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USGS2019

Nonlinear reaction–diffusion process models improve inference for population dynamics

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are a useful tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological processes. However, as an ecological process evolves, we need statistical models that can adapt to changing dynamics as new data are collected. We developed a model that combines an ecological diffusion equation and logistic growth to characterize colonization processes of a population that establishes long-term equilibrium over a heterogeneous environment. We also developed a homogenization strategy to statistically upscale the PDE for faster computation and adopted a hierarchical framework to accommodate multiple data sources collected at different spatial scales. We highlighted the advantages of using a logistic reaction component instead of a Malthusian component when population growth demonstrates asymptotic behavior. As a case study, we demonstrated that our model improves spatiotemporal abundance forecasts of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska. Furthermore, we predicted spatially varying local equilibrium abundances as a result of environmentally driven diffusion and density-regulated growth. Integrating equilibrium abundances over the study area in our application enabled us to infer the overall carrying capacity of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Using gene transcription to assess ecological and anthropological stressors in brown bears

Increasingly, population- and ecosystem-level health assessments are performed using sophisticated molecular tools. Advances in molecular technology enable the identification of synergistic effects of multiple stressors on the individual physiology of different species. Brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) are an apex predator; thus, they are ideal candidates for detecting potentially ecosystem-level systemic perturbations using molecular-based tools. We used gene transcription to analyze 130 brown bear samples from three National Parks and Preserves in Alaska. Although the populations we studied are apparently stable in abundance and exist within protected and intact environments, differences in transcript profiles were noted. The most prevalent differences were among locations. The transcript patterns among groups reflect the influence of environmental factors, such as nutritional status, disease, and xenobiotic exposure. However, these profiles also likely represent baselines for each unique environment by which future measures can be made to identify early indication of population-level changes due to, for example, increasing Arctic temperatures. Some of those environmental changes are predicted to be potentially positive for brown bears, but other effects such as the manifestation of disease or indirect effects of oceanic acidification may produce negative impacts.

Alaska↗

USGS1982

Social organization in a nesting population of eastern willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus )

The breeding ecology of eastern Willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus ) was studied over a 3-yr period in a salt marsh on the Atlantic coast of Virginia. During the study, 171 adults were color-marked. Willets are strictly monogamous and show strong site and mate fidelity from year to year. Normally a pair bond dissolves only after one member dies or fails to return in the spring. With an estimated annual adult mortality of 15%, the average life of a pair bond is 3 yr. The sexes share in most aspects of breeding, including brood-rearing, but females abandon both mate and brood about 2 weeks after the chicks hatch. Males apparently incubate at night and sometimes relieve the female at the nest during the middle of the day. In this area Willets defend separate nesting and feeding territories, though nest-site defense decreases through the incubation period. When mates are lost, males retain their original nesting and feeding territories, while females pair with available mates near their original nesting territory. Females compete for mates, and males select the most aggressive females. Nesting was particularly synchronous in lowland marsh sites, where the onset of egg laying was slightly earlier than in upland sites. Nest density was the highest reported for any scolopacid, and the highest densities were in sites closest to the marsh. Nest spacing is achieved through agonistic behavior, but there is evidence of a counter-tendency leading to nest clumping. Several features of the Willet social system resemble characteristics typical of colonial species of birds. These are discussed along with other aspects of social organization and the selective forces operating on it.

The Auk↗

USGS2004

Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornitho↗

USGS2001

Sex-biased gene flow in spectacled eiders (Anatidae): Inferences from molecular markers with contrasting modes of inheritance

