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USGS2018

Moving from eco-forecasts to eco-projections

Ecological models can provide estimates of future conditions that are useful for decision-making, including long-term planning and resource prioritization. However, these models often rely on assumptions about ecological relationships and trajectories, forcings (e.g., biophysical conditions), and management approaches that may not be explicitly considered. To make assumptions more transparent, disciplines such as economics, demographics, climatology, and national intelligence make a fairly clear and consistent distinction between “forecasts” and “projections”. Forecasts are typically more near-term and rely on extending existing relationships and trends to estimate the most likely future conditions; whereas projections evaluate conditions under multiple scenarios that are based on an array of assumptions, often going further out in time. Consistently referring to ecological models of future conditions as either “eco-forecasts” or “eco-projections” could help make modelling assumptions more transparent and thus more effectively focus their application across landscapes and through time. To the extent that ecological modelling is used to support management, policy, and programmatic decisions, practitioners can ask the following. If the modelling is an eco-forecast, is it worth considering different initial conditions, trajectories, or forcings based on alternative scenarios? If the modelling is an eco-projection, are the underlying assumptions and future scenarios explicit, and are decisions properly tempered with respect to those modelling specifications? We demonstrate these concepts and methods for conducting eco-projections through examples from invasion biology and climate adaptation.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Status and conservation of parrots and parakeets in the Greater Antilles, Bahama Islands, and Cayman Islands

In the 1490S a minimum of 28 species of psittacines occurred in the West Indies. Today, only 43% (12) of the species survive. All macaws and most parakeet species have been lost. Although the surviving parrot fauna of the Greater Antilles, Cayman Islands, and Bahama Islands has fared somewhat better than that of the Lesser Antilles, every species has undergone extensive reductions of populations and all but two have undergone extensive reductions in range, mostly as a result of habitat loss, but also from persecution as agricultural pests, conflicts with exotic species, harvesting for pets, and natural disasters. The Cayman Brae Parrot Amazona leucocephala hesterna , with its tiny population (lessthan 150 individuals in the wild) and range, and the Puerto Rican Parrot A. vittata , with 22-23 birds in the wild and 56 individuals in captivity, must be considered on the of extinction and in need of (in the tatter's case, continuing) aggressive programmes of research and management. Other populations declining in numbers and range include the Yellow-billed Amazona collaria , and Black-billed A. agilis Parrots of Jamaica, Hispaniolan Parakeet Aratinga chloroptera , Hispaniolan Parrot Amazona ventralis , Cuban Parrot A. leucocephala leucocephala and, most seriously, Cuban Parakeet Aratinga euops . The population of the Grand Cayman Parrot ( Amazona leucocephala caymanensis ), although numbering only about 1,000 birds, appears stable and the current conservation programme gives hope for the survival of the race. An active conservation and public education programme has begun for the Bahama Parrot A. l. bahamensis , which still occurs in good numbers on Great Inagua Island, but is threatened on Abaco Island. Recommendations for conservation of parrots and parakeets in the region include (1) instituting term programmes of research to determine distribution, status, and ecology of each species; (2) developing conservation programmes through education and management approaches that are culturally, politically, and economically sensitive to the region; and providing and protecting habitat within suitably sized reserves.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS2017

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: 'All hands on deck'

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

Conservation Letters↗

USGS2015

Shippingport, Kentucky, is the type locality for the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus (Rafinesque, 1818) (Mammalia: Rodentia: Cricetidae)

The white-footed mouse, Musculus leucopus Rafinesque, 1818 (= Peromyscus leucopus), is a common small mammal that is widespread in the eastern and central United States. Its abundance in many habitats renders it ecologically important, and its status as a reservoir for hantavirus and Lyme disease gives the species medical and economic significance. The recognition of two cytotypes and up to 17 morphological subspecies of P. leucopus indicates considerable variation in the species, and to understand this variation, it is important that the nominate subspecies be adequately defined so as to act as a standard for comparison. Relevant to this standard for the white-footed mouse is its type locality, which has generally been accepted to be either the vague "pine barrens of Kentucky" or the mouth of the Ohio River. Newly assembled information regarding the life and travels of Constantine S. Rafinesque, the North American naturalist who described P. leucopus , establishes that Rafinesque observed this species in July 1818 while visiting Shippingport, Kentucky, which is now within the city limits of Louisville, Jefferson Co., Kentucky. Shippingport is therefore the actual type locality for this species.

Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washingto↗

USGS2002

Application of landscape models to alternative futures analyses

Scientists and environmental managers alike are concerned about broadscale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on environmental and economic end points, such as water quality and quantity, species habitat, productivity, erosion potential, recreational value, and overall ecological health (Rapport et al., 1998). They also are interested in predicting short-and long-term future impacts on ecological goods and services based on current land management policies and decisions (Steinitz, 1996). Because we have the means to adjust land management policies, it is worthwhile to develop approaches that can predict the consequences (alternative futures) of different land management policies for different environmental end points. This type of analysis can, for example, allow decision makers in resource conservation and restoration programs to estimate how they can get the most ecological benefit for the least cost

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2026

Preface

Despite more than 50 years of research into the human dimensions of recreational f isheries, there is no textbook to present the theoretical grounding, operationalisation, and interpretation of the most elemental social components involved in fisheries management – namely, outcomes and trade-offs, behaviours (and antecedents or predictors of it), and the relationships among actors (fishers, f isher groups, managers, and management organisations). The objective of this edited volume is to reduce this knowledge gap. The book comprises four parts: (I) recreational fisheries as social-ecological systems, (II) disciplinary views of f ishers’ behaviours and outcomes, (III) engagement of fishers to support effective social science, and (IV) interdisciplinary integration for recreational fisheries management. Part I provides the general motivation for an interdisciplinary approach to understand recreational fisheries as coupled systems. Part II provides the foundations of various social science disciplines and highlights linkages and differences in the underlying theories and concepts used. Part III describes various qualitative and quantitative methods to study the social aspects of recreational fisheries in more detail, and Part IV suggests approaches to achieve standardisation and integration of different data streams, including how to link social and ecological data. The book chapters have been written by leading scholars of recreational fisheries science, involving social and economic scientists, political ecologists, and fisheries ecologists with a tradition in either applying human dimensions or working towards integration.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

A century of hydrologic data collection prepares western Long Island for current and future water-resources challenges

Freshwater is a vital natural resource. New York is a water-rich State; however, even here, the economical use of water resources is needed to ensure there is enough water of adequate quality for human and ecological needs—now and into the future. Nowhere in New York is this more evident than on Long Island where public-water supply is obtained from the sole-source aquifers directly beneath the 3 million people that live there. The U.S. Geological Survey works in partnership with the Nassau County Department of Public Works and Department of Health to monitor streamflow, groundwater, water quality, and water use.

New York↗

USGS2009

Tamarisk biocontrol in the western United States: Ecological and societal implications

Tamarisk species (genus Tamarix), also commonly known as saltcedar, are among the most successful plant invaders in the western United States. At the same time, tamarisk has been cited as having enormous economic costs. Accordingly, local, state, and federal agencies have undertaken considerable efforts to eradicate this invasive plant and restore riparian habitats to pre-invasion status. Traditional eradication methods, including herbicide treatments, are now considered undesirable, because they are costly and often have unintended negative impacts on native species. A new biological control agent, the saltcedar leaf beetle (Diorhabda elongata), has been released along many watersheds in the western US, to reduce the extent of tamarisk cover in riparian areas. However, the use of this insect as a biological control agent may have unintended ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic consequences that need to be anticipated by land managers and stakeholders undertaking restoration efforts. Here, we examine the possible ramifications of tamarisk control and offer recommendations to reduce potential negative impacts on valued riparian systems in the western US.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2021

