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Water resources in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, west-central Oklahoma, with an analysis of data gaps through 2015

This report provides an overview of existing hydrologic information describing the quality, quantity, and extent of the major surface-water and groundwater resources in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, west-central Oklahoma. Hydrologic information is provided for five major river systems (Cimarron River, North Canadian River, Canadian River, Washita River, and North Fork Red River), two reservoirs (Foss Reservoir and Canton Lake), and eight aquifers consisting of the alluvial aquifers associated with each of the five major river systems and three major bedrock aquifers (Ogallala aquifer, Elk City aquifer, and Rush Springs aquifer). Types of information provided about rivers and reservoirs for the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area include diversion sites and amounts of water allocated and diverted for permitted uses in 2015; treated wastewater discharge sites and amounts discharged in 2015; and characteristics describing water-quality field properties, major ions, nutrients, and selected trace elements. Major ions, nutrients, and selected trace elements are compared to secondary maximum contaminant levels and maximum contaminant levels for finished drinking water. Additionally, statistics are provided describing daily, monthly, and annual streamflow characteristics at 12 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Streamflow statistics include the magnitudes and frequencies of floods, base-flow characteristics, and long-term streamflow trends. Types of information provided about the aquifers include amounts of water allocated and pumped for permitted uses in 2015; characteristics of groundwater describing water-quality field properties, major ions, nitrate (measured as nitrogen), and selected trace elements with comparisons to secondary maximum contaminant levels and maximum contaminant levels for finished drinking water; groundwater levels and long-term changes in water levels; and ranges of hydraulic conductivity, aquifer recharge, specific yield, transmissivity, and well yields from reports and groundwater-flow models. Surface water is used primarily for irrigation and mining and other nonconsumptive uses in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, except from the Washita and North Fork Red Rivers, where water is treated for use as a public-water supply. Large concentrations of dissolved solids are the primary limiting factor affecting the use of surface water. Median concentrations of dissolved solids in surface water range from less than 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in samples from the North Canadian River to greater than 9,000 mg/L in samples from the Cimarron River. Large dissolved solids concentrations are correlated with hard water. Median hardness as calcium carbonate concentrations in surface water ranges from 427 mg/L in samples from Canton Lake to 1,000 mg/L in samples from the Washita River. In 2015, groundwater was used at more than twice the rate of surface water in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area. Although the alluvial aquifers are considered reliably good sources of water in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, concentrations of nitrate (measured as nitrogen) exceed the maximum contaminant level of 10 mg/L established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for finished drinking water in parts of all of the alluvial aquifers. Water from the three major bedrock aquifers is used for irrigation, mining, public-water supply, and other uses; however, large concentrations of dissolved solids, nitrate (measured as nitrogen), and naturally occurring trace elements such as arsenic and uranium may limit the use of groundwater as a source of public-water supply in some areas. As of 2015, the depletion of groundwater from the major aquifers in west-central Oklahoma is a minor concern to the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. Groundwater levels and other hydrologic information show that recharge rates exceed the rates of water pumped from aquifers, except in areas that may be affected locally by groundwater depletions.

Oklahoma

Flow characteristics of the Snake River and water budget for the Snake River plain, Idaho and eastern Oregon

This report is one in a series resulting from the U.S. Geological Survey's Snake River Plain Rasa (Regional Aquifer System Analysis) study that was initiation in October 1979. Purposes of the RASA study were to (1) refine knowledge of the regional ground-water flow system, (2) determine effects of conjunctive use of ground water and surface water, and (3) describe water chemistry. This purpose of this report is to describe flow characteristics of the Snake River and tributaries and to develop a water budget for the Snake River Plain. Data and interpretation in this report will be used in development of ground-water flow models.