Genetic markers that differ in mode of inheritance and rate of evolution (a sex-linked Z-specific microsatellite locus, five biparentally inherited microsatellite loci, and maternally inherited mitochondrial [mtDNA] sequences) were used to evaluate the degree of spatial genetic structuring at macro- and microgeographic scales, among breeding regions and local nesting populations within each region, respectively, for a migratory sea duck species, the spectacled eider ( Somateria fisheri ). Disjunct and declining breeding populations coupled with sex-specific differences in seasonal migratory patterns and life history provide a series of hypotheses regarding rates and directionality of gene flow among breeding populations from the Indigirka River Delta, Russia, and the North Slope and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. The degree of differentiation in mtDNA haplotype frequency among breeding regions and populations within regions was high (ϕ CT = 0.189, P < 0.01; ϕ SC = 0.059, P < 0.01, respectively). Eleven of 17 mtDNA haplotypes were restricted to a single breeding region. Genetic differences among regions were considerably lower for nuclear DNA loci (sex-linked: ϕ ST = 0.001, P > 0.05; biparentally inherited microsatellites: mean θ = 0.001, P > 0.05) than was observed for mtDNA. Using models explicitly designed for uniparental and biparentally inherited genes, estimates of spatial divergence based on nuclear and mtDNA data together with elements of the species' breeding ecology were used to estimate effective population size and degree of male and female gene flow. Differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of gene correlations for maternally inherited and nuclear genes revealed that females exhibit greater natal philopatry than do males. Estimates of generational female and male rates of gene flow among breeding regions differed markedly (3.67 × 10 −4 and 1.28 × 10 −2 , respectively). Effective population size for mtDNA was estimated to be at least three times lower than that for biparental genes (30,671 and 101,528, respectively). Large disparities in population sizes among breeding areas greatly reduces the proportion of total genetic variance captured by dispersal, which may accelerate rates of inbreeding (i.e., promote higher coancestries) within populations due to nonrandom pairing of males with females from the same breeding population.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world’s largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), gray wolves ( Canis lupus ), and wolverines ( Gulo gulo ). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2015

Winter habitat associations of blackbirds and starlings wintering in the south-central United States

Birds can cause extensive crop damage in the United States. In some regions, depredating species comprise a substantial portion of the total avian population, emphasizing their importance both economically and ecologically. We used the National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count data from the south-central United States and mixed-effects models to identify habitat factors associated with population trend and abundance for 5 species: red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ), common grackle ( Quiscalus quiscula ), rusty blackbird ( Euphagus carolinus ), Brewer’s blackbird ( Euphagus cyanocephalus ), and European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ). Overall, we found positive associations between bird abundance and agricultural land-cover for all species. Relationships between abundance and other land-cover types were species-specific, often with contrasting relationships among species. Likewise, we found no consistent patterns among abundance and climate. Of the 5 species, only red-winged blackbirds had a significant population trend in our study area, increasing annually by 2.4%. There was marginal evidence to suggest population increases for rusty blackbirds, whereas all other species showed no trend in population size within our study area. Our study provides managers who are interested in limiting crop damage in the south-central United States with novel information on habitat associations in the region that could be used to improve management and control actions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2023

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Lack of sex-biased dispersal promotes fine-scale genetic structure in alpine ungulates

Identifying patterns of fine-scale genetic structure in natural populations can advance understanding of critical ecological processes such as dispersal and gene flow across heterogeneous landscapes. Alpine ungulates generally exhibit high levels of genetic structure due to female philopatry and patchy configuration of mountain habitats. We assessed the spatial scale of genetic structure and the amount of gene flow in 301 Dall’s sheep ( Ovis dalli dalli ) at the landscape level using 15 nuclear microsatellites and 473 base pairs of the mitochondrial (mtDNA) control region. Dall’s sheep exhibited significant genetic structure within contiguous mountain ranges, but mtDNA structure occurred at a broader geographic scale than nuclear DNA within the study area, and mtDNA structure for other North American mountain sheep populations. No evidence of male-mediated gene flow or greater philopatry of females was observed; there was little difference between markers with different modes of inheritance (pairwise nuclear DNA F ST = 0.004–0.325; mtDNA F ST = 0.009–0.544), and males were no more likely than females to be recent immigrants. Historical patterns based on mtDNA indicate separate northern and southern lineages and a pattern of expansion following regional glacial retreat. Boundaries of genetic clusters aligned geographically with prominent mountain ranges, icefields, and major river valleys based on Bayesian and hierarchical modeling of microsatellite and mtDNA data. Our results suggest that fine-scale genetic structure in Dall’s sheep is influenced by limited dispersal, and structure may be weaker in populations occurring near ancestral levels of density and distribution in continuous habitats compared to other alpine ungulates that have experienced declines and marked habitat fragmentation.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Effects of a non-native biocontrol weevil, Larinus planus, and other emerging threats on populations of the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle, Cirsium pitcheri

