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Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Florida

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida

Handbook of acute toxicity of chemicals to fish and aquatic invertebrates : summaries of toxicity tests conducted at Columbia National Fisheries Research Laboratory, 1965-78

Acute toxicity is a major subject of research at Columbia National Fisheries Research Laboratory for evaluating the impact of toxic chemicals on fishery resources. The Laboratory has played a leading role in developing research technology for toxicity testing and data interpretation. In 1965-78, more than 400 chemicals were tested against a variety of invertebrates and fish species representative of both cold- and warm-water climates. The use of acute toxicity tests for assessing the potential hazard of chemical contaminants to aquatic organisms is well documented (Boyd 1957; Henderson et al. 1960; Sanders and Cope 1966; Macek and McAllister 1970). Static acute toxicity tests provide rapid and (within limits) reproducible concentration-response curves for estimating toxic effects of chemicals on aquatic organisms. These tests provide a database for determining relative toxicity of a large number of chemicals to a variety of species and for estimating acute effects of chemical spills on natural aquatic systems; they also assist in determining priority and design of additional toxicity studies. Acute toxicity tests usually provide estimates of the exposure concentration causing 50% mortality (LC50) to test organisms during a specified period of time. For certain invertebrates, the effective concentration is based on immobilization, or some other identifiable endpoint, rather than on lethality. The application of the LC50 has gained acceptance among toxicologists and is generally the most highly rated test for assessing potential adverse effects of chemical contaminants to aquatic life (Brungs and Mount 1978; American Institute for Biological Sciences 1978 a ). The literature contains numerous papers dealing with the acute toxicity of chemicals to freshwater organisms. However, there is a tremendous need for a concise compendium of toxicity data covering a large variety of chemicals and test species. This Handbook is a compilation of a large volume of acute toxicity data from the Columbia Laboratory and its field laboratories. It presents definitive acute toxicity data on 271 chemicals tested against a variety of freshwater invertebrates and fishes. The chemicals represent all major groups of pesticides, as well as numerous industrial chemicals. This compilation should serve as a useful database for the many agencies and organizations dealing with research and management programs concerned with the impact of chemicals on aquatic resources. The Columbia Laboratory has played a major role in developing currently used standard methodology for static acute toxicity testing. The use of standardized methodology greatly reduces variation in results. The data presented here have been carefully scrutinized to eliminate tests that failed to follow acceptable procedures. Handling of test organisms and procedures for static toxicity tests followed those described by Lennon and Walker (1964) and Macek and McAllister (1970), and conform well with those recommended by Brauhn and Schoettger (1975) and the Committee on Methods for Toxicity Tests with Aquatic Organisms (1975). The species of fish and invertebrates that were tested are listed in phylogenetic order in Tables 1 and 2. Fish were obtained from Federal and State hatcheries as either eggs or fry. Original stocks of invertebrates were collected and cultured from wild populations with no known source of contamination; these populations were replenished regularly. The invertebrates were cultured in the Laboratory by methods similar to those described by Sanders and Cope (1966). Test chemicals usually consisted of technical or analytical grade samples of known purity. Formulations of the chemicals were also tested when available. When purity of test chemicals was known, all calculated concentrations were based on percent active ingredients. Stock solutions were prepared immediately before each test, with commercial grade acetone as the carrier solvent. Occasionally, ethanol or dimethyl-formamide was substituted. Solvent concentrations did not exceed 0.5 mL/L in final dilution water. Test water (dilution water) was reconstituted from deionized water of at least 10 6 ohms resistivity by the addition of appropriate reagent grade chemicals (Marking 1969). Water was buffered to maintain a pH of 7.2 to 7.5, an alkalinity of 30 to 35 mg/L, and a hardness of 40 to 50 mg/L as CaCO 3 . Test water was mixed thoroughly and aerated before transfer into test chambers. Fish were acclimated to dilution water by gradually changing the water in acclimated tanks from 100% well water to 100% reconstituted water over a 1- to 3-day period at the desired testing temperature. Invertebrates were acclimated from well water to dilution water over a 4- to 6-h period. Toxicity tests were conducted under static conditions without aeration, and the organisms were not fed during acclimation or testing. Temperature of test solutions was maintained within ± 1°C of that required for a given test. Toxicity tests with fish were conducted in 18.9-liter (5-gal) wide-mouthed jars containing 15 liters of test solution. Fingerling fish weighing 0.2 to 1.5 g were tested at each concentration. Caution was taken not to exceed 0.8 g of test organisms per liter of solution. Duplicate test chambers were used to accommodate larger fish. Test chambers varied in size for invertebrates, depending on the species used; volume of test solution ranged from 0.25 to 4 liters. At least 10 organisms were exposed to each concentration for all definitive tests. At least six concentrations were used per toxicity test. The tests began upon initial exposure to the toxicant and continued for 96 h. Immobilization tests with invertebrates were conducted for only 48 h. The number of dead or affected organisms in each test chamber were recorded and the dead organisms were removed every 24 h; general observations on the condition of test organisms were also recorded at these times. Toxicity data were analyzed by a statistical method described by Litchfield and Wilcoxon (1949) to determine LC50 (theoretical estimate of the concentration lethal to 50% of the test animals) and 95% confidence intervals. This method is recommended by the American Public Health Association (1971) and by Sprague (1969) for determining median lethal concentrations. The procedure is easily modified for computing a single LC50 when replicate tests are performed.

Resource Publication

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina

Hydrological information products for the Off-Project Water Program of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement

The Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) was developed by a diverse group of stakeholders, Federal and State resource management agencies, Tribal representatives, and interest groups to provide a comprehensive solution to ecological and water-supply issues in the Klamath Basin. The Off-Project Water Program (OPWP), one component of the KBRA, has as one of its purposes to permanently provide an additional 30,000 acre-feet of water per year on an average annual basis to Upper Klamath Lake through "voluntary retirement of water rights or water uses or other means as agreed to by the Klamath Tribes, to improve fisheries habitat and also provide for stability of irrigation water deliveries." The geographic area where the water rights could be retired encompasses approximately 1,900 square miles. The OPWP area is defined as including the Sprague River drainage, the Sycan River drainage downstream of Sycan Marsh, the Wood River drainage, and the Williamson River drainage from Kirk Reef at the southern end of Klamath Marsh downstream to the confluence with the Sprague River. Extensive, broad, flat, poorly drained uplands, valleys, and wetlands characterize much of the study area. Irrigation is almost entirely used for pasture. To assist parties involved with decisionmaking and implementation of the OPWP, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Klamath Tribes and other stakeholders, created five hydrological information products. These products include GIS digital maps and datasets containing spatial information on evapotranspiration, subirrigation indicators, water rights, subbasin streamflow statistics, and return-flow indicators. The evapotranspiration (ET) datasets were created under contract for this study by Evapotranspiration, Plus, LLC, of Twin Falls, Idaho. A high-resolution remote sensing technique known as Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration (METRIC) was used to create estimates of the spatial distribution of ET. The METRIC technique uses thermal infrared Landsat imagery to quantify actual evapotranspiration at a 30-meter resolution that can be related to individual irrigated fields. Because evaporation uses heat energy, ground surfaces with large ET rates are left cooler as a result of ET than ground surfaces that have less ET. As a consequence, irrigated fields appear in the Landsat images as cooler than nonirrigated fields. Products produced from this study include total seasonal and total monthly (April-October) actual evapotranspiration maps for 2004 (a dry year) and 2006 (a wet year). Maps showing indicators of natural subirrigation were also provided by this study. "Subirrigation" as used here is the evapotranspiration of shallow groundwater by plants with roots that penetrate to or near the water table. Subirrigation often occurs at locations where the water table is at or above the plant rooting depth. Natural consumptive use by plants diminishes the benefit of retiring water rights in subirrigated areas. Some agricultural production may be possible, however, on subirrigated lands for which water rights are retired. Because of the difficulty in precisely mapping and quantifying subirrigation, this study presents several sources of spatially mapped data that can be used as indicators of higher subirrigation probability. These include the floodplain boundaries defined by stream geomorphology, water-table depth defined in Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) soil surveys, and soil rooting depth defined in NRCS soil surveys. The two water-rights mapping products created in the study were "points of diversion" (POD) and "place of use" (POU) for surface-water irrigation rights. To create these maps, all surface-water rights data, decrees, certificates, permits, and unadjudicated claims within the entire 1,900 square mile study area were aggregated into a common GIS geodatabase. Surface-water irrigation rights within a 5-mile buffer of the study area were then selected and identified. The POU area was then totaled by water right for primary and supplemental water rights. The maximum annual volume (acre-feet) allowed under each water right also was calculated using the POU area and duty (allowable annual irrigation application in feet). In cases where a water right has more than one designated POD, the total volume for the water right was equally distributed to each POD listed for the water right. Because of this, mapped distribution of diversion rates for some rights may differ from actual practice. Water-right information in the map products was from digital datasets obtained from the Oregon Water Resources Department and was, at the time acquired, the best available compilation of water-right information available. Because the completeness and accuracy of the water-right data could not be verified, users are encouraged to check directly with the Oregon Water Resources Department where specific information on individual rights or locations is essential. A dataset containing streamflow statistics for 72 subbasins in the study area was created for the study area. The statistics include annual flow durations (5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 95-percent exceedances) and 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) and 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low flows, and were computed using regional regression equations based on measured streamflow records in the region. Daily streamflow records used were adjusted as needed for crop consumptive use; therefore the statistics represent streamflow under more natural conditions as though irrigation diversions did not exist. Statistics are provided for flow rates resulting from streamflow originating from within the entire drainage area upstream of the subbasin pour point (referring to the outlet of the contributing drainage basin). The statistics were computed for the purpose of providing decision makers with the ability to estimate streamflow that would be expected after water conservation techniques have been implemented or a water right has been retired. A final product from the study are datasets of indicators of the potential for subsurface return flow of irrigation water from agricultural areas to nearby streams. The datasets contain information on factors such as proximity to surface-water features, geomorphic floodplain characteristics, and depth to water. The digital data, metadata, and example illustrations for the datasets described in this report are available on-line from the USGS Water Resources National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) Node Website http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getgislist or from the U.S. Government website DATA.gov at http://www.data.gov with links provided in a Microsoft® Excel® workbook in appendix A.

California;Oregon

High-water marks from Hurricane Sandy for coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, October 2012

Because coastal areas in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), under a mission agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, collected storm tide high-water marks in those coastal areas. This effort was undertaken to better understand the areal extent and impact of storm tides resulting from strong storms. On October 27–29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved up the eastern coast of the United States after passing over the Bahamas. On October 29 at about 7:30 p.m. eastern daylight time, Hurricane Sandy made landfall its final time near Brigantine, New Jersey, with recorded wind speeds of about 80 miles per hour. The damages from Hurricane Sandy exceeded $50 billion in total, making it the second most costly Atlantic hurricane at that time, second only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Hurricane Sandy also resulted in 147 deaths, and about 650,000 homes and many businesses being damaged along the eastern coast of the United States. The severity of Hurricane Sandy’s effects resulted in presidential disaster declarations being declared in 10 States from Virginia to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia in the months following Hurricane Sandy; the list of States affected included Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. In response to the approach of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS deployed 60 temporary storm tide sensors and 2 temporary real-time rapid deployment gages to collect tide elevation data during the storm along the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. This activity was done from Virginia to Maine before the storm. Following Hurricane Sandy, in October and November 2012, 371 storm tide high-water marks were identified and flagged in the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water marks near USGS temporary storm tide sensors, real-time rapid deployment gages, and streamgages affected by the tides as well as high-water marks on Block Island, R.I., and Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, Mass., were surveyed at the same time the high-water marks were identified and flagged in October and November 2012. The remaining high-water marks flagged during October and November 2012 were surveyed from December 2013 through June 2014 and in December 2016. Elevations of all high-water marks were referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and horizontal coordinates to the North American Datum of 1983 using the Global Navigation Satellite System, survey-grade Digital Global Positioning System receivers, and total station surveying equipment. Of the 371 storm tide high-water marks flagged following Hurricane Sandy, only 364 high-water marks were surveyed; the remaining 7 could not be found or had been destroyed when locations were revisited to conduct surveys. The 157 high-water marks surveyed in Connecticut had elevations that ranged from 2.5 to 12.2 feet (ft) with an average elevation of 8.1 ft and a median elevation of 8.3 ft. The 76 high-water marks in Rhode Island had elevations that ranged from 3.6 to 16.2 ft and averaged 7.1 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. The 131 high-water marks in Massachusetts had elevations that ranged from 2.8 to 22.7 ft and averaged 7.3 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. Individual information on the location, type, accuracy, and elevation of the 371 high-water marks can be found in an accompanying USGS data release and at the USGS Flood Event Viewer website for Hurricane Sandy ( https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/#Sandy ). The high-water marks along the coast line of Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts, including Nantucket, generally had higher storm tide elevations than the coast line of Rhode Island including Block Island and southern Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard. The high-water mark elevations compare well with recorded peak-storm tide data at USGS temporary storm tide sensors and real-time rapid deployment gages deployed for Hurricane Sandy in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water mark data collected following Hurricane Sandy will be used by Federal, State, and local government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, universities, and the public for better understanding the areal extent and impact of the storm tides. Additionally, these data can be used for such activities as land-use planning, flood risk studies, flood resiliency studies, and coastal modeling. These data from this historic storm can be compared with other regional hurricanes and tropical storms for planning into the future.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island

