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. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment

Quality-assurance data for routine water analyses by the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Troy, New York - July 2003 through June 2005

The laboratory for analysis of low-ionic-strength water at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Center in Troy, N.Y., analyzes samples collected by USGS projects throughout the Northeast. The laboratory's quality-assurance program is based on internal and interlaboratory quality-assurance samples and quality-control procedures that were developed to ensure proper sample collection, processing, and analysis. The quality-assurance and quality-control data were stored in the laboratory's Lab Master data-management system, which provides efficient review, compilation, and plotting of data. This report presents and discusses results of quality-assurance and quality control samples analyzed from July 2003 through June 2005. Results for the quality-control samples for 20 analytical procedures were evaluated for bias and precision. Control charts indicate that data for five of the analytical procedures were occasionally biased for either high-concentration or low-concentration samples but were within control limits; these procedures were: acid-neutralizing capacity, total monomeric aluminum, pH, silicon, and sodium. Seven of the analytical procedures were biased throughout the analysis period for the high-concentration sample, but were within control limits; these procedures were: dissolved organic carbon, chloride, nitrate (ion chromatograph), nitrite, silicon, sodium, and sulfate. The calcium and magnesium procedures were biased throughout the analysis period for the low-concentration sample, but were within control limits. The total aluminum and specific conductance procedures were biased for the high-concentration and low-concentration samples, but were within control limits. Results from the filter-blank and analytical-blank analyses indicate that the procedures for 17 of 18 analytes were within control limits, although the concentrations for blanks were occasionally outside the control limits. The data-quality objective was not met for dissolved organic carbon. Sampling and analysis precision are evaluated herein in terms of the coefficient of variation obtained for triplicate samples in the procedures for 18 of the 22 analytes. At least 85 percent of the samples met data-quality objectives for all analytes except total monomeric aluminum (82 percent of samples met objectives), total aluminum (77 percent of samples met objectives), chloride (80 percent of samples met objectives), fluoride (76 percent of samples met objectives), and nitrate (ion chromatograph) (79 percent of samples met objectives). The ammonium and total dissolved nitrogen did not meet the data-quality objectives. Results of the USGS interlaboratory Standard Reference Sample (SRS) Project indicated good data quality over the time period, with ratings for each sample in the satisfactory, good, and excellent ranges or less than 10 percent error. The P-sample (low-ionic-strength constituents) analysis had one marginal and two unsatisfactory ratings for the chloride procedure. The T-sample (trace constituents)analysis had two unsatisfactory ratings and one high range percent error for the aluminum procedure. The N-sample (nutrient constituents) analysis had one marginal rating for the nitrate procedure. Results of Environment Canada's National Water Research Institute (NWRI) program indicated that at least 84 percent of the samples met data-quality objectives for 11 of the 14 analytes; the exceptions were ammonium, total aluminum, and acid-neutralizing capacity. The ammonium procedure did not meet data quality objectives in all studies. Data-quality objectives were not met in 23 percent of samples analyzed for total aluminum and 45 percent of samples analyzed acid-neutralizing capacity. Results from blind reference-sample analyses indicated that data-quality objectives were met by at least 86 percent of the samples analyzed for calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, pH, potassium, sodium, and sulfate. Data-quality objectives were not met by samples analyzed for fluoride.

Open-File Report

Manganese

Manganese is an essential element for modern industrial societies. Its principal use is in steelmaking, where it serves as a purifying agent in iron-ore refining and as an alloy that converts iron into steel. Although the amount of manganese consumed to make a ton of steel is small, ranging from 6 to 9 kilograms, it is an irreplaceable component in the production of this fundamental material. The United States has been totally reliant on imports of manganese for many decades and will continue to be so for at least the near future. There are no domestic reserves, and although some large low-grade resources are known, they are far inferior to manganese ores readily available on the international market. World reserves of manganese are about 630 million metric tons, and annual global consumption is about 16 million metric tons. Current reserves are adequate to meet global demand for several decades. Global resources in traditional land-based deposits, including both reserves and rocks sufficiently enriched in manganese to be ores in the future, are much larger, at about 17 billion metric tons. Manganese resources in seabed deposits of ferromanganese nodules and crusts are larger than those on land and have not been fully quantified. No production from seabed deposits has yet been done, but current research and development activities are substantial and may bring parts of these seabed resources into production in the future. The advent of economically successful seabed mining could substantially alter the current scenario of manganese supply by providing a large new source of manganese in addition to traditional land-based deposits. From a purely geologic perspective, there is no global shortage of proven ores and potential new ores that could be developed from the vast tonnage of identified resources. Reserves and resources are very unevenly distributed, however. The Kalahari manganese district in South Africa contains 70 percent of the world’s identified resources and about 25 percent of its reserves. South Africa, Brazil, and Ukraine together accounted for nearly 65 percent of reserves in 2013. The combination of total import reliance for manganese, the mineral commodity’s essential uses in our industrialized society, and the potential for supply disruptions because of the limited sources of the ore makes manganese among the most critical minerals for the United States. Manganese is the 12th most abundant element in Earth’s crust. Its concentration varies among common types of rocks, mostly in the range of from 0.1 to 0.2 percent. The highest quality manganese ores contain from 40 to 45 percent manganese. The formation of these ores requires specialized geologic conditions that concentrate manganese at several hundred times its average crustal abundance. The dominant processes in forming the world’s principal deposits take place in the oceans. As a result, most important manganese deposits occur in ancient marine sedimentary rocks that are now exposed on continents as a result of subsequent tectonic uplift and erosion. In many cases, other processes have further enriched these manganiferous sedimentary rocks to form some of today’s highest grade ores. Modern seabed resources of ferromanganese nodules cover vast areas of the present ocean floor and are still forming by complex interactions of marine microorganisms, manganese dissolved in seawater, and chemical processes on the seabed. Manganese is ubiquitous in soil, water, and air. It occurs most often in solid form but can become soluble under acidic conditions. Manganese mining, like any activity that disturbs large areas of Earth’s surface, has the potential to produce increases in manganese concentrations that could be harmful to humans or the environment if not properly controlled. Although manganese is an essential nutrient for humans and most other organisms, overexposure can lead to neurotoxicity in humans. Workers at manganese mining and processing facilities have the greatest potential to inhale manganese-rich dust. Without proper protective equipment, these workers may develop a permanent neurological disorder known as manganism. Each manganese mine is unique and presents its own suite of potential hazards and preventative measures. Likewise, various nations have their own sets of standards to ensure safe mining, isolation of mine waste, treatment of mine waters, and mine closure and restoration. Interest in mining trace metals contained in ferromanganese nodules and crusts on the seabed has increased rapidly in the past decade. Prime areas for future research include overcoming the technological challenges presented by mining as deep as 6,500 meters below sea level and understanding and mitigating the potential impacts of seabed mining on marine ecosystems.

