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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO 2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO 2 emissions. Initial response plans developed by county and state agencies in response to the volcanic unrest began with “The Mono County Volcano Contingency Plan” and “Plan Caldera” by the California Office of Emergency Services in 1982–84. They subsequently became integrated in the regularly updated County Emergency Operation Plan. The alert level system employed by the USGS also evolved from the three-level “Notice-Watch-Warning” system of the early 1980s through a five level color-code to the current “Normal-Advisory-Watch-Warning” ground-based system in conjunction with the international 4-level aviation color-code for volcanic ash hazards. Field trips led by the scientists proved to be a particularly effective means of acquainting local residents and officials with the geologically active environment in which they reside. Relative caldera quiescence from 2000 through 2011 required continued efforts to remind an evolving population that the hazards posed by the 1980–2000 unrest persisted. Renewed uplift of the resurgent dome from 2011 to 2014 was accompanied by an increase in low-level earthquake activity in the caldera and beneath Mammoth Mountain and continues through May 2016. As unrest levels continue to wax and wane, so will the communication challenges.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Latitudinal gradients and sex differences in morphology of the Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani)

Environment and behavior are widely understood to affect bird morphology, which can lead to differences among subspecies or populations within a wide-ranging species. Several patterns of latitudinal gradients in morphology have been described, though Allen's and Bergmann's rules are the most well-known and have been tested and confirmed across a diversity of taxa and species. These state that individuals at higher latitudes will have larger bodies (Bergmann's Rule) but smaller extremities (Allen's Rule) to conserve heat in colder climates. Migratory behavior also can influence avian morphology, particularly wing shape, where migratory birds tend to have longer, more pointed wings than residents. The Black Oystercatcher ( Haematopus bachmani ) is a large, partially migratory shorebird species restricted to intertidal habitats and distributed from Alaska to Baja California, spanning about 35° of latitude. A large proportion of Black Oystercatchers that breed in Alaska are migratory, where nearly all individuals breeding in British Columbia through the southern end of their range remain resident through the annual cycle. Their broad latitudinal range and diversity in migratory behavior may drive geographic variation in morphology. Here we evaluate three explanations for geographic variation in morphology of the Black Oystercatcher using data from seven sites across two regions: Alaska and British Columbia. We found evidence consistent with Allen's but not Bergmann's rule; birds in Alaska have shorter bills than those in British Columbia, and these findings held when controlling for body size using wing length. Despite regional differences in migratory behavior, we detected no difference in the wing shape of birds in Alaska and British Columbia. Differences between sexes and among sites suggest that multiple factors drive patterns of morphological variation in the Black Oystercatcher.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Wildfires as an ecosystem service

Wildfires are often viewed as destructive disturbances. We propose that when including both evolutionary and socioecological scales, most ecosystem fires can be understood as natural processes that provide a variety of benefits to humankind. Wildfires provide open habitats that enable the evolution of a diversity of shade-intolerant plants and animals that have long been used by humans. There are many provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that we obtain from wildfires; prescribed fires and wildfire management are tools for mimicking the ancestral role of wildfires in a highly populated world.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2014

Roads influence movement and home ranges of a fragmentation-sensitive carnivore, the bobcat, in an urban landscape

Roads in urbanized areas can impact carnivore populations by constraining their movements and increasing mortality. Bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) are felids capable of living in urban environments, but are sensitive to habitat fragmentation and, thus, useful indicators of landscape connectivity; in particular, bobcat habitat selection, movement, and mortality may be affected by roads. We analyzed movement patterns of 52 bobcats in southern California in three study sites and investigated: (1) how bobcats responded to two types of roads within their home ranges; (2) how they placed their home ranges with respect to roads within the study area; and (3) whether male and female bobcats differed in their behavioral responses to roads. Within home ranges, primary and secondary roads did not influence movements, but bobcats more frequently crossed secondary roads when road densities were higher within their home ranges, thus increasing mortality risk. However, road densities within each study site were several times higher than road densities within home ranges, suggesting bobcats selected against roaded areas in home-range placement. Male home ranges bordering roads were smaller than home ranges for other males, but male home ranges containing roads were larger than those without roads. Male bobcats also were more likely to cross roads than females, potentially reflecting larger male home range sizes. Our results suggest roads have important impacts on urban bobcats, with stronger effects on males than females, and continued efforts to mitigate the effects of roads on carnivores and other fragmentation-sensitive species would help promote connectivity conservation in urban systems.

