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Historical and projected climate in the northern Rockies Region

Climate influences the ecosystem services we obtain from forest and rangelands. Climate is described by the long-term characteristics of precipitation, temperature, wind, snowfall, and other measures of weather that occur over a long period in a particular place, and is typically expressed as long-term average conditions. Resource management practices are implemented day-to-day in response to weather conditions; resource management strategies and plans are developed using our understanding of climate. With the need to consider climate change in planning and management, an understanding of how climate may change in the future in a resource management planning area is valuable. In this chapter, we present the current understanding of potential changes in climate for the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), hereafter called the Northern Rockies region.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Terrestrial forest management plan for Palmyra Atoll

This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Palmyra Program to refine and expand goals and objectives developed through the Conservation Action Plan process. It is one in a series of adaptive management plans designed to achieve TNC's mission toward the protection and enhancement of native wildlife and habitat. The 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' focuses on ecosystem integrity and specifically identifies and addresses issues related to assessing the status and distribution of resources, as well as the pressures acting upon them, most specifically nonnative and potentially invasive species. The plan, which presents strategies for increasing ecosystem integrity, provides a framework to implement and track the progress of conservation and restoration goals related to terrestrial resources on Palmyra Atoll. The report in its present form is intended to be an overview of what is known about historical and current forest resources; it is not an exhaustive review of all available literature relevant to forest management but an attempt to assemble as much information specific to Palmyra Atoll as possible. Palmyra Atoll is one of the Northern Line Islands in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the Hawai`ian Islands. It consists of many heavily vegetated islets arranged in a horseshoe pattern around four lagoons and surrounded by a coral reef. The terrestrial ecosystem consists of three primary native vegetation types: Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, and grassland. Among these vegetation types, the health and extent of Pisonia grandis forest is of particular concern. Overall, the three vegetation types support 25 native plant species (two of which may be extirpated), 14 species of sea birds, six shore birds, at least one native reptile, at least seven native insects, and six native land crabs. Green and hawksbill turtles forage at Palmyra Atoll, and though rarely documented, beach nesting could be affected by terrestrial management actions. There are various nonnative or invasive species throughout the terrestrial ecosystem. The most notable examples of terrestrial invasive species include coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) and black rats (Rattus rattus). Although it is unclear whether they are nonnative, coconut palms are currently the most dominant plant across Palmyra Atoll. They compete with native plant species for space and resources and are potentially detrimental to sea birds dependent on native vegetation for roosting and nesting habitat. This competition in turn impacts nutrient resource availability, thereby reshaping energy flow in the ecosystem. Black rats are known to prey on ground-nesting sea birds and are likely responsible for the lack of burrowing sea bird reproduction at Palmyra Atoll. In addition, they may be facilitating the invasion of other nonnative species and negatively impacting other native fauna. Although the extent and impacts of these and other nonnative and (or) invasive species are not fully understood, the extent and impacts are clearly a threat to the native species and one of the most urgent threats to the overall ecosystem integrity of Palmyra Atoll. This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' addresses issues related to invasive species and other problems. Priority goals are established as are associated objectives and strategies. The overarching goal is to perpetuate and where possible restore terrestrial ecosystem integrity through the following techniques: 1. Habitat management: Maintain and enhance habitat to the extent possible to sustain thriving Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, endemic grassland, self-sustaining populations of sea birds, shore birds, coconut crabs, native lizards, and native insects. 2. Monitoring and assessment: Acquire information on distribution and abundance as needed for conservation of each resour

Open-File Report

Recent, widespread nitrate decreases may be linked to persistent dissolved organic carbon increases in headwater streams recovering from past acidic deposition

Long-term monitoring of water quality responses to natural and anthropogenic perturbation of watersheds informs policies for managing natural resources. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 − ) in streams draining forested landscapes provide valuable information on ecosystem function due to their biogeochemical reactivity and solubility in water. Here we evaluate a 20-year record (2001−2021) of biweekly stream-water samples ( n > 3000) and continuous discharge in three forested catchments in the Adirondack region of New York to investigate and interpret long-term trends in DOC and NO 3 − concentrations. Results from the intensively monitored catchments were compared with data from synoptic surveys of streams throughout the Adirondack region. A weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model, used to estimate daily flow-normalized concentrations, determined that DOC increased by ~30 to 50 % while NO 3 − decreased by ~50 to 70 % over the study period. The large amount of data from catchments with different soil properties permitted us to assess the relative effects of hydrology, season, and land cover factors on temporal trends in DOC and NO 3 − concentrations. We found weak evidence of climatic forcing of long-term increases in DOC, and instead contend that declining ionic strength in precipitation linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition is driving DOC trends in stream waters. Nitrate concentrations were more variable but clearly decreased in recent years possibly related to declining N deposition. The recent increase in DOC:NO 3 − in all catchments indicates a major shift in stream stoichiometry that reflects changes in ecosystem functioning that may have important biogeochemical implications for terrestrial as well as aquatic ecosystems.