Flow recommendations for maintaining riparian vegetation along the Upper Missouri River, Montana

Montana Power Company, Inc. (MPC) submitted a final license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 30, 1992. In this application, MPC proposed a plan for the protection of fish, wildlife, habitat, and water-quality resources. One concern was maintenance of woody riparian vegetation along the Missouri River, especially along the Wild and Scenic reach of the river, where the riparian forest occurs in relatively small discontinuous stands. The objectives of this project were 1) to recommend flows that would protect and enhance riparian forests along the Missouri River, and 2) to develop elements of an environmental monitoring program that could be used to assess the effectiveness of the recommended flows. Plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) is the key structural component of riparian forests along the Missouri River. Therefore, we focused our analysis on factors affecting populations of this species. Previous work had demonstrated that the age structure of cottonwood populations is strongly influenced by aspects of flow that promote successfully establishment. In this study our approach was to determine the precise age of plains cottonwood trees growing along the Upper Missouri River and to relate years of establishment to the flow record. Our work was carried out between Coal Banks Landing and the Fred G. Robinson Bridge within the Wild and Scenic portion of the Missouri River. This segment of the river occupies a narrow valley and exhibits little channel migration. Maps and notes from the journals of Lewis and Clark (1804-1806) suggest that the present distribution and abundance of cottonwoods within the study reach is generally similar to presettlement conditions. Flows in the study reach are influenced by a number of dams and diversions, most importantly, Canyon Ferry and Tiber Dams. Although flow regulation has decreased peak flows and increased low flows, the gross seasonal pattern of flow has not been greatly altered. Most cottonwood establishment in our study reach occurred in years with a peak mean daily flow greater than 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs), or in the two years following such a flow. These years include 35 out of the 111 years of record, and account for establishment of 47 of 60 trees examined, a highly significant relationship. Infrequent establishment of cottonwood trees is not the result of scarcity of seed or seedlings. In the study reach seedlings become established most years on bare, relatively low surfaces deposited by the river. However, the high elevation of establishment of all trees dating to before 1978 indicates that only individuals established on high flood deposits are able to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. In order to maintain the present abundance of plains cottonwood in the study area we recommend flood flows in excess of 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs) measures as mean daily discharge at Fort Benton (U.S. Geological Survey gage 06090800) with a recurrence interval of approximately 9 years. Because cottonwood seeds remain viable for only a few weeks, and because seedling require a moist, bare surface, we further recommend maintenance of the historic timing of flooding with peak flood flows occurring between mid-May and late-June. Flow is not the only factor influencing cottonwood regeneration along this reach of the Missouri River. Land management, especially cattle grazing, is clearly having an impact, and changes in cottonwood populations could be expected if these practices were altered. However, the dependence of cottonwood establishment on high flow is clear in this reach in spite of the effects of other factors. Given the value of the resource, we strongly suggest establishment of a monitoring program to determine the effectiveness of the recommended flows and to provide the data necessary for refining them. We recommend a monitoring program that would include: 1) ten permanent, widely space channel cross sections for annual measurement of channel geometry and cottonwood establishment, growth, and survival; 2) five livestock enclosures to monitor the influence of grazing in the study area; and 3) low-elevation aerial photography of the reach every five years and after every flood to detect changes in channel geometry and forested area. Because cottonwood establishment is episodic, a long-term commitment to the monitoring effort is essential. In addition, cross sections and exclosures should be easy enough to access that measurements during flood years are possible.

Montana

Enhancements to the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) groundwater-flow model and simulations of sustainable water-level scenarios

Arkansas continues to be one of the largest users of groundwater in the Nation. As such, long-term planning and management are essential to ensure continued availability of groundwater and surface water for years to come. The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) model was developed previously as a tool to evaluate groundwater availability within the Mississippi embayment, which encompasses much of eastern Arkansas where the majority of groundwater is used. The Arkansas Water Plan is being updated for the first time since 1990 and serves as the State’s primary, comprehensive water-resources planning and guidance document. The MERAS model was selected as the best available tool for evaluation of specific water-use pumping scenarios that are currently being considered by the State of Arkansas. The model, developed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program’s assessment of the Nation’s groundwater availability, is proving to be invaluable to the State as it works toward development of a sustained yield pumping strategy. One aspect of this investigation was to evaluate multiple methods to improve the match of observed to simulated groundwater levels within the Mississippi River Valley alluvial and middle Claiborne (Sparta) aquifers in the MERAS model. Five primary methods were evaluated: (1) explicit simulation of evapotranspiration (ET), (2) upgrade of the Multi-Node Well (MNW2) Package, (3) geometry improvement within the Streamflow Routing (SFR) Package, (4) parameter estimation of select aquifer properties with pilot points, and (5) modification of water-use estimates. For the planning purposes of the Arkansas Water Plan, three scenarios were developed to evaluate potential future conditions: (1) simulation of previously optimized pumping values within the Mississippi River Valley alluvial and the middle Claiborne aquifers, (2) simulated prolonged effects of pumping at average recent (2000–5) rates, and (3) simulation of drawdown constraints on most pumping wells. The explicit simulation of ET indicated little, if any, improvement of model fit at the expense of much longer simulation time and was not included in further simulations. Numerous attempts to fully utilize the MNW2 Package were unsuccessful in achieving model stability, though modifications made to the water-use dataset remained intact. Final improvements in the residual statistics may be attributed to a single method, or a cumulative effect of all other methods (geometry improvement with the SFR Package, parameter estimation with pilot points, and modification of water-use estimates) attempted. The root mean squared error (RMSE) for all observations in the model is 22.65 feet (ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 741.66 ft. The RMSE for water-level observations in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is 14.14 ft (an improvement of almost 3 ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 297.25 ft. The RMSE for the Sparta aquifer is 32.02 ft (an improvement of approximately 3 ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 634.94 ft. Three scenarios were developed to utilize a steady-state version of the MERAS model. Scenario 1 was developed to use pumping values resulting from the optimization of baseline rates (typically 1997 pumping rates) from previous optimization modeling of the alluvial aquifer and the Sparta aquifer. Scenario 2 was developed to evaluate the prolonged effects of pumping from the alluvial aquifer at recent pumping rates. Scenario 3A was designed to evaluate withdrawal limits from the alluvial aquifer by utilizing drawdown constraints equal to an altitude of approximately 50 percent of the predevelopment saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer or 30 ft above the bottom of the alluvial aquifer, whichever was greater. The results of scenario 1 indicate large water-level declines throughout the area of the alluvial aquifer, regardless of the substitution of the optimized pumping values from earlier model simulations. The results of scenario 2 also indicate large areas of water-level decline, as compared to half of the saturated thickness, throughout the alluvial aquifer. The results of scenario 3A reveal some effects from the inclusion of multiple aquifers in a single simulation. The initial configuration of scenario 3A resulted in water levels well below the defined drawdown constraint, and some areas of depleted aquifer (water levels that are near or below the bottom of the aquifer) in east-central Arkansas. A fourth simulation (scenario 3B) was configured to apply the same drawdown constraints from the alluvial aquifer wells to the Sparta aquifer wells in the depleted area. These drawdown constraints reduce leakage from the alluvial aquifer to the underlying Sparta aquifer. This configuration did not produce depleted areas within the alluvial aquifer. Scenarios 3A and 3B indicate that even when pumping is limited in the alluvial aquifer, water levels in the alluvial aquifer may continue to decline in some areas because of pumping in the underlying Sparta aquifer.