California↗
USGS2022

Amphibian mucus triggers a developmental transition in the frog-killing chytrid fungus

The frog-killing chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is decimating amphibian populations around the world. Bd has a biphasic life cycle, alternating between motile zoospores that disperse within aquatic environments and sessile sporangia that grow within the mucus-coated skin of amphibians. Zoospores lack cell walls and swim rapidly through aquatic environments using a posterior flagellum and crawl across solid surfaces using actin structures similar to those of human cells. Bd transitions from this motile dispersal form to its reproductive form by absorbing its flagellum, rearranging its actin cytoskeleton, and rapidly building a chitin-based cell wall—a process called “encystation.” The resulting sporangium increases in volume by two or three orders of magnitude while undergoing rounds of mitosis without cytokinesis to form a large ceonocyte. The sporangium then cellurizes by dividing its cytoplasm into dozens of new zoospores. After exiting the sporangium through a discharge tube onto the amphibian skin, daughter zoospores can then reinfect the same individual or find a new host. Although encystation is critical to Bd growth, whether and how this developmental transition is triggered by external signals was previously unknown. We discovered that exposure to amphibian mucus triggers rapid and reproducible encystation within minutes. This response can be recapitulated with purified mucin, the bulk component of mucus, but not by similarly viscous methylcellulose or simple sugars. Mucin-induced encystation does not require gene expression but does require surface adhesion, calcium signaling, and modulation of the actin cytoskeleton. Mucus-induced encystation may represent a key mechanism for synchronizing Bd development with the arrival at the host.

Current Biology↗
USGS2011

Coastal sedimentary research examines critical issues of national and global priority

An international conference was held recently in Honolulu, Hawaii, to examine and plan for coastal sedimentary research in the United States and globally. Participants agreed that sedimentary coastal environments constitute a critical national and global resource that suffers widespread degradation due to human impacts. Moreover, human population growth and inappropriate development in the coastal zone are escalating public asset losses due to coastal hazards and placing large numbers of communities at growing risk (Figure 1).

Hawai'i↗
USGS2019

Annual winter water level drawdowns limit shallow-water mussel densities in small lakes

Regulated water level fluctuations alter the physical, chemical, and biological environments in lakes. However, few studies have measured the effects of repeated annual winter drawdowns on freshwater mussel populations (Bivalvia: Unionida), and it is unknown whether drawdowns permanently constrain mussel populations to deeper depths or are resilient to the annual disturbance. We quantified mussel densities during normal water levels and their mortality after the initiation of drawdown in lakes with annual winter (December–March) water level drawdown regimes that have existed for several decades. We used systematic quadrat sampling and visual snorkel surveys to estimate the number of live mussels at the surface and buried, and shell length in six drawdown and three control lakes at exposed (0.5-m) and unexposed (1-m) depths during winter drawdown. We also estimated mortality of mussels along the exposed lakebed for nine drawdown lakes. Study lakes were dominated by Elliptio complanata and Pyganodon cataracta . During normal water levels, mussel densities were much lower in drawdown lakes than control lakes at 0.5-m depths. When mussels were present in drawdown lakes at 0.5-m depths, they were often burrowed in the substrate and smaller than buried mussels in control lakes. At unexposed 1-m depths, mussel densities were primarily explained by geographic region (western versus central Massachusetts), and found higher densities in drawdown lakes compared to control lakes. Mussel mortality after a single drawdown event in nine drawdown lakes was not correlated with drawdown magnitude or rate. Concordance of shell length-frequency distributions between dead and buried living mussels in drawdown lakes suggests annual mortality of colonising individuals, which are typically small and presumably of young cohorts. Annual winter drawdowns still limit densities of E. complanata and P. cataracta in shallow-water habitats in the following autumn (September–October) after 4–5 months of potential recovery, and hence constrain their distribution in lakes exposed to drawdowns. The development of sustainable water level management practices will be essential to minimise impacts to native mussel populations.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2007

Iteroparity in the variable environment of the salamander Ambystoma tigrinum

Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture–recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum ) and used multistate mark–recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.