Professional Paper

A new towed platform for the unobtrusive surveying of benthic habitats and organisms

Maps of coral ecosystems are needed to support many conservation and management objectives, as well as research activities. Examples include ground-truthing aerial and satellite imagery, characterizing essential habitat, assessing changes, and monitoring the progress of restoration efforts. To address some of these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Along-Track Reef-Imaging System (ATRIS), a boat-based sensor package for mapping shallow-water benthic environments. ATRIS consists of a digital still camera, a video camera, and an acoustic depth sounder affixed to a moveable pole. This design, however, restricts its deployment to clear waters less than 10 m deep. To overcome this limitation, a towed version has been developed, referred to as Deep ATRIS. The system is based on a light-weight, computer-controlled, towed vehicle that is capable of following a programmed diving profile. The vehicle is 1.3 m long with a 63-cm wing span and can carry a wide variety of research instruments, including CTDs, fluorometers, transmissometers, and cameras. Deep ATRIS is currently equipped with a high-speed (20 frames · s-1) digital camera, custom-built light-emitting-diode lights, a compass, a 3-axis orientation sensor, and a nadir-looking altimeter. The vehicle dynamically adjusts its altitude to maintain a fixed height above the seafloor. The camera has a 29° x 22° field-of-view and captures color images that are 1360 x 1024 pixels in size. GPS coordinates are recorded for each image. A gigabit ethernet connection enables the images to be displayed and archived in real time on the surface computer. Deep ATRIS has a maximum tow speed of 2.6 m · s-1and a theoretical operating tow-depth limit of 27 m. With an improved tow cable, the operating depth can be extended to 90 m. Here, we present results from the initial sea trials in the Gulf of Mexico and Biscayne National Park, Florida, USA, and discuss the utility of Deep ATRIS for map-ping coral reef habitats. Several example mosaics illustrate the high-quality imagery that can be obtained with this system. The images also reveal the potential for unobtrusive animal observations; fish and sea turtles are unperturbed by the presence of Deep ATRIS

Florida

Multi-scale 46-year remote sensing change detection of diamond mining and land cover in a conflict and post-conflict setting

The town of Tortiya was created in the rural northern region of Côte d′Ivoire in the late 1940s to house workers for a new diamond mine. Nearly three decades later, the closure of the industrial-scale diamond mine in 1975 did not diminish the importance of diamond profits to the region's economy, and resulted in the growth of artisanal and small-scale diamond mining (ASM) within the abandoned industrial-scale mining concession. In the early 2000s, the violent conflict that arose in Côte d′Ivoire highlighted the importance of ASM land use to the local economy, but also brought about international concerns that diamond profits were being used to fund the rebellion. In recent years, cashew plantations have expanded exponentially in the region, diversifying economic activity, but also creating the potential for conflict between diamond mining and agricultural land uses. As the government looks to address the future of Tortiya and this potential conflict, a detailed spatio-temporal understanding of the changes in these two land uses over time may assist in informing policymaking. Remotely sensed imagery presents an objective and detailed spatial record of land use/land cover (LULC), and change detection methods can provide quantitative insight regarding regional land cover trends. However, the vastly different scales of ASM and cashew orchards present a unique challenge to comprehensive understanding of land use change in the region. In this study, moderate-scale categories of LULC, including cashew orchards, uncultivated forest, urban space, mining/ bare, and mixed vegetation, were produced through supervised classification of Landsat multispectral imagery from 1984, 1991, 2000, 2007, and 2014. The fine-scale ASM land use was identified through manual interpretation of annually acquired high resolution satellite imagery. Corona imagery was also integrated into the study to extend the temporal duration of the remote sensing record back to the period of industrial-scale mining. These different-scale analyses were then integrated to create a record of 46 years of mining activity and land cover change in Tortiya. While similar in spatial extent, the mining/ bare class in the integrated analysis exhibits a substantially different spatial distribution than in the original classifications. This additional information regarding the locations of ASM activity in the Tortiya area is important from a policy and planning perspective. The results of this study also suggest that LULC classifications of Landsat imagery do not consistently capture areas of ASM in the Côte d′Ivoire landscape.