Arkansas

New York Water-Use Program and data, 2000

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been publishing estimates of water use every five years since 1950 in the Estimated use of water in the United States circular series. In 1978, the Congress expanded the water-use activities of the USGS by establishing the National Water-Use Information Program (NWUIP). The water-use program in New York is part of the NWUIP and is based on a cooperative agreement between the USGS and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). Together, the NYSDEC and USGS collect, compile, and store water-use data to provide a data base that is useful for water-resources management. The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) collects a wide variety of data elements relating to public-water supplies such as the name and location of the suppliers and the amount of water withdrawn. This valuable information is provided to the water-use program. The information summarized in this fact sheet has been published in U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1268, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2000 which can be accessed at http://water.usgs.gov/watuse . The 2000 data (by county) as well as previous years data can also be found at that site. Water withdrawal refers to the removal of water from the ground or its diversion from a surface-water source for use. Withdrawals of fresh and saline surface water and fresh ground water during 2000 were included in this study. The categories considered in this data compilation are public-water supply; deliveries to domestic from public-water suppliers and domestic self-supplied; industrial; thermoelectric-power generation; and irrigation. Saline withdrawals were included for the categories of industrial, mining, and thermoelectric-power generation. Saline water is a significant percentage of total withdrawals for the category of thermoelectric-power generation. The categories of withdrawal for which data were compiled for the 2000 calendar year do not include some of the categories that were addressed in 1995 and published in USGS Circular 1200, Estimated use of water in the United States in 1995. For the 2000 compilation, emphasis was placed on ensuring the quality of data that were collected, rather than attempting to address all categories and data elements on a national scale. Categories that were included in 1995 but not in 2000 are commercial; livestock; mining; the non-withdrawal categories of hydroelectric-power generation, wastewater treatment and public-water supply deliveries to commercial and industrial users. Any comparison made between 1995 and 2000 data need to be made with these category differences in mind. In 1995, the categories of commercial, livestock, and mining were about 280 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) of freshwater and 2.7 percent of total freshwater withdrawals. In addition, the report, New York water-use program and data, 1995, U. S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 014-02, concentrated on freshwater and did not include saline-surface water withdrawals in the figures. Any comparison between the 1995 and 2000 figures need to be made with this in mind. In 2000, about 12,100 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) of fresh surface and ground water and saline surface water were withdrawn from New York's rivers, streams, lakes, estuaries, bays, and aquifers for the categories addressed. Freshwater withdrawals comprised about 7,080 Mgal/d of this total. With a total population of 18,980,000 people in New York State, the total freshwater withdrawals represent an average of more than 370 gal/d (gallons per day) per capita. The amounts of fresh surface water, ground water, saline surface water, and total amounts of water withdrawn by categories of water use in New York during 2000 are shown. Many of New York's large population centers have developed along major rivers and lakes; as a result, more than 87 percent of the freshwater withdrawals in 2000 were from surface-water bodies (6,190 Mgal/d). More than 65 percent of fresh surface-water withdrawals were for thermoelectric-power generation, and about 32 percent were by public-water suppliers. Of the 890 Mgal/d of ground water withdrawn in 2000 statewide, 65 percent was withdrawn by public-water suppliers, and about 16 percent each by industrial and domestic users. More freshwater is withdrawn by thermoelectric plants than for any other water-use category. Of the freshwater withdrawals within New York, about 57 percent were made by fossil-fuel and nuclear powerplants; about 36 percent were for public-water supply; about 4.2 percent was by industrial users, 2.0 percent by domestic users, and about 0.5 percent was for irrigation. Total withdrawals, total surface-water and fresh ground-water withdrawals, in New York are plotted, by county. The categories of public-water supply and thermoelectric power account for the withdrawals that exceed 100 Mgal/d per county. The counties that have public-water supply withdrawals that exceed 100 Mgal/d are: Delaware (453 Mgal/d), Ulster, Nassau, Erie, Sullivan, Westchester, Suffolk, Putnam, and Schoharie (115 Mgal/d). These large withdrawals are from surface water except in Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island, where groundwater is the sole source of freshwater. Delaware, Putnam, Schoharie, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester Counties, in the southeastern part of the State, provide surface water to the aqueducts that supply drinking water to New York City. In 2000, the average amount of water delivered to New York City from these counties averaged 1,260 Mgal/d. Erie County, in western New York, had withdrawals totaling 176 Mgal/d of fresh surface water for public-water supply. More freshwater and more total water is withdrawn for the generation of thermoelectric power than for any other water-use category. All of the withdrawals are of surface water. Seven counties have total thermoelectric withdrawals that exceed 500 Mgal/d: Queens (1,690 Mgal/d), Westchester, Oswego, Suffolk, Erie, Orange, and Rockland (560 Mgal/d). The counties of Oswego, Erie, and Orange withdrew only fresh surface water for thermoelectric plants. Their sources of water were Lake Ontario (Oswego County), Niagara River (Erie County), and the Hudson River (Orange County). Queens, Westchester, Suffolk, and Rockland withdraw only saline surface water for the production of thermoelectric power. The sources of saline surface water for the thermoelectric plants in the counties of Queens, Westchester, Suffolk, and Rockland are the estuaries of the Hudson River and East River and bays of the Atlantic Ocean (Long Island Sound and the eastern shore of Jamaica Bay). New York ranked eighth in the United States in 2000 in total withdrawals (fresh and saline water); the States that exceeded New York in total withdrawals are those that have large populations (such as California and Texas) and (or) use large quantities of water for irrigation (such as Florida and Idaho). Of the categories considered for the 2000 compilation, New York did not have nationally significant withdrawals for either irrigation or industrial water use. New York ranked third after California and Texas in withdrawals of freshwater for public supply, in the withdrawal of fresh surface water for public-water supply, in total population, and in number of people served by public-water supplies. New York ranked sixth in total withdrawals for the generation of thermoelectric power and total surface-water withdrawals. Finally, New York ranked fourth in withdrawals of ground water for public supply.