Virginia↗
USGS2014

Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, net calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14°C and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml· l−1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS1996

Concordance of seabird population parameters: Analytical methods and interpretation

In an ecological context, concordance may be defined as the tendency for paired values of some parameter, such as the annual productivity of bird species, to show similar directions and magnitudes of deviation from the mean. Where concordance among populations is high, there is an implied similarity of the ecological factors affecting performance. Conversely, if populations behave discordantly, dissimilarity of underlying ecological factors is likely. In evaluating birds as indicators of the marine environment, the biologist typically is confronted with a three-dimensional array of observations (species, areas, and years) in which there are more missing values than filled cells. This frustrates attempts to analyze concordance using existing methods (e.g., Kendall's coefficient, or correlation combined with cluster analysis), which are either impossible to apply to incomplete data sets or potentially misleading when applied to incomplete data sets. I suggest an alternative method for analyzing concordance that makes maximal use of available data. For a given data set partitioned into the smallest units containing information about concordance, one computes an index of concordance using a regression approach and tests for significance using randomization methods. This procedure would seem to have wide application to ecological studies generally and to seabird monitoring in particular.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows and flash floods, northern Venezuela, 1999

A rare, high-magnitude storm in northern Venezuela in December 1999 triggered debris flows and flash floods, and caused one of the worst natural disasters in the recorded history of the Americas. Some 15,000 people were killed. The debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities on alluvial fans at the mouths of a coastal mountain drainage network and destroyed property estimated at more than $2 billion. Landslides were abundant and widespread on steep slopes within areas underlain by schist and gneiss from near the coast to slightly over the crest of the mountain range. Some hillsides were entirely denuded by single or coalescing failures, which formed massive debris flows in river channels flowing out onto densely populated alluvial fans at the coast. The massive amount of sediment derived from 24 watersheds along 50 km of the coast during the storm and deposited on alluvial fans and beaches has been estimated at 15 to 20 million m3. Sediment yield for the 1999 storm from the approximately 200 km2 drainage area of watersheds upstream of the alluvial fans was as much as 100,000 m3/km2. Rapid economic development in this dynamic geomorphic environment close to the capital city of Caracas, in combination with a severe rain storm, resulted in the death of approximately 5% of the population (300,000 total prior to the storm) in the northern Venezuelan state of Vargas. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, Supplementband↗
USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that are acutely experiencing effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a critical traditional subsistence resource for indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with four potential climate/disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic–pessimistic) which simulates Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the 21 st century. We considered two types of harvest strategies: (1) adaptive harvest scenarios wherein harvest is calculated as a percentage of the population and annual harvests are updated at set intervals as the population is reassessed, and (2) non-adaptive harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest remains constant. All climate/disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the 21 st century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that an adaptive annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, representing contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability (>70% probability of maintaining population abundance above maximum net productivity level) under all climate/disturbance scenarios, accepting a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This suggests that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the harvest adapts to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations suggest that a sustainable non-adaptive harvest is also possible, but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females (equivalent to contemporary harvest levels of 1.23) exceeded our criterion for sustainability and resulted in a >5% chance of quasi-extinction by the end of the 21 st century under three of the four climate/disturbance scenarios we evaluated. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive co-management strategies, and we suggest such modeling frameworks are useful for managing for harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2018

Vibrio population dynamics in Mid-Atlantic surface waters during Saharan dust events