Dam removal and river restoration

The removal of dams from rivers has become a common and widespread practice in the United States and Europe. Although often initiated by factors like economics and safety, ecosystem restoration is often a desired benefit and outcome of dam removal. We describe the physical and ecological effects that the placement and removal of dams have on rivers. We then focus on the drivers of dam removal, present considerations for undertaking a dam removal project, and discuss case-studies and recent syntheses describing the ecological outcomes of dam removal.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Biocomplexity in mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical coasts. Despite repeated demonstration of their economic and societal value, more than 50% of the world's mangroves have been destroyed, 35% in the past two decades to aquaculture and coastal development, altered hydrology, sea-level rise, and nutrient overenrichment. Variations in the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems have generally been described solely on the basis of a hierarchical classification of the physical characteristics of the intertidal environment, including climate, geomorphology, topography, and hydrology. Here, we use the concept of emergent properties at multiple levels within a hierarchical framework to review how the interplay between specialized adaptations and extreme trait plasticity that characterizes mangroves and intertidal environments gives rise to the biocomplexity that distinguishes mangrove ecosystems. The traits that allow mangroves to tolerate variable salinity, flooding, and nutrient availability influence ecosystem processes and ultimately the services they provide. We conclude that an integrated research strategy using emergent properties in empirical and theoretical studies provides a holistic approach for understanding and managing mangrove ecosystems.

Annual Review of Marine Science↗

USGS2013

Tracking animals in freshwater with electronic tags: past, present and future

Considerable technical developments over the past half century have enabled widespread application of electronic tags to the study of animals in the wild, including in freshwater environments. We review the constraints associated with freshwater telemetry and biologging and the technical developments relevant to their use. Technical constraints for tracking animals are often influenced by the characteristics of the animals being studied and the environment they inhabit. Collectively, they influence which and how technologies can be used and their relative effectiveness. Although radio telemetry has historically been the most commonly used technology in freshwater, passive integrated transponder (PIT) technology, acoustic telemetry and biologgers are becoming more popular. Most telemetry studies have focused on fish, although an increasing number have focused on other taxa, such as turtles, crustaceans and molluscs. Key technical developments for freshwater systems include: miniaturization of tags for tracking small-size life stages and species, fixed stations and coded tags for tracking large samples of animals over long distances and large temporal scales, inexpensive PIT systems that enable mass tagging to yield population- and community-level relevant sample sizes, incorporation of sensors into electronic tags, validation of tag attachment procedures with a focus on maintaining animal welfare, incorporation of different techniques (for example, genetics, stable isotopes) and peripheral technologies (for example, geographic information systems, hydroacoustics), development of novel analytical techniques, and extensive international collaboration. Innovations are still needed in tag miniaturization, data analysis and visualization, and in tracking animals over larger spatial scales (for example, pelagic areas of lakes) and in challenging environments (for example, large dynamic floodplain systems, under ice). There seems to be a particular need for adapting various global positioning system and satellite tagging approaches to freshwater. Electronic tagging provides a mechanism to collect detailed information from imperilled animals and species that have no direct economic value. Current and future advances will continue to improve our knowledge of the natural history of aquatic animals and ecological processes in freshwater ecosystems while facilitating evidence-based resource management and conservation.

Animal Biotelemetry↗

USGS1998

Water for the Nation: An overview of the USGS Water Resources Division

The Water Resources Division (WRD) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides reliable, impartial, timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources. WRD actively promotes the use of this information by decisionmakers to: * Minimize the loss of life and property as a result of water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and land movement. * Effectively manage ground-water and surface-water resources for domestic, agricultural, commercial, industrial, recreational, and ecological uses. * Protect and enhance water resources for human health, aquatic health, and environmental quality. * Contribute to wise physical and economic development of the Nation's resources for the benefit of present and future generations.

General Information Product↗

USGS2022

California Deepwater Investigations and Groundtruthing (Cal DIG) I, volume 3 — Benthic habitat characterization offshore Morro Bay, California

Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) geoform, substrate, and biotic component geographic information system (GIS) products were developed for the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) of south-central California in the region of Santa Lucia Bank motivated by interest in development of offshore wind-energy capacity and infrastructure. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), in coordination with the State of California and many other members of the California Task Force, issued calls for information in 2018 for the study area offshore of Morro Bay, California. The study area is in depths of 500 to 1,200 meters (m) and adjacent to a decommissioned nuclear power plant with a developed electric grid connection, and in an area of high wind resource. BOEM is the lead agency responsible for planning and leasing in the U.S. EEZ and funded this project to assess baseline conditions of, and the potential effects on, the seafloor environment. This project, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), resulted in three reports: one on biological analysis of seafloor video data, one on analysis of the geologic framework and hazards, and this report on seafloor habitat. The study area consists of 8,424 square kilometers (km 2 ) of multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data acquired during five surveys from 2016 to 2019. Remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video was acquired in 2019 to supervise the classification of the MBES data into habitats. Derivatives of the MBES data were classified into 16 unique biotopes, 6 substrate types, 28 modifier groups, and 22 geoforms. The study area substrate is predominantly soft sediment (mud and fine sand) covering 7,804 km 2 (92.7 percent) of the area. Mixed substrate areas on rocky banks, channel scarps, and the shelf break comprise 404 km 2 (4.8 percent) of the study area. Hard substrate areas are found predominantly on the tops and flanks of banks and on bank ridges that separate canyons incising the banks. Hard substrates comprise 211 km 2 of the study area (2.5 percent). After the bathymetry and backscatter raster images (rasters) were classified, manual editing was also done to remove noise artifacts. This effort was not completely successful and there are numerous erroneous small areas in the rasters that have been passed on to the CMECS polygon product. Nearly 120,000 annotations of organisms and their habitat were made from 25 video transects selected from 185 hours of ROV video. In total, 2,714 km 2 of seafloor were successfully assigned to biotopes. Some biotopes were assigned to separate areas spatially distant from the transects that define the biotope. Expected relations between physical habitat and biota such as the number of species and the substrate induration and rugosity were verified. Slope is typically a predictive variable and was used in the classification of habitat, but the ground truth used for biotic component analysis included very little steeply sloping area. Ground-truth ROV operations were reduced by the sea state; additional ground truth could improve the biotic results and increase confidence in the spatial distribution of classifications reported here.

California↗

USGS1995

The ecology of cormorants: some research needs and recommendations

Concerns about Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) have arisen because of their rapid population increase across North America and their economic impact on several aquaculture and commercial fish industries. In spite of the concern for cormorants, little published research is available that addresses either basic population biology questions or management issues. Based on a literature review, I recommend that research be conducted in four areas. First, a large-scale banding and marking program should be initiated so that population models can be used to estimate age- and sex-specific survival and fecundity (as has been done for the Shag [P. aristotelis] in Europe). By marking individual birds, survival and movement rates can be estimated between nesting colonies, which will provide information about potential source versus sink colonies. Second, studies of movements during migration and winter are required. Presently, no data are available on habitat use during migration or on the length-of-stay by individual birds. This has important implications to how cormorants interact with other fish and wildlife species over a broad range. Studies of movements during winter with radio-marked birds should indicate whether the 'problem birds' at aquaculture sites are merely a few specialists. Third, limiting factors, such as contaminants and disease, should receive further investigation, especially in light of recent concerns over the outbreak of Newcastle disease. The relationship between contaminant levels and developmental abnormalities in young cormorants in certain areas of the Great Lakes in Canada and the United States remains equivocal. Fourth, further studies are needed to document the economic impacts of cormorants on Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) and other cultured fishes and to determine ways to reduce predation by fish-eating birds. Mesocosm experiments should be conducted to evaluate how different fish extraction rates affect final productivity of fish. Controlled experiments with different exclusion and scaring devices are needed. With radio-marked birds, it should be determined what the behavioral responses are to the different scaring devises. Also, providing alternative wetland feeding sites in regions of fish farm depredation might alleviate some of the pressure on farmers. Studies with radio-marked birds could evaluate effects of manipulation of 'natural' wetlands on use by birds during the winter period. Finally, any research directed at the Double-crested Cormorant should also evaluate its interactions with other fisheating waterbirds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