Science of the Total Environment

Effects of dams and geomorphic context on riparian forests of the Elwha River, Washington

Understanding how dams affect the shifting habitat mosaic of river bottomlands is key for protecting the many ecological functions and related goods and services that riparian forests provide and for informing approaches to riparian ecosystem restoration. We examined the downstream effects of two large dams on patterns of forest composition, structure, and dynamics within different geomorphic contexts and compared them to upstream reference conditions along the Elwha River, Washington, USA. Patterns of riparian vegetation in river segments downstream of the dams were driven largely by channel and bottomland geomorphic responses to a dramatically reduced sediment supply. The river segment upstream of both dams was the most geomorphically dynamic, whereas the segment between the dams was the least dynamic due to substantial channel armoring, and the segment downstream of both dams was intermediate due to some local sediment supply. These geomorphic differences were linked to altered characteristics of the shifting habitat mosaic, including older forest age structure and fewer young Populus balsamifera subsp. trichocarpa stands in the relatively static segment between the dams compared to more extensive early-successional forests (dominated by Alnus rubra and Salix spp.) and pioneer seedling recruitment upstream of the dams. Species composition of later-successional forest communities varied among river segments as well, with greater Pseudotsuga menziesii and Tsuga heterophylla abundance upstream of both dams, Acer spp. abundance between the dams, and P. balsamifera subsp. trichocarpa and Thuja plicata abundance below both dams. Riparian forest responses to the recent removal of the two dams on the Elwha River will depend largely on channel and geomorphic adjustments to the release, transport, and deposition of the large volume of sediment formerly stored in the reservoirs, together with changes in large wood dynamics.

Washington

Wildlife species associated with non-coniferous vegetation in Pacific Northwest conifer forests: A review

Non-coniferous vegetation, including herbs, shrubs, and broad-leaved trees, makes a vital contribution to ecosystem function and diversity in Pacific Northwest conifer forests. However, forest management has largely been indifferent or detrimental to shrubs and trees that have low commercial value, in spite of a paradigm shift towards more holistic management in recent decades. Forest management practices that are detrimental to broad-leaved trees and shrubs are likely to decrease habitat diversity for wildlife, but the number of species that may be affected has not previously been enumerated. I reviewed life history accounts for forest-dwelling vertebrate wildlife species and derived a list of 78 species in Oregon and Washington that are associated with non-coniferous vegetation. The diversity of direct and indirect food resources provided was the primary functional basis for associations of most species with non-coniferous vegetation. Thus, a diversity of herbs and broad-leaved trees and shrubs provides the foundation for food webs that contribute to diversity at multiple trophic levels in Pacific Northwest conifer forests. Given the number of species associated with non-coniferous vegetation in conifer-dominated forests, maintaining habitats that support diverse plant communities, particularly broad-leaved trees and shrubs, will be an important component of management strategies intended to foster biodiversity. Silvicultural practices such as modified planting densities, and pre-commercial and commercial thinning, can be used to control stand density in order to favor the development of understory herbs, shrubs, and a diversity of tree species within managed stands. Allowing shrubs and hardwood trees to develop and persist in early seral stands by curtailing vegetation control also would benefit many species associated with non-coniferous vegetation.