Idaho, Oregon

Spatial and temporal variations in streamflow, dissolved solids, nutrients, and suspended sediment in the Rio Grande Valley study unit, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, 1993–95

Streamflow and water quality vary spatially and temporally in the Rio Grande from Del Norte, Colorado, to El Paso, Texas. The variations in streamflow and in concentrations of selected waterquality constituents—dissolved solids, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment—are described in this report. A multivariate linear regression model, ESTIMATOR2000, was used to estimate loads for selected constituents. Streamflow decreases in the downstream direction throughout most of the basin because outflows (due to agricultural use, leakage to ground water, and evapotranspiration) are greater than inflows. Streamflow increases between Rio Grande above the mouth of Trinchera Creek, near Lasauses, Colorado, to Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge, near San Ildefonso, New Mexico, because ground-water and tributary inflow are greater than outflow. Concentrations of dissolved solids, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment generally increase in the downstream direction. Concentrations of dissolved solids, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus decrease between Rio Grande above the mouth of Trinchera Creek, near Lasauses, Colorado, and Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge, near San Ildefonso, New Mexico, because of dilution by tributary inflow. Concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment decrease between Rio Grande Floodway at San Marcial, New Mexico, and Rio Grande below Leasburg Dam, near Leasburg, New Mexico, because of reservoir effects (nutrient uptake and settling of sediment). Several instances of decreasing streamflow and increasing loads indicate the presence of inflows with large constituent concentrations (relative to those of the Rio Grande immediately upstream from that inflow); this occurs (1) between Rio Grande near Del Norte, Colorado, and Rio Grande above the mouth of Trinchera Creek, near Lasauses, Colorado, for dissolved solids, (2) between Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge, near San Ildefonso, New Mexico, and Rio Grande Floodway at San Marcial, NewMexico, for all constituents, and (3) between Rio Grande below Leasburg Dam, near Leasburg, New Mexico, and Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas, for all constituents. Streamflow increases along every reach of the Rio Grande between the streamflow-gaging station Rio Grande above the mouth of Trinchera Creek, near Lasauses, Colorado, and the station Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge, near San Ildefonso, NewMexico. These increases in streamflow result in increases in the loads of dissolved solids, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment regardless of changes in concentrations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Modeling spatiotemporal abundance and movement dynamics using an integrated spatial capture–recapture movement model

Animal movement is a fundamental ecological process affecting the survival and reproduction of individuals, the structure of populations, and the dynamics of communities. Methods to quantify animal movement and spatiotemporal abundances, however, are generally separate and therefore omit linkages between individual-level and population-level processes. We describe an integrated spatial capture–recapture (SCR) movement model to jointly estimate (1) the number and distribution of individuals in a defined spatial region and (2) movement of those individuals through time. We applied our model to a study of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in a 28,125 km 2 survey area of the eastern Chukchi Sea, USA in 2015 that incorporated capture–recapture and telemetry data. In simulation studies, the model provided unbiased estimates of movement, abundance, and detection parameters using a bivariate normal random walk and correlated random walk movement process. Our case study provided detailed evidence of directional movement persistence for both male and female bears, where individuals regularly traversed areas larger than the survey area during the 36-day study period. Scaling from individual- to population-level inferences, we found that densities varied from <0.75 bears/625 km 2 grid cell/day in nearshore cells to 1.6–2.5 bears/grid cell/day for cells surrounded by sea ice. Daily abundance estimates ranged from 53 to 69 bears, with no trend across days. The cumulative number of unique bears that used the survey area increased through time due to movements into and out of the area, resulting in an estimated 171 individuals using the survey area during the study (95% credible interval 124–250). Abundance estimates were similar to a previous multiyear integrated population model using capture–recapture and telemetry data (2008–2016; Regehr et al., Scientific Reports 8:16780, 2018). Overall, the SCR–movement model successfully quantified both individual- and population-level space use, including the effects of landscape characteristics on movement, abundance, and detection, while linking the movement and abundance processes to directly estimate density within a prescribed spatial region and temporal period. Integrated SCR–movement models provide a generalizable approach to incorporate greater movement realism into population dynamics and link movement to emergent properties including spatiotemporal densities and abundances.

eastern Chukchi Sea

Hydrogeologic framework of the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston and Powder River structural basins, United States and Canada

The glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems in the Williston and Powder River structural basins within the United States and Canada are the uppermost principal aquifer systems and most accessible sources of groundwater for these energy-producing basins. The glacial aquifer system covers the northeastern part of the Williston structural basin. The lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems are present in about 91,300 square miles (mi 2 ) of the Williston structural basin and about 25,500 mi 2 of the Powder River structural basin. Directly under these aquifer systems are 800 to more than 3,000 feet (ft) of relatively impermeable marine shale that serves as a basal confining unit. The aquifer systems in the Williston structural basin have a shallow (less than 2,900 ft deep), wide, and generally symmetrical bowl shape. The aquifer systems in the Powder River structural basin have a very deep (as much as 8,500 ft deep), narrow, and asymmetrical shape. The Williston structural basin has been an important oil and natural gas producing region since the 1950s, and production has increased substantially since the mid-2000s due to improved drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods from deep formations, such as the Bakken and Three Forks Formations. These improved methods require considerable volumes of freshwater mostly from shallow aquifers or surface water. Coal, lignite, and coal-bed natural gas are additional sources of energy in both basins that can affect the quality and quantity of shallow aquifers through strip mining and groundwater depletion. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a regional study of the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems in the Williston and Powder River structural basins with the goal to quantify groundwater availability. This report, together with a companion report of the conceptual flow model, provides an improved understanding of the groundwater flow systems and a basis for a numerical, regional groundwater-flow model. This study combines the lithostratigraphic units of the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems in the United States and Canada into 7 regional hydrogeologic units&mdash;glacial deposits, 4 bedrock aquifers, and 2 bedrock confining units&mdash;using general hydraulic properties. The glacial deposits are composed of till and glacial outwash sands and gravels with areas of cobbles and boulders. The four bedrock aquifers are the upper Fort Union, lower Fort Union, lower Hell Creek, and Fox Hills aquifers and are contained primarily in sandstone layers. The two confining units are the middle Fort Union hydrogeologic unit (shale) and upper Hell Creek hydrogeologic unit (contains less sandstone than the underlying lower Hell Creek aquifer). Water from hydrogeologic units in these three aquifer systems is relatively fresh and potable, whereas withdrawals seldom occur from units below the basal confining unit because of great depths (greater than 800 ft) and poor water quality. Analysis of about 300 electric (resistivity) and lithologic logs in the Williston structural basin and numerous existing publications for the Powder River structural basin were used to develop a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework for both basins. Interpolated thicknesses of the glacial deposits, the lower Tertiary aquifer system, and the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system in the Williston structural basin are less than about 750; 2,250; and 1,050 ft, respectively. Interpolated thicknesses of the lower Tertiary aquifer system and the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system in the Powder River structural basin are less than about 7,180 and 5,070 ft, respectively. Interpolated horizontal hydraulic conductivity values for the Williston structural basin were as much as 25 feet per day (ft/d) in the glacial deposits and had smaller ranges in the lower Tertiary aquifer system (0.01&ndash;9.8 ft/d) and in the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system (0.06&ndash;5.5 ft/d). In the Powder River structural basin, the lower Tertiary aquifer system had a greater range of interpolated horizontal hydraulic conductivity values (0.10&ndash;11 ft/d) than the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system (0.02&ndash;5.7 ft/d). Transmissivity is greatest in the gravel zones of the glacial deposits (2,120 feet squared per day) and generally decreases with depth into the bedrock units. Regionally, water in the lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems flows in a northerly or northeasterly direction from the Powder River structural basin to the Williston structural basin. Groundwater flow in the Williston structural basin generally is easterly or northeasterly. Flow in the uppermost hydrogeologic units generally is more local and controlled by topography where unglaciated in the Williston structural basin than is flow in the glaciated part and in underlying aquifers. Groundwater flow in the Powder River structural basin generally is northerly with local variations greatest in the uppermost aquifers. Groundwater is confined, and flow is regional in the underlying aquifers.