Open-File Report

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

Groundwater withdrawals from the Upper Cretaceous-age Middendorf aquifer in South Carolina have created a large, regional cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Middendorf aquifer in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, South Carolina. Groundwater-level declines of as much as 249 feet have been observed in wells over the past 125 years and are a result of groundwater use for public water supply, irrigation, and private industry. To address the concerns of users of the Middendorf aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mount Pleasant Waterworks (MPW), recalibrated an existing groundwater-flow model to incorporate additional groundwater-use and water-level data since 2008. This recalibration process consisted of a technique of parameter estimation that uses regularized inversion and employs “pilot points” for spatial hydraulic property characterization. The groundwater-flow system of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-2000. After the model recalibration, the following six predictive water-management scenarios were created to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area: Scenario 1—maximize MPW reverse-osmosis plant capacity by increasing groundwater withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), which was the amount withdrawn in 2015, to 8.58 Mgal/d; Scenario 2—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 0.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 3—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 1.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 4—maximize MPW well capacity by increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 10.16 Mgal/d; Scenario 5—minimize MPW surface-water purchase from the Charleston Water System by adding supply wells and increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 12.16 Mgal/d; and Scenario 6—same as Scenario 1, but with he addition of quarterly model stress periods to simulate seasonal variations in the groundwater withdrawals. Results from the simulations indicated further decline of groundwater levels creating cones of depressions near pumping wells in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2015 and 2050 for all six scenarios. Simulation results from Scenario 1 showed an average decline of about 150 feet in the groundwater levels of the MPW production wells. Simulated hydrographs for two area observation wells illustrate the gradual decline in groundwater levels with overall changes in water-level altitudes of –92 and –33 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 121 feet between 2015 and 2050. Scenarios 2 and 3 have the same pumping rates as Scenario 1 for the MPW production wells; however, a single hypothetical pumping well was added in the Middendorf aquifer near the town of Moncks Corner, South Carolina. This hypothetical pumping well has a withdrawal rate of 0.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 2 and 1.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 3. A comparison to the 2050 Scenario 1 simulation indicates groundwater altitudes for Scenarios 2 and Scenario 3 are 3 feet and 8 feet lower, respectively, at the MPW production wells. Scenario 4 simulates the maximum pumping capacity of 10.16 Mgal/d for the MPW network of production wells. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to –359 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 116 and 41 feet, respectively. Simulated differences in groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field indicate a water-level decline of 164 feet between 2015 and 2050. Scenario 5 is a modification of Scenario 4 with the addition of two new MPW production wells. For this scenario, the MPW network of production wells were simulated the same as in Scenario 4, but withdrawals from the two new production wells were added in 2020. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to – 405 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 143 and 51 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 199 feet between 2015 and 2050. Scenario 6 is a modification of Scenario 1, in which 140 additional quarterly stress periods were added to simulate MPW seasonal demands. Simulated groundwater altitudes for Scenario 6 declined to –353 feet during 2050. For Scenario 6, simulated hydrographs for two observation wells and the hypothetical observation well show similar groundwater-level declines as seen in Scenario 1, but with seasonal fluctuations of as much as 56 feet in the hypothetical observation well. Water budgets for the model area immediately surrounding Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, were calculated for 2015 and for 2050. The water budget for 2015 is equal for all of the scenarios because it represents the year prior to the hypothetical pumping beginning in 2016. The largest flow component in the 2015 water budget for the Mount Pleasant area is discharge to wells at a rate of 4.17 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.23 Mgal/d flows laterally out of the Middendorf aquifer in this area of the model due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Flow into this zone consists predominantly of lateral flow within the Middendorf aquifer at 4.08 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.02 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Vertically, 0.06 Mgal/d flows down from the Middendorf confining unit located above the Middendorf aquifer, and 0.25 Mgal/d flows up from the Cape Fear confining unit below. The largest flow component in the 2050 water budget for all six scenarios is discharge to wells in the Mount Pleasant area at rates between 8.89 and 12.47 Mgal/d. Flow into this zone consists mostly of lateral flow between 8.47 and 11.77 Mgal/d within the Middendorf aquifer. Between 0.003 and 0.46 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Between 0.004 and 0.15 Mgal/d flows laterally out of this zone into adjacent areas of the Middendorf aquifer due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Finally, between 0.15 and 0.22 Mgal/d flows vertically into this zone from confining units above and below the Middendorf aquifer.