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environme

A Green's function approach for assessing the thermal disturbance caused by drilling deep boreholes in rock or ice

A knowledge of subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins, fault zones, volcanic environments and polar ice sheets is of interest for a wide variety of geophysical applications. However, the process of drilling deep boreholes in these environments to provide access for temperature and other measurements invariably disturbs the temperature field around a newly created borehole. Although this disturbance dissipates over time, most temperature measurements are made while the temperature field is still disturbed. Thus, the measurements must be ‘corrected’ for the drilling-disturbance effect if the undisturbed temperature field is to be determined. This paper provides compact analytical solutions for the thermal drilling disturbance based on 1-D (radial) and 2-D (radial and depth) Green's functions (GFs) in cylindrical coordinates. Solutions are developed for three types of boundary conditions (BCs) at the borehole wall: (1) prescribed temperature, (2) prescribed heat flux and (3) a prescribed convective condition. The BC at the borehole wall is allowed to vary both with depth and time. Inclusion of the depth dimension in the 2-D solution allows vertical heat-transfer effects to be quantified in situations where they are potentially important, that is, near the earth's surface, at the bottom of a well and when considering finite-drilling rates. The 2-D solution also includes a radial- and time-dependent BC at the earth's surface to assess the impact of drilling-related infrastructure (drilling pads, mud pits, permanent shelters) on the subsurface temperature field. Latent-heat effects due to the melting and subsequent refreezing of interstitial ice while drilling a borehole through ice-rich permafrost can be included in the GF solution as a moving-plane heat source (or sink) located at the solid–liquid interface. Synthetic examples are provided illustrating the 1-D and 2-D GF solutions. The flexibility of the approach allows the investigation of thermal drilling effects in rock or ice for a wide variety of drilling technologies. Numerical values for the required radial GFs G R are available through the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service at doi:10.5065/D64F1NS6.

Geophysical Journal International

Organic geochemistry applied to environmental assessments of Prince William Sound, Alaska, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill—a review

Organic geochemistry played a major role in the environmental assessments conducted following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, which occurred on March 24, 1989, and released about 258,000 bbls (41 million liters) of Alaska North Slope crude oil into Prince William Sound. Geochemical analyses of more than 15,000 sediment, tar, and biological samples and about 5000 water samples provide the largest database yet collected on oil-spill chemistry, and we review the results here. The marine environment of the Sound has a complex background of petrogenic, pyrogenic, and biogenic hydrocarbons from natural and anthropogenic sources. Geochemical evaluation of the fate and effects of the spilled oil required that this oil and its residues be distinguished from the background. A variety of molecular and isotopic techniques were employed to identify various hydrocarbon sources and to distinguish quantitatively among mixed sources in the samples. Although the specific criteria used to distinguish multiple sources in the region affected by the Exxon Valdez spill are not necessarily applicable to all spill situations, the principles that governed their selection are. Distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and dibenzothiophenes distinguish Exxon Valdez oil and its weathered residues from background hydrocarbons in benthic sediments. Ratios of C 2 -dibenzothiophene C 2 -phenanthrene "> C 2 -dibenzothiopheneC 2 -phenanthrene and C 3 -dibenzothiophene C 3 -phenanthrene "> C 3 -dibenzothiopheneC 3 -phenanthrene were particularly useful. Carbon isotopes and terpane distributions distinguished Exxon Valdez residues found on shorelines from tars from other sources. Diesel and diesel soot were identified by the absence of alkylated chrysenes and a narrow distribution of n -alkanes, whereas pyrogenic products were distinguished by the dominance of 4- to 6-ring PAH over 2- to 3-ring PAH and by the dominance of non-alkylated over alkylated homologues of each PAH series. The presence of 18α(H)-oleanane in benthic sediments, coupled with its absence in Exxon Valdez oil and its residues, confirm another petrogenic source. Results of geochemical studies suggest that the petrogenic component in the background of benthic sediments is derived from oil seeps in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. In 1990 and 1991, Exxon Valdez residues, generally forming a small increment to the pre-spill background, were found to be only sporadically distributed in some shallow, near shore sediments adjacent to shorelines that had been heavily oiled in 1989. In 1994, occurrences of Exxon Valdez tars on shoreline surfaces were rare, although residues could be found buried in shoreline sediments at some isolated locations along the spill path where they were protected from wave action. Spilled oil residues collected 16 months after the spill were degraded, on average, by nearly 50%. Shoreline residues from sources other than the spill were also identified and are widespread throughout the Sound. These residues include (1) geochemically distinct tars and oils imported from California oil fields to Alaska for fuel and construction purposes prior to the discovery of the Cook Inlet and North Slope oil fields, (2) diesel and diesel soot, and (3) more highly refined products. Of the more than 2700 chemical analyses of biological samples of higher life forms (fish, birds, and mammals) about 150 (6%) indicate recognizable residues of Exxon Valdez oil, which were identified by their distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Most of these samples (138) were collected in 1989 and most were associated with external surfaces or the gastrointestinal tract. Rarely do internal tissues or fluids contain recognizable fingerprints of spilled oil. This observation includes samples from marine mammals that were visibly oiled externally. Other hydrocarbon sources, including diesel and a non-petroleum artifact that occurs when concentrations of individual PAH are at or near their method detection limit, are also identified in biological samples.

Alaska

Environmental contaminants and biomarker responses in fish from the Rio Grande and its U.S. tributaries: Spatial and temporal trends