Larinus planus Frabicius (Curculionidae), is a seed-eating weevil that was inadvertently introduced into the US and was subsequently distributed in the US and Canada for the control of noxious thistle species of rangelands. It has been detected recently in the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). We assayed weevil damage in a natural population of Pitcher's thistle at Whitefish Dunes State Park, Door County, WI and quantified the impact on fecundity. We then estimated the impact of this introduced weevil and other emerging threats on two natural, uninvaded populations of Pitcher's thistle for which we have long-term demographic data for 16 yr (Wilderness State Park, Emmet County, MI) and 23 yr (Miller High Dunes, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Porter County, IN). We used transition matrices to determine growth rates and project the potential effects of weevil damage, inbreeding, goldfinch predation, and vegetative succession on Pitcher's thistle population viability. Based on our models, weevil seed predation reduced population growth rate by 10–12%, but this reduction was enough to reduce time to extinction from 24 yr to 13 yr and 8 yr to 5 yr in the MI and IN population, respectively. This impact is particularly severe, given most populations of Pitcher's thistle throughout its range hover near or below replacement. This is the first report of unanticipated ecological impacts from a biocontrol agent on natural populations of Cirsium pitcheri.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2018

Energy allocation and feeding ecology of juvenile chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) during transition from freshwater to saltwater

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations near their northern range extent in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska have undergone major changes in population trajectory and illuminated the lack of basic information on juvenile ecology. This study fills information gaps on the early life history of chum salmon at northern latitudes. Energy allocation was examined in the context of distribution, feeding intensity, and diet during a critical life history period for a single cohort of juvenile chum salmon (O. keta) as they transition from freshwater to saltwater in Kuskokwim Bay from mid-May to early June. Juvenile chum salmon were primarily captured in the river mouth and plume. Energy density (kJ g−1 dry mass) was related to fork length, timing (day-of-year), and capture location in a general additive model. The smallest fish had slightly higher energy densities, but the change in energy density with fish size was minimal and consistent with allocating energy toward somatic growth rather than lipid storage. Fish captured earlier had higher energy density, likely reflecting the presence of residual yolk lipids during early migration. Fish captured in the river mouth and plume had higher energy densities. Feeding intensity was highest among small fish captured later within the river plume. Diet was dominated by surface prey (insects and calanoid copepods) rather than epibenthic harpacticoid copepods as commonly observed. These results provide the first data on energy allocation of juvenile chum salmon during a critical life history phase and suggest that somatic growth is prioritized over storing lipid at saltwater entry.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

USGS Environmental health science strategy: providing environmental health science for a changing world: Public review release