South Carolina

Simulation of groundwater flow and hydrologic effects of groundwater withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Pinelands of southern New Jersey

The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is an important source of present and future water supply in southern New Jersey. Because this unconfined aquifer system also supports sensitive wetland and aquatic habitats within the New Jersey Pinelands (Pinelands), water managers and policy makers need up-to-date information, data, and projections that show the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on these habitats. Finite-difference groundwater flow models (MODFLOW) were constructed for three drainage basins (McDonalds Branch Basin, 14.3 square kilometers (km 2 ); Morses Mill Stream Basin, 21.63 km 2 ; and Albertson Brook Basin, 52.27 km 2 ) to estimate the effects of potential increases in groundwater withdrawals on water levels and the base-flow portion of streamflow, in wetland and aquatic habitats. Three models were constructed for each drainage basin: a transient model consisting of twenty-four 1-month stress periods (October 2004 through September 2006); a transient model to simulate the 5- to 10-day aquifer tests that were performed as part of the study; and a high-resolution, steady-state model used to assess long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. All models were constructed with the same eight-layer structure. The smallest horizontal cell dimensions among the three model areas were 150 meters (m) for the 24-month transient models, 10 m for the steady-state models, and 3 m for the transient aquifer-test models. Boundary flows of particular interest to this study and represented separately are those for wetlands, streams, and evapotranspiration. The final variables calibrated from both transient models were then used in steady-state models to assess the long-term effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Results of aquifer tests conducted in the three study areas illustrate the effects of withdrawals on water levels in wetlands and on base flow. Pumping stresses at aquifer-test sites resulted in measurable drawdown in each observation well installed for the tests. The magnitude of drawdown in shallow wetland observation wells at the end of pumping ranged from 5.5 to 16.7 centimeters (cm). The stresses induced by the respective tests reduced the flow of the smallest stream (McDonalds Branch) by 75 percent and slightly reduced flow in a side channel of Morses Mill Stream, but did not measurably affect the flow of Morses Mill Stream or Albertson Brook. Results of aquifer-test simulations were used to refine the estimates of hydraulic properties used in the models and to confirm the ability of the model to replicate observed hydrologic responses to pumping. Steady-state sensitivity simulation results for a variety of single well locations and depths were used to define overall “best-case” (smallest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) and “worst-case” (greatest effect on wetland water levels and base flow) groundwater withdrawal configurations. “Best-case” configurations are those for which the extent of the wetland areas within a 1-kilometer (km) radius of the withdrawal well is minimized, the well is located at least 100 m and as far from wetland boundaries as possible, and the withdrawal is from a deep well (50–90 m deep). “Worst-case” configurations are those for which the extent of wetlands within a 1-km radius of the withdrawal well is maximized, the well is located 100 m or less from a wetland boundary, and the withdrawal is from a relatively shallow well (30–67 m deep). “Best-” and “worst-case” simulations were applied by locating hypothetical wells across the study areas and assigning groundwater withdrawals so that the sum of the withdrawals for the basin is equal to 5, 10, 15, and 30 percent of overall recharge. The results were compared to the results of simulations of no groundwater withdrawals. Results for withdrawals of 5 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 1.5 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 9.7 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 5.1 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 8.6 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 30 percent of recharge show that the area of wetland water-level decline that exceeded 15 cm was as much as 70 percent of the total wetland area for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 84 percent of the total wetland area for the “worst-case” simulations. For the same withdrawals, base-flow reduction was as much as 30 percent for the “best-case” simulations and as much as 51 percent for the “worst-case” simulations. Results for withdrawals of 10 and 15 percent of recharge show decreased water levels and base flow that are intermediate between those simulated for 5 and 30 percent of recharge. Several approaches for applying the results of this study to other parts of the Pinelands were explored. An analytical-modeling technique based on the Thiem equation and image-well theory was developed to estimate local drawdown distributions resulting from withdrawals in other areas within the Pinelands. Results of example applications of this technique were compared with those of the numerical simulations used in this study and were shown to be useful. Differences among the three basins in the simulated percentage of basin wetlands affected by drawdown were found to be related to the proximity of wetlands to streams, the proximity of wetlands to pumped wells, and the vertical conductance of the aquifer system. These factors formed the basis for an index of wetland vulnerability to drawdown. An empirically-derived model based on the Gompertz function and the wetland vulnerability index was developed, tested, and shown to be an effective means to evaluate potential drawdown in wetlands at a basin scale throughout the Pinelands. Base-flow reduction can be estimated from generalized results of the numerical models, estimates of evapotranspiration reduction, or available regional groundwater flow models. These approaches could be used to evaluate alternative water-supply strategies and, in conjunction with ecological-modeling results, to determine maximum basin withdrawal rates within the limits of acceptable ecological change.