Forest Ecology and Management

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report

Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western North America, for example, has substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as variability due to anthropogenic disturbance, invasive species, climate change, and altered fire regimes, which collectively make modelling dynamic ecosystem processes difficult. Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) is a robust ecosystem dynamic model, initially developed for tropical forests, that simulates energy, water, and carbon fluxes at fine scales. Although EDv2.2 has since been tested on different ecosystems via development of different Plant Function Types (PFT), it still lacks a shrub PFT. In this study, we developed and parameterized a shrub PFT representative of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in order to initialize and test it within EDv2.2, and to promote future broad-scale analysis of restoration activities, climate change, and fire regimes in the sagebrush-steppe. Specifically, we parameterized the sagebrush PFT within EDv2.2 to estimate gross primary production (GPP), using data from two sagebrush study sites in the northern Great Basin. To accomplish this, we employed a three-tier approach: 1) To initially parameterize the sagebrush PFT, we fitted allometric relationships for sagebrush using field-collected data, information from existing sagebrush literature, and parameters from other land models. 2) To determine influential parameters in GPP prediction, we used a sensitivity analysis to identify the five most sensitive parameters. 3) To improve model performance and validate results, we optimized these five parameters using an exhaustive search method to estimate GPP, and compared results with observations from two Eddy Covariance (EC) sites in the study area. Our modeled results were encouraging, with reasonable fidelity to observed values, although some negative biases (i.e., seasonal underestimates of GPP) were apparent.

Great Basin

Resilience of ponderosa and lodgepole pine forests to mountain pine beetle disturbance and limited regeneration

After causing widespread mortality in lodgepole pine forests in North America, the mountain pine beetle (MPB) has recently also affected ponderosa pine, an alternate host species that may have different levels of resilience to this disturbance. We collected field data in ponderosa pine- and lodgepole pine-dominated forests attacked by MPB in Colorado and then simulated stand growth over 200 years using the Forest Vegetation Simulator. We compared scenarios of no disturbance with scenarios of MPB-caused mortality, both with and without regeneration. Results indicated that basal area and tree density recovered to predisturbance levels relatively rapidly (within 1‐8 decades) in both forest types. However, convergence of the disturbed conditions with simulated undisturbed conditions took longer (12‐20+ decades) and was delayed by the absence of regeneration. In MPB-affected ponderosa pine forests without regeneration, basal area did not converge with undisturbed conditions within 200 years, implying lower resilience in this ecosystem. Surface fuels accumulated rapidly in both forest types after MPB-induced mortality, remaining high for 3‐6 decades in simulations. Our results suggest that future patterns of succession, regeneration, fuel loading, climate, and disturbance interactions over long time periods should be considered in management strategies addressing MPB effects in either forest type, but particularly in ponderosa pine.

Forest Science

New York State climate impacts assessment chapter 05: Ecosystems

The people of New York have long benefited from the state's diversity of ecosystems, which range from coastal shorelines and wetlands to extensive forests and mountaintop alpine habitat, and from lakes and rivers to greenspaces in heavily populated urban areas. These ecosystems provide key services such as food, water, forest products, flood prevention, carbon storage, climate moderation, recreational opportunities, and other cultural services. This chapter examines how changes in climatic conditions across the state are affecting different types of ecosystems and the services they provide, and considers likely future impacts of projected climate change. The chapter emphasizes how climate change is increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems to existing stressors, such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species, and highlights opportunities for New Yorkers to adapt and build resilience.

New York

Patterns and controls of foliar nutrient stoichiometry and flexibility across United States forests

Plant element stoichiometry and stoichiometric flexibility strongly regulate ecosystem responses to global change. Here, we tested three potential mechanistic drivers (climate, soil nutrients, and plant taxonomy) of both using paired foliar and soil nutrient data from terrestrial forested National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the USA. We found that broad patterns of foliar nitrogen (N) and foliar phosphorus (P) are explained by different mechanisms. Plant taxonomy was an important control over all foliar nutrient stoichiometries and concentrations, especially foliar N, which was dominantly related to taxonomy and did not vary across climate or soil gradients. Despite a lack of site-level correlations between N and environment variables, foliar N exhibited intraspecific flexibility, with numerous species-specific correlations between foliar N and various environmental factors, demonstrating the variable spatial and temporal scales on which foliar chemistry and stoichiometric flexibility can manifest. In addition to plant taxonomy, foliar P and N:P ratios were also linked to soil nutrient status (extractable P) and climate, especially actual evapotranspiration rates. Our findings highlight the myriad factors that influence foliar chemistry and show that broad patterns cannot be explained by a single consistent mechanism. Furthermore, differing controls over foliar N versus P suggests that each may be sensitive to global change drivers on distinct spatial and temporal scales, potentially resulting in altered ecosystem N:P ratios that have implications for processes ranging from productivity to carbon sequestration.