America has an abundance of natural resources. We have bountiful clean water, fertile soil, and unrivaled national parks, wildlife refuges, and public lands. These resources enrich our lives and preserve our health and wellbeing. These resources have been maintained because of our history of respect for their value and an enduring commitment to their vigilant protection. Awareness of the social, economic, and personal value of the health of our environment is increasing. The emergence of environmentally driven diseases caused by environmental exposure to contaminants and pathogens is a growing concern worldwide. New health threats and patterns of established threats are affected by both natural and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Human activities are key drivers of emerging (new and re-emerging) health threats. Societal demands for land and natural resources, a better quality of life, improved economic prosperity, and the environmental impacts associated with these demands will continue to increase. Natural earth processes, climate trends, and related climatic events will add to the environmental impact of human activities. These environmental drivers will influence exposure to disease agents, including viral, bacterial, prion, and fungal pathogens, parasites, natural earth materials, toxins and other biogenic compounds, and synthetic chemicals and substances. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defines environmental health science broadly as the interdisciplinary study of relations among the quality of the physical environment, the health of the living environment, and human health. The interactions among these three spheres are driven by human activities, ecological processes, and natural earth processes; the interactions affect exposure to contaminants and pathogens and the severity of environmentally driven diseases in animals and people. This definition provides USGS with a framework for synthesizing natural science information from across the Bureau and providing it to environmental, natural resource, agricultural, and public-health managers. The USGS is a Federal science agency with a broad range of natural science expertise relevant to environmental health. USGS provides scientific information and tools as a scientific basis for management and policy decision making. USGS specializes in science at the environment-health interface, by characterizing the processes that affect the interaction among the physical environment, the living environment, and people, and the resulting factors that affect ecological and human exposure to disease agents. This report describes a 10-year strategy that encompasses the portfolio of USGS environmental health science. It summarizes national environmental health priorities that USGS is best suited to address, and will serve as a strategic framework for USGS environmental health science goals, actions, and outcomes for the next decade. Implementation of this strategy is intended to aid coordination of USGS environmental health activities and to provide a focal point for disseminating information to stakeholders. The "One Health" paradigm advocated by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2011), and the American Veterinary Medicine Association (AVMA, 2008), among others, is based on a general recognition that the health of humans, animals, and the environment are inextricably linked. Thus, successful efforts to protect that health will require increased interdisciplinary research and increased communication and collaboration among the broader scientific and health community. This strategy is built upon that paradigm. The vision, mission, and five cornerstone goals of the USGS Environmental Health Science Strategy were developed with significant input from a wide range of stakeholders. Vision - The USGS is a premier source of the environmental health science needed to safeguard the health of the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. Mission - The mission of USGS in environmental health science is to contribute scientific information to environmental, natural resource, agricultural, and public-health managers, who use that science to support sound decision making. USGS provides the science to: - Goal 1: Identify, prioritize, and detect contaminants and pathogens of emerging environmental concern. - Goal 2: Reduce the impact of contaminants on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Goal 3: Reduce the impact of pathogens on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Goal 4: Discover the complex interactions and combined effects of exposure to contaminants and pathogens. - Goal 5: Prepare for and respond to environmental impacts and related health threats of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Goals 1 through 4 are intended to provide science to address environmental health threats in a logical order, from informing prevention and preparedness, to supporting systematic management response to environmental health issues. Goal 4 addresses the interaction among contaminants and pathogens, an issue of emerging concern in environmental health science. Goal 5 acknowledges the fact that natural and anthropogenic disasters can cause immediate and prolonged adverse environmental health threats. This strategy proposes that USGS take the following strategic science actions to achieve each of the five goals of this strategy: Goal 1: Identify, prioritize, and detect contaminants and pathogens of emerging environmental concern. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Prioritize contaminants and pathogens of emerging concern to guide research, detection, and management activities. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Conduct surveillance and monitoring to provide early warning of emerging health threats. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Develop approaches and tools that identify vulnerable environmental settings, ecosystems, and species. Goal 2: Reduce the impact of contaminants on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Systematically characterize the sources, occurrence, transport and fate of environmental contaminants to guide efforts to manage and mitigate contamination. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Evaluate the threats of contamination on the health of the environment, fish, wildlife, and people, and inform the associated management and protection efforts. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Characterize potential human exposure to support establishment of health-based standards or guidelines and contamination-reduction efforts. Goal 3: Reduce the impact of pathogens on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Determine the biotic and abiotic factors that control the ecology of infectious diseases affecting natural populations of aquatic and terrestrial species and potential transmission to other animals and humans. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Establish how natural and anthropogenic environmental changes affect the distribution and severity of infectious diseases in natural populations of aquatic and terrestrial species and potential transmission to other animals and humans. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Develop surveillance systems to identify changing patterns of disease activity in priority geographic areas. Goal 4: Discover the complex interactions and combined effects of exposure to contaminants and pathogens. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Identify how exposure to one class of disease agents (contaminants or pathogens) can make an organism more susceptible to effects from exposure to the other class of disease agents. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Implement interdisciplinary studies that characterize the effects of combined exposure to pathogens and contaminants. Goal 5: Prepare for and respond to the environmental impacts and related health threats of natural and anthropogenic disasters. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Establish a formal interdisciplinary science capability to rapidly assess the environmental health risks associated with disasters. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Enhance methods to anticipate, prepare for, and identify environmental, ecological, and related health impacts of future disasters. This strategy is one of seven USGS science strategies developed concurrently: - Climate and Land Use Change - Core Science Systems - Ecosystems - Energy and Mineral Resources - Environmental Health - Natural Hazards - Water. This strategy describes how USGS will address the highest priority environmental health issues facing the Nation. The ultimate intended outcome of this science strategy is prevention and reduction of adverse impacts to the quality of the environment, the health of our living resources, and human health. Communication with, and receiving input from, partners and stakeholders regarding their science needs is essential for successful implementation of this strategy. It is incumbent on USGS to reach out to all stakeholders to ensure that USGS efforts are focused on the highest priority environmental health issues and that products are provided in the most timely and usable form to all those who can use them. USGS must reach out to the scientific community, internally and externally, to ensure that our efforts are integrated with and take full advantage of the activities of others.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1999