New Jersey

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri

Benthic processes affecting contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Multiple sampling trips during calendar years 2013 through 2015 were coordinated to provide measurements of interdependent benthic processes that potentially affect contaminant transport in Upper Klamath Lake (UKL), Oregon. The measurements were motivated by recognition that such internal processes (for example, solute benthic flux, bioturbation and solute efflux by benthic invertebrates, and physical groundwater-surface water interactions) were not integrated into existing management models for UKL. Up until 2013, all of the benthic-flux studies generally had been limited spatially to a number of sites in the northern part of UKL and limited temporally to 2–3 samplings per year. All of the benthic invertebrate studies also had been limited to the northern part of the lake; however, intensive temporal (weekly) studies had previously been completed independent of benthic-flux studies. Therefore, knowledge of both the spatial and temporal variability in benthic flux and benthic invertebrate distributions for the entire lake was lacking. To address these limitations, we completed a lakewide spatial study during 2013 and a coordinated temporal study with weekly sampling of benthic flux and benthic invertebrates during 2014. Field design of the spatially focused study in 2013 involved 21 sites sampled three times as the summer cyanobacterial bloom developed (that is, May 23 , June 13 , and July 3, 2013). Results of the 27-week, temporally focused study of one site in 2014 were summarized and partitioned into three periods (referred to herein as pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom periods), each period involving 9 weeks of profiler deployments, water column and benthic sampling. Partitioning of the pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom periods were based on water-column chlorophyll concentrations and involved the following date intervals, respectively: April 15 through June 10 , June 17 through August 13 , and August 20 through October 16, 2014. To examine dissolved-solute (0.2-micrometer [μm] filtered) benthic flux, sets of nonmetallic pore-water profilers (U.S. Patent 8,051,727 B1) were deployed. In 2013, the deployment of profilers at 21 UKL sites occurred at the beginning of the annual cyanobacterial bloom of Aphanizomenon flos–aquae (AFA), in the middle of the bloom period, and at the peak of the bloom. Coordinated benthic invertebrate collections also were made. Based on results from 2013, weekly deployments of profilers and collection of benthic invertebrate samples from late spring to early autumn were used to estimate temporal trends in solute flux and benthic invertebrate densities. Estimates of nutrient efflux by benthic invertebrates were determined in the spring and autumn from 2011 through 2013 and three times (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2015. This work extends UKL studies that began in 2006 to quantify the importance of benthic solute sources in the lake. In 2015, piezometers and thermistor sets were deployed to quantify potential groundwater exchange with the lake water column. Analysis of the 2013 soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) benthic flux indicated no effect of location (lake region), habitat, or sampling period, and the average lakewide flux values were consistent with earlier studies that had been confined to the northern region of UKL and adjacent wetlands. The 2014 study therefore focused on estimating temporal trends at a site within Ball Bay. During both 2013 and 2014 field studies, fluxes of macronutrients (soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonia) and micronutrients (iron [Fe] and manganese [Mn]) were consistently positive and increased prior to the initial AFA bloom, varied or lagged with water-column chlorophyll during the summer bloom period, then decreased after the cyanobacterial blooms, only to rebound toward pre-bloom conditions in the final weeks of sampling. These four solutes exhibited benthic loads greater than maximum riverine loads estimated during the spring and early summers of 2013 and 2014. However, consistently detectable concentrations for all four solutes provide no evidence that they consistently serve as the limiting nutrient for primary production in the lake. In contrast to the four solutes (SRP, ammonia, Fe, and Mn), benthic fluxes of dissolved arsenic (As) were both negative and positive (that is, the lakebed currently serves as both a source and a sink for dissolved As, depending on season). In a further contrast with SRP, ammonia, dissolved Fe, and Mn, dissolved-As riverine loads to UKL were of similar magnitude to benthic loads. A negative relationship between dissolved-As flux and water-column As over the 2014 temporal study provides a potential advantage for the management of water-quality in contrast to solutes, like SRP or ammonia, with consistently positive flux. The mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2013 was 12,610 individuals per square meter (n=63). Although benthic invertebrate density did not change over the study period, it was higher in littoral habitats than open-lake or trench habitats and higher in the northern region compared to the central or southern regions of UKL. Mean total benthic invertebrate density during 2014 was 19,726 individuals m −2 (n=27). Density during the pre-bloom and bloom periods of April 15 to August 13, 2014 (the first two thirds of the 2014 sampling period), were similar to 2013. However, benthic invertebrate density more than doubled during the latter one-third of the study, that is, the post-bloom period between August 20 to October 16, 2014. Oligochaeta, Chironomidae and Hirudinea represented well over 90 percent of the benthic fauna; Oligochaeta were twice as abundant as Chironomidae or Hirudinea, the latter two of which were similar in density. Benthic invertebrates may enhance dissolved-nutrient (or toxicant) transport across the sediment-water interface by (1) modifying diffusion-layer thicknesses and permeability through bioturbation, (2) enhancing advective flow across the interface through bioirrigation, and (3) excreting or expelling dissolved or particulate solutes directly into the overlying water column (Boudreau and Jorgensen, 2001). We evaluated SRP efflux via excretion for approximately 15 different major taxa in UKL. Once these measures were scaled, it was evident that benthic invertebrates potentially contribute approximately 1.5 times the amount of SRP to the water column of Upper Klamath Lake as diffusive SRP flux alone, measured in profiler deployments. Sets of piezometers and temperature loggers were deployed in UKL to obtain estimates of vertical advective solute flux. The pressure transducer installations, within the piezometers, did not perform as designed, rendering the head gradient data unreliable. However, in terms of future research, this field work did demonstrate the feasibility of collecting vertical gradient data with piezometer deployments. Advective flux estimates herein are based solely on heat-flow modeling based on temperature data from four lake sites, without use of transducer data. Given the magnitudes (both positive or negative) of the heat-transfer fluxes for SRP, relative to diffusive-flux and macroinvertebrate efflux measurements (all positive but spanning the same orders of magnitude), further examination of solute advective flux is recommended as a potential transport process to integrate into existing water-quality (for example, Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL]) models. As a complement to the biogeochemical focus of this study, initial analyses of suspended-particle (floc) characteristics and settling velocities from the water column were derived near the surface and lakebed at two UKL sites. To better understand changing particle characteristics during the AFA-bloom period, suspended particles were examined in 2015 using a LabSFLOC (LF), which is a Laboratory Spectral Flocculation Characteristics version of an In-Situ Settling Velocity instrument (INSSEV-LF). Particle characteristics and settling velocities were analyzed from the water column near the surface (sample dp_10 ) and lakebed (sample dp_90 ) at two lake sites (open-lake site ML and littoral site LS01). The term “floc” refers herein to suspended particles that may aggregate or disaggregate to change in size, composition, and settling velocity. During pre-bloom (May) conditions, where maximum suspended particulate matter concentration (SPMC) was 140 milligrams per liter (mg L −1 ) was now observed at site LS01 in close proximity to the bed, where D mean peaked at 305 μm, and the corresponding Ws mean was 3.9 millimeters per second (mm s −1 ). The high near-bed SPMC (828 mg L −1 ) experienced during post-bloom October 2015 at LS01 formed a benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) above the lake’s bed. Numerous low density, fast settling macrofloc-sized organic aggregates (D >160 μm) were observed (some up to 1 mm in size) near bed at LS01 both during the bloom and post-bloom conditions; many of these flocs displayed fibrous organic structures. In terms of mass settling fluxes, the post-bloom BNL produced a total MSF of 4,139 milligrams per square meter per second (mg m −2 s −1 ) (92.1 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized organic aggregates/cyanobacterial colonies); that was nearly three times the corresponding near-bed settling flux observed during the July 2015 bloom and 360 times greater than the pre-bloom conditions from May 2015 (98.8 percent and 14 percent of MSF credited to the macrofloc-sized fractions for those respective months). Such changes in the near-bed settling flux demonstrate the highly significant seasonal effects that the AFA bloom has on the floc depositional fluxes in UKL and highlights the importance of seasonal monitoring of these conditions in order to correctly parameterize the wide range in depositional characteristics and floc properties measured throughout UKL. Collectively, floc populations observed within UKL demonstrated a wide range in settling velocity (Ws) for a given particle size, D. Similarly, a given settling velocity was not associated with a specific particle size. This variability in particle characteristics and properties indicates the influence of varying floc effective density and its effect on mass and mass settling fluxes (MSF). The use of instruments, such as the INSSEV-LF, enables measuring the variability of settling velocity and its relation to particle density and size.