Ecology

Topographic, soil, and climate drivers of drought sensitivity in forests and shrublands of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA, as the percent reduction in vegetation greenness under droughts relative to baseline moisture conditions. At a regional scale, shrub-steppe ecosystems—with drier climates and lower biomass—showed greater drought sensitivity than conifer forests. However, variability in drought sensitivity was considerable within biomes and within ecosystems and was mediated by landscape topography, climate, and soil characteristics. Drought sensitivity was generally greater in areas with higher elevation, drier climate, and greater soil bulk density. Ecosystems with high drought sensitivity included dry forests along ecotones to shrublands, Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and cold upland sagebrush communities. In forests, valley bottoms and areas with low soil bulk density and high soil available water capacity showed reduced drought sensitivity, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. These regional-scale drought-sensitivity patterns discerned from remote sensing can complement plot-scale studies of plant physiological responses to drought to help inform climate-adaptation planning as drought conditions intensify.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO 2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology

Carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subtropical forested cypress and pine wetlands

Carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and forested subtropical wetlands is largely unknown. Here we report a first step in characterizing this atmospheric–ecosystem carbon (C) exchange, for cypress strands and pine forests in the Greater Everglades of Florida as measured with eddy covariance methods at three locations (Cypress Swamp, Dwarf Cypress and Pine Upland) for 2 years. Links between water and C cycles are also examined at these three sites, as are methane emission measured only at the Dwarf Cypress site. Each forested wetland showed net C uptake from the atmosphere both monthly and annually, as indicated by the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). For this study, NEE is the difference between photosynthesis and respiration, with negative values representing uptake from the atmosphere that is retained in the ecosystem or transported laterally via overland flow (unmeasured for this study). Atmospheric C uptake (NEE) was greatest at the Cypress Swampp (−900 to −1000 g C m 2 yr −1 ), moderate at the Pine Upland (−650 to −700 g C m 2 yr −1 ) and least at the Dwarf Cypress (−400 to −450 g C m 2 yr −1 ). Changes in NEE were clearly a function of seasonality in solar insolation, air temperature and flooding, which suppressed heterotrophic soil respiration. We also note that changes in the satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) served as a useful surrogate for changes in NEE at these forested wetland sites.

Florida

Effect of tree line advance on carbon storage in NW Alaska

We investigated the size, distribution, and temporal dynamics of ecosystem carbon (C) pools in an area of recent tree line advance, northwest Alaska. Repeat aerial photographs show forest cover increased ???10% in our study area since 1949. We sampled C pools of four principal ecosystem types, tussock tundra, shrub tundra, woodland, and forest, all located on a 600-800 year old river terrace. Significant differences between ecosystem C pools, both above ground and below ground existed. Tundra sites store >22.2 kg C/m2, shrub tundra sites and woodland sites store 9.7 kg C/m2 and 14.3 kg C/m2, respectively, and forest sites store 14.4 kg C/m2. Landscape variation of total ecosystem C was primarily due to organic soil C and was secondarily due to C stored in trees. Soil C/N profiles of shrub tundra sites and woodland sites showed similarities with forest site soils at surface and tundra site soils at depth. We hypothesize that tundra systems transformed to forest systems in this area under a progression of permafrost degradation and enhanced drainage. On the basis of C pool estimates for the different ecosystem types, conversion of tundra sites to forest may have resulted in a net loss of > 7.8 kg C/m2, since aboveground C gains were more than offset by belowground C losses to decomposition in the tundra sites. Tree line advance therefore might not increase C storage in high-latitude ecosystems and thus might not, as previously suggested, act as a negative feedback to warming. Key to this hypothesis and to its projection to future climate response is the fate of soil carbon upon warming and permafrost drainage. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences

Relationships among net primary productivity, nutrients and climate in tropical rain forest: A pan-tropical analysis

Tropical rain forests play a dominant role in global biosphere-atmosphere CO 2 exchange. Although climate and nutrient availability regulate net primary production (NPP) and decomposition in all terrestrial ecosystems, the nature and extent of such controls in tropical forests remain poorly resolved. We conducted a meta-analysis of carbon-nutrient-climate relationships in 113 sites across the tropical forest biome. Our analyses showed that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of aboveground NPP (ANPP) across all tropical forests, but this relationship was driven by distinct temperature differences between upland and lowland forests. Within lowland forests (< 1000 m), a regression tree analysis revealed that foliar and soil-based measurements of phosphorus (P) were the only variables that explained a significant proportion of the variation in ANPP, although the relationships were weak. However, foliar P, foliar nitrogen (N), litter decomposition rate (k), soil N and soil respiration were all directly related with total surface (0–10 cm) soil P concentrations. Our analysis provides some evidence that P availability regulates NPP and other ecosystem processes in lowland tropical forests, but more importantly, underscores the need for a series of large-scale nutrient manipulations – especially in lowland forests – to elucidate the most important nutrient interactions and controls.