Status of the Mariana Crow population on Rota, Mariana Islands

We conducted a survey of the endangered Mariana Crow ( Corvus kubaryi ) population on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, in October-November 1995 to provide current information on numbers and distribution of this species. To allow direct comparisons with a previous survey, we resurveyed transects established in 1982 using the same field methods and used identical analysis methods for both surveys. Several areas on Rota that lack suitable habitat and have few if any resident crows were excluded from our 6,315-ha study area. Our reanalysis of 1982 survey data for our study area gave an estimated population size of 1,348 crows (95% CI = 1,136–1,564), compared to a 1995 estimate of 592 crows (95% CI = 474–720). Mean number of crows detected per sampling station decreased 57% from 1.06 ± 0.09 SE in 1982 to 0.46 ± 0.05 in 1995. The apparent 56% decrease in population size may be a result of habitat loss from development and typhoons, as well as persecution, but other factors contributing to the decline cannot be identified until more is known about the ecology and demography of the Mariana Crow population.

Rota↗

USGS2022

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2015

Ecology and conservation of North American sea ducks

The past decade has seen a huge increase in the interest and attention directed toward sea ducks, the Mergini tribe. This has been inspired, in large part, by the conservation concerns associated with numerical declines in several sea duck species and populations, as well as a growing appreciation for their interesting ecological attributes. Reflecting the considerable research recently conducted on this tribe, Ecology and Conservation of North American Sea Ducks examines the 15 extant species of sea ducks from North America. Chapters are organized conceptually to focus on, compare, and contrast the ecological attributes of the tribe. Experts provide in-depth treatments of a range of topics, including: Population dynamics and genetics Infectious diseases and parasites Breeding costs and cross-seasonal affects Contaminant burdens Foraging behavior and energetics Migration strategies, molt ecology, and habitat affinities and dynamics Breeding systems and reproductive behavior Harvest history The book presents a comprehensive synthesis of sea duck ecology, documents factors that have caused population declines of some species, and provides managers with measures to enhance recovery of depressed populations of sea ducks in North America. Capturing the current state of knowledge of this unique tribe, it provides a benchmark for where we are in conservation efforts and suggests future directions for researchers, managers, students, conservationists, and avian enthusiasts.

Book↗

USGS2022

Context-dependent variation in persistence of host populations in the face of disease

Research Highlight : Valenzuela-Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R., & Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology , 00 , 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13603 . Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long-term mark–recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life-history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species ( Rhinoderma darwinii ). Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease-free populations. Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context-dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2016

The plant phenology monitoring design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2025

Mapping predicted ecological states at landscape scales using remote sensing data and machine learning

Dryland ecosystems, covering 45% of the Earth's land and supporting over one-third of the global population, face significant threats from land degradation and ecological state change. Managing these ecosystems is complex, and science-based frameworks like Ecological Site Descriptions and state-and-transition models are essential tools for guiding decisions to support ecological health while maintaining stakeholder values such as grazing, wildlife, and recreation. However, alignment of these frameworks with smaller scale soil survey maps limits their applicability to broader ecological processes. Here, we extend these frameworks to larger landscapes with a machine learning approach that integrates large-scale, high-resolution vegetation data with identified ecological states from a data-driven state-and-transition model developed for a landscape-scale Ecological Site Group. A “global” model, which used combined inputs from multiple remotely sensed datasets, outperformed individual dataset models based on evaluation with independent data. Ecological state maps generated through this approach broaden the utility of state-and-transition models across Ecological Site Groups, providing a more spatially robust tool for land management at watershed and larger landscape scales. These methods, and the associated ecological state maps, can help meet critical needs for improved land condition assessments that support development of resource management plans and help identify priority areas for restoration and conservation.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