Vibrio is a cosmopolitan genus of marine bacteria, highly investigated in coastal and estuarine environments. Vibrio have also been isolated from pelagic waters, yet very little is known about the ecology of these oligotrophic species. In this study we examined the relative change in bacterial abundance and more specifically the dynamics of Vibrio in the tropical North Atlantic in response to the arrival of pulses of Saharan dust aerosols, a major source of biologically important nutrients for downwind marine surface waters. Aerosol and surface water samples were collected over 1 month coinciding with at least two distinct dust events. Total bacterial counts increased by 1.6-fold correlating with the arrival of Saharan dust ( r = 0.76; p = 0.001). Virus-like particles (VLP) also followed this trend and were correlated with bacterial counts ( r = 0.67; p = 0.01). Vibrio specific qPCR targeting the 16S rRNA gene ranged from below detection limits to a high of 9,145 gene copies ml −1 with the arrival of dust. This increase equated to 6.5 × 10 2 −1.5 × 10 3 individual genome equivalents ml −1 based on the known range of 16S rRNA copies among this genus. Vibrio exhibited bloom-bust cycles potentially attributed to selective viral lysis or bloom depletion of organic carbon. This work is one of the few studies to examine the open ocean ecology of Vibrio , a conditionally rare taxon, whose bloom-bust lifestyle likely is a contributing factor in the flow of nutrients and energy in pelagic ecosystems.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2021

Bat activity patterns relative to temporal and weather effects in a temperate coastal environment

The northeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States are important summer maternity habitat and seasonal migratory corridors for many species of bats. Additionally, the effects of weather on bat activity are relatively unknown beyond coarse nightly scales. Using acoustic detectors, we assessed nightly and hourly activity patterns for eight species of bats over 21 consecutive months at Fire Island National Seashore, New York. The site is an important bat conservation area because it hosts one of the few confirmed northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) maternity colonies in the region despite their widespread extirpation due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). There have been no reported captures of little brown bats ( M. lucifugus ), Indiana bats ( M. sodalis ), or tri-colored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) at the site post-WNS. Overall, we found mean hourly temperature, time since sunset, day of year, and year to be the most important predictors of bat activity levels for all examined species. Most non-hibernating, migratory species in our study demonstrated a positive relationship to mean temperature at the hourly timescale, whereas cave-hibernating bats tended to show a negative relationship to mean temperature during the time of year when they are expected to be active. Although most bat activity occurred in the late spring through early autumn, peaking in summer, some activity occurred periodically in the winter months, mostly attributable to the big brown bat ( Eptesicus fuscus ) and silver-haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivigans ) phonic group. Unexpectedly, relationships of bat activity to wind and precipitation were largely equivocal. Initial presence (as early as March 30) and departure (between November 1–4) for northern long-eared bats at our study area occurred earlier in the spring and later in the fall than occurs for inland populations, suggesting that the species overwinters on Long Island rather than at inland karst caves or mines. A peak in spring activity characteristic of migratory behavior in the central Appalachians and Atlantic Coast was not observed at Fire Island, although Eastern red bats ( Lasiurus borealis ) and hoary bats (L. cinereus ) – both migratory species – did show a notable rise in activity in the late summer and early fall, suggesting these populations may migrate to and from Fire Island. Understanding the temporal and weather relationships to bat activity in this coastal environment may have important implications for tailoring more effective conservation and management strategies by identifying optimal timing for surveys, tracking bats during peak migratory windows, and providing insights that minimizes impacts to extant bats from activities such as wind-energy development or land management, i.e., forestry.

New York↗
USGS2010

Milankovitch-scale correlations between deeply buried microbial populations and biogenic ooze lithology

The recent discoveries of large, active populations of microbes in the subseafloor of the world's oceans supports the impact of the deep biosphere biota on global biogeochemical cycles and raises important questions concerning the functioning of these extreme environments for life. These investigations demonstrated that subseafloor microbes are unevenly distributed and that cell abundances and metabolic activities are often independent from sediment depths, with increased prokaryotic activity at geochemical and/or sedimentary interfaces. In this study we demonstrate that microbial populations vary at the scale of individual beds in the biogenic oozes of a drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 201, Site 1226). We relate bedding-scale changes in biogenic ooze sediment composition to organic carbon (OC) and microbial cell concentrations using high-resolution color reflectance data as proxy for lithology. Our analyses demonstrate that microbial concentrations are an order of magnitude higher in the more organic-rich diatom oozes than in the nannofossil oozes. The variations mimic small-scale variations in diatom abundance and OC, indicating that the modern distribution of microbial biomass is ultimately controlled by Milankovitch-frequency variations in past oceanographic conditions. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗
USGS2019

Decision-making in agent-based modeling: A current review and future prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory. While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N -mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

Ecological Modelling↗