We collected, examined, and analyzed 368 fish of seven species from 10 sites on rivers of the Rio Grande Basin (RGB) during late 1997 and early 1998 to document temporal and geographic trends in the concentrations of accumulative contaminants and to assess contaminant effects on the fish. Sites were located on the mainstem of the Rio Grande and on the Arroyo Colorado and Pecos River in Texas (TX), New Mexico (NM), and Colorado. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) were the targeted species. Fish were examined in the field for internal and external visible gross lesions, selected organs were weighed to compute ponderal and organosomatic indices, and samples of tissues and fluids were obtained and preserved for analysis of fish health and reproductive biomarkers. Whole fish from each station were composited by species and gender and analyzed for organochlorine chemical residues and elemental contaminants using instrumental methods, and for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin-like activity (TCDD-EQ) using the H4IIE rat hepatoma cell bioassay. Overall, fish from lower RGB stations contained greater concentrations of organochlorine pesticide residues and appeared to be less healthy than those from sites in the central and upper parts of the basin, as indicated by a general gradient of residue concentrations and biomarker responses. A minimal number of altered biomarkers and few or no elevated contaminant concentrations were noted in fish from the upper RGB. The exception was elevated concentrations [up to 0.46 ??g/g wet-weight (ww)] of total mercury (Hg) in predatory species from the Rio Grande at Elephant Butte Reservoir, NM, a condition documented in previous studies. Arsenic (As) and selenium (Se) concentrations were greatest in fish from sites in the central RGB; Se concentrations in fish from the Pecos River at Red Bluff Lake, TX and from the Rio Grande at Langtry, TX and Amistad International Reservoir, TX exceeded published fish and wildlife toxicity thresholds. In the lower RGB, residues of p,p???-DDT metabolites (???1.69 ??g/g ww), chlordane-related compounds (???0.21 ??g/g ww), dieldrin (???0.0.05 ??g/g ww), and toxaphene (???2.4 ??g/g ww) were detected in fish from most sites; maximum concentrations were in channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) from the Arroyo Colorado at Harlingen, TX. Concentrations of one or more residues exceeded toxicity thresholds for fish and wildlife in fish from this site and from the Rio Grande at Mission, TX and Brownsville, TX; however, concentrations were lower than those reported by previous studies. In addition, the proportional concentrations of p,p???-DDT at all sites were low, indicating weathered DDT rather than the influx of new material. Concentrations of total PCBs (<0.05 ??g/g ww) and TCDD-EQ (???6 pg/g ww) were comparatively low in all samples. Hepatic ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity in some fish was elevated relative to reference rates at most sites, but was generally lower than previously reported activity in fish from heavily contaminated locations. The comparatively low PCB and TCDD-EQ concentrations together with elevated EROD activity may reflect exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Reproductive biomarkers were consistent with chronic contaminant exposure at lower RGB sites; comparatively large percentages of intersex male largemouth bass, relatively low gonadosomatic indices, and elevated plasma vitellogenin concentrations in male fish were noted at three of the four stations. Large percentages of atretic eggs were also observed in the ovaries of female common carp from the Rio Grande at Brownsville, TX. Although many of the conditions noted may have other causes in addition to contaminant exposure, the biomarker results for the lower RGB sites are consistent with subtle responses of fish to contaminants, an interpretation supported by the chemical data of this and other investigations.

Science of the Total Environment

Mercury cycling in agricultural and managed wetlands of California: seasonal influences of vegetation on mercury methylation, storage, and transport

Plants are a dominant biologic and physical component of many wetland capable of influencing the internal pools and fluxes of methylmercury (MeHg). To investigate their role with respect to the latter, we examined the changing seasonal roles of vegetation biomass and Hg, C and N composition from May 2007-February 2008 in 3 types of agricultural wetlands (domesticated or white rice, wild rice, and fallow fields), and in adjacent managed natural wetlands dominated by cattail and bulrush (tule). We also determined the impact of vegetation on seasonal microbial Hg methylation rates, and Hg and MeHg export via seasonal storage in vegetation, and biotic consumption of rice seed. Despite a compressed growing season of ~ 3 months, annual net primary productivity (NPP) was greatest in white rice fields and carbon more labile (leaf median C:N ratio = 27). Decay of senescent litter (residue) was correlated with microbial MeHg production in winter among all wetlands. As agricultural biomass accumulated from July to August, THg concentrations declined in leaves but MeHg concentrations remained consistent, such that MeHg pools generally increased with growth. Vegetation provided a small, temporary, but significant storage term for MeHg in agricultural fields when compared with hydrologic export. White rice and wild rice seeds reached mean MeHg concentrations of 4.1 and 6.2 ng g dw - 1 , respectively. In white rice and wild rice fields, seed MeHg concentrations were correlated with root MeHg concentrations (r = 0.90, p < 0.001), suggesting transport of MeHg to seeds from belowground tissues. Given the proportionally elevated concentrations of MeHg in rice seeds, white and wild rice crops may act as a conduit of MeHg into biota, especially waterfowl which forage heavily on rice seeds within the Central Valley of California, USA. Thus, while plant tissues and rhizosphere soils provide temporary storage for MeHg during the growing season, export of MeHg is enhanced post-harvest through increased hydrologic and biotic export.

California

Groundwater flow systems at the Nevada Test Site, Nevada: A synthesis of potentiometric contours, hydrostratigraphy, and geologic structures