Powder River Basin;Williston Basin

Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model—Theory, application and user documentation

SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) is a watershed modeling technique for relating water-quality measurements made at a network of monitoring stations to attributes of the watersheds containing the stations. The core of the model consists of a nonlinear regression equation describing the non-conservative transport of contaminants from point and diffuse sources on land to rivers and through the stream and river network. The model predicts contaminant flux, concentration, and yield in streams and has been used to evaluate alternative hypotheses about the important contaminant sources and watershed properties that control transport over large spatial scales. This report provides documentation for the SPARROW modeling technique and computer software to guide users in constructing and applying basic SPARROW models. The documentation gives details of the SPARROW software, including the input data and installation requirements, and guidance in the specification, calibration, and application of basic SPARROW models, as well as descriptions of the model output and its interpretation. The documentation is intended for both researchers and water-resource managers with interest in using the results of existing models and developing and applying new SPARROW models. The documentation of the model is presented in two parts. Part 1 provides a theoretical and practical introduction to SPARROW modeling techniques, which includes a discussion of the objectives, conceptual attributes, and model infrastructure of SPARROW. Part 1 also includes background on the commonly used model specifications and the methods for estimating and evaluating parameters, evaluating model fit, and generating water-quality predictions and measures of uncertainty. Part 2 provides a user's guide to SPARROW, which includes a discussion of the software architecture and details of the model input requirements and output files, graphs, and maps. The text documentation and computer software are available on the Web at http://usgs.er.gov/sparrow/sparrow-mod.html .

Techniques and Methods

Steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system

This report describes the construction, calibration, evaluation, and results of a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system that was developed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census Initiative to evaluate the nation&rsquo;s groundwater availability. The study area spans 110,000 square miles across five states. The numerical model uses MODFLOW-2005, and incorporates and tests complex hydrogeologic and hydrologic elements of a conceptual understanding of an interconnected groundwater system throughout the region, including mountains, basins, consolidated rocks, and basin fill. The level of discretization in this model has not been previously available throughout the study area. Observations used to calibrate the model are those of water levels and discharge to evapotranspiration, springs, rivers, and lakes. Composite scaled sensitivities indicate the simulated values of discharge to springs, rivers, and lakes provide as much information about model parameters as do simulated water-level values. The model has 176 parameters and little parameter correlation. The simulated equivalents to observations provide enough information to constrain most parameters to smaller ranges than the conceptual constraints, and most parameter values are within reasonable ranges. Model fit to observations, comparison of simulated to conceptual water-level contours, and comparison of simulated to conceptual water budgets indicate this model provides a reasonable representation of the regional groundwater system. Eighty-six percent of the simulated values of water levels in wells are within 119 feet (one standard deviation of the error) of the observed values. Ninety percent of the simulated discharges are within 30 percent of the observed values. Total simulated recharge in the study area is within 10 percent of the conceptual amount; total simulated discharge is the same as conceptual discharge. Comparison of simulated hydraulic heads with the conceptual potentiometric surface indicates that the model accurately depicts major features of the hydraulic-head distribution. The incorporation of new recharge estimates and of mountain springs and streams as model observations creates higher simulated recharge mounds under many mountain ranges and highlights that in many cases, the regional flow paths go around, not through (or under) mountain ranges. Results from the model show that much of the flow in the groundwater system occurs in deeper layers, even though about 86 percent of the discharge occurs in layer 1. Over 95 percent of the recharge moves down from layer 1, and about 25 percent moves down to layer 8. The model was used to delineate six simulated groundwater flow regions that connect recharge areas to discharge areas. The eastern Great Salt Lake and Great Salt Lake Desert model regions contain 75 percent of the groundwater budget, but only 42 percent of the study area. In contrast, the more southern Death Valley and Colorado model regions contain only 12 percent of the groundwater budget, but 37 percent of the study area. Examples of potential use of the model to investigate the groundwater system include (1) the effects of different recharge, (2) different interpretations of the extent or offset of long faults or fault zones, and (3) different conceptual models of the spatial variation of hydraulic properties. The model can also be used to examine the ultimate effects of groundwater withdrawals on a regional scale, to provide boundary conditions for local-scale models, and to guide data collection.