Ecology Letters

Winter browse selection by white-tailed deer and implications for bottomland forest restoration in the Upper Mississippi River Valley, USA

White-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) forage selectively, modifying upland forest species composition and in some cases shifting ecosystems to alternative stable states. Few studies, however, have investigated plant selection by deer in bottomland forests. Herbaceous invasive species are common in wetlands and their expansion could be promoted if deer avoid them and preferentially feed on native woody species. We surveyed plant species composition and winter deer browsing in 14 floodplain forest restoration sites along the Upper Mississippi River and tributaries. Tree seedling density declined rapidly with increasing cover of invasive Phalaris arundinacea , averaging less than 1 per m 2 in all sites in which the grass was present. Deer browsed ∼46% of available tree seedling stems (branches) at mainland restorations, compared to ∼3% at island sites. Across all tree species, the number of browsed stems increased linearly with the number available and responded unimodally to tree height. Maximum browsing rates were observed on trees with high stem abundances (>10 per plant) and of heights between 50 and 150 cm. Deer preferred Ulmus americana and Acer saccharinum , and avoided Fraxinus pennsylvanica , Acer negundo , and Quercus spp. at mainland sites, and did not browse Phalaris arundinacea if present. Depending on plant growth responses to herbivory and the competitive effects of unbrowsed species, our results suggest that selective foraging could promote the expansion of invasive species and/or alter tree species composition in bottomland forest restorations. Islands may, however, serve as refuges from browsing on a regional scale.

Upper Mississippi River

Floodplains and climate change

Floodplains are landscape features that are periodically inundated by water from adjacent rivers (Opperman et al. 2010). Ecologically, functional floodplains are characterized by three primary elements: connectivity, flow regime, and spatial scale. Water quantity flowing over floodplains can vary greatly. Based on a flood’s effects on the floodplain, three flood categories have been defined: floodplain-activation floods, floodplain-maintenance floods, and floodplainresetting floods (Box 1). Several physical parameters determine the types of ecosystems on floodplains and the species they will support; these include temperature, water depth, water velocity, and hydrologic connectivity (Opperman et al. 2010). Natural ecosystems commonly found on floodplains include annual vegetation, forests, seasonal wetlands, and permanent ponds or wetlands (Whipple et al. 2012). Floodplains provide many valuable ecosystem services: attenuation of flood flows which reduces flood risk, filtration of surface water, recreation, fisheries, agriculture, biodiversity, food availability, and groundwater recharge, which contributes to more-sustained and cooler dry-season flows (Opperman et al. 2010). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Box 1 Floodplain-activation flood A small magnitude flood that occurs relatively frequently and produces characteristic ecological benefits such as food-web productivity and habitat creation for native fish spawning and rearing. Floodplain-maintenance flood A higher magnitude flood that, in addition to providing ecological benefits, results in geomorphic changes including bank erosion and deposition on the floodplain. Floodplain-resetting flood A very high-magnitude flood that occurs rarely and results in extensive geomorphic changes, such as the scouring of floodplain surfaces and changes in channel location due to avulsion. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

California

Large fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributes in driving climate-induced shifts is not understood. Future fire regimes could be characterized by many small fires or a few large fires. Large and small fires create and regulate distinct burn patterns, which may influence tree-species responses and post-fire successional trajectories. Here we investigated the effects of future fire-regime variability on the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China under climate change using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO) and ecosystem process model (LINKAGES). We simulated fire regimes using the LANDIS PRO fire module. We designed two fire scenarios (frequent, small fires and infrequent, large fires) to represent different fire regimes in terms of fire size. Results showed fire-catalyzed, climate-induced transitions from boreal to pioneer and temperate forest communities. Frequent, small fires resulted in 13% and 23% higher increases in pioneer and temperate species respectively, relative to infrequent, large fires. Therefore, species composition shifts were faster following frequent, small fires than infrequent, large fires. The results can help policymakers and forest managers determine tradeoffs among strategies to mitigate or adapt to climate change under altered fire regimes.

Great Xing'an Mountains