Contaminants introduced into the subsurface of the Nevada Test Site by underground nuclear testing are of concern to the U.S. Department of Energy and regulators responsible for protecting human health and safety. The potential for contaminant movement away from the underground test areas and into the accessible environment is greatest by groundwater transport. The primary hydrologic control on this transport is evaluated and examined through a series of contour maps developed to represent the hydraulic-head distribution within each of the major aquifers underlying the area. Aquifers were identified and their extents delineated by merging and analyzing multiple hydrostratigraphic framework models developed by other investigators from existing geologic information. A map of the hydraulic-head distribution in each major aquifer was developed from a detailed evaluation and assessment of available water-level measurements. Multiple spreadsheets that accompany this report provide pertinent water-level and geologic data by well or drill hole. Aquifers are mapped and discussed in general terms as being one of two types: alluvial–volcanic, or carbonate. Both aquifer types are subdivided and mapped as independent regional and local aquifers, based on the continuity of their component rock. Groundwater-flow directions, approximated from potentiometric contours that were developed from the hydraulic-head distribution, are indicated on the maps and discussed for each of the regional aquifers and for selected local aquifers. Hydraulic heads vary across the study area and are interpreted to range in altitude from greater than 5,000 feet in a regional alluvial–volcanic aquifer beneath a recharge area in the northern part of the study area to less than 2,300 feet in regional alluvial–volcanic and carbonate aquifers in the southwestern part of the study area. Flow directions throughout the study area are dominantly south-southwest with some local deviations. Vertical hydraulic gradients between aquifer types are downward throughout most of the study area; however, flow from the alluvial–volcanic aquifer into the underlying carbonate aquifer, where both aquifers are present, is believed to be minor because of an intervening confining unit. Limited exchange of water between aquifer types occurs by diffuse flow through the confining unit, by focused flow along fault planes, or by direct flow where the confining unit is locally absent. Interflow between regional aquifers is evaluated and mapped to define major flow paths. These flow paths delineate tributary flow systems, which converge to form intermediate and regional flow systems. The implications of these flow systems in controlling transport of radionuclides away from the underground test areas at the Nevada Test Site are briefly discussed. Additionally, uncertainties in the delineation of aquifers, the development of potentiometric contours, and the identification of flow systems are identified and evaluated. Eleven tributary flow systems and three larger flow systems are mapped in the Nevada Test Site area. Flow systems within the alluvial–volcanic aquifer dominate the western half of the study area, whereas flow systems within the carbonate aquifer are most prevalent in the southeastern half of the study area. Most of the flow in the regional alluvial–volcanic aquifer that moves through the underground testing area on Pahute Mesa is discharged to the land surface at springs and seeps in Oasis Valley. Flow in the regional carbonate aquifer is internally compartmentalized by major geologic structures, primarily thrust faults, which constrain flow into separate corridors. Contaminants that reach the regional carbonate aquifer from testing areas in Yucca and Frenchman Flats flow toward downgradient discharge areas through the Alkali Flat–Furnace Creek Ranch or Ash Meadows flow systems and their tributaries.

Nevada

On-orbit calibration and performance of the EMIT imaging spectrometer

The Earth surface Mineral dust source InvesTigation (EMIT) is a remote visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometer that has been operating onboard the International Space Station since July 2022. This article describes EMIT's on-orbit spectroradiometric calibration and validation. Accurate spectroscopy is vital to achieve consistent mapping results with orbital imaging spectrometers. EMIT takes a unique approach to this challenge, with just six optical elements, no shutter, and no onboard calibration systems. Its simple design focuses on uniformity and stability to enable vicarious spectroradiometric calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach is successful, approaching the fidelity of manual field spectroscopy in some cases, and enabling new and more accurate products across diverse Earth science disciplines. EMIT achieves several notable firsts for an instrument of its class. It demonstrates successful on-orbit adjustments of Focal Plane Array (FPA) alignment with sub-micron precision. It offers spectral uniformity better than 98%. Optical artifacts in the measurement channels are at least three orders of magnitude below the primary solar-reflected surface signals. Its noise performance enables percent-level discrimination in the depths of mineral absorption features. In these aspects, EMIT satisfies the stringent performance needs for the next generation of VSWIR imaging spectrometers to observe the Earth's ecosystems, geology , and water resources.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Social equity shapes zone-selection: Balancing aquatic biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services delivery in the transboundary Danube River Basin

Freshwater biodiversity is declining, despite national and international efforts to manage and protect freshwater ecosystems. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as an approach that could more efficiently and adaptively balance ecological and societal needs. However, this raises the question of how social and ecological objectives can be included in an integrated management plan. Here, we present a generic model-coupling framework tailored to address this question for freshwater ecosystems, using three components: biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESS), and a spatial prioritisation that aims to balance the spatial representation of biodiversity and ESS supply and demand. We illustrate this model-coupling approach within the Danube River Basin using the spatially explicit, potential distribution of (i) 85 fish species as a surrogate for biodiversity as modelled using hierarchical Bayesian models, and (ii) four estimated ESS layers produced by the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) platform (with ESS supply defined as carbon storage and flood regulation, and demand specified as recreation and water use). These are then used for (iii) a joint spatial prioritisation of biodiversity and ESS employing Marxan with Zones, laying out the spatial representation of multiple management zones. Given the transboundary setting of the Danube River Basin, we also run comparative analyses including the country-level purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) and each country's percent cover of the total basin area as potential cost factors, illustrating a scheme for balancing the share of establishing specific zones among countries. We demonstrate how emphasizing various biodiversity or ESS targets in an EBM model-coupling framework can be used to cost-effectively test various spatially explicit management options across a multi-national case study. We further discuss possible limitations, future developments, and requirements for effectively managing a balance between biodiversity and ESS supply and demand in freshwater ecosystems.

Science of the Total Environment

Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Deformation here is expressed as a belt of major, north-northeast-trending, left-lateral strike-slip faults and abundant seismicity. The seismicity intensifies farther to the northeast and includes a prominent zone of deep earthquakes associated with northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath Eurasia that extends beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamirs Mountains. Production of the seismic hazard maps is challenging because the geological and seismological data required to produce a seismic hazard model are limited. The data that are available for this project include historical seismicity and poorly constrained slip rates on only a few of the many active faults in the country. Much of the hazard is derived from a new catalog of historical earthquakes: from 1964 to the present, with magnitude equal to or greater than about 4.5, and with depth between 0 and 250 kilometers. We also include four specific faults in the model: the Chaman fault with an assigned slip rate of 10 mm/yr, the Central Badakhshan fault with an assigned slip rate of 12 mm/yr, the Darvaz fault with an assigned slip rate of 7 mm/yr, and the Hari Rud fault with an assigned slip rate of 2 mm/yr. For these faults and for shallow seismicity less than 50 km deep, we incorporate published ground-motion estimates from tectonically active regions of western North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Ground-motion estimates for deeper seismicity are derived from data in subduction environments. We apply estimates derived for tectonic regions where subduction is the main tectonic process for intermediate-depth seismicity between 50- and 250-km depth. Within the framework of these limitations, we have developed a preliminary probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment of Afghanistan, the type of analysis that underpins the seismic components of modern building codes in the United States. The assessment includes maps of estimated peak ground-acceleration (PGA), 0.2-second spectral acceleration (SA), and 1.0-secon