Great Basin

Genomic selection for low salinity tolerance in the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica in Louisiana and Chesapeake Bay populations

The use of genomic selection (GS) to improve traits of interest in aquaculture species is growing with the availability of genomic resources for those species. The eastern oyster , Crassostrea virginica , is a major aquaculture product and keystone species along the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Populations and production of C. virginica are threatened by several environmental stressors, and in certain coastal regions, episodic low salinity conditions have contributed to mass mortality events. Here we examined the potential for genomic selection to improve tolerance to extreme low salinity (≤ 2) in eastern oysters and report the evaluation of GS models for C. virginica from two regions- Louisiana and Chesapeake Bay. Tissue samples from both mortalities and survivors of the lab-based salinity challenges (salinity 2, 28 °C) were genotyped on the 66 K C. virginica SNP array. We performed a genome wide association study (GWAS) for both challenges and then evaluated the effects of several different parameters on GS prediction accuracy, including model type (GBLUP, Bayesian, and weighted), data filtering, Bayesian modelling parameters, and trait encoding (Gaussian, ordinal, and censored). GWAS revealed a significant region on chromosome 1 in the Chesapeake animals while the Louisiana animals showed only a few significantly associated loci. GS model type had no significant impact on prediction accuracy in the Chesapeake animals, but a large impact in the Louisiana animals. Likewise, prediction accuracy remained consistent in the Chesapeake Bay challenge with as few as 5000 markers, while accuracy in the Louisiana challenge began to decline with fewer than 25,000 markers. This likely reflects the lower relatedness among the Louisiana individuals due to unintended wild overset. Overall, with moderate prediction accuracies (∼0.45–0.55) in both regions, GS shows the potential to improve low salinity tolerance in eastern oysters. This will be beneficial to selective breeding programs and restoration efforts in regions where this trait improves oyster survival.

Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia

Adapting generalization tools to physiographic diversity for the united states national hydrography dataset

This paper reports on generalization and data modeling to create reduced scale versions of the National Hydrographic Dataset (NHD) for dissemination through The National Map, the primary data delivery portal for USGS. Our approach distinguishes local differences in physiographic factors, to demonstrate that knowledge about varying terrain (mountainous, hilly or flat) and varying climate (dry or humid) can support decisions about algorithms, parameters, and processing sequences to create generalized, smaller scale data versions which preserve distinct hydrographic patterns in these regions. We work with multiple subbasins of the NHD that provide a range of terrain and climate characteristics. Specifically tailored generalization sequences are used to create simplified versions of the high resolution data, which was compiled for 1:24,000 scale mapping. Results are evaluated cartographically and metrically against a medium resolution benchmark version compiled for 1:100,000, developing coefficients of linear and areal correspondence.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science

The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities. As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse

Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS)

The American National Standards Institute?s (ANSI) Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS) is a mechanism for archiving and transferring of spatial data (including metadata) between dissimilar computer systems. The SDTS specifies exchange constructs, such as format, structure, and content, for spatially referenced vector and raster (including gridded) data. The SDTS includes a flexible conceptual model, specifications for a quality report, transfer module specifications, data dictionary specifications, and definitions of spatial features and attributes.

Fact Sheet

Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS)

The Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SOTS) is a mechanism for the transfer of spatial data between dissimilar computer systems. The SOTS specifies exchange constructs, addressing formats, structure, and content for spatially referenced vector and raster (including gridded) data. SOTS components are a conceptual model, specifications for a quality report, transfer module specifications, data dictionary specifications, and definitions of spatial features and attributes.