The economics of territory selection

Territorial behavior is a fundamental and conspicuous behavior within numerous species, but the mechanisms driving territory selection remain uncertain. Theory and empirical precedent indicate that many animals select territories economically to satisfy resource requirements for survival and reproduction, based on benefits of food resources and costs of competition and travel. Costs of competition may vary by competitive ability, and costs of predation risk may also drive territory selection. Habitat structure, resource requirements, conspecific density, and predator distribution and abundance are likely to further influence territorial behavior. We developed a mechanistic, spatially-explicit, individual-based model to better understand how and why animals select particular territories. The model was based on optimal selection of individual patches for inclusion in a territory according to their net value, i.e., benefits (food resources) minus costs (travel, competition, predation risk). Simulations produced predictions for what may be observed empirically if such optimization drives placement and characteristics of territories. Simulations consisted of sequential, iterative selection of territories by simulated animals that interacted to defend and maintain territories. Results explain why certain patterns in space use are commonly observed, and when and why these patterns will differ from the norm. For example, more clumped or abundant food resources are predicted to result, on average, in smaller territories with more overlap. Strongly different resource requirements for individuals or groups in a population will directly affect space use and are predicted to cause different responses under identical conditions. Territories are predicted to decrease in size with increasing population density, which can enable a population’s density of territories to change at faster rates than their spatial distribution. Due to competition, less competitive territory-holders are generally predicted to have larger territories in order to accumulate sufficient resources, which could produce an ideal despotic distribution of territories. Interestingly, territory size and overlap are predicted to show a parabolic response to increases in predator densities, and territories are predicted to be larger where predators are more clumped in distribution. Our model’s predictions are consistent with many empirical observations, providing support for optimal patch selection as a mechanism for the economical territories of animals commonly observed in nature.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2024

Preparing for today's and tomorrow's water-resources challenges in eastern Long Island, New York

Freshwater is a vital natural resource. Although New York is a water-rich State, the wise and economical use of water resources is needed to ensure that there is enough water of adequate quality for both human and ecological needs—both for today and for tomorrow. Nowhere in New York is this more evident than in Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island, where the public water supply is obtained from the sole-source aquifers located directly beneath the nearly 3 million people who live there. In 2023, in eastern Long Island’s Suffolk County, groundwater was pumped from these aquifers by more than 1,100 public water-supply wells to meet the needs of about 1.5 million people.

New York↗

USGS2023

Pandemic-driven changes in the nearshore non-commercial fishery in Hawai'i: Catch photos posted to social media capture changes in fisher behavior

Using social media, we collect evidence for how nearshore fisheries are impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic in Hawai’i. We later confirm our social media findings and obtain a more complete understanding of the changes in nearshore non-commercial fisheries in Hawai’i through a more conventional approach—speaking directly with fishers. Resource users posted photographs to social media nearly three times as often during the pandemic with nearly double the number of fishes pictured per post. Individuals who fished for subsistence were more likely to increase the amount of time spent fishing and relied more on their catch for food security. Furthermore, individuals fishing exclusively for subsistence were more likely to fish for different species during the pandemic than individuals fishing recreationally. Traditional data collection methods are resource-intensive and this study shows that during times of rapid changes, be it ecological or societal, social media can more quickly identify how near shore marine resource use adapts. As climate change threatens additional economic and societal disturbances, it will be necessary for resource managers to collect reliable data efficiently to better target monitoring and management efforts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity

Poaching is a global driver of wildlife population decline, including inside protected areas (PAs). Reducing poaching requires an understanding of its cryptic drivers and accurately quantifying poaching scales and intensity. There is little quantification of how poaching is affected by law enforcement intensity (e.g., ranger stations) versus economic factors (e.g., unemployment), while simultaneously accounting for imperfect detection. Using extensive data of poaching events (i.e., seizures) and censuses of nine ungulate species across the PAs and unprotected lands of Iran from 2010 to 2018, we developed a single-visit hierarchical (N-mixture) model to accurately estimate annual poaching of Iranian ungulates and to differentiate between social and ecological effects on annual poaching intensity. We found that poaching detectability increased with numbers of ranger stations. A recent surge in poaching (2013–2018) coincides with rising unemployment rate. We estimated that 19,727 ungulates (95% confidence interval 11,178–36,195) were poached across the country during 2010–2018. Poaching intensity was positively related to unemployment rate, road density, and ungulate abundance. Our simulations demonstrated that the Poisson and Negative binomial N-mixture models had adequate performance when the conditions of Sólymos et al. (2012) were satisfied, in particular, when at least one covariate is unique to both the detection and abundance parts of the model. Overall, we suggest that single-visit models offer unique insights into understanding the link between poaching intensity, economic conditions, and law enforcement in large-scale landscapes while accounting for imperfect detection of poaching events.

Biological Conservation↗