Open-File Report

Late Quaternary landscape evolution in the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, Northern Tibet: A framework for examining the links between glaciation, lake level changes and alluvial fan formation

The Qaidam Basin in Northern Tibet is one of the largest hyper-arid intermontane basins on Earth. Alluvial fans, pediment surfaces, shorelines and a thick succession of sediments within the basin, coupled with moraines and associated landforms in the adjacent high mountain catchments of the Kunlun Mountains, record a complex history of Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental change and landscape evolution. The region provides an ideal natural laboratory to examine the interaction between tectonics and climate within a continent-continent collision zone, and to quantify rates of landscape evolution as controlled by climate and the associated glacial and hydrological changes in hyper-arid and adjacent high-altitude environments. Geomorphic mapping, analysis of landforms and sediments, and terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclide surface exposure and optically stimulated luminescence dating serve to define the timing of formation of Late Quaternary landforms along the southern and northwestern margins of the Qaidam Basin, and in the Burhan Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains adjacent to the basin on the south. These dates provide a framework that suggests links between climatic amelioration, deglaciation, lake desiccation and alluvial fan evolution. At least three glacial advances are defined in the Burham Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains. On the northern side of this range these occurred in the penultimate glacial cycle or early in the last glacial cycle, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)/Lateglacial and during the Holocene. On the south side of the range, advances occurred during the penultimate glacial cycle, MIS-3, and possibly the LGM, Lateglacial or Holocene. Several distinct phases of alluvial fan sedimentation are likewise defined. Alluvial fans formed on the southern side of the Kunlun Mountains prior to 200 ka. Ice-contact alluvial fans formed during the penultimate glacial and during MIS-3. Extensive incised alluvial fans that form the main valley fills north of the Burham Budai and extend into the Qaidam Basin are dated to ???30 ka. These ages suggest that there was a period of alluvial fan aggradation and valley filling that persisted until desiccation of the large lakes in the Qaidam Basin post ???30 ka led to base level lowering and active incision of streams into the valley fills. The continued Lateglacial and Holocene desiccation likely led to further degradation of the valley fills. Ice wedge casts in the Qaidam Basin date to ???15 ka, indicating significant Lateglacial climatic amelioration, while Holocene loess deposits north of the Burham Bdudai suggest that aridity has increased in the region since the early Holocene. From these observations, we infer that the major landscape changes within high glaciated mountains and their adjacent hyper-arid intermontane basins, such as the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, occur rapidly over millennial timescales during periods of climatic instability. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Quaternary International

Preliminary results of the first scientific Drilling on Lake Baikal, Buguldeika site, southeastern Siberia

The Baikal Drilling Project (BDP) is a multinational effort to investigate the paleoclimatic history and tectonic evolution of the Baikal sedimentary basin during the Late Neogene. In March 1993 the Baikal drilling system was successfuly deployed from a barge frozen into position over a topographic high, termed the Buguldeika saddle, in the southern basin of Lake Baikal. The BDP-93 scientific team, made up of Russian, American and Japanese scientists, successfully recovered the first long (>100 m) hydraulic piston cores from two holes in 354 m of water. High quality cores of 98 m (Hole 1) and 102 m (Hole 2), representing sedimentation over the last 500,000 years, were collected in 78 mm diameter plastic liners with an average recovery of 72% and 90%, respectively. Magnetic susceptibility logging reveals an excellent hole-to-hole correlation. In this report the scientific team describes the preliminary analytical results from BDP-93 hole 1 cores. Radiocarbon dating by accelerator mass spectrometry provides an accurate chronology for the upper portion of Hole 1. Detailed lithologic characteristics, rock magnetic properties and inorganic element distributions show a significant change to the depositional environment occuring at 50 m subbottom depth, approximately 250,000 BP. This change may be due to uplift and rotation of the horst block in the Buguldeika saddle. The sedimentary section above 50 m is pelitic with varve-like laminae, whereas the section below 50 m contains a high proportion of sand and gravel horizons often organized into turbidite sequences. Accordingly, high resolution seismic records reveal a change in sonic velocity at this depth. It is inferred that sedimentation prior to 250 ka BP was from the west via the Buguldeika river system. After 250 ka BP the Buguldeika saddle reflects an increase in hemipelagic sediments admixed with fine-grained material from the Selenga River drainage basin, east of Lake Baikal. Variations in the spore-pollen assemblage, diatoms, biogenic silica content, rock magnetic properties, clay mineralogy and organic carbon in the upper 50 m of BDP-93-1 reveal a detailed record of climate change over approximately the last 250,000 years. These variables alternate in a pattern characteristic of glacial/interglacial climatic fluctuations. The present age model suggests that the climate signal recorded in Lake Baikal sediments is similar to Late Quaternary signals recorded in Chinese loess sections and in marine sediments.