Fact Sheet

The Limit of Inundation of the September 29, 2009, Tsunami on Tutuila, American Samoa

U.S. Geological Survey scientists investigated the coastal impacts of the September 29, 2009, South Pacific tsunami in Tutuila, American Samoa in October and November 2009, including mapping the alongshore variation in the limit of inundation. Knowing the inundation limit is useful for planning safer coastal development and evacuation routes for future tsunamis and for improving models of tsunami hazards. This report presents field data documenting the limit of inundation at 18 sites around Tutuila collected in the weeks following the tsunami using Differential GPS (DGPS). In total, 15,703 points along inundation lines were mapped. Estimates of DGPS error and uncertainty in interpretation of the inundation line are provided as electronic files that accompany this report.

Open-File Report

Crude-oil spill research project near Bemidji, Minnesota - Bibliography, 1984-1994

The U.S. Geological Survey began a research project at the site of a crude-oil spill near Bemidji, Minnesota in 1983. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Toxic Substances Hydrology Program. The objectives of research at the site are to obtain an understanding of the mobilization, transport, and fate of petroleum derivatives in the shallow subsurface and to use this understanding to develop predictive models of contaminant behavior. This report presents a bibliography of scientific papers that have been published from 1984 to early 1994. Research results have been published in scientific journals, conference proceedings, U.S. Geological Survey Reports, and academic theses.

Open-File Report

Potential depletion of surface water in the Colorado River and agricultural drains by groundwater pumping in the Parker-Palo Verde-Cibola area, Arizona and California

Water use along the lower Colorado River is allocated as “consumptive use,” which is defined to be the amount of water diverted from the river minus the amount that returns to the river. Diversions of water from the river include surface water in canals and water removed from the river by pumping wells in the aquifer connected to the river. A complication in accounting for water pumped by wells occurs if the pumping depletes water in drains and reduces measured return flow in those drains. In that case, consumptive use of water pumped by the wells is accounted for in the reduction of measured return flow. A method is needed to understand where groundwater pumping will deplete water in the river and where it will deplete water in drains. To provide a basis for future accounting for pumped groundwater in the Parker-Palo Verde-Cibola area, a superposition model was constructed. The model consists of three layers of finite-difference cells that cover most of the aquifer in the study area. The model was run repeatedly with each run having a pumping well in a different model cell. The source of pumped water that is depletion of the river, expressed as a fraction of the pumping rate, was computed for all active cells in model layer 1, and maps were constructed to understand where groundwater pumping depletes the river and where it depletes drains. The model results indicate that if one or more drains exist between a pumping well location and the river, nearly all of the depletion will be from drains, and little or no depletion will come from the Colorado River. Results also show that if a well pumps on a side of the river with no drains in the immediate area, depletion will come from the Colorado River. Finally, if a well pumps between the river and drains that parallel the river, a fraction of the pumping will come from the river and the rest will come from the drains. Model results presented in this report may be considered in development or refinement of strategies for accounting for groundwater pumping in the river aquifer connected to the Colorado River in the study area.