Oregon

Water-quality conditions, and constituent loads and yields in the Cambridge drinking-water source area, Massachusetts, water years 2005–07

The source water area for the drinking-water supply of the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts, encompasses major transportation corridors, as well as large areas of light industrial, commercial, and residential land use. Because of ongoing development in the drinking-water source area, the Cambridge water supply has the potential to be affected by a wide variety of contaminants. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored surface-water quality in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins, which compose the drinking-water source area, since 1997 (water year 1997) through continuous monitoring and discrete sample collection and, since 2004, through systematic collection of streamwater samples during base-flow and stormflow conditions at five primary sampling stations in the drinking-water source area. Four primary sampling stations are on small tributaries in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins; the fifth primary sampling station is on the main stem of Stony Brook and drains about 93 percent of the Cambridge drinking-water source area. Water samples also were collected at six secondary sampling stations, including Fresh Pond Reservoir, the final storage reservoir for the raw water supply. Storm runoff and base-flow concentrations of calcium (Ca), chloride (Cl), sodium (Na), and sulfate (SO 4 ) were estimated from continuous records of streamflow and specific conductance for six monitoring stations, which include the five primary sampling stations. These data were used to characterize current water-quality conditions, estimate loads and yields, and describe trends in Cl and Na in the tributaries and main-stem streams in the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins. These data also were used to describe how streamwater quality is affected by various watershed characteristics and provide information to guide future watershed management. Water samples were analyzed for physical properties and concentrations of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 , total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), caffeine, and a suite of 59 polar pesticides. Values of physical properties and constituent concentrations varied widely, particularly in samples from tributaries. Median concentrations of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO4 in samples collected in the Hobbs Brook Basin (39.8, 392, 207, and 21.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L), respectively) were higher than those for the Stony Brook Basin (17.8, 87.7, 49.7, and 14.7 mg/L, respectively). These differences in major ion concentrations are likely related to the low percentages of developed land and impervious area in the Stony Brook Basin. Concentrations of dissolved Cl and Na in samples, and those estimated from continuous records of specific conductance (particularly during base flow), often were greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) secondary drinking-water guideline for Cl (250 mg/L), the chronic aquatic-life guideline for Cl (230 mg/L), and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs drinking-water guideline for Na (20 mg/L). Mean annual flow-weighted concentrations of Ca, Cl, and Na were generally positively correlated with the area of roadway land use in the subbasins. Correlations between mean annual concentrations of Ca and SO 4 in base flow and total roadway, total impervious, and commercial-industrial land uses were statistically significant. Concentrations of TN (range of 0.42 to 5.13 mg/L in all subbasins) and TP (range of 0.006 to 0.80 mg/L in all subbasins) in tributary samples did not differ substantially between the Hobbs Brook and Stony Brook Basins. Concentrations of TN and TP in samples collected during water years 2004–07 exceeded proposed reference concentrations of 0.57 and 0.024 mg/L, in 94 and 56 percent of the samples, respectively. Correlations between annual flow-weighted concentrations of TN and percentages of recreational land use and water-body area were statistically significant; however, no significant relation was found between TP and available land-use information. The volume of streamflow affected water-quality conditions at the primary sampling stations. Turbidity and concentrations of TP were positively correlated with streamflow. In contrast, concentrations of major ions were negatively correlated with streamflow, indicating that these constituents were diluted during stormflows. Concentrations of TN were not correlated with streamflow. Twenty-five pesticides and caffeine were detected in water samples collected in the drinking-water source area and in raw water collected from the Cambridge water-treatment facility intake at the Fresh Pond Reservoir. Imidacloprid, norflurazon, and siduron were the most frequently detected pesticides with the frequency of detections ranging from about 24 to 41 percent. Caffeine was detected in about 37 percent of water samples at concentrations ranging from 0.003 to 1.82 micrograms per liter (μg/L). Although some of the detected pesticides degrade rapidly, norflurazon and siduron are relatively stable and are able to immigrate though the serial reservoir system. Concentrations of 2,4-D, carbaryl, imazaquin, MCPA (2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid), metsulfuron-methyl, norflurazon, siduron, and caffeine were detected more frequently in stormflow samples than in base-flow samples. Concentrations of pesticides did not exceed USEPA drinking-water guidelines or other health standards and were several orders of magnitude less than the lethal exposure level established for several fish species common to the drinking-water source area. Imidacloprid, an insecticide, was the only pesticide with a concentration exceeding available long-term aquatic-life guidelines. Several pesticides correlated significantly with the amount of recreational, residential, and commercial area in the tributary subbasins. Mean annual base-flow concentrations of caffeine correlated significantly with parking-lot land use. For most tributaries, about 70 percent of the annual loads of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 were associated with base flow. Upward temporal trends in annual loads of Cl and Na were identified on the basis of data for water years 1998 to 2008 for the outlet of the Cambridge Reservoir in the Hobbs Brook Basin; however, similar trends were not identified for the main stem of Stony Brook downstream from the reservoir. The proportions of the TN load attributed to base flow and stormflow were similar in each tributary. In contrast, more than 83 percent of the TP loads in the tributaries and about 73 percent of the TP load in main stem of Stony Brook were associated with stormflow. Mean annual yields of Ca, Cl, Na, and SO 4 in the Stony Brook Reservoir watershed, which represents most of the drinking-water source area, were 14, 85, 46, and 9 metric tons per square kilometer, respectively. Mean annual yields among the individual tributary subbasins varied extensively. Mean annual yields for the respective constituents increased with an increase in roadway and parking-lot area in the tributary subbasins. Mean annual yields of TN in the tributary subbasins ranged from about 740 to more than 1,200 kilograms per square kilometer and exceeded the yield for the main stem of Stony Brook at USGS station 01104460 upstream from the Stony Brook Reservoir. Mean annual yields estimated for the herbicides 2,4-D and imidacloprid ranged from 34 to 310 grams per square kilometer (g/km 2 ) and 3 to 170 g/km 2 , respectively. Annual loads for 2,4-D were entirely associated with stormflow. The largest annual load for imidacloprid was estimated for the main stem of Stony Brook; however, the highest annual yield for this pesticide, as well as for benomyl, carbaryl, metalaxyl, and propiconazole, was estimated for a tributary to the Stony Brook Reservoir that drains largely residential and recreational areas. Mean annual yields for the herbicide siduron ranged from 6.9 to 35 g/km 2 with most of the loads associated with stormflow. Mean annual yields for the insecticide diuron ranged from 2.1 to 4.4 g/km 2 . Annual yields of caffeine ranged from 11 to 410 g/km 2 .

Massachusetts