Siberia

The global Landsat archive: Status, consolidation, and direction

New and previously unimaginable Landsat applications have been fostered by a policy change in 2008 that made analysis-ready Landsat data free and open access. Since 1972, Landsat has been collecting images of the Earth, with the early years of the program constrained by onboard satellite and ground systems, as well as limitations across the range of required computing, networking, and storage capabilities. Rather than robust on-satellite storage for transmission via high bandwidth downlink to a centralized storage and distribution facility as with Landsat-8, a network of receiving stations, one operated by the U.S. government, the other operated by a community of International Cooperators (ICs), were utilized. ICs paid a fee for the right to receive and distribute Landsat data and over time, more Landsat data was held outside the archive of the United State Geological Survey (USGS) than was held inside, much of it unique. Recognizing the critical value of these data, the USGS began a Landsat Global Archive Consolidation (LGAC) initiative in 2010 to bring these data into a single, universally accessible, centralized global archive, housed at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The primary LGAC goals are to inventory the data held by ICs, acquire the data, and ingest and apply standard ground station processing to generate an L1T analysis-ready product. As of January 1, 2015 there were 5,532,454 images in the USGS archive. LGAC has contributed approximately 3.2 million of those images, more than doubling the original USGS archive holdings. Moreover, an additional 2.3 million images have been identified to date through the LGAC initiative and are in the process of being added to the archive. The impact of LGAC is significant and, in terms of images in the collection, analogous to that of having had two additional Landsat-5 missions. As a result of LGAC, there are regions of the globe that now have markedly improved Landsat data coverage, resulting in an enhanced capacity for mapping, monitoring change, and capturing historic conditions. Although future missions can be planned and implemented, the past cannot be revisited, underscoring the value and enhanced significance of historical Landsat data and the LGAC initiative. The aim of this paper is to report the current status of the global USGS Landsat archive, document the existing and anticipated contributions of LGAC to the archive, and characterize the current acquisitions of Landsat-7 and Landsat-8. Landsat-8 is adding data to the archive at an unprecedented rate as nearly all terrestrial images are now collected. We also offer key lessons learned so far from the LGAC initiative, plus insights regarding other critical elements of the Landsat program looking forward, such as acquisition, continuity, temporal revisit, and the importance of continuing to operationalize the Landsat program.

Remote Sensing of Environment

The geology of selected peat-forming environments in temperate and tropical latitudes

We studied peat in several geologic and climatic settings: (1) a glaciated terrain in cold-temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in a temperate maritime climate in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, U.S.A., where sea level is rising rapidly and changing the environment of peat accumulation; (3) swamps along the warm-temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often, thus creating sites for accumulation; and (4) in a tropical climate along the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia (Figs. 1 and 2). With the exception of the deposits on the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, most of the deposits described are domed bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. The bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains have almost level surfaces. All domed bogs are not entirely ombrotrophic (watered only from precipitation); multidomed bogs that rise from irregular or hilly surfaces may be crossed by streams that supply water to the bogs. The geologic processes or organic sedimentation, namely terrestrialization and paludification, are similar in all peat deposits considered here. Differences in geomorphology affecting the quantity and that quality of peat that has ash contents of less than 25%, which are desirable for commercial purposes, depend chiefly on: (1) high humidity, which is favorable to luxuriant growth of peat-forming vegetation; (2) a depositional setting that permits extensive accumulation relatively free from inorganic contamination from sea water and streams and from dust and volcanic ash; and (3) a stable regional water table that controls the rate of decomposition under aerobic conditions and protects the deposit against the ravages of fire. Differences in peat textures are due to the type of vegetation and to the degree of decomposition. The rate of decomposition is largely the result of the amount of oxidation and aerobic microbial activity. Stratigraphic distribution of various textures and amounts of inorganic components within a peat deposit is largely determined by the vertical positions occupied by peat-forming environments, such as pond, marsh, swamp and heath where vegetation accumulated, and the depth to zones of unoxygenated water. Peat also differs in the rate of accumulation. On the basis of carbon-14 dating, an estimated 8 m of peat in the tropical Batang Hari River deposit in Sumatra has been accumulating at the rate of about 1.5 m/1,000 yr, whereas peat in the cold-temperate deposit in Maine has been accumulating at the rate of 0.66 m/1,000 yr. Accumulation rates in domed deposits such as these are affected not only by factors controlling volume of biomass and aerobic decay but also by stream erosion and fires that remove peat. Such disconformities (see Fig. 2) within the deposit may be recognized by sudden vertical changes in degree of decomposition and/or the presence of charcoal. The trace-element content of peat deposits is affected by the environments of their settings. Samples of peat that have an ash content of less than 25% dry weight and that are from small, almost level swamp deposits along the Atlantic Coastal Plain of North Carolina were compared with similar samples from small domed bogs in Maine, a glaciated area. Samples from Nort Carolina, which are from deposits in thick fluvial and nearshore marine sediments far from the bedrock source, are generally higher in Ti, Cr and Pb. The Maine samples from deposits in glacial drift close to the bedrock source contain more Zn, Mn, P, Ca, Na and Fe. The kind and amount of trace elements within the deposits appear to relate largely to depositional setting, to kinds of bedrock source, and to the modes of transportation from source to peat swamp. Trace-element concentrations in the extensive Sumatra peat deposit, which represents a potentially commercial coal bed, are similar to those found in Appalachian coals except for As and Au, which are higher in the former. This similarity most likely implies that geochemical controls on mineral matter controlled the concentrations in both. Most peat deposits found in the world today are not precursors of economic coal beds because they are too local in extent, lack beds of commercial-quality peat greater than 6 m thick, and/or are too far from sea level to be rapidly by marine or marginal marine sediments before destruction by erosion and decomposition. However, the two domed deposits in Sarawak and Sumatra described above are parts of extensive, thick, low-sulfur, fuel-quality peat deposits, which have bases below the levels of rivers on coastal deltas. These are likely to be preserved in their lower part and to become precursors of tropical coal seams of potential economic importance. The lenticular and tabular peat deposits of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, which have little chance of survival, have features resembling those in Tertiary peat deposits in alluvial settings of western North America. The quality, shape, and extent of modern and ancient peat deposits are controlled by the same factors - humidity, vegetation type, ground- and surface-water regimes, and physiographic and geologic setting. Thus, a study of modern peat deposits may help in studies of the areal distribution and the thickness and quality of ancient coal beds.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