Arizona;California

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia

Armenia is a landlocked country located in the mountainous Caucasus region between Asia and Europe. It shares borders with the countries of Georgia on the north, Azerbaijan on the east, Iran on the south, and Turkey and Azerbaijan on the west. The Ararat Basin is a transboundary basin in Armenia and Turkey. The Ararat Basin (or Ararat Valley) is an intermountain depression that contains the Aras River and its tributaries, which also form the border between Armenia and Turkey and divide the basin into northern and southern regions. The Ararat Basin also contains Armenia’s largest agricultural and fish farming zone that is supplied by high-quality water from wells completed in the artesian aquifers that underlie the basin. Groundwater constitutes about 40 percent of all water use, and groundwater provides 96 percent of the water used for drinking purposes in Armenia. Since 2000, groundwater withdrawals and consumption in the Ararat Basin of Armenia have increased because of the growth of aquaculture and other uses. Increased groundwater withdrawals caused decreased springflow, reduced well discharges, falling water levels, and a reduction of the number of flowing artesian wells in the southern part of Ararat Basin in Armenia. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began a cooperative study in Armenia to share science and field techniques to increase the country’s capabilities for groundwater study and modeling. The purpose of this report is to describe the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia based on data collected in 2016 and previous hydrogeologic studies. The study area includes the Ararat Basin in Armenia. This report was completed through a partnership with USAID/Armenia in the implementation of its Science, Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships effort through the Advanced Science and Partnerships for Integrated Resource Development program and associated partners, including the Government of Armenia, Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center, and the USAID Global Development Lab and its GeoCenter. The hydrogeologic framework of the Ararat Basin includes several basin-fill stratigraphic units consisting of interbedded dense clays, gravels, sands, volcanic basalts, and andesite deposits. Previously published cross sections and well lithologic logs were used to map nine general hydrogeologic units. Hydrogeologic units were mapped based on lithology and water-bearing potential. Water-level data measured in the water-bearing hydrogeologic units 2, 4, 6, and 8 in 2016 were used to create potentiometric surface maps. In hydrogeologic unit 2, the estimated direction of groundwater flow is from the west to north in the western part of the basin (away from the Aras River) and from north to south (toward the Aras River) in the eastern part of the basin. In hydrogeologic unit 4, the direction of groundwater flow is generally from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) except in the western part of the basin where groundwater flow is toward the north or northwest. Hydrogeologic unit 6 has the same general pattern of groundwater flow as unit 4. Hydrogeologic unit 8 is the deepest of the water-bearing units and is confined in the basin. Groundwater flow generally is from the south to north (away from the Aras River) in the western part of the basin and from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) elsewhere in the basin. In addition to water levels, personnel from Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center also measured specific conductance at 540 wells and temperature at 2,470 wells in the Ararat Basin using U.S. Geological Survey protocols in 2016. The minimum specific conductance was 377 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm), the maximum value was 4,000 μS/cm, and the mean was 998 μS/cm. The maximum water temperature was 24.2 degrees Celsius. An analysis between water temperature and well depth indicated no relation; however, spatially, most wells with cooler water temperatures were within the 2016 pressure boundary or in the western part of the basin. Wells with generally warmer water temperatures were in the eastern part of the basin. Samples were collected from four groundwater sites and one surface-water site by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2016. The stable-isotope values were similar for all five sites, indicating similar recharge sources for the sampled wells. The Hrazdan River sample was consistent with the groundwater samples, indicating the river could serve as a source of recharge to the Ararat artesian aquifer.

Ararat Basin

Water-resources and land-surface deformation evaluation studies at Fort Irwin National Training Center, Mojave Desert, California

The U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), in the Mojave Desert, obtains all of its potable water supply from three groundwater basins (Irwin, Langford, and Bicycle) within the NTC boundaries (fig. 1; California Department of Water Resources, 2003). Because of increasing water demands at the NTC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army, completed several studies to evaluate water resources in the developed and undeveloped groundwater basins underlying the NTC. In all of the developed basins, groundwater withdrawals exceed natural recharge, resulting in water-level declines. However, artificial recharge of treated wastewater has had some success in offsetting water-level declines in Irwin Basin. Additionally, localized water-quality changes have occurred in some parts of Irwin Basin as a result of human activities (i.e., wastewater disposal practices, landscape irrigation, and/or leaking pipes). As part of the multi-faceted NTC-wide studies, traditional datacollection methods were used and include lithological and geophysical logging at newly drilled boreholes, hydrologic data collection (i.e. water-level, water-quality, aquifer tests, wellbore flow). Because these data cover a small portion of the 1,177 square-mile (mi2 ) NTC, regional mapping, including geologic, gravity, aeromagnetic, and InSAR, also were done. In addition, ground and airborne electromagnetic surveys were completed and analyzed to provide more detailed subsurface information on a regional, base-wide scale. The traditional and regional ground and airborne data are being analyzed and will be used to help develop preliminary hydrogeologic framework and groundwater-flow models in all basins. This report is intended to provide an overview of recent water-resources and land-surface deformation studies at the NTC.

California

Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of flood damage probability for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events ( n = 71,434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g., flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a flood damage probability for each 100-m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g., forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g., wetlands). Our results identified flood damage probability hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating flood damage probability estimates across the nation.

Environmental Research Letters