengthen capital investment programs for coastal restoration and infrastructure. Partners in the Washington Coastal Resilience Project included Washington Sea Grant, Washington Department of Ecology, Island County, King County, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve, The City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Oregon, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Western Washington University. The 2018 sea level projections are described in an accompanying technical report, along with a review of the science related to sea level rise (Miller et al., 2018). The report and all associated supporting information are available on the Washington Coastal Hazards Resilience Network website (http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/).

Washington

Man-made earthquakes and earthquake prediction

Convincing evidence that man can trigger earthquakes has been developed since the 1963–1967 report. The fact that man can start earthquakes has increased our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and reinforced our judgment that we are approaching the possibility of earthquake prediction. Traditionally, seismologists have avoided the subject of earthquake prediction because of its distasteful association with people who claim to be able to predict earthquakes by mystical nonscientific methods. Research on prediction has been intensified since the reports of the Panel on Earthquake Prediction [ Press , 1965] and the Interagency Working Group for Earthquake Research [ Pecora , 1968],. however, and it is appropriate to assess our progress toward that goal. Pakiser et al . [1969] and Oliver [1970] have also summarized recent U.S. progress toward earthquake prediction.

Eos Science News

Groundwater availability study for Guam; goals, approach, products, and schedule of activities

An expected significant population increase on Guam has raised concern about the sustainability of groundwater resources. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the University of Guam's Water and Environmental Research Institute of the Western Pacific (WERI) and with funding from the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), is conducting a 3.5-year study to advance understanding of regional groundwater dynamics in the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer, provide a new estimate of groundwater recharge, and develop a numerical groundwater flow and transport model for northern Guam. Results of the study, including two USGS reports and a well database, will provide more reliable evaluations of the potential effects of groundwater production and help guide sustainable management of this critical resource.

Fact Sheet

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Alaska

Alaska has enormous surface-water resources, but many of the streams are frozen for most of the year and most contain glacial silt that makes them unacceptable for human use. These factors lend special significance to ground water as a water-supply source, even though perennially frozen ground (permafrost) profoundly modifies ground-water flow systems in much of Alaska north of the maritime southern coast and southeastern panhandle areas. Frozen ground is a virtually impermeable layer that restricts recharge, discharge, and movement of ground water, acts as a confining layer and limits the volume of unconsolidated deposits and bedrock in which water may be stored. Ground water is an untested resource in most of Alaska, but in many areas potential development of ground water far exceeds current use. Alluvium of major river valleys, such as the Yukon, Tanana, Kuskokwim and Susitna Rivers, probably contains the most extensive aquifers in the State. Large amounts of ground water are also stored in glacial outwash aquifers that underlie coastal basins and valleys, such as those at Kenai and Anchorage in the Cook Inlet lowland. Individual wells yielding more than 1,000 gallons per minute have been developed in the Tanana River valley, Cook Inlet lowland, and the coastal valleys at Seward and Juneau. Comparable yields should be possible in other areas that have similar geohydrologic environments. No major aquifers have been identified in glacial and glaciolacustrine deposits of interior valleys or in deltaic deposits. Major bedrock aquifers have been identified only in carbonate rocks of the Brooks Range and on the north side of the Alaska Range. Springs issuing from the carbonate rocks of the Brooks Range have discharges as great as 16,000 gallons per minute. Most ground-water recharge occurs beneath reaches of stream channels that are losing flow to the ground-water system. Most ground-water discharge also takes place along reaches of stream channels. This discharge augments streamflows during summer and maintains low flows during winter when there is no surface-water runoff. On the basis of a streamflow hydrograph separation technique and using the 60 percent flow-duration value as an indicator of ground-water discharge, it is estimated that 25 percent of the total volume of streamflow in Alaska (exclusive of coastal, maritime environments) is contributed by ground-water discharge. The thawing of frozen ground in the permafrost regions of Alaska causes construction and engineering problems. Disturbance of the ground surface disrupts the natural thermal equilibrium and tends to thaw part of the permafrost. Thawing can cause loss of strength, a decrease in volume, and an increase in erosion potential, particularly if the frozen ground is fine grained and poorly drained. Present deficiencies in the ground-water information base are obvious limiting factors to ground-water development in Alaska. There is a need to extend the ground-water data-collection network and to pursue special research into the quantitative aspects of ground-water hydrology in cold regions, particularly the continuous permafrost zone.

Alaska