Recent studies have shown that excessive dissolved-solids concentrations in water can have adverse effects on the environment and on agricultural, domestic, municipal, and industrial water users. Such effects motivated the U.S. Geological Survey&rsquo;s National Water Quality Assessment Program to develop a SPAtially-Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model that has improved the understanding of sources, loads, yields, and concentrations of dissolved solids in streams of the conterminous United States. Using the SPARROW model, long-term mean annual dissolved-solids loads from 2,560 water-quality monitoring stations were statistically related to several spatial datasets that are surrogates for dissolved-solids sources and land-to-water delivery processes. Specifically, sources in the model included variables representing geologic materials, road deicers, urban lands, cultivated lands, and pasture lands. Transport of dissolved solids from these sources was modulated by land-to-water delivery variables that represent precipitation, streamflow, soil, vegetation, terrain, population, irrigation, and artificial drainage characteristics. Where appropriate, the load estimates, source variables, and transport variables were statistically adjusted to represent conditions for the base year 2000. The nonlinear least-squares estimated SPARROW model was used to predict long-term mean annual conditions for dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in a digital hydrologic network representing nearly 66,000 stream reaches and their corresponding incremental catchments that drain the Nation. Nationwide, the predominant source of dissolved solids yielded from incremental catchments and delivered to local streams is geologic materials in 89 percent of the catchments, road deicers in 5 percent of the catchments, pasture lands in 3 percent of the catchments, urban lands in 2 percent of the catchments, and cultivated lands in 1 percent of the catchments. Whereas incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from geologic sources or from urban lands are found across much of the Nation, incremental catchments with dissolved solids yields that originated predominantly from road deicers are largely found in the Northeast, and incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from cultivated or pasture lands are largely found in the West. The total amount of dissolved solids delivered to the Nation&rsquo;s streams is 271.9 million metric tons (Mt) annually, of which 194.2 million Mt (71.4%) come from geologic sources, 37.7 million Mt (13.9%) come from road deicers, 18.2 million Mt (6.7%) come from pasture lands, 13.9 million Mt (5.1%) come from urban lands, and 7.9 million Mt (2.9%) come from cultivated lands. Nationwide, the median incremental-catchment yield delivered to local streams is 26 metric tons per year per square kilometer [(Mt/yr)/km 2 ]. Ten percent of the incremental catchments yield less than 4 (Mt/yr)/km 2 , and 10 percent yield more than 90 (Mt/yr)/km 2 . Incremental-catchment yields greater than 50 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur along the northern part of the West Coast and in a crescent shaped band south of the Great Lakes. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 81 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Lakes, 78 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Ohio, and 74 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Upper Mississippi water-resources regions. Incremental-catchment yields less than 10 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur in a wide band across the arid lowland of the interior West that excludes areas along the coast and the extensive, higher mountain ranges. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 3 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Lower Colorado, 5 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Rio Grande, and 8 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Basin water-resources regions. Predicted incremental loads were cascaded down through the reach network, with loads accumulating from reach to reach. For most stream reaches, the entire incremental load of dissolved solids delivered to the reach was transported to either the ocean or to one of the large streams flowing along the U.S. international boundary without losses occurring along the way. The exceptions to this include streams in the southwestern part of the country, such as the Colorado River, Rio Grande, and streams of internally drained drainages in the Great Basin, where dissolved-solids loads decreased through streamflow diversion for off-stream use, or by infiltration through the streambed. Long-term mean annual flow-weighted concentrations were derived from the predicted accumulated-load and stream-discharge data. Widespread low concentrations, generally less than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), occur in many reaches of the New England, South Atlantic-Gulf, and Pacific Northwest water-resources regions as a result of moderate dissolved-solids yields and high runoff rates. Widespread moderate concentrations, generally between 100 and 500 mg/L, occur in many reaches of the Great Lakes, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River water-resources regions. Whereas dissolved-solids yields are generally high in these regions, runoff rates are also high, which helps moderate concentrations in these regions. Widespread higher concentrations, generally greater than 500 mg/L, occur across a belt of reaches that extends almost continuously from Canada to Mexico in the Midwest, cutting through the Souris-Red-Rainy, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, and Rio Grande water-resources regions. Although dissolved-solids yields are moderate to low in these areas, low runoff rates result in the high concentrations for these areas. In 12.6 percent of the Nation&rsquo;s stream reaches, predicted concentrations of dissolved solids exceed 500 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency&rsquo;s secondary, nonenforceable drinking water standard. While this standard provides a metric for evaluating predicted concentrations in the context of drinking-water supplies, it should be noted that it only applies to drinking water actually served to customers by water utilities, and it does not apply to all stream reaches in the Nation nor does it apply during times when water is not being withdrawn for use. Exceedance of 500 mg/L is more pronounced in certain water-resources regions than others. For example, about half of the reaches in the Souris-Red-Rainy region have concentrations predicted to exceed 500 mg/L, and between 25 and 37 percent of the reaches in the Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, and Lower Colorado regions are predicted to exceed 500 mg/L. Development of stream-load data for use in the SPARROW model also provided long-term temporal trend information in dissolved-solids concentrations at the monitoring stations for their period of record, which was constrained between 1980 and 2009. For the 2,560 monitoring stations used in this study, long-term trends in flow-adjusted dissolved-solids concentrations increased over time at 23 percent of the stations, decreased at 18 percent of the stations, and did not change over time at 59 percent of the stations. Long-term trends show a strong regional spatial pattern where from the western parts of the Great Plains to the West Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or decreased over time, and from the eastern parts of the Great Plains to the East Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or increased over time. Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Scientific Investigations Report